Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on Florida Gulf Coast University tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game is not on television, but can be seen on BigTenNetwork.com

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison  (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!

So, uh, yeah. Florida Gulf Coast isn’t exactly what you’d call a “great team.” The only areas in which they have an advantage over Michigan are those you’d expect: Rebounding and Michigan getting to the line. With a perimeter-oriented zone-defense team, Michigan can give that up.Pomeroy predicts an 82-54 win for Michigan.

Michigan’s effective field goal percentage is strongly correlated with their offensive efficiency, and FGCU’s ability to restrict opponents’ eFG% is correlated with their defensive efficiency. Considering Michigan was one ranking away from having an advantage of 100 places over FGCU, I’d say it looks to be a good offensive day for Michigan. Without needing to get to the rack to score, I doubt Michigan will spend much of the day driving the lane. Florida Gulf Coast’s offense doesn’t appear to rely on hanging onto the ball, and that’s a good thing for them: they’re terrible at doing so. Look for Michigan to exploit FGCU turnovers, hopefully leading to a lot of fast breaks.

Finally, and most importantly, Reed Baker returns to Crisler Arena. The Rainmaker is second on the team in minutes played, shooting 41.2 eFG% from the floor, and has nailed 84.8% of his free throws. Guard Delvin Franklin and Wing Derrick O’Neil are the stars for FGCU, and Rainmaker plays a key supporting role.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

On Saturday at 6, Michigan will return to the hardcourt, this time taking on the Golden Grizzlies of Oakland at the Palace of Auburn Hills. How do the teams match up? Let’s take a look at the tempo-free analysis and Pomeroy Ratings (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!

Things look to be pretty slanted in Michigan’s favor, and Pomeroy’s prediction agrees: he sees Michigan winning 79-64 in a 62-possession game. According to Ken, the Wolverines have a 92% chance of winning.

One thing to look for in this game: Oakland’s defensive efficiency is correlated with how well opponents shoot the ball, and Michigan’s offensive efficiency is strongly correlated with how well they shoot the ball. Looking at the chart above, Michigan looks to have a good shooting night against the Grizzlies – which can help lead them to victory.

Oakland’s key players are point guards Johnathon Jones and Eric Kangas, along with big man (6-11) Keith Benson. Jones almost never comes off the court (2nd nationally in minutes played), and he and Kangas account for much of the team’s offense – including Jones leading the squad in assists. Benson has gone to the stripe 48 times this year (perhaps because he is only making 62.5% of free throws), and is shooting .575 from the field.

One other thing to keep in mind: the Oakland game will also be the debut of one Laval Lucas-Perry in a Michigan uniform. It should be interesting to see how LLP affects the overall chemistry and production of the team. One thing is for sure: It will be nice to have another solid combo guard to fill in at the 1 & 2 spots, decreasing the minutes that are occupied by former walk-ons.

Go Blue!

Posted under Analysis, Basketball, Other Sports

The game in text messages…

Tim: oh fuck
Paul: we can spot the rockets 7… right?
Tim: if we cant… kill me.
Paul: after this drive, ill decide whether to prep the CN^4
Paul: is warren dinged up? and finally the minor seam works
Tim: hes been near hurt most of the season
Paul: also… michigan fans really, really, really, really suck
Tim: they are sub sufficient
Paul: ive caled one a dumbass and argued with about 3 more
Paul: im going to get in a fight with someobne. its inevitabl. why wouldn’t you run on 2nd and 20 with 10 secs left?
Paul: so you try a bomb with a qb who has already thrown one pick6 and tried to throw another?
Tim: toe fuckledo
Paul: ruck the fockets!
Paul: and we got rick roll’d
Tim: obvs. kill me now
Paul: is it better than the m offense has scored all 17 points this game?
Tim: better, yet simultaneously much, much worse. i think.
Paul: they’ve only scored 3 on the michigan defense
Tim: they are also toledo. im just sayin
Paul: omg! first down! fire shaffer!
Nate: it is sad. for the world
Tim: remember how sheridan is terrible? shit…
Paul: sheridamnit?
Tim: pretty much
Paul: CONER!!!
Tim: put in the competent qb plz
Paul: i wouldn’t mind seeing threet, odoms, mathews, warren, and/or graham
Paul:this seems eerily similar to appy. except both teams are much worse
Tim: remember how sheridan suxzzz? me2.
Paul: hes like pat white with a much worse arm/less running ability/no melanin and better hair
Tim: way better hair. unfortunately, hair != skill
Paul: id take opelt :(
Paul: mind lasers. please. we need an inexplicable mistake on their part
Tim: tom hammond save us all
Paul: all hail hammond! & zoltan…
Paul: mmb should learn yakety sax
Tim: no but we’re srsly going to lose to fuckin toledo
Paul: ast time you said that we lost to appy! jinxer!
Paul: i think this proves sheridan to clemons is not effective
Tim: sheridan to X is generally terrible. mostly on account of the sheridan factor
Paul: bye bye motor city bowl
Tim: i might puke
Paul: can we pretend toledo is in CUSA or something?
Tim: beat the fucking nittany lions
Tim: maybe we can win the tears of infinite sadness award this week.

Posted under Analysis

When I previewed Toledo in the summer, it appeared as though they may be one of the very few easy games for Michigan in 2008. The Rockets have gone 1-4 so far, with the lone victory coming against the moribund Eagles of Eastern Michigan. We spoke to Jason Mack of the Independent Collegian to give us the latest on the Rockets, and it doesn’t really look like Toledo should be too great a challenge for Michigan. However, if Michigan has shown one thing this year, it’s that there are no sure things for the 2008 Wolverines.

Offense
The Rockets are 66th in the nation in scoring offense, despite putting up 41 on Eastern Michigan in 54 on Fresno State (in 2 overtimes). They were blanked against Ball State (a fringe top-25 team, but one known for its offense, not stellar D), and put up 16 points in games against Arizona and a 3-score loss(!) to Florida International(!!). Aaron Opelt is the Rockets’ starter, passing for 869 yards so far on 166 attempts (5.23 ypa). Most of his passes have gone to junior Stephen Williams and senior Nick Moore. On the ground, DaJuane Collins and Morgan Williams have gotten the lion’s share of carries. Collins appears to be infinitely better than Williams, averaging 7.42 ypc on far fewer carries than those on which Williams is netting 4.11 ypc. Collins missed the FIU game and was limited against Ball State.

In short, the Rockets aren’t exceptional on offense. They run a pass-oriented scheme with lots of spread formations. Regardless, they haven’t spread the ball around much, and haven’t put up tons of points on anyone. Michigan will be by far the best defense they have faced this year. However, they run a lot of quick passes which may neutralize the Wolverines’ advantage in the trenches.

Defense
Toledo is 89th in rush defense and 109th in pass efficiency defense. This is bad. Considering the competition they’ve played, which includes such offensive juggernauts as Eastern Michigan (to whom they gave up about 130 yards passing and rushing, which is below their season average), and Florida International (to whom they gave up 98 yards passing (40 yards below FIU’s season average) and 141 yards rushing (55 yards more than FIU’s season average) – and still managed to give up 35 points). So, the defense isn’t great. Or good. Or passable.

Michigan’s run game should have another opportunity to get itself moving. We’ll see if that actually happens. If it doesn’t, predict pain for the rest of the year.

Predictions
Michigan gains more fumbles than it gives away(!).
The Wolverines have 3 rushers go over 50 yards.
Michigan wins, 34-9.

Posted under Analysis

Round 2.

The Situation
Illinois leads Michigan, 31-20 with about 9 minutes left in the game. After starting strong, the Michigan offense has sputtered, but finally got back on the board on its last drive. In spite of a questionable pass interference call on John Thompson, Michigan has Illinois in a 3rd-and-2 situation on their own 49 yard line. A stop here could help continue Wolverine momentum, and give the Wolverines a chance to get back into the game.

The Personnel and Formation

Illinois comes out in a 3-wide spread set, with a tight end on the right side of the line. Two wideouts are to the left. Isiah Williams is in the shotgun, with Daniel Dufrene lined up as the running back to his left. Michigan’s base 3-4 has a linebacker (John Thompson) on the line to the slot receiver side. Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are centered over the line, which consists of the standard starters (Graham, Taylor, Johnson, and Jamison). The secondary is composed of Brandon Harrison, Stevie Brown, Donovan Warren, and Morgan Trent.

The Play

Juice Williams runs a quarterback draw, running right into the heart of Michigan’s strong defensive line. This should be a stop by Michigan, but Williams manages to scamper 50 yards down the field, before he is run down from behind by Stevie Brown at the 1 yard line. Michigan’s defensive play is a blitz of the weakside of the formation by Thompson, with the line clogging things up and the other two linebackers playing the run. The secondary mans up on the receivers.

Why it Worked
Brandon Graham and Jonas Mouton seem to both be to blame for Juice getting loose (damnit, I was going to avoid saying that). Michigan’s defensive play seems to be for the defensive line to plug up the middle, with the linebackers freed up to make plays near the line of scrimmage. Graham gets greedy, however, and gives up his inside position when it appears that Juice will try to go around the edge. This frees up a gap for Williams to head through. Mouton should be there, but he was also fooled by Juice, and has rushed to the outside to play contain. However, it appears as though his responsibility was not contain, as Brandon Harrison has filled the same gap. Mouton and Graham were both supposed to be in position to stop Juice here, and considering that neither was, it’s easy to see why he got free.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis, Video

The Situation
Michigan leads Illinois 14-10 with about 11 minutes remaining in the second quarter. The Illini have the ball in a 2nd-and-10 situation on their own 43 yard line. Michigan’s offense has been clicking early in the game, and a big stop on Illinois’s potential go-ahead drive would sustain the Wolverine momentum, and possibly springboard another Michigan scoring drive.

The Personnel and Formation

Illinois comes out in a 3-wide spread set, with a tight end on the right side of the line. Two wideouts are to the left. Isiah Williams is in the shotgun, with Daniel Dufrene lined up as the running back to his left. Michigan is running out of its 3-4 Okie nickel package. The corners are playing off, and Charles Stewart is the high safety along with Brandon Harrison. Stevie Brown, Jonas Mouton, Obi Ezeh, and John Thompson are the linebackers. Mike Martin is the pass-rushing DT.

The Play

Michigan is in a cover-3, with both OLBs blitzing. At the snap, John Thompson blitzes, allowing Daniel Dufrene to run right by him. This is unfortunate for Thompson and the Michigan defense at large, as this play is a designed screen (not quite a swing pass, as The Davids – ESPN’s shittiest new announce team – state). Williams lofts the ball over Thompson’s head, and Dufrene makes the catch. He follows his screen blockers, breaks a couple early tackle attempts, and outruns the Wolverines to the endzone.

Why it Worked
John Thompson is the major culpable party in Illinois’s success on this play. In Shafer’s scheme, he is designated to blitz on this play, but has the responsibility to “hug up” on Dufrene if he leaks out of the backfield. It is plain to see Thompson realizes his mistake, as he has an “oh shit” moment, and turns around when he realizes Dufrene has passed him.

This was an effective play call against a blitz, and of course the responsibilities of the blitzers are supposed to compensate for this. Thompson’s fuckup amplified the effectiveness of the playcall.

It’s hard to fault him too much, since he was making sure there weren’t huge cutback lanes in the secondary, but Donovan Warren starts off this play taking a terrible angle. He almost manages to still catch up with Dufrene, and had he taken a better angle, might have stopped this 5-10 yards short of the endzone.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis, Video

Massey of Buckeye Commentary drops by to give his weekly look at Michigan’s game.

Illinois v. Michigan Review

Let me be honest, it is getting very difficult to parse the seldom-traveled road of Michigan this season. I do not know what to say. One moment reveals a nice scramble on third and eight; the next is an inconceivable fumble. I cannot tell if they want to pass or run (I know coaches would say “balanced”), and I don’t know at which they are more proficient. The problems occur on both sides of the ball and they can border on comedy. I am not trying to be incendiary, but I know that at least half of you have chuckled in frustration whenever Michigan fumbles in the most unexpected situations. You are fans. You watch every play with same emotion I do Ohio State and you do not need me to recite their successes and follies. We can all agree that they are inconsistent and leave it at that.

I will continue to mention that actual play on the field, of course, but I may shift my focus to watching the intangibles of the team.

What I saw: I think for the first time this season, I saw a result that would have been similar even if Carr was still coaching the Wolverines and the previous systems and schemes were in place. Michigan just could not stop Juice and co. I could nitpick and mention the bad calls that hurt Michigan, but this was simply the case of the better team winning.

The Wolverines played well initially and the first quarter felt like they had picked up right where they left off against Wisconsin. Odoms was great on returns (despite the late fumble) and his first-half receiving stats were impressive with big gains on the two early scoring drives.

For all intents and purposes, the game ended after Illinois scored on the screen to Dufrene. A perfectly lofted dagger, it seemed to pierce the offense’s hearts as much, or more, than the defense’s. The offensive line seemed to play well early on and the announcers were all over them, but that edge slowly dissipated during the second quarter and the offense eventually became impotent.

The defense generally played well but the tackling would be poor from time to time and Illinois always seemed to capitalize on those missed tackles. The Wolverines best defender was Mesko. His punting consistently pinned the Illini deep. He was Michigan’s player of the game. Seriously.

What I didn’t see: The fourth quarter. I apologize. I know I am supposed to watch the entire game for this weekly exchange but FSU/Miami was really heating up and my football-laden DNA required me to change the channel as watching it via Gamecast was wholly insufficient.

In some ways, what I saw was what I did not see. I did not often see good tackling, pass coverages living up to realistic expectations, or an ability to hold onto the ball. It that thing covered in lard?

What I expect to see next week: Ball State blanked Toledo last weekend and the Rockets appear to have no offense, gaining 157 yards against the Cardinals (somehow they managed 600 yards and 54 points against Fresno State, but that was in overtime). I expect a Michigan win along the lines of the victory over Miami (OH).

I do not expect to be able to draw many conclusions from that game, however, as I am totally incapable of predicting Michigan’s performance game-to-game, half-to-half, or even play-to-play with any degree of accuracy.

What this can tell us about The Game: Most likely, Ohio State will be running a very similar offense to the one Illinois dominated with on Saturday. Will Pryor, Wells, and [insert Ohio State WR] be able to replicate those results? Illinois scored on big plays caused by blown assignments and missed tackles with a sprinkling of bad officiating. If those things magically disappear, the Wolverine defense is formidable.

If Michigan’s offense can perform as they did in the first quarter versus Illinois for the entire game against Ohio State, there is no reason to believe they will not be able to move the ball. We have talked about it before, but the Buckeyes have struggled against running quarterbacks. Threet may be shaky but his best moments are good enough.

I still maintain that this is a dangerous game for Ohio State, especially if the Buckeyes are lucky enough to be playing for a Big Ten Championship. Michigan will have the opportunity to ruin the Buckeyes season and set the tone for Rodriguez’s tenure. They will have to play their best game to win. Would any of you be surprised if Michigan put together their best effort on November 22?

Posted under Analysis

Hosted by The Only Game that Matters.

1) Jay Paterno and the Spread HD

What is: maybe JayPa isn’t that bad after all, and Anthony Morelli is just clinically retarded? Obviously, he knows how to craft a functioning offense of some sort. Maybe it was Morelli, not Jay holding the team back in 2006 and 2007.

2) Joe Tiller’s Mustache

What is: the inspiration for Danny Hope’s Mustache?

3) The Color Purple

Please see this video, 15 seconds in:

4) Brains

What is: Joe Paterno’s entire diet? Oh, and Ovaltine. Brains and Ovaltine, yummy.

5) Hawkeye State

Is this supposed to be some sort of reference to Iowa? Hey, I answered in the form of a question and I didn’t even mean to! Either way, both teams in the state of Iowa kinda suck.

6) Rudy

Who is: Shitty midget?

7) Knee Ligaments

What is: the least functional portion of Sean Lee’s body?
(Note: I said least functional, not least used. Interpret that as you will).

8) Terrell Pryor

Why am: I fucking terrified of Ohio State?

9) Mark May

Who is: someone who only appears intelligent because he is alongside Lou Holtz.

10) Rich Rodriguez

Who is: going to terrorize the big Ten within a few years (I hope)?

Posted under Analysis

There were problems with fumbling again, but the first one was by Brandon Minor, which can be chalked up to his being Brandon Minor, one came from a freshman (Michael Shaw) coming off injury, and the rest came late in the game when players were trying too hard to make something happen. After the last few weeks, maybe this is disturbing because the fumbles are continuing to happen, but this time, they didn’t really decide the game (as they did against Notre Dame, and could have last week against the Badgers).

The defense was not very good. Unless they step up their play, Daryll Clark is going to have a field day in a couple of weeks. Fortunately, I think some of the real problems are correctable:

• Tackling. This hasn’t been an issue so far this year, so hopefully the poor physicality and tackling effort this week was more of an anomaly than anything.
• Charles Stewart. Man, if you’re going to play the ball instead of the man when you’re the only guy between him and the endzone, you’ve got to leave your feet to prevent him from making the catch. Running past a guy while waving your arms and getting almost there isn’t going to cut it.
• Disciplined play. On Juice’s long near-touchdown run, Brandon Graham, Jonas Mouton, and Brandon Harrison all took the outside (contain) assignment. At least one guy (Graham) and probably a second (Mouton) was supposed to be plugging the inside. This was, at least hopefully, a case of players getting frustrated, and trying to do too much to make a play. They will definitely get chewed out by Shafer, and hopefully not be in a position where they have to force plays late in the game again.
• Pressure and contain. The defense could usually get one, but at the expense of the other. I’d bet a small part of this is being tired from the emotional win last week.
• Stevie Brown. He didn’t do anything egregiously wrong this week, but I wouldn’t be a Michigan fan if I wasn’t bitching about him, now would I?

Steve Threet was his typical hot-and-cold self. I think when he’s in rhythm, he’s very good. However, if he isn’t in rhythm, the results can be ugly. If he gets knocked out of rhythm during the game, as we saw against the Illini, it is very hard for him to snap back into form. Part of this is his youth. Part of it is the offensive line putting him in a difficult situation or two.

Martavious Odoms continues to have some struggles running precise routes, or at the very least getting on the same page as Threet. Chalk this up to inexperience. Once he’s been in this offense a year or so, Odoms should be a super-entertaining player to watch.

Just like the past few weeks, this game showed why this team is going to be exciting to watch in the near future, but frustrating to watch right now.

Posted under Analysis

As Paul did last week, I’ll post our text message log, to capture the essence of our thoughts during the game. For the record, Paul was at the game, and I was watching on TV.

Tim to Paul 5:06 pm: be louder
Paul to Tim 6:21 pm: opposite of wisconsin game?
Tim to Paul: yeah so we kind of suck. the fans have been quiet as shit all second half, btw
Paul to Tim: theyre leaving and we need a big play to get the crowd into it
Tim to Paul: theres a td at least… maybe
Paul to Tim: eventually. fingers crossed
Paul to Tim: does gingell wear 84 now?
Tim to Paul: no kidding. kc has been bad to terrible all day. hes been bailed out by the earlier blocked pat still going in
Paul to Tim: is it just kc? snap? hold? line?
Tim to Paul: i didn’t see anything bad w/ them
Paul to Tim 6:41 pm: :(
Tim to Paul: no joke
Paul to Tim: NOW we knock out juice…
Paul to Tim 6:50 pm: i guess before wisco i said id be happy with 1 of 2
Tim to Paul: truth. beat the rockets
Tim to Paul 7:05 pm: yay, lets get threet hurt
Paul to Tim: ehh… the players didnt quit last week. i feel he had to.

More substantive postgame post coming up in a little bit.

Posted under Analysis