The final part in a series that I started (and accidentally abandoned) a long time ago. The other teams of comparison were Minnesota 2007, Alabama 2007, and Nebraska 2004.

Notre Dame and Michigan’s 2007 and 2008 seasons, respectively, were somewhat similar. Does that mean Michigan is doomed to follow in the Irish’s footsteps and finish 6-6 in their next season? Let’s take a look at why or why not. First, there’s a comparison between the actual teams. As Brian explored on MGoBlog, despite the same record, Notre Dame’s season of terror was much more… terrible… than Michigan’s. So, although this post is primarily predictive, it’s important to note that Michigan’s year was nowhere near the disaster that ND’s was.

Another key difference between the two teams: 2007 was Weis’ third year in South Bend. He was playing with mostly his recruits (after doing all of his winning with Willingham’s oddly-lamented recruiting classes), at least the ones who hadn’t left after committing to Weis, spending two years in his program, earning starting jobs, and STILL hating the whale enough to ditch his program.

The Better

Michigan’s offense, though significantly better than Notre Dame’s, was full of first-time starters (every single player except for one – Steve Schilling), many of whom were never expected to contribute. The offensive line, in particular, didn’t have the accolades or experience of Notre Dame’s comparable unit, and they still managed to perform much better (as in “didn’t give up an NCAA record in sacks”). When you take into account that every single offensive player who had a meaningful role on the team (except Sam McGuffie, who missed much of the year with injury and was out when the offense started to, like, function) is back, and Notre Dame didn’t have quite that luxury between 2007 and 2008, it’s certainly a good sign for Michigan.

Michigan’s defense was supposed to be its strong suit in 2008, and that didn’t quite come to fruition. However, Michigan will be returning some of its most talented players on defense – defensive end Brandon Graham, corner Donovan Warren, and linebacker Obi Ezeh – and they are loking to build on that success.

The Worse

The quarterback situation for Michigan coming off 2008 is much wore than Notre Dame’s was the previous year. Though Jimmy Clausen had a horrible first year in South Bend, he was still the #1 overall recruit in the nation for a reason. Steven Threet, on the other hand (should he choose to stay) is a more limited, though still talented, player. If Michigan has to start a true freshman (or even a sophomore Threet), it will be a step down from a sophomore Clausen.

Michigan also lost its defensive coordinator, which can be seen as a blessing and a curse. Scott Shafer’s defense wasn’t the world-beater it was built up as before the season, but Michigan’s defense will still have to learn from its third coordinator in as many years, which certainly increases the likelihood of missed assignments, etc. Of course, GERG did beat the Irish in their house last year.

The Verdict

Halfway through last year, emulating ND’s two-year stretch might have been a pretty good goal for Michigan. The head-to-head win in the series, and a path to an 8-4 record (and therefore, ridiculously, a BCS bowl) seemed to be well within ND’s grasp. Then, of course, they fell flat on their faces, getting GERGed and not even registering a first down against USC until the third quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s noted track record of success and actual support (in the form of opinions) from people in the know would certainly seem to imply that the Wolverines aren’t headed for an extended down period like the Irish may be.

With Michigan’s fairly unique situation last year, particularly for a first-year coach, they were set up for a pretty special kind of suck. Notre Dame’s 2007 team, in all honesty, shouldn’t have been. With a year under the RR regime, a hell of a lot more experience, and some new recruits coming in, the Wolverines should be disappointed with a season like Notre Dame’s. Of course, expecting much better might be setting up unreasonable expectations (8 winsis a reasonable goal).

Posted under Analysis, Coaching, Football

Semi-light update today because I got impatient last week, and gave 2 recruiting updates when I really didn’t need to. The Board.

I have no idea how he wasn’t added already (probably because I forgot to), but LaTwan Anderson, a friend of Jerald Robinson and a speedy, hard-hitting safety, has been offered by Michigan. I’ve belatedly added him to the board.

PA RB Corey Brown (not to be confused with 2009 PA CB Corey Brown, an Ohio State commit) has been selected to the Army All-American game for next year.

GA QB/DB Barry Bostic almost committed to Georgia Tech on his visit, and it seems like he might do just that before long.

TX QB Connor/Conner Wood is going to make his decision within the next week or so. He’s only visited schools in Texas and Oklahoma, so one must assume the Wolverines won’t be considered. Look for him to be removed from the board very soon, when he picks Oklahoma (most likely) or Texas/a dark horse.

With two DTs already in their class of 2010, the Longhorns probably won’t offer TX DT Jay Guy. The ‘Horns were considered to be one of his favorites, despite the lack of offer. Michigan has offered, and he’ll probably be their top DT target in the 2010 class. Per BON:

recruiting at the position is probably finished unless the coaches want to go after an OOS stud or decide to offer Jay Guy, a kid who really likes Texas, but doesn’t seem likely to get an offer right now.

(emphasis mine). Keep it in mind, because I think the Wolverines are near the top of his list.

Snippet from SI on FL CB Lamarcus Joyner:

he recently said five teams have jumped out early on his list — Florida, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame and Ohio State. He reports offers from all those teams.

Michigan is notably absent, but theres no mention of a timeframe.

FL OL Torrian Wilson likes Michigan (info in header).

FL OL Chaz Green has been offered by Michigan.

Added SC QB Kersean Wilson, who is apparently hearing from Michigan. Also from that article: keep an eye on as-yet-unsigned 2009 RB prospect Larry Raper. The Clemson decommit is giving Michigan a hard look.

Removed:
TX LB Aaron Benson to Texas.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

After being the subject of rumor for the past week-plus, Steven Threet has officially told the press that he plans to transfer from Michigan. Threet was the starting quarterback for large portions of 2008, and was actually quite successful when healthy. It’s a shame to see the young man leave, but you really can’t blame the kid, as he really wants to play, and do so in a scheme that fits his skill set.

The Threet transfer probably does mean one positive thing for Michigan fans: that Tate Forcier has looked good enough in the training program and volunatary QB-WR workouts as to pose a significant threat to Threet’s starting position. Of course, it also means bad things, like “Michigan only has 2 quarterbacks between safety and Nick Sheridan.” The QB depth situation becomes almost as bad as it was last year, though the second option (likely to be Denard Robinson) is a step up from either Sheridan or Justin Feagin.

This clears out the depth chart somewhat for a class of 2010 prospect to find it quite appealing (Devin Gardner, come on down!), but harms Michigan in the short term. Wherever Threet ends up (rumors have said Eastern Michigan, under former Michigan DC Ron English), I certainly wish him the best of luck.

Posted under Football, Personnel, Recruiting, Spring Coverage

Getting started right around 3, when the game starts on BTN.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

The Wolverines take on Just Northwestern at 3PM Sunday in Evanston. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

The Wolverines took home a 68-59 victory in Crisler Arena that really wasn’t as close as the final score would seem to indicate. Michigan completely owned the boards on both ends (one of the few times they’ve been able to do so this season). More telling was the Wildcats’ shooting, particularly from 3-pt land. They were 10-27, including 4-13 from Craig Moore. DeShawn Sims and Kelvin Grady(!) led the god guys in scoring, and Manny Harris had a relatively quiet game, outside of his game-high 12 rebounds.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s ability to shoot the rock has continued to wane. Their ability to rebound it has increased, however, especially on the defensive end. Unsurpisingly, given the nature of their valiant efforts in losses to UConn and Michigan State, they have continued to slide in overall offensive efficiency, while their defensive numbers have gotten much better. Kelvin Grady,th Wolverines’ second-leading scorer the first time around, has been basically benched by John Beilein. The Wildcats have wins against Indiana and Chicago State and a loss to Illinois, which are basically neutral (excepting, of course, the total FAIL of their collapse against the Illini). They have a win against Wisconsin (positive) and a loss against Iowa (very, very negative) in that stretch as well. The Wildcats have gotten better at shooting in the meantime, but have also allowed opponents to shoot much, much better. Northwestern’s overall efficiencies on both ends have gotten worse.

And?…

If Michigan wants to win, they can’t count on Craig Moore to shoot poorly, especially in his own house (whatever the insignificant Northwestern basketball venue is called). They should certainly exploit their advantages in rebounding and overall athleticism. Getting to the line (especially off the offensive glass) should be the name of the game. Two big intangible factors will come into play in this contest: 1) Northwestern’s complete collapse against Illinois (especially with just a couple days’ turnaround), and 2) Michigan’s extended rest period, a situation which has served them well so far this year. Still, Michigan has struggled on the road this year, and though they have plenty of experience against the 1-3-1, Northwestern can beat anybody on any given night. On the other hand, they can also lose to anybody. Sound familiar?

Posted under Basketball

With the 2010 recruiting year already underway (several teams already have commits), the 2009 class isn’t quite wrapped up for a few teams. Minnesota has been reportedly communicating with 4* RB Trabis Ward, and Michigan is still talking (just starting?) with 3* ATH Larry Raper.

That said, within the next week (who knows? maybe even today), I’ll start publishing 2010 recruiting class rankings, and hopefully the final 2009 rankings will take place soon enough.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

When Will Campbell was being interviewed they had him step off the stage, so he wouldn’t be too tall for the cameras.  Will’s personality, his bubbliness and goofiness remind me a lot of Terrance Taylor.

 

 Will Campbell Signing Day Interview: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Posted under Personnel, Video

Jim Stefani has a few QBs of interest to add to the recruiting board:

Barry Brunetti QB 6′1 206 4.65 Memphis University School Tennessee
Anthony Gonzalez QB/DB 6′2 193 Bethlehem Liberty Pennsylvania
Ricardo Young QB/ATH 6′0 155 4.78 Washington Woodson D.C.
Kain Colter QB/WR/DB 6′1 185 4.60 Greenwood Village Cherry Creek Colorado
Gavin Webster QB/DB 6′0 200 4.45 Lutcher Louisiana
Santez Emory QB 6′3 200 4.57 Franklin Heard County Georgia

…and also some good information on a few guys who are already there, so check out the article.

GA QB Barry Bostic has been offered by Georgia Tech, and they are his new leader (info in header).

Fluff on 2009 WR Commit Cameron Gordon, which also mentions his class of 2010 teammate, QB Devin Gardner:

Next year it will be Devin Gardner’s turn to celebrate his college choice with the Inkster faithful. The Vikings’ star quarterback could be throwing passes to Gordon at U-M or be the opposition if Gardner chooses to attend Ohio State, a school so high on him that head coach Jim Tressel visited recently and watched Gardner play in Inkster’s basketball game against Wyandotte Roosevelt…

“I was pretty excited at first,” said the 6-foot-5, 200-pound Gardner of the Tressel visit. “My heart was beating really fast, but as the game went on I just settled down and played within the team. I like basketball, but football is my first love.

Despite Tressel’s visit, Gardner is still not sporting an Ohio State offer.

The “other” instate QB, OLSM’s Robert Bolden, was recently the feature of an article by Sam Webb in the Detroit News. It’s pretty clear that Gardner is probably a higher priority for the staff (and with good reason), but Bolden might be a good fallback guy in the class.

The Free Press has an early in-state top-10 for next recruiting year, and The Sporting News had a national top-10 like substance. Gardner is on both lists, and Bolden is on the former while FL WR Commit Ricardo Miller is on the latter. From the former, I’ve added MI RB Chris Robinson from Ovid-Elsie to the Recruiting Board.

While we’re on the topic of early top-X lists, how about top-30 offerings from two of the biggest football counties in south Florida. Broward top-30, and Miami-Dade top-30.

Some Rivals fluff on VA QB Phillip Sims, who is still not mentioning Michigan (though he does talk about West Virginia). With his insistence on playing in a pro-style scheme, and no mention of the Wolverines yet, his tenure on the board may be close to coming to an end.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

Easily the player of the game. Was ice cold (in a good way) from 3.

Didn’t score a lot, but did some very good work on both sides of the ball.

Kind of a rough day matching up against some really athletic defenders. Limited his turnover a bit, though he’s still committing too many.

Doesn’t do a lot of scoring, but his defensive effort and steady work at point(!) were a huge part of Michigan staying in this game. Forced several turnovers.

Continued to struggle. Really would be well-served by sitting out a game, I think.

Not Zack’s best work, and he was in foul trouble for most of the game. I guess that’s to be expected when you’re playing the 4 at 6-5 against one of the bigger teams on the schedule.

Seemed to be a non-factor, but he may have ctually been worse than I remembered. The plus/minus doesn’t even include a couple times he was pulled after committing a foul.

Dude killed it, considering he was matched up against Thabeet and various other trees.

Hit a meaningful shot, and didn’t really screw anything up. That’s a pretty good performance for him.

Other: Puls 2min -2

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Surprisingly, there wasn’t a shoving match in order to get to Mike Jones. Apparantly he seemed hesitant or nervous on WTKA, but he sounded comfortable and excited here. I apologize for the lack of good questions. I was sort of a one man show at this point:

 

 Mike Jones Signing Day Interview: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Posted under Personnel, Video