Oh god, the football season must be really bad…

Last year, Michigan finished 148th in the nation in Jeff Sagarin’s college basketball rating system. This is a bad thing, and the 10-22 record would certainly speak to that. However, there are a few caveats that may give a little hope to UM basketball fans in regards to the upcoming year. First, last year’s record was compiled against the 7th most-difficult schedule in the nation. The teams with more difficult schedules than the Wolverines are as follows:

1. Arizona (36th in final Sagarin Ratings)
2. Georgia Tech (63rd in final Sagarin Ratings)
3. Southern Cal (26th in final Sagarin Ratings)
4. Texas (6th in final Sagarin Ratings)
5. Tennessee (9th in final Sagarin Ratings)
6. Illinois (73rd in final Sagarin Ratings)

Of course, all of these teams finished well ahead of Michigan in the final standings. A tough strength of schedule helps Sagarin rating, so unless you are a bad team (as Michigan certainly was last year), it makes sense that there is something of a correlation between the two metrics. Michigan, however, went 1-10 against the final top 25 and 1-13 against the final top 50 (the lone win came against Ohio State the night of Rich Rodriguez’s introduction).

The schedule isn’t leaps and bound easier this year, however, with games at Maryland and against Duke in the first semester, along with (hopefully) a pair against highly-regarded teams in the Coaches v. Cancer Classic. Duke, UCLA, and Southern Illinois are the other hosts and likely favorites to make it to the Garden. Michigan would face off against UCLA in a hypothetical semi-final where all the favorites win. On top of the conference slate, the Wolverines play UConn in Storrs February 7th.

So why should there be confidence for Michigan basketball fans this year? The most important reason is the coach. John Beilein is undoubtedly a system coach, and a damn good one at that (check out Brian’s offensive efficiency conclusions). Having one year to install his system, without players that he recruited, can only be expected to be a disaster (just as Rich Rodriguez is learning now). Now Beilein has been able to prepare his players for a much longer period of time. Both offensively and defensively, the players should improve somewhat.

Speaking of the players, essentially all of the important ones except Ekpe Udoh return, and there are a few notable additions. Beilein recruits Stu Douglass and Zach Novak are long-range bombers with the ability to handle the ball a bit. Both perfectly fit the system. Ben Cronin is a bigman with an outside touch. Laval Lucas-Perry was with the team last year (meaning he already has a year of the system under his belt), but was ineligible to compete because he was a transfer student; he will join the active roster after first semester exams.

So, if I haven’t at least drummed up a bit of excitement for Michigan basketball, I guess there’s none to be found. However, if nothing else, this team deserves support because it wears the maize and blue. The season starts tomorrow with an exhibition against Saginaw Valley. Watch it on BigTenNetwork.com at 7pm. Go Blue!

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Everyone in Big Ten country (except for maybe Indiana) is saying the same thing: Go Blue!It is refreshing to see Ohio sporting the color blue. Now we’re totally even for the past 7 years…

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Rank	Team	Delta
1	Penn State	1
2	Alabama	1
3	Texas Tech	4
4	Texas	3
5	Oklahoma State	—
6	Oklahoma	2
7	Florida	1
8	Southern Cal	2
9	Utah	1
10	Boise State	4
11	TCU	2
12	Georgia	3
13	Missouri	1
14	Ohio State	3
15	Michigan State	1
16	Brigham Young	1
17	Georgia Tech	9
18	California	6
19	Maryland	—
20	Pittsburgh	1
21	Minnesota	4
22	Tulsa	4
23	Florida State	3
24	West Virginia	2
25	LSU	2

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It’s the one day every four years where America decides who will be the Chief Executive of our country for the next term. In that spirit, let’s decide on a few things in the realm of Michigan football. Leave your ballots in the comments section, with justifications for your choices if you so desire.

President
The player that you think is the best leader on the team. This may not be the same as your secretary choices.

Secretary of Defense
The Defensive MVP of the team at this point in the season.

Secretary of Offense
The Offensive MVP of the team at this point in the season.

Secretary of the Interior
My lame attempt at a Terrance Taylor joke.

Most Deserving of Impeachment
The one coach that you think Michigan absolutely needs to get rid of, ASAP.

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The Board.

Added:
IL WR Kyle Prater. A big outside wideout from Illinois.
MI OT Nate Coleman. The Livonia Franklin product was at the MSU game.

New Information:
WA QB Jake Heaps. Fluffy stuff.
IL QB DaRon Brown. Injury news.
VA QB Phillip Sims. Recruiting-y fluff.
CA RB Brennan Clay. Tate Foricer’s HS teammate has reportedly been offered, and Scout confirms.
FL WR Commit Ricardo Miller. (Obviously incomplete) highlights from his junior year.
OH OL Matt James. Apparently offered, recent Notre Dame visitor.
FL S Marvin Robinson. Sam Webb says what many people who follow recruiting have been silently thinking: his coach is a nutjob. OK, when I originally typed that, there was no pun intended, but there’s no way I can pass up “bucknutjob.” Anyway, it seems like there might be a possibility of Marvin changing high schools.
FL CB Tyler Blandin. Cryptic Scout headline implies that there is much mutual interest between Blandin and Michigan – and he may help bring a couple other prospects in.

Analysis:
– First, Marvin Robinson: To anyone who’s following his recruitment at all, it has seemed for quite some time that he has wanted to commit to Michigan, but something was holding him back. It’s becoming more apparent that a batshit insane head coach is that hindering factor. Those reading the tea leaves think that he’s all but committed to Michigan.
– At corner, it’s starting to look like Lorenza Wood, Tyler Blandin, and Dior Mathis are the top three on Michigan’s recruiting board. If they can get all three, I think they’d take them all and switch one (Mathis, perhaps?) to slot receiver.

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So, with a little more time to let this game stew, it’s time to make a few more observations.

First, what was up with the defense? It hasn’t been good this year by any means, but it has never been quite that bad. Plus, the base scheme switched from the 4-3 (or the 3-4 nickel) to a pretty standard 3-3-5 stack. I’m not sure if RR decided to go with something he was used to, since Shafer’s schemes haven’t been lighting the world on fire. The 3-3-5 has developed something of a reputation for being good against the run, but bad against the pass. On Saturday, it was subpar against each. I’m not one to rag on Shafer, as most of the defensive woes are from players being in position, but missing tackles (re-watch the game if you want to torture yourself in that department) or being otherwise John Thompson-y, but the perforfmance the other day still has me scratching my head.

Steven Threet is obviously a lot more hurt than either he or the coaching staff wants to admit. Ever since the elbow bruise, he has been alternatingly mediocre and bad. On Saturday, he was 9-21 for 123 yards. What’s more disturbing than that? He is still infinitely better than Nick Sheridan. Sheridan’s numbers would have likely been similar, except trading the two touchdowns for interceptions.

Martavious Odoms, Darryl Stonum, and Boubacar Cissoko had something of a coming out party, though Odoms had flashes of brilliance earlier in the year. Stonum’s touchdown catch-and-run was nothing short of awesome, and both Odoms and Cissoko looked more than competent returning kicks and punts.

Justin Feagin played on special teams. What is the point of holding a guy out most of the year, then switching his position and burning his redshirt? It doesn’t make much sense, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it had something to do with trick play ability in the last few games.

With Brandon Minor proving himself to be something of a competent back when he doesn’t fumble, I wonder if Sam McGuffie will see a little more time in the slot. Michigan currently has an absolute dearth of bodies at the position, and he could be useful there. I don’t think it would be a permanent change, just something to fill a gap.

I wonder how different his year could have been if we’d gotten one of the games early in the year against Utah or Notre Dame. I don’t think the team is as bad as they’ve played of late, but there confidence has shattered, and the coaches may be trying to do too much stuff, and changing things around as they scramble for wins. At this point, I don’t think Purdue is really a better team (particularly with their third-string quarterback), but Michigan is just stuck in a downward spiral that probably won’t end until next year.

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Rank	Team	Delta
1	Penn State	1
2	Alabama	1
3	Texas Tech	4
4	Texas	3
5	Oklahoma State	—
6	Oklahoma	2
7	Florida	1
8	Southern Cal	2
9	Utah	1
10	Boise State	4
11	TCU	2
12	Georgia	3
13	Missouri	1
14	Ohio State	3
15	Michigan State	1
16	Brigham Young	1
17	Minnesota	—
18	California	6
19	Maryland	—
20	Pittsburgh	1
21	Georgia Tech	5
22	Tulsa	4
23	Florida State	3
24	West Virginia	2
25	LSU	2

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If you know of an article that can help out, let me know. I’ll fill in the remaining game articles/stats as I find the articles. 2010 updates will come in the form of a year-end wrapup.

CA QB Tate Forcier
This Week: Scripps Ranch v. Lincoln. Scripps wins 52-40.
Season Totals: Scripps Ranch 6-2.

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Two days after I try to stand up for the defense, they get lit up like a Christmas tree. Michigan’s opponent is practically guaranteed to win the Pontiac game-changing performance. A bowl game is officially out of reach.

It stinks.

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Action since last rankings:
10-26-08 Iowa gains commitment from Anthony Schiavone. Iowa gains commitment from Justin Lattimore. Purdue gains commitment from Brandon Taylor.
10-31-08 Illinois gains commitment from Craig Drummond.

New Rankings:

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