Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.
Michigan takes on Florida Gulf Coast University tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game is not on television, but can be seen on BigTenNetwork.com
Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):
| Michigan v. Florida Gulf Coast: National Ranks | Category | Michigan | FGCU | Advantage |
| Mich eFG% v. FGCU eFG% D | 53 | 152 | M |
| Mich eFG% D v. FGCU eFG% | 82 | 295 | MMM |
| Mich TO% v. FGCU Def TO% | 9(!) | 189 | MM |
| Mich Def TO% v. FGCU TO% | 204 | 338 | MM |
| Mich OReb% v. FGCU DReb% | 223 | 231 | Push |
| Mich DReb% v. FGCU OReb% | 280 | 231 | F |
| Mich FTR v. FGCU Opp FTR | 201 | 203 | Push |
| Mich Opp FTR v. FGCU FTR | 24 | 70 | M |
| Mich AdjO v. FGCU AdjD | 5(!) | 169 | MM |
| Mich AdjD v. FGCU AdjO | 134 | 317 | MM |
Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!
So, uh, yeah. Florida Gulf Coast isn’t exactly what you’d call a “great team.” The only areas in which they have an advantage over Michigan are those you’d expect: Rebounding and Michigan getting to the line. With a perimeter-oriented zone-defense team, Michigan can give that up.Pomeroy predicts an 82-54 win for Michigan.
Michigan’s effective field goal percentage is strongly correlated with their offensive efficiency, and FGCU’s ability to restrict opponents’ eFG% is correlated with their defensive efficiency. Considering Michigan was one ranking away from having an advantage of 100 places over FGCU, I’d say it looks to be a good offensive day for Michigan. Without needing to get to the rack to score, I doubt Michigan will spend much of the day driving the lane. Florida Gulf Coast’s offense doesn’t appear to rely on hanging onto the ball, and that’s a good thing for them: they’re terrible at doing so. Look for Michigan to exploit FGCU turnovers, hopefully leading to a lot of fast breaks.
Finally, and most importantly, Reed Baker returns to Crisler Arena. The Rainmaker is second on the team in minutes played, shooting 41.2 eFG% from the floor, and has nailed 84.8% of his free throws. Guard Delvin Franklin and Wing Derrick O’Neil are the stars for FGCU, and Rainmaker plays a key supporting role.
Posted under Analysis, Basketball
Tags: fgcu, preview, reed baker
I can’t get the stream to work. I’ve watched that friggin comercial a dozen times, but the game won’t play.
Is anyone able to watch?
Mich is winning but playing like crap.