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Recruiting: A Historical Perspective

RJ asks:

How does the class look so far compared to most years at this point?

and fellow commenter Max answered:

RJ, at roughly this point in recent years (Stars are per Scout):

’03 – No commits (First was 4-star Jake Long on July 10, 2004)

’04 – 4-star (WR) Morgan Trent committed in February 2003. After that, the first big push was in mid-June, when the Wolverines got verbals from 4-stars Max Martin, Will Johnson, and Roger Allison; 3-stars Chris Rogers, Charles Stewart, and Mike Hart.

’05 – September 2003 commit from 5-star Kevin Grady. As of May 11, 2004, commits included Grady; 4-stars Justin Schifano, Mario Manningham, and Laterryal Savoy.

’06 – As of May 13, 2007, commits included 5-stars Brandon Graham and Justin Boren.

’07 – As of May 5, 2006, commits included 5-star Ryan Mallet; 4-stars Vince Helmuth, Ryan Van Bergen, Martell Webb; 3-star Artis Chambers.

’08 – As of May 17, 2007, commits included 5-star Boubacar Cissoko; 4-stars Dann O’Neill, Elliot Mealer, and Kurt Wermers.

Strictly speaking, at this point (May 2nd), Michigan had only Trent in his year, all but Savoy in ’05, just Graham in ’06, all but Webb and Chambers in ’07, and all but Wermers this past year. For comparison, Michigan currently has the following players committed:

  • 5-star William Campbell
  • 5-star Kevin Newsome
  • 4-star Justin Turner
  • 4-star Teric Jones
  • 4-star Shavodrick Beaver
  • 3-star Fitzgerald Toussaint
  • unranked Isaiah Bell

However, it’s not the strict numbers game that had people worried (until recently), but the class compared to others, including rivals. Michigan State had a very early start to the recruiting class this year, and Michigan’s looked poor in comparison (though very good overall). Michigan State has never had more than one commit at this time in the past 6 recruiting classes.

This year (and perhaps it’s a long-term trend) many prospects (including top guys – 20 of Scout’s 50 5-stars) are committing early. This hurts teams in transition years – such as Michigan – because they have catching up to do in various other areas before they can worry about recruiting ’09 kids. However, with the recent batch of commitments, Michigan is back at pace for the 2009 recruiting class.

Posted under Mail Bag, Recruiting

Recruiting Update 5-2-08

The Board. One formatting note: I changed players’ names to links, so if you want to see previous updates involving a particular player, just click on his name in the main board. Soon I will remove a lot of prospects whom I don’t see mutual Michigan interest with.

Moved to committed:
Shavodrick Beaver. Commitment article from local paper.

Added:
FL RB Jaamal Berry. He has a Michigan offer, though rumors say I should be ready to remove him soon because he will commit to the Bucks.

New Information:
MN WR Fritz Rock. He has apparently had his Minnesota offer pulled. He is a candidate for removal in the not-so-distant future.
SC DE Chris Bonds plans to take a Michigan official visit, and will decide around Christmas. He is also Adam Patterson’s HS teammate, which I guess might be obvious, but I hadn’t realized until just now.
OH OL Chris Freeman. He is still wide open, and will visit LSU this month.
MI WR Cameron Gordon. Fluff.

Removed:
A bunch of QB recruits who aren’t guys that Michigan would likely take as the third guy in a class, and didn’t have offers yet (and would be unlikely to move to other positions).
FL QB Eugene Smith
IN QB Morgan Newton
IN QB Jordan Luallen
MS QB Clayton Moore
TX QB Kolby Gray
IL QB Darwin Rogers
MO RB Ronnie Wingo. No mention of mutual interest in any articles.
Dangerously close to removing MI TE Reid Fragel, who Michigan only wants at OT, and apparently wants to stay at TE.

Etc.:
Nice Rivals video piece on the QB commits. Freep article on same. Also from Rivals: article on Nike camp, featuring lots of UM recruits.

Posted under Recruiting

Recruiting Positions of Need

Coming into the 2009 recruiting season, the biggest need for Rich Rodriguez was the quarterback position. With a few QBs on the 2008 roster, but only one being a dual-threat who is capable of running his system effectively, he needed to get at least one run-pass signal caller, and preferably more. With a highly-ranked QB in Kevin Newsome, and now a second player in Shavodrick Beaver, the quarterback position is solidified, and it could become a strength if Tate Forcier were to become a Wolverine as well. Coming into the Michigan job, Roriguez also needed several slot receivers, and has seemingly recruited 7,000 of them in his time as a headman in Ann Arbor.

So with issue #1 taken care of, what is left?

The most pressing need becomes defensive ends. While most Michigan fans were banking on Detroit King’s Nick Perry to become a Wolverine, Perry had plans of his own, turning to the more attractive depth chart at USC. This left Michigan with slim pickins behind their starters, one of whom (Tim Jamison) is graduating, and the other (Brandon Graham) a potential early entry candidate for the NFL. Michigan will need players to fill this void, and as of right now, it doesn’t seem like they have a ton of great options.

The next main issue that needs to be addressed is the entire defensive backfield, but particularly safety (when was the last time Michigan landed a bigtime safety?). Isaiah Bell is a pretty speedy guy at safety (he returns kicks for his high school team), and if he doesn’t bulk up and become a linebacker, he can hopefully maintain his speed in the backfield. Justin Turner can either be a very speedy safety, or a pretty big corner (for now, I think he is more likely to stay at corner).

The biggest need once safety is addressed is (finally) something on offense. The line has been hit hard by graduation and defections. Though there is a large class coming in, Rich Rodriguez has said he likes to have 16 O-linemen on the roster, and there are currently only 14, which leaves room for 2, and possibly more if Rich Rodriguez can land some top guys.

Posted under Personnel, Recruiting

Mea Culpa

I heard about the Bryce McNeal MySpace yesterday during the day, and was like “ok, whatever. Recruits’ Myspace pages are not ‘news’.” Then, last night, I received a tip from a reader that McNeal was indeed going to commit today. I told him thanks and I’d wait until it hit something a little more mainstream (while figuring that the teaser I posted was vague enough that it could refer to anyone).

This morning when I woke up, I had several e-mails telling me that MGoBlog was reporting that McNeal was a commit. With no front page news on either pay site, I was skeptical, but decided it was worth running. I changed the article to be entirely speculative about everything other than McNeal’s telling of Facebook/MySpace friends (which did, in fact, happen), and run the story.

When the story turned out to not be true, instead of removing a post (and the associated comments), I decided to give an update that the information within it had been discredited by sources with much more inside information than I have (Tom Beaver of GoBlueWolverine). I figured this would be in the best interest of the kid, and I would sacrifice not giving premium information (which the non-commitment ironically classified at the time) for the sake of the athletes in question. I’d rather be a jerk for a couple days than a jerk who potentially ruined a kid’s chance at going to the school he wants.

For anyone who is mad that I misled them, or about anything else, I apologize, and will continue doing my best to maintain the journalistic integrity of Varsity Blue.

Posted under Recruiting

Bryce McNeal Goes Blue?

Note: At this point, still a rumor on an internet, seeking confirmation. Update 9:30AM: According to GBW’s Tom Beaver, McNeal has not committed.

Minnesota WR Bryce McNeal (6-1, 180, 4.46) has apparently told friends he intends to give Rich Rodriguez his pledge to become a Michigan Wolverine. If this does indeed come to fruition, “B-Meezy” becomes the eighth member of the 2009 recruiting class. McNeal is an outside receiver with enough wiggle and speed to spend some time in the slot (physically reminiscent of a slightly taller, maybe shiftier, Mario Manningham).

Recruiting Notes
Michigan fans started following Bryce McNeal’s recruitment heavily when he was offered the weekend of St. Patrick’s Day. He originally said he had planned to announce his decision at the Army All-American game, to which he has been invited, but the opportunity at Michigan was too much for him to pass up. McNeal visited Michigan on Monday, March 24th on his way home from the Akron 7-on-7 camp. On March 25th, he told GopherHole that he had a Top-5, but the only schools that he was going to reveal from it were Michigan and Minnesota. At this time, it was assumed that Michigan was his leader, with Minnesota in second. Though he didn’t manage to make it to Ann Arbor for Michigan’s spring game, he had planned to visit the next weekend (which also fell through). McNeal waited to make his decision until Michigan had a quarterback locked up for 2009, and when they got the top player on their board (and another good prospect at the position), McNeal was apparently ready to commit to Michigan.

Player Notes
In 2007 he had 33 receptions for 670 yards and 8 touchdowns at Breck high school, where the base offense was a version of the spread that he will be running at Michigan. He has also gotten some attention for track, but it is unknown whether he will try to compete in both sports in college. He is a speedster with good hands, though he will have to add some muscle to compete at the Division-I level. McNeal was invited to attend the Army National Junior Combine in January, where was named to the all-combine first team. Despite this acclaim, he was listed as a three-star player on both sites, but his ranking went up to more reasonable levels after the latest round of re-rankings from each site.

Video

Miscellany
One more interesting fact about McNeal is that his girlfriend, Tayler Hill, is a basketball prospect. McNeal has hinted in his interviews that the two might like to attend school together, but women’s hoops recruiting info is so (oddly) hard to find that I haven’t been able to unearth whether she has interest in Michigan or not. She is a top prospect, and a commitment would help out Michigan’s hoops team greatly. That said, I’d be surprised if one of the top prospects would pick a school that can’t even win the NIT (at least they can get there. ZING!).

Posted under Recruiting

New Scout Rankings Debut

A few items of interest for Michigan fans. If you see anything else noteworthy, let me know.

Commits:
Kevin Newsome up to 5-star
Shavodrick Beaver up to 4-star (at WR)
Teric Jones up to 4-star
Fitzgerald Toussaint up to 3-star
Isaiah Bell still not ranked

Prospects:
Gabe Lynn up to 5-star
David Oku up to 5-star
Morgan Newton (who we will likely not pursue) up to 5-star
Bryce McNeal up to 4-star (#15 WR)

Posted under Recruiting

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Good News on the Way?

I have received reliable information that there is good recruiting news on the way. In a very good couple of weeks of commitments, this could just add to the great season so far. More information as it becomes available.

(for a hint: see if there have been any prospects’ myspace page redesigns lately)

Posted under Recruiting