You wonderful hosts can be found at Black Heart, Gold Pants.

Posted under Analysis

In yesterday’s Unverified Voracity, Brian mentioned that the mass media will com up with a message that they want to write about, and then write their article about that whether or not the circumstances are true. For example, he said that the media would assume that fans would criticize Rodriguez’s playcalling, and wrote their articles regardless of whether that was true or not.

Another annoying instance of this I’ve run across is the assumption that Michigan fans think the sky is falling down. With an upset against a far inferior team, among the worst that Michigan will play this year, fans clearly think that Michigan will struggle to win a single game this year…

…except that’s not at all what Michigan fans are saying. Those who have a clue (which is, thankfully and surprisingly, a majority) realize that Utah might be the best non-Ohio State team (and certainly among them) that the Wolverines will face in 2008, and have set expectations accordingly. Sure, people are disappointed in the play of the offense, but nearly everyone I’ve talked to has been encouraged by the play of the defense in the second half, and thinks that the offense can only improve with Steven Threet the man in charge. The most negative article I’ve seen was Brian’s game column.

So, mass media, don’t make assumptions about fan perception and write your articles from your assumptions: you might want to take into account, you know, the truth.

Posted under Analysis

Having taken advantage of one of the more “liberal” offerings of LS&A, political science major with a minor in philosophy to be specific, I constantly try to validate the classes I took by using what I learned in “real life.” So… a college football blog isn’t quite “real life,” but it’s close, so I’m going to break down portions of the Utah game using a wide swath of Western culture (no offense to Eastern culture, but I didn’t get much of it).

• Nick Sheridan is Hector of Troy: Their histories are a stretch to match, although one was a son of king, the other a son of coach. They were both intelligent, gritty and determined, and somewhat respected. Hector died fighting a battle he had no chance of winning, a one on one duel against Achilles. Sheridan, apparently, had no chance of being an effective quarterback. The Utes did not proceed to drag Nick Sheridan back to their encampment behind their chariot, but they embarrassed him all the same.
• The Offensivee Line is the (Spartans at Thermopylae)^-1: Oh, inverted, uh metaphor. I think the weird part was that the offensive line was as effective standing still trying to draw an offsides call as they were trying to block. While the Spartans valiantly stood at the pass and held off the oncoming horde to give the Greeks enough time to prepare a their Navy for a decisive victory, the Michigan offensive line could not hold off the Utes for [insert QB] to get to the mesh point with [insert RB]². (Note: just because Michigan State fans have latched on to the movie 300 does not mean Michigan fans have to ignore the city-state)
• The Second Half Defense is the French Army under Napoleon pre-1812: The Napoleonic army was very modern for it’s time and had very well trained soldiers that used rather advanced tactics. He was rarely defeated in battle and wreaked havoc on his enemies. Scott Shafer is taller and every bit the tactician. The defense in the second half played lights out and looked to really confuse the Utah offense. Many times faking retreat and flanking hard.
• The First Half Defense is All Other French Armies: The Utes marched right through Michigan’s Arc de Triomphe at will.
• Stephen Threet is Lennie from Of Mice and Men: I’m not calling Threet mildly mentally disabled. From everything I have heard he is an exceptionally intelligent, nice guy, but bear with me here. Lennie was fairly lovable. George always talked about leaving him on his own, but never could bear to abandon the adorable lurch. Something about Lennie kept George around. Lennie was also fairly effective at his various jobs, but didn’t have the higher level subtleties down. Seems fairly accurate right? Now, there’s an obvious difference in scale, but Lennie accidentally choked a women to death and his best friend ended up killing him, while Threet accidentally overthrew some passes and ended up losing the game (Note: he is not solely responsible for losing the game, but he did not win, so therefore…)

So there you have it. Hopefully this isn’t an example of Michigan arrogance…

If enough people like this, it could become a weekly thing.

Posted under Analysis

QB Comparison:

Though Threet’s stats are worse than Sheridan’s, most people who watched the game would agree that Threet looked to be the better of the two QBs in this game (this is like saying “the less painful way to get hit in the nuts with a baseball bat”). There are several factors that account for this.

• After the first scoring drive, Sheridan went from competent (started the gane 11/13) to sucky (went 0/6 the rest of the way).
• Nick Sheridan threw an ugly interception to close out the half that ultimately ended up deciding the game. He also had an interception wiped out due to a pass interference call.
• Sheridan tried to rip a ball out of McGuffie’s hands after he had already given it away, resulting in a lost fumble.
• Threet’s attempts all came after the ground game was abandoned due to both ineffectiveness and a need to slow down the clock.
• Threet’s touchdown pass was prettier.
• The offense was more effective with Threet in the game.
• Threet seemed to be more poised than Sheridan (oh god, Clausen comparisons ahoy).
• The offense just seemed to be clicking a little more (which is to say: at all) under Threet’s guidance.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steven Threet as the starting QB next week, and I think deservedly so. however, Miami’s defense is not as good as Utah’s, so unless we see major improvement against the RedHawks, the offense could remain ugly all year. There were likely some first game jitters playing a role in the poor QB play as well, so don’t expect anything this bad again, but don’t expect to see Threet or Sheridan threaten for All-conference honors, either.

Rushing Comparison:

Ugly. I think that although the running backs had a pretty bad day, much of the blame falls on the offensive line. The backfield was collapsed on most plays, meaning that the runners had to struggle just to get back to the line of scrimmage most of the time. Brandon Minor had one good looking run, but also a crippling fumble.

Once the offensive line gets a little more used to game shape, and starts playing against less talented D-lines, hopefully they can gel a bit and become more successful. Failing that, we can pray for a midseason return from Corey Zirbel that suddenly makes the line awesome.

Michigan’s 36 yards finished 99th out of the 105 D-1A teams that have played so far this season, tied with Utah.

Defense by Half:
Utah’s total offense in the first half: 303 yards.
Utah’s total offense in the second half: 38 yards.

As Lloyd said (erroneously) after the 2005 loss to Notre Dame: “We may have lost a game, but found a defense.”

After the halftime break, the players realized that the 2008 season started at 3:30 Saturday, and even if they were going to show up a couple hours late, they would just make up for it with an extra-special effor
t in the second half.

I really do believe that Utah has one of the best offenses Michigan will face this year, and certainly among the most balanced. In the second half, they managed to shut that offense down. If anything, I’m disappointed that the game was lost, but I think the defensive improvement over the course of the game is a source of optimism going forward.

Helping the Wolverines
Of course, Utah’s mistakes were a big part of why Michigan managed to keep this game as close as it was. Utah amassed an amazing 137 yards worth of penalties in the game. This makes them the second-in-command for Mythical Penatly-Committing National Champion, behind Texas Tech.

Another note about Utah helping Michigan (though this is also something the defense and special teams earned):
Michigan’s average starting field position: their own 30.9 yard line.
Average starting field position on scoring drives: Utah’s 35 yard line.
The only scoring drive that didn’t begin in Utah territory was the field goal, and even that series began on the 50.

The Incredible Frozen Offensive Line
So, uh what was with the plays where the offensive line didn’t move?

There are two theories:

• It was just a trick play.
• Michigan’s center was trying to catch the Utes offsides.

I believe, at least partially, in theory number 2, since the second time Michigan ran this play, the referees seemed to miss an egregious offsides penalty by Utah’s entire defensive line. It could also be a trick play, but it seems a little counter intuitive to:

1. Trick the defensive line into not rushing.
2. Roll out, away from a presumably non-rushing defensive line.
3. Throw a fade route, designed to hope that the DB doesn’t notice the play has started, when he isn’t really watching the O-line for the beginning of the play anyway.

If anyone else has further insights about this, by al means, speak up.

For this week’s Inside the Play, I’ll be breaking down the Nick Sheridan touchdown pass to Michael Shaw.

Posted under Analysis

At halftime, I was trying to think of what I would post about the game. I made a note to find someone getting hit with a football in the nuts on youtube. Unfortunately that was somewhat hard to find (I was a little surprised). I settled on this:

I’m not sure what happened at halftime, (whatever it was, I’m sure Nick Sheridan didn’t feel well after…), but the defense played like it should have all game. In the second half, Utah only had drive over 10 yards (the first of the half where they got a first down on their first play and then got stymied). That’s dominant, but I’m not sure how good Utah is, and how much those low yardage totals are because of the dumb Utah penalties.

The first half was absolutely horrible. It looked like we had a walk-on sophomore starting, no offensive line talent and running backs who were running scared. Seriously, is Nick Sheridan the Jason Gingell of quarter backing? I have to think Gingell was really good in practice. Luckily it only to the staff a half and not 3-4 games to pull Sheridan. The defense seemed to worry more about keeping Johnson’s jersey clean than covering anything between the hashes.

The worst call of the game, and I called it before it happened, was trying to get some points before halftime. Sure it’s ballsy. Nobody could have predicted the defense coming alive like it did, but I could sure as hell predict Sheridan throwing an interception. That was the difference in the game.

Tim has a more thorough recap coming up tomorrow or Monday.

Posted under Analysis

Michigan lost a home game to a MWC team, so you can expect that I’m disappointed/angry/horrified, etc.

However, I have to say I’m actually encouraged by today’s game.

• After the defensive players realized that the season had started, and they should probably, you know, play football, that unit completely dominated.
• The offense was pretty bad. The line was decent for the players that are left one it, but they’ll need to improve over the course of the season if Michigan is going to be successful. The QB was pretty bad, but some of it was first-game jitteriness, and some was being rattled by the QB pressure. There should be an improvement by the QBs next week against a much worse defense.
• The special teams were very good. Nice to see Lopata nail a career-long FG, and see multiple kicks (an extra point and a punt) blocked. What’s scary is that I only see this unit getting better during the year.

Of course, it’s always a disappointment to lose, but I saw it coming, so it doesn’t sting as much as maybe it should. Lowered expectations lead to a happier postgame feeling. If the defense can play all year like it did in the second half, I expect this team to be top-25 quality (even if the record won’t reflect that until much later in the year). If the offense can come around, this could be a decent year in Ann Arbor.

Posted under Analysis

As I noted in our summer preview of Utah, the Utes are probably going to be among the better teams that Michigan plays this year. Speaking with Daily Utah Chronicle writer Tony Pizza didn’t dissuade me from that position.

Utah has experience on both sides of the ball, and quarterback Brian Johnson is finally healthy after suffering a multitude of injuries over the past two years. The offense should hum along, and the defense should be competent. The run defense appears to be a bit of a weakness for Utah, with a light group of starters on the line. That is probably how Michigan will primarily move the ball, especially with the quarterback situation still not settled.

Marquis Wilson, as predicted in the summer, is suspended for this game (and in fact, the entire year). One other thing that may give Michigan fans a bit of hope is the poor job Utah did defending the option against Navy last year. I predicted that they wouldn’t be able to defend our option all that well before even seeing the stats. Navy ran for 316 yards on Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl, and managed to pass for 122 yards, 30 more than their season average.

The key for Michigan is to get a fast start. If they can get the first score, and a bit of momentum going, they should be able to take control of the game. Even a score on special teams on the opening kick could help make Utah think “Jesus these guys are good!” (Note: I usually think scoring on the opening kick is a disadvantage, because it makes the scoring team complacent. However, I think this Michigan team has something to prove in game one, and Utah may be fearing an obvious talent disparity). Utah has developed something of a reputation for road game chokes against BCS teams early in the season under Whittingham, and any sign that they are in for another round of the same may make the team fold.

Predictions:
Michigan’s offense won’t light up the scoreboard, but they will be surprisingly competent.
Michigan’s defense won’t live up to the 1997/2006-ish expectations that are being thrust upon it.
Michigan walks away the victor (barely) in a fairly low-scoring battle, winning 23-20.

What say you, fair fans of Varsity Blue?

Posted under Analysis

Paul posted a list of guidelines for those fortunate enough to sit in the student section for Michigan games, and Maize N Blue Nation has responded. What should those fans relegated to the rest of the stadium do? Check it out here.

I’d like to contribute the following addenda (while strongly endorsing the “be kind to opposing fans” and “support the team with noise” points):

• Wear maize. I don’t care if you have a vintage Tom Brady Orange Bowl jersey. Wear it at the tailgate or in front of the TV. A maize shirt costs you a maximum of 16 dollars (and even that’s only if you get the official T-shirt). Wear it.
• If a play that you predicted is called (successful or otherwise), don’t gloat or say “I told you so.” It pretty much just makes you “that guy.”
• If you know the answer to a question the people around you are searching for, tell them. That said, don’t act like an asshole know-it-all.
• Support the team, the cheerleaders, the band, and everything that makes Michigan’s gameday unique and amazing.

Enjoy yourselves. Only 3 more days until the Best Time of Year.

Posted under Analysis

As a four year veteran of the student section, I’ve seen a lot of awesome things in the student section as well as some things I wish I could forget. In order to make the student section as good as possible I’m going to share some tips to emphasize the good and hopefully prevent the bad.

1. Dress Appropriately: First of all, for students, there are no special Maize Out games. Every game is a Maize Out, so wear your football t-shirt or other appropriate yellow garment (the disgusting mustard color from discount sporting goods stores is discouraged, but better than nothing). Also, the first few games of the year will test your endurance in intense heat and sun. I suggest either copious amounts of sun block or a stylish maize hat. If you are a hot girl, maize bathing suits are acceptable. Later in the year, especially with 3:30 starts, the game will begin warm and then get very chilly by the end (think ’04 MSU). Wear layers, always making sure the outer layer is maize.
2. Be in Game Shape: I don’t mean this athletically, but fans do have certain responsibilities and you can’t cheer and scream if you’re passed out standing up. Some people enjoy pre-gaming or tailgating (I’ve been known to), but it’s important to keep it within reason in order to enjoy the game. Remember: by the second half you’re past drunk and entering hang over.
3. Be Prepared: Especially with the early season games, I’ll grab a dollar bill and a hand full of change before I head to the stadium. Usually on Hoover, I’ll stop and buy a water, but I won’t open it. You will always be able to get un-opened water bottles into the stadium. Then, safely in the stands, I replenish my fluids, insert the coins into the water bottle and have a very effective noise maker.
4. You’re with Students: The student section is not part of the family game day atmosphere. It is a teeming mass of 17-24 year olds hopped up on booze, hormones and fanaticism. Four letter words ought not be discouraged unless used in the least creative cheer ever (within the confines of the student section). That being said, mean-spirited slurs directed at opposing players or other fans are not cool.
5. The Others: I’ve been to a few away games, but not in the stands at the schools who hate Michigan the most. It’s fun and usually those fans that travel are really great college football fan who most of us can relate to. That being said, if they are in the student section, jokes made about their intelligence, economic standing, sexual preference, sexual deviancy, facial hair, etc. drawn from widely accepted facts about their university are acceptable within reason. Getting in their faces after Michigan scores or physical attacks are bush league and not acceptable. You can support your team without giving its fans a bad reputation. This also means that outside the student section (and outside the stadium), you should a least be tolerant of other schools’ fans.
6. Comfortable Shoes: The only acceptable times to sit down are before the band takes the field for pre-game, half time (unless the band does something exceptionally awesome) and after the game if you like being trampled. Also, if you hear The Victors, you should be standing, clapping, fist pumping, and singing: no exceptions.
7. Don’t Be That Guy: If you are sitting below row 80 and hear a cow bell and say anything related to the Christopher Walken sketch on SNL lampooning “Don’t Fear the Reaper” by Blue Oyster Cult, I hate you. Freshman year it’s acceptable and funny for the first few games. Beyond that, seriously, that sketch was on like 8 years ago. Sure there isn’t a lot of cowbell-centric humor out there, but don’t just retread. Same thing goes for waving your Key-card on 3rd down. Not only is it not funny, it takes all that is bad with “key play” and leaves all the good (the pleasant jingling).
8. Don’t Be That Brah: If you come in past kick-off, don’t expect to sit exactly where your tickets tell you your seats are. Actually, never expect that. Being off by one row or having to sit back towards the endzone slightly more doesn’t matter. You’ll enjoy the game just the same as well as not coming off as dick.
9. Be Loud: Before every play on defense there should be such a raucous cacophony coming from the student section the offense just gives up and the QB punts on first down. Maybe this will never happen, but it is still the goal. Participation in all cheers is somewhere between mandatory and strongly encouraged. Take your breaks on a second down when Michigan has the ball. If you insist on participating in the “key play” nonsense, at least make a reasonable amount of other noise as well.
10. Stay Positive: It makes the game much less fun when you’re bitching about every play on offense that isn’t a first down and every play on defense that isn’t a turnover. Games ebb and flow, stay centered maaaaan… If you really can’t help being negative, start making $1 bets with the person next to you (e.g. “$1 says we’re running a zone stretch left”). Either way you’ll lose.

If you have any suggestions for surviving and thriving in the student section, please leave them in the comments.

Posted under Analysis

Offense
Defense
Special Teams
Recruiting Prospectus

Now that we’ve seen what I think of each individual unit, and each team as a whole, it’s time to make some predictions about how I think it will all come together.

Early in the year, the offense will have to rely on the defense to help them out a lot. Especially with Terrance Robinson missing at least a couple weeks at a key position in the Michigan offense (both in terms of use and depth), Terrance Taylor will have to lead the defensive line to dominance, and Morgan Trent and Donovan Warren will have to play like the big Ten’s top corner duo.

Michigan is one of the hardest teams in the country to make predictions for, because nobody truly knows what to expect, not even rich Rodriguez’s coaching staff. I do think that a lot of the pessimism in press conferences is a bit of misdirection, but anyone expecting the Wolverines to run the table might need to go for a reality check.

Predictions!
Utah
The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah’s will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it’s strength against strength as Michigan’s potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah’s D may score once or twice itself.
Prediction: Tossup

Miami
Miami’s linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn’t come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines’ D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win.
Prediction: Victory

Notre Dame
2008 is Michigan’s turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame’s effort from last year. Jon Tenuta’s blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn’t be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful ’05 and ’06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents… note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense?
Prediction: Tossup

Wisconsin
The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW’s pass defense doesn’t improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan’s D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn’t prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down.
Prediction: Loss

Illinois
I’m not as high on the Illini as many people are after their breakout 2007 season. They lost their two best players, and although Juice Williams improved dramatically, he still completed only 57.3% of his passes, and with the threat of Rashard Mendenhall gone, it will be tougher for him to both run and pass. Arrelius Benn, however, will be a big help catching passes and making things happen. On defense, the Illini are doing a bit of rebuilding yet again, with J Leman gone. However, the talent to replace him is there.
Prediction: Tossup

Toledo
The Rockets had a fairly prolific offense last year, and look to continue that trend with a trio of quarterbacks who have game experience. The rushing attack will drop off quite a bit, however. On defense, the Rockets might not have the talent to stop the Michigan offense, especially if they can get a bit of momentum going in the middle of the year.
Prediction: Victory

Penn State
Though Michigan has owned Penn State in recent years, don’t expect that trend to continue. Penn State is equally transitional, but the Nitanny Lions retun much of a strong line, and their personnel ran the spread a few years ago with Michael Robinson at the helm. Whil Penn State lacks a true offensive leader like Robinson, they shouldn’t drop off too much. On defense, the Lions are a little weaker than recent years, with a relatively green linebacking corps and a group of tackles decimated by offseason attrition. However, Michigan’s inexperience on offense will likely outweigh Penn State’s on defense.
Prediction: Loss

Michigan State
Like Illinois, I’m not buying into much of the national hype on the Spartans. Returning a starting QB isn’t as positive if he’s more liability than asset. Javon Ringer is the only truly great player on this offense (though his “thunder” counterpart, Jehuu Caulcrick, is gone), and Hoyer’s top two targets now ply their trade in the NFL. On defense, MSU lost their SackMaster, several pieces from an already suspect secondary, and linebacker Kaleb Thornhill. However, there is reason to be excited about another linebacker, the youngster Greg Jones.
Prediction: Tossup

Purdue
The Purdue game might be one of the most important of the year for Michigan. I’m not joking. If they roll into this game at 4-4 (as I’m predicting), a win would put Michigan in good position to get to a bowl game for the 35th straight year. A loss, however, and they have to hope that they get in at 6-6. The Purdue offense has consistently sputtered against decent opponents, and Michigan’s defense this year is expected to be one of the best in the nation, especially as the youth gets worked out over the course of the year. On defense, Purdue looks fairly dire, with several players moving around to try to replace impact guys from last year. Michigan’s offense won’t be prolific, but should be able to take advantage of a weak defensive unit.
Prediction: Victory

Minnesota
Unless Tim Brewster ignites a Zook-ian turnaround in his Gopher squad, they should be at or near the bottom of the Big Ten standings by the time this game rolls around. I would have liked to see a scrimmage between Minnesota’s defense and Notre Dame’s offense last year to see which was more incompetent. The Gophers can’t be much worse this year, but they probably won’t be heaps better, either. Minnesota’s offense was decent last year, but it would still take a big leap to be successful against top-tier defenses, one of which Michigan looks to have.
Prediction: Victory

Northwestern
Northwestern blogger Lake the Pos
ts is trying to generate buzz around this edition of the Wildcats, but I don’t see them making a leap towards the top of the conference. They will be a middle-of-the-pack team (and Northwestern fans should remember that not too long ago, they would have been begging for that). I see Michigan as a middling conference team as well, but a team that looks similar to Northwestern with vastly more talent, except at the QB position.
Prediction: Victory

Ohio State
The most complete team in the country, on their own home field.
Prediction: Pain

All in all, it looks to be a 7-5 regular season for Michigan. Of course, they could come out against Utah looking either much stronger or much weaker than expected, which would throw all these predictions off. However, a rebuilding year in 2008 should be expected, with 2009 being a return to the top of the conference standings, before the Wolverines start making national noise around 2010.

Of course, now that everything is worked out for the 2008 season, what can we look forward to in recruiting for 2009 and 2010?

Posted under Analysis