//

Search

Support Varsity Blue

Watch Live Games of the NCAA® Championship Online 100% Free

Michigan Blogs

Big Ten Bloggers

Meta

Preview: Illinois Fighting Illini
Posted by Tim on October 3, 2008

When I previewed Illinois in the summer, I said that the Illini would take fairly significant steps back on each side of the ball. With Rashard Mendenhall not longer carrying the rock, Juice Williams’s questionable arm would be thrust into the forefront, and J Leman would no longer be the American Hero of the defense. With no Illinois representative available for a podcast interview ([STUDENT PUBLICATION REDACTED] is the only one to deny such a request so far), we haven’t been able to get much more updated information on the boys from Champaign than from watching their games ourselves, and from what can be gleaned from the internets.

Illinois currently sits at 2-2, and ironically the Illini have looked more impressive in their losses than their wins. The losses have been competitive battles against a pair of top-10 teams in Missouri and Penn State, while the losses have been against 1-AA Eastern Illinois, where they gave up 21 points, and Louisiana-Lafayette, which came in a 20-17 squeaker. This game is important to Illinois to notch their first Big Ten win and avoid starting conference play in a huge hole.
Offense

With the departure of Rashard Mendenhall and continuing emergence of Arrelious Be
nn, most predicted prior to the season that Juice Williams would now be the featured cog in Illinois’ offense. Through 4 games last year, he had attempted 79 passes, and this year, he has thrown 116, so yeah. However, 42 of those attempts came in a comeback attempt against Missouri, a game he missed the end of in 2007 with injury. Regardless, the difference is certainly significant. Juice has also been rushing a lot more this year, with 64 attempts through 4 games, compared to 38 in ’07. Daniel Dufrene is the starting tailback, but he hasn’t been particularly impressive so far, and Juice has been handling the majority of the offense. Illinois’ rushing offense has been clicking, and the passing offense is passable. However, quality of competition always comes into play when comparing absolute statistics. The Illini have faced a Missouri team that is all-offense (and has since given up 362 yards to Nevada – presumably after some early season improvem
ents), a pair of tomato cans, and one legit defense in Penn State. It appears as though Rashard Mendenhall was indeed the key to the Illinois offense last year.
How does it all apply directly to this game? Michigan is good at stopping the run, if the Wisconsin game is any indication, but bad if Utah and Notre Dame are your evidence. This blog is a firm believer in a “what have you done for me lately” mentality, and will assume that the Michigan DL has snapped out of its early season funk. However, The Illini won’t line up and run straight at Michigan, opting instead to frequently line up in the shotgun and employ the option. Expect to see some of Michigan’s more athletic linebackers, like Jonas Mouton, Artis Chambers, and Marell Evans, play a prominent role this week as Michigan tries to force Juice to pass. Through the air, Illinois won’t be world-beaters, but Arrelious Benn will certai
nly make a spectacular play or two, especially with master-except-in-every-way-not-a-master of geometry Stevie Brown ready to take a horrible angle from time to time (to his credit, he played very well against Wisconsin), and a couple of suboptimal, but passable tacklers from the corner spots.
Defense
Going into their game against Penn State, Black Shoe Diaries noted that the Illini were a moribund 88th in rush defense, despite facing a couple of gimme games (one of which, against Louisiana-Lafayette, turned out to be not such a gimme), and a Missouri team that does most of its damage through the air. Were they able to turn things around against PSU? Not so much. Penn State picked up 241 yards and 2 TDs keeping the ball on the ground, the best performance against Illinois to date on the year. Brit Miller may be a decent player, but American Hero he ain’t. Michigan is a team whose offensive line has been good in pass protection, but has had trouble blocking for the run. Facing a bad run defense is a pretty good cure for that (see: Michigan v. Notre Dame. Michigan gained 159 yards on the ground despite playing from a huge deficit the entire game). Expect Michigan to have some success on the ground against the Illini. In the passing game, Illinois is doing pretty well on the strength of cornerback Vontae Davis. The junior doesn’t quite shut down his side of the field, but he isn’t far off from it. However, it is also important to note that Chase Daniel and Darryl Clark, both operating spread offenses, threw for 323 and 181 yards against the Illini, respectively. If Michigan’s execution problems can be hammered out a bit, there should be plays available through the air. Overall on defense, however, expect a few changes. The Illini coaches are not pleased with the players thus far in the season, so it’s likely that an athletic linebacker like Martez Wilson may see the bench because he can’t bring himself to play disciplined ball. No matter who starts, the Wolverines will either face guys who have been backups thus far this season, or players who the coaches flatly criticized for not being in position.
Special Teams
Arrelious Benn hasn’t made any spectacular plays in the kicking game yet this year, but you have to think that’s a ticking time bomb waiting to happen, rather than any regression by him. The kicking games have been what you’d expect from a BCS conference team, though Derrick Williams was able to take one to the house against the Illini Saturday night. Michigan fans are to the point where not fumbling gets marked up in the “win” column, so a surprisingly good return game may be in order.
Predictions
Michigan doesn’t have any rusher crack 100 yards, but at least two gain more than 50.
Juice Williams will end the day with one good positive run, but will be sacked at least twice, and gain less than 42 net yards on the ground – thus far his season-low
Michigan beats the Illini, 31-28.

Posted under Analysis

3 Comments »

Tags: , ,

Inside the Play: Wisconsin
Posted by Tim on October 2, 2008

The Situation
There are 2 minutes and 28 seconds left in the third quarter, and Michigan’s offense is like, kinda sucking. And by “kinda sucking” I mean “had 31 yards in the entire game prior to this drive.” However, with 54 yards already racked up in this one drive, a touchdown would be the perfect thing to break the offensive funk. It would also put Michigan down by only 12 points, despite Wisconsin dominating most of the first three quarters. They might just be able to get back into the game…

The Personnel and Formation
Michigan is on the right hash in a basic spread set. Brandon Minor is the running back to Steven Threet’s left. Greg Mathews and Junior Hemingway are the wideouts to the left and right, respectively. In the left slot is Martavious Odoms. At slot on the right side is tight end Kevin Koger, appearing in a game for the first time this year. Wisconsin counters with a 3-2-6 dime package. The four CB/Nickel players are head up over the receivers. The linebackers are head up over Threet and Minor. The two safeties are deep.

The PlayAt the snap, Threet takes a 3-step drop. Minor sets as though he’s pass blocking, though Wisconsin only comes on a three-man rush. Free of the duty of protecting Threet, Minor runs a short circle route out of the backfield. Odoms runs a 10-yard stop route. The other three receivers all run vertical routes, with Mathews and Hemingway on fly routes down the sideline, and Koger running a seam down the middle. 

Wisconsin rushes the three linemen, runs man coverage on the receivers (and backs, including a spy on Threet), and has two safeties taking deep halves over the top. Threet goes deep to Koger, who is behind his defender. Koger makes the catch at the 6, and isn’t hit by a safety until after he’s in the endzone. 

Why it Worked
First things first, if your receivers are able to get open against man coverage, this is an effective play call against 2-man-under defense. Considering Wisconsin had a nickel corner lined up in press coverage against a TE, Koger should be able to get open, the question is whether he’ll be able to maintain that separation. With his athleticism, Koger is able to defeat the defender down the field. 

The wideouts on the outside are able to force the safeties to stay wide, so they aren’t leaving their corners on an island (which they don’t want to do in 2-man-under coverage – their duty is to defend anything over the top). That horizontal stretch allows Koger to catch the ball in the middle of the field in the seam between the deep men. Allow me to point out here that this is the point of Michigan’s “look over to the sideline” no-huddle offense. The coaches in the booth saw two safeties high, and knew that a deep seam route would likely be effective. They told the coaches down on the field, who then relayed the read to Threet. One must assume that as he gets more comfortable with the offense (probably not until future years), Steve will be able to make these reads himself.
The protection on this play was also good. Michigan’s dynamic offense forces the defense to account for every player, including the quarterback (though keep in mind that Michigan’s offense had been anything but stellar at this point in the game). Because of that, Wisconsin had to rush only three men in order to man up on everyone and keep two safeties high. Michigan’s offensive line, for all their difficulty run-blocking, has actually performed fairly well in protection so far this year, and the five blockers (which would have been four with Minor if the LB had blitzed) were easily able to corral the pass rush. Threet had enough time in the pocket to let Koger go deep, and the timing was perfect.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching

3 Comments »

Tags: , , , , ,

Big Ten Bloggers Roundtable: Week 5
Posted by Tim on October 2, 2008

Roundtable hosted over at Our Honor Defend.

01. We’re all basically in conference play now, sans Purdue who played visitor to Notre Dame over the weekend. What did you see in the conference opener that you liked? What did you see that sucked noodles? If you’re one of the Purdue blogs, what did you see against Notre Dame that has you nervous (or even optimistic) for your conference opener against Penn State this Saturday? Oh, and, have fun with that game, by the way.

I saw the defense play well throughout, and Michigan make a huge comeback in the second half, both of which were good. However, with every comeback, there is a team digging itself in a hole, and boy howdy did Michigan ever do that against the Badgers. 31 yards of total offense and 5 turnovers tell the tale before the comeback began. Of course, this goes to show that the spread can run both hot and cold, and oftentimes both in one game. Considering Wisconsin likely had the best defense that Michigan will see until heading to Columbus, hopefully the “cold” moments can be minimized (my tip: turn the ball over less frequently).

02. Ole Miss punked #4 Florida in Gainesville. #1 USC got punked by Oregon State on national television? What’s the underlying theme behind these bizarre upsets? You guessed it: magic. Some kind of hocus-y pocus-y sorcery in the form of “familiarity”. The idea being pitched around is that these upsets come in conference games because the underdog has played the heavily favored team before, and thus isn’t afraid of them nor surprised by anything they do. Should I buy this idea? Or are these upsets more likely the combination of something more conventional, like great/horrendous gameplanning, preparation and execution by the underdog/favorite team respectively?

I think the conference foe aspect has little to do with it. More likely, the USC and Florida players saw who the week’s upcoming opponent was, and decided that Oregon State and Ole Miss, respectively, weren’t worthy of their best effort. Coaches may also save some of the gameplan for better opponents, though they are more likely to understand that everything starts with a conference championship, and will do what is necessary to win. So pretty much what I’m trying to say is I think that’s a dumb idea.

03. Entering the season, Beanie was the Big Ten’s Heisman favorite. After a few games, Javon Ringer had put up the Heisman stats, though I don’t think anyone could’ve believed that Ringer would have the hype machine necessary to get him to New York. Yet, after this week, I see his name mentioned more and more in the Heisman race. Do you think Ringer, at this pace, gets to New York on something more than a courtesy visit (on courtesy visit, see: everyone last year not named Tim Tebow; everyone in 2006 not named Troy Smith)? How about Daryll Clark? Is Daryll Clark of Penn State legitimately in the Heisman race after week 5?

Ringer will not be able to get the same number of carries or amount of yardage against Big Ten defenses that he did against lesser opponents (I’m including you, Indiana). Likewise, the Spartans will be far more likely to play from behind against good teams than they were against Florida Atlantic, for example. Hoyer will have to throw the ball more often (leading directly to EPIC FAIL), and Ringer will be less prominent in the gameplan.
Aside from that, Ringer’s main credit to his name is yardage, and that comes primarily on the strength of having millions of carries. He has 187 so far this year (a whopping 41 more than the next closest guy). His yards per carry average isn’t all that impressive, at 4.80 (Donald Brown of Connecticut, the guy with 146 carries, is up around 6.2 ypc), and is only going to go down. Keep in mind it’s also propped up by a bunch of really long runs against FAU, and a 63-yarder against a Notre Dame team that was playing risky to try to get back into the game. He also gets tons of touches, with 40 plays (including incomplete passes) in the Cal game, 36 against Eastern Michigan, 45 against Florida Atlantic, 41 against the Irish, and 47(!) against Indiana. He’s going to get worn out or hurt unless Dantonio gives him a little less responsibility (and whether he gets worn out or used less, either will take a toll on his Heisman candidacy).
The strength of schedule on Ringer’s current run to glory is pitiful, by the way, and any national columnist seriously mentioning him as a Heisman candidate is a little premature, if not completely idiotic.

04. With the nonconference schedule basically over, do you think the Big Ten collectively bettered its standing from the maligned position it was in before the season began? For every Wisconsin victory over Fresno State and Penn State thrashing of Oregon State, there’s Michigan’s turnover bonanza against the Irish and Ohio State’s neutering by USC. Long question short, what sticks out more: the positives or the negatives for the conference?

I think the net change is essentially zero for people who know anything, and a pretty major negative for people who just listen to the talking heads on ESPN saying “OMG BIG TEN TEH SUX.” Sure, Ohio State laid an egg against USC, and both Michigan and Purdue managed to lose to Notre Dame in equally embarrassing ways. However, Penn State crushed everyone in their way by ridiculous margins, Wisconsin beat a ranked team on the road, and both Northwestern and Minnesota (neither went bowling last year, Minnesota only managed to win one game) swept their conference play. 

05. As I’m sure you may have seen on your moving pictures box, the Ernie Davis movie has been getting a lot of publicity for its imminent release to theatres. The story, of course, centers around the first African-American Heisman winner and some of the trials that come from being a black athlete, playing before the Civil Rights movement and playing in the Cotton Bowl. Does your football program have an uplifting story that you think is movie-worthy? If so, please share it.

There are tons of stories about Michigan’s football programs that could be told, and even some that already have. Without doing any research at all, here are the first few that came to mind:
  • The point-a-minute teams of Fielding Yost that dominated football’s early years.
  • Tom Harmon: Heisman winner, war hero, acting family patriarch.
  • The Ten-Year War between Bo and Woody (hell, there could be a story just about Bo’s first year in Ann Arbor).
  • The 2006 Redemption of Lloyd Carr (complete with Rocky/Friday Night Lights ending!).
…and so on.

Posted under Analysis

Comments Off on Big Ten Bloggers Roundtable: Week 5

Tags:

Across the Border: Wisconsin
Posted by Tim on October 1, 2008

Massey from Buckeye Commentary offers his take on Michigan’s win over Wisconsin. And hey! He actually watched the game this week.

What I saw…

Wow. I will tell you what I saw – an entirely different team appearing from the locker room after halftime. Let’s focus on the action after halftime. No need to dwell on that first half.

That was an impressive turn around considering their performance for the previous 6 quarters. They never quit and even stepped up their play. The team obviously believes in Rodriguez and continues to play hard for him. I am not sure what a galvanizing win is supposed to look like, but a new Wolverine team has showed up in the second stanza. At the very least, the players have to feel good about their performance and believe that execution will lead to more victories. I think this win is more important to the program at large than this particular season.

I also saw: Michigan overcome horrible field position in the second half. Do you realize their average starting position was their own 20-yard line?…I also saw Threet run farther without being tackled than I ever thought I he would. I loved the two hands at the end…Speaking of Threet, how about that jump pass on the first possession of the second half. Tebow-esque?…For the most part, Wisconsin did not cross midfield in the second half until their penultimate drive. Their opening drive made it into Michigan territory for a few plays, another started at Michigan’s 46 (because of a penalty) and went backwards, and one other drive made it to the Michigan 49-yard line. Wisconsin never sniffed a scoring opportunity until they were desperate.

What I didn’t see…

Those underachieving Michigan linebackers I keep reading about online. I know Beckum was out, which helped their cause, but the Michigan defense (and linebackers) played well. Hell, they even scored a touchdown. They gave up 19 first half points but you can thank the turnovers for that. Wisconsin only gained 145 yards on their five scoring possessions. If a team like Wisconsin only has to average a 30-yard drive to score, they are going to get points. In the second half, the Badgers went nowhere for 25 minutes.

I also did not see: Nick Sheridan, which was somewhat surprising considering Threet’s halftime stat line…Wisconsin’s ability to cover the intermediate routes. (Mathews dropped the two long pass attempts I can remember.) Give Michigan’s coaches credit for using those routes over and over…Wisconsin jump the snap. Michigan seems to snap the ball in the same rhythm each play – about one second after Threet claps…Any reason not to go for two after the interception return. I understand there is some debate on that point, but a successful try takes pressure off the defense.

Who I watched…

I have to admit, I did not watch anyone in particular. There was not much to watch in the first half and by the time the scoring burst was over, I had been transformed into your basic fan. I was the purest of spectators, without agenda or analytical bent. I was just watching a great finish.

What I expect next week…

Let me play Captain Obvious for a moment and say that a performance similar to their second half will make for a close game. Vegas has the Wolverines as the favorites, so they appear to be counting on that continued performance. Michigan’s offense should look improved against Illinois, but can the defense slow down Juice. I doubt it, and I think Michigan will need to score 30 points to win the game. That means that the offense will have to take some chances early in order to avoid having to play catch-up for a second straight game…I also expect that the boos will be gone for a while. The crowd for the Illinois will be far less timid after that comeback and well be ready to go from the beginning.

What this game tells me about The Game…

Michigan is capable of stringing first downs against a legitimate defense when they do not engage in a fumble festival. We know Ohio State has struggled with spread attacks in the past, so Michigan may be able to move the ball if they continue to improve on offense. It is difficult to speak with certainty regarding their response to adversity since this was a home game (see Notre Dame for opposite road reaction) but I think this win can provide the confidence that was sorely lacking. I have to admit, I have a renewed interest in watching this team. I was really getting bored after four games.

Posted under Analysis

Comments Off on Across the Border: Wisconsin

Tags: ,

Blogpoll Roundtable 4.3
Posted by Tim on October 1, 2008

Hosted by Big Red Network.

Q: Of the four presumed national title contenders to go down this past week–USC, Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin–which team has the best chance to get back in the race by the end of the year?

I’m not sure Wisconsin really counted as a national title contender going in, so the loss to Michigan seems to keep them out for sure, unless they completely run roughshod over the remainder of their schedule.
Florida and USC both lost to vastly inferior opponents, and the Gators had the added “benefit” of doing it on their home field. The Gators, however, face a schedule that is sure to give them the opportunity for several more quality wins over the course of the season. USC, on the other hand, is playing in the relatively weak PAC-10. Only their run of “dominance” (which really seems to have ended a couple years ago) that has voters constantly voting them high can possibly keep them in… and of course they destroyed former #2 Ohio State.
Georgia got completely housed in its home stadium, but at least they lost to a team that was previously undefeated, and is now likely to be the #1 or #2 team in the country by any reasonable standard. The SEC schedule (and a possibly-quality OOC win against Arizona State on the road), including a championship game if they get that far, more than gives them the opportunity to work their way back into the MNC game – assuming Bama stumbles somewhere along the way. 

Q: But what does this mean for Ohio State? Are they back in?

They are back in, but only in the sense that it brings USC, Georgia, and Florida one step closer to having two losses this early in the season. Ohio State will have to be a full game better than any of those teams to make it back to the championship. It may not be fair for the Buckeyes, but in the world of college football, perception is everything, and getting killed in front of a national audience in their last three big out-of-conference games makes the Buckeyes comparatively weak.
Q: Did the week that was open the door for any of the undefeateds out of some of the non-BCS conferences like the Mountain West or the Big East? (Yup, that’s a cheap shot. Thanks, Virginia Tech for not allowing me to make it about the ACC.)
The door is theoretically open, but BYU or Utah would have to perform well against their non-conference competition (Utah has its last chance against an Oregon State team that just thoroughly dominated USC, and BYU’s last effort will be against… Utah State) AND beat the other team, on top of running the conference table. BYU’s non-conference run was less impressive, so Utah probably has a better chance to make it to the MNC game.
However, like Ohio State, these two teams are playing at a major disadvantage in terms if perception. BYU has a little more histroy on its side, but Utah’s season would be more impressive if they finished undefeated. Either way, it will require that no BCS-conference team is undefeated, and more likely that there are very few legimiate contenders with only one loss.

Posted under Analysis, BlogPoll

Comments Off on Blogpoll Roundtable 4.3

Tags: ,

Why Threet Can Run This Offense
Posted by Paul on September 30, 2008

As I watched my recording of the game yesterday I was a little surprised how much Bob Griese stated, flat out, that Steven Threet cannot run the spread option offense. I generally like Griese, and he and Nessler are the best pair on ESPN (I just pretend Maguire isn’t there), but he is flat out wrong in this instance.

No one will confuse Threet with Pat White; all one needs to see is them each throw a 10 yd out (zing!). Pat White was really successful in the zone-read option offense because of how much the defense respected his ability to run. It would open up holes for Slaton if the defense played disciplined and White could punish them when they didn’t maintain their assignments.

The play that, in my mind, really cemented the fact that Threet could in fact run this offense wasn’t the absolutely ridiculous 58-yd keeper, but rather the Minor touchdown run. Take a look:

Deandre Levy, a senior linebacker, is rocked back on his heels by the threat of a QB keeper. This, combined with the inside linebacker blitz, opened up a huge seam for Minor. If Levy didn’t respect Threet’s running ability he could have a crashed in and stopped the play for little or no gain.

Threet is not Pat White, and he won’t be successful in this offense in the same way that White was, but that doesn’t mean he cannot run it. He can run the zone-read and pick up yards when he keeps it, as we’ve all seen. This forces the defenses to at least respect the threat, which can open up holes for Michigan’s talented backs. He may not break the big runs as often as Pat White did, but if he can consistently get 3-5 ydson his keepers, Threet can keep the defense honest. Beyond that he’s getting better touch on his passes. Once he gets those hitch-and-go routes down, we could see yet another dimension added to Michigan’s big play potential.

I’m not convinced that either of the freshman quarterbacks will be able to come in and unseat Threet. If they do (and judging by Rodriguez’s personnel choices this year, they’ll get a shot), we can feel confident that they beat out someone who can, at least competently and at best efficiently, run the zone-read based spread option.

Posted under Analysis

3 Comments »

Tags: , , , , ,

My Postgame Thoughts
Posted by Tim on September 29, 2008

Since I let Paul’s post stand on its own after the game Saturday, here are a few things I’d like to add:

  • First off, Paul’s text message about UConn had to do with the fair catch on a bounced ball. I’m not positive, but I think once the ball touches the ground in NCAA, the right to a fair catch is forfeited. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong.
  • Why did Rodriguez call a timeout (and the refs clarified that it was NOT a challenge) after one of the Wisconsin fumble recoveries. I thought the play was close enough to warrant a challenge, and I think it’s ridiculous that the booth didn’t use the commercial break to at least take another look. From the angles that were shown in the stadium, the Wisconsin player’s left leg was out of bounds by the time he recovered the ball.
  • On that note, at halftime, I was formulating a post in my head about how the refs didn’t cause Michigan to win… but they sure didn’t help. They were much better in the second half, and Michigan may have even gotten a couple of breaks.
  • Steven Threet. 58-yard run. Awesome.
  • Wisconsin fans have picked up the torch from Penn State fans for the honor of “second biggest assholes in the conference.” I said good game to a guy wearing a t-shirt that read “I wouldn’t cheer for Michigan if they were playing Iraq” (yay for dated reference!), and he couldn’t muster anything more than a sneer. He was one of the lesser douchebags I encountered all weekend.

And this stuff may deserve its own post, but I’ll take this opportunity to bitch about the fans:
If you don’t know anything about football, don’t bitch about play calling, etc. I may start a regular feature on Mondays called “From the Dumbest Fan in the Stands,” or give an “atmosphere report” for games that I go to. Option A will be accompanied by the photo you see on the right.
  • If you booed in the first half, you can try to say you were booing the coaching decisions, but you’re either lying or you don’t know about football. The coaches were calling downfield passes, but Threet wasn’t executing. Would you have preferred they keep going to it so we could have had 8 turnovers? The offensive line couldn’t block anyone on running plays. Sure, the coaches are partially culpable, but the players were struggling.
  • Despite all the bad, the stadium didn’t get nearly as quiet during the first three quarters as I would have expected. Most of the noise was coming from the student section at that time, but there were still a few people in the South endzone stepping up.
  • By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the crowd was as loud as I can remember it being.
  • Until the major comeback, my companion and I were the ONLY people in our immediate vicinity (south endzone, row 16) who had stood up on a third down in the game. That is pitiful if you can’t even get up and yell on an important play.
  • At halftime, some idiot behind me yelled “Why don’t you go back to West Virginia, ya stupid snake-oil salesman!” This was stupid for all the obvious reasons, and I thought I had the perfect response “How about we keep him and get rid of you?” Of course, after the game (and I have to give him at least some credit for staying the whole time), he was preaching the glory of the spread.
For ITP this week, we’ll probably be taking a look at Wisconsin’s two 2-point conversion attempts, and what was the difference between the two. If you’d prefer something else (and not the Threet keeper, since we’ve already covered the zone-read ad nauseam), drop your opinion in the comments and Paul and I will try to accommodate you.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching

16 Comments »

Tags: , , , ,

Instant Reaction: Wisconsin
Posted by Paul on September 27, 2008

This is a collection of text messages I sent to Tim during the game. They are in chronological order:

  • so notre dames defense is really bad then…
  • i thought that was nfl only. uconn showed thats completely legit (this is about the fair catch call)
  • yakety sax
  • :(
  •  sheridan eta (I didn’t want this, but I am surprised that the staff stuck with Threet all game. Our starter ladies and gentlemen)
  • that was a sheridan-esque pick to end the half
  • guess what richrod is asking for christmas (the answer is an offensive line)
  • games i needed to be drunker for:
  • i think the 2010 board may need to debut this week to prevent mass suicide
  • chocolate milk power?

After that, it became a game and the phone stayed in the pocket. For most of the year, the team has looked as though it gets stronger in the second half and even into the fourth quarter.  This game should difinitively prove that Michigan is officially a second half teaml, which for anyone who watched the 2005 seaon, is a welcome change.

This has been seen a lot and posted here more than once, but it bears repeating.  You go twelve rounds…
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPyST7zp5kg&hl=en&fs=1]

Posted under Analysis

4 Comments »

Tags: , , ,

Preview: Wisconsin Badgers
Posted by Tim on September 26, 2008

When I originally previewed the Wisconsin Badgers in the summer, it appeared as though they would be one of the conference’s top teams, especially if their pass defense was able to step forward despite the loss of NFL early-entrant Jack Ikegwuonu. When we spoke to Derek Zetlin this week, we learned that a lot has changed for the Badgers so far this season, but the expectations are still high.

First, let’s take a look at Derek’s list of things that weren’t quite right with the preview:

  • Evridge actually won the starting job last year but a hamstring injury allowed Donovan to step in and win the job. He’s also not as immobile as you make it seem.
  • I wouldn’t consider Hill a “Fatty” anymore. He’s lost weight and is now elusive more than ever.
  • WR Maurice Moore is seeing more snaps than the other backups after Jefferson and Gilreath.
  • O’Brien Schofield starts at DE opposite Shaughnessy.
  • McFadden starts over Hodge at MLB. Hodge is actually 3rd on the depth chart behind St. Jean because he sucks that much.
  • Goins and Brinkley have split time opposite Langford. Jay Valai starts at SS over Pleasant.
  • Nortman punts over Debauche and he’s looked good so far.

In addition, some important things have changed since then:

  • Lance Smith was kicked off the team prior to the first game for violating the First Offender Program regarding a domestic violence charge from a year ago. He transfered to Memphis.
  • Beckum did miss the first 2 games because of a hamstring injury. Evridge threw for 308 yards i that game, granted it was against Marshall. But Graham has really looked great and in my mind will be an NFL TE.
  • Kirk Decremer is out for the season with a back injury.
  • Henry has been hurt all year, but might be back for the Michigan game.

So it appears that the Badgers have been missing a couple key pieces to the team.

As per usual, the Badgers look to move the ball behind a power run game on the newly-slimmed legs of PJ Hill. There will be lots of between-the-tackles action behind a strong O-line, and a play-action passing game relying mostly on the tight ends.

However, there is a bit of uncertainty due to injury for the Badgers. Hill has been slightly nicked up, and with Lance Smith off the team, backups John Clay and Zach Brown look to play a more prominent role. Unfortunately for the Badgers, Clay also has had some injury issues so far this fall. If Hill is less than 100%, Michigan may be able to stop Wisconsin by focusing on the run game, and forcing Allan Evridge to get it done through the air.

Even if Travis Beckum still isn’t 100%, however, Garrett Graham is also a darn good option from the tight end position. If Beckum is 100%, Wisconsin should be able to do some really good things in the passing game by going to the TEs. The wideouts don’t pose a huge threat on their own, but with a strong running game and two skilled tight ends to take the defense’s focus off the perimeter, there may be a couple plays available to the Badgers.

Defensively, the Badgers have run hot and cold. Until the Fresno State game, they were on a run of starting games slowly, so if Michigan wins the toss, it might be a good idea to take the ball to start out. The secondary is the major point of weakness for Wisconsin, though they have performed somewhat admirably so far (albeit against Fresno State and a pair of tomato cans). With the potential return of Aaron Henry, they could see another step forward in that respect.

The Badgers are doing a good job against the run, but they’ve faced even-less-prolific offenses in that respect. Michigan is also running a different scheme than any of the Badgers’ opponents so far, and they might be able to expose some weaknesses with the zone-read game. Like many traditional power-run teams, the Badgers have a problem with spread offenses, so the Wolverines may be able to exploit that.

Offensively, Michigan should be able to have some success. If they manage to execute like they did against Notre Dame, minus the egregious mistakes (i.e. several thousand fumbles, Nick Sheridan), they should be able to move the ball.

Predictions
Michigan gets its highest scoring output of the year (currently 23 points against Utah)
The defense helps out in that respect, coming away with a turnover that gives Michigan the ball somewhere inside the red zone (or scoring one themselves).
Wisconsin wins, 34-24

Posted under Analysis

2 Comments »

Tags: , ,

Big Ten Bloggers Roundtable Week 4
Posted by Tim on September 24, 2008

Hosted at Boiled Sports

1) We’re all car guys here at BS. So your task is to assign your own program a vehicle. Is Purdue an all-terrain vehicle like a Jeep or a Hummer? Something befitting a brawny Boilermaker? Is Ohio State a slow, conversion van being passed by Corvettes with USC markings? Is IU a John Deere tractor with a hillbilly riding on it? Get creative and let us know both what your school is if it’s a car as well as assigning a vehicle to as many of the other Big Ten schools as you like. (I’d require you to do them all but I know attention spans are short and counting to 11 is hard.)

Offensively, Michigan is a car that’s pretty badass, but needs a lot of fixing up in terms of replacement parts. It’s kind of new and progressive, but all the pieces aren’t put together quite right yet. Take the hot new sports car of your choice, introduce a state of disrepair, and Ta-Da! Michigan.

2) In Week 1 in the NFL, the New England Patriots learned how precious things can be when Tom Brady had his knee blown out by a former Boilermaker. Let’s say your team wins out from here to the end and is in a BCS bowl game with a chance to do the school and conference proud – what ONE player on your squad would you most likely cry about having his knee blown out in the first quarter? That is, who is truly indispensable?

Stevie Brown, obviously. In all seriousness though, this is a particularly tough question. Nobody on the offense is that indispensible, because Michigan is either feast-or-famine at every spot. At running back, Sam McGuffie is probably the offense’s most exciting and best player, but if he went down, there are other guys behind him. Steven Threet wasn’t even good enough to beat out Nick Sheridan for a starting position at the beginning of the year, so maybe the dropoff isn’t as precipitous as fans have perceived it through three games. There is virtually nobody on the offensive line, with injuries, defections, and the like. Even when one of Michigan’s best linemen, Mark Ortmann, went down, the backups filled in capably. I guess, since the quarterback position is so central to the offense, and Nick Sheridan has looked kinda crappy in his playing time, I’ll have to go with Steven Threet here.

On defense, Michigan has pretty good depth everywhere, but not good top-end talent in the back 5 (linebackers and safeties). If a defensive lineman went down, I think the backup to step in wouldn’t be a major downgrade. Michigan is already playing with a huge linebacker rotation, so if one went down, they wouldn’t be hurting to badly (though Obi Ezeh would be the most painful loss). At safety, Michigan already has a rotation of a couple guys as well, so one injury among the 3-4 co-starters means very little. I guess that leaves Morgan Trent and Donovan Warren as the most important cogs on defense, since the backups are freshmen of varying degrees (although Troy Woolfolk is technically a sophomore, he has garnered very little playing time thus far in his career). If either of the two went down, it would probably be open season for the opposing teams’ quarterbacks.

3) Purdue plays Notre Dame this week and, well, we detest Notre Dame like probably no other program. Let’s say I have the power to force you (maybe you lost a bet to me) to wear another Big Ten school’s colors to an away game for that team. That is, you’re wearing OSU colors to a game being played at Michigan, or something like that. And I’m talking, dorky, head-to-toe… goofy-ass sweatshirts and flat-brimmed, ridiculous-looking hats. If you have to choose, which program would you be able to stomach wearing? (Remember, you’re going to an away game, so people won’t like you and accept you and you’ll be taking this abuse for a school you’re not even affiliated with.) And by the same token, what program could you absolutely not EVER stomach wearing, under any circumstances?

I’m such a huge fan of college gear that I could conceivably pull this off with almost any Big Ten school (RIP my PSU sweatshirt), at least in terms of actually wearing the gear. I guess any of the lower-tier-ish programs would be fine, since the home fans would be more patronizing or pitying than anything. Therefore: I would be totally OK with wearing Northwestern gear anywhere. Schools whose gear that I really wouldn’t want to wear to an away game are those like Ohio State and Penn State, since their fans are generally assholes to visitors, and the favor would likely be returned to me.

4) I like big butts and I can not lie. Share your embarrassing guilty pleasure music selection that you know other people might laugh at. Bonus points if you can send a YouTube video of an awful music video with it. Many/most of us grew up and/or went to college in the ‘80s and ‘90s so I know you’ve all got some Nelson After The Rain on the iPod.

This song is something of a guilty pleasure, but gets major points here for having an awesome video:

Posted under Analysis

5 Comments »

Tags:

«Previous Entries
Next Entries»

Categories

Support Varsity Blue