After Saturday night’s offense-only thriller between Fresno State and Toledo, Michigan fans were understandably worried about facing the Rockets in a few weeks in the Big House. In The Glass Bowl, Toledo took a BCS Buster to the wire, before finally falling in two overtimes. This means that the Rockets are legit, right?

Let’s take a look at the logic.
Wisconsin is a good team
Fresno State played a good game against Wisconsin (in Fresno)
Toledo played a good game against Fresno State (in Toledo)
Toledo is a good team.

Of course, early in the season, we don’t know a whole lot about many teams, and the Badgers, Bulldogs, and Rockets are not exceptions. Is there a chance that out assumptions may be just a little bit off?

Maybe the Badgers really aren’t very good. Sure, it’s not the most likely case, but there’s a possibility. Maybe the Bulldogs aren’t very good, either. And for that matter, the Rockets would be at the end of that food chain.

Resumes? Resumes.
Toledo is 1-2, having been blown out by Arizona (a team in the middle of a BCS conference, not unlike what Michigan expects to be this year), paid it forward to Eastern Michigan (you might not recognize that name without its standard prefix: perennially awful), and had the close loss to Fresno State.

Fresno is 2-1, with a 17-point win over Rutgers, which looks less like the Rutgers of the last 3 years than that of the previous 136. Their other win is over Toledo, in a close (to the tune of a missed-2-pointer-in-overtime) road game. The loss comes at home to Wisconsin, in a game that should probably have been less close than the 3-point margin would indicate, given a ridiculously horrid call that went against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 3-0, with wins over Akron, Marshall, and Fresno State. Assuming Fresno State is worthy of its ESPN-anointed BCS Buster status, the other two games should be of slightly more relevance. The Badgers let Akron get within 17-10 before saying “o ya were da badgers” and blowing out the Zips. They also let Marshall build up a 14-0 lead before saying “o ya were da badgers” and blowing out the Herd. The slow start didn’t happen in Wisconsin’s only road game thus far, as they took a 10-0 lead into halftime and Fresno made it a game in the third quarter.

Yahoo’s Dr. Saturday nee Matt Hinton of SMQ, even said that Fresno’s defense is pretty bad. Wisconsin put up 13 points on said defense. So, unless Arizona is way, way better than expected, maybe none of these teams are that impressive at all. Of course coming off the bye week, the Badgers should be focused and prepared to take on Michigan, but hey, why not try to be a bit of an optimist going into a game that it appears Michigan really doesn’t expect to win?

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In honor of this weekend’s Maize Out game against the Wisconsin Badgers, Varsity Blue shall be known as “Varsity Maize” for this entire week. You may have noticed our RAD NEW BANNER at the top of your screen.

We here at Varsity Maize encourage everyone who is attending Saturday’s game against the Badgers to wear maize clothing, and be loud in support of the Michigan Wolverines in their Big Ten kickoff.

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With the Michigan Wolverines not playing this week, there is little to talk about, so let’s take a moment to revisit my preseason predictions. Of course, I said very few binding things before the season, so we’ll adjust preseason expectations for the remainder of the season, and see where I went wrong at the beginning of the year.

Looking Back:

Utah
The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah’s will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it’s strength against strength as Michigan’s potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah’s D may score once or twice itself.
Prediction: Tossup

Utah’s D didn’t score, but Michigan’s defense was not as strong as expected. I thought Michigan’s offense wouldn’t be very good, but not as bad as it proved to be.

Miami
Miami’s linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn’t come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines’ D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win.
Prediction: Victory

Michigan did indeed pull off a victory on the strength of their defense. The offense looked like it was getting a rhythm going early in the game, but the flow was halted, and the offensive output was far from optimal.

Notre Dame
2008 is Michigan’s turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame’s effort from last year. Jon Tenuta’s blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn’t be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful ’05 and ’06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents… note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense?
Prediction: Tossup

Michigan’s inability to hold onto the ball was the main disappointment here. Jimmy Clausen was indeed improved, enough to capitalize on several short fields afforded by the likes of Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw. Michigan was finally able to get an offensive rhythm going, however, though it didn’t show up on the scoreboard because of all the turnovers.

Looking Forward
Since these games haven’t happened yet, my predictions haven’t become relevant, though I will leave in the Wisconsin prognostication, as we shall see soon enough how close it is to reality.

Wisconsin
The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW’s pass defense doesn’t improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan’s D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn’t prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down.
Prediction: Loss

Perhaps Michigan’s second-biggest disappointment from the Notre Dame game was slowing down the power running attack that the Irish implemented. Wisconsin is the posterboy for that offensive scheme, so the Badgers should have some success, unless the UM linebacking corps can rebound in tremendous fashion. Offensively, the Wolverines started putting it together last week, though Wisconsin’s defense is likely to be more formidable than the Irish were. Still, I have enough confidence to upgrade this one ever-so-slightly to tossup.

Illinois
Prediction: Tossup

I still think Illinois is in a slight rebuilding year after losing their best player on each side of the ball. Juice has looked erratic at times, and good at others. This should be a chance for Michigan to get a statement win.

Toledo
Prediction: Victory

Michigan is undefeated against the MAC, and don’t let the records fool you: Miami was a better team than Toledo is.

Penn State
Prediction: Loss

When I first wrote the preview, I thought Penn State was a probable loss on the verge of a tossup. After seeing both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines in action this season, it’s looking more like a definite loss on the verge of a blowout.

Michigan State
Prediction: Tossup

I still have yet to be impressed by the Spartans. Their loss was to a Cal team that got run off the field by a downright bad Maryland squad, and Javon Ringer is the only MSU player who has looked impressive thus far.

Purdue
Prediction: Victory

Purdue was competitive against Oregon, so maybe I should downgrade this one to a tossup. Still, the Boilers’ offense wasn’t particularly impressive agaisnt a good defense, so the jury is still out on Purdue.

Minnesota
Prediction: Victory

Minnesota has looked better than expected, but the Gophers have a long way to go (and the schedule will only get tougher from here).

Northwestern
Prediction: Victory

After seeing NU play this year, I will downgrade them from a victory to a tossup, though with the game in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan offense presumably continuing its progression, MIchigan still might be able to come away with a win.

Ohio State
Prediction: Pain

Ohio State certainly looked beatable against USC. However, if Beanie Wells plays two games this year, they will be the contests against Young
stown State and Michigan. With Wells in the backfield, and Pryor presumably playing a bigger role as the year goes on, Ohio State is a cut above Michigan. The weak OSU offensive line provides a glimmer of hope, but the downgrade on this game goes only to “defeat.”

And…?
If my preseason prediction of a 7-5 season is to come true, Michigan needs to finish the year with a 6-3 record. With losses coming against Penn State and Ohio State, and wins against Toledo and Minnesota, the Wolverines will have to go 4-1 against a slate of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern. The best I see Michigan going is 3-2, and even that might be something of a stretch.

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Horrid (and questionable but possibly not right) calls that went against Michigan Saturday.

• Chop block on David Molk. The right guard had not engaged the defensive tackle when Molk went low. This is as bad a judgment call as I’ve seen in a while.
• Greg Mathews diving catch in the endzonde ruled incomplete. This was a close call, but Mathews’s right hand was between the ball and the ground the entire time, and the ball is not jarred loose when he hits the ground (a sure sign that he has full control of it). This isn’t an egregiously bad call, but another example of Michigan getting bad breaks in this game. (video below).
• On 4th & 6, Steven Threet throws (slightly behind) Martavious Odoms. Odoms turns back for the ball, but has no chance to make a catch, because his left wrist is raked by the defender, so he can’t get it back to the ball.
• On the very next play, there is no contact between Donovan Warren and Michael Floyd. The pass is broken up. More than three seconds after the play ends, an official away from the ball throws the least-justified pass interference flag possible. Even the NBC announcers(!) think it is a terrible call. On the next play, Golden Tate catches the game-sealing touchdown (in the first quarter, ugh). (video below)
• Second quarter, Michigan has brought the game back within 11, Notre Dame is driving. On second and goal, Donovan Warren is called for pass interference (“a fag is down in the endzone”) on a ball that was thrown out the back of the endzone (again by a ref with an obstructed view of the play, wtf), and would have been uncatchable by anyone. Notre Dame scores a touchdown on the ensuing first and goal.
• Michigan is driving in the second quarter, and Sam McGuffie is literally pulled to the ground by his facemask, and nothing else. The linesman (who is within 4 yards of the play) reaches for his flag, but decides against throwing it. Ultimately, the umpire says “wtf?” and has to throw the flag from 15 yards downfield. This isn’t exactly a missed call, since the umpire made up for it, but how does a linesman not call that?
• Third quarter, Jimmy Clausen grounds it, no doubt at all. The NBC announcers, of course ruminate for a full minute on how “it was probably close enough” to the line of scrimmage. If it doesn’t pass the line of scrimmage, there is no “close enough.”
• With 3:40 left in the third quarter, Michigan has the ball on ND’s 5. Kevin Grady is stopped for a 1-yard gain, and fumbles. His forward progress had been stopped for a good period of time before the fumble. For those who say it shouldn’t have been ruled forward progress because Grady had carried a guy into the endzone earlier in the game: you’re wrong. On the first play, Grady never stopped moving forward (and was hardly even slowed down). On the second play, Grady was wrapped up low by one Irish, and high by two, with his forward progress completely stoppped, when one of the guys up top strips him. It’s a completely different situation, which should result in a completely different call from the officials.
• With 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter, David Bruton makes an interception for the Irish. On the return, he is brought down by David Molk. Molk is called for a horse collar tackle (at least I think so, the NBC coverage was awful). However, what Molk did (grab and release the back of Bruton’s jersey, causing Bruton to lose his balance and fall down) is not at all a horse collar (definition: grabbing the inside of a ball-carrier’s shoulder pads and riding him to the ground). I don’t know how the refs could make such an egregious error on a 15-yard penalty.

Of course, Michigan beat themselves in this game, and they certainly had opportunities to win the game themselves. However, couple all of the above (9 possible mistakes by officials, with at least 3-4 being definite mistakes) with the following Michigan mistakes:

• Following the Molk chop block, Steven Threet and Brandon Minor conspire to fumble the ball inside their own 20, giving Notre Dame a short field. Michigan’s defense can’t stop the Irish.
• On the ensuing kickoff, Michael Shaw muffs the ball, giving Notre Dame yet another short field, on which they convert.
• Donovan Warren, Stevie Brown, and John Thompson all miss tackles on Golden Tate, ultimately resulting in a Notre Dame touchdown.
• Steven Threet fumbles a snap once the torrential downpour begins, which the Irish return for a touchdown.
• Nick Sheridan. Egregious Interceptions. obvs. He completed all five passes he threw, but two of them were to the guys in blue shirts.

…and you have a recipe for disaster that is unlikely to be repeated again.

Notre Dame had no sustained drives, and was outgained 388-260. They also had every single fumble of their own bounce right back to their own players (the exact opposite of what happened to Michigan).

The Wolverines should look at Saturday’s contest with an optimistic light, and Notre Dame fans should be fearful that their win was little more than a fluke.

Posted under Analysis

The Situation
Thanks to a pair of fumbles giving the Irish offense short fields, Michigan trails Notre Dame 14-0. Now, a particularly questionable pass interference call on Donovan Warren has resulted in an Irish 1st and 10 on Michigan’s 48 yard line. Michigan’s defense needs a big stop to prevent the Wolverines from being blown out early.

The Personnel and Formation
The Irish line up with only one wide receiver (Golden Tate). They have two tight ends on the right side of the line, and a weak offset I-formation backfield. This is a clear running formation. To counter, Michigan comes out in their base 4-3. Morgan Trent is the corner lined up over Tate, and Donovan Warren is on the other side. Stevie Brown is 8 yards off the line of scrimmage at free safety, and Brandon Harrison is 15 yards deep as the strong safety.

The Play
Jimmy Clausen gives a play-action fake to Robert Hughes on a counter. Notre Dame leaves 9 men in pass protection, which leaves only one receiver running the route. Golden Tate runs a slant-and-go pattern, cutting in before going straight up the field. Clausen heaves the ball towards Tate, who has 2-3 yards on both Morgan Trent and Brandon Harrison. Tate reels in the ball on the 5 yard line, and waltzes into the endzone untouched.

Why it Worked
The blame for this touchdown does not fall on Stevie Brown. Repeat: Stevie Brown is not culpable. He wasn’t exactly stellar the rest of the day, but don’t rag on the kid for this touchdown. Our good friend GSimmons (a high school DC who runs Shafer’s 3-4 Okie package as his base defense and also knows much more about football than I ever will) lets us know that it appears Michigan is running a read-2 defense, which is a form of cover-2-like-substance. Morgan Trent sees Tate head inside, leading him to believe that Tate will not be a deep vertical threat. Because of this error in judgment, Trent does not cover a deep half, which allows Tate to get behind the defenders. By the time Trent and Harrison realize their error, Tate has enough space to make an easy touchdown grab. Charlie Weis’s decided schematic advantage (which apparently is not yakety saks after all) held true this once, as this was a perfect play call against this type of defense.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis

Massey from Buckeye Commentary offer his thoughts on Michigan’s game. My views on OSU’s game can be found over there.

Michigan – Notre Dame

What I saw…
…was something no Wolverine fan wanted to see. A collapse in the biggest game of the year, to date. (And, before you jump down my throat, I know a collapse when I see one after attending Ohio State’s last three debacles on the national stage.)The big game meltdown practically became a trademark of Rodriguez before he left West Virginia. You do not have to look any further than the Mountaineers last regular season game in 2007.

I also watched a game eerily reminiscent of the Buckeyes’ blowout loss at the hands of the Trojans. Decent defense hampered by horrendous offense and turnovers.

I have no love for Michigan but they are a better team than Notre Dame. Their personnel is better at virtually every position save quarterback and some offensive line spots. The defenses should not be mentioned in the same sentence. Yet, they were never really in this game. Sure they piled up more yards, but the mistakes were crippling and immediate. After ten minutes, Notre Dame was averaging 3 points/play (7 plays = 21 points).

I know I said it last time, but I continue to be impressed with McGuffie.

What I Didn’t see…
…was an offense that can offer any support to the defense. The seven consecutive second-half possessions ending in punts or turnovers was, well, OSU-esque. As of right now, Michigan is 9-for-37 on third down. That’s 24%. Whoa.

I also did not see any progress from Nick Sheridan. I take it all back. In my review of the Utah game, I said Sheridan would eventually take over as the starter. Judging from these last two weeks, I could not be more wrong. I will not be surprised if you have seen the last of him for a while now. Why bother playing him?

Who I watched …
…McGuffie was hard to ignore. Why? Because his main competition fumbled away opportunities to get reps. The other four RBs only had 10 carries while McGuffie received 25 carries and caught four passes. That means he touched the ball on almost half of the Wolverines offensive plays (29 of 70, 42%).

What I expect next week…
…is a lot of practice holding onto the ball. I know the weather was nasty in the second half when most of the turnovers occurred, but the Irish managed to hold onto it. Aside from that, I would be willing to bet that Threet and McGuffie get plenty of reps together in practice in order to build timing and backfield cohesiveness. They have to be the starting backfield at this point. There are no other viable options. They should receive 90% of the work. Michigan needs to take advantage of this bye week with the back-to-back home games versus Wisconsin and Illinois up next.

What this can tell us about The Game…
Michigan is lot farther from beating Ohio State than the Buckeyes’ dismal performance in Los Angeles might suggest. Ohio State has trouble protecting the quarterback against an aggressive defense. Michigan, on the other hand, did not sack Clausen last week after registering 8 in 2007. If the Wolverines cannot get through that offensive line, I have little faith that they will be able to penetrate OSU’s porous unit.

It also tells me that Rodriguez needs to prove that he can win the most important games on the schedule, whether they be generated by circumstance or rivalry. I have not seen that from him yet.

Posted under Analysis

Posted under Analysis

I’ve decided this will be a semi-regular feature. I really couldn’t think of anything for Miami but there’s plenty in this game.

The Weather is Straight out of The Odyssey. You know how Odysseus and a few of his men get stuck in Cyclops’s cave? They took some timber, sharpened an end and blinded Cyclops and then escaped by lashing themselves to the undersides of his sheep, so they slip out without being detected. Well, unfortunately for them Cyclops was Poseidon’s son, and Poseidon controls the weather on the ocean. Poseidon was angry that they did that to his son and whipped up a storm that sunk every boat save Odysseus’ and knocked his off into the edge of the world. I’m not sure what giant creature Rich Rodriguez blinded, but whichever deity controls the weather in South Bend sure as hell was pissed. The kicker is that this malevolent deity waited until its team was up by double digits before unleashing its wrath. Crafty…

Jimmy Clausen is Portia from The Merchant of Venice. Portia is definitely the hero of this play, and Jimmy Clausen was arguably the hero of the game on Saturday. I would personally say Michigan’s slippery hands were the hero, but if you want a person, Jimmy will do. The short version of this joke is that Portia is a women who dresses up as a man to save the day. I mean, have you seen Clausen’s hair? The longer story, is that she went to save Antonio who was in danger of losing a pound of flesh as he guaranteed his friend’s, Basonio, loan. Basonio is inept at his job, but still manages to land Portia, a wealthy heiress, by performing an arbitrary task. Weis, on the same token, is an inept coach who managed to land a very highly regarded (albeit feminine) recruit, most likely by consuming two whole turkeys. I’m not sure who Antonio would be. Maybe Jack Swarbick, Notre Dame’s Atheltic Director. The main components of Antonio are loyalty, a basic level of competancy and a strong hatred of jews, so maybe? I don’t judge.

Finally…

The Game in General is The Jungle by Upton Sinclair. The main character, Jurgis Rudkus, is a Lithuanian immigrant fresh off the boat (well, that plus the trip to Chicago). He has an indomitable love for the American dream of pulling himself up by the bootstraps. Jurgis could be Michigan in general. Stepping bravely into new uncharted lands with a firm belief that, despite toil and tribulations, there is a higher goal that will inevitably be achieved. Early on in the novel, tragedy strikes quickly in the form of unscrupulous guests taking advantage of a wedding party and even taking what few donations were given leaving the family with nothing. Similarly, right out of the gate some players coughed up the ball and Michigan was left with a 21 point debt.

Although the main point of The Jungle may have been an evisceration of capitalism in favor of socialism (which some may agree with), the main thing I remember about the novel is a couple good things happening to Jurgis and then some massive tragedy coming out of left field. For example:

1. Jurgis gets a job
2. The women of the family were able to scrounge and make a nice meal
3. Jurgis‘ son drowns in the mud while Jurgis is working.

In the game, most of what happened was good: McGuffie looked dominant, Threet looked acceptable++ and the receivers were making plays, but then there would be a hope killing turnover. Eventually it was too much for Jurgis (Rodriguez) to deal with and he just gave up (put in Sheridan*). The last hundred or so pages are basically socialist propaganda which, if you’ve been over to Wolverine Liberation Army since the game, you got as well. Sometimes these are just eerie…

*Reports are Threet came out with cramps, which seems like a logical answer.

Posted under Analysis

The refs were truly brutal in this game. I certainly won’t blame them for the end result, but they definitely had a hand in getting the game there. Awful PI calls on Warren, a somewhat questionable one on Trent, and a catch by Mathews gave the Irish about a 15 point swing, and when playing from behind, players are more likely to take risks to make a big play. Also, the Grady fumble should have been called dead for forward progress. That was a hell of a missed call. Again, the players are ultimately responsible for the result, but this is a young team that didn’t really deserve the help in beating itself.

The defensive line was kinda crappy. Though they ultimately allowed ND to get only 3.3 yards for each carry, they gave up some critical yards in the third and fourth quarters. Still, when the defense only gives up 1 or 2 scoring drives (one ND TD “drive” started at the Michigan 11, one at the Michigan 14, two were composed almost entirely of a long pass to Golden Tate, and the final TD was scored on defense), it’s hard to find a ton of fault on that side of the ball.

Steven Threet, as predicted by many, has settled down the more game reps he has gotten. He finally calmed down enough to execute the throws that he was floating before. Then Sheridan came in a reminded Michigan fans why they should want Threet to succeed.

Sam McGuffie looks like the real deal. The offensive line was still sub-optimal against the Irish, and McGuffie had some impressive runs (and of course the screen pass). It was so kind of Perry Dorrestein to slam into McGuffie from behind on the touchdown screen.

Going forward, this game should probably give a little more hope to Michigan fans, though they are still disappointed for what could have been. I guess that’s what Michigan gets for RUNNING THE SPREAD OPTION IN HURRICANE KATRINA.

Posted under Analysis

So… that was a full-on Yakety Sax performance. Even with the threat of sounding like a huge homer, there was a lot of good in the game.

• Threet looked like a solid QB. Between the throws down the field and how he took off on third and long for a first and goal, he made a lot of good decisions and the execution was there.
• McGuffie is the real deal. I thought Shaw may have been the better TB after Miami, but McGuff was absolutely filthy all day.
• The fade is a hard pass to defense
• Stevie Brown made one or two mistakes. He also made a couple plays.
• Special teams FTL!
• Notre Dame spends it’s TV and Bowl money on the refs.

There will be more in depth analysis when I watch the game sober. Is it to mean to make a yakety sax montage for Michigan? I’m serious, it might be cathartic. Let me know.

UPDATE: Can I legitimately make fun of Weis for getting Paterno’d when Michigan got housed? I have ideas…

Posted under Analysis