This has been a rough year for Michigan fans as streak after streak was broken, as benchmarks of sustained success were missed, as the team lost five straight games and seven of nine overall. What got to me the most was the one step forward, two steps back modus operandi of this team. It seemed as soon as one thing became effective, something else broke. So, every time I saw something that inspired hope, that hope was quickly and forcefully shattered by some mistake or failure.

Maybe it’s because I’ve been telling myself and anyone who will listen that this will work, but I have not really taken stock of how bad this season has been. Before last Saturday, Michigan had won two games by a total of 12 points and lost seven by a total of 87 points. Some of the games were competitive, but in Big Ten play I can’t really say Michigan should have won any of the games that it lost. The Wolverines were outplayed by better teams.

This was all sinking in by Saturday. I was resigned to a loss, even a blowout, against a team that Michigan has, quite literally, historically dominated. Even at half time, I figured the same old script would show itself. If this team has proven anything, it’s that it’s inconsistent. So expected the same old script: three and outs on offense; missed tackles and blown assignments on defense.

This is the first game that I’ve been excited to re-watch since the Toledo sadness happened. That was really when I lost my optimism for this team. Subsequent games made me question next year’s team. But one game made me remember why I was so excited to see this team play in August. What they lack in consistency they make up for in potential.

This offense was an absolute machine on Saturday with one quarterback who doesn’t throw well down field and one quarterback who doesn’t throw; with the worst offensive line any of us are ever likely to see; freshmen at almost every skill position; the top two running backs not playing at 100%. For the first time the offense was able to effectively counter the defense’s adjustments. In the past few games, the original script worked well, but once the defense adjusted, the offense stalled. There were a ton of new wrinkles (e.g. Feagin), some nostalgic wrinkles (e.g. the Braylon Edwards Memorial Diamond Formation), and parts of the basic the scheme that worked better this game than any game previous. This is what we have to look forward to. We got a preview of what this offense will be.

The defense, after giving up 48 points and roughly 6.82×10^23 yards against Purdue absolutely shut down an adequate if not amazing Minnesota offense. The defense was vintage Scott Shafer. The 3-3-5 stack was, as this blog and gsimmons guessed, likely and experiment designed to stop a decent running back (Kory Sheets) because there was a third string quarterback playing. The defense against Minnesota varied between 4-3, 4-3 over and 3-4 okie. The corners played up at the line both on man to man and on basic cover two. The defensive line and linebackers played well as a team and kept the running game contained very well.

My favorite part of the defensive game plan was the 3-4 Okie Chaos on passing third downs. I can’t imagine an offensive lineman or quarterback feels comfortable with 4 stand up potential blitzers moving in and out. I have to go back and look, but I don’t believe that Minnesota picked up a first down in one of these situations. Scott Shafer isn’t just a “press-man coverage and blitz” guy. He uses the threat of blitz just as well as actually blitzing.

This is what this team will become. This game proves that these guys can coach. I don’t care if Minnesota isn’t as good as advertised. The team that showed up and played could hang with most teams in the Big Ten. But when you have the youth and inexperience that Michigan has, it’s irrational to expect consistency game to game and from start to finish. After trying to revel in little victories like converting a third down or a good kick return, it’s nice to see the entire product and revel in a victory that results in win.

We caught a glimpse of what will happen, but the best part is that soon we’ll be living in the future.

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That’s what we’re told almost every time a play is reviewed in college football. “Every play is reviewed.” In the time it took the officials to spot the ball and wind the clock, ESPN had already put on screen conclusive video evidence that Obi Ezeh had possession of the ball and was down.

Some people may say “yeah, but it was a gritty, hustle play by the Minnesota player to get down there and dig the ball out of the pile. That’s football.” To that, I’d say when a player has possession of the football and a knee, elbow, or hip hit the ground, the play is dead. It’s a simple if A then B. We had a situation A, but it was not followed by B.

I don’t blame the officials on the field. It’s a tough situation to call. It happens really quickly and it’s hard to get a good angle in a scrum like that. But that’s why we have instant replay. And Rodriguez shouldn’t have to call a timeout to give them time to do what ESPN did in 10 seconds. Rodriguez shouldn’t have to challenge since every play is reviewed.

What do you think was going up in the booth? The replay official was watching the game in real time on his uber-high def monitors and from that decided there was nothing the least bit questionable? I’m in favor of replays happening when the call questionable, not just when the official thinks he (or she) sees incontrovertible visual evidence. I’d rather break the flow of the game in order to ensure the correct call is made.

The player will show in this paragraph

var s1 = new SWFObject(‘http://www.panel-creations.com/varsity_blue/podcast/vplayer.swf’,’player’,’640′,’480′,’9′);s1.addParam(‘allowfullscreen’,’true’);s1.addParam(‘allowscriptaccess’,’always’);s1.addParam(‘flashvars’,’file=http://www.panel-creations.com/varsity_blue/podcast/worstcallever.mp4′);s1.write(‘preview’);This play didn’t really affect the outcome of the game, but it still gets me. I think even if I was watching a game that I had no interest in, I still would have been a bit angry. I don’t blame the officials on the field; they did as well as they could in a difficult situation. The blame falls squarely on the replay official for not even calling for a replay.

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If you know of an article that can help out, let me know. I’ll fill in the remaining game articles/stats as I find the articles. 2010 updates will come in the form of a year-end wrapup.

CA QB Tate Forcier
This Week: Scripps Ranch v. Mira Mesa. Scripps wins 25-21. Game stats.
Season Totals: Scripps Ranch 7-2.

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You know, in the short run, it has sucked to have a terrible season. It sucked to lose to Utah, Notre Dame, Illinois, Toledo, Penn State, Michigan State, and Purdue. It sucks to know we’re not going to a bowl.

But doesn’t it seem like this year was what the Michigan fanbase needed? Learn to enjoy wins instead of fearing losses. I predicted a loss to Minnesota with my head, but never gave up with my heart.

Damn, does it feel good to have people lining up to kick us while we’re down, then shoving it in their faces. Boy, do I wish I had a screenshot of that empty trophy case.

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Action since last rankings:
11-2-08 Minnesota gains commitment from Kerry Lewis. Minnesota gains commitment from Hayo Carpenter. Purdue gains commitment from Chris Quinn.
11-4-08 Northwestern gains commitment from Davion Fleming. Minnesota loses commitment from Eric Stephens.
11-6-08 Purdue gains commitment from Gabrison Holmes.
11-7-08 Notre Dame gains commitment from Shaquelle Evans.

Lots of commits this week, though nothing changed in terms of team rankings. Notre Dame solidified its grasp on #2 by picking up one of the top wideouts in the country.

New Rankings:

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When I originally previewed Minnesota in the summer, I knew they’d be improved, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted the huge step forward they have taken this year. The Gophers have gone from 1-11 to 7-2, one of the greatest turnarounds in recent history. How have they done it? Mostly through turnovers and taking care of the ball. If Michigan wants to win in the Metrodome tomorrow, they’d best hold on to the rock.

Offense
The majority of Minnesota’s offense goes through QB Adam Weber. Weber is having a so-so statistical year, coming in at 36th in the country in passing efficiency, but it’s what he’s not doing that’s most notable: turning the ball over. Last year, he threw 19 interceptions, and this year he has been picked off just four times. His main target is notable white wideout Eric Decker, who, while nicked up, is expected to play this week. Other notable receivers include Ben Kuznia (also white), DeLeon Eskridge (not white, and also a tailback), and Nick Tow-Arnett (also white, but understandably – he’s a tight end). Aside from Decker, however, it’s not the wide receivers that make the passing game successful, it’s Weber’s distribution that’s paramount. If Decker is still a little banged up, Michigan may be able to take advantage somewhat (he has nearly triple the number of receptions as Kuznia).

In the run game, there were many predictions of doom when Duane Bennett went down against Bowling Green, and was lost for the year. However, DeLeon Eskridge has stepped in and performed admirably. In fact, he’s getting 4.2 ypc, only slightly worse than Bennett’s 4.4, against better competition.Minnesota’s worst rushing games came against Ohio State… Indiana(?) and… Montana State? They’ve gotten worse over the course of the year, and that’s hopefully something the Wolverines can capitalize on.

Defense
The Gophers’ main weapon on defense is the takeaway. They’re currently 1st in the nation in turnovers gained, and 2nd in overall turnover margin. They’re actually at or around middle of the pack by most other defensive metrics, such as rushing defense (53rd), Pass efficiency defense (51st), and total defense (65th), all against a fairly weak schedule. This means that if a team can hold onto the ball, they stand a good chance of moving it down the field against the Gophers. Of course, that means nothing to Michigan, as the Wolverines can’t hold onto the ball to save their collective lives.

The Gophers have faced some fairly anemic offense, but none so bad as that of Michigan. Add in the fact that it is Nick Sheridan expecting to start in place of the oft-injured Steven Threet, and Wolverines fans are likely in for a long day. Of course, turnovers-as-defense isn’t necessarily sustainable, and the Gophers were bad in that respect last year, so perhaps Michigan can get lucky and not turn it over too much.

Predictions
Michigan’s starting QB throws at least 2 interceptions.
Eric Decker cannot finish the game because he is too hurt.
The Wolverines lose the jug, by a score of 31-13.

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Michigan Defensive Coordinator Scott Shafer may be one of the least popular men in Ann Arbor right now, as the Wolverines’ defense is reaching historically bad levels. Though I defended the play of the defensive unit last week, the performance against Purdue was bordering on inexcusable. However, the main recipient of much (often idiotic) blame has been Scott Shafer. Much of the knowledge form this post comes from the all-knowing gsimmons85, without whom I’d know even less about football than I currently do. I assume he’ll be here to comment on this post, so if you have any specific questions that I can’t answer, fire away.

Playing Only 3 Defensive Linemen
The argument is as follows: Michigan has good defensive linemen and bad linebackers/safeties, so you should want to get as many d-linemen on the field as you can, and minimize the number of linebackers and saefties. Au contraire, mon ami. If you have bad defensive backs, you should actually want to play more of them. Why is this? You’re expecting bad players to make mistakes. Therefore, there is somebody to step in and cover for, say, Stevie Brown’s mistake if there are three safeties playing. In most games this year (and the Purdue game in particular – more on that in a second), Michigan would get the same amount of pressure on the quarterback whether there were 3 or 4 defensive linemen in the game. In that instance, why “waste” a player on the field by putting in another end who won’t increase the pressure at all, at the expense of allowing the secondary to be exposed.

Completely Switching Defensive Schemes against Purdue
I still don’t believe that this was all Shafer’s decision, as he’s never really run the 3-3-5 extensively. However, what the headman says goes, and the base defense was indeed changed in the Purdue contest. This was also to get the most help possible for the secondary, as they would presumably need it against a pass-heavy team. One final factor to take into account in this game was the base offense of Purdue. As a spread team, their blocking assignments are much easier when facing an odd front.

Playing Soft Coverage on the Corners
Michigan doesn’t have the cornerbacks to play tight man coverage. End of story. If they were trying to do this (despite their inability), we;d see teams going deep with much greater frequency and success against this team. If Morgan Trent and Donovan Warren were lined up a yard off the line of scrimmage, they would get blown past by opposing wide receivers a lot of the time. This would leave our questionable safeties to save the play, which we certainly don’t want, at least this year. In the future, when Shafer has more of his recruits in position, tight man coverage with a reliance on the safties to prevent big plays will be much more of an option.

Too Much Zone Coverage
This is a similar reasoning: Michigan can’t really cover that many teams in man. Boubacar Cissoko and Donovan Warren are the only ones on the team that are even particularly close to being able to do so. As much of a liability as John Thompson can be in pass coverage, do you really want to see him lined up in man coverage with a tight end or running back? If your answer to that question is anything other than “no,” you are wrong. Unless you are a fan of the opposing team, in which case your answer is “Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.”

Lack of Player Fundamentals
This may be one of the few legitimate gripes against the defense this year. Many of the players lack fundamentals, particularly in the “tackling” department. However, how much of this is the fault of the coordinator? Next to none. Some of the players (i.e. Brandon Graham) are trying to do more than they should to make plays, since they know that their teammates can’t necessarily be counted on. This causes them to miss their assignments. Other players are simply not good physical matches for the positions they are playing at the Division-I level (i.e. Charles Stewart). Even if the coaching is poor, how much of that is on Shafer, and how much rests at the feet of their position coaches? Nearly all. Bruce Tall hasn’t been a defensive line coach since 2002. Jay Hopson spent the last three seasons coaching DBs. With the linebackers and safeties the primary liabilities on Michigan’s defense, they may be at least as culpable as Shafer.

The future is brighter for the defense, however. With such a quick transition to a new offense, little time in the spring was spent working fundamentals with the defense. Rather, they were often acting as a scout team for offensive execution drills, which hindered their learning. With an entire year of learning out of the way for the offense, even the defense should benefit (aside from the offense no longer harming the defense in game situations). Also, Shafer’s second year has been a coming-out party at each of his stops, and next year should be no different. An influx of talent at key positions and a year of coaching up should mean vast improvements for Scott Shafer’s defense next year.

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The Situation
Michigan leads 14-7 with about 5 minutes left in the third quarter. They face a 1st-and-13 from their own 22-yard line. Driving the field for a score could stop Purdue’s momentum, as the Boilers brought the score back within 7 on their previous drive.

The Personnel and Formation
Michigan is in its 2-back spread set, with Brandon Minor to Threet’s left and Michael Shaw to his right. Martavious Odoms is in the right slot with Darryl Stonum wide left and the wideout to the right out of the screen. Purdue is in a standard 4-2 nickel package on defense.

The Play
Upon receiving the snap, Threet gives a token fake to Minor, who then pass blocks. The wide receivers are running crossing routes, but none of them are able to get open. Threet checks down to Shaw, who has looped behind him and is now running a swing to the left. Threet throws behind Shaw, and the ball is tipped by a Purdue defender, who would have had a clear path to the endzone had he been able to get both hands on the ball.

Why It Didn’t Work
The first thing to note is that Ortmann gets completely crushed by his man, who essentially runs right by him and has a free run at the quarterback. With Minor set to pass block to the left on this play, there really isn’t much excuse for getting beaten by a pure speed rush. That said, Threet makes the mistake of throwing behind Shaw. Shaw wasn’t open on the swing, but had Threet been able to give a pumpfake of sorts and step up, leading the Shaw on the wheel, Michael would have been wide open for a huge gain (maybe even a touchdown, depending on how well he could dance through the secondary). Again, this isn’t really on Threet, because he was about to get killed by Ortmann, but this play is a great example of good design being ruined by poor execution.

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The Board

New Information
MD RB Tavon Austin. Will visit North Carolina this weekend, then decide between the Tarheels and UM. Considering he never visited Ann Arbor…
FL Slot commit Jeremy Gallon. Selected to the Army AA bowl, and named the district player of the year.
SC OL Quinton Washington. Selected to the Shrine Bowl.
IL OL Commit Michael Schofield. Der uberfluff.
SC DE Sam Montgomery. Selected to the Shrine Bowl.
MD LB Jelani Jenkins. Fluff.
SC S Devonte Holloman. Choosing between Clemson and Michigan for 5th official.
FL S Angelo Hadley. Deciding whether to visit Michigan with Mywan Jackson or not.
FL CB Mywan Jackson. Recently suspended for disciplinary purposes. Bad boy.

Removed:
Travis Hawkins. Maryland commit.

Etc.
Freep fluff on recruiting teammates. Sam Webb in the News about which recruits fans probably don’t have to worry about.

Analysis
Austin will be off the board soon, though that’s no surprise considering he suddenly cancelled a Michigan visit early this year. It’s sounding more like Michigan probably won’t have a chance with Devonte Holloman. They’ll get a shot at Mywan Jackson, though it sounds like Angelo Hadley isn’t all that interested in Michigan (however, see the Freep article about recruiting teammates).

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Various outlets are reporting that Rich Rodriguez has called Steven Threet “very, very questionable” for Saturday’s game against Minnesota. Justin Feagin has been moved back to QB to back up Nick Sheridan. If that sentence doesn’t fill your veins with icy dread, I don’t know what will. Who knows, maybe Sheridan will be lost for the season and Feagin will go nuts on the Gophers, a la Justin Siller against Michigan?

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