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Negative Recruiting Debunk: Spread QBs

Listed below are statistics of Quarterbacks in the top 100 rushers in a given year. Immediately below each one, there is a snippet on where each one was drafted, or how they did in the NFL. As you can see, the number of times a quarterback rushes the ball has little bearing on where he will be drafted. Rather, it is a matter of which skills you have.

2007
Player Class Rushes Yds Passes Eff
Michael Desormeaux Jr 188 1141
Pat White Jr 197 1335 216 151.4
Jake Locker Fr 172 986
Dan LeFevour So 188 1122 543 133.5
K-N Kaheaku-Enhada Jr 180 834
Stephen McGee Jr 181 899 364 117.8
Tim Tebow So 210 895 350 172.5
Matt Grothe So 198 872 392 121.0
Zac Robinson So 140 879 333 149.0

All of these players are back in college this year, but several of them are NFL-bound. Pat White will be a first day pick as a receiver, and Tim Tebow and Dan LeFevour are locks to be eventual NFL draft picks. Grothe will probably also make it to the NFL, along with Jake Locker, Matt Grothe, and maybe Zac Robinson.


2006
Player Class Rushes Yds Passes Eff
Julian Edelman Jr 169 658 232 124.4
Pat White So 165 1219
James Starks Fr 175 704
Chris Nickson So 146 694 292 122.8
Bernard Jackson Jr 155 677 219 103.3

None of these players made it to the NFL (yet, as several are still eligible).

2005
Player Class Rushes Yds Passes Eff
Brad Smith Sr 229 1301 399 114.1
Vince Young Jr 155 1050 325 163.9
Pat White Fr 151 932
Lamar Owens Sr 213 880
Michael Robinson Sr 163 806 311 127.2
Reggie McNeal Sr 96 664 265 128.6
Shaun Carney So 170 710

I think we all know how Vince Young made out after leaving Texas (3rd overall in 2006). Reggie McNeal was picked as a receiver in the 6th round. Brad Smith went in the 4th round at receiver, and Michael Robinson was a fellow 4th-rounder as a running back.

2004
Player Class Rushes Yds Passes Eff
Vince Young So 167 1079 343 128.5
Josh Cribbs Sr 170 893 335 133.2
Aaron Polanco Sr 246 980
Walter Washington Jr 222 889 332 118.5
Rasheed Marshall Sr 169 861 242 143.4
Drew Stanton Jr 96 687 220 131.8
Joel Armstrong Fr 114 608

Rasheed Marshall (who played for Rich Rodriguez at WVU) was a 5th-round pick as a receiver. Josh Cribbs went undrafted, but is still playing in the NFL as a receiver/returner for the Cleveland Browns. Drew Stanton was the 2nd-round pick of the Detroit Lions in 2006, and is expected to challenge for their starting position this year.

Also, for the record, Michael Vick was a number 1 overall draft pick, despite only actually playing college football for 2 years, and being as far from a prototypical NFL quarterback as you can imagine. Offensive style doesn’t dictate where a “system quarterback” will be drafted. Instead, it is skill that is paramount. NFL GMs can tell if a guy has an NFL arm, regardless of whether he’s running the zone-read (Vince Young), a different type of running spread (Tim Tebow), or a passing-oriented offense (Dan LeFevour, among others).

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Dear Internet,

There is no ‘q’ in the last name of Michigan’s head coach. The proper spelling is “Rodriguez.”

“My name is Rich Rodriguez, and I approved this message.”

This has been a public service announcement brought to you by Varsity Blue.

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How Coaching Clinics Pay Dividends

Back in the spring, the Michigan staff opened its doors to high school and college coaches from around the country, and conducted a coaching clinic. Near-legendary Mike Barwis gave presentations about strength training, and defensive and offensive techniques were taught to the attendees. However, the main event (if not Barwis, of course), was the presentation on how the Michigan offense will work, and the principles behind said offense.

Many Michigan fans were curious about why the staff would give away its secrets, especially when the enemies could so easily use this information against the Wolverines (several MSU coaches were rumored to be in attendance). Of course, the coaches wouldn’t share all their secrets, nor does a knowledge of the system necessarily reveal the secrets to stopping it.

Instead of focusing on the possible negatives from spreading the… spread…, it is necessary to take note of the positives (and realize that they outweigh any potential negatives). I’ve brought this up before, but looking at future instate prospects, it really hit home to me how beneficial this sharing can be.

In 2010, the state of Michigan has a fairly strong recruiting class. Included in this class are two top dual-threat quarterbacks: Robert Bolden from Orchard Lake Saint Mary’s and Devin Gardner from Inkster (more on them in the upcoming 2010 recruiting primer). OLSM already runs a form of the spread (though not, if I recall correctly, a read-option), but I’m not sure what type of scheme Inkster runs. The Michigan coaching staff, by teaching its system to high school coaches across the state and country, gives itself an advantage. First, the coaching staffs at the high schools have a familiarity with the Michigan staff, and will not hesitate to encourage a player to commit to the Wolverines in the future. Second, players will be comfortable going to a school with an offensive system they ran in high school, and will have a leg up on learning the system by the time they enroll in college.

By giving high school coaches in the state access to the Michigan coaching staff and their knowledge of the spread offense, it helps the high schools develop prospects speficially for Michigan’s system, and also gives the Wolverines an upper hand in recruiting these youngsters.

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RichRod’s First Year at WVU

Many preseason publications warn Michigan fans: Rodriguez went 3-8 in his first year at West Virginia, so expect a very rough year in 2008. However, in order to fully understand what 2001 can tell us about 2008, we have to take a closer look at the 2001 Mountaineers.

The Previous Year
In Don Nehlen’s final year at the helm in Morgantown, West Virginia went 7-5, including a bowl victory. The season started on a high note, with a 34-14 victory over Boston College, followed by a 30-17 win over Maryland, both at home. The next week, however, the Miami Hurricanes rolled into town, and pasted WVU by a score of 47-10 (keep in mind that this was when Miami was actually good).

Uncomfortably close victories over Temple and Idaho (29-24 and 28-16, respectively) were followed by a three game slide against Virginia Tech (48-20), Notre Dame (42-28), and Syracuse (note that this was before Syracuse became ghastly bad).

In Don Nehlen’s final home game at Mountaineer Field, West Virginia beat East Carolina by a margin of 42-24. Their finish in the Big East gave the Mountaineers an invitation to the Music City Bowl.

Though heavy underdogs, West Virginia upset Mississippi State 49-38, thanks to a career day by QB Brad Lewis, who threw 5 touchdown passes and directed the offense to 432 total yards.

Here is a breakdown of where the Mountaineers ranked in several offensive and defensive categories:

West Virginia Mountaineers 2000
Category Value Nat Rank Conf Rank
Rush YPG 140.82 64 5
Pass YPG 207.45 66 5
Total Offense 348.27 73 6
Points/Game 27.91 46 4
Rush Defense 146.45 53 6
Pass Defense 233.00 89 8
Def Pass Efficiency 121.39 66 6
Total Defense 379.45 69 6
Scoring Defense 29.55 84 7
Turnover Margin 0.64 23 3

In Between
Clemson Offensive Coordinator Rich Rodriguez was hired by West Virginia on November 26th, 2000. The Mounatineers returned starting quarterback Brad Lewis, though they graduated 2nd-leading receiver Kory Ivy, and a couple offensive linemen, but they did return most of their offense. On defense, linebackers David Carter, Cory McIntyre, and Chris Edmonds were the key departees. Kicker John Ohliger also departed.

Though Rodriguez didn’t inherit a world-beating team (The Mountaineers tied for 5th in the Big East with BC, whom they beat head-to-head, and as illustrated above, they were in the bottom half of the conference in nearly every category), their were enough returning personnel to expect a similar finish the following year.

Editor’s Note: I’m having a tough tiome tracking down 2000 and 2001 All-Big East Teams (even from the Big East office), so if you have access to them, please let me know.

2001
Nearly every Michigan fan knows that Rodriguez went 3-8 in his first year as WVU’s Head Coach, so let’s take a deeper look at each game.

In the first game of the year, West Virginia traveled to Boston, to take on the Eagles of Boston College. Brad Lewis and Rasheed Marshall combined to throw three picks and zero touchdowns. RB Avon Cobourne was the only Mountaineer to find the end zone on that day, and kicker Brenden Rauh went 1-3 on his field goal attempts. Boston College lit up the scoreboard, putting 34 points on the Mountaineers. RB William Green took it to the house 3 times, and QB Brian St. Pierre threw a TD pass to Dedrick Dewalt.

In game 2, Rodriguez got his first victory as the head coach at West Virginia. The Mountaineers took on the Ohio Bobcats at home. Avon Cobourne ran for 173 yards and two TDs, and Brenden Rauh tacked on a pair of field goals. Brad Lewis threw for a quiet 134 yards, while rushing for 9. For the other side, Bobcats RB Jamel Patterson ran for a mere 53 yards, while QB Dontrell Jackson threw for 87 yards and ran for 34.

In game three, WVU took on another MAC opponent. Facing Kent State at home, the Mountaineers would ultimately walk off the field with a 34-14 victory. Avon Cobourne ran for 181 yards and 1 score, and Brad Lewis threw for 286 and two scores while running one in as well. For Kent State, Josh Cribbs ran and passed for a score each, while throwing 2 interceptions.

The non-conference schedule continued with a trip to College Park, Maryland, where the Mountaineers faced off against the Terps. They would head back to Morgantown as the recipients of a 32-20 loss. Avon Cobourne ran for 128 yards, but no scores, while Brad Lewis attempted 52 passes. He threw for a total of 279 yards with 1 touchdown, but also completed 4 passes to the gentlemen in the red jerseys (one of which a player known to the NCAA statbook only as “Whaley” took to the house). Wide Receiver Shawn Terry ran a kickoff back for a touchdown, and Brenden Rauh added a pair of field goals. For the Terps, Bruce Perry ran for a touchdown, and QB Shaun Hill passed and rushed for one. RB Marc Riley ran one in as well.

The Mountaineers didn’t have much time to rest, as they invited Virginia Tech into Morgantown the following week. The Hokies brushed off West Virginia without so much as an effort, shutting out the opponent 35-0. Keith Burnell ran for 2 TDs
for Tech, Grant Noel Passed for a pair, and Kevin Jones ran one in as well. For West Virginia, Brad Lewis threw a pick and Avon Cobourne was held to just 31 yards.

Game 6 found the Mountaineers on the road in South Bend, where they dropped a 34-24 decision to the Irish. Brad Lewis threw for 91 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, while Avon Cobourne threw in 169 yards and a TD of his own. For the opposition, Carlyle Holliday threw for just 70 yards, with an interception. However, Julius Jones ran for 2 TDs, and Tony Fisher chipped in with a pair as well. The RB tandem rushed for a total of 211 yards, with Holliday adding another 130 on the ground.

Relief wouldn’t come just yet for West Virginia, as they traveled to the OB for a night game against the eventual national champion Miami Hurricanes. WVU managed only a field goal, while the Canes scored 45. Clinton Portis ran for 76 yards and a touchdown, while Frank gore added 124 yards and a couple scores of his own. Ken Dorsey threw for 192 yards, two scores and an interception. Andre Johnson and Jeremy Shockey each had a receiving touchdown. Some dude named “Jones” threw 4 picks for West Virginia.

Looking to snap the 4-game losing streak, The Mountaineers next invited Rutgers into Mountaineer Field. It wasn’t pretty, as West Virginia pasted the Scarlet Knights by a score of 80-7. Rutgers’s only points were scored by Marcus Jones, who ran for 105 yards. West Virginia had scoring in bunches, with Avon Cobourne complimenting his 147 yards with 4 touchdown runs, Quincy Wilson running for 129 yards and a score of his own, Rego Cooper chipping in 65 yards and a trip to the endzone, and Cassell Smith getting a touchdown of his own. Brad Lewis threw for 175 yards and two touchdowns. Defensive back Shawn Hackett did the nearly unthinkable, scoring on both an interception retun and a fumble return.

With a bit of momentum on their side, West Virginia looked to get another Big East win against Syracuse. However, the Orangemen would triupmh 24-13. James Mungro ran for 78 yards and all three Syracuse touchdowns. Rasheed Marshall did the touchdown scoring for West Virginia, on 22 ruching yards (he also threw a pick). Brenden Rauh added a pair of field goals.

Next up for West Virginia was Temple. Though this sounds like a layup, the Owls went home with a 17-14 victory over West Virginia. Avon Cobourne ran for 103 yards, and Rasheed Marshall tacked on 95 of his own (and a touchdown). In his first start, Marshall also passed for 128 yards and a score (to AJ Nastasi), though he threw 2 interceptions. For Temple, Tanardo Sharps ran for 174 yards and Mac Devito threw for 85. The scoring was provided by running back Lester Trammer (who also had 30 yards) and three field goals by Cap Poklemba.

The Backyard Brawl was the last chance for West Virginia to come away from 2001 with a good taste in their mouths, but it was not to be. Pitt won 23-17 at Mountaineer Field. Rasheed Marshal ran for 40 yards and a score, while passing for 64 and another touchdown. For Pitt, David Priestley threw for 172 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception.

Let’s see how the West Virginia stats from 2001 stack up to their performance in Don Nehlen’s final year:

West Virginia Mountaineers 2000
Category Value Nat Rank Conf Rank
Rush YPG 181.09 36 4
Pass YPG 164.64 96 6
Total Offense 345.73 80 4
Points/Game 21.36 89 6
Rush Defense 213.18 104 7
Pass Defense 136.73 1 1
Def Pass Efficiency 99.37 8 3
Total Defense 349.91 40 6
Scoring Defense 24.36 51 6
Turnover Margin -0.73 98 7

The Mountaineers finished last in the Big East with a 3-8 record (1-6 in conference).

What have we learned?
Rodriguez’s first year struggles at West Virginia actually don’t appear to be too great a dropoff from Nehlen’s final season. The defense was alternately terrible (run defense) and awesome (pass defense). However, it was not a significant weak point, and shouldn’t be pointed to as the cause of West Virginia’s slide (it is important to note, however, that Michigan will field a much, much better defense in 2008 than WVU did in 2001).

In the offensive stats, the rush yards increased significantly, while the pass yards decreased significantly. This is expected to occur (perhaps to a lesser degree) at Michigan this year as well. Brad Lewis was not an efficient passer (96th in the country) and Michgian fans can hope that a sour-star recruit in Steven Threet can carry the team a bit more.

Turnovers seem to be the main factor in WVU’s struggles during the 2001 system. If you subscribe to the theory that they are mostly random, then West Virginia would have had a much better year if only they had a bit more luck. The system transition may have had something to do with it, but 6 picks thrown by the “Jones” guy, and 9 for Lewis and 4 for Marshall seem to imply that maybe the Mountaineers just had bad QB play.

Forecasting
If the past is any indication, Michigan shouldn’t have a catastrophic first year under the Rich Rodriguez regime. He has had time to fine-tune his system at the highest levels of play, and the personnel on the team that he is taking over is a ridiculously large upgrade over what he
had to work with at West Virginia. Many fans and pundits expect the Michigan defense to carry the load, particularly early in the season, which is somethign Rodriguez wasn’t able to do.

So, for those who see a 1-7-1 record in his first year at Glenville State and a 3-8 mark in his first year at West Virginia and predict pain for Michigan this year, I won’t go so far as to say expect a conference championship for the Wolverines, but a 34th conecutive bowl game is certainly likely.

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Varsity Blue Podcast

West Virginia Offense. Next week we’ll get back to recruiting.

 
icon for podpress  Breaking Down the WVU Offense [7:00m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

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Coach Rod on College Football Live

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RR Video from B10 Media Day

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On Gimmick Offenses

A little while back, there was a good post on Burnt Orange Nation about Texas Tech, and how a “gimmicky offense” doesn’t inherently lead to a team having poor defenses. Of course, the reason I bring this up is because of the perception that Rich Rodriguez run a gimmick offense himself, and the fear that this wouldn’t work at a high level.

Essentially, the theory goes: (1) offenses can be enginnered[sic] to take advantage of inferior athletes much more easily than defenses. (2) defenses require great athletes to be great. (3) it’s very hard to recruit great athletes to Lubbock, Texas. (4) therefore, Leach’s offenses have outpaced his defenses. Look around college football at the mid-level programs that have over-achieved in the past 10 years. What do they all have in common? Explosive offense; spotty defense.

This holds true for West Virginia to a certain extent as well. While Rodriguez’s recent success enabled him to recruit better players to Morgantown, WV, it was the Mountaineer offenses that became known around the nation, not the defenses. Recently, the defensive was able to improve based on the success of the team overall. Obviously, Michigan has been a national power, and will not have the same recruiting difficulties as Texas Tech or West Virginia.

If any of you have read the Blind Side by Michael Lewis, you’ll recall his discussion of Bill Walsh’s innovative West Coast offense. Well, NOW it’s called innovative. Back when it was introduced, it was thought of as gimmicky and voodoo. Sound familiar? Then Walsh (who himself said that defensive prowess depends primarily on having great athletes and smart football players, not a scheme) and his 49ers got a defense and won a few Super Bowls and now teams freely use the West Coast Offense as a viable system.

Of course, Michigan’s defense is expected to carry the torch in year one while the offense plays catch-up, so will the Rodriguez spread simply considered “innovative” rather than “gimmicky” in no time flat?

Leach could have been content with Tech being a mediocre team that loses to good teams with better players and beats the teams it’s supposed to. But he instead created a system that allowed his inferior players to beat the best on any given Saturday. Unfortunately for Leach, however, if his offensive system isn’t working, Tech can lose to teams that have even more inferior talent than it. Why? In short, no damn defense.

Of course, a lack of offense explained the WVU loss to Pitt, but it wasn’t because they had “no damn defense” (Pitt only put up 14 points). The lack of the system working and special teams blunders (due to Pat White’s injury and missing three field goals, respectively) were to blame here. With ability to recruit better backups and, presumably, special teams players than West Virginia, hopefully Michigan can avoid upsets of this nature.

In the end, it comes down to Michigan having a “decided schematic advantage” over the opponents (note: actual advantage, not Weis-labeled advantage) on offense, without the defensive difficulties that a team like Texas Tech or West Virginia may encounter. With an effective offensive system and the ability to recruit high-caliber defensive recruits, the sky is the limit for the Wolverines.

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Lawsuit Ordeal Comes to an End

Per ESPN and the News, Rich Rodriguez has agreed to pay the full $4 Million buyout, but without having to pay any interest or legal fees to West Virginia.

This should resolve the issue, and I wonder if West Virginia fans will ease the vitriol towards their former headman, now that he isn’t engaged in legal wrangling with his alma mater. I kinda doubt it (I think their anger was over being dumped by Rodriguez, and the suit gave a good excuse), but we shall see.

At any rate, this should be the end of the entire ordeal, and everyone associated with Michigan football can stop worrying about this, and focus on football.

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The Grady Punishment

For the first time in a while, the sports media are somewhat abuzz with talk of the Michigan Wolverines. Of course, I’d prefer them to discuss anything other than the potential punishment of a player, but such is life.

So why is everyone talking about how stiffly Kevin Grady is going to be punished? Because nobody knows exactly how severe the potential punishment will be. Grady is the first player to have a (public) misstep since Rodriguez took the helm in Schembechler Hall, and with such model citizens as Adam Jones and Chris Henry on his resume under the “former players” heading, there is a certain curiosity about what he will do to Grady, morbid though it may be.

The proposals range from doing nothing (as Ohio State fans think will happen, for some reason), to kicking Grady off the team. Jeff Chaney, a columnist for the Grand Rapids Press, said today on the radio that he thinks the latter is the most appropriate and likely outcome. Naturally, I disagree.

The logic Chaney followed was this: Grady is a third-teamer, and therefore must serve as an example to the rest of the team. Of course, this doesn’t take into account that making an example is widely thought of as a terrible idea. Nor does Chaney realize the modus operandi of the Rich Rodriguez staff. Just as upperclassmen and projected starters were not cut any slack in the training room, why should Grady’s status as a non-starter (which Chaney infers, rather than actually knowing) mean that he has less leeway with the coaches?

In rodriguez’s world, that isn’t how it happens. The most likely scenario is that Grady is punished during the summer, and possibly suspended for a game or two in the fall.

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