Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida	1
2	Texas	1
3	Utah	5
4	Southern Cal	1
5	Oklahoma	4
6	Penn State	2
7	Alabama	1
8	Georgia	5
9	Ohio State	—
10	Texas Tech	3
11	TCU	—
12	Oregon	10
13	Virginia Tech	5
14	Missouri	2
15	Mississippi	11
16	Cincinnati	2
17	Florida State	9
18	Michigan State	1
19	Iowa	—
20	Boise State	10
21	Georgia Tech	9
22	Oklahoma State	7
23	California	3
24	North Carolina	2
25	LSU	1

Dropped Out: Brigham Young (#20), Pittsburgh (#21), Boston College (#23), Northwestern (#24), Oregon State (#25).

Still not 100% happy with it, but it is what it is.

Posted under BlogPoll, Football

Action since last rankings:
1-6-09 Penn State gains commitment from Jordan Hill.
1-7-09 Purdue gains commitment from Justin Kitchens.
1-8-09 Michigan loses commitment from DeWayne Peace.

New Rankings:

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Nice, dominating perofrmance by the Wolverines today in Crisler Arena. After struggling on the road against bottom-dweller Indiana, it was nice to see this team get its feet back under and finally dominate from start to finish in a way that they hadn’t in quite some time.

Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims were their usual sleves, for better or for worse. This time, Manny was hitting the 3-ball after his hesitation “move,” though he did brick a dunk in the first half (oops). DeShawn was money from inside the arc for most of the day (as usual), and had a few awesome rebounds (including a one-hander as he was getting fouled on the other arm). These guys are clearly the most talented guys on the team, and they showed that they can get it done in the Big Ten.

Zack Novak and CJ Lee are entirely different types of players, but each should be singled out for his effort on this day. CJ was constantly getting in passing lanes and disrupting the Iowa offense, he had a few steals, and even got a little offense of his own. Novak nails big shots left and right, but it’s the little things that really help. He puts in some of the best effort on the team, making deflections and getting rebounds despite playing the power forward position at only 6-5.

Kelvin Grayd made a layup, Eric Puls nailed a long bomb, and even Anthony Wright and Jevohn Shepherd got a bit of playing time. It was a good day. However, it is important to keep in mind that this Iowa team is not expected to finish near the top of the conference standings, and they were without one of their best players (and by far their best rebounder) today. Optimism is good, but a dominating win over a mediocre Iowa team on this day is no reason to let said optimism run wild.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tomorrow morning at 11:30 in Crisler Arena (10:30AM in Iowa City – how’s that for an advantage?). The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

On paper, this looks to be a very tough game for Michigan. Each team shoots a lot of threes, though Iowa makes many more of them. After a horrific outing at Indiana, most of the Wolverines’ offensive stats have gotten slightly worse. Surprisingly given the first half against the Hoosiers, the defensive rankings have actually gotten better. Looking at the gameplans, Michigan’s offensive performance will be reliant on their ability to make shots. Given their struggles against Indiana, this may be no easy feat. However, the Hawkeyes, like the Wolverines, field a very short team – and that was before Cyrus Tate hurt himself playing against Minnesota on Thursday. Perhaps the Manny Harris method of getting to the basket will be a little more effective, and he’ll be able to draw a foul or two (and actually get them called, for once). Iowa’s lack of size (and 3-point-heavy style) is evidenced by the fact that Michigan actually has a fairly sizeable advantage in rebounding the Hawkeyes’ misses. Iowa will make plenty of those shots though, and Michigan will have to take care of the ball (something they’ve certainly shown they can do) in order to get a win. The right column of the ledger above doesn’t tell the whole story: Michigan was close to getting a third “M” in the turnover column, a second in defensive rebounding(!!), while the Hawkeyes just missed getting a second in their advantage shooting the ball. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 63-60 win in a slow (56 possession) game.

Iowa’s key players are guard Jeff Peterson, who leads the team in assists and getting to the free throw line, freshman forward Matt Gatens, who leads the team in offensive rating and three-point shooting, and forward Cyrus Tate, the team’s lone senior. The 6-8 Tate is by far the team’s best rebounder on both ends of the floor, and he suffered an ankle injury in the first half against the Golden Gophers Thursday. He didn’t return to that game, and even if he does play tomorrow, it’s unclear exactly how effective he’ll be. If he’s limited, Michigan actually has a shot to outrebound their opponent for one of the few times this year – which would go a long way towards helping win.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida	1
2	Texas	1
3	Utah	5
4	Southern Cal	1
5	Oklahoma	4
6	Penn State	2
7	Alabama	1
8	Georgia	5
9	Ohio State	—
10	Texas Tech	3
11	TCU	—
12	Oregon	10
13	Virginia Tech	5
14	Cincinnati	—
15	Mississippi	11
16	Missouri	—
17	Florida State	9
18	Boise State	8
19	Michigan State	2
20	Iowa	1
21	Georgia Tech	9
22	West Virginia	4
23	North Carolina	3
24	Oklahoma State	9
25	LSU	1

Posted under BlogPoll, Football

Recruiting Boards:
2009 & 2010

Moved to Committed: MI QB Nader Furrha. The Ann Arbor Pioneer product will be a preferred walkon for the Wolverines. He has already enrolled in school, and will take part in spring practice. Furrha will add depth, but Michigan is still seeking a viable quarterback candidate in this class.

Moved from Committed: TX CB/WR DeWayne Peace. He decommitted yesterday, citing a desire to play WR. Michigan coaches told him they liked him primarily as a CB, and that would be his position once he got to Ann Arbor. The stubborn stance by Michigan coaches certainly implies that he won’t be sorely missed from the recruiting class (and I think most fans felt he and Jordan Barnes were the most expendable members of said class). Classy move by the coaches to not lead a kid on just to get his signature, then change his position without his consent once he arrived on campus. It seems more likely now that Michigan feels good about a CB prospect or two, and probably an outside WR as well. Peace will remain on the board – for now – but his player page has been removed from the committed player HQ.

It should come as no surprise that a high school powerhouse like Pahokee gets all sorts of individual honors for its players, but it is certainly notable that the small school offensive AND defensive Players of the Year go to the same high school – and now will remain teammates in college. Vincent Smith took home the offensive honor for the area, and Brandin Hawthorne earned the defensive distinction. In the photo (courtesy of The Palm Beach Post’s Ray Graham), Smith is second from the left, and appears to be sporting a gold grill. Hawthorne is on the far right. The other two gentlemen are FSU commit Lonnie Pryor and 2010 Florida commit Matt Elam.

This is obviously a little dated, as the Army game has come and gone, but here’s a little San Antonio fluff on 2009 K Commit Brendan Gibbons:

East kicker Brendan Gibbons (West Palm Beach, Fla.), who is committed to Michigan, doesn’t fit the stereotypical kicker mold — you know, small and reclusive.

For starters, the talkative 6-foot, 202-pounder is unusually buff for a kicker. On top of that, Gibbons spent the better part of Thursday’s first practice hyping up Michigan to a handful of skeptical teammates.

He at one point noted Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor, the MVP of last year’s U.S. Army All-American Bowl who had a drawn-out recruiting process that ultimately came down to the Buckeyes and Wolverines, “should be wearing blue.”

Gibbons isn’t just all show, though. He was consistently booming the ball on field goals and kickoffs during practice.

Clearly Gibbons is a good recruit/recruiter for the Wolverines. He also told GBW that 2009 VA QB Tajh Boyd was now interested in Michigan. However, with Boyd’s final official now scheduled for Clemson, it appears that ship has sailed. Boyd won’t be added to the board unless there is a radical change in the coming days. And to wrap up the kicker talk – not to bag on a kid for not choosing Michigan, but having watched both All-star games, I’m very glad with the way Michigan’s kicking situation ended up for the 2009 recruiting class. Gibbons also earned the Maxwell Award for high school kickers.

2009 DT Commit (albeit a soft one) DeQuinta Jones visits Arkansas this weekend. I would postulate that they are not Michigan’s biggest threat in landing Jones.

Speaking of All-Star fluff, 2009 SC DE Sam Montgomery participated in the Under Armour game, and the Index-Journal ran perhaps one of the fluffiest articles I’ve linked in a recruiting update. Fortunately, there is a little bit of actual information:

Along with playing in the Shrine Bowl on Dec. 17, Montgomery was also an All-Lakelands and Associated Press All-State player on a Greenwood team that bounced back from a 1-4 start to win the Region 1-AAAA title and make the Class AAAA, Division II state playoffs.

Montgomery lined up at defensive end in all but two games for the Eagles and recorded 78 individual tackles, 11 sacks and three forced fumbles. Despite having completed just his second season playing football, the 6-foot-4, 220-pound Montgomery has Division I scholarship offers from schools around the country, including Southern California, Miami (Fla.), LSU and Michigan.

So, honors and stats and fluff hooray. By the way, Montgomery’s lead recruiter for LSU, defensive line coach Earl Lane, got the axe yesterday, and that may have an effect on Sam’s recruitment.

2010 AR QB Claude Johnson participated in the Army AA Junior Combine, where he performed well:

“I made some good, accurate and strong throws,” Johnson said. “The receivers helped me out a lot because there’s a lot of good players out here. I do believe I was one of the best out here.

“Some of them do have more height, and that’s an advantage in college football right now, but I have heart and I play hard. I feel like I can play with anyone.”

Johnson ran a 4.78-second 40-yard dash and a 4.35-second pro-shuttle time in the early morning testing.

So he’s certainly far from a blazer, but could definitely still be considered a dual-threat.

And how about a couple removals?
2009 MA OL Brennan Williams committed to UNC at the Army game.
2009 MD RB Tavon Austin commited to West Virginia.
2009 FL CB Mywan Jackson committed to North Carolina, which was something of a foregone conclusion when he set up his announcement between three schools earlier this week, when the ‘Heels were the only team he visited.

For news about this weekend’s visitors, check out the recruiting post from earlier this week. Sam Webb brings the most recent update on who’ll be in town.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

With the news that J.R. Hemingway has been granted a medical hardship redshirt, and the season well in the rear-view mirror, it’s as good a time as any to update the scholarship count. I finally got around to removing Sam McGuffie, Carson Butler, and Avery Horn. All the freshmen who were able to redshirt (to the best of my recollection) have been moved back a year in eligibility, and the seven early-enrolled freshmen have been added as well.

There are still a couple possible changes pending on the basis of Andre Criswell and LaTerryal Savoy’s 5th year scholarships, Brandon Graham’s final decision on the NFL, and any other possible attrition.

As of now, the Michigan roster breaks down like this:
13 Seniors
18 Juniors
16 Sophomores
19 Freshmen
19 scholarships remaining for the 2009 class.

Visit the Eligibility Chart to see all the details.

Posted under Football

In my infinite hubris, I thought “ain’t no way this game is going to overtime,” and only set the DVR for 2 hours. The shot charting, therefore, only includes regulation. The differentials do include overtime, however. The raw data is available in .xls format here. Newly added: shot clock info for each shot.

NOTE: The total differentials don’t quite add up correctly. If you want to go through and check all my work, please feel free (I’m coming up with Michigan as having 3 points to many, and Indiana having 3 points too few).

Half 1

Half 2

Overtime

Game totals

Individual players:

Way too many inadvisable shots (especially from three) early in the shot clock. Manny wasn’t making a huge effort to slice into the lane.

LLP was inconsistent from 3, and took nary a midrange jumper.

It seemed like Novak was doing a hell of a lot more than it looks like he did just by checking his shot chart. He made a ton of hustle plays (including getting a key deflection leading to a steal and fast-break bucket late in regulation, in addition to a whiteboy block) that really helped Michigan win.

DeShawn was money from midrange in the second half, when the team really needed something from inside to steady them.

Grady got much more time than he did in the previous game, and though he took a couple ill-advised shots, he was a catalyst for the rest of the offense (4 assists, 2 more assist opportunities missed). He also made the lane shot on which he was fouled.

Zack was pretty quiet, especially considering Indiana’s defense was locking down on the three-pointers. you’d think he would get some more looks inside.

Quiet day for Merritt. More on how I think he should be used is below.

Stu had a crappy day, but he did nail one big shot. I still think he’s the far inferior of the freshmen.

The timing of Lee’s shots means more than the shots themselves. He also came up with key defensive plays (including a steal with 40 seconds in regulation and Indiana up 3) and rebounds.

What This Says…

I re-watched the game (the first half, particularly) with a keen eye on how Indiana shot the lights out. In all honesty, I can’t figure it out. Offensive rebounding has something to do with it, and maybe momentum plays a role (though some might question that, I think in college basketball momentum is at least something of a factor). Maybe Michigan, frustrated on the offensive end, was letting their effort on the other end of the court suffer. However, looking at the actual shots themselves, rather than just the final number, there was no explanation for Devan Dumes and this Roth fella in particular having the first half that he did. He would airball a wide open three (which may something negative about Michigan’s defensive effort overall, but doesn’t explain the final stats), and then turn right around and nail one from 5 feet behind the line with Novak right in his face. It appears to me that the hot shooting (in this game, at least; I didn’t UFR the Savannah State or Eastern Michigan games) may be, in large part (or at least SOME part) a ridiculously unlikely statistical anomaly.

Even if you concede the defense was bad, which it may have been at some times, though not all, it was the offense that would have done the Wolverines in. If you allow the other team to score, the offensive output for your own team can’t absolutely sputter. That is what leads to huge runs like Indiana so frequently had in this game. Michigan can play poorly on one end of the court, but this team certainly isn’t good enough to struggle offensively AND defensively if they want to win games. To Indiana’s credit, they were at least playing very well on defense, and deserve some credit for Michigan’s players feeling they had to force things.

That said, I really like Kelvin Grady as a player. However, I think I’d prefer to see Merritt get the start over him, if only to be a calming force should a shellacking at the hands of the worst team in the conference just so happen to break out. Grady is a better player, Merritt is a better leader. Bringing Grady off the bench also can help spark the team with another offensive option (certainly in terms of drawing the defense and dishing it out). I prefer Merritt preventing damage with his leadership in the first place, rather than coming in as damage control later, when the momentum is out of reach. It just seems like those two roles should be reversed, no?

Gibson’s travel midway through the first half was a terrible call. His left foot is anchored, he pivots, pivots again, and suddenly a travel is called. This sounds like a ridiculously small refereeing point to get worked up over, but it happened to occur right at the moment Indiana really started taking off with all their momentum.

My apologies if you happened to see the draft of this that I accidentally published earlier today. It should be done now, sans the issue with the differentials.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

As has been reported just about everywhere except, oddly, GBW, DeWayne Peace has decommitted from Michigan. I’ll cover this much more in-depth in tomorrows (fairly massive, perhaps resulting in being split up) recruiting post.

And now, I return to hammering out the Indiana Basketball UFR.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Move over Soulja Boy; Big Will Campbell has a new dance for y’all:

Hopefully there will be an instructional YouTube video in the near future.  Formerlyanon suggested this, but if anyone with LSUFreak like skills wants to put Will Campbell’s upper body on Warren Sapp’s legs from Dancing with the Stars, you will be my hero forever.

Posted under Media, Personnel