First things first. Our boy RJ asks:

“The stat that you always hear preseason is returning starters. How much does this stat actually predict the outcomes of a season? Just because players haven’t had game experience doesn’t mean they won’t breakout. Good starters have to come from somewhere before they start.”

Well, returning starters have two advantages over anyone else on the team:
1) They were good enough to start last year (over any seniors who may have been on the team)
2) They have in-game experience.
The first part is self-explanatory, but it is the second part that is more important. Playing experience is huge moving from high school to college because the quality of opponent and speed of the game are faster, as well as fan interaction and pressure. A guy who has played before at least knows what it is like playing before 100,000+, and has experience either channeling that out or harnessing it to his advantage. A first-time player doesn’t know what that is like.

In addition, players can break out from non starting roles (or even as freshmen). But the potential for a freshman is anywhere from 0 to 100% of what you expect. An experience player has already shown what he can do in a game, so there are fewer surprises (positively and negatively).

Question numero dos is from Sam:

“whats the deal with william campbell? he says he is committed but that he is going to go on visits? that doesnt sound like a commit to me! thanks for your answer.”

I agree with you. If a player commits, but says he is going to look around, then I don’t consider it a commit at all. Rather, it is a strong lean. Nobody is truly committed until they sign the LOI, but there are definitely degrees of commitment. A guy who won’t take any other visits and actively recruits for your team is obviously most committed with guys who tell the national services that they are “kinda committed” to the school of their choice at the other end of the spectrum.

As far as Campbell in particular, I don’t think there is much to worry about. Here is a kid from Detroit who hasn’t had a ton of opportunity to see the world. Now he is given free trips to South Beach and L.A. based on his athletic talents. Can you hold it against him for taking up those offers?

Rich Rod has said he will recruit guys to the end, regardless of commitments. While most took that to mean he wouldn’t have a problem continuing to recruit Shaw and Roundtree last year, it also applies to guys committed to the Wolverines who are still looking around. If Campbell ends up going elsewhere, it isn’t because Rodriguez was sleeping on the job.

Posted under Mail Bag, Personnel, Recruiting

Arriving in the fall:
Kevin Koger & Brandon Moore (TE), Roy Roundtree (WR), Michael Shaw (also an RB) & Terrence Robinson & Martavious Odoms (Slot). All three slots are essentially guaranteed to see PT. Roundtree might get some spot duty, along with perhaps one of the TEs (not likely). I foresee Redshirts for both TEs and Roundtree.

Clemons could be a monster in the slot, but the position is too important in this offense to have just one body there. He also has a skill set that transfers to outside receiver so he’ll likely see time at both positions. Earnly enrollee Darryl Stonum had an impressive spring, and will probably see significant PT in the fall.

This position group loses nobody except perpetually-injured tight end Mike Massey. For recruiting, they will look for a couple outside WRs and apparently 7,000 slot guys (with two potentially committed in Teric Jones and Fitzgerald Toussaint).

Michigan will need 2-3 slot guys (with 2 potentially committed already, in Teric Jones and Fitzgerald Toussaint (see RB)), and about 2 outside receivers. James Jackson seems like another slot-type guy that could potentially end up with Michigan, though he appears to be digging OSU of late. Bryce McNeal is currently the strongest shot at an outside receiver.

If Fragel were to commit, he probably wouldn’t end up at TE. Sims and Mitchell are big TEs with WR speed, though I still maintain that Sims’s best future position would be DE (where he could be an absolute terror).

Posted under Personnel, Recruiting

With spring practice finally concluded, it’s time to start looking at the team for 2008. First, the depth chart, then recruiting needs.

Here in the fall:
Justin Feagin (QB), Sam McGuffie & Michael Shaw (Speed back), Mike Cox (Power back). Feagin will almost definitely play a big role on this team, with McGuffie and Shaw getting PT as well. Look for a redshirt out of Cox.

With the new offense, things are going to get a bit confusing, because there will be some definite overlap between speed backs and slot receivers, and they currently occupy different position groups in these handy charts.

Anyway, Michigan loses nobody from this position group to graduation, though there may be some possibility for early entry (an RB that has a huge year – which isn’t all that likely) or other attrition (such as a Cone transfer). This means that the need is somewhat limited in recruiting. Michigan will need 2 quarterbacks, both dual-threat, and preferably have one of them enroll for the winter semester. They can always use more speedy guys, especially since they can double as slot receivers. It is unlikely that there will be a need for bigger running backs or fullbacks.

Michigan’s top prospect is likely Kevin Newsome, who is a near-perfect fit for the offensive scheme. He is also a pretty serious student, and is considering an early enrollment. After that, Tate Forcier and Shavodrick Beaver are the next prospects. Beaver is an explosive athlete as well, and Michigan fans would be ecstatic to gain his commitment as well. It is unlikely that Michigan will be able to convince 2 top-top guys to commit (this isn’t USC, after all), so one elite prospect (of the aforementioned group of three) and another depth player/project (perhaps Thomas Gordon from Cass Tech or Darwin Rogers from Chicago Leo) would be a realistic goal.

Both of these guys can be RB/slot players.

With two speedy guys already in the fold, Michigan may start to slow down at the RB position, unless they are projected to both be slot players. Michigan may be done, unless a top guy wants to commit. If they want a power back or MX, Hersey Jackson could be the guy, though I’m not sure there is much interest from either party.

Posted under Personnel, Recruiting

Oh RB Fitzgerald Toussaint has given Rich Rodriguez his word to sign with Michigan in February. Toussaint is a 5-10, 185lb back from Isaiah Bell’s high school, Youngstown Liberty.

Player Notes
Toussaint is a little guy who is speedy and has great balance. He seems a lot like a poor man’s Noel Devine, not unlike Oklahoma RB David Oku. For the evidence, check out his highlight video from Scouting Ohio:

Toussaint will be a slot/scatback hybrid, just like seemingly every player Michigan is pursuing.

Recruiting Notes
Toussaint is the second of three major recruits from Liberty to commit to Michigan, leaving only LB Julius Ferrell – who may still end up a member of this class. He becomes Michigan’s 5th commitment for the 2008 class.

Posted under Recruiting

I’m digging this Monday-Friday recruiting update schedule when there isn’t a ton going on. I’ll probably keep to it except in the case of big news like commitments. Speaking of which… a couple of bigtime visitors are coming in the weekend, including Bryce McNeal. I wouldn’t be shocked if McNeal pulled the trigger for Michigan. On to the update… (full board here).

Moved to committed:
OH RB Fitzgerald Toussaint. This is what I get for publishing before doing all my due diligence.

New Information:
SC QB (DB to most other schools) Stephon Gilmore says that Tennessee is his favorite, but he isn’t close to finalizing a decision.
OK RB David Oku. Pontificates on Michigan and Ohio State. By the way, he has a top 6 with neither in-state school.
IL OL Chris Watt visited Notre Dame for the 7 millionth time, I think it’s fair to say they’re his favorite.
FL QB Aaron Murray is the first player selected to the Elite 11 camp.
OH OL Marcus Hall. Ohio State, Southern Cal, and Illinois are his favorites.
LA DT Chris Davenport has a top two (LSU and USC) and a decision schedule (Spetember or October). He is a candidate for removal soon, since the Wolverines appear to be out of the race.

Most importantly, this:
TX QB Shavodrick Beaver is really wanted by TCU. A quote from Beaver:

“I was just about to make a decision here for TCU, but now I don’t know… but now that Michigan has offered that made me want to change my mind.”

Sounds like Michigan and TCU are atop his list. The entirety of the “open letter” response to Beaver’s comment (warning: it’s really stupid):

“Dear Shavodrick,

Its COLD as HELLLLL in Michigan and its a long ways from Wichita Falls. Don’t get wrapped up in all the hype. The new TCU offense will be a mirror image of Michigan’s and you WILL get playing time here instantly. Do the coaches in Ann Arbor even know how to get to Wichita Falls? No they have no idea. They offered just to offer. Don’t let them cloud your vision of being a superstar here at TCU. *See University of Texas if you want an example of players told one thing and receive another. Transferring after finding out too late would really suck and sitting out a year would suck too. Plus, your mom can watch you EVERY SINGLE WEEKEND here in Fort Worth.

Your future biggest fan,

Zammers”

• First things first: it does indeed get cold in Michigan. That may be the only part of the letter that makes sense (then there are the counterarguments of having to play in the cold in the NFL, non-conference CFB games being played in cold weather (or even conference games for about half of the Mountain West), and the fact that summer camp in the south is brutal).
• The new TCU offense will be a mirror image of Michigan’s, eh? Then why would you play at a less prestigious school with a coach who didn’t invent the scheme?
• Instant playing time? Have you seen Michigan’s depth chart? Offering just to offer? I think it might be offering because Michigan needs a good dual-threat QB.
• Superstar at TCU != Superstar at Michigan.
• What does UT have to do with players being told one thing and experiencing another at Michigan? And what, exactly, are you saying that Rich Rodriguez will lie about?

Again, dumb.

Removed:
NV DE Justin Chaisson. Committed to Oklahoma.

Etc.:
A depressing comparison of all the recruits at OSU’s spring game as opposed to Michigan’s. And Alabama’s. How about a hundred at Nebraska?
Freep recruiting articles: Sam Webb, Quarterbacks (albeit with a limited number of targets).
The Columbus Dispatch covers Michigan recruiting. Please, try to convince me they don’t have a complex of some sort.
MVictors covers the kickoff the The Official Rich Rodriguez Whirlwind Tour.

Posted under Recruiting

Homer Ferguson from the site I referenced earlier today about Jelani Jenkins sent me an e-mail explaining what I didn’t get the first time around:

Jelani Jenkins was a UVa lean, but his teammate Caleb Porzel decommitted about a week ago. Porzel’s parents got very nervous about the number of kids who Al Groh has brought in who get busted for weed. Also, Mike London was the lead recruiter for that high school, and London left last January to take the head job at Richmond. His first move was to bring in 3 kids from the Peninsula District, which is the hotbed of HS football in the area. UVA never had much luck there because Al Groh doesn’t get along well with the local coaches.

Homer was also kind enough to give his take on Kevin Newsome:

You also referenced Kevin Newsome. Forget it. He’s going to Vah-tech. Michigan doesn’t have a shot in the world. If he commits to Michigan, that means they bought his mama a new house. To get a player out of the 757, you need to get someone with ties to the area or deep, deep pockets (a la Percy Harvin, Chris Bell, Jerod Mayo). WVU hired Chris Beattie who coached Tahj Boyd one year at Landsdown (alma mater of Percy Harvin) and knew Logan Heastie from trying to recruit him to move into Landsdown district. Coach Cav and Coach Newsome from Vah-tech are going to lock Newsome up ASAFP. They thought they could sleep on Boyd because they have his HS coach in their back pocket, but Boyd and Heastie were a combo deal. Heastie wanted to go out of state, and Boyd got mad because Vah-tech wasn’t pushing that hard. But, Coach Cav won’t let that happen with Newsome.

I’m not necessarily sure he is going to be right in the long haul, though I do see VT as one of Newsome’s favorites. However, it’s a bit too impersonal to say Player is from X area, therefore he will attend X State University. Newsome seems to be genuinely interested in Michigan, and they have a real void at his position. We’ll have to see how this one shakes out. Note – I have also heard (secondhand) that VT people think they are fighting an uphill battle for Newsome.

Anyway, thanks a ton to Homer, and make sure you check out his site.

Posted under Recruiting

Full Board.

Recruits at the Spring Game:
Obviously a lower turnout than usual because of a variety of circumstances, but Kevin Newsome, AJ Fenton, Zach Martin, and Henry Conway were all there, along with several 2008 commits and (I believe both of) the 2009 Cass Tech guys.

Added:
IN OL Zach Martin. He was at the spring game, and I believe he got offered.
OH OL Henry Conway. He was at the spring game, and I’ve heard he was an impressive physical specimen.

New Information:
PA DE Tahir Basil visits PSU and Rutgers.
MN WR Fritz Rock Florida visit.
MD LB Jelani Jenkins probably won’t go to UVa. I do not follow this post’s logic at all, so help me out if you get it.

Etc.: Freep C”>Spring Game Article. Ranking the BCS coaches. Much more Spring Game stuff up later today or tomorrow, including video.

Posted under Recruiting

Boardasaurus Rex. Big Spring Practice stuff tomorrow (will Michigan get a commit? I wuldn’t be surprised, but I’m not expecting it). Don’t forget to drop your questions in the comments for the post below.

Added:
VA RB David Wilson. A weird message board post from his coach(?) says he has received a Michigan offer.
TX QB Shavodrick Beaver. He now has a Michigan offer, and is liking the Wolverines. Also, he will face Tyrik Rollison’s Sulphur Springs team hopefully on ESPN2 this fall.

New Information:
Eugene Smith has reportedly been offered.
Chris Freeman. More basketball information. Seriously, what?
Stephon Gilmore and Devonte Holloman visit South Carolina.
Corey Adams and Devon Kennard visit Arizona State.
MD CB Travis Hawkins plans to enroll early.
Removed:
Ain’t Nobody

Etc.:
Colin Cowherd had many positive thoughts about Rich Rodriguez on Wednesday, basically stating that snake oil and wizard hats are boss. (Link for those with Insider). Jake Long may go first in the Draft.

Posted under Recruiting

Since a flurry of updates over the past couple weeks, it’s been 5 days since the last recruiting update. Once everything settles down a bit more (i.e. no commitments), I plan to probably do 2 updates a week. The collaborative board with MGoBlog is still in the works; I’ll give an update to you when I know more about it. For all the info, make sure you visit the recruiting board. I may be adding an all-star game field to the board soon, so readers will know which Michigan prospects are headed to the Army game or the ESPNU game.

Added:
MD RB Tavon Austin. He now sports a Michigan offer.
SC QB Stephon Gilmore. He has been offered by Michigan.
FL S Jonathan Scott. He has reportedly been offered by Michigan.
MD CB Travis Hawkins. Reporting a Michigan offer.
(The last two pieces of information come from Scout articles, but the information itself is apparent from the headlines).

New Information:
SC DE Chris Bonds will officially visit Michigan.
FL WR Nu’Keese Richardson video.
AZ DE Devon Kennard fluff.
OK RB David Oku. Has a Brightcove video diary. Entry 1. Entry 2.
IL OL Chris Watt’s older brother Kevin plays for Northwestern.
IN QB Jordan Luallen has GT as his favorite (premium article, but the info is in the headline).

Removed:
PA WR Je’Ron Stokes. He has committed to Tennessee.
TX S Craig Loston has officially narrowed his choices down to Clemson and LSU.

Posted under Recruiting

The first question comes from RJ, who you may remember from the last edition of Mailbag:

The University has been fairly consistent about being against night games. With Rich Rod as coach might that change?

The University has indeed had a pretty consistent aversion to playing games under the lights. Lloyd Carr’s Wolverines never played a home game with a start later than 4:30, whereas Rich Rodriguez’s Mountaineers played night games regularly. This may give the impression that it was Carr preventing the team from taking the field at 7 or 8 PM. However, I think it was the athletic administration, rather than the football staff, that was preventing this.

AD Bill Martin has stated several reasons for wanting to not play a night game, and the retirement of Lloyd Carr didn’t really change any of them. Some of the reasons include:

• Alumni pressure. A lot of the older alums really want to be able to get in bed by 8, rather than sitting down in the Big House. Luxury boxes and indoor club seating might make night games a little more appealing to elderly fans.
• Curbing all-day drinking. If people wake up at 7 to tailgate for a noon football game, they get very drunk. If they wake up at 7 to tailgate for a football game that is more than 12 hours away, they get very very drunk. This is a public safety issue, and the administration doesn’t really want to get involved with that.
• Wanting to allow Michigan fans to drive home while it is still light out. Afternoon starts don’t really avoid this, and a lot of people live far enough away that they may end up driving in the dark anyway (especially with post-game traffic).
• No permanent lighting in Michigan Stadium. The portable lighting that has to be brought in for later games (which is paid for by the networks, not the school, in case you were interested) is both a hassle and a poor solution that doesn’t adequately light to playing field. With the stadium renovations, there will be footings for lights, but according to Dave Ablauf, still no permanent fixtures. However, the footings will allow for better lighting in the future.

In the first year, there is almost no chance of a night game, especially with the stadium renovations ongoing. However, with an enthusiastic young coach, and ever-increasing money to be made from TV, night games are something that it may be possible to see down the road.

The next question comes from an anonymous commenter who asks:

tim, i apppreciate the work you put into this blog. it is very well done. do you think that msu will keep both of their backs. i have to believe that one of them will bail.

Well, a lot of the players that are currently committed to the Spartans are not that highly regarded. I doubt State would lose Maxwell, Spencer, or Treadwell to a less prestigious program. That leaves the following three prospects:

Edwin Baker RB 5*, 5-11, 200, 4.40
Baker’s recruitment had been pretty quiet until he committed to State. Michigan has offered him, though the offer didn’t come until he was already a Spartan. It does not seem like he is probably going to stick with State, though I would be VERY surprised if he is the #2 running back in the country come February (I’ll even be mildly surprised if he ends up with all 5 of those stars).

Chris Norman LB 4* 6-2, 200, 4.60
Norman had seemed pretty open, and perhaps even leaning towards Michigan. Then State offered, and he committed abruptly. If you had asked this question a while back, I would have said he was a strong candidate for decommitment. However, with each day that passes by, it seems less and less likely that the Spartans lose his pledge.

Larry Caper RB 4* 5-11, 210, 4.41
Caper seems like the most likely of Michigan State’s verbals to leave the recruiting class. He committed to the Spartans before Baker (a more highly-ranked player) did, and though he says all the right things about not being scared off, the dread spectre of sitting on the bench has to be at least somewhat disheartening. However, State did do a god job splitting time between many guys last year (Jevon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick each had more than 220 carries), though they probably should have run it more, i.e. when it could have won them the Champs Sports Bowl. Caper’s favorites prior to his commitment had been Michigan State, Notre Dame, and Michigan, and with Charlie Weis’s cupboard currently bare, he might pursue Caper pretty heavily.

As always, thanks for the questions guys. Keep sending them in and I’ll keep answering to the best of my ability.

Etc.: Texas quarterback GJ Kinne has announced that he will transfer. No word yet on whether this will affect the decision of Sherrod Harris, another ‘Horns backup who was considering a transfer (with Michigan as a potential destination).

Posted under Analysis, Mail Bag, Recruiting