Obviously I don’t want this to become a recruiting-only site (and there is a recruiting update coming sometime today or tomorrow, though I foresee there being at least one post and likely two about the Oakland basketball game), but when something big happens, I think it’s important to address. This, obviously, is considered a big event.

After assuring everyone who would listen that he was firmly committed to Michigan, and would consider no other schools, Shavodrick Beaver pulled the old bait-and-switch on us all Friday, and decommitted from Michigan, giving his verbal pledge to Tulsa. That is correct, Shavodrick Beaver picked a Conference-USA team over one of the most storied programs in college football history.

Why did he do it?

So what could have possibly been Beaver’s motivation for changing his commitment? Rumors (and many of them complete guesses) have been thrown around from all corners of the internet, and nobody really knows which are true and which aren’t. One of the prevailing theories is that he wants to be closer to his mom, or his mom gave him no choice but to go somewhere closer to home. That may be the case, but then why not go somewhere closer? His original runner-up to Michigan was TCU. The Horned Frogs are based in Fort Worth, much closer to Wichita Falls than Tulsa is. Regardless, that factor may have been an issue in his commitment to Michigan sticking.

Another issue may have been the fact that he would have likely started – on account of his shoulder surgery – stuck behind Tate Forcier on the depth chart.Perhaps Beaver didn’t see a situation in which he would ever be able to play, being slotted behind a guy in his own class, with other guys coming in the future. The final theory is related to the first, and holds that he didn’t want the pressure of playing in a bigtime program, choosing instead to head to Conference-USA, where he could be a big-time player without the pressure of being in a program expecting big-time success. The one theory that doesn’t really make much sense is that the Michigan staff cut him loose. Despite his comments that the Tulsa coaches made him feel more like a member of the family (which every recruit has been saying about Michigan, as well), I think the Michigan coaching staff would have had a better contingency plan in place if they had any idea a decommitment was on the way.

As another side note, regardless of what those “in the know” say, almost nobody saw this coming (except perhaps the coaches themselves). Any retroactive “well I knew this was going to happen” is simply revisionist history, since just last week, most recruiting experts were trying to assure everyone that Beaver was still solid, and that the comments on his MySpace page were nothing to worry about. Being blindsided by an event like this is nothing to be ashamed of, and one shouldn’t rewrite history to give the appearance of seeing this sort of event come to fruition.

Short-Term Trouble

The 2009 recruiting class has suddenly gone from greatly shoring up a major position of need, with two 4-star quarterback commits, to still needing another body, much less a great player, to even come close to filling the numbers necessary to field a team at the position. Now, Threet and Sheridan are the only options other than Forcier, and if any of the three goes down, regardless of who was the starter, there is already a depth issue arising. The coaching staff will need to find another quarterback in this class, simply in case one or more of the existing QBs gets injured this year. That said, they will likely go with a player with very good running ability and a passing game that needs some work. That way, there is potential for a move to the defensive backfield or slot receiver if the numbers at QB look better in the future.

Might we see Justin Feagin playing a little bit at the QB position (instead of moving to slot, as had been announced) in 2009? It’s not likely, unless the Wolverines can’t pull in another QB/Ath in the class of ’09. Another bummer from the Beaver situation is that Michigan will now go from two quarterbacks enrolling early to one enrolling early, with another hopefully coming in the fall. The preparedness of the group as a whole will undoubtedly be decreased.

Long-Term Ramifications

Without Beaver in the class of 2009, what are the effects on the Wolverines down the road (that is, further in the future than the 2009 season)? It appears likely that whoever they pick up to fill the other QB slot in the 2009 class will likely move to slot or defensive back down the road, when the numbers get back up to where they should be. That give Michigan much better spacing between classes at the QB position, as there won’t be many in a single class. This means the Wolverines are less likely to graduate all their players at the position in a single year, jeopardizing future years.

That takes us to future recruiting classes. Only having one true QB in the class of 2009 certainly makes Michigan more attractive to signal-callers in the class of 2010, namely one Devin Gardner, an in-state product who has great potential as a run-pass threat in this offensive system. Gardner will likely be rated a high-4 or 5-star prospect, and rated more highly than either Tate Forcier or Shavodrick Beaver (of course, there’s the little issue that he won’t be able to play for Michigan until the 2010 season holding him back from being the current #1 target). Though the Beaver situation is unfortunate, it may help Michigan in the long run, provided the Wolverines aren’t completely screwed short-term.

So What Does It All Mean?

Decommitments are almost never a good thing. They provide ammo for an inexplicably-ruthless local press, and open the door to negative recruiting pitches from other schools. This particular decommitment particularly hurts Michigan, especially in the short term. As an aside, I don’t understand why Beaver had to speak ill of Michigan, considering he didn’t seem to harbor any ill will, he’s just hurting the coaches who have done nothing but good for him. In the long run, Michigan will go on. Might the 2009 season suffer because of a lack of QB depth? Perhaps, but the long-term picture is changed very little, and the Michigan Wolverines will go on without Shavodrick Beaver.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Action since last rankings:
12-14-08 Michigan gains commitment from Taylor Lewan. Minnesota gains commitment from Jeff Wills. Minnesota gains commitment from Kenny Watkins.
12-15-08 Northwestern gains commitment from Roderick Goodlow.
12-16-08 Penn State gains commitment from Kevin Newsome.
12-17-08 Illinois gains commitment from Aaron Gress. Purdue gains commitment from Al-Terek McBurse.
12-18-08 Indiana loses commitment from Jeremy Gainer. Michigan State gains commitment from Jeremy Gainer. Minnesota gains commitment from Bryant Allen. Purdue gains commitment from Antwon Higgs.
12-19-08 Michigan loses commitment from Shavodrick Beaver. Purdue gains commitment from Najee Tyler.
12-20-08 Illinois gains commitment from Tom Kynard. Minnesota gains commitment from Brent Singleton.

Huge week of action, at least partially because I got a little behind in moving to the new site. Regardless, there are some shakeups in the rankings as Penn State flies by Illinois, Minnesota passes Wisconsin, and Purdue is no longer in last(!). Indiana is heading in the wrong direction, as they’ve been absolutely hemorrhaging recruits lately.

New Rankings:

Posted under Recruiting

None of your regularly schedule posting this weekend. We’ll have some thoughts about the basketball game after it’s over, but other than that, don’t expect anything substantive unless some major news breaks.

We’ll be back in action come Monday, and from there, Paul and I will see what the schedule around Christmas is going to look like. Thanks for sticking around.

Posted under Blog News

So… this was unexpected.  After assuring the staffs of Scout and Rivals that his commitment was solid, he announces that he’s commiting to Tulsa and disconnects his phone.

There are other quarterbacks in this class that will be getting a call from the staff, most notably Florida QBs Denard Robinson and Eugene Smith. Rich Rodriguez and Co. will definitely try to sign a second someone.

I’m not sure if we’re into full panic mode, but it’s a shock to lose a recruit to Tulsa. But hey, we have had a lot firsts this year. They’ll find someone else, and if nothing else, this will help Michigan’s chances with Devin Gardner.

Posted under Recruiting

Thanks to all the entries.  It’s nice to see some excitement around the team even around a game that’s not on campus against a small OOC opponent.  Pat definitely wins for funniest response; I actually laughed when I read that.

The winner is frequent commentor I Know Nothing.  He has to get another chance to introduce his kid to a Michigan sporting event after the unfortunate Appalachian State game.

Congratulations to I Know Nothing. You better represent Michigan fans well at the game.

Posted under Blog News

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

On Saturday at 6, Michigan will return to the hardcourt, this time taking on the Golden Grizzlies of Oakland at the Palace of Auburn Hills. How do the teams match up? Let’s take a look at the tempo-free analysis and Pomeroy Ratings (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!

Things look to be pretty slanted in Michigan’s favor, and Pomeroy’s prediction agrees: he sees Michigan winning 79-64 in a 62-possession game. According to Ken, the Wolverines have a 92% chance of winning.

One thing to look for in this game: Oakland’s defensive efficiency is correlated with how well opponents shoot the ball, and Michigan’s offensive efficiency is strongly correlated with how well they shoot the ball. Looking at the chart above, Michigan looks to have a good shooting night against the Grizzlies – which can help lead them to victory.

Oakland’s key players are point guards Johnathon Jones and Eric Kangas, along with big man (6-11) Keith Benson. Jones almost never comes off the court (2nd nationally in minutes played), and he and Kangas account for much of the team’s offense – including Jones leading the squad in assists. Benson has gone to the stripe 48 times this year (perhaps because he is only making 62.5% of free throws), and is shooting .575 from the field.

One other thing to keep in mind: the Oakland game will also be the debut of one Laval Lucas-Perry in a Michigan uniform. It should be interesting to see how LLP affects the overall chemistry and production of the team. One thing is for sure: It will be nice to have another solid combo guard to fill in at the 1 & 2 spots, decreasing the minutes that are occupied by former walk-ons.

Go Blue!

Posted under Analysis, Basketball, Other Sports

I got a couple tickets to the Oakland game at the Palace this Saturday, but due to a unfortunate sequence of events, I can’t go to the game.  This should be a really interesting game to go see as it’s Laval Lucas-Perry’s first game, and since it’s not at an NCAA they may serve alcohol (although not as important with Michigan’s newly found competance!).

Unfortunately, up until a little bit ago, I thought I was going to the game, so this is a bit last minute.  You’ll have to be able to pick up the tickets in Ann Arbor.

To enter just leave a comment on why you should be given a pair of tickets to the Michigan/Oakland basketball game.

Winner will be announced and contacted sometime Friday, so if you enter, check your e-mail.

Posted under Blog News

Yeah, so obviously this one was supposed to be published before the one that came out earlier this week, but oh well. On to the information.
Recruiting Boards:
2009 & 2010. These are also always available if you look directly to the left.

Moved to Committed:
2009 MI WR Cameron Gordon. Commit article.
2009 AZ OL Taylor Lewan.

Moved from Committed:
2009 IN LB Jordan Barnes. From the sounds of it, he isn’t going to give Michigan a ton of consideration going forward after his decommit. He has been removed from the board.

Also removed from the board: 2009 VA QB Kevin Newsome, who has committed to Penn State.

Added to the 2010 recruiting board: AL WR BJ Chitty, a recent Auburn decommit (audio)

Might 2010 FL RB Corvin Lamb be favoring FIU?:

The kid you’re thinking about, Northwestern High’s Corvin Lamb, a junior, who has not committed to FIU just yet.

Uh, what? If FIU were to land this kid (likely a top-100 type), it would be something of a major coup. I guess stranger things have happened, so be on the lookout. However, other sources indicate he’s a big Florida fan. That makes a little more sense, considering it’s not crazy.

2009 OH S Commit Isaiah Bell will likely end up at linebacker at Michigan (info in header). Obviously, this stems from what the coaches have told him is his likely position here, though I guess that could theoretically mean a bandit-type position if there is indeed a coordinator change.

Among those visiting Florida last weekend was 2009 MD LB Jelani Jenkins. Michigan is in the mix to get one of his remaining official visits. Word on the street, however, is that he’s all but committed to the Gators, with Penn State as the only likely challenger remaining.

2009 JC DE Pernell McPhee enjoyed his official visit. So much, that he has now proclaimed he favors UM over Miss State. Oddly for a kid from Florida (via Mississippi), he likes the cold and snow, and he also enjoyed himself at the hoops game. He’s still nominally committed to Mississippi State, so he remains off the board for now, but UM might be right in this one. The JC signing period started yesterday, and he has not signed an LOI anywhere.

New offers? New offers:

“Michigan assistant coach Jay Hopson was in Coushatta, La., recently to check out one of the Bayou State’s top rising prospects – Red River defensive end Bennie Logan. After U-M’s evaluation, Logan had an offer from Michigan. Assistant coaches also extended offers to Tallahassee (Fla.) FAMU defensive end Alex Williams and Lancaster, Texas, cornerback Demontre Hurst on recent visits to their schools.”

Logan had already been added to the board. Williams will be added, and Hurst re-added after he was on it briefly earlier this year.

2010 FL LB Anthony Hamm really, really likes Florida. He’s now teetering on the edge of removal, and it sounds like he’ll commit to the Gators soon anyway.

Want to know who else sounds like a lost cause? 2010 Pahokee DT Doral Willis. When an article is entitled “I Would Commit to Miami on the Spot,” he’s pretty much a done deal, assuming the ‘Canes offer. I’ll leave him on the board for now, in case they don’t.

Posted under Recruiting

Prior to serving as Michigan’s linebackers coach in 2008, Jay Hopson spent the previous three years as the Defensive Coordinator and Secondary Coach at the University of Southern Mississippi. Of course, I believe we can get into this discussion without getting sidetracked into an exploration of why he went from secondary at USM to linebackers at Michigan. No?
OK, tangent time:
As Scott Shafer is held responsible for the poor play by Michigan’s defense this year by people who, no offense, clearly weren’t paying enough attention this year, let’s look at something. Tony Gibson was the safeties coach, and Michigan’s safeties were pitiful this year, even compared to the historical standard. Would it have made more sense for Shafer to only serve as DC and let Hopson take control of the secondary (check out his credentials as a secondary coach from MGoBlue:

Prior to his appointment as defensive coordinator, Hopson coached the defensive backs for the Golden Eagles from 2001-03. In 2002, his unit led the nation in fewest passing touchdowns allowed and finished fourth nationally in pass efficiency defense. Southern Mississippi led C-USA and finished fifth nationally in pass defense during the 2003 season. Each year of his tenure, USM ranked in the top 15 nationally in scoring defense.)

, while finding a good linebackers coach instead of having Tony Gibson turn Stevie Brown and Brandon Harrison into (or, “let them remain,” as it were) nightmares in the defensive backfield? Almost certainly yes. Lloyd Carr was criticized for year for refusing to fire Mike DeBord and Andy Moeller. Tony Gibson (admittedly, in only one year to effect change) has so far proven to be no more effective, and retaining him forced other coaches out of their areas of expertise.

End Tangent.

Back to the point. If Hopson is to become Michigan’s defensive coordinator, it is certainly relevant to see how his teams performed during his time at the same position for Southern Miss.

So, in all, acceptable but not thrilling numbers (keep in mind USM’s non-conference games were often against teams with much better talent).

So when the numbers don’t tell a definitive tale, we go to someone who watched the games with an analytical eye, and get his opinion. If only there was a great CFB blogger who also happened to be a Southern Miss grad. Wait a minute, we’re in luck! The venerable SMQ/Dr. Saturday on Hopson:

At a sparsely attended game like Saturday’s, USM fans have pretty much free reign on the field afterwards, and SMQ took the North end zone as a shortcut to his car. When he ran across Hopson en route to the locker room, he told the coach, “Nice job hanging tough by the defense,” which was not much consolation but was true: it gave up a couple drives, including the 60-yard, game-tying march over the final four minutes of regulation, but it also scored as many touchdowns as either offense, on a length-of-field interception return by no-name Eddie Hicks that momentarily turned the tide at the end of a frustrating ECU drive, and held the Pirates to the field goal attempt in the overtime after allowing them to get first-and-goal at the three…
In regulation, USM’s defense allowed 10 points (the first ECU touchdown was a kick return) and about 275 yards. It gave up no true big plays. You have to be able to win with that.

So, happy but not enthused, just as the stats would imply. Interestingly, Hopson seems to be a proponent of the 3-4 defense (with one of the linebacker positions occupied by a safety) that Michigan saw this year in its “Okie” package, rather than a true 3-3-5 stack. How much of the tension between position coaches would this change actually alleviate? That certainly remains to be seen. For more from SMQ, check out Brian’s post from yesterday.

Of course, now that Michigan followers are attempting to pick apart Hopson’s resume for any relevant information, someone else will be appointed coordinator, and this will all have been a waste.

Posted under Football

MI WR Jeremy Jackson
Huron went 4-5 and missed the playoffs.
Chelsea (L, 27-35) Jackson had touchdown catches of 7 and 29 yards.
Tecumseh (L, 34-42) No mention of Jeremy in the game article.
Dexter (W, 44-21)

“Our coaches said we must win this game,” said Huron wide receiver Jeremy Jackson, who tallied 151 yards [and 1 touchdown] on seven catches. “This was our game of the year and we played like it.”

Temperance Bedford (L 7-33) No mention of Jeremy in the game article.
Yspilanti Lincoln (W, 40-12) No mention of Jeremy in the game article.
Pinckney (W, 30-0) Jackson had 4 catches for 59 yards.
Adrian (W, 42-41) Jackson had three touchdown grabs. One was for 20 yards and one was for 10. No mention of how long the other was.

“The whole defense was talking to me, telling me that I was overrated and all that,” Jackson said. “I just had to come out and play.”

Pioneer (L, 10-34) No mention of stats, but:

Twice during the game, Ryan Griffin broke up slant pattern passes to star Huron wideout Jeremy Jackson that possibly could have gone for touchdowns.

Saline (L, 28-40) Jackson had a 6-yard touchdown reception.

FL WR Ricardo Miller
Dr. Phillips went 9-1 and lost in the second round of the playoffs.

Posted under Football, Recruiting