Shall we take a look at the two Big Ten teams that rotate off Michigan’s schedule in 2008? We shall. Obviously, these previews will be less in-depth than teams that I actually have a vested interest in caring about.

Indiana
Offense
QB Kellen Lewis returns to the team after a spring and summer spent earning his way back onto it. He is a true dual-threat, and was the leader of the IU offense last year. Lewis was second in the conference only to game-manager Todd Boeckman in pass efficiency. Marcus Thigpen trailed Lewis in rushing yards last year, but is expected to make his return to the starting position in IU’s backfield (backup Bryan Payton returns as well, after outgaining Thigpen on a ypc-basis). In the WR corps, Indiana loses brobdingnagian target James Hardy, who declared early for the NFL draft. Andrew Means and Ray Fisher will have to carry the load for a WR corps that was so dependent on one player last year. Along the front, true juniors Rodger Saffold and Pete Saxon return at left tackle and guard, respectively, but the other three positions must be replaced. Redshirt sophomore Alex Perry will step in at center, redshirt sophomore Cody Faulkner will play right guard, and fellow redshirt sophomore Mike Stark will play the final tackle position.

Defense
Jammie Kerlew returns at one end position, with Greg Middleton, the NCAA’s leading sacker in 2007, back at the other spot. Greg Brown returns at one tackle position, and the other will be filled by redshirt sophomore Deonte Mack. Will Patterson and Geno Johnson will return at their outside linebacker positions, but Adam McClurg is gone in the middle, and true junior Matt Mayberry will step in. The Hoosiers are fielding a pair of new starting corners, but they have experience, as 5th-year Chris Phillips will fill one spot, and redshirt junior Bruce Hampton will hold down the other. Redshirt juniors Nick Polk and Austin Thomas return as the starting safeties.

Outlook
After going bowling a year ago, the Hoosiers may be poised to make a return trip to a December game. January isn’t out of the question either, as they have an easy OOC schedule (2 MAC teams, reclassifying Western Kentucky, and 1-AA Murray State), and miss likely-dominant Ohio State and wildcard Michigan. This will be a good building year as well, seeing as how the Hoosiers return nearly everyone in 2009 (unless Middleton or Lewis goes pro or gets kicked off the team). We may be seeing Indiana take a step from a perennial bottom-feeder to a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten squad.

Iowa
Offense
Iowa didn’t have mich in the way of offense last year, and losing RB Albert Young, who will be replaced by a motley crew of white walkons named “Paki,” freshmen, and Teletubbies, certainly can’t help. What will help, however, is a more experienced Jake Christensen (often the lone bright spot for the UI offense last year), and the return of some white WR goodness in the form of Andy Brodell. Tight end Tony Moeaki will play an important role in the Iowa passing game as well. If injuries and rampant lawlessness don’t help a team’s short-term outlook, they do help develop young depth, which was the case for the Iowa WR corps last year, with Derrell Johson-Koulian, Trey Stross, and James Cleveland getting the majority of the passes. Center will be manned by either junior Rafael Eubanks or senior Rob Bruggeman, either of whom is a good option. The rest of the line could be manned by returning starters, like sophomore left tackle Bryan Bulaga (sliding out from guard), junior left guard Dan Doering, senior right guard Seth Olsen, and junior right tackle Kyle Calloway. Doering is being pushed by sophomore Julian Vandervelde for the starting nod.

Defense
Defensive tackle is the strong point of the Iowa defense, with Matt Kroul and Mitch “Unusual Punishment” King returning as multi-year starters for their final campaign. The defensive ends, however, are all new. Sophomores Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard will fill those positions, though thy both have nearly enough size to play on the inside as well (and one or both may do just that next year). AJ Edd, Dacody Coleman, and Jeff Tarpinian are the starting LBs. Replacing the Mikes Humpal and Klinkenborg (the team’s leading tacklers) will be a tough test on the linebacking corps. White-guy CB (how to make an Iowa preview: repeatedly point out the white guys at positions that white guys shouldn’t be playing) Adam “Sucky” Shada is gone, and the corners will be Bradley Fletcher and the winner of the Jordan Bernstine/Drew Gardner position battle. The safeties will be filled by senior Harold Dalton and sophomore Brett Greenwood.

Outlook
Despite having all sorts of trouble with injuries, not raping people, etc., Iowa managed to turn in a bowl-eligible 6-6 last year. If they can stay helathy this year, and find any sort of running game from Paki and the Fun Bunch, they could make the leap to an actual bowl in 2008.

Posted under Analysis

Ohio State Offense:
QBs
Todd Boeckman is firmly entrenched as the starter, but the depth behind him is dropping off. However, Ohio State fans aren’t exactly mourning the departures of Robbie Schoenhoft and Antonio Henton, as God Himself arrives on campus in the form of one Terrelle Pryor. Pryor may start out as the primary backup over Joe Bauserman, and run a second unit of offense that will take advantage of his ability to throw and run.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Boeckman is a game manager who will neither win nor lose games for his team. If the running game is consistent (and, barring catastrophe, it will be), Boeckman should be in position to not screw things up for the Buckeyes. I am actually surprised to see that he had positive rushing yardage last year, but I guess the OSU O-line was good enough to keep his jersey clean. Pryor will likely come in for the Bucks in a Tebow-like freshman role, but with a more speedy, less physical style.

RBs
True junior Chris Wells is the conference’s best chance for a Heisman trophy going into the season. Behind him is sophomore speedster Brandon Saine, who will get looks in a hybrid RB/slot role in OSU’s “pony” formation, also known as a pro-set, but I guess it’s far less cool without a fun nickname. Senior Maurice Wells is the primary backup to the tailback position. Dan Herron provides a bit of depth before he will likely have to step up next year.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Chris Wells is really, really good. He is a tough back with speed. Saine is a speedy back who provides a change of pace and the opportunity for big receptions out of the backfield. With a couple capable backups, the Buckeyes will have a dropoff if Wells goes down (obviously, he’s a Heisman candidate for a reason) but still have decent production.

Receivers:
The Brians Hartline and Robiskie, a redshirt junior and true senior, respectively, are the starters at wideout. Ray Small is the third receiver, but the true junior has had disciplinary issues this offseason, and it remains to be seen if he can get completely in line, or whether he will serve a suspension of some sort. Junior Jake Ballard and fifth-year senior Rory Nicol are the main tight ends for the Bucks.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Everyone relevant returns (with Small’s status still up in the air), and it gets to a point where it just isn’t fair. The top few wideouts had good yardage for each catch, and the tight ends were a little bleah, which is to be expected in a system that doesn’t throw to the tight end particularly often. This should be an area of strength for the Bucks, and they will look to build depth this year, as they will be losing several players.

Line:
Four linemen return (if we’re keeping score, that is EVERY offensive starter back except for one). At left tackle, true senior and recovering(?) alcoholic Alex Boone returns for his final go-round with the Bucks. The left guard will be true senior Steve Rehring. Redshirt junior Jim Cordle will start at center, and right guard will be manned by 5th-year senior Ben Person. At right tackle, the situation is a little unclear following the departure of Kirk Barton. True freshman Mike Adams was expected to be the starter, but he suffered a shoulder injury in spring practice, and is expected to miss at least the first couple games. Bryant Browning, a redshirt sophomore, is the new projected starter.

Analysis:
With four returning starters, most of them holding multiple years of some starting experience, the only possible weak link along the Buckeye offensive line is at right tackle. The uncertainty following Adams’s injury is a bit of relief for opposing fans, though not much. As long as Adams (should he return) and Browning are not completely incompetent, the Mike DeBord meme of “run left” should be an effective offensive strategy in Columbus. Boeckman’s blind side will be protected adequately, and without major mistakes, the OSU offensive line should approach impenetrable. Backups along the offensive line include top-ranked freshmen JB Shugarts and Mike Brewster.

Offensive Analysis:
Ingredients: Ohio State’s entire offense from last year. A new right tackle.
Procedure: Give one year additional experience. Prune right tackle, replacing with the new one. Unleash on the Big Ten. Profit.

Ohio State Defense:
Defensive Line:
First-rounder Vernon Gholston is gone, but the remainder of the line returns intact. True sophomore Cameron Heyward mans one of the end positions, and redshirt junior Todd Denlinger is one of the tackles. The other tackle position may have a bit of unrest, following redshirt junior Doug Worthington’s DUI/sketchy registration arrest. If he doesn’t return (which he almost certainly will be the Michigan game), 5th-year senior Nader Abdallah, with whom Worthington split starts last year, and redshirt sophomore Dexter Larimore look to get more playing time. The pass-rushing defensive end spot will likely be filled by redshirt junior Lawrence Wilson, with redshirt sophomore Thaddeus Gibson challenging.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Vernon Gholston was the primary pass-rusher last year, and provided a speedy threat that the Buckeyes didn’t really get from elsewhere. With him gone, there may be a little less pressure on the quarterback, but the run defense form the line should be about the same. One thing that surprised me was the lack of overall tackles from the D-line. However, the DL generally allowed the linebackers to get the tackles. With another year of experience, they should improve slightly, but it may be hard to replace a first-rounder like Gholston.

Linebackers:
James Laurinaitis is back for his true senior year, and Marcus Freeman is a redshirt senior who will flank him on the strong side. Larry Grant is gone from the weakside, and will be replaced by redshirt sophomore Ross Homan. Austin Spitler, Tyler Moeller, and Brian Rolle will play backup roles.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Laurinaitis was the Big Ten defensive player of the year and Bronko Nagurski award winner in 2007, and Freeman was a second-team all-conference. This unit will be strong from those two, but there is a big dropoff from the starters to the backups (as should be obvious with players of their caliber). Homan is unproven on the weakside, and he redshirted last year after playing a limited role as a true freshman. The linebackers were strong last year, and, barring injury, should continue to be this year.

Defensive Backs:
Ohio State returns all four starters in the secondary. Corner Malcolm Jenkins is a headliner. The senior has been first-team all-conference the past two years, and will be a high draft pick this spring. Redshirt junior Donald Washington starts at the other corner, having started all of last year and much of 2006. The safeties are led by junior Anderson Russell at the free position. The other spot is Kurt Coleman, who started each game last year as well. The primary backup at corner is Chimdi Chekwa. Jamario O’Neal is the first safety off the bench, though the backup situation at free safety will have to be worked out somewhat with the departure of Eugene Clifford.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Just like the other positions on defense, there is good strength among the starters, but little proven depth. The dropoff from the starters, therefore, should be fairly substantial. However, the starters in this situation are so good, that as long as there isn’t a problem with injuries, the secondary should be very strong.

Defensive Analysis:
Ohio State’s defense, as should be expected with all the starters they return, has a very strong first unit, but a dropoff to the backups. If the team doesn’t have a lot of injury problems, they should have a lot of success on that side of the ball again this year. With the pass rush of Gholston off to the New York Jets, the pass defense should be a little weaker this year, and there may be more blitzing from the linebackers and secondary. However, with the strength of the units, that may not leave as many passing lanes as one may expect.

Special Teams:
Seniors Ryan Pretorius and AJ Trapasso return for their senior seasons at kicker and punter, respectively. Somewhere in Ohio, there is a secret laboratory that pumps out good kickers.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Ohio State should be solid on special teams, like usual. For their final season, expect Pretorius and Trapasso to have another good year.

Overall Analysis:
Ohio State is full of seniors, and is probably one of the most experienced teams in the country. On top of that, factor in that they’ve played in the last two championship games, and there’s a good chance they make it back, and perhaps even win this time. After 2008, they lose nearly everyone, but this should be a fun year for Buckeye fans.

Posted under Analysis

Gopher Nation hosts.

1. ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg recently ranked the top 5 rivalries in the Big Ten and there were some controversial results (Illinois v Ohio State as #3?). Clearly Ohio State vs. Michigan is the #1 rivalry in the Big Ten, but give me your next three. Your school does not have to be included in this list, but regardless of who you choose defend your picks.

Wisconsin/Minnesota, and to a lesser extent Minnesota/Iowa are pretty decent rivalries. Michigan/Michigan State, though one-sided, is a pretty heated rivalry in the “brother v. brother” sense. Everything, of course, pales in comparison to Michigan/OSU.

2. Obviously winning every game is important and beating really good teams sends a stronger message than beating Minnesota. Assume every team is .500 this year and the outcome of your next two games means nothing outside of pride and a year’s worth of bragging rights. Give me the two schools you would want to beat (in order) and why. What makes beating School’s A and B significant?

Uh, Ohio State (obvs). Second would probably be Michigan State in conference, for state bragging rights, etc. If we’re including out of conference, it would have to be Notre Dame, because I hate them.

3. Take the two teams from above that you claim are your biggest rivals and give me a new mascot for them.

Ohio State Convicts. Michigan State Failures.

4. There are some new rules in college football this year. My favorite is the Big Ten experimental rule which states that after every win this year you get to pluck one player off their roster and bring them back to your campus. Looking at your schedule give me two players you would pluck (assuming a win), why you would take them and what would you do with them?

Assuming a win (it would be a tall task, no doubt) against Ohio State, I would take Beanie Wells, because he is probably the best overall player in the conference. He isn’t a perfect match for the new Michigan offense, but I think he’s a good enough player that he can play in nearly any system. The other is Terrelle Pryor. Speaking of fits for the new Michigan sytstem, he is perfect. Had he come to Michigan, most prognosticators would easily have the Wolverines in the preseason top 20-ish. He can run, he can throw (well enough), etc.

5. Brian at MGO was kind enough to post a diary entry which gives us and new coach Rich Rodriguez a list of Michigan traditions that maybe we were not all aware of. This has inspired two final questions… 5A – are there any Michigan traditions that he missed? (here is your chance for some Michigan cheap shots)

None that I can think of, unless we’re gonna bring up a serious one or two, which would be consistent top-25 finishes and dominating the Spartans.

5B – Are there any traditions of your school’s rival that we should all be aware of?

Other than the cheating at Ohio State (hardy har) and the rampant coke use at Michigan State (hardy har again, Jeff Smoker), which everybody is already pretty well acquainted with, nothing that I can think of off the top of my head.

Posted under Analysis

Northwestern Offense:
QBs
CJ Bacher returns for his fifth year to lead the Wildcats offense. He is a returning starter who took nearly every meaningful snap last year. His backup will be redshirt junior Mike Kafka.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Oddly, CJ Bacher is one of the most experienced and tenured quarterbacks in the conference. As a redshirt senior, this shouldn’t come as a surprise, but maybe the fact that he also looks to be one of the best is surprising. If he can stop turning the ball over, he may contend for postseason all-conference lists.

RBs
Tyrell Sutton is a true senior and returning starter. However, he hasn’t managed to stay healthy during his time in Evanston. Backing him up wil be senior Omar Conteh, who performed admirably in relief duty last year, expecially against Michigan. Behind those two, there is little depth, so Northwestern may see Bacher handing it off to someone with virtually no experience if Sutton can’t shake the injury bug.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Sutton is good for the NU system, and Conteh was better than decent replacing him last year, but the lack of depth has to be scary. If Northwestern can get some garbage time carries for backups in games against Syracuse and Duke, fans can rest a little easier. However, Northwestern did manage to, you know, lose to Duke last year, so nothing is set in stone.

Receivers:
Eric Peterman was by far the go-to guy for Bacher last year, and Ross Lane and Rasheed Ward (#2 and tied for #3 in terms of receptions last year) both return as well. All are seniors, and the only major contributor the Wildcats lost last year was Kim Thompson. Michigan fans may remember Ward for the long run after catch he had last year… when everyone on the Wolverines though he was down. Jeff Yarbrough, also a senior, is the key backup. Andrew Brewer, who observant fans may remember as the former starting quarterback for Northwestern, is also at wideout.

Statistics:

Analysis:
The Wildcats start a very experienced group, with three seniors trotting out on most downs. Behind them is another senior in Yarbrough. Expect this group to avoid mistakes. Ward is the speedster of this group (though Michigan fans may contend that this status didn’t prevent him from getting run down from behind by Brandent Englemon, who is a solid player but far from a physical specimen. The group has pretty good size, and they give Bacher some good targets.

Line:
The line is a shaky area for the Wildcats. At left tackle, redshirt sophomore Al Netter is expected to start
. He was the second-stringer last year and found his way into 9 games. Left guard is expected to be manned by redshirt denior Keegan Kennedy who, to this point in his career, had always been a defensive lineman. Center finds the first returning starter, though redshirt senior Joel Belding has previously only found time at guard. Taking over for Belding at right guard will be redshirt sophomore Keegan Grant (completing the all-Keegan guard position), who found his way into 12 games last year. The right tackle will be redshirt junior Kurt Mattes, who started each game last year.

Analysis:
Position changes along the starting offensive line are troubling, especially when one of the players moving was an entrenched starter. However, the Wildcats have decent experience everywhere except right guard Keegan Grant. The line is rarely one of Northwestern’s strengths, yet they regularly manage to put together good offenses.

Offensive Analysis:
The Wildcats look poised to make a run this year, but there’s a good chance their offense will be really, really bad in 2009. They lose seniors at every offensive skill position and 2 offensive line slots. However, that means that these players are starting as seniors, and are likely to find success this year.

Northwestern Defense:
Defensive Line:
The top four tacklers from last year’s defensive line return as the starters this year. Seniors John Gill and Kevin Mims are at tackle and guard, respectively, while end Cory Wooton and tackle Adam Hahn are juniors. Wooton was very good as a freshman, but fell off fairly significantly last year. The backups are reatively unheralded or are changing positions from offense to defense.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Gill was an honorable mention all-conference performer last year, and if Wootton can reprise his 2006 performance, the NU defensive line will actually be pretty strong. Hahn and Mims are less likely to make noise, but rather will make plays when needed and allow their more productive teammates to carry the load.

Linebackers:
Senior Malcolm Arrington was a part-time starter at OLB last year, and he will move inside for a starting position this year. Senior Mike Dinard, who managed to get 6 starts at the position last year, will be one of the outside ‘backers. The other position will be manned by Prince Kwateng, who got 9 starts as on OLB in 2007. Backup Quentin Davie is a redshirt sophomore who managed to make a few waves last year, as is Nate Williams.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Adam Kadela was the best player on Northwestern’s defense last year, by a factor of about 1000. If the players stepping in can step up to fill in as well as they can (he got nearly 3 times as many tackles as the next leading linebacker), they should be able to rely on an improved and experienced defensive line to allow them to flow to the ball and make tackles.

Defensive Backs:
The team’s second-leading tackler last year, Reggie McPherson, is gone. Replacing him at safety will be true junior Brendan Smith. The free safety will be Brad Phillips, who was a strong safety (and starter) for most of last year. The corner positions will be manned by junior Sherrick McManis, who started every game last year, and Justin Vaughn, a redshirt sophomore who made his way into 7 games last year.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Without McPherson and Battle, the northwestern secondary should struggle. Add that to the fact that they weren’t particularly good last year (98th in pass efficiency defense), and this should be the type of year where opponents are able to throw, throw, throw the ball. If the DL can’t get to the QB enough to keep pressure off the secondary, it could be another year of havi
ng the ball flung all over on them.

Defensive Analysis:
Unless the new defensive coordinator is a miracle worker (he’s not: he got fired from Wisconsin for not being up to defensive guru Bret Bielema’s standards), this could be a tough year for the Northwestern D. The D-line should be fairly strong, but the other two units are severely depleted. When taking into account that the Wildcats weren’t even good with the players they lost, it could spell big trouble.

Special Teams:
Senior Amado Villareal is the returning starter at kicker, and redshirt sophomore Stefan Demos is the retuning punter.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Neither Villareal nor Demos was inspiring last year, and Villareal was actually pretty crappy. Unless both improve in the offseason, special teams will not be a strength for Northwestern.

Overall Analysis:
Northwestern has a senior-laden team, and they are counting on that experience to carry them through the year. If Bacher can stop turning the ball over, the offense should be able to move the ball. The defense is expected to improve under a new coordinator, but color me unimpressed. I think Northwestern will be a bit better than they were last year, but don’t expect to see dramatic improvement.

Posted under Analysis

Minnesota Offense:
QBs
Adam Weber had a very good redshirt freshman season, though it wasn’t quite impressive enough to get much attention in the preseason. He is expected to start again for the Gophers. Backing him up will be JuCo transfer David Pittman and true freshman Marquies Gray.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Minnesota is very inexperienced in the QB ranks, and an injury to Weber could be devestating (especially with the head coach’s son transferring away from Minnesota). Weber looks to build upon his good season last year, and Gopher fans would like him to make better decisions, as he threw 19 interceptions last year.

RBs
Amir Pinnix, starter for most of the year, is gone. True sophomore Duane Bennett also got plenty of opportunity to start, and he will be the full-timer this year. Junior Jay Thomas will play behind him. Freshmen will provide depth and get experience for the future.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Pinnix was the team’s leading RB rusher, but QB Adam Weber actually led the entire team. By the end of the year, Duane Bennett had replaced Pinnix as the starter. Bennett and Jay Thomas will carry the majority of the load, with members of Tim Brewster’s ridiculous recruiting class (especially for a coach who went 1-11 in his first year) filling in where needed. These players are expected to be a better fit for the spread than Pinnix may have been.

Receivers:
White Eric Decker has been described by Brewster as “one of the top receivers in the country,” and the redshirt junior, who led the team in receiving last year, will again be the #1 option. Ernie Wheelwirght graduated, and true sophomores Tray Herndon (#3 in recieving last year) and Ralph Spry will likely be the second and third receivers. The tight end position (which Brewster coached for the Denver Broncos until becoming the headman in the Twin Cities) will be manned by senior Jack Simmons, who was the starter last year despite never reaching full health. As is the case with any position on a crappy team that has a good incoming recruiting class, expect freshmen to challenge for several positions.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Brewster’s breathless adoration of Decker may have been a bit much for a player who didn’t even garner all-conference honors last year
. Wheelwright was a big target for the Gophers (both literally and in terms of catches), but replacing him with more spread-friendly players may help out Minnesota’s offense.

Line:
At left tackle, redshirt junior Jason Meinke will be the starter, despite having very limited experience. Next to him will be Nedward Tavale, a redshirt junior who started at right guard his freshman year, and about half the games at left guard last year. Center will be manned by Jeff Tow-Arnett, a redshirt junior whose playing time has primarily come at guard so far. Right guard will be manned by returning starter DJ Burris, a redshirt sophomore. Right tackle will be Dominic Alford, a redshirt sophomore who started the last five games at that position last year.

Analysis:
Minnesota will be starting a fairly young line. That could give Gophers fans nightmares, especially with a nearly-green left tackle protecting Adam Weber’s blindside. The spread offense may be able to neutralize a bit of this weakness, though not all of it. The tackles and center are spaced by relatively experienced guards, and Alford actually got some pretty good experience last year.

Offensive Analysis:
Minnesota loses some important personnel, especially in the line, and that may hurt the offense a bit this year. Of course, the offense wasn’t the problem with Minnesota last year, as they put up pretty decent yardage. The main issue on this side of the ball was the turnover. A more experienced Weber may lead the Gophers to some pretty decent numbers this year as well.

Minnesota Defense:
Defensive Line:
True junior Lee Campbell and reshirt senior Willie VanDeSteeg are returning starters at defensive end. In the middle, junior Eric Small will start, after being a part-timer last year. Garrett Brown, the other tackle, is the freshest one of the bunch, as the junior only had 3 starts last year. JuCo transfers Tim McGee and Cedric McKinley figure to play a prominent role as backup DTs, while former Tennessee Volunteer Raymond Henderson, a redshirt junior, will be the main backup at DE.

Statistics:

Analysis:
The defensive line for Minnesota didn’t do much last year, which may have been the source of the defense’s problems stopping people. Only 7 sacks for the entire unit was a complete disappointment, especially considering VanDeSteeg’s all-Big Ten second team performance the previous year. The line adds experience from both the JuCo ranks and Tennessee, and they return most of their starters. This figures to be an improved unit, though the degree of that improvement remains to be seen.

Linebackers:
MLB Deon Hightower returns after being second on the entire team in tackles last year. Steve Davis, also a senior, returns as well. Despite not being among the top tacklers last year, this was primarily due to injury. He will take back over on the strong side. Juco transfer Rex Sharpe was in Minneapolis for spring practice, and is expected to be the starter on the weakside. The Gophers don’t have a ton of depth at linebacker, especially with the sad story of top recruit Sam Maresh, who will be unable to play do to a heart defect.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Davis’s injury could be used as some sort of excuse for the reason that Minnesota struggled so badly on defense. However, there must be more to it than that. Replacing to departing starters with a former starter and a junior college player is better than replacing them with completely green players, and Minnesota will gladly make the best of the circumstance.

Defensive Backs:
Two starters appear to be set in stone in the secondary, and luckily for the Gophers, they aren’t the ones who are returning starters. With Brewster revealing at Big Ten media days that JC transfers Traye Simmons and Tremaine Brock are expected to start at corner and free safety, respectively, the other two positions will likely be left to the incumbent starters, sophomores Ryan Collado at corner and Kyle Theret (who started half the Minnesota games last year) at SS. Dominique Barber is the key player leaving from the secondary.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Brewster’s strategy of getting immediate help with junior college players may be able to pay off in the short term. However, these players are likely to be academic risks as well, so he needs to be careful in future classes. The secondary doesn’t appear to be facing that much of a dropoff (despite losing the team’s leading tackler).

Defensive Analysis:
Minnesota’s defense was god-awful last year, and they have pretty much nowhere to go but up. With an infusion of junior college talent, they may be able to do just that. Brewtser has been critical of effort and talent, rather than scheme in the offseason, so the great recruiting class should bring some immediate help.

Special Teams:
Kicker Jason Giannini was replaced by Joel Monroe las year, and Monroe will return for his senior year. Punter Justin Kucek will be a 5th-year senior.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Giannini was the 2005 and ’06, but when he single-handedly lost the Miami game with 3 missed field goals, he was pulled for Monroe who was really, really good. Kucek is a pretty good punter, too.

Overall Analysis:
Tim Brewster is nothing if not optimistic, and his belief in talent over scheme should mean that nothing much will change for the Gophers right away, until some of the talent they bring in starts contributing all the time. The offense should improve slightly from last year, with similar production but fewer turnovers (the Gophers were almost bottom of the barrel in 2007). Minnesota wasn’t really as bad as the record seems, with 3 overtime losses, and only 4 of their losses (Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois, and… Indiana?) coming by more than a pair of scores. Expect slight, but noticeable improvement from Minnesota in 2008.

Posted under Analysis

Purdue Offense:
QBs
Curtis Painter enters his final season at Purdue with hype as the conference’s best quarterback, and perhaps a first-round draft pick (I think this speaks more to the quality of the rest of the nation’s QBs, not Painter’s supreme skill). Backing him up will be Joey Elliott and redshirt freshman Justin Siller.

Statistics:

Analysis:
I think Painter is being overrated in most preseason publications. He is a fairly efficient passer, but it comes in a system that asks the quarterback to get the ball to receivers and allow them to get YAC. He rarely is asked to throw deep, and instead throws lots of screens and slants with major help from his WRs. If he gets hurt, however, Elliott is probably a big step back. While Painter isn’t Heisman material, he is still probably the best QB in the conference.

RBs
Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor will be the primary ballcarriers for the Boilermaker offense. Sheets is a 5th-year senior, while Sheets is a redshirt junior. True sophomore Dan Dierking will play behind them. Fullback Frank Halliburton paves the way when the Boilers go to a strong set.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Sheets and Taylor gain yardage primarily due to the spread’s ability to bring defenders out of the box rather than their own ability. However, they are competent backs, and each is a threat to receive the ball as well. Neither should challenge for all-conference, but they will get the job done when called upon.

Receivers:
Dorien Bryant finally graduates after what seemed like 100 years at Purdue, and tight end Dustin Keller is gone as well. Selwyn Lymon was expected to be a big contributor for the Boilermakers, but he had off-field troubles and is no longer with the team. That leaves big Greg Orton as the primary playmaker. Tight end Kyle Adams and 5th year receiver Desmond Tardy should also play big roles for Purdue. As often as this school throws the ball around, they aren’t particularly deep at wideout.

Statistics:

Dustin Keller is
not morally opposed to statistical anomalies.

Analysis:
One thing I’m surprised about is the receivers’ lack of rushing attempts last year, given the bubble screen-happy nature of the “basketball on grass” offense. With the losses of 4 of their top 5 receivers, Purdue has very little depth. One injury could really screw them over, given wide receivers’ importance to this offense. Younger players will have to step up and carry some of the load.

Line:
Left tackle Sean Sester is the most experienced lineman of the bunch, as the fifth year has started 38 games for Purdue (I’d be surprised if this wasn’t more than every Michigan lineman combined – not just the starters). The other bookend will be former walkon and redshirt junior Zach Jones, who started nearly every game for Purdue last year. On the interior, redshirt junior Zach Reckman returns after starting every game at left guard last year. The final two positions have been vacated by Jordan Grimes and Robbie Powell. 5th-year senior Cory Benton will fill the center slot, with redshirt sophomore Justin Pierce filling in the final guard position.

Analysis:
With three starters back, including both tackles, Painter should have the protection he needs to get the ball to the playmakers on the edges. Though Purdue rarely excels in rush offense, this is more because they think of it as an afterthought to passing, not because they can’t block.

Offensive Analysis:
Curtis Painter should continue to improve, limiting his turnovers in 2008. The passing game at Purdue will, as always, allow Painter to make easy throws and rack up yardage. The run game will be more of a change of pace than anything. With three returning O-linemen and experienced running backs, the offense should click as long as the wideouts can step up.

Purdue Defense:
Defensive Line:
The team leader in TFLs and sacks, Cliff Avril, is gone from one defensive end spot. Eugene Bright, who split time with Keyon Brown at the other end, is also gone. Brown will take over full-time for his senior year. The other end spot will be taken over by Ryan Kerrigan, a true sophomore. Both starting defensive tackles return, with Ryan Baker entering his fifth year and Alex Magee a true senior. Backups will be Mike Neal and Jared Zwilling.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Cliff Avril was a farily accomplished pass rusher, so it may be difficult to replace him. However, the other three starting linemen return, with Keyon Brown taking over full time at the end spot. This unit will struggle to get to the quarterback without Avril.

Linebackers:
Anthony Heygood is back for his fifth year, starting in one of the positions. However, the Boilers’ next three leading tacklrs at the linebacker position are gone, leaving starting positions to relatively-inexperienced Tyler Haston and Kevin Green. They will have to learn fast, since they have primarily been special teams players to this point in their careers.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Losing several of your most important players at a position is never a good thing. However, Heygood was the best linebacker for Purdue, and should continue to be. If the other linebackers aren’t up to task, however, it could be along year for the Boilermakers.

Defensive Backs:
Corner Terrell Vinson is gone, as is safety Justin Scott. The returners in the secondary will be junior corner David Pender, who played in every game and started most of them, and safety Brandon King, a senior who got every start last year. Replacing the departees will probably be senior corner Royce Adams, who got the starts last year that Pender didn’t, and either senior Adam Wolf or junior Josh McKinley at safety.

Sttatistics:

Analysis:
The Boilers lose their top two tacklers from the secondary, though I personally subscribe to the school of “if a corner is among your leading tacklers it means he can’t cover anyone.” However, the secondary loses its best two players nonetheless.

Defensive Analysis:
Purdue, despite having some fairly strong defenses earlier this decade, has never been known for its defense, but rather its fairly innovative offense. The trend should continue this year, with no stars on the D. It appears as though Purdue will have to outscore most of its opponents if the Boilers want to win (see: Motor City Bowl: Purdue 51, Central Michigan 48).

Special Teams:
Junior kicker Chris Summers returns, but punter Jared Armstrong departs. Armstrong will likely be replaced by Brody McKnight, or Summers will take care of both duties.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Summers is one of the most consistent kickers in the conference. The punting situation is unknown, but losing a multi-year starter is never referred.

Overall Analysis:
Purdue should turn in its standard middle-of-the-pack performance this yea runless Painter balls out of his mind. Expect a loss to a team they shouldn’t lose to, and maybe a victory over a game peopel don’t expect them to win. In the end, Purdue is an offensively-oriented team this year, and it is too difficult to win championships with that build.

Posted under Analysis

Michigan State Offense:
QBs
Brian Hoyer wasn’t terrible last year, but in several games, he wasn’t particularly far from it (Boston College, though that was almost entirely on the coaching staff). Both of his primary backups from last year return, in the form of Nick Foles and Conner Dixon. Each only played in the first game last year, so Foles will be a redshirt freshman in 2008, and Dixon a redshirt sophomore.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Hoyer is a competent game-manager, but when asked to throw when the Spartans could be running, he sucked (see: BC). He is nothing to fear for opposing defenses, and if they can stop the run, Hoyer won’t win games for them. However, if the ground game can remain consistent, he should be a liability. Behind him, there is little help (especially since Keith Nichol won’t be eligible until 2009).

RBs
Last year, State employed something of a “thunder and lightning” approach to sharing carries, a term of which I am starting to get quite sick. Javon Ringer was the speedy guy, and he will return for his senior season. Jehuu Caulcrick, the between-the-tackles guy, has graduated. Depth player Brett Kahn also departs. AJ Jimmerson is not as big as Caulcrick was, but the junior will hope to get some of the inside carries. Andre Anderson got a few carries in the first game of the year, but redshirted for the Spartans.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Ringer is one of the better running backs in the conference, but it remains to be seen if he can carry a significant majority of the load. If some of the younger guys can step up, this area should be a strength for the Spartans. Its development will be key to offensive success (see: quarterbacks).

Receivers:
Devin Thomas was a two-year wonder for the Spartans, going pro after one good year in green and white (he caught only 6 passes in 2006). Starting TE Kellen Davis is also gone. Stepping into primary roles for the receiving corps will be sophomore Mark Dell and senior Deon Curry. Other players will have to emerge that didn’t get significant playing time last year, or Hoyer might be in big trouble.

Statistics:

Analysis:
I think Thomas’s high number of carries last year was a way for Dantonio to get the ball into his best playmaker’s hands, rather than a sign that he loves to have WRs run the ball. The majority of their damage will be through the air. With a couple young guys stepping in to replace the top couple pass receivers from last year, MSU needs them to step up. They wono’t be specatular, like Thomas was last year, but State fans are hoping they can be consistent performers.

Line:
Michigan State loses 3/5 of their starting line from last year, with Pete Clifford, Kenny Shane, and John Masters graduating after five years in Green and White. On the right side, Roland Martin and Jesse Miller are back at guard and tackle, respectively. Martin will shift over to the left guard position for his senior year. The left tackle slot will be filled by junior Rocco Cironi. Center and right guard will be filled by juniors Joel Nitchman and Brendon Miller.

Analysis:
The MSU offensive line was fairly successful last year, paving the way for the nation’s #25 rushing attack, though they were #77 in the nation in keeping Hoyer off the turf. They look to take big steps back in both categories, losing significant personnel, including the left tackle, from their own ranks, while the team’s second-leading rusher is gone as well. Javon Ringer probably won’t be as successful this year, and with new receivers and worse protection, Hoyer will probably get hit quite a bit more as well.

Offensive Analysis:
Javon Ringer should be the cog that makes the Spartan machine go, though he seems poised to get more carries this year than he has at any point in his career, and isn’t necessarily built to take a big pounding. Hoyer won’t win any games on his own, and though he may be able to lose one or two, it is more likely that he will be a game-manager. He lost his top couple targets, and the Spartans don’t have a lot of experience returning in the wings to fill in. With a mostly-new offensive line, including the left tackle, there could be trouble up front for MSU. Expect a step back in terms of offensive production.

Michigan State Defense:
Defensive Line:
5th-year snior Justin Kershaw is the only returning starter along the defensive line. The other starter, sophomore Oren Wilson, will replace Ogemdi Nwagbuo. Wilson got some playing time last year, but is still a very young player. Replacing the D-line’s two leading tacklers at defensive end will be senior Brandon Long and junior Trevor Anderson. Anderson didn’t accumulate any stats last year.

Statistics:

Jordan is l
isted on the spring depth chart as a backup TE. Stipek is listed on the spring depth chart at OG.

Analysis:
Ouch. Three of the top four tacklers are gone, including the self-nicknamed “Sack Master” Jonal Saint-Dic (side note – most of his sacks came against the outstanding offensive lines of Bowling Green, Pitt, and Notre Dame). A couple other guys who were listed at DL are now on the spring depth chart on offense. The players remaining to fill holes here mostly have very few tackles (read: have played almost exclusively on special teams). This looks to be an area of weakness (or at least improving over the course of the year) for the Spartans.

Linebackers:
Among the starters at linebacker, only Kaleb Thornhill has departed. He will be replaced in the middle by junior Adam Decker. On the outside, Greg Jones and Eric Gordon return after big freshman years (Gordon as a redshirt). Backing up the starters will be redshirt sophomore Jon Misch, and juniors Josh Roush and Brandon Denson.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Jones and Gordon had an exceptional year for a pair of freshmen. If they continue to improve, they could be huge players for the Spartans down the line. Regardless, Thornhill was regarded to be the best linebacker for State last year. If Adam Decker can step in and fill the void, the outside backer’s should be free to make some plays. The troubling aspect of this is that Decker didn’t accumulate any stats last year, despite being listed as the backup at the position.

Defensive Backs:
Kendell Davis-Clark returns for his senior season as the team’s #1 corner. Ross Weaver is gone at the other corner spot, and will be replaced by Ashton Henderson. Travis Key, Otis Wiley, and Nehemiah Warrick rotated playing time at safety last year (Wiley was the nominal backup to Key, but also played as the nickel back). Key and Warrick are gone, leaving Wiley to start at strong safety. At free safety, Roderick Jenrette will take over after playing primarily on special teams last year. Chris Rucker, Jeremy Ware, Marcus Hyde, and Dan Fortener are the primary backups in the defensive secondary.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Though Davis-Clark was the secondary’s leading tackler last year, there is always a sense of discomfort when that honor goes to a corner – it usually just means he can’t cover a receiver to save his life. This, in effect, means State lost its two best DBs. Considering they weren’t even particularly good, that could spell trouble in the secondary. Ross Weaver was listed as a sophomore last year, but is nowhere to be found on MSU’s spring depth chart. If he comes back, I doubt Michigan fans would lament his return.

Defensive Analysis:
Losing very important pieces on the DL and in the secondary should spell trouble for the passing game. If the new D-linemen can hold their own against the run, State’s linebackers should be able to make some plays. However, with youth and inexperience all over the defense, expect to see a step back from the Spartan defense as well.

Special Teams:
Aaron Bates returns as punter, though he was kinda crappy last year. Brett Swenson wasn’t particularly good last year, either, hitting on a Gingellian 68% of his field goals (just kidding, Gingell was 3/9).

Statistics:

Analysis:
Expect improvement from both specialists, if only because there is nowhere to go but up.

Overall Analysis:
I came into this preview expecting to see State poised to make another run to the upper-middle of the Big Ten, but they lost so many key pieces that I don’t think that is likely. I think MSU will take a step back in 2008, with both the offense and defense struggling a bit. Dantonio is a good coach, which Spartans fans should count on as the factor that will get them into a bowl game again.

Posted under Analysis

Penn State Offense:
QBs
After a couple of underachieving years as the starter, Anthony Morelli has graduated from Penn State, and Jay Paterno is looking for a new player to prevent from improving. Daryll Clark (notable to Michigan fans mostly for being the second QB knocked out by the 2006 Wolverine defense) and Pat Devlin, a true sophomore who had the trademark wasted redshirt year last year (one attempt) will battle for the starting position. Behind them is Paul Cianciolo (the only Nittany Lions QB not to be pwned by Alan Branch in ’06), who will serve in a backup capacity. Clark will probably start, as he is the most experienced and mobile signal-caller for the new “Spread HD” offense.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Clark has a little experience, and is quite mobile. However, it is easy to question whether he is half the leader that Michael Robinson was the last time Penn State went to a spread offense, in 2005 (answer: no). Devlin is a little-experienced but guru-approved backup who will get the experience to take over when Clark leaves. Quarterback will probably be a liability for the Nittany Lions, but that isn’t too different from Morelli’s days as a starter.

RBs
Rodney Kinlaw and Austin Scott (who missed much of last aseason after being accused and later acquitted of sexual assault) are both gone, and last year’s second-leading rusher, redshirt sophomore Evan Royster, will be the new starter. Taking carries from him will be redshirt freshman Stephfon Green, who was very impressive in the Penn State spring game. Royster is a between-the-tackles traditional Penn State running back, whereas Green is a speedy guy who will try to get to the corner. Other running backs will be Brandon Beachum and Brent Carter.

Statistics:

Analysis:
A bit of thunder-and-lightning should be a good complement to Penn State’s “spread” offense, as long as they can execute it well. Kinlaw doesn’t have starting experience, but he is not without some significant playing time in his career. While Green was impressive in the spring game, it remains to be seen whether he can do it in a real game. There isn’t a ton of depth behind the two, despite the fact that lots of different guys got carries last year. and they will have to avoid injuries for the Nittany Lions to have effective running from the tailbacks.

Receivers:
The vaunted trio of Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood, and Deon Butler has reached maturation, and 2005’s freshman phenoms are in their last year at Penn State. Derrick Williams seems to be a bit of a Steve Breaston-type, with a great first year, then declining production each of the next two. Perhaps he can become an important roleplayer as a senior, much like Breaston did. Norwood is a local boy who earned a scholarship and has gone on to be a successful wideout himself. Deon Butler is the most consistent of the three, and should be the leading receiver for Penn State again this year. Behind the starters, there is almost nobody with either name recognition or playing time. At tight end, Andrew Quarless is perpetually suspended, and it is unclear at this point wwhether he will even be on the team come fall. If the junior is off the team, junior Mickey Shuler will take over the starting role.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Can the Penn State receivers match the production of their freshman season? They may need to exceed it with a less proven running game in 2008. If Williams can accept a role, and allow the other two seniors to be “the guy,” I think Penn State’s success at receiver is dependent only on the ability of the quarterback to get them the ball. One potential problem is a lack of size. Terrell Golden and Chris Bell were the only receivers standing greater than 6 feet, and both are no longer with the team. The Nittany Lions like to get the ball to their playmakers in the backfield as well, and opportunities may increase with a move to Spread HD.

Line:
Penn State returns its entire offensive line, and there is enough talent in the trenches to still have a position controversy of sorts. Senior left tackle Gerald Cadogan was honorable mention all-conference last year. Redshirt senior left guard Rich Ohrenberger started every single game, while getting second-team all-conference honors. Center AQ Shipley returns for his senior season after a junior campaign in which he was named 1st-team all-conference. At right guard, redshirt senior Matt Lucian, who started most of the season last year, will battle true sophomore Stefen Wisniewski for the starting position. At right tackle, redshirt junior Dennis Landolt started each game last year.

Analysis:
The left 3/5 of the offensive line returns with all-conference honors of some sort from 2007, while the remaining two linemen will be returning starters (or a true sophomore who beats out a returning starter). The line is very strong, particularly on the left side. I would expect the Nittany Lions to be able to create holes in the running game, as well as protect the quarterback from being sacked, especially on account of Daryl Clark being able to make plays with his feet.

Offensive Analysis:
Strengths: Line, WR.
Weaknesses: QB, RB.
The spread seems to be a good offensive fit for Penn State to make the most out of its talent, though they’d better not put too much pressure on Daryll Clark. I don’t think they’ll put up big numbers, but they should be able to do what it takes to win most of the time. Since the defense may be strong enough to get some wins on its own, look for a performance similar to 2005. The only concern I have is the lack of a true leader, unless one of the WRs can step up.

Penn State Defense:
Defensive Line:
Junior Maurice Evans was 1st-team all-conference last year, and returns at one of the defensive end spots. On the other side is senior Josh Gaines, who started every game last year. Backing up the defensive ends are highly-regarded redshirt freshman Devon Still and moderately-less-regarded sophomore Aaron Maybin. At defensive tackle, troubled Chris Baker is off the team for a variety of transgressions. Junior Phillip Taylor was suspended for the spring, and junior Jared Odrick missed much of last season with injury. Those two are expected to start, with Ollie Ogbu the first off the bench as a sophomore.

Statistics:

Analysis:
The turmoil along the front four (Baker’s removal from the team, Taylor’s spring suspension) could mean this unit lacks a bit of cohesion early in the year. Evans will be a pass-rush specialist, with the other three more of run-stuffers. This is an experienced defensive line that should be able to produce, especially by their 8th game. They didn’t lose much from last year, and should excel in ’08.

Linebackers:
Dan Connor is off to the NFL, while Sean Lee will spend all year in the training room. This means that Penn State must replace linebackers at two positions, while senior Tyrell Sales will return as the starter at one OLB spot. The other two positions will likely be filled by Bani Gbadyu, a sophomore who got playing time in every game last year, with true sophomore Chris Colasanti, who got little playing time in 2007, filling in at the all-important middle position. Jerome Hayes, Andrew Dailey, and Navorro Bowman are the primary backups.

Statistics:

Analysis:
It’s hard to imagine linebacker being a point of weakness at Penn State, but with the two top tacklers from last year’s team (and the entire conference) gone, this may be the case. Colasanti will have to step up big time to preserve the tradition of LB U, and Gbadyu should fill his outside spot well. With the Lee injury, depth should be a concern, but PSU stockpiles linebackers very well.

Defensive Backs:
Corner Justin King left early for the NFL, but he is the only key defensive back to be leaving the Nittany Lions. Senior safeties Anthony Scirotto and Tony Davis return, as does corner Lydell Sargent. Junior A.J. Wallace was the primary nickel last year, and he will be the only starter who isn’t a senior. The nickel will be assumed by junior Knowledge Timmons, also the first corner off the bench. Devin Fentress is the other backup at corner. The safeties are backed up by senior Mark Rubin (who got several starts last year) and redshirt freshman Nick Sukay.

Statistics:

Analysis:
King was a first-team all-conference performer, but Penn State fans largely believe that he underachieved in his junior year. The other three starters return, and Penn State should have some pretty good cohesion in the back. Scirotto was a pretty good playmaker last year, intercepting balls when he wasn’t busy rounding up a posse to regulate on somebody’s apartment party. The Nittany Lions look for him to continue this, and they should be successful this season. My one worry from last year was that a corner, not a safety, was the leading tackler in the secondary, but it can be partially explained by the fact that different free safeties started.

Defensive Analysis:
The secondary is very strong and the defensive line has a great playmaker in Maurice Evans. This definitely appears to be a Penn State team that should be able to stop teams from passing on them. With a bit of uncertainty along the defensive line, however, and the lack of the Big Ten’s top two tacklers from 2007, the vulnerabilities will definitely be in the run game. The Penn State OLBs are pretty quick, which should slow down the zone-read option game, but the MLB is completely green, so the inside run game may be able to have some success.

Special Teams:
Kevin Kelly returns for his senior campaign as the Nittany Lions’ kicker. Junior Jeremy Boone punted for Penn state last year, and despite uninspiring results, should return for 2008.

Statistics:

Analysis:
The kicking game will be a strong point for Penn State. In returns, AJ Wallace and Derrick Williams make up one of the most formidable units in the country.

Overall Analysis:
It’s easy to see why Penn State is projected near the top of the Big Ten. They return several players from one of the best recruiting classes in their recent history. However, there is also a lot of uncertainty for the Nittany Lions. The quarterback is relatively inexperienced, as are their running backs. The offensive line and receiving corps will have to help them out a lot. On defense, the linebackers appear to be the weak point – very odd in State College. If a few things break Penn State’s way, they can challenge for the BCS.

Posted under Analysis

Toledo Offense:
QBs
The Rockets had a ton of injury problems at the signal-caller position last year. Aaron Opelt, now a true junior, was the primary starter, but he missed time in several games. Backup Clint Cochran, now a 5th-year who is listed on the roster but not the depth chart, played until he was injured as well. DJ Lenehan had been expected to redshirt, but now enters the 2008 season with a few starts under his belt. Depth will be provided by JC transfer Alex Pettee.

Statistics:

Analysis:
If nothing else, the injuries to Toledo quarterbacks have prepared the backups to get some playing time in the future. Opelt is the main guy here, but the Rockets are prepared if he goes down. He is the most mobile threat of the bunch, and his passer rating wasn’t that much lower than the likes of Chad Henne in 2007 (albeit against much weaker competition). He should be able to sling it pretty well this year.

RBs
Toledo loses last year’s leading rusher in Jalen Parmele. Returning is their second leading rusher, redshirt junior DaJuane Collins. After QB Aaron Opelt, true sophomore Gordon Warner was next in rushing for the Rockets. Behind them, little-used redshirt sophomore Jason Washington and used-even-less-frequently true sophomore DeAndre Ware bring the depth. Adonis Thomas redshirted last year, and should be able to jump these two on the depth chart.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Parmele carried the vast majority of the load for Toledo last year, and losing a drafted player will certainly not help the ground game this year. Collins and Warner will likely get a more even share of the carries than the #1 and #2 have for the Rockets in the recent past, but it is unlikely that they will be able to perform to the level that Parmele did in the past couple years. Expect a big dropoff at the top, with some compensation in the form of better depth behind the top couple RBs.

Receivers:
The leading receiver for Toledo last year returns in the form of redshirt junior Stephen Williams, a second-team all-conference selection. Redshirt senior Nick Moore was directly behind him, followed by a host of now-departed players in TE Chris Hopkins, as well as WRs Andrew Hawkins and David Washington. Senior John Allen will now start at the TE position (backed up by redshirt junior Tom Burzine), and redshirt freshman Tom Cortazzo, who was second string last year but did not play, will man the third WR spot. RS junior Robin Bailey will be a backup at wideout, but several players who didn’t receive playing time last year will have to step up now.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Toledo didn’t spread the ball around as much as many teams do, with their top 2 receivers getting the vast, vast majority of the receptions. With the next three behind them (in addition to the leading receiver at RB) gone, they may take an even larger proportion. While most smaller
schools tend to have short, speedy guys, the Rockets have starters who are 6-1, 6-4, and 6-5. Michigan’s corners will have to use good technique and superior athleticism to keep toledo from going over the top.

Line:
Along the line, Toledo’s returners all come on the interior. True sophomore right guard Kevin Kowalski started most of the season at the position past year, as a true freshman. Center Buster Garrett is a redshirt junior, and he started several games at the position last year. Projected left guard Jared Dewalt is a true junior who gained starting time at right guard his freshman year, then started at right tackle most of last year. The tackles ar both new, with redshirt freshman Mike VanderMeulen taking over on the left side, and redshirt sophomore Chris Meenan, who got playing time in 8 games last year, on the right. The backups are generally inexperienced freshmen, except right guard Patrick Dawson, a senior who has been the primary backup for the past 3 years.

Analysis:
New tackles could mean that Aaron Opelt ends up on his back a lot. However, both of their new guys are good-sized, and the Rockets are hoping they can protect Opelt. With the new outside linemen and a new starting running back, I wouldn’t be surprised to see rush yards go down and sacks go up. Opelt’s escapability is the wildcard in that equation.

Offensive Analysis:
Losing your leading rusher, an NFL draft pick, has to hurt the Rockets. If Opelt can stay healthy this year, Toledo will probably toss the bal around a bit more than they did last year, though several of the top targets are no longer in blue and gold. This year should be a rebuilding one for the Toledo offense, but they should come on strong in 2009 with only 1 starter a senior this year. 2008 will also be a transition year to a new offensive coordinator, which bodes poorly for this campaign, but well for ’09.

Toledo Defense:
Defensive Line:
Sean Williamston returns to the Rockets after being injured for the entire 2007 season. The redshirt senior will start at one defensive end spot. At the other spot, a sophomore phenom-of-sorts in Alex Johnson, who led the DL in tackles last year, will start. This displaces former starter Doug Westbrook, but I can’t imagine Johnson not starting after the year he had (and neither is close to large enough to move inside). Art the tackle spots, junior Skylaar Constant will man one starting position. The true junior got 7 starts last year. At the other spot, true junior Maurice Hill and true senior Alfred Martin will duke it out for the starting nod.

Statistics:

Analysis:
With two positions not entirely settled going into the fall, Toledo should have a fair amount of depth. Their DL is very light, however (heaviest projected starter is 6-2, 282), and they may be pushed off the ball with relative ease by a team with the talent of Michigan. The inside run should be a vulnerability, and the ends are closer to pinebacker size than they are to true run-stuffers.

Linebackers:
The Rockets run a 4-2-5 defense, but for the sake of my sanity, the rover shall be considered a linebacker. Returning at that position is Toledo’s leading tackler from last year, now-junior Lester Richmond. At the linebacker positions (not sure of the nomenclature in a 4-2-5. Middle and weak?), Keith Forrestal will come back for his senior season, but the other starter from ’07, the Rockets’ second-leading tackler in Greg Hay, has graduated. Stepping in will probably be Archie Donald, a junior who started half the games his freshman year, but was out for last season with academic troubles. The backups at linebacker all have
some starting experience, and juniors Beau Brudzinski, Derrick Summers, and Joe Shuler (rover) should not be huge liabilities when they spell the starters.

Statistics:

Analysis:
The 4-2-5 defense is designed to stop spread attacks, replacing a true linebacker with a hybrid LB/safety. Toledo runs such a system, but it remains to be seen whether it is effective against high-talent spread teams. Behind the primary backups, Toledo returns virtually nobody, so they may try to get a bit more depth developed this year. The return of Archie Donald give Toledo a pretty athletic LB to counter Forrestal’s bigger size.

Defensive Backs:
Toledo returns four starters at defensive back, and has enough quality players that one of the returners wasn’t even able to hold onto his starting spot in the spring. At corner, junior Walter Atkins returns as a starter, and Desmond Marrow, who redshirted last year with a foot injury, wrested the starting spot away from true sophomore Myshan Pettis in the spring. This means the Rockets will have 3 quality corners. At the safety positions, junior Barry Church may be the most celebrated player on the team. The junior strong safety has been first team all-conference the past two years. At free, senior Tyrell Herbert, who started his freshman and sophomore years before being limited due to injury last year, gets the starting nod. His backup is the lanky (6-2, 166) junior Chris Murphy.

Statistics:

Analysis:
There is plenty of experience in the defensive backfield (despite not that many players, all of the top guys return plus Marrow), and surprisingly good size for a MAC team. The starting corners are 6-1 and 6-3, and both safeties are 6-2 and near 200 pounds. Church is the best of the bunch, and look for him to make most of the tackles. Toledo won’t be as susceptible to the passing game as you might expect, with their defensive style and experience in the secondary. However, the number of tackles Atkins made leads me to believe he’s far from a lockdown corner, as opposing quarterbacks neither feared throwing it his way nor failed to complete the passes they hurled in his direction.

Defensive Analysis:
The Toledo offense certainly doesn’t rely on the blitz game. Almost no sacks and very few tackles for loss came from the linebackers or secondary. For that matter, the linebackers didnt’ seem to do a ton in coverage either, registering no interceptions. Toledo instead relies on D-linemen to create pressure (both on the q
uarterback and for the opposing run game), linebackers to control the run game, and defensive secondary to take care of the pass. The latter should be the most successful this year, unless the d-line does nothing to get pressure on the QB.

Special Teams:
Kicker Alex Steigerwald returns after two solid years as the starter. Toledo loses punter Brett Kern, and he will be replaced by redshirt freshman Bill Claus. Return duties will have to be accounted for as Jalen Parmele handled them last year.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Kicking won’t be a liability, but the return game and punting could pose some problems for the Rockets.

Overall Analysis:
It’s so tough to do a final evaluation of teams like Toledo, because it’s so tempting to say “also, none of that mattered because their a MAC team and they played approximately nobody.” However, Toledo was really inconsistent last year, getting housed by Central Michigan, beating 1-AA Liberty by one point (better than Michigan could against a 1-AA team hur hur), and also doing things like hanging 70 on Northern Illinois and 52 on Eastern. It seems that Toledo should be a middle-of-the-pack MAC team, struggling against good compeition.

Posted under Analysis

Illinois Offense:
QBs
Juice Williams was expected to make a huge leap between 2006 and last year, and while his stats increased considerably, he was still the second least efficient passer in the Big Ten. The redshirt junior has the added benefit of being a runner first, passer second, which should open up more passing lanes, but this didn’t seem to help him enough. Backup Eddie McGee logged significant playing time last year, and the redshirt sophomore is faster than Juice (if not as electrifying).

Statistics:

Analysis:
Unless Williams or McGee manages to make huge strides towards being a better passer, the Illini will continue to rely on their veer-option attack, only going to the air when necessary. Without a talented back like Rashard Mendenhall to take off some of the heat, they will be relied upon to carry more of the load. If they can’t do it, the quarterback position could be a big liability for Illinois in 2008.

RBs
Last year’s leading rusher was team leader Rashard Mendenhall. He left early for the pros, and has since said some unkind things about Ron Zook (likely because of Rashard’s older brother, Walter, not getting any playing time with the Illini). Junior Daniel Dufrene, who was a junior college transfer, will start in the backfield this year. Redshirt freshman Troy Pollard, who was injured last year, is the tiny (5-8, 180) speedy type. True freshman Mikel LaShoure, who participated in spring ball, will likely be the third stringer. Paving the way will be redshirt freshman Darius Purcell, as the Illini lost fullback Russ Weil as well.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Losing Mendenhall is a huge blow. The Illini have tons of production to replace, and very little proven talent to do it. They have a couple of different style of back to give it a try, though I think that they wouldn’t excel even in tandem. Fortunately, Illinois’s unique scheme allows for other players to get a lot of offensive touches, which will help the RBs produce. Pollard was more effective before the injury last eyar, but he lacks the size to be a feature back.

Receivers:
Sophomore Arrelious Benn was Illinois’s go-to target last year, and his lack of touchdowns is more a product of Illinois’s passing ineptitude than any receiving deficiency by him. He broke several tackles to find the endzone against Penn State, and only Rashard Mendenhall was within 20 receptions of his production. True junior Jeff Cumberland is a TE/WR hybrid who typically plays away from the line. The other starting wideout is senior Kyle Hudson. he stands only 5-11, and actually had less receptions last year than DB Brian Gamble. The important departing player here is Jacob Willis. Marques Wilson and Chris James add depth. At tight end, ridiculously-named Michael Hoomanawanui is the starter. Fellow junior Tom Sullivan (my dad lolol) is the primary backup.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Gamble will probably move to offense full-time now, though I think throwing the ball to a couple DBs shows a lack of WR depth. Benn is clearly the star here, and he is electrifying on punt returns as well. If he is healthier than he was last year, it could be a special year, and his mentions on all-conference lists are warranted. The Illini didn’t lose many peple with a lot of receptions, but that’s because they didn’t have any receivers with a lot of receptions other than Benn. Look for Juice to try to spread the ball around a bit more this year.

Line:
At left tackle, senior Xavier Fulton returns. He started out his career as a defensive lineman, and after redshirting in 2006, he started every game at LT last year. At left guard, there is a battle between redshirt sophomores Brandon Jones and Randall Hunt. Each got a pair of starts last year. At center, senior Ryan McDonald returns. He has started every game at the position for the last two years. Last year he was second team all-conference. The right guard will be true junior John Asamoah, who started there last year as well. At right tackle, redshirt sophomore Ryan Palmer is projected to start. He gained some playing time last year as the second-stringer. The Illini have little depth behind the starters, which will be aided by early enrollments from three incoming offensive linemen.

Analysis:
Sack and rushing numbers are hard to compare for offensive lines when the quarterback is equal parts runner and passer. He skews rush yards upwards on scrambles, and is able to escape sacks with his feet. However, this is a fairly experienced unit, and Ryan McDonald should be their leader. The Illini’s rushing game will be more dependent on the quality of the backs than that of the offensive line.

Offensive Analysis:
Illinois was able to keep the ball on the ground last year, as Rashard Mendenhall and Juice Williams were able to run over many opponents’ defenses. With Mendenhall gone, the focus of this offense is completely on Juice. If he can pass more efficiently, there shouldn’t be that much of a dropoff in Illinois’s offensive output. However, if he is unable to keep defenses honest, the lack of a top-notch back will allow opposing defenses to shut down the Illini. Either way, he will likely remain a running QB first and foremost.

Illinois Defense:
Defensive Line:
Leading the defensive line for Illinois are returning starters Will Davis at defensive end and David Lindquist at defensive tackle. The seniors are the most experienced players in the Illini’s front 4, and Davis was a second team all-conference performer last year. At the other defensive tackle spot, redshirt freshman D’Angelo McCray is expected to start. He is massive at 6-4 330, and is likely to be a big run-stuffer. At the final position is Doug Pilcher. He has started almost every game over the past two years, and has provided good pressure off the edge. The backups are generally young, but they have experience, all having appeared in several games for the Illini already.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Illinois doesn’t depend on their defensive line to make a ton of tackles, but they di
d manage to get to the QB quite a bit. Their primary purpose is to keep the LBs available to make plays. With a much less certain LB corps this year, it will be interesting to see if that role changes. Illinois lost only a couple linemen, and several of the backups got plenty of playing time last year.

Linebackers:
J Leman, All American in both on-field performance and tie selection, is gone, along with fellow senior Antonio Steele. Both started for multiple years, and their losses will be huge. Brit Miller, the only returning starter, is a senior who will be changing positions to take over Leman’s spot in the middle. At the strongside, true sophomore Martez Wilson will take over. He was a very highly-touted recruit coming out of high school, and got some playing time last year. On the weakside, senior Rodney Pittman will take over. Despite his class standing, he has done very little in his career so far.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Unless the defensive line is beastly this year, the ilnebackers should struggle. There is little proven talent to replace Leman and Pittman, and Wilson is the only truly talented ‘backer who has gotten any significant playing time. Miller is a big boy, and Wilson has speed, so they have a good mix of skill sets to defend different types of plays.

Defensive Backs:
Vontae Davis is a very good corner, and the true junior is back after an all-conference season. At the other side is fellow junior Dere Hicks, who started every game last year. Illinois will be counting on several freshmen to serve as backups, which could mean struggles early in the year. At safety, two multi-year starters are gone, and sophomores Bo Flowers and Nate Bussey will step in. Flowers is more mature than most sophs, having played in the minor leagues for a few years. Both safeties have good size, but their backups are also inexperienced.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Two very important safeties are gone for the Illini (as well as their first backup, Justin Sanders). Davis and Hicks are good corners, but there is little depth behind them. Most of the other cornerbacks will be playing in their fifth college game. The defensive secondary has a good chance of taking a step back this year, and with little depth, they will probably be susceptible to exploitation by teams that strive to spread them out.

Defensive Analysis:
Illinois loses a good portion of their best players, aside from Vontae Davis and some of the guys along the defensive line. With new linebackers and safeties, this unit could be suspect. Their passing defense could struggle, though with strong defensive ends a speedy linebacker like Wilson, they seem particularly well-equipped to handle the read-option. Add in the fact that this is one of the few defenses that sees the option on a regular basis, and they could do well against Michigan, unless Steve Threet can excel as a passer.

Special Teams:
Jason Reda departs from the kicker position, leaving the spot for Mike Cklamovski, who was a kickoff specialist last year. Punter Anthony Santella returns. Arreilous Benn was electrifying on returns last year.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Losing Reda will hurt. He was big-legged and accurate. Santella is a decent but wholly underwhelming punter. Benn should be at least as effective as he was last year if he can stay healthy.

Overall Analysis:
I am personally of the opinion that Illinois ended up being vastly overrated last year, mostly on account of their upset victory over Ohio State. They were a decent team that largely overachieved. Because if this, people will undoubtedly look at their 2008 depth chart and say “lots of returning starters, including QB. They will be at least as good as last year.” I think this is a major mistake (especially since last year’s team shouldn’t be measured only by the 9 games they won). The Illini lost their best player on each side of the ball, and Juice Williams was bad enough last year that there was a quarterback controversy. I see last year as a Penn State 2005 “lightning in a bottle” type year, and think they will be middle of the pack at best this year.

Posted under Analysis