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2008 Opponent Preview: Toledo

Toledo Offense:
QBs
The Rockets had a ton of injury problems at the signal-caller position last year. Aaron Opelt, now a true junior, was the primary starter, but he missed time in several games. Backup Clint Cochran, now a 5th-year who is listed on the roster but not the depth chart, played until he was injured as well. DJ Lenehan had been expected to redshirt, but now enters the 2008 season with a few starts under his belt. Depth will be provided by JC transfer Alex Pettee.

Statistics:

Toledo Quarterbacks Passing 2007
Name Comp Att % Yds TD Int Yds/Att
Aaron Opelt 144 249 57.83 1756 12 7 7.05
DJ Lenehan 61 95 64.21 630 4 4 6.63
Clint Cochran 33 61 54.10 408 1 4 6.69
Toledo Quarterbacks Rushing 2007
Name Att Yds TD Yds/Att
Aaron Opelt 46 156 4 3.39
DJ Lenehan 18 35 0 1.94
Clint Cochran 12 -68 1 -5.67

Analysis:
If nothing else, the injuries to Toledo quarterbacks have prepared the backups to get some playing time in the future. Opelt is the main guy here, but the Rockets are prepared if he goes down. He is the most mobile threat of the bunch, and his passer rating wasn’t that much lower than the likes of Chad Henne in 2007 (albeit against much weaker competition). He should be able to sling it pretty well this year.

RBs
Toledo loses last year’s leading rusher in Jalen Parmele. Returning is their second leading rusher, redshirt junior DaJuane Collins. After QB Aaron Opelt, true sophomore Gordon Warner was next in rushing for the Rockets. Behind them, little-used redshirt sophomore Jason Washington and used-even-less-frequently true sophomore DeAndre Ware bring the depth. Adonis Thomas redshirted last year, and should be able to jump these two on the depth chart.

Statistics:

Toledo Running Backs Rushing 2007
Name Att Yds TD Yds/Att
Jalen Parmele 276 1511 14 5.47
DaJuane Collins 99 636 7 6.42
Gordon Warner 23 126 3 5.43
Jason Washington 4 20 0 5.00
DeAndre Ware 3 14 0 4.67
Toledo Running Backs Receiving 2007
Name Att Yds TD Yds/Att
Jalen Parmele 17 157 1 9.24
DaJuane Collins 11 69 0 6.27
Gordon Warner 1 12 0 12.00

Analysis:
Parmele carried the vast majority of the load for Toledo last year, and losing a drafted player will certainly not help the ground game this year. Collins and Warner will likely get a more even share of the carries than the #1 and #2 have for the Rockets in the recent past, but it is unlikely that they will be able to perform to the level that Parmele did in the past couple years. Expect a big dropoff at the top, with some compensation in the form of better depth behind the top couple RBs.

Receivers:
The leading receiver for Toledo last year returns in the form of redshirt junior Stephen Williams, a second-team all-conference selection. Redshirt senior Nick Moore was directly behind him, followed by a host of now-departed players in TE Chris Hopkins, as well as WRs Andrew Hawkins and David Washington. Senior John Allen will now start at the TE position (backed up by redshirt junior Tom Burzine), and redshirt freshman Tom Cortazzo, who was second string last year but did not play, will man the third WR spot. RS junior Robin Bailey will be a backup at wideout, but several players who didn’t receive playing time last year will have to step up now.

Statistics:

Toledo Receivers 2007
Name Rec Yds TD Yds/Rec
Stephen Williams 73 1169 7 16.01
Nick Moore 60 731 8 12.18
Chris Hopkins (TE) 27 247 2 9.15
Andrew Hawkins 29 246 0 8.48
David Washington 9 130 0 10.95
John Allen (TE) 10 61 0 14.44
Robin Bailey 2 20 0 10.00
Tom Burzine 1 11 0 11.00
Toledo Receivers Rushing 2007
Name Att Yds TD Yds/Att
Andrew Hawkins 11 54 1 6.14

Analysis:
Toledo didn’t spread the ball around as much as many teams do, with their top 2 receivers getting the vast, vast majority of the receptions. With the next three behind them (in addition to the leading receiver at RB) gone, they may take an even larger proportion. While most smaller
schools tend to have short, speedy guys, the Rockets have starters who are 6-1, 6-4, and 6-5. Michigan’s corners will have to use good technique and superior athleticism to keep toledo from going over the top.

Line:
Along the line, Toledo’s returners all come on the interior. True sophomore right guard Kevin Kowalski started most of the season at the position past year, as a true freshman. Center Buster Garrett is a redshirt junior, and he started several games at the position last year. Projected left guard Jared Dewalt is a true junior who gained starting time at right guard his freshman year, then started at right tackle most of last year. The tackles ar both new, with redshirt freshman Mike VanderMeulen taking over on the left side, and redshirt sophomore Chris Meenan, who got playing time in 8 games last year, on the right. The backups are generally inexperienced freshmen, except right guard Patrick Dawson, a senior who has been the primary backup for the past 3 years.

Analysis:
New tackles could mean that Aaron Opelt ends up on his back a lot. However, both of their new guys are good-sized, and the Rockets are hoping they can protect Opelt. With the new outside linemen and a new starting running back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see rush yards go down and sacks go up. Opelt’s escapability is the wildcard in that equation.

Offensive Analysis:
Losing your leading rusher, an NFL draft pick, has to hurt the Rockets. If Opelt can stay healthy this year, Toledo will probably toss the bal around a bit more than they did last year, though several of the top targets are no longer in blue and gold. This year should be a rebuilding one for the Toledo offense, but they should come on strong in 2009 with only 1 starter a senior this year. 2008 will also be a transition year to a new offensive coordinator, which bodes poorly for this campaign, but well for ’09.

Toledo Defense:

Defensive Line:
Sean Williamston returns to the Rockets after being injured for the entire 2007 season. The redshirt senior will start at one defensive end spot. At the other spot, a sophomore phenom-of-sorts in Alex Johnson, who led the DL in tackles last year, will start. This displaces former starter Doug Westbrook, but I can’t imagine Johnson not starting after the year he had (and neither is close to large enough to move inside). Art the tackle spots, junior Skylaar Constant will man one starting position. The true junior got 7 starts last year. At the other spot, true junior Maurice Hill and true senior Alfred Martin will duke it out for the starting nod.

Statistics:

Toledo Defensive Line 2007
Name Tackle TFL Sacks
Alex Johnson 51 4.5 1
Bernard Faithful 45 5 2
Skylaar Constant 33 3 1
Tyree Pollard 28 3.5 1.5
Maurice Hill 27 3 0
Joe Underwood 16 3 1
Alfred Martin 9 2 0
Nate Cole 9 0 0
Douglas Westbrook 5 0 0
Nick Lawrence 3 0 0
Justin Collins 2 0 0
Marlin Parker 2 0 0

Analysis:
With two positions not entirely settled going into the fall, Toledo should have a fair amount of depth. Their DL is very light, however (heaviest projected starter is 6-2, 282), and they may be pushed off the ball with relative ease by a team with the talent of Michigan. The inside run should be a vulnerability, and the ends are closer to pinebacker size than they are to true run-stuffers.

Linebackers:
The Rockets run a 4-2-5 defense, but for the sake of my sanity, the rover shall be considered a linebacker. Returning at that position is Toledo’s leading tackler from last year, now-junior Lester Richmond. At the linebacker positions (not sure of the nomenclature in a 4-2-5. Middle and weak?), Keith Forrestal will come back for his senior season, but the other starter from ’07, the Rockets’ second-leading tackler in Greg Hay, has graduated. Stepping in will probably be Archie Donald, a junior who started half the games his freshman year, but was out for last season with academic troubles. The backups at linebacker all have
some starting experience, and juniors Beau Brudzinski, Derrick Summers, and Joe Shuler (rover) should not be huge liabilities when they spell the starters.

Statistics:

Toledo Linebackers 2007
Name Tackle TFL Sack
Lester Richmond (rov) 97 1 0
Greg Hay 96 8 0.5
Derrick Summers 58 2 0
Keith Forrestal 45 1.5 0
Beau Brudzinski 39 3 0
Joe Shuler (rov) 14 0 0
Terrell Willis 13 0 0

Analysis:
The 4-2-5 defense is designed to stop spread attacks, replacing a true linebacker with a hybrid LB/safety. Toledo runs such a system, but it remains to be seen whether it is effective against high-talent spread teams. Behind the primary backups, Toledo returns virtually nobody, so they may try to get a bit more depth developed this year. The return of Archie Donald give Toledo a pretty athletic LB to counter Forrestal’s bigger size.

Defensive Backs:
Toledo returns four starters at defensive back, and has enough quality players that one of the returners wasn’t even able to hold onto his starting spot in the spring. At corner, junior Walter Atkins returns as a starter, and Desmond Marrow, who redshirted last year with a foot injury, wrested the starting spot away from true sophomore Myshan Pettis in the spring. This means the Rockets will have 3 quality corners. At the safety positions, junior Barry Church may be the most celebrated player on the team. The junior strong safety has been first team all-conference the past two years. At free, senior Tyrell Herbert, who started his freshman and sophomore years before being limited due to injury last year, gets the starting nod. His backup is the lanky (6-2, 166) junior Chris Murphy.

Statistics:

Toledo Defensive Backs 2007
Name Tackle TFL Int
Barry Church 92 6 3
Walter Atkins 70 3.5 0
Myshan Pettis 41 1 3
Greg Harris 26 0 1
Drey’Lon Pree 19 0 2
Tyrrel Herbert 5 0 0
Anthony King 3 0 0
Nigel Morris 1 0 0

Analysis:
There is plenty of experience in the defensive backfield (despite not that many players, all of the top guys return plus Marrow), and surprisingly good size for a MAC team. The starting corners are 6-1 and 6-3, and both safeties are 6-2 and near 200 pounds. Church is the best of the bunch, and look for him to make most of the tackles. Toledo won’t be as susceptible to the passing game as you might expect, with their defensive style and experience in the secondary. However, the number of tackles Atkins made leads me to believe he’s far from a lockdown corner, as opposing quarterbacks neither feared throwing it his way nor failed to complete the passes they hurled in his direction.

Defensive Analysis:
The Toledo offense certainly doesn’t rely on the blitz game. Almost no sacks and very few tackles for loss came from the linebackers or secondary. For that matter, the linebackers didnt’ seem to do a ton in coverage either, registering no interceptions. Toledo instead relies on D-linemen to create pressure (both on the q
uarterback and for the opposing run game), linebackers to control the run game, and defensive secondary to take care of the pass. The latter should be the most successful this year, unless the d-line does nothing to get pressure on the QB.

Special Teams:

Kicker Alex Steigerwald returns after two solid years as the starter. Toledo loses punter Brett Kern, and he will be replaced by redshirt freshman Bill Claus. Return duties will have to be accounted for as Jalen Parmele handled them last year.

Statistics:

Toledo Kicking 2007
Name FGM Att % Long XPM Att %
Alex Steigerwald 13 13 100.00 44 44 47 93.62
Toledo Punting 2007
Name Punts Yds Avg
Brett Kern 52 2399 46.13

Analysis:
Kicking won’t be a liability, but the return game and punting could pose some problems for the Rockets.

Overall Analysis:
It’s so tough to do a final evaluation of teams like Toledo, because it’s so tempting to say “also, none of that mattered because their a MAC team and they played approximately nobody.” However, Toledo was really inconsistent last year, getting housed by Central Michigan, beating 1-AA Liberty by one point (better than Michigan could against a 1-AA team hur hur), and also doing things like hanging 70 on Northern Illinois and 52 on Eastern. It seems that Toledo should be a middle-of-the-pack MAC team, struggling against good compeition.

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On Gimmick Offenses

A little while back, there was a good post on Burnt Orange Nation about Texas Tech, and how a “gimmicky offense” doesn’t inherently lead to a team having poor defenses. Of course, the reason I bring this up is because of the perception that Rich Rodriguez run a gimmick offense himself, and the fear that this wouldn’t work at a high level.

Essentially, the theory goes: (1) offenses can be enginnered[sic] to take advantage of inferior athletes much more easily than defenses. (2) defenses require great athletes to be great. (3) it’s very hard to recruit great athletes to Lubbock, Texas. (4) therefore, Leach’s offenses have outpaced his defenses. Look around college football at the mid-level programs that have over-achieved in the past 10 years. What do they all have in common? Explosive offense; spotty defense.

This holds true for West Virginia to a certain extent as well. While Rodriguez’s recent success enabled him to recruit better players to Morgantown, WV, it was the Mountaineer offenses that became known around the nation, not the defenses. Recently, the defensive was able to improve based on the success of the team overall. Obviously, Michigan has been a national power, and will not have the same recruiting difficulties as Texas Tech or West Virginia.

If any of you have read the Blind Side by Michael Lewis, you’ll recall his discussion of Bill Walsh’s innovative West Coast offense. Well, NOW it’s called innovative. Back when it was introduced, it was thought of as gimmicky and voodoo. Sound familiar? Then Walsh (who himself said that defensive prowess depends primarily on having great athletes and smart football players, not a scheme) and his 49ers got a defense and won a few Super Bowls and now teams freely use the West Coast Offense as a viable system.

Of course, Michigan’s defense is expected to carry the torch in year one while the offense plays catch-up, so will the Rodriguez spread simply considered “innovative” rather than “gimmicky” in no time flat?

Leach could have been content with Tech being a mediocre team that loses to good teams with better players and beats the teams it’s supposed to. But he instead created a system that allowed his inferior players to beat the best on any given Saturday. Unfortunately for Leach, however, if his offensive system isn’t working, Tech can lose to teams that have even more inferior talent than it. Why? In short, no damn defense.

Of course, a lack of offense explained the WVU loss to Pitt, but it wasn’t because they had “no damn defense” (Pitt only put up 14 points). The lack of the system working and special teams blunders (due to Pat White’s injury and missing three field goals, respectively) were to blame here. With ability to recruit better backups and, presumably, special teams players than West Virginia, hopefully Michigan can avoid upsets of this nature.

In the end, it comes down to Michigan having a “decided schematic advantage” over the opponents (note: actual advantage, not Weis-labeled advantage) on offense, without the defensive difficulties that a team like Texas Tech or West Virginia may encounter. With an effective offensive system and the ability to recruit high-caliber defensive recruits, the sky is the limit for the Wolverines.

Posted under Coaching

Lawsuit Ordeal Comes to an End

Per ESPN and the News, Rich Rodriguez has agreed to pay the full $4 Million buyout, but without having to pay any interest or legal fees to West Virginia.

This should resolve the issue, and I wonder if West Virginia fans will ease the vitriol towards their former headman, now that he isn’t engaged in legal wrangling with his alma mater. I kinda doubt it (I think their anger was over being dumped by Rodriguez, and the suit gave a good excuse), but we shall see.

At any rate, this should be the end of the entire ordeal, and everyone associated with Michigan football can stop worrying about this, and focus on football.

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The Grady Punishment

For the first time in a while, the sports media are somewhat abuzz with talk of the Michigan Wolverines. Of course, I’d prefer them to discuss anything other than the potential punishment of a player, but such is life.

So why is everyone talking about how stiffly Kevin Grady is going to be punished? Because nobody knows exactly how severe the potential punishment will be. Grady is the first player to have a (public) misstep since Rodriguez took the helm in Schembechler Hall, and with such model citizens as Adam Jones and Chris Henry on his resume under the “former players” heading, there is a certain curiosity about what he will do to Grady, morbid though it may be.

The proposals range from doing nothing (as Ohio State fans think will happen, for some reason), to kicking Grady off the team. Jeff Chaney, a columnist for the Grand Rapids Press, said today on the radio that he thinks the latter is the most appropriate and likely outcome. Naturally, I disagree.

The logic Chaney followed was this: Grady is a third-teamer, and therefore must serve as an example to the rest of the team. Of course, this doesn’t take into account that making an example is widely thought of as a terrible idea. Nor does Chaney realize the modus operandi of the Rich Rodriguez staff. Just as upperclassmen and projected starters were not cut any slack in the training room, why should Grady’s status as a non-starter (which Chaney infers, rather than actually knowing) mean that he has less leeway with the coaches?

In rodriguez’s world, that isn’t how it happens. The most likely scenario is that Grady is punished during the summer, and possibly suspended for a game or two in the fall.

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2008 Opponent Preview: Illinois

Illinois Offense:
QBs
Juice Williams was expected to make a huge leap between 2006 and last year, and while his stats increased considerably, he was still the second least efficient passer in the Big Ten. The redshirt junior has the added benefit of being a runner first, passer second, which should open up more passing lanes, but this didn’t seem to help him enough. Backup Eddie McGee logged significant playing time last year, and the redshirt sophomore is faster than Juice (if not as electrifying).

Statistics:

Illinois Quarterbacks Passing 2007
Name Comp Att % Yds TD Int Yds/Att
Juice Williams 153 267 57.30 1743 13 12 6.53
Eddie McGee 29 55 52.73 444 2 3 5.92
Illinois Quarterbacks Rushing 2007
Name Att Yds TD Yds/Att
Juice Williams 165 755 7 4.58
Eddie McGee 31 186 2 6.00

Analysis:
Unless Williams or McGee manages to make huge strides towards being a better passer, the Illini will continue to rely on their veer-option attack, only going to the air when necessary. Without a talented back like Rashard Mendenhall to take off some of the heat, they will be relied upon to carry more of the load. If they can’t do it, the quarterback position could be a big liability for Illinois in 2008.

RBs
Last year’s leading rusher was team leader Rashard Mendenhall. He left early for the pros, and has since said some unkind things about Ron Zook (likely because of Rashard’s older brother, Walter, not getting any playing time with the Illini). Junior Daniel Dufrene, who was a junior college transfer, will start in the backfield this year. Redshirt freshman Troy Pollard, who was injured last year, is the tiny (5-8, 180) speedy type. True freshman Mikel LaShoure, who participated in spring ball, will likely be the third stringer. Paving the way will be redshirt freshman Darius Purcell, as the Illini lost fullback Russ Weil as well.

Statistics:

Illinois Running Backs Rushing 2007
Name Att Yds TD Yds/Att
Rashard Mendenhall 262 1681 17 6.42
Daniel Dufrene 47 294 2 6.26
Troy Pollard 23 148 0 6.43
Walter Mendenhall 4 57 0 14.25
Russ Weil 7 29 0 4.14
Justin Ijel 3 6 0 2.00

Illinois Running Backs Receiving 2007
Name Att Yds TD Yds/Att
Rashard Mendenhall 34 318 2 9.35
Russ Weil 2 34 0 17.00
Troy Pollard 1 10 0 10.00
Daniel Dufrene 3 9 0 3.00
Rahkeem Smith 1 8 0 8.00

Analysis:
Losing Mendenhall is a huge blow. The Illini have tons of production to replace, and very little proven talent to do it. They have a couple of different style of back to give it a try, though I think that they wouldn’t excel even in tandem. Fortunately, Illinois’s unique scheme allows for other players to get a lot of offensive touches, which will help the RBs produce. Pollard was more effective before the injury last eyar, but he lacks the size to be a feature back.

Receivers:
Sophomore Arrelious Benn was Illinois’s go-to target last year, and his lack of touchdowns is more a product of Illinois’s passing ineptitude than any receiving deficiency by him. He broke several tackles to find the endzone against Penn State, and only Rashard Mendenhall was within 20 receptions of his production. True junior Jeff Cumberland is a TE/WR hybrid who typically plays away from the line. The other starting wideout is senior Kyle Hudson. he stands only 5-11, and actually had less receptions last year than DB Brian Gamble. The important departing player here is Jacob Willis. Marques Wilson and Chris James add depth. At tight end, ridiculously-named Michael Hoomanawanui is the starter. Fellow junior Tom Sullivan (my dad lolol) is the primary backup.

Statistics:

Illinois Receivers 2007
Name Rec Yds TD Yds/Rec
Arrelious Benn 54 676 2 12.52
Jacob Willis 22 330 3 15
Jeff Cumberland (TE/WR) 12 243 3 20.25
Brian Gamble (DB) 16 170 1 10.63
Marques Wilkins 3 78 1 26.00
Michael Hoomanawanui (TE) 5 64 2 12.8
DaJuan Warren 7 63 0 9.00
Joe Morgan 3 32 0 10.67
Will Judson (DB) 6 30 0 5.00
Illinois Receivers Rushing 2007
Name Att Yds TD Yds/Att
Arrelious Benn 32 158 0 4.94
Jeff Cumberland (TE/WR) 2 42 0 21.00
Brian Gamble (DB) 8 40 0 5.00

Analysis:
Gamble will probably move to offense full-time now, though I think throwing the ball to a couple DBs shows a lack of WR depth. Benn is clearly the star here, and he is electrifying on punt returns as well. If he is healthier than he was last year, it could be a special year, and his mentions on all-conference lists are warranted. The Illini didn’t lose many peple with a lot of receptions, but that’s because they didn’t have any receivers with a lot of receptions other than Benn. Look for Juice to try to spread the ball around a bit more this year.

Line:
At left tackle, senior Xavier Fulton returns. He started out his career as a defensive lineman, and after redshirting in 2006, he started every game at LT last year. At left guard, there is a battle between redshirt sophomores Brandon Jones and Randall Hunt. Each got a pair of starts last year. At center, senior Ryan McDonald returns. He has started every game at the position for the last two years. Last year he was second team all-conference. The right guard will be true junior John Asamoah, who started there last year as well. At right tackle, redshirt sophomore Ryan Palmer is projected to start. He gained some playing time last year as the second-stringer. The Illini have little depth behind the starters, which will be aided by early enrollments from three incoming offensive linemen.

Analysis:
Sack and rushing numbers are hard to compare for offensive lines when the quarterback is equal parts runner and passer. He skews rush yards upwards on scrambles, and is able to escape sacks with his feet. However, this is a fairly experienced unit, and Ryan McDonald should be their leader. The Illini’s rushing game will be more dependent on the quality of the backs than that of the offensive line.

Offensive Analysis:
Illinois was able to keep the ball on the ground last year, as Rashard Mendenhall and Juice Williams were able to run over many opponents’ defenses. With Mendenhall gone, the focus of this offense is completely on Juice. If he can pass more efficiently, there shouldn’t be that much of a dropoff in Illinois’s offensive output. However, if he is unable to keep defenses honest, the lack of a top-notch back will allow opposing defenses to shut down the Illini. Either way, he will likely remain a running QB first and foremost.

Illinois Defense:

Defensive Line:
Leading the defensive line for Illinois are returning starters Will Davis at defensive end and David Lindquist at defensive tackle. The seniors are the most experienced players in the Illini’s front 4, and Davis was a second team all-conference performer last year. At the other defensive tackle spot, redshirt freshman D’Angelo McCray is expected to start. He is massive at 6-4 330, and is likely to be a big run-stuffer. At the final position is Doug Pilcher. He has started almost every game over the past two years, and has provided good pressure off the edge. The backups are generally young, but they have experience, all having appeared in several games for the Illini already.

Statistics:

Illinois Defensive Line 2007
Name Tackle TFL Sacks
David Lindquist 46 7 4.5
Will Davis 41 12.5 9.5
Chris Norwell 32 3.5 .5
Doug Pilcher 25 7 5.5
Derek Walker 22 3.5 2.5
Mike Ware 14 3.5 2.5
Jerry Brown 9 3.5 2.5
Josh Brent 8 2 .5
Antonio James 7 2 1.5
Sirod Williams 6 1 0

Analysis:
Illinois doesn’t depend on their defensive line to make a ton of tackles, but they di
d manage to get to the QB quite a bit. Their primary purpose is to keep the LBs available to make plays. With a much less certain LB corps this year, it will be interesting to see if that role changes. Illinois lost only a couple linemen, and several of the backups got plenty of playing time last year.

Linebackers:
J Leman, All American in both on-field performance and tie selection, is gone, along with fellow senior Antonio Steele. Both started for multiple years, and their losses will be huge. Brit Miller, the only returning starter, is a senior who will be changing positions to take over Leman’s spot in the middle. At the strongside, true sophomore Martez Wilson will take over. He was a very highly-touted recruit coming out of high school, and got some playing time last year. On the weakside, senior Rodney Pittman will take over. Despite his class standing, he has done very little in his career so far.

Statistics:

Illinois Linebackers 2007
Name Tackle TFL Sack Int
J Leman 132 10.5 2.5 1
Antonio Steele 89 5 0 2
Brit Miller 62 8.5 1 0
Martez Wilson 29 3 2 0
Sam Carson III 6 .5 0 0
Rahkeem Smith 6 0 0 0
Anothony Thornhill 4 0 0 0
Rodney Pittman 4 2 1 0
Erique Robertson 3 0 0 0

Analysis:
Unless the defensive line is beastly this year, the ilnebackers should struggle. There is little proven talent to replace Leman and Pittman, and Wilson is the only truly talented ‘backer who has gotten any significant playing time. Miller is a big boy, and Wilson has speed, so they have a good mix of skill sets to defend different types of plays.

Defensive Backs:
Vontae Davis is a very good corner, and the true junior is back after an all-conference season. At the other side is fellow junior Dere Hicks, who started every game last year. Illinois will be counting on several freshmen to serve as backups, which could mean struggles early in the year. At safety, two multi-year starters are gone, and sophomores Bo Flowers and Nate Bussey will step in. Flowers is more mature than most sophs, having played in the minor leagues for a few years. Both safeties have good size, but their backups are also inexperienced.

Statistics:

Illinois Defensive Backs 2007
Name Tackle TFL Sack Int
Justin Harrison 80 0 0 1
Vontae Davis 76 4 0 4
Kevin Mitchell 75 1 5 5
Justin Sanders 57 4 3 1
Dere Hicks 52 1.5 0 2
Marcus Thomas 17 .5 0 1
Tyler Rouse 14 0 0 0
Nate Bussey 9 0 0 0
Bo Flowers 5 0 0 0
Drew McMahon 4 0 0 0
Chris Duvalt 4 0 0 0
Garrett Edwards 1 0 0 0

Analysis:
Two very important safeties are gone for the Illini (as well as their first backup, Justin Sanders). Davis and Hicks are good corners, but there is little depth behind them. Most of the other cornerbacks will be playing in their fifth college game. The defensive secondary has a good chance of taking a step back this year, and with little depth, they will probably be susceptible to exploitation by teams that strive to spread them out.

Defensive Analysis:
Illinois loses a good portion of their best players, aside from Vontae Davis and some of the guys along the defensive line. With new linebackers and safeties, this unit could be suspect. Their passing defense could struggle, though with strong defensive ends a speedy linebacker like Wilson, they seem particularly well-equipped to handle the read-option. Add in the fact that this is one of the few defenses that sees the option on a regular basis, and they could do well against Michigan, unless Steve Threet can excel as a passer.

Special Teams:

Jason Reda departs from the kicker position, leaving the spot for Mike Cklamovski, who was a kickoff specialist last year. Punter Anthony Santella returns. Arreilous Benn was electrifying on returns last year.

Statistics:

Illinois Kicking 2007
Name FGM Att % Long XPM Att %
Jason Reda 16 18 88.89 51 44 45 97.78
Illinois Punting 2007
Name Punts Yds Avg
Anthony Santella 64 2410 37.66

Analysis:
Losing Reda will hurt. He was big-legged and accurate. Santella is a decent but wholly underwhelming punter. Benn should be at least as effective as he was last year if he can stay healthy.

Overall Analysis:
I am personally of the opinion that Illinois ended up being vastly overrated last year, mostly on account of their upset victory over Ohio State. They were a decent team that largely overachieved. Because if this, people will undoubtedly look at their 2008 depth chart and say “lots of returning starters, including QB. They will be at least as good as last year.” I think this is a major mistake (especially since last year’s team shouldn’t be measured only by the 9 games they won). The Illini lost their best player on each side of the ball, and Juice Williams was bad enough last year that there was a quarterback controversy. I see last year as a Penn State 2005 “lightning in a bottle” type year, and think they will be middle of the pack at best this year.

Posted under Analysis

Recruiting Update 7-7-08

In case you missed the update from Friday in your holiday stupor, check it out here. As always, the board is here.

Added:
MI DE Justice Akuezue. Interest, etc.
OH DE Tank Carradine. Michigan is one of his favorites.
FL CB Jayron Hosley. Drawing some Michigan interest.
CA WR Shaquelle Evans. Michigan in his top group.
FL CB Mywan Jackson. Visiting Michigan this summer, with offer.
LA LB Jonathan Stewart. Offered.

New Information:
AL CB Dre Kirkpatrick. Will decide on signing day.
OK RB David Oku. Visiting Michigan for the MSU game (official).

Posted under Recruiting

"Podcast" 7-6-08

For today’s video offering, there will be no recruiting podcast (and there was much sighing). I humbly request that you accept a repost of the basics of spread offense video:

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Big Ten 2009 Recruiting Class Rankings 7-5-08

Action since last rankings:
6-28-08 Indiana gains commitments from Kenny Watkins, Jeremy Gainer, Demetrius Carr, and Ted Bolser. Minnesota gains commitment from Brooks Michel.
6-29-08 Illinois gains commitment from Steve Hull.
6-30-08 Minnesota gains commitment from Dan Orseske.
7-2-08 Indiana gains commitment from Adam Replogle. Penn State gains commitments from Adam Gress and Curtis Dukes.
7-3-08 Indiana gains commitment from Jamonne Chester.
7-4-08 Penn State gains commitment from Christian Kuntz.

New Rankings:

#1 Ohio State – 23 commits
DT ***** Johnny Simon
LB ***** Dorian Bell
DE ***** Melvin Fellows
CB **** CJ Barnett
WR **** James Jackson
MLB **** Storm Klein
MLB **** Jordan Whiting
RB **** Jordan Hall
OG **** Corey Linsley
OT **** Jack Mewhort
S **** Jamie Wood
WR **** Duron Carter
WR **** Justin Green
RB **** Carlos Hyde
CB **** Corey Brown
S *** Bradley McDougald
DE *** Jonathan Newsome
TE *** Reid Fragel
DT *** Adam Bellamy
WR *** Chris Fields
FB *** Adam Homan
LB *** Zach Boren
CB *** Dominic Clarke

Huge week for the Bucks with tons of commits. Their remaining slots are probably reserved for specific guys they know they’ll get (i.e. Marcus Hall).

#2 Michigan – 12 commits
DT ***** William Campbell
QB ***** Kevin Newsome
CB **** Justin Turner
QB **** Shavodrick Beaver
WR **** Bryce McNeal
RB **** Teric Jones
RB *** Fitzgerald Toussaint
WR *** DeWayne Peace
OL *** Michael Schofield
S *** Isaiah Bell
LB *** Jordan Barnes
WR *** Jeremy Gallon

Michigan is waiting for more commits.


#3 Penn State – 15 commits
OT ***** Eric Shrive
CB **** Darrell Givens
DE **** Sean Stanley
OT **** Mark Arcidiacono
S *** Stephen Obeng-Agyapong
S *** Malcolm Willis
S *** Derrick Thomas
QB *** Curtis Drake
C *** Ty Howle
CB *** Stephon Morris
WR *** Brandon Felder
OT *** Adam Gress
RB *** Curtis Dukes
OG * Frank Figueroa
WR * Christian Kuntz

Adam Gress, Curtis Dukes, and Christian Kuntz commit.

#4 Notre Dame – 9 commits
RB ***** Cierre Wood
MLB **** Carlo Calabrese
RB **** Theo Riddick
DT **** Tyler Stockton
OL **** Alex Bullard
TE *** Jake Golic
LB *** Dan Fox
P * Ben Turk
K * Nicholas Tausch

Nothing new for Notre Dame. Is Charlie’s gravity losing its pull?

#5 Wisconsin – 9 commits
DT **** Jared Kohout
OG *** Ryan Groy
DE *** Shelby Harris
QB *** Jon Budmayr
OT *** Zac Matthias
RB *** Montee Ball
TE *** Brian Wozniak
MLB * Chris Borland
OL * Travis Frederick

Wisconsin moves past Michigan State because I give slightly more value (up to a bonus star) to any offensive lineman that Wisconsin deems worthy (and they have 3 so far in this class).

#6 Michigan State – 9 commits
RB **** Edwin Baker
RB **** Larry Caper
SLB **** Chris Norman
WR *** Donald Spencer
DT *** Blake Treadwell
QB *** Andrew Maxwell
WR *** Patrick White
WR *** Dana Dixon
OL * Micajah Reynolds

Solid but not spectacular class thus far.

#7 Minnesota – 8 commits
QB **** Moses Alipate
RB *** Hasan Lipscomb
C *** Ed Olsen
OT *** Josh Campion
WR * Victor Keise
DE * Nick Rengel
OL * Brooks Michel
K * Dan Orseske

Keise, Rengel, and Michel probably low-3/high-2 guys. Kickers are rarely rated very well.

#8 Illinois – 5 commits
DT **** Lendell Buckner
OT **** Leon Hill
WR *** Steve Hull
CB * Joelil Thrash
FB * Greg Fuller

Steve Hull to the Illini.

#9 Indiana – 9 commits
DT *** Adam Replogle
WR *** Jamonne Chester
DE * Josh Keyt
QB * Edward Wright-Baker
S * Nick Zachery
LB * Jeremy Gainer
S * Kenny Watkins
S * Demetrius Carr
S * Ted Bolser

Indiana gets a boatload of commits. Keyt will be a 2-star (he is being brought in as a greyshirt long-snapper), Gainer might end up a mid-to-high 3-star, and the rest will be in the low 3-star range.

#10 Northwestern – 4 commits
QB *** Evan Watkins
RB * Mike Trumpy
DE * Anthony Battle
WR * Drew Moulton

Northwestern is still in on a couple of big-timers. Will they be able to land one?

#11 Iowa – 2 commits
OT *** David Barrent
FB * Brad Rogers

Ferentz’s glory days in recruiting seem to be over.

#12 Purdue – 1 commit
S * Ismael Aristide

Not sure where Aristide will be ranked, but it has to be a more important commit than a long-snapper. He was on the verge of becoming a big prospect before a junior year injury.

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Recruiting Update: 4th of July Edition

Added:
CA QB Tate Forcier. He refuses to stop mentioning Michigan, so it would be inappropriate to not at least include him on the board.
FL QB Eugene Smith. Ditto.
CA OG Michael Philipp. Michigan is interested and he wants to visit AA.
MD DE Jason Ankrah. Offered:

Jason has offers from Illinois, Oregon, Maryland, Nebraska, Michigan, Pittsburgh, Michigan State, Syracuse and others. Jason said he attended North Carolina, North Carolina State, Syracuse and Penn State Junior Days.

New Information:
IL OL Commit Michael Schofield. Linked to his junior highlight video.
VA QB Commit Kevin Newsome. Can’t play on the post-grad team at Hargrave?

“We have a rule that, even if that young man, Newsome, wanted to come to our school, he would have to play on the high-school team. We don’t jump over our high-school team.”

FL LB Brandon Hawthorne. Decision after officials.
AL CB Dre Kirkpatrick. Fluff.

Removed:
NC QB Everett Proctor. Michigan seemed to be offering him as a draw to Xavier Nixon, who has eliminated Michigan.
PA OL Adam Gress. Final 2 doesn’t include Michigan. And also, he committed to Penn State.
IL OL Chris Watt. Wolverines out of his final 8.
PA DT Levi Brown. Committed to Temple.
MS DT Josh Boyd. Committed to Mississippi State.
AZ DE Devon Kennard. Michigan did not make his final 5 (USC, UCLA, ASU, Cal, Texas).

Analysis:
So, uh, any other DTs? At this point, there doesn’t seem to be a high correlation between guys who have offers and guys that Michigan can realistically land. If the coaches want another tackle in this class, I expect to see some more offers go out soon. If they landed somebody like Chris Bonds, he could conceivably move from end to tackle, but there isn’t exactly a glut of DEs, either.

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Programming Update

Thanks to the glory of scheduled posting, I will still be around today and tomorrow with the regular offerings (recruiting update this afternoon, Big Ten recruiting rankings tomorrow). Unfortunately, due to the holiday, there will be no recruiting podcast this week. Have a fun and safe weekend everybody. Don’t fall from 4 stories.

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