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Preview: Minnesota II

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Minnesota Golden Gophers today at Noon (Eastern, 11AM local). The game, which is, like, super-important for tournament chances, can be seen live from The Barn on the ESPN machine.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Minnesota: National Ranks
Category Michigan Minn (O) Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Minnesota eFG% D 142 55 O
Mich eFG% D v. Minnesota eFG% 179 141 O
Mich TO% v. Minnesota Def TO% 15 41 M
Mich Def TO% v. Minnesota TO% 151 246 M
Mich OReb% v. Minnesota DReb% 274 212 O
Mich DReb% v. Minnesota OReb% 163 63 O
Mich FTR v. Minnesota Opp FTR 321 159 OO
Mich Opp FTR v. Minnesota FTR 27 257 MMM
Mich AdjO v. Minnesota AdjD 57 19 O
Mich AdjD v. Minnesota AdjO 75 99 M

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Michigan gave fans hope for a tourney berth (the one they’ve been dangling in front of us on a string attached to a fishing pole for much of the year), by blowing out Minnesota in a game that wasn’t even nearly as close as the 12-point margin would indicate. Zack Novak blew the roof off Crisler from distance, and the rest of the team wasn’t so shabby themselves. Manny was limited with some foul trouble, and Sims wasn’t a huge factor from the paint (see: Minnesota’s enormous, shot-blocking big men), but everyone stepped up to get the job done, including Kelvin Grady.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan dropped road games to Iowa and Wisconsin, sandwiched around beating Purdue in Crisler Arena. They have gotten generally better on offense (mostly on account of hot shooting days against the Gophers and Boilermakers), while also getting slightly better on defense (mostly because they owned the Gophers in Crisler).

Minnesota won home games over Northwestern and Wisconsin, while dropping a roadie to Illinois. The defense has improved significantly in that short range, while the offense, a point of complaint for Gophers fans for much of the year, has continued its slide. Perhaps importantly for this game, they’ve turned the ball over more than they had been, and forced fewer turnovers by opponents than they had been prior to the Michigan game. Their defensive rebounding percentage has improved ever so slightly from “abysmal,” and they’ve managed to maintain their #1 block percentage in the intermediary.

And…?

If Michigan can win this road game, they nearly have a berth locked up, unless they choke one away in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. If Minnesota can win, they probably have earned themselves a berth as well. Needless to say, this game is huge for both teams. Sadly, I don’t see the Wolverines coming home with a win, especially considering their struggles away from home this year. HOWEVA, that isn’t to say all hope is lost. An inconsistent team can lose to anybody, but they can also beat anybody.

KenPom predicts a 66-61 Minneosta win in a 63-possession game. He gives Michigan just a 28% chance of emerging with the win in Williams Arena.

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UFR: Iowa II

The shooting data can be founf in .xls format here, and the differential data can be found in the multi-game UFR post from earlier this week.

Individual Players

Stu Douglass 31min -19
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 4/7

Not a bad shooting game, but holy hell look at that terrible differential number.

Zack Gibson 4min -3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Didn’t get very much run at all. Had 1 legit and 1 crap moving screen go against him in the first half, and I think the foul trouble and the shaken confidence it gave him combined to keep him from playing too much.

Manny Harris 38min -1
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/2 0/2 2/2 0/1
Midrange 0/3 0/1
3-pt 0/2 1/1

His shooting wasn’t particularly bad, especially considering many of those misses in the paint should have been called fouls, but he made some really bad decisions. Way too many “1”s.

CJ Lee 36min -20
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1
Midrange
3-pt 0/3

grumble grumble running set plays for CJ to shoot 3s grumble grumble. Also, the shifts in which he didn’t play were ALL positive except for one.

Laval Lucas-Perry 17min +6
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/1 0/1
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 1/3 0/1

Had a pretty good differential, but missed a few shots that he had absolutely no business missing. I’m coming to realize that he should be utilized more as a slasher in addition to a shooter (a role in which he’s recently struggled). And no, I’m not kidding.

Zack Novak 41min -13
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange 1/1
3-pt 1/1 1/2 1/4

Man, if this guy could just shoot as well every game as he did against Minnesota.

Jevohn Shepherd 3min +3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Surprisingly, he was one of the few people not in on a negative shift. Of course, that is largely because he barely played at al..

DeShawn Sims 32min +3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 0/1 0/1 2/2 1/1
Midrange 0/2 1/3 0/1
3-pt 1/3

Was a victim of the poor officiating (though not nearly as much as Manny), but other than that, had a lackluster day.

David Merritt 14min +3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 1/2 0/1

grumble don’t shoot grumble. Played decently enough.

Kelvin Grady 0min
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

DNP – coach’s decision.

On the Officiating

After people’s reactions in the comments, I thought I might have been a bit harsh in my criticism of the officiating in this game. Upon further Review, I’m even madder than before. Of course, bad calls went both ways, but Michigan by far got the shorter end of the stick. I don’t want to become a boy who cried wolf, so I’m going to refrain from mntioning officiating in the future unless it’s particularly egregious (as it was in this game), but I stand by my previous comments that this game was one of the most poorly reffed I’ve seen all year – and that’s saying something.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball, Hockey, Misc.

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Differentials: Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue

I haven’t had a chance to re-watch and score the data for these three games, but that shouldn’t prevent me from posting the (admittedly late) differential data. When I get a chance to grade the shooting, I’ll post those up as well.

Iowa

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 7:47 8-12 -4
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:10 0-2 -2
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :13 0-0 0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :29 0-3 -3
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:05 6-3 +3
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Sims 1:42 2-0 +2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:07 10-5 +5
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:27 3-3 0
Totals 20:00 29-28 +1

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 6:45 5-9 -4
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:23 6-4 +2
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 2:21 3-3 0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Sims 1:17 3-2 +1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:05 2-0 +2
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:47 2-2 0
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 5:22 6-8 -2
Totals 20:00 21-22 -1

OT

Overtime
Lineup Time Score Differential
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 2:12 0-7 -7
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims 2:48 4-7 -3
Totals 5:00 4-14 -10

Purdue

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:58 5-7 -2
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Sims 1:52 3-0 +3
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson :38 1-0 +1
Merritt, Douglass, Novak, Shepherd, Gibson :46 0-0 0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Gibson 2:17 5-8 -3
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :50 1-1 0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:55 4-3 +1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:39 5-3 +2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Sims :24 0-0 0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Sims 1:27 4-3 +1
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:14 9-9 0
Totals 20:00 37-34 +3

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:08 9-5 +4
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:16 3-0 +3
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 2:49 9-7 +2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson :14 0-3 -3
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson 1:49 0-4 -4
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:28 6-0 +6
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 1:18 2-0 +2
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 5:10 13-11 +2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:53 3-7 -4
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson :10 0-2 -2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims :18 3-3 0
Grady, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims :27 2-0 +2
Totals 20:00 50-44 +6

Wisconsin

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 6:54 9-16 -7
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:47 5-2 +3
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Gibson, Sims 2:12 1-4 -3
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims 1:24 0-2 -2
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:59 13-2 +11
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Wright, Sims 2:44 6-6 0
Totals 20:00 34-32 +2

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:26 2-7 -5
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:06 0-6 -6
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:20 0-0 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:25 5-0 +5
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Wright, Gibson :44 0-3 -3
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Wright, Sims :42 2-0 +2
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims 3:07 5-4 +1
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:10 7-8 -1
Totals 20:00 21-28 -7

Individual differentials will be posted when I get the shooting data up; for now you can add them up yourself if you’re so inclined.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

We Don’t Deserve This

Polls are in. Somehow Michigan stills shows up in three of them. Your guess is as good as mine on how we didn’t even drop in the Collegiate Baseball poll. The Coaches’ Poll (USA Today/ESPN) last week was technically the preseason, so our initial start is why we went up. Also, we faced two of the coaches voting in that poll, in Jacksonville’s Alexander Terry (who we beat 21-3 and lost 10-2) and St. John’s Ed Blankenmeyer (a team we shut down despite their being an offensive juggernaut). Another note, while pointless right now, I included the Ping! Poll in the chart. May we one day be in it.

Poll Current LW
RPI TBA TBA
NCBWA 28 25
Collegiate Baseball 28 28
BaseballAmerica NR NR
Ping!Baseball NR NR
Rivals NR NR
USA Today/ESPN 32* 37*

*In others receiving votes section

BigTenHardball details their all weekend team. I can’t argue with any omissions like I did last week with collegebaseball360. BTH’s Brian does some quality work. Dufek might have warranted a honorable mention for his work in the bullpen, but it wasn’t that much of an oversight. Michigan showed up as follows.

  • 2B – Kevin Cislo
  • OF – Ryan LaMarre
  • BN – Anthony Toth
  • BN – Jake McLouth
  • 4th SP – Chris Fetter

Something else stands out in the list, and the rankings for that matter: Ohio State has come out of near nowhere to start the season and is playing some high quality ball. I figured them to be a candidate to vie with Indiana for third in the conference, but now… watch out.

Pythagorean Theorem. Happy Valley Hardball put out their first look at the Pythagorean Theorem for team winning percentages. The idea is that expected winning percentage is a function of runs scored and runs allowed. Currently Michigan shows up as third best in the conference, in a power poll sort of way. The emphasis on Penn State is obviously his.

Team Runs Scored Runs Allowed Pyth % Delta
1 Ohio State 67 42 0.718 -0.282
2 Illinois 47 31 0.697 -0.136
3 Michigan. 73 58 0.613 -0.165
4 Indiana 38 31 0.600 0.000
5 Minnesota 40 35 0.566 -0.148
6 Purdue 42 45 0.466 0.132
7 Michigan St 23 37 0.279 0.112
8 Penn State 25 42 0.262 -0.024
9 Northwestern 29 52 0.237 -0.013
10 Iowa 22 58 0.126 -0.041

Loss to Jacksonville Looks Better.  I didn’t say good, but Jacksonville beat #6 Florida State in the midweek matchup.  As stated previously, midweek games can really hurt teams.  Another case this week was Indiana losing to Indiana State.  Just beating some of these teams will lower our RPI later in the season, losing will really hurt.  I still think we’ll lose one or two of these games later in the season, including one against Notre Dame.

Baseball Programming Update. I’ve got another pretty busy weekend planned this time around. I plan to have the Siena update out late Thursday night. I’m not sure what I’m going to do for the Mets. If anything comes out in the weekly release, I’ll be sure to let you know. It should be out today or tomorrow.

Posted under Baseball

Stat Watch – Week 2

In this edition of Stat Watch, we continue are look into the baseball teams offensive attack, but we start experimenting with pitching as well. I’ve also been playing with a new data/graphing system throughout the day, so graphs may show up and disappear as Paul and I work in the upgrade.

Hitting

The hitting stats are becoming more refined as batters are starting to accumulate at-bats. Our current at-bat leader (40 ABs) is Jake McLouth, who newly moved into the clean up position, has still yet to draw a walk this season. Cislo and Fellows pull up the rear with 31 ABs. I left Berset and Lorenz out of those numbers as they are replaced fairly consistently and have about 2/3 less the number of plate appearances as Cislo and Fellows.

The batting average didn’t quite make the jump you’d expect after winning a game 21-3 with 19 hits. Last week we ended with a .288 batting average; this week we end with a .291 average. Not much improvement right there.

Week 2

Week 2

As you can see, on-base-percentage also didn’t make a jump either. We actually lost .003 points down to .406 this week. This kind of comes off a little bit weird. I would have thought the Jacksonville 19-hit affair would have raised the percentage, but as they say, one game doesn’t make the season.

The rest of our games have been pretty abysmal in terms of hitting, and it shows in the following graph. What we have here is average hits (H/9), runs (R/9), walks (plus hit by pitch, BB/9), and strike outs (K/9) per 9 innings of hitting.

per9inning2

It’s encouraging to see our runs per nine innings going so high. It would be pretty high even if you took our 21 run game and made it 8, our current average, it would still have us scoring about 6.67 runs per game. That’s should be enough to compete well in any league… at least if our pitching keeps up their side of the deal.

I’d also like to point out the strike out’s per nine innings. That number has continued to grow as we’ve gone along, which is a definite problem. We’re currently averaging over a strike out per inning (9.11/9-innings). It’s killing several of our innings.

Lineup Changes

As mentioned in the weekend recap, we had a few lineup changes this weekend. Let’s take a little bit at a look why, just so you out there get a better idea of what’s going on. First, let’s look at McLouth vs Dufek.

McLouth vs Dufek Stats through Week 2

Note: McLouth's BA is the same as his OB%

On the left, we can see McLouth is hitting leaps and bounds above Dufek. Dufek is .182 points behind in average alone. In the slugging category, McLouth is averaging .279 more bases per at bat. In more basic terms, McLouth averages an extra single every 4 at bats he takes. That’s a very sizable gap.

This move places a better hitter behind our best player, Ryan LaMarre. By doing this, pitchers cannot pitch around and walk LaMarre without fear of giving up more runs. With Dufek struggling behind LaMarre, we may lose a few runs each game that his struggles continue.

The second move by Coach Maloney was to switch Anthony Toth and Kenny Fellows. Toth mainly batting in the 2-hole, as we can see in the graph below, was getting on consistently, but he was not able to put the ball in play and move the runners on base around or gather many RBIs.

Fellows vs Toth

Fellows vs Toth Stats through Week 2

Looking at the two players’ production, the on base numbers are currently very consistent, and both are rather good. The difference is the hitting, which Fellows has done better and more consistently better. Fellows is currently hitting .387, as compared to .250 for Toth.

By switching the two batters, Maloney is hoping that Toth will still continue his pace with walks, setting the table for the top of the order. The hope for Fellows is that he continues to hit and get on base, driving in more runs, moving the runners a head of him into scoring position, and still get on base to score for the heart of the order behind him.

The ideal inning would start with a Toth walk, a Cislo single on a hit and run putting runners at first and third, a Cislo steal right before a Fellows RBI single. LaMarre either walks or hits a double, followed by a McLouth double, and then either struggle through Dufek and Berset to try to eek out a last run before Lorenz comes up, as he’s statistically an out. That kind of inning is 5-7 runs, which are the kind of innings that win college baseball games.

Leader Board – Offense

Average On Base% Slugging%
Player AVG Player OB% Player SLG%
Ryan LaMarre .421 Kenny Fellows .500 Ryan LaMarre .711
Kenny Fellows .387 T-Ryan LaMarre .488 Jake McLouth .650
Jake McLouth .350 T-Kevin Cislo .488 Nick Urban .486
Runs Batted In
Runs Walks + HBP
Player RBI Player R Player BB/HBP
Ryan LaMarre 17 Kevin Cislo 13 T-Kevin Cislo 12
Jake McLouth 10 Anthony Toth 11 T-Anthony Toth 12
T-Toth/Fellows 7 Ryan LaMarre 9 Mike Dufek 8
Steals Doubles Home Runs
Player SB Player 2B Player HR
Kevin Cislo 5 Nick Urban 4 Jake McLouth 4
Ryan LaMarre 3 T-Kevin Cislo 3 Ryan LaMarre 3
Anthony Toth 2 T-John Lorenz 3 Mike Dufek 2

Pitching

And here’s where things get fun. Instead of showing trends, which don’t help much over 2 appearances or less than 15 innings, I think I’m going to look through some of the team statistics. This process may be adjusted to individual pitchers by the time the conference season rolls around.

Opponent Hitting

Opponent Hitting

Here we see the opponent batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. The opponent batting average is currently .306, the on base percentage is .343, and the slugging percentage is .442 for the season. The on base numbers aren’t too bad, which surprises the heck out of me. Its amazing how such a bad weekend can make you forget how great a weekend the BigEast/Big10 Challenge really was on the mound. Opponents are out hitting us and out slugging us this season, which is never a good sign. We should be looking to get that opponent average down into the .290s or less. On base percentages need to drop to the .310s at the highest, and slugging… well it has a lot of room for improvement.

opponentper9inning2

In this chart we have the “per 9 innings” stats of our opponents accumulated through the season. This just breaks down the previous chart into reasons why we are getting out hit. Opponents average an extra .5 hits per game, which isn’t much, but we average about 1.5 more walks per game. We also strike out about one more time per game than our opponents. I would put ideal numbers to be at to be H/9 ~ 8, K/9 ~ 9, BB/9 ~ 2, and ERA around 4.00. Right now the ERA is pretty close to what we would want in a season, but we should never just settle. We should always strive to improve the numbers.

Leader Board – Pitching

Starter ERA Innings Starter Ks
Player ERA Player INN Player Ks
Chris Fetter 1.64 Eric Katzman 11.2 Chris Fetter 13
Eric Katzman 3.09 Chris Fetter 11 Travis Smith 10
Travis Smith 4.70 Kolby Wood 10.2 All 3 others 6
Relief ERA Relief App Relief Ks
Player ERA Player APP Player Ks
Mike Dufek 1.80 Tyler Burgoon 4 Matt Miller 11
Tyler Burgoon 3.12 T-Matt Miller 3 Mike Dufek 6
Matt Miller 3.86 T-Matt Gerbe 3 Tyler Burgoon 5
Oppon BA Walks+HBP/9IP Saves
Player BA Player
BB/HBP Player Sv
Mike Dufek .125 Chris Fetter 2.45 T-Mike Dufek 1
Matt Miller .185 T-Mike Dufek 3.6 T-Tyler Burgoon 1
Chris Fetter .233 T-Brandon Sinnery 3.6* T-Matt Miller 1

*This is the only stat Sinnery can claim he’s doing well in right now.

Next week I’ll look at some of these same stats and hopefully have some better news on the pitching front.  I plan on working into some more advance statistics as the season moves along, I’ve just been bogged down with other things.

Posted under Baseball

Wisconsin 60 Michigan 55

In a way, the game against Wisconsin on Sunday showed how similar to the 2008 football team John Beilein’s squad really is: there were flashes of brilliance, and certainly lots of reason to be hopeful for the future. However, despite a few good players, the team simply doesn’t have enough quality depth to win many of the games in which they come close. Unlike the football team though, it was slow starts and not-strong-enough finishes that doomed the team against the Badgers.

There were also similarities to the Michigan basketball teams under Tommy Amaker, in which the offense was disjointed for too long, and several possessions ended with a hopeless three thrown up to beat the buzzer.That contrasted with many other possessions, to be fair, in which the crisp passes and cuts opened up enormous shooting lanes for open threes or layups.

The refereeing was inconsistent yet again (as it seemingly always is), though it wasn’t bad enough that I think it was a huge factor in Michigan’s losing the game, unlike the contest against Iowa.

The Wolverines are good, but they just aren’t good enough to win a game like this… yet. However, they are good enough to win a game on the road against Minnesota, and they’ll need to do just that on Saturday in order to keep the dreams of returning to the tournament alive.

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Baseball Weekend Recap – Week 2

Reminder: Tim will appear on The Big Show with John U. Bacon on 1050 WTKA at 3:30 this afternoon.

This week saw a stark change on the mound for Michigan. The beautiful pitching performances of last week were replaced with some rough and tumble innings for nearly the entire pitching staff. On offense, things started to pick up in the power department, and things looked pretty solid. Still, we managed to go 2-2 in the weekend tournament, bringing forward some serious questions about making the NCAA tournament at the end of the season.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee Recap

Michigan 11, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 19
Box Score
W – Lucas Annen (1-0) L – Travis Smith (0-1)

Ryan LaMarre,
Image from mgoblue

Wisconsin-Milwaukee came into this fresh off a horrible series in Arizona State where the top 10 Sun Devils destroyed the Panthers in nearly every aspect of the game. UW-M was hungry for a win, and fueled by some apparent bulletin board material, the Panthers came out swinging.

Michigan started in the bottom of the 1st with a 3 run frame that would set the high scoring pace for the rest of the game. After Cislo single and Toth walk, Ryan LaMarre hit a 3 run blast in the inning, the first of his two home runs. All was well so far.

Travis Smith ran into trouble in the third. Up 4-2, Mike Dufek started the inning with a fielding error. A few plays later, Toth let a ball get away from him for the second error of the inning. By the end of the inning, we would see Smith pulled after giving up 6 runs. One of the runs was scored while relief pitcher DeCarlo had entered the game, but was charged to Smith as it was his baserunner. DeCarlo was pretty horrid in that 1/3 inning of work in which he hit two batters, gave up the RBI single, and threw a wild pitch.

Well that hurt. Now down 8-4, Michigan began to chip away, eventually coming within a 9-7 margin from a pair of RBI singles by Toth and LaMarre and a McLouth solo home run.

Then came the dagger from the Panthers. After a fairly successful 5th inning by reliever Losorelli (his first career appearance), the wheels fell off in the 6th inning. Losorelli gave up 4 straight singles to open the inning and threw a wild pitch (which actually lead to an out at the plate). At this point, Miller came in to the game to stop continue the bleeding. After immediately throwing a wild pitch to give up a run, he induced a ground ball, gave up two walks in a row to force in a run, then back to back base clearing doubles. Seven runs scored that inning and Michigan was down 16-7.

Michigan tried to answer in the bottom half of the inning when after a pair of walks to Cislo and Toth, Ryan LaMarre knocked his second 3 run homer, giving him 7 RBIs on the day. Michigan wouldn’t get any more runs in the 6th, and would only plate one more in the 8th. UW-M would answer that run with three more of their own in the top of the 9th, making the final score UM-W 19, Michigan 11.

Bummer.

Notable Stars

  • Ryan LaMarre – 4/5 7 RBI, 2 R, 2 HR
  • Anthony Toth – 2/4 3 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB
  • Kevin Cislo – 1/3 3 R, 2 BB, 2B

Notable Goats

  • Toth and Dufek’s error in the 2nd giving up 4 unearned runs, putting us behind big early
  • Cislo’s error giving up an unearned run.
  • Every pitcher except Vangheluwe hit a batter – DeCarlo hit three, Smith/Miller/Losorelli each had one, four of those runners scored
  • Wild pitches – each reliever had one
  • The pitching staff gave up 15 earned runs.

A lot of this loss falls on the shoulders of the pitching staff. The two errors in the 2nd though really killed momentum. I give credit to the Panthers, they came out swinging and never let up. This game was an absolute waste of Ryan LaMarre’s talent. To get 7 RBIs and still come up short of the win is horrible.

Jacksonville Game 1 Recap
Michigan 21, Jacksonville 3
Box Score
W – Chris Fetter (1-0) L –

Chris Fetter, Image from mgoblue

So obviously this game went quite a bit better from both the pitching and hitting standpoint. Chris Fetter reminded everyone that the Michigan team isn’t completely devoid of consistency on the mound by throwing 6 innings of shut out baseball while only allowing 4 hits while walking none and striking out 7. Great game by the captain.

Brandon Sinnery also had an alright performance, at least compared to his last two outings. In three innings, he gave up 3 runs, all in his first inning of work. He buckled down after a rough seventh, only allowing 2 base runners, one of which was erased by a game ending double play.

Rather than detail the 21 runs and how they were scored, I’ll let the notable stars do most of the talking for the batters as there were plenty of them. Its also worth noting that several of the backups got mop up duty during this game, including 2-3 that hadn’t seen playing time yet. Mike Kittle and Bryce Aspinwall really made the most of their opportunities, which is great for the two of them.

Notable Stars

  • Ryan LaMarre – 2/4 4 RBI, 2 R, BB, 2 K, HR
  • Jake McLouth – 2/4 R, RBI
  • Mike Dufek – 3/5 2 R, RBI, HR, 2B
  • Anthony Toth – 2/7 4 RBI, 2 R, 2B
  • Kevin Cislo – 2/4 2 RBI, 3 R, 2B
  • Kenny Fellows – 2/5 3 RBI, 2 R, 2B
  • John Lorenz – 2/3 4 R, RBI, 2 2B (his first career hits)
  • Chris Fetter – 6IP, 0 R, 7 K, 4 H, 1 HBP

Notable Goats

No real goats this game as we won 21-3. Solid game by the offense and on the mound. Toth had an error, but it didn’t affect the score.

Jacksonville Game 2 Recap
Michigan 10, Jacksonville 2
Box Score
W – Carson Andrew (2-0) L -Eric Katzman (1-1)

I have to give it to the Dolphins, despite being shellacked in game one, they didn’t let it bother them going into game two. The game started as a pitchers duel between Katzman and Andrew. The only run in the first four innings came on a Berset RBI double with Fellows on first.

Ryan LaMarre, Image from mgoblue

In the fifth, the Dolphins jumped on the board as Katzman started to lose his placement on his fastball and break on his off speed pitches. Katzman walked 3 batters and gave up a single giving up a run and loading the bases. Burgoon came in to try and get a stop, but the first batter he faced knocked a single right back up the middle scoring two, both charged to Katzman.

Burgoon would give up 3 runs in the 6th. Matt Gerbe would give up 3 in the 7th and one in the 9th. Michigan meanwhile couldn’t get the offense started against either Dolphin pitcher. Andrew and Loosen combined to go the full 9 only giving up 7 hits, 2 walks, and 2 runs while striking out 13. The second run came from a lead off home run in the 9th inning by Jake McLouth.

So maybe we should have saved some of the offense in game 1 for game 2?

Notable Stars

  • Jake McLouth – 2/4 R, RBI, HR
  • Chris Berset – 1/3 RBI, 2B
  • Eric Katzman’s first four innings – 0 R, 3 K, 2 H, 1 GDP, 1 HBP

Notable Goats

  • Eric Katzman’s fourth inning – 3 R, 3 BBs, 1 H, 2 outs
  • Mike Dufek – 0/4 2 left on base, 3 Ks (hat trick)
  • Kenny Fellows – 0/3 2 left on base

The offense just sounded lethargic. We couldn’t get anything going and the two pitchers for Jacksonville looked like the best pitchers we’ll face all year. This loss really hurts (being the second of the weekend and following such a large route). With two losses to these types of teams (outside the top 100), Michigan is going to need to be impressive down the stretch of the OOC schedule, or immensely impressive in the Big10 season to make sure we at least secure an at large bid to the tournament. I’m not saying I expect us to lose in the Big10 Tourney just yet, but there will be much more competition this season.

Akron Recap
Michigan10, Akron 7
Box Score
W – Mike Dufek (1-0) L – Alex Loftin (0-1)

Kevin Cislo,
Image from Churl flickr

Again with the comebacks. This time it happened in the 8th inning, the last inning that was played. Michigan’s travel plans cut the game short, which occasionally happens in college.

Michigan started the game by taking a 1-0 lead on a Jake McLouth RBI ground out to the firstbase side of the pitcher. The lead wouldn’t last long, however, because starter Kolby Wood was giving up runs early and often. Wood gave up at least one run in each of his 5 innings of work, allowing Akron to jump out to a lead of 7-2. In his defense (or by lack of defense), 2 runs given up in the third were both unearned as Toth booted a potential inning ending ground ball.

In the top of the 6th, Michigan started chipping away at the Zips’ lead. Urban began the inning by being hit by the pitch. He would have to leave the game to have the left wrist looked at. I’ve yet to hear the extent of the injury, and imagine he should be back by next weekend. When they take players out it is generally just precautionary to check for broken bones. Hopefully that’s not the case.

Timmy Kalcyznski homered to follow the hit by pitch. To close out the scoring, Ryan LaMarre had an infield single on the hit-and-run to knock in Cislo. Michigan was then down 7-5.

Bats for both teams quieted down until the final inning. Toth started the rally by being hit by a pitch, followed by a Cislo walk. Fellows followed with an RBI double, and Ryan LaMarre cleared the bases with a 2 RBI single through the left side. After walking Dufek, the pitcher Loftin threw away a pick off throw to first, allowing Dufek to second and LaMarre to score. Aspinwall would knock in Dufek with a single, but would ultimately be caught stealing. Michigan lead 10-7, and Dufek would close out the bottom of the 8th for the win.

Lineup Changes

During the second Jacksonville game, I got to thinking about how long it would take for McLouth to be bumped into the cleanup spot and Dufek drop to the 5-hole. Dufek’s batting average has been hovering around the .210 line while McLouth, while not drawing many walks, has been batting well over .400 for the season. It made sense to me for these two to switch, offering Ryan LaMarre more protection, and getting Dufek more strikes to look at as McLouth will be on base, and the opposing teams can’t afford to pitch around him with runners on.

After some second guessing on my part, Coach Maloney did indeed make the switch in the Akron game. The move didn’t make any noticeable changes in the output of the game, but its a pretty small sample size. I’m interested to see if the switch stays permanent when we play Siena on Saturday.

The other switch included swapping Toth and Fellows in the 2 and 9 holes. I really liked this move too. Toth also has been struggling with the average, but is getting on base just as well as anyone else. By moving him into the 9-hole, he can get away with the low batting average as he won’t need to knock in runs, but his walks will allow him to act as a lead off man when the lineup rolls back over, allowing him to still score many runs.

This move worked excellently in the 8th inning, allowing Toth to work the walk and Fellows to collect the RBI double. On the other side of the swap, Fellows was able to move Cislo around on a hit while Toth struggled at the plate today. Really great move by Maloney.

Notable Stars

  • Ryan LaMarre – 3/4 4 RBI, R, BB, K
  • Kenny Fellows – 2/4 2 R, RBI
  • Bryce Aspinwall – 1/2 R, RBI
  • Timmy Kalczynski – 1/2 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (1st career)
  • Kevin Cislo – 2/3 3 R
  • Mike Dufek (pitching) – 3 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K
  • Coach Maloney – his 500th career win (244th at Michigan)

Notable Goats

  • Toth’s 2 run error
  • Wood’s 5 earned runs in 5 innings

We’re not going to continue to win games at the last minute like this. Our pitching needs to keep us in the games a bit better, and we’ve got to stop giving up so many unearned runs. We gave up 7 of them in to two games on Friday and Sunday. While our infield is young and inexperienced (at least on the left side), we must play better on defense.

I’ll have the stat watch out later in the week this time as we don’t have a midweek game. Next game is Friday at 1pm vs. Siena. We’ll be playing in Port St. Lucie, the home of the Mets spring training. We also have our rematch scheduled with the Mets on Sunday.

For those of you who don’t me, I passionately hate the Mets.  The first game I ever went to was when I was 9 months old.  It was the Mets at Astros in the 1986 NLCS.  It was the decisive game 6 that went 16 innings.  I didn’t make it all the way through the game, but it was the first and only major league game I have ever cried at.   The Mets went on to win that game and beat the Red Sox on the Bill Buckner play. I’ve hated them ever since.  May we beat them by 30.

Posted under Baseball

Preview: Wisconsin II

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Badgers of Wisconsin at 2PM today (Eastern time, 1PM local). The game can be seen live from the Kohl Center on the Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Wisconsin: National Ranks
Category Michigan Wisconsin Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Wisconsin eFG% D 153 153
Mich eFG% D v. Wisconsin eFG% 169 111 W
Mich TO% v. Wisconsin Def TO% 18 255 MMM
Mich Def TO% v. Wisconsin TO% 157 5 WW
Mich OReb% v. Wiconsin DReb% 265 8 WWW
Mich DReb% v. Wisconsin OReb% 164 203 M
Mich FTR v. Wisconsin Opp FTR 318 64 WW
Mich Opp FTR v. Wisconsin FTR 27 224 MM
Mich AdjO v. Wisconsin AdjD 57 54
Mich AdjD v. Wisconsin AdjO 77 21 W

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

The slide began. The Wolverines dropped a 12-point game on their home floor, in which Zack Novak was easily the team’s MVP. Michigan was down the entire game, and by double digits through most of the second half. The game was at least as much of a blowout as the final score indicated.

Since Last We Met…

The Wolverines’ once-sure tourney bid has declined into a bubble that has moved inches closer to bursting ever since the demoralizing Badger loss. The team has struggled on offense since losing to Wisconsin, and instead has recently re-invented itself as something of a defensive unit (maybe not a stellar one, but good enough to win some games). Good wins like Illinois and Purdue have been interspersed with losses like Iowa and near-losses like Indiana. A 10-2 start has turned into an 8-9 slide ever since.

Wisconsin started out the season very strongly, but has also gone on something of a slide lately. They seem to have turned it around as a 6-game losing streak flipped over to a 5-game winning streak before succumbing to the Spartans a week ago in their last outing.

And…?

Both teams need this win to enhance their tournament resumes. If Michigan can come away with a big road win, they might be just one win in the Big Ten Tournament away from clinching their first ticket to the Big Dance since 1998. The Badgers are in similar situation, and have the home-court advantage in this one, a big advantage. Wisconsin is now solidly in the tournament, but a losing streak to end the season could be devastating.

KenPom predicts a 66-58 Wisconsin win in a 58-possession game. He gives Michigan just a 20% chance of emerging with the win in the Kohl Center.

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Preview: Akron

Image from
baseball-almanac.com

Akron
10:30am – March 1, 2009

John Session Stadium (Jacksonville Campus)
Jacksonville, FL
Media: Live Stats and Live Audio
Home Team: TBA
Probable Pitchers: Kolby Wood (0-0) vs Andrew Brown (0-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 0-0
Last Series/Game: This is the first

Overview

The Akron Zips of the MAC Eastern division have been a young team the last two years who are finally getting experienced veterans at the starting positions. Last year marked the first year since 1997 that Akron finished above .500 (25-24), with a final RPI of 148. This year they look to improve on that record with strong senior leadership and experience on the mound.

Akron was chosen to finish 5th in the Eastern Division this year, well behind nationally ranked Kent State. So far this season they have gone 0-6, facing a variety of competition. They have lost two close games in this tournament already, including a 9-7 loss to UW-M and a 6-4 loss to Jacksonville.

Offense

I’m going to shorten this section for teams we only face once. I don’t think you need to know much about the batters that don’t appear to be a huge threat, even if they may have an explosive game against us. So if I skip a player and he for some reason goes 6-6 with a cycle and 3 home runs and 14 RBIs, the guy just didn’t catch my eye based on his long term stats.

The Zips are lead by senior shortstop Kevin Haas. Haas lead the team with a .347 batting average, scoring 52 runs and hitting in 30 RBIs. Haas had a mix of average and power, shown in his 11 doubles, 3 triples, and 2 home runs. Haas is currently batting .346 with 4 runs and an RBI.

John Turk will start behind the plate for Akron, who a year ago hit .313 with 30 runs scored and 28 RBIs. He was able to catch 11 of 34 stolen base attempts against him, which isn’t that great. This year Turk is currently batting .350, with 3 runs and 4 RBIs.

The most improved fielder so far this year is Phil Bednar at second base. Last year, Bednar hit only .252 with 21 runs and 39 RBIs. This year, Bednar is leading the team with .474 average (9/19) and three doubles.

In the outfield, Brandon White has taken over starting duties after getting spot starts last season. This year has seen him hit .429 with a team leading 7 RBIs. He and first basemen Kyle Hallett (.412) have been hitting very well behind Bednar, offering him great protection.

Pitchers

Andrew Brown is the probable starter for this game. He is a right handed freshman checking in at 6’2″. This will be his second appearance of the season. The first came in relief against Wake Forest, going 2.1 innings and giving up 6 hits, 5 runs (3 earned), on 2 walks, a hit-by-pitch, and a strikeout. There isn’t much we know about him yet, so this will be a learning experience for everybody.

The relievers haven’t really done that poor of a job this year for the Zips. Three relievers ( Bassitt, Fawcett, Fleming) still hold a 0.00 ERA over a combined 6 2/3 innings pitched. Danzinger has 8 innings with 8Ks with 4 runs given up. After that we start stretching to guys who had one bad inning.

Outlook

I’m not really certain about this one. Akron has been hit or miss (quite literally), but still can’t managed to pull out a W. Either way we need to salvage a victory just to keep face with some of the pollsters. We hopefully prove a little something to Coach Alexander of Jacksonville (one of the members of the coaches poll). I’m just not overly optimistic about it for some reason. Perhaps its the loss from Friday lingering? I don’t know.

Semi-Relevant Reading

I got nothin’

Posted under Baseball

UFR: Minnesota I

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

1st Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 6:52 10-10 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson 1:15 2-2 0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Gibson 1:12 0-2 -2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Gibson 2:14 8-2 +6
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson 1:46 2-0 +2
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:26 5-0 +5
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 5:06 13-9 +4
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims :03 0-0 0
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims :06 0-0 0
Totals 20:00 40-25 +15

Half 2

2nd Half
Lineup Time Score Differential
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 4:18 8-8 0
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:32 3-3 0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims :56 3-0 +3
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson :49 4-0 +4
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Gibson :33 2-3 -1
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson :27 0-0 0
Lee, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims :49 0-3 -3
Lee, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims :56 2-5 -3
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 3:36 6-4 +2
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims 1:16 0-0 0
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims 2:50 5-5 0
Grady, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims 1:21 1-4 -3
Merritt, Lee, Harris, Novak, Sims :37 0-2 -2
Totals 20:00 34-37 -3

Individual Players

Stu Douglass 32min +17
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/2 1/2
Midrange 1/1
3-pt 0/1 1/3 1/2

A pretty active day on offense. Did a lot of work on the fast break, as well.

Zack Gibson 8min +9
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange 1/1
3-pt 2/2

Didn’t play too much, but made the most of his offensive opportunities.

Manny Harris 22min -6
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 2 0/1 0/1 2/2 0/2
Midrange 1
3-pt 1/1 1/1

Not a great day, but had his moments.

CJ Lee 37min +14
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1
Midrange 0/1
3-pt 0/1 0/1

Had a few turnovers late in the game, and didn’t shoot particularly well.

Laval Lucas-Perry 6min 0
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1 0/1
Midrange
3-pt

Hardly played at all.

Zack Novak 36min +10
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt 1/2 2/3 3/4

On fire all day.

Jevohn Shepherd 4min -2
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1 0
Midrange 0/1
3-pt

Didn’t play much, and was pretty much the only guy in negative differential.

DeShawn Sims 32min +3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1/1 0/1
Midrange 0/2 2/5 0/1
3-pt 1/4 1/2

DeShawn wasn’t really the featured player on this day. He shot a bunch from midrange, but didn’t make as many of them as he usually would.

David Merritt 9min +10
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane
Midrange
3-pt

Handled the ball well enough to not be a liability.

Kelvin Grady 14min +3
Quality 0 1 2 3 F
Lane 1 1/1
Midrange
3-pt 2/2 1/1

Stepped up and got some significant playing time for the first time in a while.

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