“State of” in the sense that Michigan is a state, and in the sense of a condition of being. Part 1: How does Ohio State continue to keep all of the best in-state talent for themselves, while Michigan players go to other schools, including USC and Michigan State?

Statewide Pipeline
The primary reason that Ohio State manages to keep all the best Ohio talent for itself is a lack of instate competition. Until Cincinnati moved to the Big East in 2005, OSU was the only BCS school in the state, and until the Big East (and Cincinnati under Brian Kelly) becomes more respected as a big-time conference (and legitimate major school), Ohio State will continue to reign supreme over its home turf. Perhaps coincidentally (or maybe not), the majority of teams in the state also share one important thing with the Buckeyes: the color red. Cincinnati, and Miami among Division I schools, and pro teams including the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians and Cavaliers have red as one of their colors. For comparison, Michigan has two main colors, which fans in their own stadium can’t even coordinate (and the pro teams share none of, unless you count the Pistons’ blue as being close enough to Michigan’s).

In Michigan, there are two BCS-level schools, both of whom compete in the Big Ten conference. While Michigan State is seen as more of a rival for non-revenue sports to Michigan fans (they concede basketball to the Spartans in exchange for football dominance), Spartan fans see the football rivalry as very real. Individuals who have been in the state for a long time can easily remember when MSU football was the big game in town (before Canham and Schembechler returned Michigan to Glory – and not in the LOL ND way). Overall, there is a near 50-50 split between Wolverine and Spartan fans in the Great Lakes State.

While having two popular schools in the state may not explain why talent is willing to leave entirely (and go to USC, for example), it certainly helps explain why there is no allegiance to a particular school. With no ties to UofM, Michigan’s players don’t feel obligated to give Michigan more of a shot. This is not the case in Ohio, where nearly every baby’s first outfit is either scarlet or gray.

In Michigan, the allegiance is not to one college team, but to one pro city, Detroit. The state throws itself behind the Tigers, Red Wings, Pistons, and (for some reason) Lions, then divides its attention between MSU and Michigan, and to a lesser extent the other state schools. I still remember the 2006 MSU game, where the score of the simultaneous Tigers game against the Yankees was announced, and Chad Henne had to take a timeout, because fans were cheering more for the Tigers (while the team that they actually paid money to see was on offense) than I have ever heard them cheer for Michigan. Ohio on the other hand, is a state united by one college team, Ohio State, and divided among several pro cities (Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus). This factor also gives the Buckeyes an in-state advantage.

It isn’t likely that UCincinnati ever becomes as ingrained into Ohio culture like the Buckeyes are, and Michigan State, while always little brother, isn’t going to go away any time soon. In-state, Michigan will always be disadvantaged in the Mitten compared to Ohio in the… uh… heart-shaped thing.

Posted under Analysis

After Braylon Edwards stated yesterday in an ESPN chat that Rich Rodriguez had decided to give the #1 jersey to an incoming freshman – who wasn’t a wide receiver (and later clarified on the Mike Tirico Show that it is in fact a defensive back – people are telling me it’s JT Floyd), Michigan fans seemed to be clearly split on the issue.

Jared Kent West Union IA: What are your thoughts on the new MICHIGAN regime.
Braylon Edwards: I am already mad that Rich Rod because he gave the No.1 jersey to someone other than a WR, which is breaking tradition. But I think he is a great coach and will lead Michigan to a turnaround.

It is important to note here that Braylon is throwing his support behind Rodriguez, and it is merely one issue that the two disagree on (no pun intended). Braylon even said on the Tirico show that he planned to call Rodriguez and voice his displeasure/suggestion.

Background on the #1
Who has worn the jersey before? Paul Goebel wore it waaay back in the day (when “wide receivers” didn’t exist – he was a “forward pass receiving end” on offense), and since then, fellow Wolverines Anthony Carter, Derrick Alexander, David Terrell, and Braylon Edwards have followed in Goebel’s footsteps and earned All-American honors.

Until his junior year, Edwards wore the #80 jersey. He believed that, as a very good receiver, he should be able to wear the #1. When Edwards approached Lloyd Carr with this request, he was told that he would have to earn the number. Braylon, who had previously had a reputation as a less-than-stellar effort player and far from a workout warrior, put in the time in the weight room, and became the player that Carr believed he could be. The motivational tactic paid off, and Lloyd gave Braylon the #1 jersey. Stellar junior and senior years showed that he had indeed learned his lesson, and made him into the #3 overall pick in the NFL draft. It is plain to see why the #1 holds a special place in Braylon’s heart.

Upon his graduation, Braylon began to establish what has become a fairly robust charity, known as the Braylon Edwards Foundation. Since Edwards was told by Lloyd he had to earn the right to wear the #1 jersey at Michigan, the number meant something special. As part of the BEF, Edwards endowed a scholarship for the wearer of the #1 jersey at Michigan:

The Scholarship Endowment for the University of Michigan’s No. 1 football jersey was announced in April 2006. The charitable gift provides support to a student/athlete wearing the No. 1 football jersey. The scholarship endowment will recognize future athletes who demonstrate character and commitment both on and off the field. Athletes wearing the No. 1 jersey are selected by U-M’s coaching staff.

When he gave the original endowment, Edwards undoubtedly believed that the tradition of #1 going to a wide receiver would be continued. Rich Rodriguez was either unaware of this, or didn’t care about it.

The #1 should go to whomever asks for it
This camp of fans believes that Michigan should not reserve the #1 jersey for anything special, and that any player who asks for it should receive the uno. Since nobody had to earn the jersey before Braylon, there was no real tradition before him, despite the illustrious gentlemen who preceded him.

Since Rodriguez and his staff are trying to turn around a program that has been slowly slipping from the forefront of American consciousness, they should reserve the right to do whatever they so choose with any number. They will be able to establish their own traditions.

The #1 should be reserved
This bloc wants the #1 to continue being something special, going to any transcendent Michigan receiver. While a defensive back may want the jersey, he should be told that he is out of luck, and to pick a different number. Tradition is one of the aspects that sets college football apart from almost every other sport, and even if one does not exist yet (as those other fans suggest), it should be established.

My Take
I believe, in this particular instance and overall, that the #1 jersey should be reserved for a wide receiver. Braylon has expressed displeasure with granting it to a different position, and what is the benefit of alienating one of the highest-profile Wolverines in the NFL (arguably 2nd behind Tom Brady)? Overall, I think that establishing traditions like reserving #1 for a great wide receiver, or #2 for a great defensive back (which has not been done, but I think should be in honor of Woodson) can only help the program. It can restore some mystique that has perhaps been lost from the Michigan program, and can be used as a major recruiting tool.

This also leads me to the topic of retiring numbers. I think it is appropriate for Michael Jordan’s number to be retired from the Chicago Bulls, and certainly for Jackie Robinson’s #42 to be retired throughout baseball. However, I think that college sports are not served by retiring numbers. Establishing tradition and continuing said traditions (as mentioned above) give personality to schools like Michigan (whose prestige is largely based upon tradition), and can help with recruiting, as players undoubtedly believe they can carry on the tradition (or at least want to try). While the Wistert Brothers did great things at the University of Michigan, it may be disrespectful to prevent anyone from trying to follow in their tradition. And what high-profile running back recruit wouldn’t want to follow in the footsteps of Old 98 (which would be an awesome number for a tailback to have in the modern game).

In the end, I guess I’m a traditionalist (whether that be continuing old ones, starting new ones, or supporting fledgling ones). Leave the #1 to a wide receiver. As someone said to me yesterday, “Keeping and establishing traditions cost nothing. Eliminating them can destroy your program.”

Posted under Analysis, Coaching

Da compleet seriez: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5. Substantive hockey update coming before tonight’s game.

Online:

Yost Ice Arena is Michigan’s hockey hot spot

A Historical Tour of the University of Michigan Campus

Yost Ice Arena

Fifty Years of Cameron Indoor Stadium

NCAASports.com

Brian Schick: Yost still boasts the best fans on campus

Yost’s “’improvements’ aren’t worth it for fans

In print:

Canham, Donald B. From the Inside: A Half Century of Michigan Athletics. Ann Arbor: Olympia Sports Press, 1996.

Hilton, John. “Don Canham’s Empire.” Ann Arbor Observer Sept. 1983: 67-77.

Bacon, John U. Blue Ice: The Story of Michigan Hockey. Ann Arbor: Olympia Sports Press, 2001.

Bacon, John U. “Fielding Yost.” A Legacy of Champions: The Story of the Men Who Built University of Michigan Football. By Joe Falls, et al. Ann Arbor: F. Svedbeck Publishing, 1996. 14-73.

Posted under Analysis, Hockey

The first question comes from RJ, who you may remember from the last edition of Mailbag:

The University has been fairly consistent about being against night games. With Rich Rod as coach might that change?

The University has indeed had a pretty consistent aversion to playing games under the lights. Lloyd Carr’s Wolverines never played a home game with a start later than 4:30, whereas Rich Rodriguez’s Mountaineers played night games regularly. This may give the impression that it was Carr preventing the team from taking the field at 7 or 8 PM. However, I think it was the athletic administration, rather than the football staff, that was preventing this.

AD Bill Martin has stated several reasons for wanting to not play a night game, and the retirement of Lloyd Carr didn’t really change any of them. Some of the reasons include:

• Alumni pressure. A lot of the older alums really want to be able to get in bed by 8, rather than sitting down in the Big House. Luxury boxes and indoor club seating might make night games a little more appealing to elderly fans.
• Curbing all-day drinking. If people wake up at 7 to tailgate for a noon football game, they get very drunk. If they wake up at 7 to tailgate for a football game that is more than 12 hours away, they get very very drunk. This is a public safety issue, and the administration doesn’t really want to get involved with that.
• Wanting to allow Michigan fans to drive home while it is still light out. Afternoon starts don’t really avoid this, and a lot of people live far enough away that they may end up driving in the dark anyway (especially with post-game traffic).
• No permanent lighting in Michigan Stadium. The portable lighting that has to be brought in for later games (which is paid for by the networks, not the school, in case you were interested) is both a hassle and a poor solution that doesn’t adequately light to playing field. With the stadium renovations, there will be footings for lights, but according to Dave Ablauf, still no permanent fixtures. However, the footings will allow for better lighting in the future.

In the first year, there is almost no chance of a night game, especially with the stadium renovations ongoing. However, with an enthusiastic young coach, and ever-increasing money to be made from TV, night games are something that it may be possible to see down the road.

The next question comes from an anonymous commenter who asks:

tim, i apppreciate the work you put into this blog. it is very well done. do you think that msu will keep both of their backs. i have to believe that one of them will bail.

Well, a lot of the players that are currently committed to the Spartans are not that highly regarded. I doubt State would lose Maxwell, Spencer, or Treadwell to a less prestigious program. That leaves the following three prospects:

Edwin Baker RB 5*, 5-11, 200, 4.40
Baker’s recruitment had been pretty quiet until he committed to State. Michigan has offered him, though the offer didn’t come until he was already a Spartan. It does not seem like he is probably going to stick with State, though I would be VERY surprised if he is the #2 running back in the country come February (I’ll even be mildly surprised if he ends up with all 5 of those stars).

Chris Norman LB 4* 6-2, 200, 4.60
Norman had seemed pretty open, and perhaps even leaning towards Michigan. Then State offered, and he committed abruptly. If you had asked this question a while back, I would have said he was a strong candidate for decommitment. However, with each day that passes by, it seems less and less likely that the Spartans lose his pledge.

Larry Caper RB 4* 5-11, 210, 4.41
Caper seems like the most likely of Michigan State’s verbals to leave the recruiting class. He committed to the Spartans before Baker (a more highly-ranked player) did, and though he says all the right things about not being scared off, the dread spectre of sitting on the bench has to be at least somewhat disheartening. However, State did do a god job splitting time between many guys last year (Jevon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick each had more than 220 carries), though they probably should have run it more, i.e. when it could have won them the Champs Sports Bowl. Caper’s favorites prior to his commitment had been Michigan State, Notre Dame, and Michigan, and with Charlie Weis’s cupboard currently bare, he might pursue Caper pretty heavily.

As always, thanks for the questions guys. Keep sending them in and I’ll keep answering to the best of my ability.

Etc.: Texas quarterback GJ Kinne has announced that he will transfer. No word yet on whether this will affect the decision of Sherrod Harris, another ‘Horns backup who was considering a transfer (with Michigan as a potential destination).

Posted under Analysis, Mail Bag, Recruiting

First and foremost, I am glad the Athletic Department has gone back to using yellow student shirts after the (horrible) year of blue in 2005. The yellow looks infinitely better, as documented by the Hoover Street Rag (also an interesting post on other points, and I generally agree with it). However, the new issue I raise is the task of actually getting students to wear them.

The TShirt Option
The first mistake the administration makes in this respect is allowing the purchase of a shirt to be optional with a student ticket purchase. By simply bundling the shirt with the tickets – no option – the department would guarantee that everyone in the student section at least has access to one maize shirt. At the very least the option to buy the shirt on the ticket order form could be checked by default – I would much rather have students accidentally buy the shirt than accidentally not buy it (which I did in both 2004 and 2005 – I didn’t bother buying the terrible blue thing in 2005 after I mistakenly didn’t order it originally).

Maize Outs
Another area in which the athletic department fails is marking a select few student tickets (last year, it was two games) with the “Maize Out” distinction. In the student section, every game should be a maize out. IF the department would like to mark tickets in other sections, by all means go ahead (I don’t know if they currently do, but by the results of past maize outs, I would assume not). Telling students that a couple games will be maize outs gives the impression that other trips to the Big House have no unofficial dress code, when in fact they should.

The Greek Community
Aside from arriving any time after 7:00 in the first quarter, and leaving in the mid-third the Greek Community at Michigan also serves as a detriment to student section glory. I’m not talking about the seemingly endless supply of Mike Hart and Tom Brady (who they hadn’t even heard of before Super Bowl 38) jerseys available at AEPi and Pike fraternity houses, but rather the “Show Your Letters” shirts that are always worn in the fall by Greeks. Most (all?) chapters require their members to wear these shirts on football Saturdays, and they are always blue (or in some cases, pink for sororities). The athletic department should reach out to the Interfraternal Council and the Panhellenic organization to work toward having shirts that accomplish the missions of both the Greeks (advertising) and the AD (uniform yellowness).

Maize Jerseys
Finally, I know it is not a popular idea among many Michigan fans (particularly the traditionalists), but a maize jersey for the football team (for example, during a maize out night game, novl idea, I know) would go a long way toward assisting in a maized out student section with regularity. Those same people who insist on wearing their OMG TOM BRADY jersey to the game would have an OMG SAM MCGUFFIE option that would not hinder the chromatic continuity of the student section.

Posted under Analysis

One of the great allures of the bowl season is being able to see evenly-matched teams duke it out on a neutral site. However, is that perception or reality? Of course, the teams aren’t always evenly matched (see USC v. Illinois), nor is the site ever truly neutral (see USC v. Illinois). Fans of the SEC are always quick to cite their good record in bowl games (and any other stat that perpetuates the OMG SEC AWESOMEZ myth). What they are failing to mention is that the SEC has a de facto home game for many of their games. What other conferences are favored? Let’s take a look.

2008 bowl season winning percentage by conference:

Average Distance from Bowl Site (in miles as the crow flies) tells us, on average, how far each conference team had to travel to get to their game. However, this doesn’t tell us the whole story. If two teams are both very far from the bowl in which they will be playing, there is no real home field advantage ceded for either one. To give a better idea of home-field advantage, it would be better to look at how much location may favor one team over the other. Delta distance measures how much closer to bowl site a team is over their opponent. The conference numbers are sums of all of these (in miles as the crow flies). As you can see, the PAC-10 and SEC are heavily favored by this, as is the Mountain West conference. Perhaps not coincidentally, these have the highest win percentages of any conference. Of note is the fact that every single SEC team had a positive Delta distance. That is, they were all closer to their bowl site than the opponent.

Of course, the sample sizes are very small, so it is hard to draw any definite conclusions, but it is apparent that some conferences are favored rather heavily by the locations of their bowls. If anyone would like this data to work with the numbers a bit more, drop your contact information in the comments.

Posted under Analysis

In Scott Shafer’s presumably blitz-happy defensive scheme, Brandon Harrison will probably remain at designated-blitzer-defensive-back-guy. The starting safeties will be the biggest item of interest. Stevie Brown will probably be free (and will be better than he looked against App State, I promise), but will Charles Stewart be strong, or can a younger guy step up? I also wonder if Michael Williams has finally worked out all of his health issues.

Looking at this depth chart, it’s somewhat surprising to see how big a DB class came in last year (and how few of them redshirted).

Posted under Analysis, Personnel, Spring Coverage

I’m of the opinion that, with the lack of speed defensive ends, you may see a player like Marrell Evans, who was a defensive end/designated rusher in high school, move down to the DL. The true freshmen won’t be here until fall, so we won’t know if one of them makes a similar transition (i.e. Marcus Witherspoon). Other things include the starting LB unit. Where does Obi Ezeh start, and how does this affect who the other starting LB will be?

There is a lot of depth at the SAM position, even before the freshmen come in. Because of this, most LBs will probably learn multiple positions.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel, Spring Coverage

Spring will be a good time to tell us a couple of important facts about the defensive front. First, is Jason Kates going to stay with the team? Conflicting reports have stated that he has quit, while other assert he is still with the team. If he doesn’t participate in spring practice, we can assume he is gone. Also, a few positions will be ironed out. Adam Patterson, Ryan VanBergen, and Greg Banks haven’t been established at one particular position, and we’ll be able to get a better idea where the S&C has taken their bodies.

In terms of performance, I really want to know if there is any quality depth behind the starters, especially helpful to see who can step up as starters when three members of the D-line leave after 2008. Mike Martin and a top-notch freshman defensive end will not be around for the spring. Unfortunately, the defensive end will not be around for the fall either.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel, Spring Coverage

The offensive line will be the area of least knowledge going into the spring for those not affiliated with the program. A new skill set will likely be required of Rich Rodriguez’s offensive linemen than was of Lloyd Carr’s. The existing players with the best fit will play under Rodriguez. Not-yet-existing for this spring are incoming freshmen Dann O’Neill, Rocko Khoury, Kurt Wermers, Ricky Barnum, Elliott Mealer, and Patrick Omameh. At the guard positions, it looks like at least one of them will have to play for depth this season.

While I think it would be good for Steve Schilling to move inside (both for his skill set and depth along the interior), I have heard he is being kept at tackle for now. Ortmann will likely man the left tackle spot, and Boren is a lock at one of the guard positions, barring injury. David Moosman and Molk will battle with Tim McAvoy for the remaining two spots. I have given the nod to those that I think are more likely to win the battles.

After spring, there will be a lot more clarity as to where certain guys will fit. Of note: Nobody on this depth chart will lose their eligibility following this season.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel, Spring Coverage