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Preview: Arizona

Times have been adjusted as I thought it was Mountain Time, not Mountain Standard Time, which is currently Pacific Daylight Time. Arizona doesn’t use daylight savings time. Ridiculous.

Arizona

from arizona.edu

10pm Friday, 7pm Saturday, 2pm Saturday (all EDT)
Jerry Kindall Field
Tuscon, AZ

Media Game 1: Live Stats, Audio, and Video ($*)
Probable Starters Game 1: Chris Fetter (2-0)
Media Game 2: Live Stats, Audio, and Video
Probable Starters Game 2: Eric Katzman (2-1)
Media Game 3: Live Stats, Audio, and Video
Probable Starters Game 3: Travis Smith (2-1)
Series:  Arizona leads 42-12
Last Meeting:  Michigan 3, Arizona 4, 2008 Regional in Ann Arbor

*Video requires at least paying a $9.95 monthly subscription for buy it — as it is automatically renewed each month.  It also requires you to download Microsoft Silverlight 2.0.  I really wish Michigan would expand its sports coverage to this level.

Overview

The Arizona Wildcats are a middle of the road Pac10 team, picked to finish 5th by the coaches, with a current record of 8-7 including a three game sweep by #9 Georgia and a 2 game sweep by #11 Oklahoma State.  Those two sweeps are why they still sit so high in RPI (#61) despite the record.  The Wildcats haven’t really played anyone I would say that compares closely to Michigan.  Most teams they have played are either top 15 or bottom 150.

Offense

Unlike many of the teams Michigan has faced so far, Arizona doesn’t have that one guy that makes the offense click.  They, instead, use a combined team effort to produce runs.   They currently have 9 batters of the 13 players seeing regular playing time with batting averages over .300.  Due to the inconsistency in the lineup, I’m not sure what to expect going into the weekend.

I imagine second basemen Rafa Valenzuela will keep his lead off role this weekend.  He is leading the team in hitting at .378, but he’s only started in 10 of the 15 games so far.  He’s not much of a threat on the bases, currently 2/3 on stolen base attempts.

The current RBI leader for the Wildcats is third basemen Jett Bandy with 15.  Bandy has played in 14 of Arizona’s 15 games, batting anywhere from 3rd to 6th.  He’s only batting .296, but he also leads the team in doubles with eight.

At the bottom of the order, Bryce Ortega has provided consistency at shortstop in his 14 starts.  Ortega has hit .327 with a team high 17 runs scored.  He’s second on the team with 13 RBIs.

Bobby Coyle is the only player to start every game this season.  The centerfielder is only batting .284 with 10 RBIs and 12 runs scored.

Pitching

Starting pitching has been a real weakness for the Wildcats this year.  I can’t make heads or tails of their rotation so far, and the Arizona website hasn’t announced probable starters yet either.  Last week saw their coach try two new starters, neither of which did particularly well against #11 Oklahoma State.

Coming into the season, Arizona was looking to set up the rotation around three pitchers, Preston Guilment, Matt Veltmann, and Donn Roach.  So far on the season, they have a combined record of 3-5 and 6.30 ERA.  Guilmet has had the best success of the three, going 16 innings in 3 starts, posting a 1-1 record and 5.76 ERA.  He also sports a 7:15 walk-to-strikeout ratio.  The other two are averaging just over 3 innings per start.

Freshman Kyle Simon also made three starts for the Wildcats.  In his three starts, Simon has gone 10 2/3 innings, allowing 13 runs (9 earned), on 17 hits and 5 strike outs.  He also had a long relief appearance against Georgia, going 4 innings giving up 8 hits and 3 runs.  His ERA currently sits around 6.75.

Relief pitching has been used early and often this season for Arizona.  Cody Burns, a right handed senior, has already made 12 appearances this season.  His numbers haven’t been the best this season, giving up 8 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings pitched with 8 walks and 21 strike outs.  His overall appearances have been hampered by poor fielding to the tune of 6 unearned runs.

Jason Stoffel has been the bright spot in the bullpen.  As their closer, he has seen work in 9 games, striking out 22 in 16 innings.  He has three saves on the season, and has been impressive in each outing.  His 1.60 ERA is by far the best on the team.

Outlook

I think Michigan may be able to win 2 of 3 in this series, which should really help with the RPI.  The game I’m least optimistic about is the Eric Katzman start.  I’m not saying I expect us to lose, but its the game I’m least certain about.  Chris Fetter should be his normal self and I’m really liking what I’m seeing from Travis Smith lately.  The bullpen will be well rested as we didn’t have a midweek game.

It will be interesting to see who catches most of the games in this series.  As it stands, Berset is currently listed as fourth on the depth chart at catcher.  I can’t say I saw that coming, but with the emergence of Coley Crank and Jake McLouth as offensive forces, and Timmy Kalcynzski’s leadership, Berset has seen himself drop from solid starter to 4th string in a matter of weeks. Chris Berset remains out with a broken thumb (as pointed out by JJ in the comments).  Crank hit extremely well last week, McLouth could make an appearance there, or team captain Timmy Kalczynski, who is listed as probable starter in the weekly release may be used.  [updated after comment made by JJ]

Other Note

Saturday is “Club Arizona Kid’s Day” which sounds violent, but is actually a pretty good deal for any person under the age of 18, as tickets are $1 and other activities are held throughout the ball park.

Posted under Baseball

Big House, Big Noise

Tonight, between 3:30 and 7:00 PM, the University will perform a sound test in Michigan Stadium to determine how the addition of massive structures along either sideline will affect the venue’s acoustics. The purpose of the 140db “cannon shot” isn’t to measure the added volume from crowd noise fto the players on the field (it’s it’s to plan speaker placement for the PA system), but it certainly can provide some information, however obliquely related.

To the crowd-noise-obsessed Michigan fan, this calls to mind the Oversized Metallic Dandelion from last year’s Minnesota game. Associate Architecture Professor Mojtava Navvab was attempting to determine the difference in crowd noise that adding boxes would cause. The results were something along the lines of “2-4 times as loud,” and though I’m sleptical on that degree of difference, 1) I do not have a graduate degree in architecture, and 2) Even without glass last year, the difference in sound was noticeable.

Of course, the Athletic Department is not actively trying to increase crowd noise with the boxes (at least not as their primary goal), so they likely won’t pursue ways in which crowd noise in particular will increase with the added structures. However, if they wanted to really impact the noise on the field, the most effective way to do so would be encouraging fans to make more noise in the first place.

I’m not a fan of my college football events being Minor League Hockey, as Brian would say (translation: RAWK MUSIC, hokey pump up videos, etc.), but there are ways that the AD could promote a louder environment without delving into the corny. Other schools in the Big Ten take this a bit too far, Sparty, Ohio State, and Penn State among them – though I think it’s no coincidence that the latter two have the best homefield advantages in the conference, but there is a happy medium. Pump up videos are unnecessary, but the banner-shaped video board along the bottom of the scoreboards can be used for evil (a word which here means “good”). Step 1) Stop encouraging the GD3DKPT, also known as “God Damn Third Down Key Play Thingy.”  Step 2) Change the message on the board, not only during third down, but all defensive downs, to something simple like “Make some NOISE!”

I’ll wrap this post up before it gets off on too much of a tangent (that i’ve covered several times before), but, uh yeah. Sound test in the Big House tonight, huh?1

Posted under Football

UFR: Iowa III

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 7:21 12-7 +5
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims :19 2-0 +2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :55 3-2 +1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims :57 5-0 +5
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Shepherd, Sims 2:13 3-6 -3
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :29 0-0 0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:22 0-0 0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:01 3-2 +1
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:04 12-0 +12
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Sims 1:19 0-2 -2
Totals 20:00 40-19 +21

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:56 7-7 0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:07 7-2 +5
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Gibson 2:23 2-4 -2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Novak, Sims :09 0-0 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Novak, Sims :52 0-0 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 6:07 11-6 +5
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:03 2-2 0
Grady, Douglass, Wright, Shepherd, Gibson 2:36 4-3 +1
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Shepherd, Puls :47 0-2 -2
Totals 20:00 33-26 +7

Individual Players

Stu Douglass 25min +21
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 1/1 0/2 2/2

On a day when Michigan blows out the opponent on the strength of ridiculous performances from the big 2, Stu wasn’t noticeable.

Zack Gibson 9min 0
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 2/3
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 0/1

On a day where Michigan wins running away, a non-positive differential would typically be a bad sign. However, Sims was the main reason for the blowout victory, so Gibson can’t really be knocked.

Manny Harris 34min +32
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/1 1/2 1/1 1/1
Midrange 1/1
3-pt 1/3 2/2

Dude. Look at that differential number. Manny was on fire from the field, particularly from 3. Of course, most of his attempts came after the game was well in hand, but… dude.

CJ Lee 21min +7
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1
Midrange
3-pt 0/1

Very good defense, and made a bunch of good plays on offense, despite not shooting very much. I credit him with 7 assists (or unconverted assists). Maybe he wasn’t quite as good as I remembered (his making an offensive play could have shocked me into thinking he was doing very well), because his differential isn’t the greatest, but I’ll take it.

Laval Lucas-Perry 15min +9
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 0/1 1/1 2/2

He didn’t do much slashing to the hole (which he’s been very good at of late), but I’ll take this LLP every game, especially considering he made bunch of good drive and kick plays.

Zack Novak 31min +36
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1
Midrange
3-pt 1/1 0/1

OMFG look at that differential. He didn’t get a ton of usage, but playing against taller players every game, you’d expect him to be at a slight disadvantage in terms of differential. He didn’t participate in a single negative shift.

Jevohn Shepherd 5min -4
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

No shots, and a very small sample size prevent me from criticizing Shepherd. I didn’t even get to type “Very good athleticism and very bad basketball skills” in the shot chart once. What a disappointment.

DeShawn Sims 30min +30
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 3/4 4/4
Midrange 4/6
3-pt 1/2

Easily the player of the game. Started out unstoppable, scoring Michigan’s first few buckets. Dominated Cyrus Tate inside.

David Merritt 18min +19
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 1 1/1

Nothing truly noteworthy. It’s more his steady presence than anything tangible that Merritt helps being to the team.

Kelvin Grady 3min -1
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Tiny sample size and no shots = no conclusion drawn.

Anthony Wright 8min -5
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Played few enough minutes that his differential isn’t troubling, especially considering much of his time came when the game was already decided (i.e. after the first 5 minutes)..

Eric Puls 1min -2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 0/1

OMG he missed a three. YANK HIS SCHOLLIE. uninteresting junk time appearance for Eric.

Jerry’s Final Thoughts
During Football season, Dr. Saturday came up with a method of determining whether Oklahoma was running up the score to pass Texas in the BCS. The general idea was as follows:

  1. Figure out how many points losing team scores.
  2. Figure out when winning team reaches this score.
  3. Determine from game margin and time left whether winning team was running up the score.

Iowa scored 45 points in this game. Michigan reached 45 points (passed it actually, reaching 47 on a 3-pointer from Stu Douglass) with 16:15 left in the game, leading 47-26. So yeah, this was a certified blowout. I don’t believe quite as much in “running up the score” in college basketball as I do in football, especially when the winning team is on the bubble and making its case for the tournament. But still, this was dominating in every way.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Mission Accomplished!

We're Going Dancing!

The path had been set for a while.  Since home February 19th when Michigan beat Minnesota at home, the formula was set: win two of four and one in the Big Ten Tournament. After Iowa it didn’t look like it was going to happen, and then Michigan stunned Purdue and came back against Minnesota.

The stage was set for everything to come together.  They had to play then team that almost ruined the dream.  This time, they didn’t feel like letting the refs have any impact on the outcome.

Michigan could have stopped scoring with 16 minutes left in the second half and still won the game.  It was barely even a contest.

The variables are set and Michigan is in the Tournament.  Let’s think about this for second. In John Beilein’s second year, after only winning 10 games the previous year, with only about two and half players taller than 6’7″, Michigan is in the tournament.


The start of the game was everything a Michigan fan could hope for. The team fed DeShaun Sims every time down the court and got rewarded with Peedi scoring the first 14 points for the good guys.

They slowed down Sims a little (mainly because he went to the bench), but then the 3pt shots started to fall.  Michigan shot over 70% in the first half to Iowa’s mid 30%.  It was over at the half.

The second half was more of the same with Manny getting his rythm from 3.  Hopefully this will carry over to the Illinois game.  It’s not a must win, but this is the best I’ve seen this team play, and if they continue to play like this they can beat anyone in the Big Ten and a good number of teams in the national field.

Sims was owning a bigger player. The spacing was perfect. Manny was able to work some amazing pick and rolls with Peedi.  The defense forced 16 turn overs and was able to run out on most of them.  The only thing I can complain about this game is that Sims should have dunked more.

Michigan 73 – Iowa 45

Enjoy this game, and get out your dancing shoes!

Posted under Basketball

Devin Gardner Goes Blue

According to Rivals and Scout, Devin Gardner, a dual-threat quarterback from the class of 2010, has pledged his word to become a Michigan Wolverine. Gardner hails from Inkster High School, and measures 6-4, 200, with a 4.50 second 40-yard dash.

Recruiting Notes
2010 Michigan Wolverine Devin GardnerGardner appeared on Michigan fans’ radar in the summer of 2008, when he transferred from UD Jesuit to Inkster. He performed at Michigan’s 2008 summer camp as both a quarterback and a wide receiver. The staff liked him at both positions, and offered him as a QB shortly after the Rich Rodriguez 7-on-7 competition. Though Gardner had grown up a Buckeyes fan, he remained open to any school that gave him interest. Give them interest he did, as schools from LSU to Michigan to West Virginia mailed the dual-threat QB official offers. When the Buckeyes told him he wasn’t their top choice in January, he abruptly removed Ohio State from his list, and many speculated that Michigan would take over the top spot. Gardner made his meta-announcement early last week shortly before he took an unofficial to Michigan’s Day.  his actual announcement came today, when he picked out the maize-and-blue hat.

Player Notes
Gardner is a big mobile QB in the Vince Young/Terrelle Pryor mold. In fact, he is often described as “The (Vince Young OR Terrelle Pryor) of the Class of 2010.” He runs like a deer, and has exceptionally quick feet, which he 2010 Michigan Wolverine Devin Gardneruses to escape pursuers. His throwing mechanics need a lot of work, as he has a low/sidearm release, much like that of Vince Young. Through all  his current shortcomings as a player, it is important to remember that he is only a high school Junior, and it will be at least a year and a half before he hits FieldTurf: he has plenty of time to work on them (and poor mechanics didn’t seem to hurt Vince Young that much, either). On top of the tangible skills that can be quantified or easily observed, many talent evaluators have branded him with having that indescribable “it factor.” In his junior season, Devin threw for 1,886 yards, 28 touchdowns (several of them to class of ’09 Michigan commit Cameron Gordon), and 7 interceptions. He ran for 1,401 yards and 22 touchdowns. As previously mentioned, he is a bit raw, but will receive plenty of coaching when he gets to Ann Arbor. Gardner will likely be the more highly-rated quarterback in Michigan’s class of 2010, so he will likely hit the field as a freshman.

Video
Hey! A Varsity Blue original!

Posted under Football, Recruiting

1 Game, 10 Years

Queme los barcos.

¡Go Blue!

Posted under Basketball

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Baseball (Last) Weekend Update

Reminder, Tim’s basketball preview can be found below.

Sorry for the prolonged absence right as things got started, but sometimes real life just jumps in the way. As for the baseball team, they continued without me, to a rather successful weekend.  I’ll get the game recaps out of the way first, then get a couple of the usual mid week updates out of the way as well.

Michigan 11, Siena 3
Box Score
W -Chris Fetter (2-0) L – Chaput (1-1)

The first game didn’t start so well: Chris Fetter’s second pitch of the game went well over Kenny Fellow’s head in left, out of the park, placing Siena up 1-0. He then gave up a walk and a single with no outs, but a strike out and 4-6-3 double play ended the rally. Despite this early scare, Fetter ended the game with 7 innings pitched, 11 strike outs, and one walk. He gave up 6 hits, two of them were solo home runs. Those two home runs would be all the runs Fetter would give up. Brandon Sinnery would close out the last two innings, giving up 1 run on two hits, one walk, and two strike outs. Great day for Michigan pitching.

Offense didn’t disappoint either. Michigan belted three home runs on the day from Nick Urban, Justin Lorenz, and Alan Oaks. The homeruns for Urban and Lorenz were their first career home runs for Michigan. It was good to see Lorenz make some noise; he was only hitting .125 coming into the weekend, with both previous hits coming in one game. Oaks made the most of his first pinch hitting appearance of the season after returning from illness, knocking a 2-run homer.

I won’t go too much into the hitting, as every hitter in this game had at least one hit. Five starters had more than one hit. One defensive note, Nick Urban had one hell of a diving catch in right field to start the second inning. He made a catch at full extension catch on a low fly ball. I love the defense, so props to Urban. It would have made Web Gems.

Notable Stars

  • Chris Fetter – 7 IP, 2 ER, 11K, BB
  • Nick Urban – 2/4 3 RBI, 2 Rs, HR, web gem
  • Tim Kalczynski – 2/4 2 Rs

Notable Goats

  • um…? Ryan LaMarre was the only player without a run or RBI? Yeah, I got nothing.

Michigan 13, Siena 3
Box Score
W – Eric Katzman (2-1) L – Hartman (0-3)

As Other Chris pointed out in her tweet, no radio for this game, just stats. Looking at the play-by-play, Katzman looked pretty shaky in this game, but managed to avoid much more damage. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing at this point. As I mentioned in a previous comment, I didn’t really expect Katzman to repeat his week 1 performance very often. He’s still working on becoming a guy who can go more than 5 innings, it just hasn’t happened yet.

This game was no different as Siena was on base early and often. The Saints left 8 on base during Katzman’s 5 2/3 innings of work. That’s not something we want to see. Neither is a run scoring wild pitch from Katzman. You really have to hope Eric holds up over the season. This is by far the most pitching he’s done in a season since at least high school.

The bullpen did pretty well. Burgoon got Katzman out of the 6th inning, stranding one of Katzman’s baserunners. He worked a pretty quick 7th inning, but did give up a solo home run. Matt Gerbe finished the game with 2 shutout innings.

Offense is what won this game for us. Ryan LaMarre is a beast. Ryan went 3 for 4 in this game with 2 home runs, 4 RBIs, and 3 runs. He even stole a base. By himself, Ryan LaMarre outscored the entire Siena team; that’s a great feeling. Mike Dufek also poured on the offense, going 2 for 4 with a home run, a double, 2 runs, and 2 RBIs.

A big positive from this game was production from the bottom of the order. Coley Crank made the best of his spot start at catcher, going 3 for 3 with 2 RBIs. John Lorenz registered his first single of the year (actually two of them) in a 2 for 4 performance with a run scored. Toth, still in the 9-hole, finished 1 for 4 with a run and an RBI.

Notable Stars

  • Ryan LaMarre – 3/4 4 RBIs, 3 Rs, BB, SB,
  • Mike Dufek – 2/4 2 RBIs, 2 Rs, BB
  • Kevin Cislo – 2/5 RBI, 2 Rs
  • Eric Katzman – 5 2/3 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB

Notable Goats

  • Justin Lorenz – Error leading to a run
  • Eric Katzman – baserunners a plenty and a wild pitch for a run

Michigan 19, Siena 6
Box Score
W – Travis Smith (2-1) L – Sohl (0-2)

The offense that caught fire in the middle innings of the first game of the double header continued on in game 2. Michigan logged 19 runs on 20 hits, including 4 doubles and 3 home runs. Thirteen different Wolverines logged a hit in the game. The only player in the game not to was Tim Kalczynski, who only batted once. He along with Fellows were the only players in the game not to score a run. It was an all around whooping.

Ryan LaMarre lead the team with 4 RBIs coming off of a fielder’s choice and a three run homer. Cislo, Crank, and Oaks each had three runs scored a piece. Crank lead the team with three hits, giving him 6 total in the double header. Along with the previously mentioned LaMarre, home run, both Mike Dufek and Garrett Stephens also collected home runs.

We knocked the Siena bull pen around until it exploded. Eight different pitchers were thrown against us, two of which didn’t even record an out. Only one pitcher managed to not give up a run.

Michigan’s pitching, on the other hand, was quite solid. Travis Smith put in 6 strong innings of work, giving up only 2 earned runs (and 1 unearned). He also struck out 8 while only giving up 4 hits and 2 walks. I’ll take that kind of start every week. It will be interesting to see if he moves up to the game 2 starter or if Coach Maloney will leave the right/left/right handed rotation.

Matt Miller and Jeff DeCarlo threw the last 3 innings. Miller looked good but had an unearned run scored upon him. DeCarlo continued to look shaky, but at least he didn’t hit anybody this time out. He did give up 2 earned runs (one unearned).

Speaking of all of these unearned runs, what was up with the defense? I’m not just talking about this game, but the last few. We’ve given up 10 unearned runs in the last two weekends (7 games). That’s not very good. Our team percentage of .963 isn’t too bad, but our opponents are definitely making us pay for our mistakes. I’ll probably take a look at our opponents’ fielding percentage and earned vs unearned runs scored in my next Stat Watch.

Notable Stars

  • You Pick’em, you’re probably right.

Notable Goats

  • McLouth & Lorenz errors lead to unearned runs

POTW Honors

Ryan LaMarre picked up Big10 Player of the Week (shared with Illinois’s Aaron Johnson) honors for his weekend performance. His weekend totals:

H/AB OB% SLG% RBI R HR BB K
6/12 .571 1.250 8 4 3 2 2

And he had an outfield assist. Ryan LaMarre is a beast.

BigTen Hardball All Weekend Team

Dufek, LaMarre, Crank, Fetter all make the list. The team this week was a bit lengthy. Too many players are playing too well right now. Illinois makes a lot of noise on the list as they took 2 of 3 from #1 LSU in Baton Rouge.

Poll Watching

Poll Current LW
RPI 106 TBA
NCBWA 25 28
Collegiate Baseball 28 28
BaseballAmerica NR NR
Ping!Baseball NR NR
Rivals NR NR
USA Today/ESPN 28* 32*

*in also receiving votes

Illinois also jumped us in the NCBWA and Collegiate Baseball polls after taking 2 of 3 from previous #1 LSU. RPI is now available through Boyd’s World. We’re pretty low and for good reason, we haven’t played many good teams yet. Ohio State and Illinois both sit in the top 20, at #15 and #16 respectively. They both have had impressive games against good opponents this season. The best team we’ve played so far is Jacksonville at #64, who we split a double header with. Arizona, this weekend’s opponent is currently #61.

Programming Schedule

Next post will probably be the Arizona preview. I hope to get it out by tomorrow night, but I’ve got 4 games to umpire tomorrow. We’ll see if I can get it in before Friday morning.

Posted under Baseball

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Preview: Iowa III

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Iowa Hawkeyes tomorrow at 2:30 PM in Indianapolis. The first-round Big Ten Tourney game is crucial if Michigan wants to return to The Big Dance, and Wolverine fans can catch it on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Iowa: National Ranks
Category Michigan Iowa Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Iowa eFG% D 132 173 M
Mich eFG% D v. Iowa eFG% 194 33 II
Mich TO% v. Iowa Def TO% 17 255 MMM
Mich Def TO% v. Iowa TO% 136 199 M
Mich OReb% v. Iowa DReb% 281 125 II
Mich DReb% v. Iowa OReb% 192 301 MM
Mich FTR v. Iowa Opp FTR 317 86 III
Mich Opp FTR v. Iowa FTR 29 236 MMM
Mich AdjO v. Iowa AdjD 44 96 M
Mich AdjD v. Iowa AdjO 77 72

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

In perhaps the most poorly-officiated game of the year (and that’s saying a TON. Actually, the Minnesota game might have been slightly worse, but the bad calls were distributed evenly between the two teams and didn’t greatly affect the game’s outcome), Michigan had a regulation victory cruelly ripped from their hands by shockingly incompetent officiating, and the Wolverines sealed their own fate in overtime. Manny Harris was benched for the entire extra session, Michigan couldn’t hit a shot (or take any other than contested 3s) and the Wolverines lost by double-digits. Iowa managed to take the game without their bigman, Cyrus Tate.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has picked up huge wins over Purdue (at home) and Minnesota (on the road), while dropping an away game to Wisconsin in between. Michigan, who looked to be dead in the water after losing to Iowa (again, under questionable circumstances), has played itself back into tourney contention.

Iowa dropped games to Michigan State, Northwestern, and Ohio State before knocking off Penn State in Carver-Hawkeye, and putting a severe dent in the Nittany Lions’ chances of dancing. Cyrus Tate has returned to action, though he certainly isn’t at 100% effectiveness. In what could be the last game of his college career, I presume Tate will give it all he has.

And…?

Though it certainly didn’t feel like it after the big win against Minnesota, Michigan absolutely must come away from this game victorious if they want the tourney dream to remain alive. Cyrus Tate has been back on the court for the Hawkeyes, which should improve them a bunch. However, Iowa is playing for little more than a chance to spoil somebody’s season, whereas Michigan’s motivation is making their first NCAA tournament in 10 years. Beating Illinois in the next game certainly wouldn’t hurt, but a win over Iowa is absolutely crucial.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit favorite at the neutral site.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Recruiting Update 3-11-09

I was going to try and hold off a bit longer between recruiting posts, but with the latter half of this week likely stuffed full of baseball and (hopefully) basketball, this will run now. I’ve been forgetting to link it of late, so be sure to visit the 2010 Recruiting Board for all the updates.

Removal:
SC DB DeAndre Hopkins, who committed to Clemson, as predicted.

Standard Information:
OK QB DeMarco Cobbs has been offered by basically every school as a wideout, but Michigan is giving the likely 5-star a look at QB. He’s been added to the board, but not yet with an offer.

FL LB Jeff Luc is sporting a Michigan offer, and he can’t decide which National All-Star game in which he’d most like to participate. Florida is his favorite, but he plans to wait until at least fall before he makes a decision. Frequent commenter “i know nothing” also brings his video to my attention, which I present for your review:


The dude looks like a heck of a player, and a very violent presence at linebacker. His offer sheet and invitations to both HS All-Star games would speak to this, and Michigan would certainly love to have him.

Michigan has offered FL CB Spencer Boyd. The 5-10, 160-lber also plays running back in high school. Boyd plans to wait until after his senior season to make a final decision. He’s been added to the board. Speaking of Boyd, Jim Stefani gave his information on some of Michigan’s new offerees:

Spencer Boyd DB/RB/WR 5′10 165 4.31 Cape Coral Florida

One of the top junior DBs and RBs in Florida. I have him ranked as among the top 58 DBs in the nation. As a junior, despite being injured part of the year and playing in just 8 games, he had 104 carries for 620 yards, 30 tackles and a 104-yard INT return for a score. Projects as a college CB. Has very quick feet and exceptional change-of-direction. 225 bench, 385 squat as a sophomore. Honorable Mention All-U.S. Army Combine at DB. Impressive on the 2008 combine circuit (4.31 forty, 4.25 shuttle). Named a team captain as a junior. “He’s kind of like our Marshall Faulk – he does a little bit of everything,” [Head Coach] Goebbel said. “He has the speed to take the ball up the sideline and the power to run between the tackles. We can put him out at receiver and he can catch the ball and make things happen that way. “He’s really one of the best overall players around this area.”

Caleb Lavey LB 6′3 225 4.56 Celina Texas

I have him rated as among the top 25 LBs in the nation. As a junior LB he recorded almost 200 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 FFs and 2 FRs. Nice-sized linebacker who has a great frame and runs well. Good nose for the ball and instincts. 275 bench, 27 vertical. 3.9 GPA. His father attended Michigan and was an equipment manager for the football team. 6-3, 225. One of the top junior prospects at the 1A-3A Texas 7 on 7 Tournament…………..2007 1A-3A State Passing Tournament Top 33 Recruits.

D.J. Williamson WR/DB 6′1 180 4.45 Warren Harding Ohio

I have him ranked as among the top 75 WRs in the nation. Sophomore track times: 10.82 100 meters and he qualified for the state meet, 21.7 200 meters. Great speed and nice size for a receiver, Excels as a return man. 270 bench, 315 squat, 32 vertical

Jim has a ton more information on all three of these guys on his site (I’ve trimmed it down significantly), so go check it out if you’re interested. I’ve also added D.J. Williamson to the board. Per the Junior Day updates listed below, he plans to visit Ann Arbor for the Junior Day this weekend. Webb’s update gave the not-so-subtle implication that a commitment is highly likely while Williamson is in town, so be on the lookout. The internet scuttlebutt is that Williamson grew up a huge Michigan fan, and agrees with the “likely commitment” sentiment.

Now, a slight transition into Junior Day talk:
As was the case last year, Michigan’s first Junior Day of the year will coincide with the Night of Champions, a team-wide competition serving as the official end of winter conditioning, and therefore the beginning of spring practice. Of course, the junior day isn’t the first time Michigan has invited 2010 prospects to campus this year, and several players, such as Jerald Robinson (who offered his commitment), William Gholston, and Devin Gardner have already taken in basketball games in Crisler Arena.

So which players are planning to attend this weekend? As Josh Helmholdt reveals in the Free Press:

Among the in-state prospects who’ve stated they plan to attend are Detroit Southeastern defensive end William Gholston, Detroit Cass Tech cornerback Dior Mathis, Inkster quarterback Devin Gardner, Warren Fitzgerald linebacker Austin Gray, Charlevoix offensive lineman Bill Ivan and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s quarterback Robert Bolden.

Spartanburg, S.C., quarterback Cornelius Jones (6-2, 197 pounds) is one of those who is trying to work out a trip to Ann Arbor for the event. He was offered by U-M in January. Flower Mound (Tex.) Marcus running back Stephen Hopkins (6-0, 220) has also said he wants to visit Michigan that weekend.

(Ivan added to the recruiting board). There are also a few more recent updates:

  • Sam Webb said last Friday on WTKA that he also expects MI CB Mylan Hicks and MI DE CJ Olaniyan to make it in, but that Cornelius Jones probably won’t have a chance to visit until the spring game.
  • Monday, Sam’s WTKA recruiting update included information that DJ Williamson will attend (see above), and SC OL AJ Cann is also going to try to make it up for Junior Day, along with “a few guys from out in Western PA.” I assume that refers to CBs Cullen Christian and Brandon Ifill.
  • This Rivals header states that instate RB Austin White will be in attendance as well.

***UPDATE*** Gardner also plans to announce a commitment decision Monday, after (presumably) coming on the Ann Arbor visit. This can certainly be seen as a positive sign, though it’s not guaranteed that Devin Gardner will commit to Michigan.

Posted under Basketball, Coaching, Football, Recruiting

(Slight) Site Reorganization

If you’re a particularly astute observer, you may have noticed the “Quick Links” box on the left sidebar has seen a few layoffs of late. That’s partially because of a bit of infrastructure redesign we’ve been working on for a little while. Everything that you’re used to accessing on Varsity Blue should still be around (if something’s not, let us know in the comments), but we’ve also added a couple more items.

The Michigan Class of 2009, Current Michigan Depth Chart, and Michigan Eligibility Chart are still around, but they’re now lumped together under one item called “Personnel HQ.” Soon, I’ll also be putting the finishing touches on the Eligibility Chart by Class, and that will fall under that category as well. The only thing that’s tricky to find is the 2009 Recruiting Board, which can be found on the Class of 2009 page, which is newly spruced up.

New to the site is the “About Varsity Blue” section, which gives a brief synopsis of how Varsity Blue came to be, and links to bio pages for each member of the VB staff. If you’d become accustomed to seeing an invite to follow Paul on Twitter in that left sidebar, fear not, as you can now find that information on his bio page. The same information for the other two of us can also be seen on our respective pages (Tim and FormerlyAnonymous).

The 2010 Recruiting Board is still linked on the left sidebar, and probably will be until around this time next year, after most members of the class sign with Michigan. There are also a few slight adjustments to the site’s design coming along a little further down the road, so be on the lookout for those. For now, feel free to check out some of the new pages and get a feel for the new structure.

If anything is broken, missing, in need of update, etc., or if you have a suggestion for something that you’d like to see, let us know in the comments of this post or the relevant page. I apologize for the abundance of links in this post, but I’m pretty excited to have people checking out all the new and/or updated content.

Posted under Blog News