If LSU goes after Bryce Brown, might it hurt them with TX RB Lache Seastrunk? The Tigers are widely considered to be in Lache’s top 2 with Texas, and less competition might help Michigan’s chances. Also, dude can dunk. That may be a “well, duh” moment, but for somebody who’s generously listed at 5-9, that’s pretty impressive.

GA S Daunte Carr is hearing from several schools, but so far, Michigan isn’t among them. Little Brother and Notre Dame are chasing him, along with various schools across the south.

VA OL Marquis Wallace is hearing from plenty of schools, but Wet Virginia is his only official offer. Michigan is not listed among the schools giving him attention. At this time, it would appear that Clemson and WVU are his top 2.

FL WR Chris Dunkley says he’ll give more attention to the schools that were on him early. He’s also been selected to the ESPNU/UA All-Star game, and has accepted the invitation.

TX DE Reggie Wilson has a fairly interesting backstory, in that he’s from the Ivory Coast. Whichever school he ends up attending is going to have all sorts of puff pieces on SPN broadcasts of their games, a la Penn State’s Tamba Hali a few years ago. Be careful, because this article is already pretty damn puffy. He had 58 tackles, 12 for loss, and 9 sacks last year.

Josh Helmholdt speculates in the Detroit Free Press about who might be the next recruits to drop for Michigan:

Michigan could find themselves the recipient of several more commitments in the coming months. They are being listed as the favorites by several recruits across the country including Columbus (Ohio) Brookhaven defensive end Derrick Bryant, Apopka, Fla., cornerback Lo Wood and Orlando (Fla.) Dr. Phillips wide receiver Kenny Shaw.

This corresponds with the conventional wisdom, though Bryant has recently said he’s changed his mind, and will wait some time before making a decision. Among fluff on Michigan’s existing commits so far, there’s also an interesting tidbit on MI WR Commit Jeremy Jackson:

He could be moved inside as a stand-up tight end because he is physical enough to handle linebackers and would create mismatches for them in the passing game.

That move would make him a speed mismatch as a tight end, rather than a height mismatch from the wideout position. I hadn’t considered it, but it certainly makes sense, and would slightly alter the distribution of commits in the class so far.

OH CB Christian Bryant likes Ohio State and Tennessee. Given his Glenville association, that makes perfect sense (Ohio State gets any Glenville kid they want, and CB Mike Edwards signed with UT last year). Bryant, like most Glenville kids, plans to take his time before making a decision.

I’ve been forgetting to mention this, but OH OL Andrew Norwell committed to Ohio State. He’s been removed from the board.
TX QB Connor/Conner Wood committed to Texas, so hes been removed.

…and now for your dose of epic stupid when it comes to recruiting:

Penn State is either in the drivers seat, or else in great shape, with every single one of those kids except Malik Stokes. It is the consensus that Stokes is incredibly overrated. He has contacts in the media who have inflated him like they inflated his older brother J’ron. Stokes will be a hot commodity because his brother is a year older than him and just committed in a pretty high profile recruitment, since he decommitted from Tennessee and ended up at Michigan.

Somebody doesn’t know the meaning of the word “consensus,” because it’s literally impossible for there to be a consensus that something or someone is overrated. Yes “J’ron” (which one must assume is intended to refer to Je’Ron) was incredibly overrated, which is why his stock went up after the Army All-American bowl, when he was still committed to Tennessee, and before his Comcast special was even proposed, much less filmed. I’m sure your opinion of the Stokes brothers is in no way altered by Je’Ron not giving the Nittany Lions the time of day, even when they tried desparately to get back in on him late in the process. FAIL.

For the record, I think Stokes is nothing more than a second option at QB in the class.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Image from GoBearCats.com

Cincinnati
February 21, 2009
4pm
Brighthouse Field
Clearwater, Fla.
Media:  Audio and  Stats
Home Team: Cincinnati
Probable Pitchers: Travis Smith (0-0) vs Tyler Smith (0-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 4-6
Last Series/Game: Michigan 5 – Cincinnati 2, May 1930

Overview
In the second game for Michigan in the Big10/BigEast Challenge is with the University of Cincinnati BearCats. Despite ending the season one win away from winning the BigEast tournament (39-20 overall record, 19-8 BigEast record), Cincinnati will be the weakest team Michigan will face in the challenge; the BearCats are a team picked by the BigEast coaches to finish in 5th place. As you see above, we haven’t played Cincinnati in recent history. All 10 games were played while Ray Fisher (whom the stadium is named after) was coach, between 1922 and 1930. Records don’t even indicate where the games were played, just the score.

Stars

Mike Spina, Image from GoBearCats.com

Cincinnati returns two key players on offense, both preseason BigEast team members, in senior third basemen Mike Spina and senior right fielder Cameron Satterwhite. Spina is the team’s top returning hitter from a year ago with an average of .377, team leading 79 RBIs, BigEast leading homerun total of 21, and BigEast leading .731 SLUG%. This 45th round draft pick of the Minnesota Twins was a monster. He holds the Cincinnati school record for those home run and RBI totals. A key will be to keep him in the ballpark. Last year, more than half of Spina’s homeruns came in multi-homerun games (he had six games with two home runs). He will most likely batting third in the lineup for the BearCats this season.

Following behind him in the cleanup spot will be Cameron Satterwhite, a name that may ring a bell for some Big10 baseball fans. Satterwhite was originally a commit to Indiana, where he played 21 games in 2006. Michigan didn’t face Indiana that year, but he did bat .371 in 26 games for the Hoosiers. Satterwhite batted .364 last season with 61 RBIs, 14 homeruns, and 21 doubles. Satterwhite may be the most valuable player for the BearCats because he forces teams to pitch to Spina. Hopefully being the second game of the season, we may catch both of these players before they really get their bats going.

Other Starters

Outside of these two, the BearCats also return junior left fielder Jamel Scott. Scott batted .311 last season in the two hole. Most impressively, he was able to swipe 35 stolen bases. He will be a threat every time he reaches base.

There is a chance that Scott may start at second base, he played a few games there last year, and last year’s team leader Josh Harrison graduated, leaving a vacancy. That being said, it does sound like true freshman T.J. Jones will be the starting second basemen. Jones is a small (5’8″) local product, so there is no telling how good he may be.

Also returning is sophomore shortstop Chris Peters. Peters was good enough to start at shortstop from day one on campus, but he did play like a freshman. Peters only bat .241 on the season and committed 12 errors. The final returning starter is the lone left handed bat returning, first baseman Kevin Johnson. Johnson and Peters were consistently the 8 and 9 hole hitters on the team and appear to offer little threat at the plate.  Johnson has good power, knocking 7 homeruns last year, but his average is a measly .250.  He is much better as a fielder though, owning a .991 fielding percentage.  Don’t expect too many balls to get past him.

As of this point, we don’t really know what to expect behind the plate with first year starter and JUCO transfer Jim Jacquot trying to earn and keep his spot. He is described as big enough to handle the job, but he has yet to compete at the D-1 level.

The final outfield slot will be filled by JUCO transfer Lance Durham.  Little is know about him other than hitting .338 last year for Kaskaskia College.  Junior college numbers tend to be a poor way to judge a players ability.  Pitchers in JUCO are either immensely awesome (but they can’t qualify for college or have behavior problems to keep them out of the pros) or immensely awful.  Kaskaskiais a fairly successful program and Durham appears to be one of their top products of late as most others players have just advanced to the D2 level.  Durham was a 6th round draft pick of the Tigers, but forewent signing to finish his degree.

Sophomore Justin Riddell will start the year at designated hitter.  He made 23 starts at DH last year with meh results.  His batting average was only .272 over the 40 games he made appearances in.  Riddell was very streaky last year, recording 10 multi-hit games in 35 starts.  Those games accounted for well over half his hits.

Pitchers

Michael Hill, Image from GoBearCats.com

The BearCats also return three of their top four starters on the mound in senior RHP Michael Hill, junior LHP Brian Garman, and junior RHP Tyler Smith. Michael Hill is the team’s definite ace. Hill went 6-4 last year with a team best 3.46 ERA in 15 appearances (12 starts). He posted 7.25 K/9-innings while maintaining a 16:65 walks to strikeout ratio which is pretty good for a college pitcher. Hill’s average start last season was about 6 1/3 innings, which meant the bullpen can be brought out early. If Hill gets used in their opener against Purdue, they may be breaking out the bullpen early in the classic. This generally leads to great results for opposing offenses.

If Hill is used agaisnt Purdue, my bet is we see Brian Garman. Garman has made some large strides this offseason after having a fairly rough ending to last year. Garman ended the year with a respectable 5-3 record spanning 15 appearances (9 starts). Garman’s problem was his 6.24 ERA and .301 opponent batting average. Garman may be a solid choice to start against the Wolverines due to the high number of left handers in the Michigan lineup (for you non-baseball people out there, statistics suggest that it is harder to hit a person who is the same dominate hand as the batter, such as left handed pitcher to left handed batter).

If it is not Garman, it may be right hander Tyler Smith. Smith was 3-3 in 13 appearances (12 starts) with a 4.27 ERA. Smith is more of a strikeout pitcher with 8.55 K/9-inning, but he also tends to issue more walks (23:50 walk to strikeout ratio).

Update:  Although this was posted today, I received word about an hour ago that Tyler Smith is indeed the starter for our game.  I wish I had more information on him, but alas, I work the hand I’m dealt.

Relief

In relief, Cincinnati returns its top closer and setup man. Senior RHP Jake Geglein, the 2009 team captain, returns with his 3-0 record and 9 saves. His 2.30 ERA, .267 opponent batting average, and 36 Ks in 43 innings are impressive. Geglein is currently 4th all-time at Cincinnati with 11 saves (they aren’t as common in the college game). Setting up Geglein will be Senior RHP Billy Welsh. Welsh only made it into 17 innings in 13 appearances last season, but posted a 1-0 record with 3 saves. His 2.08 ERA and .190 opponent batting averages were a team best.

Links of Various Relevancy

UC Preview Part 1: Overview and Catchers (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 2: Middle Infielders (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 3: Corner Infielders (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 4: Outfielders (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 5: Pitchers (GoBearcats.com, to be released Friday)
Weekend Preview (GoBearCats.com)

Posted under Baseball

Now that is how you start a season right there.  Down 5-2 to start the 8th inning, Michigan loads the bases, scores three runs to tie.   Burgoon comes in to shut down the USF lineup in the top of the 9th.  We get a lead off double to start the ninth.  Kenny Fellows gets just enough of the ball to score the runner from second on a ground ball up the middle.  Game over, pandemonium on the Michigan side of the stands (I can imagine), Michigan Wins! Michigan Wins!

The game started out pretty ugly.  Fetter was roughed up early, giving up 3 runs in the first two innings.  Baserunning was another area we looked pretty bad in.  We were picked off twice by USF starter Randy Fontanez, and we should have been picked off in the 8th, but two bad throws lead to the game tying run coming across the plate.

Things worked out well though.  The bullpen looked good, only giving up 2 runs in 4 innings.  Jake McLouth (brother of major leaguer Nate McLouth) knocked his first career home run in his first career at bat.  The corner outfielders (Urban and Fellows) went 5/6 at the plate with several RBIs, even Lamarre in center added a key RBI single.

All in all, we looked damn good.  I’ll recap the whole weekend on Monday, and take a look at some of the stats a little more in depth.  Now we wait until tomorrow when we face Purdue at 11am.

Posted under Baseball

Back in November, The Blue-Gray Sky made a post evaluating Charlie Weis, whether he had reached his ceiling, etc. While not particularly interesting to the non-ND fan on the whole, there was an interesting idea contained within, and that is giving a coach grades in several key categories. Those chosen by Jeff were Offensive Mind, Defensive Mind, Recruiting, Fundamentals, and Motivation. Their comparison was between Charlie Weis and Lou Holtz, which ended up looking like this:

This is a pretty good representation (though Weis’ offensive mind is clearly overrated – see games against Boston College, Syracuse, San Diego State, USC, etc. – all in his fourth year and with his own recruits). However, I’m obviously not here to talk about Notre Dame coaches, I’m here to apply this concept to Rich Rodriguez.

Offensive Mind – A-

Of course, Rich came to Michigan as an offensive genius, the father of the zone-read offense, engineer of the West Virginia Spread n’ Shred, etc. So how do I not give the man at least an ‘A,’ if not an ‘A+?’ Rich is a very good offensive mind, but he’s very much married to his offensive system, and while he can adapt it somewhat, I don’t see in him the creativity that someone like Chip Kelly brought to Oregon’s (very similar) offense. Maybe down the road, when he gets the personnel he needs, he’ll be a little more creative. however, I’m not sure there was tons of evidence for that in his time at West Virginia, and it remains to be seen if there are many tricks up his sleeve.

Defensive Mind – D+

Rich has never really worried much about defense. He’s put his focus into offense, and hired a defensive coordinator he trusts (or doesn’t trust and fires after one year) to be the “head coach” of the defense. This can be construed as a negative if it doesn’t work out, or a strong positive if it does. Coach Rod does have a reputation for being loyal to his friends from West Virginia, rather than surrounding himself with the best assistants available, so it is something of a weakness.

Recruiting – A-

When you take into account all the media-fueled “turmoil” around the Michigan program, and the negative recruiting that has stemmed from it, Rich has had a great pair of recruiting classes. He’s been able to pull down a pair of top-10 efforts with all the uncertainty around Michigan and the headhunting in the press. Just that alone is worthy of a grade in the A-range. If he’s able to start pulling in annual top-5 or top-3 classes once Michigan starts winning, this grade certainly has upward potential.

Fundamentals – B-

The coaching staff stresses fundamentals, and from everything we know about Rich’s past, he’s very very into teaching fundamentals. However, with Michigan’s play on the field last year, how can he get any better a grade than this? The offensive line in particular improved over the course of the year (and indeed, Greg Frey has the biggest “fundamentals guy” reputation among the coaches), so maybe as the system is installed more, and as the coaches settle in, the fundamental focus will improve.

Motivation – A

You’ve seen the Barwis video. I’ve seen the Barwis video. Barwis may not be Rodriguez, but the two are definitely an inseparable unit, and the motivation that Barwis brings is amazing. Rodriguez himself isn’t such a bad motivator (though, from the sounds of things, he was a little too focused on the stick, and not the carrot at times last spring), and the tandem is amazing motivationally.

When broken into units, it’s easy to see why coach Rodriguez is considered one of the top football leaders in the country. As long as he has a good defensive coordinator to take care of that side of the ball, he should be able to build any team and any program to success in due time.

Anything you don’t agree with? Debate in the comments.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching, Football

Guaranteed to go better than football! –FA

Tribute to the 2009 Season, (most)Images from Blue Cats and Red Sox’s flickr

Spring is in the air. The sun is shining, snow is melting, birds are chirping, and the ping of aluminum bats can be heard in the air. It’s baseball season.

Today marks Opening Day 2009 for your Michigan Wolverines. These guys have been toiling in Oosterbaan, challenging the cold at Ray Fisher Stadium, and studying like crazy, preparing themselves for the next 94 days. In 94 days, we will have a Big10 champion crowned, and maybe, for the fourth year in a row, that champion will be Michigan.

The Wolverines lost a lot this off season. They lost their do-it-all star, Zack Putnam. They lost the biggest bat they’ve had in years, first basemen Nate Recknagel. They lose their captain, short stop Jason Christian. They lose Leif Mahler at second.

But they return the top pitcher north of the Mason-Dixon line, Chris Fetter. They return one of the top senior second basemen in the region, Kevin Cislo. The leadership is there.

They return the entire outfield with Ryan Lamarre, Kenny Fellows, and Alan Oaks. They have the familiar face of Mike Dufek retaining his place at first base. They welcome back the once injured Anthony Toth at shortstop. The defense is solid and the offense loaded.

The expectations are high this year. Some would say too high. Baseball America ($) goes so far to pick Indiana. To quote Alan Oaks,

“Guys see that and are really kinda pissed off about it, actually,” …

“It’s definitely a slap in the face,” fifth year senior tri-captain Tim Kalczynski said … “Especially after we’ve proven ourselves for the past three years. There’s definitely going to be fire in our bellies when we’re playing … It’s going to be good motivation for us.”

Now that’s what you want to hear.

The Challenge

Image from bigeastbigtenchallenge.com

The team starts today at 1pm in Clearwater, Florida witha clash of conferences. The Big10 faces off with the other big time mid major of the north, the BigEast, or at least most of that conference. While the Big10 is sending all 10* of its teams, the BigEast is sending only 8 of 12. #16 Louisville** is the one program missing that I really wish would have made it in the bracket. While it hurts to be missing such a good team in the Challenge, the competition is still much better than the last few opening weeks Michigan has had recently (Villanova, Bethune Cookman, and Troy/South Alabama/Alabama-Birmingham).

The Challenge is in its first year and it will be interesting to see how long it lasts. The timing of the event should work in its favor as it occurs the weekend before the MLB teams start their scrimmages. Those who show up for pitchers and catchers reporting will have a chance to make it out. Some of the alumni invited to Grape Fruit League camps can stop into Tampa pretty easily too. Ticket prices are pretty good too. $10 gets you a full pass to every game. $5 will get you a full day pass. Not bad at all.

Unlike the ACC/Big10 challenge in basketball, the BigEast/Big10 Challenge has teams facing multiple opponents. Each team will face three opponents from the opposing conference. The Big10 teams have also added a game against conference opponents as well just to help the teams get in extra games while helping schools reduce the cost of traveling.

Big10 teams facing each other are picked based on the unbalanced conference season schedule. Each Big10 team misses one conference opponent each year. The opponent rotates every two years, much like the football schedule, but with only one team instead of two. This year, like last, we drew Purdue.

Michigan has drawn South Florida, Cincinnati, and St. John’s on the Challenge schedule. We were lucky to draw such quality competition. The three teams are all expected to finish in the top 5 places in their conference (along with Louisville and Notre Dame). Michigan has a good chance at defeating all three opponents, but you never know in college baseball, especially this early in the year.

Link-fest

Jim Abbott, Image from mgoblue.com

• Formerly on Maizenbrew:  BTN baseball viewing schedule, players lost from 2008 season, offensive players returning, pitchers returning,  new(er) faces and a guess at the lineup/rotation.
• If you’d like to download the Michigan Baseball Schedule for Outlook, Google Calendar, or any other calendar program, go here, copy this file into a Notepad/.txt file. You can import it into your calendar program and every day Michigan plays, you’ll have it on your calendar. For other D1 teams, here’s the full list.
• Team captains Chris Fetter, Tim Kalczynski, and Kevin Cislo are blogging throughout the season. Week One and Week Two were everyday, but it’s slowing to every other week for the rest of the season. Kalczynski is hilarious, Fetter is appreciative of his coaches, and Cislo bounces back and forth. Their latest post describes Coach FungoMan, the ground ball hitting machine.
• Jim Abbott is having his #31 jersey retired this season (hence Kenny Fellows changing #13). Jim Abbott is the greatest one handed pitcher ever to win the World Series. As a matter of fact, he’s the only one handed pitcher to play in the World Series. The guy was a Wolverine great, and if you ever get to see his biography, you should. The story about him facing the Cuban national team was inspiring.
• The preseason weekly release is out (pdf). Interesting note that Alan Oaks does not appear to have earned the starting slot in right field. It lists Nick Urban (former backup second baseman) as the probable starter. Earlier this week I had guessed Oaks in right and Urban at DH. It looks like redshirt freshman catcher Jake McClouth will have a shot at DH’ing to start the year.
• Alumnus Bobby Korecky (2002) was claimed by the Diamondbacks from the Twins. MGoBlue keeps up with the baseball alumni here.

*Wisconsin hasn’t fielded a team since the early 90s
**rankings from USA Today Coaches Poll

Posted under Baseball

The Varsity Blue crew kind of threw me off by posting the USF preview so early, so I’m going to continue that pattern with this preview. I’ll have the Cincy post tomorrow with a general post on the Challenge and what it means to Michigan baseball, as well as college baseball in general. This being a conference opponent, there is a little bit more detail in this than normal. It will hopefully get a little more specific once we get to the actual conference season, when games really start to count.   WordPress is also giving me formatting issues, so bear with for the time being.   –FA

Image from purdue.edu

Purdue*

*not a conference game
February 21, 2009 11:00am
Naimoli Complex
Clearwater, Fla.
Media:  Audio and  Stats

Home Team: TBA
Probable Pitchers: TBA vs Kolby Wood (RHP, 0-0)
M Record vs Opponent: 129-52
Last Series/Game: Michigan won 2 in the Big10 Tournament, last regular season match up was the 2007 series Michigan won 3 games to 1.

Overview

As stated above, this game, despite being against a conference opponent, is not a true conference game. Due to Louisville choosing to play Florida is a better venue than the Challenge, each Big10 team is playing one game against a conference opponent. The way the Big10 schedule works out, Big10 team misses out on one conference opponent per season, much like football does with the two opponents rotating off the schedule every two years. So, for a second year in a row, Michigan does not face Purdue during the regular season. To make up for the differing number of teams from each conference, the Big10 teams opted to face the conference opponent they would not be facing during conference season.

Purdue is coming off a very successful 2008 in which they finished 2nd in the Big10 regular season and was the last competitor to lose in the Big10 Championship. This year they are expected to rival, or even usurp Michigan as the winner of the Big10. Purdue may have lost stars Ryne White and Josh Lindblom, but they return nearly every other player on the team. They are by far the most experienced, and perhaps the best team on paper. That being said, as far as winning the Big10 is concerned, Baseball America puts it this way: “The Boilermakers last won a Big Ten title about the same time the Cubs won a World Series, in 1909.”

Michigan holds a fairly sizable lead in the historical series, as seen above. When we shorten the spectrum to the last 10 games, Michigan leads 8-2 spanning back to 2006. The two losses came closing out the 2006 series and opening the 2007 series (one at school’s home field).

Full preview after the jump…

Read More…

Posted under Baseball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Golden Gophers at 7PM tonight on BTN. The game takes place in Crisler Arena, where some tickets are still available.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website), wherein the Gophers are “O” for “opponent”:

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Michigan and Minnesota are very even teams, with pushes in 3 categories, and only 3 in which there is more than a single-letter advantage. Of course, there is the fact that Minnesota did it against a much easier schedule. However, both teams have struggled in conference play, and it’s hard to make any meaningful comparisons about schedule strength without conference-only numbers. Michigan wants to force the Gophers into turnovers and rebound as many of their own misses as they can. If the Wolverines were to be able to get to the line (which they won’t, because Big Ten refs hate Manny Harris), it would also help out their offensive efficiency. KenPom predicts a 65-63 Wolverines win in a 63-possession game.

Minnesota has a fairly talented team, and if there’s one area Tubby Smith has excelled, it’s bringing in a lot of talent. Guard Lawrence Westbrook takes up most of the Gophers’ possessions, and is the team leader in drawing fouls. Fellow guard Al Nolen is actually the leader in getting to the line for Minnesota, and he leads the team in assists. One thing that the Gophers do very well is get blocks (they lead the nation), and they have three players (Damien Johnson, Ralph Sampson III, and Colton Iverson) in the nation’s top 40. Sampson, a 6-11 center, also leads the team in offensive rating.

After starting the season 16-1, the Gophers have dropped 5 of 8, with two of the wins nailbiters over Indiana (the other was a blowout of Illinois). They are certainly sliding now. The Gophers should be vulnerable, but they’re fighting for their tournament lives, just like the Wolverines. Michigan needs three more regular-season victories for a chance at making the tournament, and the two games against Minnesota are going to be very important unless they pull a big upset somewhere (home to Purdue or @Wisconsin).

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

Half 2

Overtime

Individual Players

Didn’t shoot well, but was still productive on both ends of the court.

Played a lot with Sims in foul trouble. Didn’t score a ton, but did what he needed to do.

Really came on offensively in the second half. Played a solid defensive game, as well.

His inability to handle the rock and (occasionally) to shoot free throw nearly cost Michigan the game, but they probably wouldn’t have been in it without his defense.

Had a few big plays defensively.

Shot kinda poorly, but did the gritty white guy thing.

Offensive liability, and he doesn’t help a ton on the defensive end, either.

Not a big offensive day, and he fouled out on a phantom call. He was big defensively though.

Handled the ball well enough to not be a liability.

Only played when Beilein couldn’t rely on CJ to bring the ball up the court against the press.

Standard day.

The officiating in this game was a special kind of suck. This time, I think the Wolverines got the short end of the stick, and Sims’s 5th foul was an especially egregious call. CJ Lee can’t handle the ball at all, and Kelvin Grady really needs to step up his defense a bunch for the offense to get moving again. Beilein has favoired defense over offense for the past 8+ games, and it’s gotten a few results, but being able to get both halves from one player would be huge.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

Didn’t shoot well, but was still productive on both ends of the court.

Was only on one positive shift (and even that was just +1).

Has a bad differential, but he also played nearly the entire game in a 12-point loss.

Has really found a place on this team as a point guard. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have any offensive game, but he’s great on the other end of the court.

Continued to struggle.

Played admirably against a bigger and more athletic Spartans front line. Alas, he didn’t get any open looks.

Was only on the court during the stretch of death in the first half. He’s an absolute liability on both ends of the court.

Very good job by DeShawn. Probably a product of the defense, but he didn’t have a single midrange attempt.

Led the collapse on offense in the middle of the first half.

Not bad, but not good enough on defense to prove he deserves more playing time.

It appears as though Beilein has sold out for defensive production (Lee, Merritt) at the expense of offensive production. It’s been successful in keeping games close, but it really allows opponents to go on runs when nobody on the court for Michigan can score. The officiating in this game was complete crap, but I think the Wolverines got the better end of the deal.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Image Courtesy of Bullfanshop.com

South Florida

February 20, 2009
1pm
Jack Russell Stadium
Clearwater, Fla.
Home Team: Michigan
Media:  Audio and Stats (via MGoBlue.com)
Probable Pitchers: TBA vs Chris Fetters (0-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 4-6
Last Series/Game: Split in 2001 (1-1)@ USF

Overview

This Friday, the Michigan Wolverine baseball team will open up the 2009 season with the South Florida Bulls in the Big10/BigEast Challenge, held in Clearwater, FL. South Florida is currently ranked as “another team receiving votes” in several polls, including Collegiate Baseball Newspaper’s Fabulous 40, approximately 67th overall. The ranking places them 2nd in the BigEast, one place ahead of last year’s BigEast Champion St. John’s. The BigEast Coaches have voted USF as the 2nd best team in their preseason poll. With all the experience returning this year, including a solid starting rotation and two potential closers, USF is expected to make a run at the NCAA tournament this season.

Last year’s South Florida team was 31-27 overall (14-13 in BigEast play), which was good enough for a 6 seed in the conference tournament. USF managed to upset 3-seed Notre Dame in the first round of play, but eventually lost to 2 seed Cincinnati, forcing them to the losers’ bracket. In the losers’ bracket, USF beat 7 seed West Virginia, then lost again to Cincinnati again. Last year’s team was one dominated by freshmen and sophomores, many at key starting positions.

The Stars

The biggest returning stars for the USF team are center fielder Ryan Lockwood and super-utility player Stephen Hunt. Lockwood (bats left/throws right) was a Freshman All American (Rivals, Baseball America, Louisville Slugger, National Collegiate Baseball Writer’s Association, and Ping! Baseball) last year, posting a .415 batting average overall (.454 in conference play). The All-BigEast preseason outfielder is currently riding a 30-game hitting streak (cut short due to a season ending broken finger against St. John’s). Lockwood is also a threat on the bases, stealing 12 in 16 attempts. He had been batting in the three hole during most of the season despite his low power numbers. Lockwood is an early candidate for BigEast Player of the Year and, like our very own Chris Fetters, the 2009 Brooks Wallace Award Watch List (pdf of list). Following Lockwood in the order, usually in the fifth hole was Stephen Hunt (bats left/throws left), a 7th round draft pick in 2007. Hunt was the designated hitter in most games he played in. Hunt’s role on the team was much like Zack Putnam of the recent Michigan teams. Hunt, while predominantly the DH, also worked as a setup man and occasional closer for the team; he also played some first base. Hunt batted .331 for the season (.323 in BigEast play) with 3 home runs and 38 runs batted in.

Ryan Lockwood, Freshman of the Year, Image from GoUSFBulls.com

The Bulls also feature one of the nations top freshmen this year. Shortstop Sam Mende (bats right/throws right), 40th round pick by the Yankees this year, will likely start, replacing three year starter Addison Maruszak. Mende was a four year All-State player at Clearwater Central Catholic HS in Clearwater, FL. This game will be played just a few miles from where Mende played high school ball. Mende was the team captain from his sophomore to his senior year, leading his team to the state semifinals his sophomore year, and the championship his junior year. Mende was also the hero of the USF “Fall World Series,” a intrasquad scrimmage held during fall practice.

The Returners

USF has five other returning starters on defense. Senior catcher Trey Manz (bats left/throws right) will be the one of the most important contributors to the Bulls team this season. With so many underclassmen pitchers, Manz has put in great effort this offseason to become a better player. Coach Prado gave an internet interview last semester saying, “I am happy that [Trey] Manz gained 20 pounds and is in great shape.” There had some speculation surrounding last year’s commitment from Miami catcher Adriano Neito, who reneged on a commitment to play for the Washington Nationals. Some had expected him to take over the catching duties from Manz this season. From Coach Prado’s interview, it appears Manz continued to push himself to get better in order to seal his spot as starting catcher.

Also returning will be sophomore third (formerly second) basemen Jonathon Koscso (bats right/throws right). Koscso, one of only two players to start every game for the Bulls, was primarily the nine hole hitter, posting a respectable .276 batting average. Two other outfielders also return in senior Mike Consolmango (bats left/throws left) and junior Chris Rey (bats right/throws right). Consolmango is a 4 year starter with a .264 batting average in 141 games. Rey is a second year starter with a .274 batting average and 35 RBIs.

The last returning starter is first/third basemen Brandon Smith (bats left/throws right). Smith missed the end of the season last year (about 1/3 of the season) with a “right arm injury,” but managed to bat for a .288 average with 22 RBIs. USF lacks a true third basemen on their team, so he may be relegated to play third while Hunt plays first.

Hunt’s services as a reliever will be needed less, so he may be used at first more often. If that doesn’t happen, expect Smith to start at first base. In this case, the Bulls may move Koscso to third base, opening room for junior Peter Brotons (bats left/throws right) at second base. Brotons is a junior college transfer with great success at that level on the Dayton State Falcons. Another option would be redshirt freshman Jordy McGillis, who is listed as just an “infielder.” Going into the offseason, the idea was to have true freshman Sean Buckley (bats right/throw right) make starts at first base, but unfortunately, Buckley suffered an injury that warrants the use of a medical redshirt for his freshman year.

Pitching

Pitching is the true strength of the Bulls team, in particular, the rotation. Last year’s rotation was led by then freshman Randy Fontanez (RHP) and Derrick Stultz (RHP). Fontanez had thirteen appearances (all starts), logging 81.1 innings and 58 strikeouts. His five wins was good for a tie for the team lead. The second major starting pitcher returning was Derrick Stultz, who primarily was the Sunday starter for coach Prado. Stutlz was the most consistent pitcher for the Bulls last year, making 10 starts and 2 relief appearances, stretching 64.1 innings. His 3.08 ERA lead the team, while his 53 strikeouts ranked third. Stutlz also boasted South Florida’s only complete game last season against the BigEast Champion St. John’s. We will probably face on of these two pitchers to start. There is a chance we may see Sophomore righthander Matt Stull, who ended the season strong, earning a team tying high of five wins.

Randy Fontanez, Image from mnmathletics.com

South Florida also features a decent bullpen. Last year’s closer was then sophomore/now junior Shawn Sanford (RHP) who was 5-5 for the year with 11 saves in 33 appearances (46.2 innings). Sanford has collected quite a few accolades in his time with the Bulls including: drafted in the 43rd round of the 2006 draft, NCBWA Stopper of the Year Watch List in 2007, Roger Clemens Award Preseason Watch List – 2008, Brooks Wallace Award Preseason Watch List – 2008, NCBWA Stopper of the Year Preseason Watch List – 2008, Rivals.com 2008 Preseason All-Conference Team – 2008, and NCBWA Stopper of the Year Midseason Watch List – 2008. Even with this success, Sanford was used as a starter to end the 2008 season. He made 2 starts to end the year, neither was very successful. He has been mentioned by Coach Prado as in the mix for the remaining weekend starter position.

To replace him at closer, Coach Prado plans to use Louisville transfer Andrew Salgueiro (Jr RHP). Salgueiro transferred to USF in 2007 when Coach Prado changed jobs (markedly strange as Louisville made the tournament that year). At Louisville in 2006, Sagueiro pitched 18 innings over 16 appearances, striking out 20. Playing the Valley League this summer, he struck out 28 in 23.2 innings. Something to keep in mind with Sagueiro is despite striking out so many, he also gives up many many runs. His ERA in his year at Louisville was 4.50, this summer it was 4.18. He appears to be a high risk/high reward type of closer, which isn’t uncommon in college. South Florida has several other pitchers capable of filling in during the middle innings, but not many have had great success.

The remaining returners in the bullpen all have ERAs ranging from 4.63 to 10.18. Being early in the year, I don’t expect too many of the starters to go that deep into games. Hopefully Michigan will be able to knock the starters out early and get into the middle relief.

Other Links of Various Relevancy

2009 Bulls Magazine (pdf)
Interview with Coach Prado (The College Baseball Blog)
USF Website Preview (gousfbulls.com)

Obligatory USF picture for no other reason than this blog has lacked tits, don’t ever expect them again:

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