Though many believed Kevin Newsome would be the only top-flight quarterback Michigan had a shot at in 2009, California QB Robert “Tate” Forcier has committed to Michigan, filling the void left by the decommitment of Newsome. Forcier (6-1, 190, 4.63) is the younger brother of former UM (now Stanford) QB Jason Forcier. For the most inside of all the information on Tate, check out his family site. Forcier plans to enroll in January at Michigan.

Player Notes
Forcier is a pass-run quarterback who is a much better fit for this UM system than his brother was for the old one. Forcier switched schools entering his sophomore season to avoid starting over his older brother Chris (now at UCLA). Tate is a pass-first dual threat quarterback. For those worrying about a lack of speed, it may be comforting to know that he had more rushing yards than Kevin Newsome as a junior. Tate is a little bit short (around 6-1), and his arm strength is not elite. However, he is fairly fast (faster than his former Wolverine brother), and his arm is very accurate. For the Scouts, Inc. evaluation of Tate, check out his site. One thing to keep in mind about Tate is that he has had a private QB tutor for much of his football-playing career, so his floor is very high, but he may be close to his ceiling as a passer.

Recruiting Notes
Like his older brother before him, Tate Forcier grew up a fan of the Michigan Wolverines. This gave Rich Rodriguez and company a leg up in his recruitment. However, with a family member leaving the program just a couple of years before Tate would enroll, it was unclear whther there would be hard feelings towards the Michigan program. Forcier was offered early in the process, when Russell Shepard and Kevin Newsome were the only other signal-callers holding offers from Rich Rodriguez. Speaking of offers… Tate posted all of his online (and it was really annoying to Google him every day and see that another hack columnist around the country had noticed). However, Tate said he wouldn’t start trimming his list until the Pryor situation was resolved. When Pryor picked against Michigan, many thought Pryor’s other “finalists,” Penn State and Michigan, were among Forcier’s top schools (along with Oregon). Before Kevin Newsome committed, he and Tate talked on Myspace about attending school together. When Shavodrick Beaver also gave his word to become a Wolverine, Tate was not to be dissuaded, still speaking highly of Michigan. When Kevin Newsome decommitted, Forcier was almost immediately in town for an official visit to the Utah game. Shortly after, Forcier made the decision to pull the trigger and commit to Michigan.

Video

Junior year part 1

Junior year part 2

Posted under Recruiting

QB Comparison:

Though Threet’s stats are worse than Sheridan’s, most people who watched the game would agree that Threet looked to be the better of the two QBs in this game (this is like saying “the less painful way to get hit in the nuts with a baseball bat”). There are several factors that account for this.

• After the first scoring drive, Sheridan went from competent (started the gane 11/13) to sucky (went 0/6 the rest of the way).
• Nick Sheridan threw an ugly interception to close out the half that ultimately ended up deciding the game. He also had an interception wiped out due to a pass interference call.
• Sheridan tried to rip a ball out of McGuffie’s hands after he had already given it away, resulting in a lost fumble.
• Threet’s attempts all came after the ground game was abandoned due to both ineffectiveness and a need to slow down the clock.
• Threet’s touchdown pass was prettier.
• The offense was more effective with Threet in the game.
• Threet seemed to be more poised than Sheridan (oh god, Clausen comparisons ahoy).
• The offense just seemed to be clicking a little more (which is to say: at all) under Threet’s guidance.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steven Threet as the starting QB next week, and I think deservedly so. however, Miami’s defense is not as good as Utah’s, so unless we see major improvement against the RedHawks, the offense could remain ugly all year. There were likely some first game jitters playing a role in the poor QB play as well, so don’t expect anything this bad again, but don’t expect to see Threet or Sheridan threaten for All-conference honors, either.

Rushing Comparison:

Ugly. I think that although the running backs had a pretty bad day, much of the blame falls on the offensive line. The backfield was collapsed on most plays, meaning that the runners had to struggle just to get back to the line of scrimmage most of the time. Brandon Minor had one good looking run, but also a crippling fumble.

Once the offensive line gets a little more used to game shape, and starts playing against less talented D-lines, hopefully they can gel a bit and become more successful. Failing that, we can pray for a midseason return from Corey Zirbel that suddenly makes the line awesome.

Michigan’s 36 yards finished 99th out of the 105 D-1A teams that have played so far this season, tied with Utah.

Defense by Half:
Utah’s total offense in the first half: 303 yards.
Utah’s total offense in the second half: 38 yards.

As Lloyd said (erroneously) after the 2005 loss to Notre Dame: “We may have lost a game, but found a defense.”

After the halftime break, the players realized that the 2008 season started at 3:30 Saturday, and even if they were going to show up a couple hours late, they would just make up for it with an extra-special effor
t in the second half.

I really do believe that Utah has one of the best offenses Michigan will face this year, and certainly among the most balanced. In the second half, they managed to shut that offense down. If anything, I’m disappointed that the game was lost, but I think the defensive improvement over the course of the game is a source of optimism going forward.

Helping the Wolverines
Of course, Utah’s mistakes were a big part of why Michigan managed to keep this game as close as it was. Utah amassed an amazing 137 yards worth of penalties in the game. This makes them the second-in-command for Mythical Penatly-Committing National Champion, behind Texas Tech.

Another note about Utah helping Michigan (though this is also something the defense and special teams earned):
Michigan’s average starting field position: their own 30.9 yard line.
Average starting field position on scoring drives: Utah’s 35 yard line.
The only scoring drive that didn’t begin in Utah territory was the field goal, and even that series began on the 50.

The Incredible Frozen Offensive Line
So, uh what was with the plays where the offensive line didn’t move?

There are two theories:

• It was just a trick play.
• Michigan’s center was trying to catch the Utes offsides.

I believe, at least partially, in theory number 2, since the second time Michigan ran this play, the referees seemed to miss an egregious offsides penalty by Utah’s entire defensive line. It could also be a trick play, but it seems a little counter intuitive to:

1. Trick the defensive line into not rushing.
2. Roll out, away from a presumably non-rushing defensive line.
3. Throw a fade route, designed to hope that the DB doesn’t notice the play has started, when he isn’t really watching the O-line for the beginning of the play anyway.

If anyone else has further insights about this, by al means, speak up.

For this week’s Inside the Play, I’ll be breaking down the Nick Sheridan touchdown pass to Michael Shaw.

Posted under Analysis

A weekly look at how Michigan’s football commitments performed in their high school games. Check back throughout the day, as there may be updates. Also, high school news isn’t particularly easy to come by in all cases. If you were there, or have an article/video that can give more insight, I encourage you to share in the comments.

TX QB Shavodrick Beaver Rider’s season hasn’t started yet, but here’s some preseason fluff.
MI RB Teric Jones Cass Tech wins 37-0. Can’t find an article with stats, but have heard Teric Jones was over 100 yards in the first half, and didn’t play in the second.
OH RB Fitzgerald Toussaint Liberty defeats Niles 48-9. Toussaint racks up 209 rush yards and 4 TDs.
FL RB Vincent Smith Pahokee loses to Olive Branch 48-47. Smith ran for 135 yards and 2 TDs on 17 carries. He also was in and out of the game with cramps. More info.
MN WR Bryce McNeal Breck defeats Concordia 27-20. Can’t find any stats for McNeal.
FL Slot Jeremy Gallon Apopka defeats Seabreeze 39-0. Gallon ran for nearly 200 yards in one half.
IL OL Michael Schofield Sandburg wins 17-14. Can’t find any stats for the game.
MI DT William Campbell Cass Tech wins 37-0. Can’t find an article with stats, but DTs rarely rack up big numbers anyway.
LA DT DeQuinta Jones Bastrop dominates a pair of scrimmages. No mention of Jones.
IN LB Jordan Barnes Homestead loses to Warsaw 29-22. No stats article.
FL LB Brandin Hawthorne Pahokee loses to Olive Branch 48-47. No specific mentions of Hawthorne, but “Several defensive players were angry with themselves over missed tackles, the worst of which happened on Olive Branch’s go-ahead touchdown.” Hmm. More articles.
FL S Mike Jones Edgewater’s season starts Friday.
OH S Isaiah Bell Liberty defeats Niles 48-9. No stats given for Bell.
OH CB Justin Turner Washington loses to Jordan (UT) in the Herbstreit Classic. Turner finished with 128 rushing yards. UPDATE: Article here. 17-14 loss (under somewhat sketchy circumstances), Turner had 128 on 23 carries.
TX CB/WR DeWayne Peace South Grand Prairie lost 38-0. Peace had 7 receptions for 78 yards, ad one rush for a loss of 7.
TX K Anthony Fera Pius wins 38-20. Fera kicks a 39-yarder and hits 5 extra points.

Well, that’s what I found. Time to help out, readers. If you happen across an article about any of these guys’ games, drop a link in the comments.

Posted under Recruiting

At halftime, I was trying to think of what I would post about the game. I made a note to find someone getting hit with a football in the nuts on youtube. Unfortunately that was somewhat hard to find (I was a little surprised). I settled on this:

I’m not sure what happened at halftime, (whatever it was, I’m sure Nick Sheridan didn’t feel well after…), but the defense played like it should have all game. In the second half, Utah only had drive over 10 yards (the first of the half where they got a first down on their first play and then got stymied). That’s dominant, but I’m not sure how good Utah is, and how much those low yardage totals are because of the dumb Utah penalties.

The first half was absolutely horrible. It looked like we had a walk-on sophomore starting, no offensive line talent and running backs who were running scared. Seriously, is Nick Sheridan the Jason Gingell of quarter backing? I have to think Gingell was really good in practice. Luckily it only to the staff a half and not 3-4 games to pull Sheridan. The defense seemed to worry more about keeping Johnson’s jersey clean than covering anything between the hashes.

The worst call of the game, and I called it before it happened, was trying to get some points before halftime. Sure it’s ballsy. Nobody could have predicted the defense coming alive like it did, but I could sure as hell predict Sheridan throwing an interception. That was the difference in the game.

Tim has a more thorough recap coming up tomorrow or Monday.

Posted under Analysis

Michigan lost a home game to a MWC team, so you can expect that I’m disappointed/angry/horrified, etc.

However, I have to say I’m actually encouraged by today’s game.

• After the defensive players realized that the season had started, and they should probably, you know, play football, that unit completely dominated.
• The offense was pretty bad. The line was decent for the players that are left one it, but they’ll need to improve over the course of the season if Michigan is going to be successful. The QB was pretty bad, but some of it was first-game jitteriness, and some was being rattled by the QB pressure. There should be an improvement by the QBs next week against a much worse defense.
• The special teams were very good. Nice to see Lopata nail a career-long FG, and see multiple kicks (an extra point and a punt) blocked. What’s scary is that I only see this unit getting better during the year.

Of course, it’s always a disappointment to lose, but I saw it coming, so it doesn’t sting as much as maybe it should. Lowered expectations lead to a happier postgame feeling. If the defense can play all year like it did in the second half, I expect this team to be top-25 quality (even if the record won’t reflect that until much later in the year). If the offense can come around, this could be a decent year in Ann Arbor.

Posted under Analysis

Action since last rankings:
8-23-08 Iowa gains commitment from Brandon Wegher.
8-26-08 Illinois gains commitment from Hugh Thornton.
8-29-08 Michigan gains commitments from Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne.

Also, a programming note: Friday Night Lights might be delayed until Sunday this week because I’ll be working at the game all day today. Shouldn’t matter much, especially since Michigan’s newest commits don’t play until Saturday anyway.

New Rankings:

Posted under Recruiting

Pahokee, FL teammates Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne have both announced their intentions to sign letters of intent to Michigan in February. The duo announced their respective decisions today, instead of their original plan, which had them announcing at their team’s game against Olive Branch (MS) tomorrow. Smith is a 5-9, 170-lb running back, and Hawthorne is a 6-0, 185-lb linebacker who boasts a 4.7 40-yard dash.

Recruiting Notes
Michigan fans first became aware of Pahokee High School when slot receiver Martavious Odoms joined the class of 2008 in February. They quickly learned of Odoms’s younger teammates, including WR Nu’Keese Richardson (Florida commit) and Smith and Hawthorne. Smith was the first of the two added to the board, when he reported in March that he was about to receive a Michigan offer. That offer became public in June, and Hawthorne was added to the recruiting board shortly thereafter, when he placed Michigan in his top two, despite not reporting an offer. In early July, Brandin stated that he wouldn’t make a school decision until after he had taken his official visits. However, in the middle of July, both he and Smith stated that they would announce their college decisions on August 30th at their game against Olive Branch. At the end of July, the duo started dropping none-too-subtle hints that Michigan would be the choice for both Blue Devils. Towards the end of August, both Hawthorne and Smith announced that they had set up 5 official visits, though they still planned to announce on August 30th (an announcement that they subsequently moved forward by one day). With the final choice of Michigan, it is unlikely that they will have spots reserved for them in the class if they still intend to take officials to schools other than Michigan. The runners-up for Smith were Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Tennessee. finishing in second for Hawthorne was Louisville.

Player Notes
Both players may be considered slightly undersized for their positions, though Rich Rodriguez has focused on adding speed to the team first, and will likely worry about size and speed in future classes. Smith projects as yet another RB/Slot combo, with his diminutive stature and decent quickness. Hawthorne is probably going to end up as a weakside linebacker unless he has a pretty significant growth spurt. He will have to add a ton of mass to play linebacker, and hopefully he won’t lose too much speed doing so in Mike Barwis’s program.

Video

Pahokee’s spring game, courtesy of our friends at SoFLAFootball.com. Unfortunately, the video quality is a little too low to get any great detail.

The Vincent Smith Story from PrepTicket.

Etc.
With a pipeline to Pahokee High School now firmly established, Michigan is likely to go after Doral Willis, a top defensive tackle/offensive line prospect in the class of 2010. In addition, Nu’Keese Richardson, who liked Michigan early in the process but is a Florida commit, has expressed interest in visiting Ann Arbor with Smith and Hawthorne this year. Both Smith and Hawthorne have stated that plan to enroll at Michigan in January.

Posted under Recruiting

For the last 9 months, I’ve been obsessively reading everything I can find about the football team. I’ve tried to make it to as many events as possible. I’ve done everything I could to figure out what Michigan is going to look like tomorrow.

I have no clue.

The floor for this team is lower than I want to admit and lower than most Michigan fans have ever experienced. One or two injuries in the wrong places and the Wolverines are conference basement dwellers. The ceiling could be as high as second in the conference. I can’t see Michigan winning more than 10 games (11 with the bowl), but I can also easily see 7-8 losses.

This is something Michigan fans don’t deal with. High expectations dashed to bits by poor performance or predictable play calling, sure. But there’s always that knowledge that Michigan will win most of its games and play in a bowl game, that except for maybe one or two games, they are the better team on the field. I don’t feel that safety net this year.

Maybe that’s why I am more excited for this game than any Michigan game since I’ve been a student. Even the Epic Greatest Game Ever of the Week 2006 OSU game, which lived up to it’s billing. That was big for a game. Michigan vs. Utah is a game for a generation. I get to be in the stands at the biggest epoch in 40 years for arguably the greatest program in college football.

It’s a new, uncomfortable yet envigorating feeling. It’s an amazing time to be a Michigan fan.

And for the love of God, wear a maize shirt.

Posted under Coaching

As I noted in our summer preview of Utah, the Utes are probably going to be among the better teams that Michigan plays this year. Speaking with Daily Utah Chronicle writer Tony Pizza didn’t dissuade me from that position.

Utah has experience on both sides of the ball, and quarterback Brian Johnson is finally healthy after suffering a multitude of injuries over the past two years. The offense should hum along, and the defense should be competent. The run defense appears to be a bit of a weakness for Utah, with a light group of starters on the line. That is probably how Michigan will primarily move the ball, especially with the quarterback situation still not settled.

Marquis Wilson, as predicted in the summer, is suspended for this game (and in fact, the entire year). One other thing that may give Michigan fans a bit of hope is the poor job Utah did defending the option against Navy last year. I predicted that they wouldn’t be able to defend our option all that well before even seeing the stats. Navy ran for 316 yards on Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl, and managed to pass for 122 yards, 30 more than their season average.

The key for Michigan is to get a fast start. If they can get the first score, and a bit of momentum going, they should be able to take control of the game. Even a score on special teams on the opening kick could help make Utah think “Jesus these guys are good!” (Note: I usually think scoring on the opening kick is a disadvantage, because it makes the scoring team complacent. However, I think this Michigan team has something to prove in game one, and Utah may be fearing an obvious talent disparity). Utah has developed something of a reputation for road game chokes against BCS teams early in the season under Whittingham, and any sign that they are in for another round of the same may make the team fold.

Predictions:
Michigan’s offense won’t light up the scoreboard, but they will be surprisingly competent.
Michigan’s defense won’t live up to the 1997/2006-ish expectations that are being thrust upon it.
Michigan walks away the victor (barely) in a fairly low-scoring battle, winning 23-20.

What say you, fair fans of Varsity Blue?

Posted under Analysis

The part with the videos.

Now that we’ve familiarized ourselves with some of Shafer’s credential’s, let’s delve into some tape from last year’s Cardinal and take a look at his schemes (spoiler alert: lots of blitzing).

Shafer runs a multiple-front defense, with a base 4-3. Against spread-type offenses, he’ll use a package called the “3-4 Okie” which, as the name implies, is a 3-4 scheme. The purpose of the Okie scheme is to disguise defenses so the offense can never tell who is actually blitzing on a given play. Often, on of the linebacker positions will be manned by a safety (or a LB/S hybrid) for a sort of 3-3-5 look, but with two safeties high.

4-3
One of Shafer’s favorite blitzes from the 4-3 stack is a dual-OLB fire.

There are also several other blitzes where he will send at least one linebacker, but often more.

3-4 Okie
The design of this package is intended to confuse the offense into not knowing who will rush on a given play. For much more on the Okie, read up on it over at 3 and Out, run by an MGoBlog commenter/high school coach who runs the Okie as his base package.

Risks
While an aggressive defense can help generate pressure on the quarterback, there are also disadvantages. For example, if the defense overpursues, they will be vulnerable to misdirection, such as counter runs and screen passes. In addition, if the pressure package doesn’t get to the quarterback, there isn’t going to be as much help in the secondary. An aggressive blitz scheme can often leave the secondary in man coverage.

When you have the athletes to match up (which Michigan will in most of its games this year), it can work to your advantage. However, it can create mismatches for the offense to exploit.

Losing to the Irish
For those worrying about how Shafer lost to Notre Dame, there is a little bit of reassurance to be had. For one thing, The Irish had a drive that was all of 14 yards, and the other two scoring drives were aided by big plays that were the result of poor execution (or simply not having the talent that Notre Dame boasts), not poor scheming.

Ed. Note: Thanks to Mike Gleeson, Stanford Video Coordinator for the game film, and to VB über-commenter RJ for hooking me up with Gleeson.

Posted under Coaching, Video