The Situation
Michigan leads Illinois 14-10 with about 11 minutes remaining in the second quarter. The Illini have the ball in a 2nd-and-10 situation on their own 43 yard line. Michigan’s offense has been clicking early in the game, and a big stop on Illinois’s potential go-ahead drive would sustain the Wolverine momentum, and possibly springboard another Michigan scoring drive.

The Personnel and Formation

Illinois comes out in a 3-wide spread set, with a tight end on the right side of the line. Two wideouts are to the left. Isiah Williams is in the shotgun, with Daniel Dufrene lined up as the running back to his left. Michigan is running out of its 3-4 Okie nickel package. The corners are playing off, and Charles Stewart is the high safety along with Brandon Harrison. Stevie Brown, Jonas Mouton, Obi Ezeh, and John Thompson are the linebackers. Mike Martin is the pass-rushing DT.

The Play

Michigan is in a cover-3, with both OLBs blitzing. At the snap, John Thompson blitzes, allowing Daniel Dufrene to run right by him. This is unfortunate for Thompson and the Michigan defense at large, as this play is a designed screen (not quite a swing pass, as The Davids – ESPN’s shittiest new announce team – state). Williams lofts the ball over Thompson’s head, and Dufrene makes the catch. He follows his screen blockers, breaks a couple early tackle attempts, and outruns the Wolverines to the endzone.

Why it Worked
John Thompson is the major culpable party in Illinois’s success on this play. In Shafer’s scheme, he is designated to blitz on this play, but has the responsibility to “hug up” on Dufrene if he leaks out of the backfield. It is plain to see Thompson realizes his mistake, as he has an “oh shit” moment, and turns around when he realizes Dufrene has passed him.

This was an effective play call against a blitz, and of course the responsibilities of the blitzers are supposed to compensate for this. Thompson’s fuckup amplified the effectiveness of the playcall.

It’s hard to fault him too much, since he was making sure there weren’t huge cutback lanes in the secondary, but Donovan Warren starts off this play taking a terrible angle. He almost manages to still catch up with Dufrene, and had he taken a better angle, might have stopped this 5-10 yards short of the endzone.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis, Video

Massey of Buckeye Commentary drops by to give his weekly look at Michigan’s game.

Illinois v. Michigan Review

Let me be honest, it is getting very difficult to parse the seldom-traveled road of Michigan this season. I do not know what to say. One moment reveals a nice scramble on third and eight; the next is an inconceivable fumble. I cannot tell if they want to pass or run (I know coaches would say “balanced”), and I don’t know at which they are more proficient. The problems occur on both sides of the ball and they can border on comedy. I am not trying to be incendiary, but I know that at least half of you have chuckled in frustration whenever Michigan fumbles in the most unexpected situations. You are fans. You watch every play with same emotion I do Ohio State and you do not need me to recite their successes and follies. We can all agree that they are inconsistent and leave it at that.

I will continue to mention that actual play on the field, of course, but I may shift my focus to watching the intangibles of the team.

What I saw: I think for the first time this season, I saw a result that would have been similar even if Carr was still coaching the Wolverines and the previous systems and schemes were in place. Michigan just could not stop Juice and co. I could nitpick and mention the bad calls that hurt Michigan, but this was simply the case of the better team winning.

The Wolverines played well initially and the first quarter felt like they had picked up right where they left off against Wisconsin. Odoms was great on returns (despite the late fumble) and his first-half receiving stats were impressive with big gains on the two early scoring drives.

For all intents and purposes, the game ended after Illinois scored on the screen to Dufrene. A perfectly lofted dagger, it seemed to pierce the offense’s hearts as much, or more, than the defense’s. The offensive line seemed to play well early on and the announcers were all over them, but that edge slowly dissipated during the second quarter and the offense eventually became impotent.

The defense generally played well but the tackling would be poor from time to time and Illinois always seemed to capitalize on those missed tackles. The Wolverines best defender was Mesko. His punting consistently pinned the Illini deep. He was Michigan’s player of the game. Seriously.

What I didn’t see: The fourth quarter. I apologize. I know I am supposed to watch the entire game for this weekly exchange but FSU/Miami was really heating up and my football-laden DNA required me to change the channel as watching it via Gamecast was wholly insufficient.

In some ways, what I saw was what I did not see. I did not often see good tackling, pass coverages living up to realistic expectations, or an ability to hold onto the ball. It that thing covered in lard?

What I expect to see next week: Ball State blanked Toledo last weekend and the Rockets appear to have no offense, gaining 157 yards against the Cardinals (somehow they managed 600 yards and 54 points against Fresno State, but that was in overtime). I expect a Michigan win along the lines of the victory over Miami (OH).

I do not expect to be able to draw many conclusions from that game, however, as I am totally incapable of predicting Michigan’s performance game-to-game, half-to-half, or even play-to-play with any degree of accuracy.

What this can tell us about The Game: Most likely, Ohio State will be running a very similar offense to the one Illinois dominated with on Saturday. Will Pryor, Wells, and [insert Ohio State WR] be able to replicate those results? Illinois scored on big plays caused by blown assignments and missed tackles with a sprinkling of bad officiating. If those things magically disappear, the Wolverine defense is formidable.

If Michigan’s offense can perform as they did in the first quarter versus Illinois for the entire game against Ohio State, there is no reason to believe they will not be able to move the ball. We have talked about it before, but the Buckeyes have struggled against running quarterbacks. Threet may be shaky but his best moments are good enough.

I still maintain that this is a dangerous game for Ohio State, especially if the Buckeyes are lucky enough to be playing for a Big Ten Championship. Michigan will have the opportunity to ruin the Buckeyes season and set the tone for Rodriguez’s tenure. They will have to play their best game to win. Would any of you be surprised if Michigan put together their best effort on November 22?

Posted under Analysis

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oklahoma	—
2	Alabama	—
3	Penn State	1
4	Missouri	1
5	Texas	—
6	LSU	—
7	Georgia	2
8	Florida	2
9	Southern Cal	2
10	Brigham Young	2
11	Ohio State	1
12	Utah	3
13	Oklahoma State	—
14	Texas Tech	2
15	Vanderbilt	3
16	South Florida	9
17	Kansas	—
18	Illinois	1
19	Virginia Tech	5
20	Boise State	1
21	Michigan State	5
22	Florida State	1
23	Kentucky	3
24	Pittsburgh	2
25	Northwestern	1

Posted under BlogPoll

Hosted by The Only Game that Matters.

1) Jay Paterno and the Spread HD

What is: maybe JayPa isn’t that bad after all, and Anthony Morelli is just clinically retarded? Obviously, he knows how to craft a functioning offense of some sort. Maybe it was Morelli, not Jay holding the team back in 2006 and 2007.

2) Joe Tiller’s Mustache

What is: the inspiration for Danny Hope’s Mustache?

3) The Color Purple

Please see this video, 15 seconds in:

4) Brains

What is: Joe Paterno’s entire diet? Oh, and Ovaltine. Brains and Ovaltine, yummy.

5) Hawkeye State

Is this supposed to be some sort of reference to Iowa? Hey, I answered in the form of a question and I didn’t even mean to! Either way, both teams in the state of Iowa kinda suck.

6) Rudy

Who is: Shitty midget?

7) Knee Ligaments

What is: the least functional portion of Sean Lee’s body?
(Note: I said least functional, not least used. Interpret that as you will).

8) Terrell Pryor

Why am: I fucking terrified of Ohio State?

9) Mark May

Who is: someone who only appears intelligent because he is alongside Lou Holtz.

10) Rich Rodriguez

Who is: going to terrorize the big Ten within a few years (I hope)?

Posted under Analysis

Posted under Recruiting

1. After the Wisconsin game, fans were jubilant, and expected that Michigan’s offense had finally, permanently snapped out of whatever funk it was in to start the season.

Following Illinois, the exact opposite describes the popular sentiment among Michigan fans.

What’s the real Michigan offense? Somewhere in between. A young unit is going to be very streaky, and as the players gain experience (and guys like Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway return to replace LaTerryal Savoy), the consistency will improve, but it will never operate at the level it was toward the end of the Wisconsin game, at least not on a consistent basis.

2. The rain of fumbles will slow down, even if is isn’t completely eliminated this year. Unless Michigan’s coaches are idiots (and they aren’t), or the players are just terrible (they aren’t), Michigan will not continue to fumble at the rate it has been to this point in 2008. The coaches will work in practice, and seeing as how fumbles are a (mostly) chance occurrence, they will happen with less frequency.

If Michigan is not playing from behind, the players will also force plays less often, and risk ball security in the process.

3. The Michigan defense might not be quite as good as it looked during the Wisconsin game. It might not be quite as bad as it looked during the Illinois game. The real Michigan defense? You guessed it, somewhere right in between.

Coming off an emotional performance against Wisconsin, in which they were on the field for more than 36 minutes, perhaps the defenders were ripe for a letdown performance. After such a physical performance last week, it’s understandable (but no excuse) why there were some missed tackles this week. Regardless, they held Illinois to just 24 points through 3 quarters, but they are not yet ready to carry the offense in every game, especially when they have to overcome 5 fumbles (with 2 lost).

4. Steven Threet actually had a decent game, aside from the fumbled exchange with Shaw, and the pump fake fumble. He had a QB rating of 130.3, which would have been better save a few drops. Running, he wasn’t quite as good as Michigan needed him to be, but there’s always the future for improvement.

5. Despite the losses, Illinois is a pretty darn good team. If Michigan can play as well as they did today (certainly on defense) for the rest of the year, only Penn State and Ohio State are likely to light up the scoreboard as much as the Illini did.

So what does it all mean? Michigan isn’t that good. But you know what? Maybe they aren’t that bad, either. At this point, there’s not much fans can do besides hope for a bowl.

Posted under Coaching

Moved to Committed:

Posted under Recruiting

Matt Vogrich, a 6-3 shooting guard from Illinois, has pledged his word to become a Michigan Wolverines. Vogrich is Scout’s #100 player in the class of 2009. Vogrich joins Darius Morris and Jordan Morgan in MIchigan’s 2009 recruiting haul.

Vogrich visited Michigan this weekend, and enjoyed himself enough to offer a commitment to John Beilein and the Michigan Wolverines. For more information on Vogrich (and much better basketball coverage than I could ever provide), head over to UMHoops.com.

Posted under Basketball

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oklahoma	—
2	Alabama	—
3	Penn State	1
4	Missouri	1
5	Texas	—
6	LSU	—
7	Brigham Young	1
8	Georgia	1
9	Florida	1
10	Southern Cal	1
11	Ohio State	1
12	Oklahoma State	1
13	Utah	2
14	Texas Tech	2
15	Vanderbilt	3
16	South Florida	9
17	Illinois	2
18	Virginia Tech	6
19	Kansas	2
20	Boise State	1
21	Michigan State	5
22	Florida State	1
23	Kentucky	3
24	Pittsburgh	2
25	Cincinnati	1

Games Watched (listed in the order I watched them): Middle Tennessee-FAU, Boise State-Lousiana Tech, USF-Pitt, Utah-Oregon State, Cincinnati-Marshall, Michigan State-Iowa, Penn State-Purdue, Michigan-Illinois, Bama-Kentucky, Ohio State-Wisconsin, Missouri-Nebraska, Minnesota-Indiana, Notre Dame-Stanford, UConn-UNC, Texas-Colorado, Miami of Florida-Florida State.

Anything look wrong? Anything I need to justify?

Posted under BlogPoll

If you know of an article that can help out, let me know. I’ll fill in the remaining game articles/stats as I find the articles. The 2010 commits will not be included in FNL (unless there is substantial demand for it), but I will include a junior season wrap at the end of this year.

UPDATE: Monday, 11:00 AM Article linked for Apopka-Edgewater game, added a pre-game video fluff deal on Gallon and Jones.

CA QB Tate Forcier
This Week: Scripps Ranch v. Serra. Scripps wins 42-35.

Season Totals: Pius 2-1

Posted under Recruiting