Three Four things before I start the preview:

1. I’ve got way too much work this week, cutting into my preview time for the weekend.
2. Jacksonville’s website wasn’t very conducive for digging up information. So some areas are kind of light.
3. As mentioned in a comment, it’s the Minute Maid College Classic in Houston this weekend, so I’m going to be at Minute Maid Park watching 5 top 10 teams (and UHouston) face off in the tournament of DEATH! Blood sport style. Posting will be light and I may or may not get the Akron Preview done.
4. ARGH! Play better! [updated 10am]

Enjoy the weekend.

Image from jacksonvilledolphinsfans

@Jacksonville, Doubleheader
3:30 & 6 pm – February 28, 2009

John Session Stadium (Jacksonville Campus)
Jacksonville, FL
Media: Live Stats, Live Audio, and Live Video ($)
Media (Game 2): Live Stats, Live Audio, & Live Video ($)
Home Team: I believe Jacksonville will be home both games
Probable Pitchers (Game 1): Chris Fetter (0-0) vs Billy Schlee (RHP, 0-1)
Probable Pitchers (Game 2): Eric Katzman (0-0) vs Carson Andrew ( , 1-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 0-1
Last Series/Game: 9-2 L @ Jacksonville on 2/29/2000

Overview

Jacksonville is another middle of the road Atlantic Sun (woo they have pay per view for baseball!) team much like UNF during the midweek game. Jacksonville was picked to finish 5th in conference by the preseason coaches’ poll. They were 27-29 last year finishing with an RPI of 134. In conference, the Dolphins were 13-20, good for 10th of 11.

This year Jacksonville started the season with a three game series at Florida International. The Dolphins emerged 1-2 after the series, losing the opening two games by scores of 4-3 and 20-1. They did managed to pull out the last game however, by a score of 9-3. Florida International isn’t that good of a team for those wondering (finished 158 last year).

Offensive Stars

The leader of the Dolphins is catcher Jeremy Gillian. Gillian is all preseason Atlantic Sun for his efforts last year, hitting .377 with 60 RBIs including 9 homeruns and 10 doubles. He also is a force behind the plate, throwing out 17 runners last year.

The second leading hitter for Jacksonville last year was second baseman Chuck Opachich. Opachich hit .323 last year, only scoring 28 runs and 18 RBIs. That seems pretty low for that batting average. This year he is the lead off man, and he’s done alright in limited playing time. He’s 2/7 with a K in 2 games, only one a start.

Hitting in the two hole will be returning left fielder Kyle Fleming who is 2/7 with a run and RBI, and 2BBs this season. Last season he hit .313 with 40 runs scored. He’s the one setting up Gillian with RBIs.

Pitching

Billy Schlee is a closer converted to starter for the Dolphins. Last season he was 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA with 6 savees. He only had 12 appearances for 14.1 innings where he gave up 17 hits and 11 runs, while striking out 11. In one relief appearance this season he went 3.2 innings, he gave up 3 runs on 3 hits, a walk, and striking out 5.

Carson Andrew was the second starter for the Dolphins a year ago, going 5-3 with a 4.61 ERA (2nd on team). In 18 appearances (11 starts) he logged 70.1 innings while giving up 53 runs (36 earned, which tells you about their fielding last year). Andrew did collect 7.67 K’s-per-9-innings which is respectable, and only walked 26. That’s pretty solid for college starters.

This year Andrew had the start in the team’s only win. He lasted 4 innings giving up 4 hits and 2 runs. He walked 2 and struck out 3 in the win. His statistics appear to point to him not lasting long into games (only about 5 innings per start).

There isn’t enough information about the relievers, and the 20-1 loss last week has all their numbers looking pretty poorly.

Semi-Relavant Reading

Got nothin’.

Posted under Baseball

Michigan 87, Purdue 78. And it wasn’t even that close.

The TV where I watched the game tonight had a terrible picture. The score was virtually incomprehensible all game, I couldn’t tell whether it was Laval Lucas-Perry or DeShawn Sims playing defense, and I undoubtedly missed several interpretive dances from Ed Hightower.

Somehow, that made it make more sense.

The Michigan Wolverines, losers in an embarrassing game at Iowa, in which (in my admittedly biased opinion, of course) the referees essentially decided the game with inconsistent officiating in the last minute of regulation, beat a top 25 team yet again. The Purdue Boilermakers, who escaped with a win against Michigan in their home arena thanks in part to an egregiously bad call against Manny Harris, fell to the Wolverines by a margin of 9 points, and the margin really felt much further apart. I don’t mean to make this post entirely about officiating in other games, because the Wolverines’ performance shouldn’t be diminished by focusing on things outside their control, much less those that happened days or even weeks ago.

DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris were the players we all know they can be tonight, and though Manny still wasn’t getting the calls that Michigan fans think he should be getting, the team leaders, both from Detroit (where John Beilein clearly will never be able to recruit), were able to put up big numbers against the Boilermakers and lead their team to victory. The role players, who until now have been taking turns with huge games, were able to each step up enough without any one player going ballistic from long range.

Michigan is back on the bubble, and Purdue’s chances of winning the Big Ten are reduced to basically zero. These stakes were set before the game, and Michigan was able to use the motivation to come away with a huge road win against a top-25 team, and Purdue was sent home knowing they heavily rely on Michigan State to choke in order to even have a chance to take the regular-season crown.

Posted under Basketball

Image from UWM.edu

Wisconsin-Milwaukee
1 pm – February 27, 2009
John Session Stadium (Jacksonville Campus)
Jacksonville, FL
Media: Live Stats and Audio
Home Team: TBA
Probable Pitchers: Travis Smith (0-0) vs Andy Hetebrueg (RHP, 0-1)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 0-0
Last Series/Game: Never has happened (unlike UNF, I know this is true)

Overview

Friday Michigan will be playing the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers, the only D1 baseball school in the state of Wisconsin as the Badgers in Madison cut the baseball team due to huge athletic deficits in the early 90s. The Panthers were a bad team last year, finishing 25-36 overall, 11-15 in the Horizon League conference, good for #258 in RPI. They did manage to make it to the championship of their conference tournament, but they ultimately would lose to Illinois-Chicago.

This year the UWM started off a series with #6 Arizona State. It didn’t start or finish well for the Panthers as Arizona State swept the 4 games by a combined score of 53-9. Obviously the numbers are going to be a bit skewed from facing such an opponent. The team is batting .128 and their ERA is 14.06. Tough start for the team picked to finish third in the Horizon League.

Offensive Players

The lineup for the Panthers has been shuffled quite a bit this year. No one has started in the 5/6/7/9 holes of the batting order more than once. Only the 1/2/3 batters have started in every game, and only lead off hitter and second basemen Andy Gerhartz has started each game in the same place in the order.

Gerhartz batted .288 last season while scoring 43 runs and collecting 13 RBIs. Gerhartz is a threat on the bases, stealing 15/18 last season. He’s started slow this year, at a nice .071 pace with 6 Ks. I guess I can’t make that much fun as our lead off hitter is batting .077 as I type this (pre-UNF game). Its also worth noting that Gerhartz is one of those ball magnets. He was hit 8th most in the NCAA last year (23 HBPs) and is on a solid pace this year with 3 in 4 games.

Image from UWMPanthers.com

Cole Kraft will likely bat second in the order and play shortstop. He hit .295 last year making spot starts at second base. This year he has been less impressive (as the theme continues), batting just .167.

Behind Kraft will most likely be All Horizon League first basemen Shawn Wozniak. Wozniak had a break out season last year hitting .364 with 6 home runs and 26 doubles. He’s a third year starter and is the team “star.” Continuing the unimpressive theme, this year he’s started at .182 with 2 singles.

After that, you have a crap shoot on the order. My guess is Ben Long, the utility player, bats cleanup. Long has made a start at catcher, first base, and designated hitter this season already. He was the Second Team All Horizon League last year as a freshman DH. He hit .292 with 6 homeruns and 11 doubles on the year. Long is the only Panther batter currently hitting over .300 (3/9). He also is tied for the team lead in hits.

He’s tied with left fielder Tim Patzman (the only other batter batting above .200), who is also the thunder in the lineup so far this year. Patzman already has 3 runs and 2 RBIs thanks to his homerun and two doubles. He is a first year starter as a junior and may get bumped up a spot in the order to get more pop earlier.

Rounding out the outfield are center fielder Doug Dekoning and right fielder Johann Andes. Dekoning hit .305 last year (his freshman season) with 9 steals, earning him a spot on the “Newcomer Team” in the Horizon League. Andes may not actually start this weekend. He is a junior college transfer with only this year left in eligibility. So far on the season, he is 0/9 with a hit by pitch and sacrifice fly. Exepct both of these players, or their replacements toward the bottom of the order.

Shaun Wegner will probably do the catching for this game. The returning starter (Second Team All Horizon League) hit .329 last year with 35 runs and 23 RBI. He is more the offensive type catcher than defense. He had 22 pass balls in 50 games (43 starts) last year, and only threw out 30% of stolen base attempts. Hopefully this leads to some success on the basepaths that we could definitely use.

The last starter will most likely be Paul Hoenecke at third. Hoenecke is a true freshman who was one of the best prospects in the state of Wisconsin last year. So far this season, he’s hitting .091 with a double and RBI.

Pitchers

Image from HorizonLeague.com

Starting in this game will be Andy Hetebrueg, a right hander who has had meh success in his career. Hetebrueg was 6-7 last year in 17 appearances (15 starts). His ERA last year was 6.57 in 86 1/3 innings of work, recording 50 Ks and only 34 BBs.

This gets encouraging from a Michigan standpoint. In his first start this year, Hetebrueg lasted 4 innings. In those four innings, he gave up 8 hits, 5 of which were home runs. Yes, you read that right. He gave up 5 homeruns(!) in 4 innings, with an opponent batting average of .421(!). On top of that, he also gave up 8 runs (all earned) and walking 3 and hitting a batter. Arizona State lit him up at the plate and took advantage on the mound, stealing 3 bases on 3 attempts. Lets see, something good about him this year… he struck out one batter? All that said, you have to imagine he’ll be looking to get back on the right side of things against Michigan.

The relief corp behind Hetebrueg has obviously gotten some experience already this season. It’s been about as ugly as Hetebrueg’s start. Ten different pitchers got work last week, only two of which didn’t give up a run. The ERA of the non-starters is currently 33.78. This is somewhat inflated due to a long relief appearance in game 2 vs ASU as Cuyler Franzke was forced into the game in the first inning due to an fast exit by starter Jeff Gordon. Franzke gave up 8 runs in the “non-start,” which is half the runs given up by the bullpen. If you exclude Franzke, the bullpen ERA is …only… 13.93. Having looked through their stats the last few seasons, I can’t even find anyone to even single out to tell you keep an eye on them.

Unless one of their pitchers has a career day or is just plain on, the top of the Michigan lineup should tear this pitching staff apart.

Semi-Relevant Reading

• One of the assistants is keeping a journal for The College Baseball Blog. The most recent post was “wow, last weekend went poorly.” The post before has an interesting look on how smaller northern schools spend spring practice. Nothing enlightening, but interesting nonetheless.
• The CBB also has their full preseason preview of UWM. It’s more in depth than I cared to go, detailing all of the position battles and mentioning some of the starters. It reaffirms the “bullpen-by-committee” as mentioned earlier, not just closer.

*Based from starting rotation last week. UWM’s site hasn’t prefaced the game as of yet.

Posted under Baseball

Midweek games are the traditional trap games that really haunt the top ranked teams in college baseball. You generally schedule cupcakes, throw whatever you have left that resembles a starting pitcher, a few of your backup players to earn experience, and pray like hell the other team just doesn’t have one of those nights where they’re hot. College baseball, even more so than college basketball, has a much more even playing field. Teams like #3 Texas A&M (NBCWA Poll) can fall to teams like Centenary College. The midweek game is where depth is exposed. The underdog throws out the best they got to topple the Goliaths.

Michigan 9, North Florida 8
Box Score
Win – Wilson (1-0) Loss – Lott (0-1) Save – Burgoon (1)

Michigan just missed their first weeknight upset at the hands of the North Florida Osprey. In front of 762 fans in a meh attempt at a White Out, Michigan prevailed by the narrow margin of 9-8. If it weren’t for North Florida’s pitching collapsing a bit in the 4th inning, Michigan would have lost this game pretty badly.

Game Summary

North Florida jumped out to a early 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first on three straight singles and a sacrifice fly. Brandon Sinnery, in his first career start, managed to escape the inning from a great throw and relay, Urban to Cislo to Lorenz to get a runner taking too aggressive of a turn around third base. Chris Berset also had a throwing error in the inning trying to catch a runner stealing. His throw got away from him, but the runner would have scored anyways.

Sinnery was yanked after giving up a double in the 2nd inning with two outs. His final line was 1.2 innings pitched, 2 ERs on 6 hits with a strike out. That’s not what Maloney was looking for by any stretch. Hopefully the freshman picks it up when the midweek games pick up during the conference season.

Gerbe, who replaced Sinnery, pitched the next 1.1 innings, giving up a single, double, and sacrifice fly in the 3rd inning. He managed to only give up the single run but he was done for the night.

Michigan came in to the top of the 4 down 3-0. Ryan LaMarre lead off with an infield single to short stop; it was a slow roller that the defender had no shot at making a play with. With a full count, LaMarre went with the pitch, and Dufek grounded to the second baseman, who had no play on LaMarre. One out. McLouth then knocked a pitch to left field toward the line. LaMarre slipped rounding third, but probably wouldn’t have scored anyways. The throw went to the plate, allowing McLouth to advance to second. After an Urban fly out, the UNF pitching staff walked the next three batters forcing in two runs. With the bases still loaded, Kevin Cislo knocked a three run single to center. Cislo advanced to second on a passed ball then stole third, setting up a Toth RBI single. Michigan was up 6-3.

Michigan would tact 3 more runs on in the 5th inning. McLouth knocked his second home run of the season out to lead off the inning. After a Nick Urban single, Chris Berset knocked his own homdinger. That put Michigan up 9-3, to what one would think would be a safe lead.

Well not so fast my friend, North Florida added a run in the 6th from a pair of doubles. In the 7th, Michigan started with an error on Mike Dufek – its never a good sign when you give up an easy out to start an inning. Its worse when you walk the next batter, which we do. Wilson gets a ground ball that looks to be a double play, but we only manage to get the out at second. After giving up another single, Mike Wilson is pulled for Matt Miller. Miller gives up a walk and a single before striking out a batter. Enter Burgoon. After a walk and a hit by pitch, Burgoon finally gets Michigan out of the inning with a fly ball. It’s 9-8.

From here on out, it was pretty quiet. Michigan stranded a runner on third in the 8th. The Osprey just couldn’t get anything going against Burgoon down the stretch.

Well that was closer than it should have been.

Positives

• We didn’t get caught stealing in either of our two attempts
• Nick Urban extends his hitting streak to 5 games
• A win is a win
• This is the best start we’ve had to a season since 1991

Negatives

• Mike Wilson was Mike Wilson yeah of 2008, getting by in ugly ways
• Kenny Fellows ends his hitting streak at 4 games (still batting .412)
• Mike Dufek continued his struggles going 0/5 with 3 runners left on base
• That was way too close for comfort

Notable Players

• Chris Berset – 1/2 2 Rs, 2 RBIs, HR, 2 BBs
• Jake McLouth – 2/5 R, 2 RBIs, HR
• Kevin Cislo – 2/4 R, 3 RBIs, 2B
• Tyler Burgoon – 2.1 IP, H, BB, K

Next game: Friday @ 1pm vs Wisconsin-Milwaukee at the Jacksonville tournament. Preview will be out tonight.

Posted under Baseball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Purdue tonight at 9PM. The game takes place in Crisler Arena (if you have the opportunity, go. I’m sue there are plenty of tickets available) and can be seen on ESPN.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Purdue: National Ranks
Category	Michigan	Purdue	Advantage
Mich eFG% v. Purdue eFG% D	162	93	P
Mich eFG% D v. Purdue eFG%	165	3	PP
Mich TO% v. Purdue Def TO%	17	39	M
Mich Def TO% v. Purdue TO%	167	37	PP
Mich OReb% v. Purdue DReb%	269	291	M
Mich DReb% v. Purdue OReb%	164	128	P
Mich FTR v. Purdue Opp FTR	330	220	PP
Mich Opp FTR v. Purdue FTR	27	46	M
Mich AdjO v. PurdueAdjD	72	3	P
Mich AdjD v. Purdue AdjO	71	79	–

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Ridiculous Manny Harris ejection, team loses composure and game.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has had spurts of brilliance (of course, most of them didn’t result in wins) and not-so-brilliance. Purdue has kept chugging along, getting away with being cheap players defensively, and have beaten up on some fairly high-quality teams, like Michigan State.

The Wolverines have pretty much maintain their rankings in tempo-free land from the previous meeting, and Purdue has gotten a little better offensively, while maintaining their lofty defensive standing.

And…?

I predict pain. The first half of the away game with Purdue should serve as an encouraging sign, but I question this team’s mental state following the Iowa debacle. A loss tonight would pretty much ensure a need to win multiple games in the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the Big Dance. Otherwise, reserve those NIT tickets.

KenPom predicts a 64-61 Purdue win in a 65-possession game.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

UPDATE (3:30pm):  Brandon Sinnery is starting for Michigan, he went 0.1 innings this weekend giving up a hit and a walk.  Also, I missed the 2000 game against the Osprey, who we are 0-1 against, so this is a vengeance game.  Oaks still isn’t listed on the depth chart, despite being listed in the weekly press release.  Seems odd.  Anyone with information, please leave a comment.

Baseball Stream – via Atlantic Sun IPTV, but it’s $5.99 pay per view.  Seems pricey, but at least its out there.

White Out the Wolverines – UNF is planning a White Out for the game tonight.  Make sure you fans going to the game wear something Maize as their colors are White and Navy.  You’ll stand out like a sore thumb, announcing the Michigan presence.  First pitch is 7pm, pitchers are still TBA.  I’m going to guess Mike Wilson for Michigan just because we haven’t seen him yet.

All BigEast/Big10 Challenge Players –Collegebaseball360.com released their attempt at forming a 18 person all tournament team from the weekend. Not an easy thing to do when picking from 18 teams playing 24 games.

Notables for Michigan:

• Starting Pitcher – Eric Katzman (Michigan, LHP, Jr.)
• Relief Pitcher – Tyler Burgoon (Michigan, RHP, So.)
• RF -Nick Urban (Michigan, Sr.)
• DH – Jake McLouth (Michigan, Fr.)

Notably absent? Kenny Fellows. The guy bats .541 with a run, 2 RBIs, and 2 assists in the outfield and he gets nothing. Those 4 times being caught stealing hurt him as he lost the chance to score a few more runs.

Big10 Player of the Week – Nick Urban took Big10 POTW honors this week. Tyler Burgoon and Eric Katzman get the shaft. I can understand Eric Jokisch (NU) getting the nod for the complete game, but Drew Rucinski (OSU)? Let us compare:

Burgoon, Tyler (2-0)

Appearance	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	AB	BF
1	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
2	4.0	3	0	0	0	4	14	14
Total	5.0	3	0	0	0	4	17	17

Rucinski, Drew (1-0, 1 Sv)

Appearance	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	AB	BF
1	3.1	1	0	0	1	3	1	13
2	3.0	2	0	0	0	3	10	10
Total	6.1	3	0	0	1	6	21	23

I mean the guy gave up a walk for crying out loud. And sacrifices? Burgoon scoffs at the sort. He just gets outs.

Poll Watching – Michigan slides up in most polls with the 4-0 start.

Poll	Current	LW
RPI	TBA	TBA
NCBWA	25	30
Collegiate Baseball	28	29
BaseballAmerica	NR	NR
Rivals	NR	NR
USA Today/ESPN	37*	TBA

*In others receiving votes section

No love yet from Rivals, who generally is very reluctant about teams not from the SEC/Big12/Pac10/Big West/ACC. RPI hasn’t been posted anywhere I’ve seen yet (ncaa.com or boyd’s world), which isn’t surprising due to the minimal number of games so far. Coaches poll (USA Today) haven’t posted yet, it will be updated if/when it come in today

Posted under Baseball

Image from netitor.com

@North Florida
7pm – February 25, 2009
Harmon Stadium
Jacksonville, FL
Media: Yet to be released (see relevant links)
Probable Pitchers: Yet to be released
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 0-0, no previous games

Overview

Michigan meets up with the North Florida Ospreys of the Atlantic Sun (A-Sun) conference in its first midweek game of the year. This will also be the first true road game (albeit trivial) for the Wolverines. North Florida finished last year 111th in RPI, one spot ahead of the Big10’s second place team (Purdue). This year, North Florida looks to make a fairly dramatic step backwards. The preseason coaches poll has them projected to finish 5th in the A-Sun (pdf). There has been speculation that with the conference expansion and the inability to make the NCAA tournament, there had been some motivation issues last year. North Florida made the jump from D2 to D1 last year, along with 4 other teams in the A-Sun, and they are noneligible for post season play. Its a stupid rule, but a rule nonetheless.

So Far This Season

The Osprey have started off the season the BankFirst Challenge hosted by Mississippi State. They faced both Northern Illinois and Mississippi State twice during the weekend. Against Northern Illinois, North Florida too both games by a score of 6-3 and 9-3. North Florida’s recaps of games are insanely confusing. Case in point:

Junior Preston Hale held his own well in the three-hole, going 2-for-3 and going 3-for-3 when leading off the inning.

UNF (1-0) had its vaunted First Coast Offense kicking on all cylinders, moving runners to the extra base on almost every chance, going 14-for-27 in advancement opportunities.

Against Mississippi State, UNF lost both games by scores of 7-1 and 9-7. Mississippi State is a lower tier SEC school, finishing 127th in RPI last year. The Osprey ended up batting .257 on the weekend against the week pitching lead primarily by centerfielder Brian Wilson (.444), left fielder Michael Smith (.400) and first basemen Ryan Puskar (.357). One the mound, the team wasn’t very pretty, the exception being starter John Atteo who threw a complete game (3 ERs).

Stars Offensive Starters

The Osprey return four starting players from last year’s starting lineup. They are lead by thrid baseman/left fielder Andrew Hannon and corner outfielder Preston Hale. Hannon was second on the team (highest returning) in batting average at .359 and RBIs at 44. Hannon was a non-factor this past weekend, only playing in one game, going 1/4 with a run and an RBI. Preston Hale batted .350 with 4 homeruns and 34 RBIs. He also lead the team with 16 doubles. Hale was also quiet this weekend, batting on .285 with 3 runs and an RBI.

Second basemen T.J. Thompson hit .317 last year, with 11 doubles, 3 triples, and a home run, but .317 isn’t that intimidating in college. The other returning starter, catcher Michael Gropper hit .317 on the year as well, but that was in limited starting time. Behind the plate, Gropper has a fairly good arm, but he still gave up about 70% of stolen base attempts. David Eldredge has started three of the games so far, but has been meh batting. He did get 4 RBIs in the first outing against Northern Illinois, but he followed that up with two games going 0/3.

Puskar has to be the big highlight so far for the Osprey. The first basemen already has two homeruns, scoring 5 runs and having 9 RBIs (all in the last two games). He and the two other outfielders, Wilson and Smith, have torn the cover off the ball. They’re both batting over .400 and have scored a combined 7 runs in 4 games.

Pitching Starters

I’m not sure who to expect to start this game. The Ospreys have five pitchers coming out of rehab for various surgeries. Any one of them could start against us. I wouldn’t expect any of the starters from the weekend. That limits it to 4 guys I know nothing about. Live with it.

Semi-Relevant Links

There may be some sort of video available from UNF’s website. It says “Watch” and it links you to the A-Sun’s IPTV. While I hope it’s on, I’ll be unavoidably detained by work. Hopefully it has on-demand video for replays. It looks like it might, I just haven’t had time to play with it.

I’ll link up to the MGoBlue audio and game tracker when those come available. The starting pitchers will probably be announced tomorrow as well, I just wanted to get this out before I head out for the day.

Posted under Baseball

Following Michigan’s official-aided choke job in Iowa City last night, the chances of this edition of the Michigan Wolverines are all but eliminated. Of course, if the Wolverines were to go on a run to end the season, taking at least 2 of the last 3 and one in the Big Ten Tournament, they would have a very legitimate argument. However, Last night’s game was considered a must-win because it was the only likely win left on the year. How did it happen?

Michigan actually got pretty good shooting throughout the first half, and in spurts during the second. When David Merritt hit two 3-pointers in one game, I thought the fates were smiling upon Michigan. Then, Manny Harris gets an egregious no-call with under a minute left, followed up with an egregiously bad call against DeShawn Sims on the rebound. Iowa is able to tie the game with free throws, and take it to overtime. Once they got there, hot shooting from them, and poor shooting from Michigan, aided in large part due to Manny Harris’s being benched (more on that later) and poor shot selection, led to a Hawkeye victory.

Officiating
I honestly don’t know what Manny Harris did to just about every referee in the Big Ten (and nation), but nobody is officiated more unfairly (at least in a negative way) than Harris. He can’t draw a blocking foul to save his life, as evidenced by perhaps the worst-called charging foul of Michigan’s season, when Iowa’s defender wasn’t even remotely close to being in position, and what should have been an and-1 for Harris turned into a 3-pointer for Iowa on the other end, keeping the Hawkeyes in the first half early. A similarly awful no-call happened near the end of regulation, where Harris was completely mugged going to the rack, and even Iowa fans were completely dumbfounded that there was no call. Compounding the incompetency of the officials, they called a horrid foul on DeShawn Sims (instead of what should have been a jump ball), effectively handing the game on a plate to Iowa.

Of course, officials aren’t perfect, and the Wolverines het their share of bad calls as well, but it’s the impact of the calls that go against Michigan that has killed us this year. The charge on Harris changed the game, because if it was called as it (quite obviously) should have been, Michigan starts turning that game into a blowout. The no-call and bad call at the end of regulation decided who would win the game, something that shouldn’t have happened. When bad calls go both ways, but the bad calls against Michigan effectively render the best player on the floor useless, it’s going to hurt one team far more than the other.

As for the “don’t whine about the officials, because the game shouldn’t have been that close in the first place” argument, that’s bullshit. Things happen that cause games to be close, even when they shouldn’t be (and let’s not forget that one call fairly early in the game likely dictated that it would be a close one). Regardless of whether the game “should” be close or not, it was. The officials, through their incompetence, then decided who would win the game. That’s unfair, either way.

Harris Benched in OT
Manny sat on the bench through the entire overtime period, leading to rampant speculation among Michigan fans and even the announce team for BTN. Nobody really knows the true answer, except it probably had something to do with a) Manny being ineffective late in regulation b) Manny saying something unwise towards John Beilein c) Manny feeling like he couldn’t contribute to the team, and/or d) Beilein feeling like Manny couldn’t contribute to the team.

Before all the armchair coaches slam Beilein for “the worst coaching decision of his career,” think about that. His career spans every single level of basketball, and multiple decades as a head coach. He knows more about basketball than any of you. He probably knows more about basketball than most of you put together. Dude knows what he’s doing, and you don’t. End of Story.

The Upshot
As mentioned above, Michigan’s bubble status has moved from “likely to be in” to “in big trouble.” The game against Purdue is one of the last chances to prove they belong, and the final two road games are important as well. This team is growing, and there is no reason to give up on them now. They weren’t expected to make the tournament when the season began (perhaps not even the postseason), so even if they fall to the NIT, I know I’ll be in Crisler Arena, cheering my ass off for them. Will You?

Minnesota and Iowa UFRs (perhaps abbreviated) coming later this week.

Posted under Basketball

To follow up the recap, I’ll be doing a weekly look at the team stats.  I won’t post any pitching graphs for until at least next week as many of our pitchers have only thrown once so far. It’s hard to see progressions from that.

A couple stats stood out to me this weekend. First off, our lead off and 2-hole hitters are both batting under .200. Kevin Cislo is batting .077 and is has an onbase percentage of .364. This isn’t going to cut it as we move forward into the season. Hopefully this was just Cislo either in a small slump, or just early season jitters. He really needs to step it up over the next week.

Anthony Toth is only batting .182 so far. Toth at least has the redeeming quality of a .582 on base percentage thats to 7 walks and 1 hit-by-pitch. Right now its Toth who is setting up the guys behind the order rather than Cislo. Toth is scoring every other time he reaches base, which is a great ratio.

Much of his run scoring is attributed to the great play thus far of LaMarre, McLouth, and Urban. LaMarre has acting more like a 2-hole hitter with the slow start by Cislo, which has been a great boost to the team. LaMarre is a good singles hitter who is setting the plate for the two bats behind him. McLouth has gotten the most credit so far with a .412 batting average and 4 RBIs. Urban is batting .471 and also has 4 RBIs. What’s more impressive is Nick’s .737 slugging percentage (bases/at-bat). He’s our only hitter who has really been getting extra base hits. I’m not sure yet if this is a good thing, as we are still winning, but you’d like to see a few more batters capable of getting a few more doubles here and there.

Dufek in the middle of those three is the team RBI leader with 5, but that golden sombrero day on Sunday sent his batting average down to .214. Berset had the same kind of weekend, batting only .100 with a run and an RBI. Lorenz has been a non-factor offensively, going 0-8 with a walk so far.

The bright spot of the bottom of the order – if not the whole order – has to be Kenny Fellows in the 9-hole. Fellows leads the team with a .500 batting average (7/14) and a .533 on base percentage. Being isolated from the rest of the hitters, Fellows really hasn’t had that much of a chance to get many RBIs or score many runs, but his average will either get him moved up in the lineup, or once Cislo comes around, he becomes a leadoff hitter at the bottom of the order.

Excel Graphs!

Here we can see the team batting average over the course of the season (each point is cumulated stats). Right now it doesn’t mean too much, but over the course of the season, I plan to track it pretty closely. The independent variable is the game number (USF =1, Purdue =2, etc). The blue line is indicative of the team batting average. You can see we hit better in the first two games, and we’ve been working our way back down in the second two. We’re not doing too badly as a team. Right now we’re hitting .288 as a team, which is a bit lower than I’d like. The average for the NCAA has been between .291 and .297 for the last ten years.

Also, another reason the average went down can be seen in the raised on base percentage (red line). We gained several more walks and hit by pitches in the last two games (18) compared to the first two games (9). These walks took away a hit or two from some of our better batters, leaving just our weaker batters accounting for more at bats.

Slugging percentage is the yellow line. Slugging percentage, as stated earlier, is bases per at-bat. Our first game had 3 doubles and a homerun driving up the total number of bases. Game three saw a double, a triple, and a homerun. For the most part we’ve been all about the singles (31 singles out of 38 hits). Like I said earlier, I’d like to see a little more pop, but as long as we stay consistently hitting singles, we will score runs.

A couple areas I’m worried about right now are base running and defense. Base running is the big problem area for me right now. We went up against four meh catchers this weekend but only went 4/12 on stolen base attempts, and we were picked off 3 times (should have been 4). I like the aggressive approach to the game, but we have to be smarter on how we go at it. Part of the reason Fellows isn’t scoring runs is because he is 0/4 on stolen bases. Each of our 1-4 hitters have also been caught stealing once (Cislo 2/3, Toth 1/2, LaMarre 1/2, Dufek 0/1).

Defense is a little bit less of a worry, but it did stick out in the Purdue game when we had three errors. The good news is that 2 of our 4 errors came from backup players rather than starters; Crank had one at catcher and Kalcyznski at third. The other two came from Toth and Lorenz. This will probably happen quite a bit as these two first year starters get used to the game. Lorenz is a real question mark at third in my mind. The kid was a high school short stop who has had limited play over the last year and is a true freshman. It may take him a full year to really get third base down.

Posted under Baseball

Normally these will be a bit shorter as I won’t have to go through as many different teams in a weekend and we will also only have 3 games instead of four.

I wanted to start with a little complaint about Friday’s multimedia. I had quite a bit of fun just trying to see anything about the game yesterday. I loaded up the CSTV Gametracker (stats) well before the game started. I renewed my long running battle with MGoBlue’s multimedia player well before game time to ensure it would be working. The media player doesn’t work with firefox (huge downer), and I am generally only 50-50 to get it working in IE. I even checked out WBCN’s sport stream to make sure I had every avenue covered.

One o’clock passed with no luck. The media player’s got nothing for the baseball game, just loads then stops. Gametracker is stuck in pregame. I go to try to refresh it by opening the link from MGoBlue, and they replaced the link by directing me to an old stat tracker (a USF vs Notre Dame game last season) at the USF site. The sports stream even let me down as they were playing the Duke vs UM basketball game in syndication. Well this is a huge suckfest.

So 38 minutes after the first pitch, MGoBlue finally gets a hold of the radio feed. It’s in the 2nd inning. I go and check the stat link at MGoBlue, its still not CSTV, but they did link to a CiL live blog on USF’s website. It started out fairly quiet, but about an hour into the game, a large contingent of Wolverine fans took over the board. It was good to see the fan showing on another site. The moderators from USF were pretty good about letting Michigan fans say their piece, but there were some posts not approved from myself that probably could/should have been. That happens in the CiL’s though.

So while the technology wasn’t all it could be, things ended out alright. We had only missed a one run USF first, and Michigan going down silently in the first two.

Notes from the Challenge

Over 50 scouts in the north and midwest regions were in attendance this weekend, as this offered them a great chance to check out prospects with limited travel.

Saturday saw what is thought to be the first game ever to be umpired by a woman in D1 baseball, much less two women at the same time (yes, I specifically linked those words as a single phrase).  As an umpire myself, those lady’s got some balls to go out their on the field with men.

The Big10 went 5-3 on Friday, on 4-4 Saturday, and 6-2 on Sunday to take the Challenge by a total margin of 15-9.  Great showing by the Big10 as a whole.  The first two days of the Challenge, most Big10 teams either just squeaked out a victory or were totally blasted out of the ball park.  Sunday wasn’t quite as close on the victories, but there were some pretty bad losses still.  Michigan came out the best looking.  Ohio State was the only other Big10 team to emerge undefeated.  Indiana went 2-1, losing only (read: badly) to St. John’s.  Purdue went 1-2 losing to both USF and Notre Dame.  Those aren’t bad losses for the Boilermakers.  Notre Dame was another extra inning game for them, their second in as many days.

USF Recap

Michigan 6, USF 5
Box Score
Win – Burgoon (1-0) Loss – Salgueiro (0-1)

Images from mgoblue.com

This game started out rough for Fetter and the Wolverines. USF jumped out to a quick lead with 1 run in the first inning from 3 singles. Fetter managed to get out of the inning by inducing a ground out and then striking out a batter, his first of 6 Ks.

The second inning also hosted a pair of USF singles, but the problems began with an error by third basemen John Lorenz. Lorenz threw wide of the bag allowing the runners an extra base. A run scored on that play, and the following single. Fetter locked down after this inning, allowing only one hit in the next 3 frames.

Michigan was fairly quiet on offense as well. McLouth did knock his first homer of the year in his first career at bat in the second inning. In the fourth, Toth walked, advanced to third on a LaMarre single, then scored on a Dufek ground out. Fontanez really had our number at the plate. He was economical with his pitch count and managed to pick off two of our runners.

Matt Gerbe relieved Fetter in the 6th, pitching 2 good innings, and being beaten up in his third inning of work. He ended up giving up 2 runs on 2 singles, a double, a walk and a hit-by-pitch. This inning looked to put the nail in the coffin for Michigan; on the CiL, I figured Coach Prado would bring in Salguiero and close out the game. At the time, I thought we were done.

Then Coach Prado made the decision to bring in his middle reliever Teddy Kaufman. Kaufman immediately loaded the bases when Crank crank’d (I’ve been waiting all off season to use that) a double, Fellows walked, and Cislo was hit by the pitch. Salguiero entered the game here.

I liked our odds with LaMarre at the plate. He is a good singles hitter and doesn’t strike out much. He didn’t disappoint, looping a single into right field plating 2 runs. We got lucky to tie the game as LaMarre should have been picked off in a first and third situation, but on a throw went wild allowing Cislo to score the tying run.

Burgoon came in for his first pressure situation of the season, tied in the 9th. He responded with a quick 1-2-3 inning right through the heart of the order. The bottom of the ninth started nicely with a Nick Urban double off the left center wall. Instead of bunting the runner to third, Maloney gambled on Chris Berset and Tim Kalczynski. Neither could move the runner over, leaving the inning in the hands of Kenny Fellows. Fellows hit a quick ground ball back up the middle, but Sam Mende, the USF shortstop could only knock it down as the speedy Urban came around to score. Victory. As I said in the preview, Salguiero can be high risk-high reward, we caught him on the high-risk appearance.

Timely hitting was the key here. USF out-hit us 11-10, but they stranded an extra 4 men on base.

Notable Stats

• Nick Urban – 3/4 2 2b, R
• Ryan LaMarre – 2/4 2 RBI, SB
• Kenny Fellows – 3/3 R, RBI, BB, 1 CS
• Jason McLouth – 1/4 Solo HR
• Tyler Burgoon – 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, W

Purdue Recap

Michigan 4, Purdue 3 (10 innings)
Box Score
Win – Burgoon (2-0) Loss – Wurdack (0-1)

To start day two of the season, Michigan came out looking a little sluggish early. The Wolverines registered a hit in each of the first 5 innings, but they just couldn’t get any runs on the board.

Purdue on the other hand go on the board in the second inning in the midst of a four hit inning. Backup catcher Coley Crank also had an error in the inning while attempting to pick off a runner at first base, leading to one unearned run. Purdue would score again in the top of the 6th when Purdue outfielder Jon Moore reached on a Tim Kalczynski error at third base. Moore eventually would score after a pair of Purdue hits.

Post Game Celebrating, Image from mgoblue.com

Michigan responded in the bottom half of the 6th managed 4 hits in the inning to tie the game at 3-3. The next few innings went by quickly. Purdue started to form a rally in the 7th, but Tyler Burgoon entered the game with 2 runners on and no outs. He induced a pop out to himself on an attempted bunt, struck out a batter, and Chris Berset threw out Purdue DH Jonathan Lilly attempting to steal third.

Burgoon gave up a hit in the 9th and two in the 10th, all singles, but the Boilermakers couldn’t muster up any runs out of it. In the bottom of the 10th, Michigan got started with a Toth walk. Toth stole second on strike three of the LaMarre at-bat, forcing Purdue to face Dufek with a runner on second. Purdue elected to intentionally walk Dufek and set up a potential inning ending double play. Urban then flew out to shallow right field, Toth tagged up and just made it into third base before the ball reached the base. McLouth finished the game with a single up the middle, scoring Toth. Victory.

This victory is extremely encouraging as Purdue is the team picked as the team capable of usurping Michigan in the Big10 this year. And while we don’t play them in the season, this game will go a long way to give our guys confidence come tournament time.

Not enough praise can be directed to our pitching staff after this game. They only gave up one earned run early in the game. Kolby Wood gave us a good start, he just wasn’t helped out by the defense. Sinnery got us out of trouble when we needed him and Tyler Burgoon is on fire right now. Tyler was by and large the player of the game. I have to imagine he’s done for the weekend, and probably at least until the Wisconsin-Milwaukee game next Friday. He’s already pitched 5 innings this weekend. That’s a lot to start the season.

Notable Stats

• Tyler Burgoon – 4 IP, 3 H, 0Rs, 4Ks, W
• Mike Dufek – 2/3 RBI, R, 2 BBs
• Jason McLouth – 3/5 2 RBIs
• Anthony Toth – 0/2 3BBs, 2 Rs, 1 SBs, 1 CS
• Nick Urban – 2/5

Cincinnati Recap

Michigan 6, Cincinnati 1
Box Score
W – Travis Smith (1-0) L – Tyler Smith (0-1)

Mike Dufek’s Homerun, Image from mgoblue.com

This game Michigan came out swinging it hot. The Wolverines plated 3 in the 1st inning with a pair of walks sandwiching a single, followed by a RBI sacrifice fly by Jason McLouth and a 2 RBI single by Nick Urban. The three lead was all the M pitching staff would need to finish off the BearCats. Travis Smith gave up 7 hits and one run in 5 innings of work while reliever Matt Miller shut down the Cincinnati offense over the last 4 innings. Smith ended the night striking out 9 batters, being named Aaron Fitt’s Best Escape Artist. Not to be outdone, Miller struck out 7 while walking none and giving up 2 hits. That is outstanding.

The next few innings passed without much. The BearCats had at least one hit in each of the first four innings, but like Michigan against Purdue, they just weren’t getting runners across the plate. In the 5th, they managed to get on the board when Travis Smith began to lose his touch. After giving up a lead off double and the runner advancing to third on a fly out, Smith walked a batter and hit the next two, forcing in a run. Smith managed to get a ground ball on the following batter, ending the inning with a 4-6-3 double play. Cincinnati would never threaten to score again.

Michigan scored again in the 7th. Anthony Toth singled and Ryan LaMarre was hit by a pitch, setting up this:

This missile cleared the berm behind the right-field fence and bounced halfway up the chain-link fence that shields U.S. 19. And it got there in a hurry. I haven’t seen a ball hit that hard since Dominguez hit two massive homers for Louisville in the 2007 College World Series.

As we used to say in high school, he hit that one to the sequoias. And while Aaron Fitt might have screwed up the name on that description (he incorrectly attributes the home run to Cincinnati’s Mike Spina), I’m sure Mike Dufek appreciates the compliment. In the end, mark it down another victory for Michigan, putting them at 3-0 to start the season.

Notable Stats

• Mike Dufek – 1/3 3 RBIs, 2Rs, 2 BBs
• Nick Urban – 3/5 2b, 3b (that’s a HR from a cycle)
• Ryan LaMarre – 2/3 2Rs
• Anthony Toth – 2/4 R, 2BBs
• Travis Smith – 5 IP, 7 Hs, 1 R, 2 BBs, 9 Ks
• Matt Miller – 4 IP, 2 Hs, 0 Rs, 0 BBs, 7 Ks

St. John’s Recap

Michigan 4, St. John’s 2
Box Score
W – Eric Katzman (1-0)  L- Nick Luisi (0-1)

Katzman vs St. John’s, Image from mgoblue.com

Michigan jumped out with the lead in the top of the 1st inning when St. John’s starter Nick Luisi came out a little rusty.  He walked Cislo and Toth on a combined 9 pitches.  After being settled down by his pitching coach, he came back sharp to get LaMarre and Dufek, but a Jason McLouth infield single to third ruffled the starter’s feathers just enough for him to hand a fastball on the outside part of the plate to Nick Urban, who drove the pitch right back up the middle.  Cislo and Toth scored to put Michigan up 2-0.

Eric Katzman started for Michigan and was he ever on.  Eric only worked himself into trouble once in the third where he gave up a single, double, then sacrifice fly to give up a run,.  This was the best career start for Katzman, not to mention his longest at 7 innings.  He only allowed 7 hits, 1 run, and 4 walks while striking out four batters.  His breaking ball and side arm fastballs were leaving batters guessing and flailing wildly.

Michigan manufactured a run in the 6th inning. Chris Berset walked and was sacrificed over by Lorenz.  Fellows then lined a single to left, and Berset just beat the tag at the plate.

With Burgoon unavailable, Dufek came in for the 2 inning save opportunity.  In the 8th, Dufek breezed right through the line up.  Michigan came into the top of the 9th and was handed a run on a silver platter.  The St. John’s relievers Aremento and Cole walked the first four batters of the inning to give up a run.  Valcarcel came in and stopped the bleeding, but Michigan had a crucial insurance run to extend the lead to 3 runs.

Dufek came out to close the game down in the 9th, but faced some trouble.  After giving up a lead off walk, Dufek eventually gave up a double off the wall, giving up a run.  That would be the last base runner of the game though, as the next batter grounded out to end the game.  Victory.

Katzman was the hero of this game.  He held a team that had averaged 16.5 runs per game this weekend and held them to just one in 7 innings.  I’d include Mike Dufek as a “team pitching” effort, but Dufek’s offense was so bad today, he doesn’t deserve the credit on defense.  Mike managed to go 0/4 with 4 Ks.  Yes my friends, that’s a Golden Sombrero.  He narrowly avoided the Texas-5-gallon hat in the 9th.  He successfully fouled off 7 pitches in a gritty walk that brought in an RBI.  Very Eckstein-ish.

Notable Stats

• Eric Katzman – 7 IP, 7 Hs, 1 R, 4 K, 2 BBs, W
• Mike Dufek – 0/4 BB, 4 Ks (Golden Sombrero), RBI, 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 Ks
• Kevin Cislo – o/2 3 BBs, 2 Rs
• Jake McLouth – 3/4
• Nick Urban – 1/5 2 RBIs
• Chris Berset – 1/2 2 BBs, R
• Kenny Fellows – 2/4 RBI

I’ll check out the teams overall stats in my next post.  This one seemed long enough.

Posted under Baseball