The shooting data can be founf in .xls format here, and the differential data can be found in the multi-game UFR post from earlier this week.

Individual Players

Not a bad shooting game, but holy hell look at that terrible differential number.

Didn’t get very much run at all. Had 1 legit and 1 crap moving screen go against him in the first half, and I think the foul trouble and the shaken confidence it gave him combined to keep him from playing too much.

His shooting wasn’t particularly bad, especially considering many of those misses in the paint should have been called fouls, but he made some really bad decisions. Way too many “1”s.

grumble grumble running set plays for CJ to shoot 3s grumble grumble. Also, the shifts in which he didn’t play were ALL positive except for one.

Had a pretty good differential, but missed a few shots that he had absolutely no business missing. I’m coming to realize that he should be utilized more as a slasher in addition to a shooter (a role in which he’s recently struggled). And no, I’m not kidding.

Man, if this guy could just shoot as well every game as he did against Minnesota.

Surprisingly, he was one of the few people not in on a negative shift. Of course, that is largely because he barely played at al..

Was a victim of the poor officiating (though not nearly as much as Manny), but other than that, had a lackluster day.

grumble don’t shoot grumble. Played decently enough.

DNP – coach’s decision.

On the Officiating

After people’s reactions in the comments, I thought I might have been a bit harsh in my criticism of the officiating in this game. Upon further Review, I’m even madder than before. Of course, bad calls went both ways, but Michigan by far got the shorter end of the stick. I don’t want to become a boy who cried wolf, so I’m going to refrain from mntioning officiating in the future unless it’s particularly egregious (as it was in this game), but I stand by my previous comments that this game was one of the most poorly reffed I’ve seen all year – and that’s saying something.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball, Hockey, Misc.

I haven’t had a chance to re-watch and score the data for these three games, but that shouldn’t prevent me from posting the (admittedly late) differential data. When I get a chance to grade the shooting, I’ll post those up as well.

Iowa

Half 1

Half 2

OT

Purdue

Half 1

Half 2

Wisconsin

Half 1

Half 2

Individual differentials will be posted when I get the shooting data up; for now you can add them up yourself if you’re so inclined.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

In a way, the game against Wisconsin on Sunday showed how similar to the 2008 football team John Beilein’s squad really is: there were flashes of brilliance, and certainly lots of reason to be hopeful for the future. However, despite a few good players, the team simply doesn’t have enough quality depth to win many of the games in which they come close. Unlike the football team though, it was slow starts and not-strong-enough finishes that doomed the team against the Badgers.

There were also similarities to the Michigan basketball teams under Tommy Amaker, in which the offense was disjointed for too long, and several possessions ended with a hopeless three thrown up to beat the buzzer.That contrasted with many other possessions, to be fair, in which the crisp passes and cuts opened up enormous shooting lanes for open threes or layups.

The refereeing was inconsistent yet again (as it seemingly always is), though it wasn’t bad enough that I think it was a huge factor in Michigan’s losing the game, unlike the contest against Iowa.

The Wolverines are good, but they just aren’t good enough to win a game like this… yet. However, they are good enough to win a game on the road against Minnesota, and they’ll need to do just that on Saturday in order to keep the dreams of returning to the tournament alive.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Badgers of Wisconsin at 2PM today (Eastern time, 1PM local). The game can be seen live from the Kohl Center on the Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

The slide began. The Wolverines dropped a 12-point game on their home floor, in which Zack Novak was easily the team’s MVP. Michigan was down the entire game, and by double digits through most of the second half. The game was at least as much of a blowout as the final score indicated.

Since Last We Met…

The Wolverines’ once-sure tourney bid has declined into a bubble that has moved inches closer to bursting ever since the demoralizing Badger loss. The team has struggled on offense since losing to Wisconsin, and instead has recently re-invented itself as something of a defensive unit (maybe not a stellar one, but good enough to win some games). Good wins like Illinois and Purdue have been interspersed with losses like Iowa and near-losses like Indiana. A 10-2 start has turned into an 8-9 slide ever since.

Wisconsin started out the season very strongly, but has also gone on something of a slide lately. They seem to have turned it around as a 6-game losing streak flipped over to a 5-game winning streak before succumbing to the Spartans a week ago in their last outing.

And…?

Both teams need this win to enhance their tournament resumes. If Michigan can come away with a big road win, they might be just one win in the Big Ten Tournament away from clinching their first ticket to the Big Dance since 1998. The Badgers are in similar situation, and have the home-court advantage in this one, a big advantage. Wisconsin is now solidly in the tournament, but a losing streak to end the season could be devastating.

KenPom predicts a 66-58 Wisconsin win in a 58-possession game. He gives Michigan just a 20% chance of emerging with the win in the Kohl Center.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

A pretty active day on offense. Did a lot of work on the fast break, as well.

Didn’t play too much, but made the most of his offensive opportunities.

Not a great day, but had his moments.

Had a few turnovers late in the game, and didn’t shoot particularly well.

Hardly played at all.

On fire all day.

Didn’t play much, and was pretty much the only guy in negative differential.

DeShawn wasn’t really the featured player on this day. He shot a bunch from midrange, but didn’t make as many of them as he usually would.

Handled the ball well enough to not be a liability.

Stepped up and got some significant playing time for the first time in a while.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Michigan 87, Purdue 78. And it wasn’t even that close.

The TV where I watched the game tonight had a terrible picture. The score was virtually incomprehensible all game, I couldn’t tell whether it was Laval Lucas-Perry or DeShawn Sims playing defense, and I undoubtedly missed several interpretive dances from Ed Hightower.

Somehow, that made it make more sense.

The Michigan Wolverines, losers in an embarrassing game at Iowa, in which (in my admittedly biased opinion, of course) the referees essentially decided the game with inconsistent officiating in the last minute of regulation, beat a top 25 team yet again. The Purdue Boilermakers, who escaped with a win against Michigan in their home arena thanks in part to an egregiously bad call against Manny Harris, fell to the Wolverines by a margin of 9 points, and the margin really felt much further apart. I don’t mean to make this post entirely about officiating in other games, because the Wolverines’ performance shouldn’t be diminished by focusing on things outside their control, much less those that happened days or even weeks ago.

DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris were the players we all know they can be tonight, and though Manny still wasn’t getting the calls that Michigan fans think he should be getting, the team leaders, both from Detroit (where John Beilein clearly will never be able to recruit), were able to put up big numbers against the Boilermakers and lead their team to victory. The role players, who until now have been taking turns with huge games, were able to each step up enough without any one player going ballistic from long range.

Michigan is back on the bubble, and Purdue’s chances of winning the Big Ten are reduced to basically zero. These stakes were set before the game, and Michigan was able to use the motivation to come away with a huge road win against a top-25 team, and Purdue was sent home knowing they heavily rely on Michigan State to choke in order to even have a chance to take the regular-season crown.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Purdue tonight at 9PM. The game takes place in Crisler Arena (if you have the opportunity, go. I’m sue there are plenty of tickets available) and can be seen on ESPN.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Ridiculous Manny Harris ejection, team loses composure and game.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has had spurts of brilliance (of course, most of them didn’t result in wins) and not-so-brilliance. Purdue has kept chugging along, getting away with being cheap players defensively, and have beaten up on some fairly high-quality teams, like Michigan State.

The Wolverines have pretty much maintain their rankings in tempo-free land from the previous meeting, and Purdue has gotten a little better offensively, while maintaining their lofty defensive standing.

And…?

I predict pain. The first half of the away game with Purdue should serve as an encouraging sign, but I question this team’s mental state following the Iowa debacle. A loss tonight would pretty much ensure a need to win multiple games in the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the Big Dance. Otherwise, reserve those NIT tickets.

KenPom predicts a 64-61 Purdue win in a 65-possession game.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Following Michigan’s official-aided choke job in Iowa City last night, the chances of this edition of the Michigan Wolverines are all but eliminated. Of course, if the Wolverines were to go on a run to end the season, taking at least 2 of the last 3 and one in the Big Ten Tournament, they would have a very legitimate argument. However, Last night’s game was considered a must-win because it was the only likely win left on the year. How did it happen?

Michigan actually got pretty good shooting throughout the first half, and in spurts during the second. When David Merritt hit two 3-pointers in one game, I thought the fates were smiling upon Michigan. Then, Manny Harris gets an egregious no-call with under a minute left, followed up with an egregiously bad call against DeShawn Sims on the rebound. Iowa is able to tie the game with free throws, and take it to overtime. Once they got there, hot shooting from them, and poor shooting from Michigan, aided in large part due to Manny Harris’s being benched (more on that later) and poor shot selection, led to a Hawkeye victory.

Officiating
I honestly don’t know what Manny Harris did to just about every referee in the Big Ten (and nation), but nobody is officiated more unfairly (at least in a negative way) than Harris. He can’t draw a blocking foul to save his life, as evidenced by perhaps the worst-called charging foul of Michigan’s season, when Iowa’s defender wasn’t even remotely close to being in position, and what should have been an and-1 for Harris turned into a 3-pointer for Iowa on the other end, keeping the Hawkeyes in the first half early. A similarly awful no-call happened near the end of regulation, where Harris was completely mugged going to the rack, and even Iowa fans were completely dumbfounded that there was no call. Compounding the incompetency of the officials, they called a horrid foul on DeShawn Sims (instead of what should have been a jump ball), effectively handing the game on a plate to Iowa.

Of course, officials aren’t perfect, and the Wolverines het their share of bad calls as well, but it’s the impact of the calls that go against Michigan that has killed us this year. The charge on Harris changed the game, because if it was called as it (quite obviously) should have been, Michigan starts turning that game into a blowout. The no-call and bad call at the end of regulation decided who would win the game, something that shouldn’t have happened. When bad calls go both ways, but the bad calls against Michigan effectively render the best player on the floor useless, it’s going to hurt one team far more than the other.

As for the “don’t whine about the officials, because the game shouldn’t have been that close in the first place” argument, that’s bullshit. Things happen that cause games to be close, even when they shouldn’t be (and let’s not forget that one call fairly early in the game likely dictated that it would be a close one). Regardless of whether the game “should” be close or not, it was. The officials, through their incompetence, then decided who would win the game. That’s unfair, either way.

Harris Benched in OT
Manny sat on the bench through the entire overtime period, leading to rampant speculation among Michigan fans and even the announce team for BTN. Nobody really knows the true answer, except it probably had something to do with a) Manny being ineffective late in regulation b) Manny saying something unwise towards John Beilein c) Manny feeling like he couldn’t contribute to the team, and/or d) Beilein feeling like Manny couldn’t contribute to the team.

Before all the armchair coaches slam Beilein for “the worst coaching decision of his career,” think about that. His career spans every single level of basketball, and multiple decades as a head coach. He knows more about basketball than any of you. He probably knows more about basketball than most of you put together. Dude knows what he’s doing, and you don’t. End of Story.

The Upshot
As mentioned above, Michigan’s bubble status has moved from “likely to be in” to “in big trouble.” The game against Purdue is one of the last chances to prove they belong, and the final two road games are important as well. This team is growing, and there is no reason to give up on them now. They weren’t expected to make the tournament when the season began (perhaps not even the postseason), so even if they fall to the NIT, I know I’ll be in Crisler Arena, cheering my ass off for them. Will You?

Minnesota and Iowa UFRs (perhaps abbreviated) coming later this week.

Posted under Basketball

Also available on MGoBlog and UMHoops. Things should get rolling shortly before the game begins.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tonight at the awkward start time of 5PM. The game takes place in Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Cyrus Tate didn’t play for the Hawkeyes, and the Wolverines left Crisler Arena with a dominating victory. Manny was Manny, DeShawn was DeShawn, and this was one of the first glimpses that Michigan fans got of CJ Lee-as-defensive-specialist, a role that has seen his playing time increse dramatically over the last few games. The roleplayer that stepped up in that game was Zack Novak, who drilled a few shots from the outside, and did his scrappy undersized white guy thing. The final score of 64-49 was even a little closer than the game felt.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s offense has been on a fairly continuous downward spiral. Part of that is better competition, and part of it is simply a young team with very little depth. Two things are encouraging though, and they are an improvement on defense and a stellar offensive performance against Minnesota, a team that has relied on its own defense lately. If the offensive renaissance can become a trend, rather than a one-time deal, Michigan fans will feel much better about the rest of the season.

Iowa has gotten slightly worse in most respects, largely due to Cyrus Tate’s continued absence from the team. Tate played some minutes in Iowa’s recent game against Purdue, but his ankle is still not nearly 100%, and it’s unclear whether he’ll even play, much less be the effective player he is when healthy. Guard Jeff Peterson has also battled injuries of late, and it’s unclear whether he will play.

And…?

If Tate and Peterson are both out, or even limited in a big way, this is a game the Wolverines have no business losing. Even if the two play, Michigan needs this win for their tournament hopes to stay alive in any big way, while Iowa’s season is mostly lost, unless they can scrape together an NIT bid over their last 5 games.One key factor to note: The Hawkeyes have had 8 days of rest for this game, allowing them to prepare in-depth for anything Michigan might throw at them, and also giving them a little time to get healthy.

Despite Michigan’s (slightly) improved play of late, and Iowa’s implosion (2-9 in their last 11), KenPom predicts a 59-58 Iowa win in a 56-possession game. The stakes are obvious, and Michigan fans should tune in to hopefully watch their Wolverines get one step closer to a return to the NCAA tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball