In the wake of Michigan getting into the NCAA Tournament, I called up college basketball Jamie Mac from MGoBlog Diary Fame. We discussed the recent history of Michigan basketball and what exactly this bid means for the program.
Enjoy!
Posted under Basketball, Blogcast
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First of all, if you haven’t already checked out the video Dylan posted, you should take some time and do so now.
Done? Alright. A few people have asked me how full Crisler was. There were probably between 1500 and 2000 people all sitting in the lower bowl on the East sideline. That area was pretty full, a few seats here or there, but fairly packed. Apparently, Beilein dind’t originally intend on doing a big event, but as he walked around and saw the cheerleaders’ and managers’ and students’ excitement, he realized that this meant a lot to the entire Michigan community. I’m glad he came to his realization, because it really was a special moment, and it was awesome to experience it with that many other people.
Our good friends at WOLV Student Television were there covering the event. For those of you who don’t know, this blog started out as a companion blog for the show Tim produced about Michigan football. Luckily, we’re still close with WOLV, and they were nice enough to share some pictures:
Furthermore, if you’d like to see some video of the celebration and some interviews, WOLV’s very own Kaitlin Urka put together this piece on the Selection Show event:
Thanks to WOLV for the media, and if you’re in the dorms you can catch original WOLV programming on channel 55.
Posted under Basketball, Photo Album
Comments Off on The Scene at Crisler
Updated: Not our home opener, actually in Ypsi. Sorry for the mistake. I had the venues backwards between Tuesday and Wednesday.
Apparently Coach Maloney wanted to get the bad taste of Arizona out of his mouth early. With the unseasonably “warm” weather in Ann Arbor this week, Michigan and Eastern have moved up next Tuesday’s game to be played tomorrow at the Fish Eastern.
No radio broadcast will be available for the new EMU home opener, so it’s just live stats. I’ll try to have a preview up by tonight, but no promises as this took me by surprise.
Posted under Baseball
Well this weekend wasn’t what I was hoping for or expecting. We made Arizona’s pitching staff look either really lucky or really good. I’d say it’s a little bit of both. Our pitching staff outside of Fetter and Miller looked quite the opposite. We had trouble scoring runs most of the weekend, being shut out twice in the weekend. I can’t find the last time that happened by searching MGoBlue, but it probably was back in the early 90s. I’m tempted to post Brian@MGoBlog‘s recent picture of the screwed up cake as it looks more like a baseball anyways. It seems to more adequately describe the disaster of a weekend.
Slight note, for the full box score, click the yellow ‘Box Score’ in the score charts. I’m experimenting still with ways to save space and get more information out. Anyways, on to the recap.
Game 1
| Box Score | R | H | E | ||||||||||||
| Michigan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | |||
| Arizona | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 2 | 8 | 2 | |||
W – Guilmet (2-1) L – Chris Fetter (2-1) Sv – Stoffel (4)
The story of game was runners left on base. Eric Sorenson, formerly of CSTV – back when, you know, they covered college baseball – now of collegebaseballtoday.com, sums it up like this:
You can look at this one of two ways, if you’re a Michigan fan it’s a case of blown opportunities and near-misses. If you’re an Arizona fan it’s a case of bearing down and coming up clutch when it mattered.
Either way, the fact remains that Arizona enticed Michigan into stranding 11 base runners on the night, eight of which were in scoring position. This frustration led to the UofA picking up a much-needed 2-0 win on Friday night in temperate Tucson.
Frustration indeed. Michigan stranded 5 runners at third, 3 at second, and three at first. The Wolverines also grounded into 2 inning ending double plays, both by Dufek. Those might have hurt the worst as it stranded one in the 1st and 2 in the 7th. The rally killer in the 7th was the end of the day for Michigan bats, which were actually fairly productive for not scoring a run.
Michigan spread out 9 hits and 4 walks on the night, and lead off several innings with hits. The runners just couldn’t be moved around. Outside of those double plays, the other major culprit was strikeouts. Michigan struck out a dozen times, earning everyone in the stadium a free Slurpee (actually they earned the free Slurpee after the ninth strikeout of the day in the 8th). Speaking of that particular strikeout, it was Alan Oaks’ fourth of the day, making him the second recipient of the golden sombrero this year for the Wolverines. Ugly.
Kevin Cislo and Anthony Toth both had multi-hit games, but after that, there wasn’t much else to talk about. Cislo went 3/5 with a double and Toth went 2/4 with a double. Both did, however, get caught stealing. I can’t blame Cislo too much for his, as it was a hit and run with him on second and Fellows on first. Ryan LaMarre struck out swinging at a pitch above his hands, leaving Cislo out to dry. Even Toth’s was tough luck as Arizona pitched out on the play. Our rock, their scissors.
The outfield wall did come into play a few times both on offense and defense. Fellows knocked a ball to the wall that lead to his first career triple. LaMarre ripped a high hard one to deep left, but between the wind and the fence, it just couldn’t make it past the warning track. I had the booth confirm that the hit would have been way out at the Fish. Tough luck for Ryan.
On defense, we had a mess of fly balls giving the outfielders trouble. Balls were consistently flying over their heads and off the wall. Kenny Fellows made a pair of “web gems,” one going back into the wall and the other sliding in foul territory. Kevin Cislo also had a great diving stab going toward first. He was at full extension on the backhanded grab of a sharp liner off the bat of Valenzuela. Good defense all around for the Wolverines in this game.
Chris Fetter didn’t have his best day on the mound, but you wouldn’t be able to tell that by his final line. Chris went 7 1/3 inning, giving up 8 hits and 2 runs, only one of which was earned. He worked into a jam here and there, but managed to get himself out of nearly every sticky situation. The run in the third came from a single, sacrifice bunt, and single, while the unearned run in the 5th came from a lead off single and a passed ball right through Kalczynski’s legs. The runner probably would have scored later in the inning as two batters later, a double went off the wall.
Let us never get shut out again?
Notable Stars
Notable Goats
Game 2
| Box Score | R | H | E | ||||||||||||
| Michigan | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 0 | |||
| Arizona | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 9 | 10 | 1 | |||
W -Simon (2-1) L – Matt Gerbe (0-1) Sv – Stoffel (5)
This game saw Michigan finally push runs across the board, but their big inning was immediately eclipsed by that of Arizona. Eric Katzman started shaky and it only got worse to start the third inning. He hit 3 batters and walked four while not giving up a hit and striking out four. He walked the bases loaded in the 3rd and was pulled for Matt Gerbe.
Gerbe walked in the first run, then gave up a pair of singles, allowing all of Katzman’s runners to score. He left after only getting two outs, he was pulled for Tyler Burgoon. Burgoon also inherited the bases loaded. He gave up a double to the first batter he faced, scoring all three of Gerbe’s base runners. Michigan would never retake the lead.
Burgoon gave up another run in the 6th from back to back hits to lead off the inning. He gave up another 2 on a Dillion Baird 2-run-homer. Mike Wilson came in to stop the bleeding in the 8th and pitched 2 innings of shut out ball.
On offense, Michigan had a pretty good game, it just wasn’t enough to recover from the 6 run third inning. The Wolverines out hit the Wildcats 13 to 10, but pushing runs across the board was the problem. Michigan stranded 9 in this game, including 4 at third base and one at second (it was second and third and 1 out). Finishing innings just wasn’t happening.
In the third, Urban tripled to knock in runs 2 and 3, but he was followed by back-to-back strikeouts and a ground out. In the 7th, after Timmy Kalczynski sacrificed himself to move the runners to second and third and one out, Oaks struck out in a pinch hit opportunity and Toth grounded out. It was just tough luck there.
The middle of the order had a great game. McLouth returned from the tweaked ankle to go 3 for 5 with 3 RBIs and 2 runs. Mike Dufek did well going 3 for 4 with two doubles, a run and an RBI. LaMarre and Cislo both kept their hit streaks alive, currently at 10 games. LaMarre went 2 for 4 with 2 runs, while Cislo went 1 for 3 with 2 walks and a run.
This was a solid loss. The strikeout numbers, while high, weren’t as bad this time around. Stoffel is nasty and I find it amazing he hasn’t flown to the professional ranks yet. They guy throws in the mid 90s with accuracy. His breaking pitches had Michigan looking like deer in headlights. He struck out all 5 batters he faced this game. The guy is just good.
Notable Stars
Notable Goats
Game 3
| Box Score | R | H | E | ||||||||||||
| Michigan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | |||
| Arizona | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | x | 14 | 20 | 0 | |||
W – Bandilla (2-1) L – Travis Smith (2-2)
Game 3 of the series wasn’t even close. Michigan was shut out… again. This time the culprit wasn’t strikeouts, but rather double plays. Michigan stranded 9 in this game, but grounded into a crippling 3 double plays. While the first two games of the series might have come off as solid losses, this one was just a flat out pantsing.
We’ll start with pitching. It was bad. Moving on… okay, fine, unlike BigTenHardball, I guess I have to address it… pitching. Travis Smith has kept his pattern of good start bad start alive. A week after throwing 6 innings with 8 Ks and 2 earned runs, Smith collapsed early, giving up 9 hits and 7 runs (all earned) in just 2 1/3 innings of work. After Smith gave up a home run to clear the bases with one out in the third, Wood came in to stop the bleeding, but gave up a walk and an RBI double. It was 7-0 after three, and the game was pretty much over.
Matt Miller pitched a pair of scoreless innings in the 5th and 6th, by far the bright spot on the mound for Michigan. Vangheluwe and Dufek closed out the game with an inning a piece. Vangheluwe gave up 4 hits and 3 runs while Dufek gave up 3 hits and 2 runs.
Arizona was just on fire this game. They were consistently hitting the ball deep to the outfield. Our outfield recorded 11 put outs, several balls made it past our right fielders. Urban and Oaks are definitely in the game for their offensive prowess and not their speed or jumps on fly balls. A couple balls landed just outside of their reach, some bouncing all the way out to the fence.
Fellows on the other hand continued his great defensive performance this weekend. In a weekend with such poor results, it would be easy to miss his glove, but it definitely saved a few runs in each game this series. He had another catch at full extension to save a double and a run in this one.
At the plate, Michigan had trouble even getting on base. Arizona starter Bandilla combined with relievers Doyle and Roach to shut down the Wolverine bats, allowing 6 hits with 3 walks. Bandilla also hit two batters, but it didn’t end up affecting the score.
The closest Michigan came to scoring was in the first inning. Cilso lead off with a double, and Fellows followed that up with a single up the middle just past the shortstop. Cislo had to hesitate to make sure the ball made it past the infielder, and that was just enough to allow the Arizona center fielder to gun him at the plate.
Unlike previous games where strikeouts were the problem, grounding into double plays were the culprit here. With one out in the third and runners at first and second, LaMarre ended the inning on a 4-6-3 double play. With a runner on first and one out in the 5th, Urban ended the inning with a 4-6-3 of his own. Toth ended the 5th with a 6u-3 double play. So that was the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings all ending in double plays.
The double play in the fifth inning was the final dagger in Michigan’s coffin. The only hit after this would come in the 7th on a Mike Dufek lead off single. By the 8th, Kittle and Stephens had both entered the game for “garbage” time.
Positives from the game? For the beat down we received it only lasted 2 hours 47 minutes. We didn’t have to face Stoffel again. We don’t have to worry about Arizona for the rest of the year.
Notable Stars
Notable Goats
Series Thoughts
Stoffel is a Beast
Collegebaseballtoday.com released his thoughts on the game two. It includes the following two descriptions of Stoffel:
I was going to write a clever opening to tonight’s entry here, but Jason Stoffel leered down at me from his pitching mound, gave me a cross look and nearly scared the bejesus out of me. So I’ll just drop that.
See, I just got done watching Arizona pull the rug out from under Michigan for the second night in a row, mostly on the strength of a reliever who is a wicked flamethrower that comes in breathing fire like an angry Gene Simmons.
and….
Five batters. Five strikeouts. Five saves. I’ve got five words for you: Stay away from Jason Stoffel.
The kid is ridiculous. Thank goodness we won’t have to face him for the rest of the regular season. He will probably be the best reliever we face all season.
Where This Leaves Michigan
As for what Arizona means to the season, it doesn’t mean too much. I think we have a hard time making the NCAA tournament without some major muscle flexing in the Big10 conference season or winning the tournament. We’ll have a chance to make up some of our RPI during the conference season, something that generally isn’t true. Ohio State and Illinois are both in the top 50 in RPI right now, but even theirs will drop as they face the Northwesterns and Iowas of the Big10.
I think it is important to remind all of you, as it even escapes me sometimes that Michigan is built to win the Big10, not compete with the top programs in other conferences. JJ in the comments was nice enough to remind me of this the other day. We’re a mid major. We win our conference tournament and try to surprise people when it comes NCAA time. We’re not out there dominating the Rice’s and the Texas’s in the regular season. We earn our bid and move along.
Stat Tracking
I posted some general thoughts on strikeouts over the weekend. I’m working on refining those statistics for better comparisons. I also am looking into runners left on base and ability to move runners over with less than 2 outs. Those updates may or may not make it up this week as I’m ordering a new stat tracking software package against my better judgment (why am I spending $20 on this? because I’m too lazy to figure things out on my own…) to help me stay on top of things, and make it easier to present to you.
Heading to the Home Opener
For those of you who didn’t click the link in Game 3, it takes you to a scoreboard update by BigTenHardball. In it, there was one other score that really caught my eye. IPFW 1, Purdue 0. We play IPFW in our home opener on Friday. I definitely didn’t think I’d be worrying about losing to the Mastadons, but now I’m second guessing our chance at a home sweep this weekend.
Posted under Baseball
I vaguely remember parts of Michigan’s last NCAA Tournament game. I was 12 at the time, but I still remember a gigantic man in maize at the free throw line with Michigan down by 3 to UCLA. He had to make his first and miss his second.
I can’t remember how that game ended, except that Michigan was not able to win. I certainly didn’t understand what happened over the next few years as it came to light how much was wrong with the Michigan Basketball program.
Fisher left and Traylor picked Brian Ellerbe to be the replacement. Traylor left the following and Michigan truly began it’s decade of aimless wandering. The teams and the players Ellerbe brought in couldn’t capture my interest, even though basketball has always been my favorite sport. I really like Bernard Robinson Jr. and LaVell Blanchard, but they weren’t enough to get me into Michigan basketball. In 2001 it looked like we might turn the corner.
Tommy Amaker was a hot coaching prospect. He had a good pedigree with his history at Duke and he took Seton Hall to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2002 he brought in Daniel Horton, Lester Abrams, Amadou Ba, Sharrod Harrel, Graham Brown and Chris Hunter. Horton beat out Dee Brown at Illinois for Big Ten Rookie of the year. There was another great class brought in the next year.
There was a lot of excitement for these teams, and they often looked like they could make the tournament. I remember after they won the 2004 NIT people were talking about how Michigan won the 1984 NIT and then went on to become a number 1 seed in 1985. That didn’t happen.
Amaker had six years and couldn’t get in the tournament with talent that has become the NBA Developmental League All-Star team. I was surprised when it was announced that Amaker would no longer be the coach. I figured there would be one more year with the coming freshman class of Kelvin Grady, Manny Harris and Alex Legion. Bill Martin decided to make a bold move in firing Amaker and made an incredibly safe decision to hire a coach with over 30 years of head coaching experience.
The first season was the painful square peg and round hole feeling that Michigan fans know a little too well by now. The players didn’t look like they were getting the system, and some weren’t even trying. In 2007, Michigan only won 10 games, and in many it looked like there was no way they could score.
Coming into this season, there were three seniors on the team, two of which started as walk ons. There were 3 players over 6’9″, one red shirted, another played a total of about 10 minutes. At most points during the season Michigan started 2 freshman. Zack Novak was matched up against people 5 inches taller, 40 pounds heavier and with 3 more years of experience. This should not be a tournament team.
Then Michigan beat UCLA. Most fans were brought back down to Earth by the Duke and Maryland games. Then Michigan beat Duke and didn’t drop another out of conference game. I had become used to Michigan dropping two or three games they shouldn’t have. That didn’t happen. They made it to the conference season only losing to two good ACC teams.
The conference season was up and down, but the team was always in the game and always in the hunt for the Big Dance. They entered into their last four games needing to win two and they beat two tournament teams, Purdue and Minnesota. The formula was then set: win one at the Big Ten Tournament and Michigan is likely in. Michigan completely dominated Iowa, looking like they could beat anybody. They then looked flat against a very efficient Illinois team.
The rational side of me had read all the great bubble breakdowns and knew that there is no reason Michigan shouldn’t be in, but at Crisler, with a few thousand other Michigan fans, I was still nervous. Coach Beilein didn’t reassure us with his pre-rally speech. It was good, but it had the sound of trying to cover the bases in case Michigan didn’t make it.
Once the show started, you could feel the crowed tense up just before every 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12 seed were announced. After each bracket, the fear grew. There were a lot of bubble teams that I didn’t think would make it that did. The crowd grew a bit nervous, and nearly exploded when Minnesota was announced as part of the field.
They had gone through the top half of the last bracket, and the spots for Michigan was down to 2. I was already gearing myself up for disappointed. “If NCAA refs have been screwing over Michigan all year, why shouldn’t the NCAA selection committee?”.
Then Michigan was announced as the 10 seed in the South Bracket taking on 7 seed Clemson in Kansas City. Then, this happened:
There was a huge sense of release from the crowd. people were jumping up and down and hugging, and it lasted well after CBS has cut away. Beilein thanked the coaches; David Merrit addressed the crowd; the players led the crowd in singing the Victors. Beilein and the players left the court to do their media interviews, and I walked home unable to wipe the smile off my face.
As I was walking up my block, there were some people running in to check Southwest Airlines to see how much it would cost to fly out to Kansas City. It’s like a curse that has left a seemingly permanent malaise was finally broken. It doesn’t matter what happens in the NCAA Tournament. This team has done something that, on paper, better Michigan teams couldn’t.
There’s excitement for Michigan basketball again. There were more people at this announcement than were at the Eastern Michigan game last year.
Like John Beilein said: “Making the tournament is only the first step.” A step that he was able take in two years. I can’t wait to see what happens in the next two years.
Posted under Basketball
Getting some stat watching done over the weekend as it has been a glaring weakness of late. Game is at 7pm EDT. Preview is here.
Over the last couple weeks, something that has really stood out to me as I watch the Michigan baseball team has been the rate at which we strike out. Strike outs are obviously the worst form of put out out side of the double play (or triple play, although much less common). Strike outs do not test the defense. They, statistically speaking, are subject to much less chance of error for the defense. Unless the batter swing at a pitch in the dirt with no runner on first, the batter is out. Even if the ball is in the dirt, there is still slim chance that the runner beats out a throw to first.
For the season, we have played 13 games, and we have struck out 116 times. That works to an average of 8.9 Ks/game. For the sake of continuing with tempo free statistics to balance out games in which we are home and don’t bat in the 8th inning and games in which we have gone into extra innings, we have hit a total of 114 innings, placing our strike out rate at 9.16 Ks/9-innings, or just 1.018 Ks/inning. That rate is obscenely high, and has killed several run scoring opportunities.
You can click on that graph to see it a little bit larger. You can pretty much ignore Safara, Bircher, and Arbor as they have one plate appearance or less this season. Really, outside of the normal starters, you should still probably reserve judgment, as Oaks, Aspinwall, Kittle, and Stephens all have far fewer plate appearances than the regulars. Crank is teetering on meaningful.
Looking at just the starters, 3 players stand out from the bulk, that is Lorenz, Fellows, and Cislo. Lorenz is currently striking out at least once in every three plate appearances, ~1 K in 2.67 PA. On the other side of the graph is Fellows and Cislo. Fellows is doing fairly well, striking out at a rate of .13 per plate appearance, or one in every 7.57 plate appearances. Cislo is by far the best on the team, striking out at a rate of .04, or once in every 16 at bats.
The rest of the team falls between .20 (McLouth) and .25 (Toth), meaning they strike out at about once per 4 (Toth) or 5 (McLouth) plate appearances. This generally means at least one strikeout per game per batter. Not good.
It gets worse when you look at it in terms of how that effects run scoring opportunities. By having the strike outs spread throughout the whole team, there is no way to really adjust the lineup to get the hitters together. Coach Maloney has already changed the order to adjust for the Fellows and Toth strike out rates, as well as Dufek and McLouth. There isn’t really anything he can do from a game management standpoint. It is up to the hitters to go out and do their thing.
Update
Commenter Other Chris pointed out that it may or may not be good to compare last year’s numbers to this year’s, at least for the players who had considerable plate appearances last season. I went back to look and came up with the following.
| Player | Last Year | This Year |
| Mike Dufek | .14 | .23 |
| Kevin Cilso | .11 | .06 |
| Ryan LaMarre | .17 | .21 |
| Alan Oaks | .29 | .45 |
| Chris Berset | .18 | .04 |
While we are only a little ways into the season, some of these numbers are quite different from last year to this. While LaMarre’s numbers don’t appear to be a big change, he’s averaging at least one more strike out per week. LaMarre is almost always up to bat with runners on base, so those outs do affect whether or not we put up runs. Dufek’s is even more drastic, averaging another strike out every other game, but that’s also why he’s dropped in the batting order.
I’ll be keeping an eye on these as the weekend and the conference schedule go along. The pitching seems to be a strength with some of the other contenders, especically Penn State and Macy. Go Blue.
Posted under Baseball
Game is just starting… check it out. Preview is here.
I was checking out the CSTV Game Tracker for the live stats and probable starter for Arizona about 30 minutes before pregame today and noticed something pretty interesting about the Wildcats. So far this season they have averaged 0.7 triples a game. After some quick math, I find that is 11 triples in 15 games, which seems really high.
I went to do some investigating, and the first stop was a google search for their home stadium. Jerry Kindall Field has a very descriptive wikipedia page. I can tell you that the groundskeepers “overseeds the field in November with a Perennial Rye, Arnold Palmer II, to prepare it for the season.” Interesting.
Looking at the dimensions, part of the reason may be the length of the foul poles. It’s a paltry 360 feet down each line, about 30-35 feet longer than most parks. This long line, particularly down the right field line can lead to more opportunities. Left handed hitters, such as their Bobby Croyle who has three triples on the season, can pull pitches down the line and send them to the far corner for extra bases.
Looking at the stats provided by ArizonaWildcats.com, the GameTracker was slightly off, as the Wildcats only have 10 triples on the season, which is still impressive. Hunter Pace and Matt Presley also have a pair of triples each, but ArizonaWildcats.com doesn’t provide their handedness. I’d bet at least one of them is a lefty.
Bryce Ortega has one as well, but I can see through GameTracker that he is indeed right handed. With his high batting average, I’m going to guess he’s one of those that sprays the ball around the field, including the soft shots down the right field line. Its the sign of a good hitter when you can take the outside pitch where it wants to go.
Childs and Valenzuela each have a triple, but like Pace and Pressley, I’ve got no clue if they bat from the port side or not.
It’ll be interesting to see if Cislo, Fellows, and Dufek can garner a few triples this weekend – well at least Cislo and Fellows. I don’t see Mike Dufek stretching too many doubles to triples, but then again, he’s not that slow either. I don’t expect homerun numbers to go down that much either. The gaps and dead center are the same as most other parks we’ve played in to date. There just may be one or two to straight away right or left that would normally clear but don’t.
Posted under Baseball
Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.
Michigan takes on the Illinois Fightin’ Illini tonight at 6:30 PM (EDT) in Indianapolis. The second-round Big Ten Tourney game is important to Big Dance seeding, though the first-round win over Iowa has likely solidified a tournament bid. Wolverines fans can see the game on the Big Ten Network.
Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):
| Michigan v. Illinois: National Ranks | |||
| Category | Michigan | Illinois | Advantage |
| Mich eFG% v. Illinois eFG% D | 132 | 9 | II |
| Mich eFG% D v. Illinois eFG% | 194 | 88 | II |
| Mich TO% v. Illinois Def TO% | 16 | 93 | M |
| Mich Def TO% v. Illinois TO% | 136 | 90 | I |
| Mich OReb% v. Illinois DReb% | 280 | 144 | II |
| Mich DReb% v. Illinois OReb% | 190 | 252 | M |
| Mich FTR v. Illinois Opp FTR | 317 | 12 | IIII |
| Mich Opp FTR v. Illinois FTR | 29 | 344 | MMMM |
| Mich AdjO v. Illinois AdjD | 44 | 4 | I |
| Mich AdjD v. Illinois AdjO | 77 | 97 | M |
Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third. The stats are only through the regular season, where KenPom’s data comes to an end.
When Last We Met…
DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris (though he was Michigan’s lone scoring threat in the second half, more on this later) both struggled against a lineup boasting size much better than the Wolverines (The Illini are, on average, an inch and a alf taller than Michigan. This is a bigger deal than it sounds). The since-marginalized Kelvin Grady and Laval-Lucas Perry kept Michigan in the game in Assembly Hall. Michigan’s offense, entering its “dark period” of the season, managed almost no second half offense, and the Wolverines lost the game, despite holding a halftime lead.
Since Last We Met…
Michigan went from “damn good nonconference team” to “meh” conference team, going 6-9 the rest of the regular season until the BTT tourney win against Iowa. The offense (and, for quite some time, defense) went dormant for much of the year, but has reemerged recently, to give Michigan fans some hope that John Beilein may indeed be all he’s cracked up to be. DeShawn Sims, crappy the last time these two teams met, has been ridiculously good in the last two games.
The Illini went 8-6 in the remainder of their conference schedule, though their biggest win was a home win against Purdue back in the beginning of February. They have lost their last two games (they had a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament), and come into this game having gone cold, especially considering they have choked away late leads in two games against Penn State in their last 5. Also, Chester Frazier got hurt, which is very important.
And…?
Michigan is in the tournament at this point, barring absolute catastrophe in other conferences’ tournaments. However, this game is certainly important for improving their seeding. Michigan went through a rough stretch at the beginning of the conference season, but they’ve mostly snapped out of it, excepting the horrifically-officiated game at Iowa. Illinois has been solid all year, but they’ve fallen off somewhat towards the end of the year. This is where the important stuff kicks in:
Chester Frazier, an offensive non-factor but ridiculously important piece for the Illini defense, got hurt this week, and is not expected to play against Michigan. Though Manny wasn’t the primary liability for Michigan against Illinois the second time around (DeShawn was), if he’s freed up at all, he’ll draw an additional defender away from his teammates, giving all of them more open looks if Frazier doesn’t play, or even if he’s limited in any significant way. This is very good for Michigan.
Taking into account all the above factors, in addition to the fact that home court advantage for Illinois (and just about every team in the Big Ten) is far more important to their team than is home court advantage for Michigan, I think the Wolverines have a pretty good shot. All that said, I still am not confident about the Wolverines leaving Conseco with a win.
KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit dog – 2.5 points at last check – at the neutral site, and that prediction sounds pretty good (accuracy-wise, not what I’m hoping for) to me.
Posted under Analysis, Basketball
Comments Off on Preview: Illinois III
Times have been adjusted as I thought it was Mountain Time, not Mountain Standard Time, which is currently Pacific Daylight Time. Arizona doesn’t use daylight savings time. Ridiculous.
Arizona
 |
| from arizona.edu |
10pm Friday, 7pm Saturday, 2pm Saturday (all EDT)
Jerry Kindall Field
Tuscon, AZ
Media Game 1: Live Stats, Audio, and Video ($*)
Probable Starters Game 1: Chris Fetter (2-0)
Media Game 2: Live Stats, Audio, and Video
Probable Starters Game 2: Eric Katzman (2-1)
Media Game 3: Live Stats, Audio, and Video
Probable Starters Game 3: Travis Smith (2-1)
Series: Arizona leads 42-12
Last Meeting: Michigan 3, Arizona 4, 2008 Regional in Ann Arbor
*Video requires at least paying a $9.95 monthly subscription for buy it — as it is automatically renewed each month. It also requires you to download Microsoft Silverlight 2.0. I really wish Michigan would expand its sports coverage to this level.
Overview
The Arizona Wildcats are a middle of the road Pac10 team, picked to finish 5th by the coaches, with a current record of 8-7 including a three game sweep by #9 Georgia and a 2 game sweep by #11 Oklahoma State. Those two sweeps are why they still sit so high in RPI (#61) despite the record. The Wildcats haven’t really played anyone I would say that compares closely to Michigan. Most teams they have played are either top 15 or bottom 150.
Offense
Unlike many of the teams Michigan has faced so far, Arizona doesn’t have that one guy that makes the offense click. They, instead, use a combined team effort to produce runs. They currently have 9 batters of the 13 players seeing regular playing time with batting averages over .300. Due to the inconsistency in the lineup, I’m not sure what to expect going into the weekend.
I imagine second basemen Rafa Valenzuela will keep his lead off role this weekend. He is leading the team in hitting at .378, but he’s only started in 10 of the 15 games so far. He’s not much of a threat on the bases, currently 2/3 on stolen base attempts.
The current RBI leader for the Wildcats is third basemen Jett Bandy with 15. Bandy has played in 14 of Arizona’s 15 games, batting anywhere from 3rd to 6th. He’s only batting .296, but he also leads the team in doubles with eight.
At the bottom of the order, Bryce Ortega has provided consistency at shortstop in his 14 starts. Ortega has hit .327 with a team high 17 runs scored. He’s second on the team with 13 RBIs.
Bobby Coyle is the only player to start every game this season. The centerfielder is only batting .284 with 10 RBIs and 12 runs scored.
Pitching
Starting pitching has been a real weakness for the Wildcats this year. I can’t make heads or tails of their rotation so far, and the Arizona website hasn’t announced probable starters yet either. Last week saw their coach try two new starters, neither of which did particularly well against #11 Oklahoma State.
Coming into the season, Arizona was looking to set up the rotation around three pitchers, Preston Guilment, Matt Veltmann, and Donn Roach. So far on the season, they have a combined record of 3-5 and 6.30 ERA. Guilmet has had the best success of the three, going 16 innings in 3 starts, posting a 1-1 record and 5.76 ERA. He also sports a 7:15 walk-to-strikeout ratio. The other two are averaging just over 3 innings per start.
Freshman Kyle Simon also made three starts for the Wildcats. In his three starts, Simon has gone 10 2/3 innings, allowing 13 runs (9 earned), on 17 hits and 5 strike outs. He also had a long relief appearance against Georgia, going 4 innings giving up 8 hits and 3 runs. His ERA currently sits around 6.75.
Relief pitching has been used early and often this season for Arizona. Cody Burns, a right handed senior, has already made 12 appearances this season. His numbers haven’t been the best this season, giving up 8 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings pitched with 8 walks and 21 strike outs. His overall appearances have been hampered by poor fielding to the tune of 6 unearned runs.
Jason Stoffel has been the bright spot in the bullpen. As their closer, he has seen work in 9 games, striking out 22 in 16 innings. He has three saves on the season, and has been impressive in each outing. His 1.60 ERA is by far the best on the team.
Outlook
I think Michigan may be able to win 2 of 3 in this series, which should really help with the RPI. The game I’m least optimistic about is the Eric Katzman start. I’m not saying I expect us to lose, but its the game I’m least certain about. Chris Fetter should be his normal self and I’m really liking what I’m seeing from Travis Smith lately. The bullpen will be well rested as we didn’t have a midweek game.
It will be interesting to see who catches most of the games in this series. As it stands, Berset is currently listed as fourth on the depth chart at catcher. I can’t say I saw that coming, but with the emergence of Coley Crank and Jake McLouth as offensive forces, and Timmy Kalcynzski’s leadership, Berset has seen himself drop from solid starter to 4th string in a matter of weeks. Chris Berset remains out with a broken thumb (as pointed out by JJ in the comments). Crank hit extremely well last week, McLouth could make an appearance there, or team captain Timmy Kalczynski, who is listed as probable starter in the weekly release may be used. [updated after comment made by JJ]
Other Note
Saturday is “Club Arizona Kid’s Day” which sounds violent, but is actually a pretty good deal for any person under the age of 18, as tickets are $1 and other activities are held throughout the ball park.
Posted under Baseball
Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.
Half 1
| 1st Half | |||
| Lineup | Time | Score | Differential |
| Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims | 7:21 | 12-7 | +5 |
| Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims | :19 | 2-0 | +2 |
| Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson | :55 | 3-2 | +1 |
| Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims | :57 | 5-0 | +5 |
| Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Shepherd, Sims | 2:13 | 3-6 | -3 |
| Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson | :29 | 0-0 | 0 |
| Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson | 1:22 | 0-0 | 0 |
| Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims | 1:01 | 3-2 | +1 |
| Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims | 4:04 | 12-0 | +12 |
| Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Sims | 1:19 | 0-2 | -2 |
| Totals | 20:00 | 40-19 | +21 |
Half 2
| 2nd Half | |||
| Lineup | Time | Score | Differential |
| Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims | 3:56 | 7-7 | 0 |
| Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims | 2:07 | 7-2 | +5 |
| Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Gibson | 2:23 | 2-4 | -2 |
| Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Novak, Sims | :09 | 0-0 | 0 |
| Lee, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Novak, Sims | :52 | 0-0 | 0 |
| Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims | 6:07 | 11-6 | +5 |
| Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson | 1:03 | 2-2 | 0 |
| Grady, Douglass, Wright, Shepherd, Gibson | 2:36 | 4-3 | +1 |
| Grady, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Shepherd, Puls | :47 | 0-2 | -2 |
| Totals | 20:00 | 33-26 | +7 |
Individual Players
| Stu Douglass 25min +21 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | |||||
| Midrange | 0/1 | ||||
| 3-pt | 1/1 | 0/2 | 2/2 | ||
On a day when Michigan blows out the opponent on the strength of ridiculous performances from the big 2, Stu wasn’t noticeable.
| Zack Gibson 9min 0 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | 2/3 | ||||
| Midrange | 0/1 | ||||
| 3-pt | 0/1 | ||||
On a day where Michigan wins running away, a non-positive differential would typically be a bad sign. However, Sims was the main reason for the blowout victory, so Gibson can’t really be knocked.
| Manny Harris 34min +32 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | 0/1 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | |
| Midrange | 1/1 | ||||
| 3-pt | 1/3 | 2/2 | |||
Dude. Look at that differential number. Manny was on fire from the field, particularly from 3. Of course, most of his attempts came after the game was well in hand, but… dude.
| CJ Lee 21min +7 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | 1/1 | ||||
| Midrange | |||||
| 3-pt | 0/1 | ||||
Very good defense, and made a bunch of good plays on offense, despite not shooting very much. I credit him with 7 assists (or unconverted assists). Maybe he wasn’t quite as good as I remembered (his making an offensive play could have shocked me into thinking he was doing very well), because his differential isn’t the greatest, but I’ll take it.
| Laval Lucas-Perry 15min +9 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | |||||
| Midrange | |||||
| 3-pt | 0/1 | 1/1 | 2/2 | ||
He didn’t do much slashing to the hole (which he’s been very good at of late), but I’ll take this LLP every game, especially considering he made bunch of good drive and kick plays.
| Zack Novak 31min +36 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | 1 | ||||
| Midrange | |||||
| 3-pt | 1/1 | 0/1 | |||
OMFG look at that differential. He didn’t get a ton of usage, but playing against taller players every game, you’d expect him to be at a slight disadvantage in terms of differential. He didn’t participate in a single negative shift.
| Jevohn Shepherd 5min -4 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | |||||
| Midrange | |||||
| 3-pt | |||||
No shots, and a very small sample size prevent me from criticizing Shepherd. I didn’t even get to type “Very good athleticism and very bad basketball skills” in the shot chart once. What a disappointment.
| DeShawn Sims 30min +30 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | 3/4 | 4/4 | |||
| Midrange | 4/6 | ||||
| 3-pt | 1/2 | ||||
Easily the player of the game. Started out unstoppable, scoring Michigan’s first few buckets. Dominated Cyrus Tate inside.
| David Merritt 18min +19 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | |||||
| Midrange | |||||
| 3-pt | 1 | 1/1 | |||
Nothing truly noteworthy. It’s more his steady presence than anything tangible that Merritt helps being to the team.
| Kelvin Grady 3min -1 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | |||||
| Midrange | |||||
| 3-pt | |||||
Tiny sample size and no shots = no conclusion drawn.
| Anthony Wright 8min -5 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | |||||
| Midrange | |||||
| 3-pt | |||||
Played few enough minutes that his differential isn’t troubling, especially considering much of his time came when the game was already decided (i.e. after the first 5 minutes)..
| Eric Puls 1min -2 | |||||
| Quality | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | F |
| Lane | |||||
| Midrange | |||||
| 3-pt | 0/1 | ||||
OMG he missed a three. YANK HIS SCHOLLIE. uninteresting junk time appearance for Eric.
Jerry’s Final Thoughts
During Football season, Dr. Saturday came up with a method of determining whether Oklahoma was running up the score to pass Texas in the BCS. The general idea was as follows:
Iowa scored 45 points in this game. Michigan reached 45 points (passed it actually, reaching 47 on a 3-pointer from Stu Douglass) with 16:15 left in the game, leading 47-26. So yeah, this was a certified blowout. I don’t believe quite as much in “running up the score” in college basketball as I do in football, especially when the winning team is on the bubble and making its case for the tournament. But still, this was dominating in every way.
Posted under Analysis, Basketball
