Just a few quick thoughts about the hoops game. UFR might not be coming until Tuesday-ish because tomorrow is my birthday and I’ll be busy.

1. After the Wisconsin game, I thought the refereeing might have just been coincidentally slanted in favor of Wisconsin. After this game, I’m starting to think that there’s no way a game would be called so poorly unless the refs actually had something out for us. They wouldn’t call absolute muggings on our end of the floor, and then would call the most ticky-tack fouls on the other side.
2. Zack Novak was a real trooper for getting all bloody-like, then getting stitches during the game and being able to come back in before it ended. The #11 jersey is not nearly as awesome though.
3. Zack Gibson can be surprisingly athletic at times. He wasn’t the player of the game today, but Michigan certainly doesn’t win if he isn’t in there. The block on one end (before which the announcers stated Illinois was about to answer Michigan’s basket on the other side), followed shortly thereafter by the drive and dunk was awesome.
4. Manny Harris was back to being effective, and he wasn’t forcing up too many shots this game. I think he will grade out much better in UFR than he did against Wisconsin.
5. After the Wisconsin game, I think a lot of Michigan fans were depressed that it meant we’d have to be nearly perfect the rest of the way to get to the NCAA tournament. After this game, Michigan has shown they can play poorly and still win as long as they step it up in crunch time. There is still plenty of work to do to secure a tournament bid, but this win certainly makes it look a lot less dire.
6. Kelvin Grady made a layup! If he can do that consistently, this team is a lot better.

Anything else I missed?

Posted under Basketball

After several suggestions, I’ve decided to scrap the play-by-play aspect of the UFR feature, and just include the final stats from the game. The raw data is available in .xls format here. Thanks to reader formerlyanonymous for his help, as well.

Half 1

Half 2

Game totals

Individual players:

Manny had a really crappy day. He took it upon himself to carry the team, and he quite frankly couldn’t do it this time. Considering he’s been able to do it consistently to this point in the year, I guess he can get a pass for once.

LLP has gotten praise for being able to hit the open three, but he just couldn’t do it on this day. He forced a bit too.

Novak was the Designated Awesome Freshman on this day, and he was a key player at the beginning of the second half, when Michigan needed to keep it close.

Awful day for DeShawn all over the place. He grabbed four rebounds all game, and none until the second half. He hit his shots, but didn’t take very many of them. I wonder if the ankle injury from Monday hampered, and he also might have been having breathing probles.

Like all the other Wolverines (except maybe Novak), Stu really struggled on this day.

Kelvin got almost no playing time all day (11 minutes), in favor of Dave Merritt. I would have liked to see him play a bit more, considering Michigan needed more playmakers on the floor, and I think his ability to drive might have opened up more shots for his teammates to miss.

At least he didn’t have guards ripping tons of rebounds out of his hands.

Seemed to play more than he has been lately. He didn’t get a lot of offensive opportunity, and he actually seemed to be a calming influence at times when he was in the game.

Not much usage for Dave.

The entire Michigan team struggled, and when you’re a Perimeter Oreiented Team, there are going to be poor shooting days that turn into losses. Of course, the other side of the coin is that hot-shooting days will turn into upsets (see: Duke II) Early in the game, both teams were getting plenty of open looks. The only difference was Michigan’s were long-range (which they subsequently missed) and Wisconsin’s were easy inside looks. Once Wisconsin built up the lead, the game was pretty evenly back-and-forth. DeShawn Sims was completely off today, and I’d like to hope that was because of the ankle injury he sustained against NC Central than an inability to perform against a better team like Wisconsin. Manny was equally frustrating (and frustrated), and he seemed to be trying a little too hard throughout much of the game.

Posted under Basketball, Football

Three years ago Tim and I did a live blog of the basketball game in mid February. This was in the absolute worse part of the program’s malaise. Just to make sure we could get through it all, we got a 24 and located a half full fifth. By the end of the game all the booze was gone and we were hurling expletives and footwear at the Tommy Amaker we saw on TV. Michigan was never in that game and never really had a chance.

This year, Michigan was favored to win by 4 by the statistical guru Ken Pomeroy. Five minutes into the game I was having flashbacks to the game three years ago. The big difference is that this year I believed that Michigan could come back and win.  Ultimately, it wouldn’t happen, but that was mainly due to Wisconsin playing really good basketball and the officials reaffiirming my hatred for NCAA Basketball officials. Of course, we were watching through maize-and-blue-lenses, and there were bad call both way, but when the officiating is inconsistent enough that there are a lot of iffy calls, and random chance results in most of them going against your team, it’s hard not to get frustrated, especially when better officiaiting would have radically changed the outcome of this game.

A note to the color commentator: not calling a foul when Manny Harris gets hacked going to the basket is not “Big Ten Basketball”.  This is especially true when the next the play there’s a ticky-tack foul at the 3pt line.  Unless the color guy meant bad officiating is “Big Ten Basketball.” It’s OK to criticize poor officiating as a color commentator, and the commentary for NCAA BBall is actually even worse than for football (admittedly, our primary sport at VB).

So with that, Michigan faces off against Illinois on Sunday as a home underdog, and the path to the NCAA tournament gets a whole lot more dicey. At this point, the Wolverines can do nothing to help their case but win.

Posted under Basketball, Football

OK, I lied. This will be a 1.1 version (new additions: play-by-play broken up by substitution patterns, added notes for every shot). Hopefully 2.0 (including defensive series, + and – for individual players) will come out after the Wisconsin game. No guarantees on that, however, considering it’s New Year’s Eve.

Beilein clearly wants to have at least one of Sims and Harris on the floor at all times, and preferably both. He probably gave Sims a rest knowing that a TV timeout was approaching, as he reinserts DeShawn after the commercial. When Michigan is baioled out by a foul in a low-clock situation, Harris comes back in as well.

Individual Player Charts:

Grady was cold from 3 after Beilein gave him more minutes in an apparent vote of confidence.

Manny didn’t get going until the second half, for the second game in a row. He was still making his presence felt, but came alive a bit more in the second half.

Almost no shots for CJ, and his only attempt was a blocked putback.

LLP showed he can hit open threes, but did next to nothing in the second half. The missed shot from the lane probably should have been made.

Called on to shoot very little, but made the most of his opportunities.

Again, either he or Douglass gets used a lot in the offense. This time, it was Douglass’s turn.

I think Shepherd is pretty effective when he’s on the floor, just not mostly in terms of his shooting.

I think Shepherd is pretty effective when he’s on the floor, just not mostly in terms of his shooting.

Again, apologies for the delay in getting version 2 of the UFR running. Keep suggesting features for it, and I’ll take them into consideration.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Wisconsin today at 2PM in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

For the first time in a while, Michigan has a distinct deficit in multiple categories. Many of these are predictable for a perimeter-oriented team: Wisconsin is much better at rebounding and Michigan doesn’t get to the free throw line very often. Defensively, Michigan doesn’t force as many turnovers as one might hope to give them an advantage over Wisconsin. This is somewhat odd because the 1-3-1 is designed to force the opponent to give up the ball, but the Wolverines have been going with more man-to-man defense of late, so that may be a partial explanation. Overall, Wisconsin is a well-rounded team, ranking in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Michigan is still the favorite though, and Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-62 Wolverine triumph, with a 70% chance of victory.

In the game plans, the main area that is strongly correlated with both Michigan’s and Wisconsin’s efficiencies is Wolverine effective field goal percentage. Since Michigan has an advantage in it (however slight it may be), the Wolverines may have an advantage in performing well on offense today. The turnover rate for Wisconsin may also play a role. The Badgers have an advantage of nearly 100 places in the national rankings. Regardless, this is definitely the most evenly-matched game Michigan has played in a while.

Of course, with a team in the national spotlight, and one in Michigan’s own conference, the key players will be more known to Wolverines fans, and there are bound to be more of them. Joe Krabbenhoft, Marcus Landry, Trevon Hughes, and Jason Bohannon are all key players for the Badgers. Each has played in at least 73% of available minutes (the next closest player has less than 50%). Landry has star power, and is most mentioned in the national media, but it is Hughes who leads the Badgers in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and free throw rate. The point guard also (obviously) leads the team in assists, and really makes things go for Wisconsin.

This should be the first real test for Michigan in quite some time (since Oakland? Duke even?), and it’s time for the Wolverines to put up or shut up. Has this Michigan team been putting in a lackadaisical effort because they knew they would beat inferior teams anyway? Or are they really just not as good as we think/hope? A big win today would be a great start to making a run through conference season, and hopefully into the tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

So, now I understand why Brian takes a few days to do a football UFR. Basketball games are far less time-consuming, but it’s still ridiculously hard to finish them in any timely fashion.

The NC Central UFR will come tom orrow sometime, followed by the Wisconsin preview. The NCC UFR is also going to be a 1.1 version, rather than a 2.0. Apologies for the delay, and hopefully once I get into the groove of trying to hammer them out, I’ll be able to complete them in a much quicker manner.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on winless North Carolina Central tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

NC Central is dead-last in the KenPom ratings, so its entirely understandable that Michigan has pretty significant advantages in every area. The Wolverines have their first 4-letter advantage of the year, and it’s in an important category: their offensive efficiency against NCC’s defensive efficiency. The only areas in which Michigan has just one-letter advantages are turnover rate on offense, defensive rebounding (astoundingly, they have more than 100 places in separation between the teams in Michigan’s offensive rebounding), and free throw rate on offense. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 96-41 Wolverines victory, with 0% chance of an upset in a 66-possession game.

Taking a look at the game plans, Michigan’s effective field goal percentage against NC Central’s defense should be a good indicator of how the team’s overall offensive performance will go. Considering Michigan has a huge advantage in that area, it should be a good day for the Michigan offense. On paper, this looks to be a great offensive day for Michigan. The one area NCC is fairly good in is blocking opponents’ shots, but that will likely not play a huge role against a perimeter-shooting team like the Wolverines.

NCC has three key players, all of whom have played more than 80% of the possible minutes so far this year. Stevy Worah-Ozimo is the tallest player on the team at 6-9. He is the team’s center, and hasn’t attempted a three-point shot yet this year. Freshman Jamar Briscoe is a Grady-sized (5-10) point guard, and leads the team in assists. The other key player is Vincent Davis, who, at 6-2, would normally be considered a guard, but he may be more of a wing player on such a size-challenged team (3rd shortest in Division I, ahead of only Nebraska and SIU-Edwardsville, the second of which I believe is a data-entry error). The rest of the minutes are filled fairly evenly by the other 5 players on the team.

With the gaps in talent and depth between these teams, it would be surprising if NC Central gave MIchigan much of a game. Of course, stranger things have happened, so be sure to check out the game at 7 tonight on BTN. If nothing else, it should provide an opportunity to see Michigan look like world-beaters.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

OK, obviously this is very early in a development stage, but I’d like to get it published for the sake of soliciting comments and suggestions from readers. Of course, the inspiration comes from MGoBlog’s UFR of football games. Down the line (likely in the next edition of UFR, unless people don’t like it enough to justify continuing the feature), I plan to add defensive possessions, and certainly have the “notes” section be a bit more thorough (notice that the later in the game this UFR goes, the more notes there are). To split it up a bit, the next one will be put into groups by personnel (which would be the “drives” in Brian’s football UFRs). This first edition grades only the shots taken by Michigan, which I hope to expand to entire possessions in the future.

The very beginnings of this started with the box score, then I sort of filled in the details watching the game. The “Score” colmun indicates the score of the game prior to the shot in question being taken. Shooter, Assist, and Made should be self-evident. The assister is unofficial (i.e. not from the box score), but taken from watching the game. Range indicates where the shot was taken from. Currently, it’s only divided into 3-pt, mid-range, and lane, but I’m certainly open to tweaking those indications. Quality is the only  entirely subjective measure on my part, and indicates how open the shooter is. “3” is a shot that is wide open, and not contested at all. “0” is a shot that is blocked, and has no chance of going in. “1” is a well-defended shot with a hand in the face, and “2” is in between 1 and 3, predictably.

Shot quality shows multiple aspects of a player’s game. First, a guy who shoots a lot of “3” shots either can create his own shot, or only shoots when he is wide open. A guy like Manny, on the other hand, will shoot (and make) a lot of “1”s and “2”s. Players who are shooting “1”s from three-point range are probably making poor decisions, unless the shot clock or other factors are coming into play. Shooting “1”s from the paint is more forgiveable, because there is a much better likelihood of getting fouled. It is also more acceptable to miss “1”s and “2”s. If a guy is missing a ton of “3”s, he’s probably just a bad shooter for that game.If you have any other ways these factors can be interpreted, please leave it in the comments. I’ll be interested to see what you can figure out.

Individual Player Charts:

After the hot start, Stu was little-used.

Quiet day for Gibson.

All of Grady’s shots were from 3, but he was using his quickness in other ways: he finished with 2 assists (and one more would-be on a missed shot).

Manny didn’t get going until the second half. The asterisk next to fouls indicates that he made one of the shots on which he was fouled (need to figure out a better notation for that). One of his midrange misses was a chuck on a low shot clock.

Almost no shots for CJ, and his only attempt was a blocked putback.

LLP showed he can hit open threes, but did next to nothing in the second half. The missed shot from the lane probably should have been made.

Called on to shoot very little, but made the most of his opportunities.

Either he or Douglass seems to be hot from outside in each game. This time, it was Douglass’s turn. However, Novak’s numbers show more desire (ability?) to score in ways other than spotting up for 3.

Little playing time from Jevohn after a pretty good game against Eastern. Might he get a little less playing time now that Beilein seems to like a small lineup?

Good day for DeShawn. He has proven that he can absolutely turn it on when the team needs him.

Obviously this is a very rough draft, and maybe I should have waited until it was a bit more complete to publish, but I’d really like to hear your comments on it to improve it for the future. The next edition of UFR will be a 2.0 with vast improvements, and hopefully it just needs tweaks from there.

Please please please give me your suggestions and concerns with this. Anything is on the table: style, content, aesthetics, and any other feedback you can come up with.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

It’s been rumored for quite some time, but the Athletic Department confirmed today that freshman center Ben Cronin will redshirt and miss the remainder of the 2008-09 season:

University of Michigan men’s basketball coach John Beilein announced today (Tuesday, Dec. 23) freshman center Ben Cronin (Syracuse, N.Y./Henninger HS) will miss the remainder of the 2008-09 season following surgery on his left hip.

The surgery, performed by Dr. Jon K. Sekiya, is scheduled for Wednesday, Jan. 14, at the University of Michigan Medical Center. Cronin will be out five to six months due to recovery and rehabilitation.

“After discussing Ben’s condition with his family and the U-M medical staff we have decided surgery is the appropriate action,” said Beilein. “Even though it is a setback, Ben has been fantastic with his attitude and his determination to get healthy as soon as he is able to rejoin the team.”

“It’s a disappointment I will not be able to practice and help this team get better, but I know this surgery is the best option for me right now,” said Cronin. “I am excited to get healthy and put this hip issue behind me. I am going to take it slow, but I know I will be working as hard as I can over the next five to six months to be ready for next season.”

Cronin is one of four newcomers to the Wolverines this season after he averaged 12.6 points, 11.7 rebounds and 7.2 blocks per game at Henninger High School. After missing most of the preseason with the hip injury, Cronin has seen limited action this season playing in just two games.

Cronin will play next year as a redshirt freshman, with one year (while healthy) to learn under the tutelage of DeShawn Sims and Zach Gibson.

Posted under Basketball, Personnel

<cliche>The shooting inside was as cold as the weather outside</cliche>

This wasn’t the best game Michigan has played.  Neither team was really able to get into any sort of rythm, and the flow wasn’t helped out at all by the referees.  I’m not sure if it was how the FGCU Eagles were playing defense or just a bit of laziness, but Michigan rarely got any sort of penetration or post presence.  While Beilein does believe in the power of the 3pt shot, I’m sure he wasn’t happy with almost 66% (42/64) field goal attempts being from long range, especially when the team wasn’t shooting particularly well.

For a while it didn’t really matter since since FGCU showed why they are in the bottom 10 of RPI.  They didn’t get to double digits until about 3:10 left in the first half, while Michigan had put up a (from just watching the game) very inefficient 27 points.  FGCU went on a run midway through the second half to cut it down to eight.  Eight seems to be the magic number, because then Manny keyed a little run to put the game out of reach.  He didn’t do it with his scoring but rather he finally got some penetration which first led to a Sims dunk.  Manny then drove to the right and kicked out on consecutive plays to Novack then Grady for corner threes.  From there, the game was basically over.

Quick Notes:

• Reed Baker had 16 points and played fairly well.  There were a few people in the crowd really cheering on Reed Baker, which was fine, but when he’s on the line hitting the free throw of a three point play to get them within 8pt, the funnyness is gone, and you should root for your team.
• DeShawn Sims was definitely the MVP for Michigan this game.  He went a very efficient 20/20 with 5 offensive rebounds.  He generally took good shots and was a force inside on the glass and with the ball.
• Manny Harris had another quiet game and sat on the bench quite a bit after picking up a couple offensive fouls.  In the Oakland game, he was still able to get penetration and make plays happen.  He was much more passive tonight.
• Laval Lucas-Perry played fairly well, but doesn’t look as comfortable in the offense as the other guards out there.  This will come with time.  He was still able to make some shots (2/3 from deep) and get to the rim and free throw line.  He does look like the third guy to get into double figures most nights.
• Zack Novack, Jevohn Sheppard Stu Douglass, Zack Gibson were never really able to get going.  Gibson missed his outside shots and did his Courtney Simms impression whenever he got inside.  Novack and Douglass never really got their shots going and Sheppard was never in the game enough get his rhythm.
• There was dumb fan behind me saying we needed to post up when there was Grady, LLP, Novack, Lee and Gibson in the game.  I respectfully disagree,

Posted under Basketball