Three years ago Tim and I did a live blog of the basketball game in mid February. This was in the absolute worse part of the program’s malaise. Just to make sure we could get through it all, we got a 24 and located a half full fifth. By the end of the game all the booze was gone and we were hurling expletives and footwear at the Tommy Amaker we saw on TV. Michigan was never in that game and never really had a chance.

This year, Michigan was favored to win by 4 by the statistical guru Ken Pomeroy. Five minutes into the game I was having flashbacks to the game three years ago. The big difference is that this year I believed that Michigan could come back and win.  Ultimately, it wouldn’t happen, but that was mainly due to Wisconsin playing really good basketball and the officials reaffiirming my hatred for NCAA Basketball officials. Of course, we were watching through maize-and-blue-lenses, and there were bad call both way, but when the officiating is inconsistent enough that there are a lot of iffy calls, and random chance results in most of them going against your team, it’s hard not to get frustrated, especially when better officiaiting would have radically changed the outcome of this game.

A note to the color commentator: not calling a foul when Manny Harris gets hacked going to the basket is not “Big Ten Basketball”.  This is especially true when the next the play there’s a ticky-tack foul at the 3pt line.  Unless the color guy meant bad officiating is “Big Ten Basketball.” It’s OK to criticize poor officiating as a color commentator, and the commentary for NCAA BBall is actually even worse than for football (admittedly, our primary sport at VB).

So with that, Michigan faces off against Illinois on Sunday as a home underdog, and the path to the NCAA tournament gets a whole lot more dicey. At this point, the Wolverines can do nothing to help their case but win.

Posted under Basketball, Football

OK, I lied. This will be a 1.1 version (new additions: play-by-play broken up by substitution patterns, added notes for every shot). Hopefully 2.0 (including defensive series, + and – for individual players) will come out after the Wisconsin game. No guarantees on that, however, considering it’s New Year’s Eve.

Beilein clearly wants to have at least one of Sims and Harris on the floor at all times, and preferably both. He probably gave Sims a rest knowing that a TV timeout was approaching, as he reinserts DeShawn after the commercial. When Michigan is baioled out by a foul in a low-clock situation, Harris comes back in as well.

Individual Player Charts:

Grady was cold from 3 after Beilein gave him more minutes in an apparent vote of confidence.

Manny didn’t get going until the second half, for the second game in a row. He was still making his presence felt, but came alive a bit more in the second half.

Almost no shots for CJ, and his only attempt was a blocked putback.

LLP showed he can hit open threes, but did next to nothing in the second half. The missed shot from the lane probably should have been made.

Called on to shoot very little, but made the most of his opportunities.

Again, either he or Douglass gets used a lot in the offense. This time, it was Douglass’s turn.

I think Shepherd is pretty effective when he’s on the floor, just not mostly in terms of his shooting.

I think Shepherd is pretty effective when he’s on the floor, just not mostly in terms of his shooting.

Again, apologies for the delay in getting version 2 of the UFR running. Keep suggesting features for it, and I’ll take them into consideration.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Wisconsin today at 2PM in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

For the first time in a while, Michigan has a distinct deficit in multiple categories. Many of these are predictable for a perimeter-oriented team: Wisconsin is much better at rebounding and Michigan doesn’t get to the free throw line very often. Defensively, Michigan doesn’t force as many turnovers as one might hope to give them an advantage over Wisconsin. This is somewhat odd because the 1-3-1 is designed to force the opponent to give up the ball, but the Wolverines have been going with more man-to-man defense of late, so that may be a partial explanation. Overall, Wisconsin is a well-rounded team, ranking in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Michigan is still the favorite though, and Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-62 Wolverine triumph, with a 70% chance of victory.

In the game plans, the main area that is strongly correlated with both Michigan’s and Wisconsin’s efficiencies is Wolverine effective field goal percentage. Since Michigan has an advantage in it (however slight it may be), the Wolverines may have an advantage in performing well on offense today. The turnover rate for Wisconsin may also play a role. The Badgers have an advantage of nearly 100 places in the national rankings. Regardless, this is definitely the most evenly-matched game Michigan has played in a while.

Of course, with a team in the national spotlight, and one in Michigan’s own conference, the key players will be more known to Wolverines fans, and there are bound to be more of them. Joe Krabbenhoft, Marcus Landry, Trevon Hughes, and Jason Bohannon are all key players for the Badgers. Each has played in at least 73% of available minutes (the next closest player has less than 50%). Landry has star power, and is most mentioned in the national media, but it is Hughes who leads the Badgers in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and free throw rate. The point guard also (obviously) leads the team in assists, and really makes things go for Wisconsin.

This should be the first real test for Michigan in quite some time (since Oakland? Duke even?), and it’s time for the Wolverines to put up or shut up. Has this Michigan team been putting in a lackadaisical effort because they knew they would beat inferior teams anyway? Or are they really just not as good as we think/hope? A big win today would be a great start to making a run through conference season, and hopefully into the tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

So, now I understand why Brian takes a few days to do a football UFR. Basketball games are far less time-consuming, but it’s still ridiculously hard to finish them in any timely fashion.

The NC Central UFR will come tom orrow sometime, followed by the Wisconsin preview. The NCC UFR is also going to be a 1.1 version, rather than a 2.0. Apologies for the delay, and hopefully once I get into the groove of trying to hammer them out, I’ll be able to complete them in a much quicker manner.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Following up on the 2009 recruiting update from a day ago, here’s its 2010 counterpart. The recruiting board esta aqui.

Added: MI WR Baquer Sayed. Michigan already has a couple of wideouts in the class of 2010, but Sayed seems like he may be a pretty good one, and he’s right in the Wolverines’ backyard:

“Very rarely do we have a 6-2 receiver that can run, jump and catch the ball the way (Sayed) can. I don’t know if he is going to run a 40-yard dash in front of a college scout and give him a blazing time [4.6 range]. Baquer can improve that, definitely. That is my job and the rest of our coaching staff’s job to get him to do that.” [Sayed’s coach Fouad Walker]

“I think, as a high school receiver, Sayed could be the best in the state,” said [Scout analyst Allen] Trieu. “Prospect wise, Jackson brings a little more size and Banks brings a little more explosiveness. However, I think Sayed has the best ball skills of the three.”

Sayed also mentioned potentially playing both basketball and football in college, though he would choose football if he could play only one. His recruiting has been slow to start so far, but looks to be picking up:

Sayed doesn’t hold any offers at the moment, but Michigan, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Indiana, UCLA and Bowling Green all have sent letters expressing interest.

Also added to the board: PA CB Cullen Christian. He has been offered by Michigan ($).

Michigan will continue to look to Pahokee for talent in the future, and DL Antonio Ford may be one possibility in the class of 2010. SoFlaFootball brings the info:

The 6-foot-4, 255-pound Ford has the impressive frame and long limbs coaches look for in lineman. The talented lineman is still maturing and his size is only a fraction of what he will end up being in the future.

Ford is currently offerless, but is getting communications from Duke, West Virginia, and Maryland.

OH LB Scott McVey recently visited Ohio State, where he enjoyed himself greatly (info in header). All the news on McVey has been rather Buckeye-centric lately, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up committing to the Bucks.

FL DB LaMarcus Joyner has a pretty solid top 3 of Florida, FSU, and Ohio State (in that order). He is not considering MIami of Florida, and it will be interesting to see if any other schools (namely Michigan) will be able to break his top group’s stranglehold on his recruitment.

PA LB Sam Bergen tore his ACL this past season, but that won’t stop him from being a bigtime recruit:

Bergen was, and strives to be again, the top linebacker in the Mountain Valley Conference. Despite the injury, Bergen, like his older brother Max, who is a redshirt freshman at Stanford, remains a top recruit — and he’s got two binders of letters from universities across the country to prove it.

As of now, his favorite schools include but are not limited to Notre Dame, Penn State, Illinois, Rutgers, Stanford and Boston College.

FL RB Eduardo Clements sat down for an interview with SoFlaFootball. He currently favors FSU, Boston College, and Miami of Florida. He’s trying to put on some weight going into next season to have a more successful year.

FL WR/Slot Chris Dunkley talks offers with SoFlaFootball, but he refuses to discuss a favorite. He says all of the schools that he is considering are even, though it seems Florida and Georgia may be just a bit out front. He is considering taking summer visits to USC and West Virginia.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on winless North Carolina Central tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

NC Central is dead-last in the KenPom ratings, so its entirely understandable that Michigan has pretty significant advantages in every area. The Wolverines have their first 4-letter advantage of the year, and it’s in an important category: their offensive efficiency against NCC’s defensive efficiency. The only areas in which Michigan has just one-letter advantages are turnover rate on offense, defensive rebounding (astoundingly, they have more than 100 places in separation between the teams in Michigan’s offensive rebounding), and free throw rate on offense. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 96-41 Wolverines victory, with 0% chance of an upset in a 66-possession game.

Taking a look at the game plans, Michigan’s effective field goal percentage against NC Central’s defense should be a good indicator of how the team’s overall offensive performance will go. Considering Michigan has a huge advantage in that area, it should be a good day for the Michigan offense. On paper, this looks to be a great offensive day for Michigan. The one area NCC is fairly good in is blocking opponents’ shots, but that will likely not play a huge role against a perimeter-shooting team like the Wolverines.

NCC has three key players, all of whom have played more than 80% of the possible minutes so far this year. Stevy Worah-Ozimo is the tallest player on the team at 6-9. He is the team’s center, and hasn’t attempted a three-point shot yet this year. Freshman Jamar Briscoe is a Grady-sized (5-10) point guard, and leads the team in assists. The other key player is Vincent Davis, who, at 6-2, would normally be considered a guard, but he may be more of a wing player on such a size-challenged team (3rd shortest in Division I, ahead of only Nebraska and SIU-Edwardsville, the second of which I believe is a data-entry error). The rest of the minutes are filled fairly evenly by the other 5 players on the team.

With the gaps in talent and depth between these teams, it would be surprising if NC Central gave MIchigan much of a game. Of course, stranger things have happened, so be sure to check out the game at 7 tonight on BTN. If nothing else, it should provide an opportunity to see Michigan look like world-beaters.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Since there is so much recruiting info for me to catch up on, I’ll separate the 2009 and 2010 information this time, in order to fit as much stuff in as I can. The board lives here, and can always be found via the left sidebar.

I’ll start with the bombshell-ish info: William Campbell, thought to be heavily leaning to Michigan despite his decommitment, has basically eliminated the Wolverines from contention upon his arrival at the Army All-American game (free Rivals video). I’ll leave him on the board for now, mostly out of hope, rather than any actual fact. From the interview, it sounds like LSU is going to get the hat pulled out by Campbell on Saturday. :(

He won’t be added to the recruiting board, as per VB policy (soon to change for the 2010 board, because it’s tough keeping track of these guys without adding all their info to the board), but LA WR Travante Stallworth, an Auburn commit, is getting some attention from Michigan (info in header). It certainly sounds like he may be swayed, if another school really wants him (info in header again).

SC DE Sam Montgomery is still on the board, though he seems far less enthused about Michigan (we’re near Detroit!) than he did earlier in the recruiting process, and has named LSU his leader. He was involved in the Shrine Bowl (warning: super fluffy), and though the article’s title is “Montgomery stays patient in the recruiting process,” there isn’t one bit of information about recruiting, so it’s just something to read if you want nice quotes about a kid, including his stats:

Montgomery, 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, had 111 tackles including 11 sacks, three forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery this season while mainly playing linebacker. He played on the varsity team for the past three years.

…and his altruistic side:

“I’m going to keep on battling until I make it to the (NFL), so I can give some of my signing bonus (to the Shriners Hospitals for Children). This will be one of the main organizations I give to.”

Although he took in a South Carolina bowl practice,  they are in the “middle of the pack” with everyone else in his final group, save favorite LSU. Speaking of Montgomery, this article also mentions him, but more interesting are the following two tidbits of information:

DB Dre Kirkpatrick (6-3, 190) of Gadsden, Ala., will visit Alabama, Florida and Texas for sure in January. He’s only planning four visits and for the final trip he’s considering Clemson, Southern California, LSU, Michigan and Auburn… DB Jaron [sic] Hosley  (5-10, 172) of Delray Beach, Fla., will visit Ohio State, Michigan, South Florida and Clemson in January.

After not mentioning Michigan throughout most of the summer, Kirkpatrick has picked up interest in the Wolverines again, it seems. Lord knows we need him. Jayron Hosley‘s Ohio state visit is confirmed by Bucknuts.

JC DE Pernell McPhee was though to be leaning to Michigan following his official visit, and the former Pahokee Blue Devil did not sign with Mississippi State (where he has been softly committed) on JC signing day. However, he has also been to Florida on an official visit recently, and the subheadline “Will Pernell McPhee stay with Mississippi State or will he play for another SEC program?” makes it sound like maybe the Wolverines missed their opportunity with Pernell.

OH OL Henry Conway was at the spring game, but hasn’t really been on the Michigan fan’s radar since. However, he is leaving a date open for an official visit, and will take it if the Wolverines end up offering him (info in header).

UNC CB commit Josh Hunter is still considering a Michigan official, and he’s looking at the January 17th weekend.

LSU insiders don’t exactly seem to be kicking themselves for missing on LA DT commit DeQuinta Jones, but they certainly think he’ll be a good player down the road:

The best defensive lineman in the state that no one ever talks about is Bastrop’s Dequinta Jones (6’3 275), who runs a 4.8 forty and can play the game as well as any in the country. Jones is committed to Michigan, and I predict he will start after one year and play as a true freshman for the Wolverines.

I assume this assertion is not in any way intended to imply that he is not a soft commit (as has been rumored), but rather a compliment of the caliber of player he is. Michigan fans are certainly excited to see DD in maize and Blue.

Next on the list of “I still believe in Michigan” articles of current commits: Fitzgerald Toussaint. It’s not just fluff though. There are three videos in the article, so check it out.

I’ve added LA LB Barkevious Mingo to the board. Sam Webb lets us know he plans to visit January 9th weekend.

And of course, the day I talked only about QBs, I forgot to mention them, but I’ve decided to add A.J. Westendorp and Nader Furrha to the board. Both are likely preferred-walkon candidates, though if the QB recruiting situation becomes extra-dire, one of them might get offered.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

OK, obviously this is very early in a development stage, but I’d like to get it published for the sake of soliciting comments and suggestions from readers. Of course, the inspiration comes from MGoBlog’s UFR of football games. Down the line (likely in the next edition of UFR, unless people don’t like it enough to justify continuing the feature), I plan to add defensive possessions, and certainly have the “notes” section be a bit more thorough (notice that the later in the game this UFR goes, the more notes there are). To split it up a bit, the next one will be put into groups by personnel (which would be the “drives” in Brian’s football UFRs). This first edition grades only the shots taken by Michigan, which I hope to expand to entire possessions in the future.

The very beginnings of this started with the box score, then I sort of filled in the details watching the game. The “Score” colmun indicates the score of the game prior to the shot in question being taken. Shooter, Assist, and Made should be self-evident. The assister is unofficial (i.e. not from the box score), but taken from watching the game. Range indicates where the shot was taken from. Currently, it’s only divided into 3-pt, mid-range, and lane, but I’m certainly open to tweaking those indications. Quality is the only  entirely subjective measure on my part, and indicates how open the shooter is. “3” is a shot that is wide open, and not contested at all. “0” is a shot that is blocked, and has no chance of going in. “1” is a well-defended shot with a hand in the face, and “2” is in between 1 and 3, predictably.

Shot quality shows multiple aspects of a player’s game. First, a guy who shoots a lot of “3” shots either can create his own shot, or only shoots when he is wide open. A guy like Manny, on the other hand, will shoot (and make) a lot of “1”s and “2”s. Players who are shooting “1”s from three-point range are probably making poor decisions, unless the shot clock or other factors are coming into play. Shooting “1”s from the paint is more forgiveable, because there is a much better likelihood of getting fouled. It is also more acceptable to miss “1”s and “2”s. If a guy is missing a ton of “3”s, he’s probably just a bad shooter for that game.If you have any other ways these factors can be interpreted, please leave it in the comments. I’ll be interested to see what you can figure out.

Individual Player Charts:

After the hot start, Stu was little-used.

Quiet day for Gibson.

All of Grady’s shots were from 3, but he was using his quickness in other ways: he finished with 2 assists (and one more would-be on a missed shot).

Manny didn’t get going until the second half. The asterisk next to fouls indicates that he made one of the shots on which he was fouled (need to figure out a better notation for that). One of his midrange misses was a chuck on a low shot clock.

Almost no shots for CJ, and his only attempt was a blocked putback.

LLP showed he can hit open threes, but did next to nothing in the second half. The missed shot from the lane probably should have been made.

Called on to shoot very little, but made the most of his opportunities.

Either he or Douglass seems to be hot from outside in each game. This time, it was Douglass’s turn. However, Novak’s numbers show more desire (ability?) to score in ways other than spotting up for 3.

Little playing time from Jevohn after a pretty good game against Eastern. Might he get a little less playing time now that Beilein seems to like a small lineup?

Good day for DeShawn. He has proven that he can absolutely turn it on when the team needs him.

Obviously this is a very rough draft, and maybe I should have waited until it was a bit more complete to publish, but I’d really like to hear your comments on it to improve it for the future. The next edition of UFR will be a 2.0 with vast improvements, and hopefully it just needs tweaks from there.

Please please please give me your suggestions and concerns with this. Anything is on the table: style, content, aesthetics, and any other feedback you can come up with.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

I originally planned to cover the Big Ten’s bowl season in a little detail, if only for something to talk about with Michigan’s lack of making a bowl game. However, I quickly realized that I didn’t really care about the rest of the conference, and decided not to do game-by-game previews of the entire conference.

That said, national perception of the Big Ten is relevant to the Michigan Wolverines, as ESPN pundits and national columnists have ever-more influence on the polls, and they use their platform to idiotically paint teams with the broad brush of conference loyalty. Going into next year, Michigan will get a better reputation by association on the basis of a strong bowl season by their conference compatriots. Of course, that means little until the results on the field bear out an overall improved level of play for the league and the team itself.

Last year, I went to the Champs Sports Bowl between Michigan State and a Boston College team that I thought was overrated for much of the year. The underdog Spartans gave the Golden Eagles a much better game than was expected, and likely should have won, save for a downright Hoyer-esque performance by… uh… Hoyer (awkward!). That set the table for a generally poor postseason by the league, save a few bright spots from the likes of Michigan and… Purdue.

This year, the Big Ten is in a fairly tough situation, as its teams are underdogs in 6 of their 7 bowl games. Wisconsin got the league started with a shellacking by the favored Florida State Seminoles. Wisconsin really shot themselves in the foot early in the game, and Bret Bielema is slowly proving himself to be the leader of some of the most poorly-coached major football teams in America. Of course, after the early choking by Wisconsin, Florida State rode the wave of momentum to a big win. (Side-rant time: Everyone who really follows college football knows the ACC is so even all over the place because it’s essentially just a mediocre league. Then you have talking heads like Todd McShay and Mel Kiper telling everyone to look at it more like an NFL division, where all these TEH AWESOMEZ teams are beating up on each other, and in the end somebody ends up with a playoff spot. Is there any way to do a better job removing any and all appeal from the college game? Of course, maybe the ACC is “good” (and the bowl games have started to bear this out so far), but that does nothing more than show me why parity in sports may be the most boring thing possible).

Of course, there are 6 games remaining for the Big Ten, and none loom larger than the two BCS contests. Big Ten squads have struggled in the Bowl Championship Series of late, with Ohio State dropping two consecutive National Title games, and Michigan laying an egg against USC in 2007, and Illinois simply overmatched by the Trojans this January. If Penn State and/or Ohio State can pull off an upset, it can go a long way to repairing the reputation of the conference.

Posted under Football

Action since last rankings:
12-21-08 Wisconsin gains commitment from Pat Muldoon.
12-23-08 Minnesota loses commitment from Daryl Robinson.

New Rankings:

Posted under Football, Recruiting