Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on Florida Gulf Coast University tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game is not on television, but can be seen on BigTenNetwork.com

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison  (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!

So, uh, yeah. Florida Gulf Coast isn’t exactly what you’d call a “great team.” The only areas in which they have an advantage over Michigan are those you’d expect: Rebounding and Michigan getting to the line. With a perimeter-oriented zone-defense team, Michigan can give that up.Pomeroy predicts an 82-54 win for Michigan.

Michigan’s effective field goal percentage is strongly correlated with their offensive efficiency, and FGCU’s ability to restrict opponents’ eFG% is correlated with their defensive efficiency. Considering Michigan was one ranking away from having an advantage of 100 places over FGCU, I’d say it looks to be a good offensive day for Michigan. Without needing to get to the rack to score, I doubt Michigan will spend much of the day driving the lane. Florida Gulf Coast’s offense doesn’t appear to rely on hanging onto the ball, and that’s a good thing for them: they’re terrible at doing so. Look for Michigan to exploit FGCU turnovers, hopefully leading to a lot of fast breaks.

Finally, and most importantly, Reed Baker returns to Crisler Arena. The Rainmaker is second on the team in minutes played, shooting 41.2 eFG% from the floor, and has nailed 84.8% of his free throws. Guard Delvin Franklin and Wing Derrick O’Neil are the stars for FGCU, and Rainmaker plays a key supporting role.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Since I plan (hope) to do something a little more in-depth about this game as an experiment, I’ll just give a few brief thoughts on the game.

LLP

He can definitely shoot the open three. He was 4-6 from behind the arc, though the first few looks he got were wide, wide open. He only played 16 minutes (6th on the team), which was probably a good way to ease him in. What I thought was more interesting was the fact that he never played at the 1 spot. Going in, most observers thought he’d be taking away point guard minutes from former walkon David Merritt, while leaving Kelvin Grady’s playing time intact. Instead, LLP took away minutes from former walkon CJ Lee, and maybe Jevohn Shepherd.

Personnel

“How did he take away time from Jevohn Shepherd?” you may ask. Perhaps it actually had nothing to do with the availability of Laval, but this game, the coaches went a with a very small lineup very often. Grady or Merrit played the 1 spot, and two other shooting guards were on the court at the same time. Somehow, having Stu Douglass and Zack Novak on the court at the same time failed to rip a hole in the space-time continuum. Regardless, this was an intereting lineup choice, and it will be interesting to see whether it is something the coaches see as being viable in the long-term, or if it was a one-time (or few-time) deal against a particular weakness they saw in Oakland. Also, Anthony Wright didnt’ play a second in this game. That can only be construed as a good thing.

Rebounding

Michigan actually managed to out-rebound the Golden Grizzlies, which is an encouragin sign. Not only did Oakland have a fairly large lineup (especially when they played 7-footer Ilja Milutinovic), but Michigan went with a small lineup for much of the game. When you look at the rebounds that went through players’ hands (hopefully bad luck, rather than a pattern), there is even more room for improvement here, which could certainly aid the fortune of Michigan down the line, as Beilein’s teams have never rebounded all that well, and it would be a boon if they could.

Manny & DeShawn

Harris had a quiet first half, not scoring at all. He came back in the second half to notch 15 points, but it wasn’t his scoring that made Manny important in this game. He notched 13 assists without a single turnover. He had 6 rebounds, making him 4 away from a triple-double. If this is considered an “off night” for Manny, imagine what he can be when he is truly on. I think in the future, the role players are going to continue stepping up, so Manny doesn’t have to take control in every game. That said, he will still be capable of doing so when his team needs him. DeShawn Sims, on the other hand, produced consistently throughout the game, and scored a game-high 20 points. He still had a slightly slow first half, and again the role players proved they can help the team survive slumps by the stars.

Etc.

Was it just me, or did the rims in the Palace seem reallllly soft? There were a few times where shots just died on the rim, and then fell in. There were some really ridiculous bounces on free throws that ended up dropping in as well.

The refs were crappy (as they so often are). Of course, it may be my bias speaking, but I thought a slight majority of the poor calls went against Michigan. When I watch the game more closely, I reserve the right to change my mind.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

On Saturday at 6, Michigan will return to the hardcourt, this time taking on the Golden Grizzlies of Oakland at the Palace of Auburn Hills. How do the teams match up? Let’s take a look at the tempo-free analysis and Pomeroy Ratings (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!

Things look to be pretty slanted in Michigan’s favor, and Pomeroy’s prediction agrees: he sees Michigan winning 79-64 in a 62-possession game. According to Ken, the Wolverines have a 92% chance of winning.

One thing to look for in this game: Oakland’s defensive efficiency is correlated with how well opponents shoot the ball, and Michigan’s offensive efficiency is strongly correlated with how well they shoot the ball. Looking at the chart above, Michigan looks to have a good shooting night against the Grizzlies – which can help lead them to victory.

Oakland’s key players are point guards Johnathon Jones and Eric Kangas, along with big man (6-11) Keith Benson. Jones almost never comes off the court (2nd nationally in minutes played), and he and Kangas account for much of the team’s offense – including Jones leading the squad in assists. Benson has gone to the stripe 48 times this year (perhaps because he is only making 62.5% of free throws), and is shooting .575 from the field.

One other thing to keep in mind: the Oakland game will also be the debut of one Laval Lucas-Perry in a Michigan uniform. It should be interesting to see how LLP affects the overall chemistry and production of the team. One thing is for sure: It will be nice to have another solid combo guard to fill in at the 1 & 2 spots, decreasing the minutes that are occupied by former walk-ons.

Go Blue!

Posted under Analysis, Basketball, Other Sports

At some point during the first half of the basketball game against Duke, I decided that I was going to go to the basketball game against Eastern Michigan.  As opposed to previous years, I have actually enjoyed watching this team play.  They are generally likeable players who are well coached and play hard for the entire game.  I remember watching the teams with Horton, Hunter, Abrams, among others, trying to win games and do well, but failed by their coach.  Watching Tommy Amaker stand there and wave his finger as though that meant anything other than pass it around the perimeter then let Horton make a huge play was one of the most frustrating things to watch.

I saw flashes of the Beilein system last year and was really excited for the season this year.  This year with only a few new contributors (Novak and Douglass) Beilein has made this into a very entertaining and, more importantly,  competative team.  I’m committed now to attend as many games as I can.  Tim is probably going to head to the Big Ten Championship.  This is almost exclusively the result of Beilein’s coaching.  He has, in less time than I ever thought possible, made Michigan Basketball relevant on campus again.  Now there’s a plan for a new practice facility going before the Regents in January.  This is a program on the rise, and I can see Beilein getting Michigan getting this team all the way with the right personnel and a bit of luck.

Eastern Michigan Specifically

• The attendance was actually fairly impressive for a game where most of the students are either home or studying for exams.  Granted the fact that the “away” team was a defacto second home team and student tickets are free, but no way would this game be that well attended last year.
• It was kind of weird that they never announced at the game that Beilein wasn’t there.  I didn’t know until someone texted me.
• If you told me that Manny Harris would be held to 2 points in the first half and DeShawn Sims wasn’t all that effective either, no way I would have guessed that Michigan would have a 10 point lead.
• No one can stay in front of Kelvin Grady.  I actually look forward to seeing teams trying to press him.
• Manny Harris has this ability to get wherever he wants on the floor whenever he wants.  It’s a bit absurd how he can knife through  the defense.  It wasn’t just against Eastern, either; he was able to do it against UCLA and Duke.
• Jevohn Shepherd may be my favorite player on the team.  He doesn’t have the tools of Sims or Harris, but he’s gone from being an afterthought to a very solid contributor.  He even carried the team a while in the first half.
• The biggest applause of the game was when Lloyd Carr walked in during half time.

Posted under Basketball

With Michigan’s basketball team attaining a new standard of relevance, it’s easy to see how Wolverines fans are already prognosticating a run to the NCAA tournament. Wins over UCLA and Duke are certainly a stepping stone towards achieving that goal, but there is still work to be done. Let’s see what Michigan has to do to make it into the Big Dance. Sagarin Ratings are little more than a rough draft at this point, but they give us some idea of the relative strengths of the teams.

The wins over UCLA and Duke were certainly not expected, and one could easily maintain that Michigan has done better through the first part of its schedule than could possibly have been expected. Salvaging the win over Savannah State was key. Had Michigan been able to top Maryland on the road (and, in all honesty, they should have), we’d be looking at a pretty highly-ranked team right now.

The remaining four games before the start of the conference schedule are all must-wins. Even with some good victories under their belt, the Wolverines would be devastated by a loss to any of these teams. The mid-year tilt with UConn looks like a loss this early in the year, but who knows where the teams will be come February?

Going into the conference schedule, it loks like Michigan will have a 10-2 record (and will and with a 10-3 non-conference record overall). The conference predictions are little more than guesses at this point, because it’s hard to tell this early in the season exactly how good all these teams are. Regardless, I project Michigan to be 17-8 (7-5) with 6 in-conference toss-ups. They would likely need to win at least two of those toss-ups, but preferably three to bring them to 20-11 (10-8). This would nearly assure them a bid to the NCAA tournament, especially if combined with a win or two in the Big Ten Tourney. 19-12 (9-9) would likely necessitate a couple wins in the Big Ten Tournament to warrant an NCAA bid.

Of course, Michigan will overachieve at times, and likely underachieve at others. The key is to minimize bad losses, and win most of the games that they should. Combined with the possibility for an upset or two, they should be able to make the tournament.

Another key will be closing the season strong. Unlike college football, finishing the regular season strong is an established criterion for selection to the NCAA tournament. With a likely loss and three tossups in the final four regular-season games, Michigan will have to find a way to win a couple of those tossups to warrant strong consideration.

Posted under Basketball

Tim bought tickets for the Duke game on a whim earlier this year. Before the season started, we figured it would at least be a big game with national coverage. After the UCLA game, it started to look like it might be winnable. After the first Duke game, we figured the team could at least make a game of it.

I haven’t been to that many basketball games, but this was the best crowd I have ever seen at Crisler. There were times that it was absolutely ready to explode, but it rarely got to that next, euphoric level. There was a Novak three point attempt that just rimmed out, a Manny Harris missed dunk (which was a horrible no call), and a lot of other times Duke was able to come down and get a big basket. I know Tim and I felt impending doom, and it seemed like the crowd as a whole had that feeling. We all wanted to believe, but Michigan could never pull away and Duke kept hitting big shots.

What I thought really showed that this team has really gotten to the “next level” was the start of the second half. Duke went on a run and there were a 3 or 4 calls that went against Michigan (not all of them “bad” calls, but rather calls that could reasonably be no-calls). Duke got a bit of a lead and the “here we go again” feeling started setting in. Then, Michigan went on their own run. Novak hit a monster three-pointer from both corners, and Manny was able to knife through Duke’s defense and get to the basket. Suddenly Michigan was up 5 or so. Watching the Maryland game, I kept thinking that all they needed was a basket, stop and a basket to have a chance at winning that game. They weren’t able to do that, but at home, against Duke, they pulled together and stopped the run and put together one of their own. Duke didn’t seem to play particularly poorly either. They ran their offense efficiently and looked decent on defense.

A few random things:

• Manny Harris can’t be stopped. He seems to be able to get to the basket at will, regardless of who he’s playing against.
• DeShawn Simms was on fire in the first half and came up with some big offensive rebounds in the second half.
• Zack Novak is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. He is absolutely fearless shooting the ball.
• Did Anthony Wright even take a shot? Weird…
• I feel comfortable with Kelvin Grady breaking any press that’s thrown at him. He has great speed and some nice moves. He just needs to finish more consistently. He was clutch at the end.
• Rushing the court at the end of the game is completely acceptable. Tim and I didn’t participate (we were in the nosebleeds), but this is one of the biggest wins in the post-sanctions era.
• I wish I could have heard the interview between Bilas and Beilein. Awkward! The shot was absolutely awesome with Beilein in front of a bunch of crazy fans. Maybe this is a result of blogging, but our first thought was “this will be awesome for recruiting”

Posted under Basketball

Matt Vogrich, a 6-3 shooting guard from Illinois, has pledged his word to become a Michigan Wolverines. Vogrich is Scout’s #100 player in the class of 2009. Vogrich joins Darius Morris and Jordan Morgan in MIchigan’s 2009 recruiting haul.

Vogrich visited Michigan this weekend, and enjoyed himself enough to offer a commitment to John Beilein and the Michigan Wolverines. For more information on Vogrich (and much better basketball coverage than I could ever provide), head over to UMHoops.com.

Posted under Basketball

Basketball target Darius Morris plans to announce his college decision tomorrow.

Morris attended Michigan summer camp, and sources have indicated that he will pick Michigan. If he does, the first piece to John Beilein’s recruiting plan will have landed, and the road will be paved for future recruiting classes.

Posted under Basketball

Max Pacioretty, Michigan Hockey forward, has decided to forgo his remaining three years of eligibility and sign with the Montreal Canadiens. Pacioretty’s departure means that Chris Summers will likely move to forward.

Robin Benzing, a signee in the 2008 class for John Beilein’s basketball squad, has been denied initial eligibility by the NCAA. This means that Michigan will likely refocus its recruiting efforts for future seasons, though there will be little effect on this year’s team. Even if Benzing was eventually allowed to play, he was expected to have to sit out the 2008-09 season.

Posted under Basketball, Hockey

The NCAA published its Academic Progress Rate reports yesterday, and Michigan has a clean bill of health. All scores were above the penalty cutoff of 925, and three sports (both genders of golf and women’s tennis) recorded perfect scores of 1000.

Since Michigan’s main sports have been so attrition-y lately, let’s see if they are in danger for next year (when players who left the program this year will count against APR).

Football’s score was 951. In the past year, the team has lost Adrian Arrington and Mario Manningham to the NFL. Arrington was a fourth-year junior, and probably graduated prior to leaving Michigan. Manningham may have been enough of an academic liability to hurt APR next year. To transfers, Michigan has lost Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) and Justin Boren (Ohio State). I know nothing of their academic prowess, though I would assume that at least Boren was in good standing when he left. Several players have also left the team for other reasons. If Johnny Sears doesn’t hurt the APR, I’ll be shocked. Alex Mitchell and Jeremy Ciulla are the only other two that spring immediately to mind, and I know nothing of their academics either.

Basketball’s score was 927, dangerously close to sanctions. With all the people that left the program (Kendric Price, Jerret Smith, Ekpe Udoh, K’Len Morris), I wouldn’t be surprised if the team at least gets a warning for next year. At least they’re not completely toast like Indiana, already below the cutoff, and going downhill with lots of attrition in this offseason.

Posted under Basketball