Also available on MGoBlog and UMHoops. Things should get rolling shortly before the game begins.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tonight at the awkward start time of 5PM. The game takes place in Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Cyrus Tate didn’t play for the Hawkeyes, and the Wolverines left Crisler Arena with a dominating victory. Manny was Manny, DeShawn was DeShawn, and this was one of the first glimpses that Michigan fans got of CJ Lee-as-defensive-specialist, a role that has seen his playing time increse dramatically over the last few games. The roleplayer that stepped up in that game was Zack Novak, who drilled a few shots from the outside, and did his scrappy undersized white guy thing. The final score of 64-49 was even a little closer than the game felt.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s offense has been on a fairly continuous downward spiral. Part of that is better competition, and part of it is simply a young team with very little depth. Two things are encouraging though, and they are an improvement on defense and a stellar offensive performance against Minnesota, a team that has relied on its own defense lately. If the offensive renaissance can become a trend, rather than a one-time deal, Michigan fans will feel much better about the rest of the season.

Iowa has gotten slightly worse in most respects, largely due to Cyrus Tate’s continued absence from the team. Tate played some minutes in Iowa’s recent game against Purdue, but his ankle is still not nearly 100%, and it’s unclear whether he’ll even play, much less be the effective player he is when healthy. Guard Jeff Peterson has also battled injuries of late, and it’s unclear whether he will play.

And…?

If Tate and Peterson are both out, or even limited in a big way, this is a game the Wolverines have no business losing. Even if the two play, Michigan needs this win for their tournament hopes to stay alive in any big way, while Iowa’s season is mostly lost, unless they can scrape together an NIT bid over their last 5 games.One key factor to note: The Hawkeyes have had 8 days of rest for this game, allowing them to prepare in-depth for anything Michigan might throw at them, and also giving them a little time to get healthy.

Despite Michigan’s (slightly) improved play of late, and Iowa’s implosion (2-9 in their last 11), KenPom predicts a 59-58 Iowa win in a 56-possession game. The stakes are obvious, and Michigan fans should tune in to hopefully watch their Wolverines get one step closer to a return to the NCAA tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Game 1

This season is going to give me a heart attack. Michigan wins its second in a row to open the season on a walk off single, this time in the 10th inning. Tyler Burgoon gets the win again, he’s now on pace to win 55 games this season, shattering the previous record by over 30. He pitched 4 innings of shut out relief, keeping Michigan close.  He was definitely the player of the game.  Maloney didn’t even warm anyone else up the down the stretch of the game.  That’s the kind of confidence Rich has in Tyler.

McLouth was a hero again this time with the walk off single. He went 3-5 in the game with 2 RBIs. That puts him at .444 for the season with 7 total bases.  Toth also did a great job working the count.  He earned three walks in the game, including one to set up the winning run.

The one area that looked ugly though was baserunning.  We were caught three times today.  We’re slightly more aggressive this year, but it has yet to pay off.  It’ll be interesting to see if we keep up this level of intensity on the base paths or if Maloney will change up his plan of attack.

As said previously, I’ll have the full recap up for the weekend sometime on Monday. We have a quick turn around as Michigan faces Cincinnati in about an hour and a half.

Game 2

Michigan finally decided to get ahead and stay ahead in this game.  We gave Travis Smith a 3 run lead before he even took the mound, and that was all we needed.  Smith and Matt Miller combined to give up only one run while striking out 16.  Mike Dufek added a 3 run homer, his first of the year, as insurance late, but even that wasn’t needed.

Aaron Fitt at Baseball America described the Dufek bomb thusly:

[Mike Dufek] hit a Chris Dominguez-like bomb in the top of the seventh, a three-run shot that gave the Wolverines a 6-1 lead. This missile cleared the berm behind the right-field fence and bounced halfway up the chain-link fence that shields U.S. 19. And it got there in a hurry. I haven’t seen a ball hit that hard since Dominguez hit two massive homers for Louisville in the 2007 College World Series.

Of course Aaron screwed up the name of the player, citing Mike Spina (of Cincinnati) instead, but the description of the homerun was spot on with Dufek’s blast.  In other hitting standouts, Nick Urban also had quite a day, just a home run shy of the cycle.

We’re off for the rest of the night.  Tomorrow is St. John’s, who scored 12 on Iowa in the first inning in route to a 18-3 shellacking, yikes.

Posted under Baseball

Image from Ezteams.com

St. John’s
February 22, 2009 1pm
Red McEwen Field (USF Campus)
Tampa, Fla.
Media:  Audio and  Stats
Home Team: St. John’s
Probable Pitchers: Eric Katzman (LHP, 0-0) vs Nick Luis (LHP, 0-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 3-3
Last Series/Game: Michigan 12 – St. John’s 17, March 2005

I want to preface this with a little something: the St. John’s Baseball page is by far the worst for information. Here I am working up a preview just weeks before the season, and the sports information department has done nothing further than updating the schedule for the teams. Up until Thursday, the site also had a Windows Media Player on auto start on every page. Was it ever annoying to have Coach Kim Barnes Arico start an interview every 20 seconds. Luckily, the Red Storm installed a new video player as of Friday… after I stopped needing their website. Along with this update, it appears they have actually put some information on the team up… the DAY BEFORE THE SEASON STARTS. This team was the BigEast Champion last year, and this is as excited as they get?

So onto baseball. St. John’s is the first of three 2008 tournament team Michigan will face in the next few weeks. St. John’s has been a beacon for northern schools lately, posting three straight 40 wins seasons (generally good enough to qualify any team for the NCAA tourney). Last year, St. John’s received the lone at-large bid given to northern mid-majors with a 41-14 record (20-7 in BigEast). They won the regular season BigEast title but slipped in the conference tournament, leading to Louisville taking the BigEast automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. This year the Red Storm are predicted to finish quite a bit lower (4th in the BigEast Coaches’ Preseason Poll), but they do return seven offensive starters, two members of the starting rotation, and a majority of their bullpen.

Stars

Carlos Del Rosario Image from RedStorm.com

St. John’s returns this year with quite the offense, returning 5 of their top 6 hitters from last season. Carlos Del Rosario will be the big bat in the middle of the lineup to keep your eye on. Last year he batted .347 with a team high .563 slugging percentage as a All Big East First Team left fielder. Del Rosario lead the team in runs scored with 38.

Del Rosario was the second highest batting average on the team, right after returning junior center fielder Brian Kemp (.360). Kemp is also a threat on the base paths. He has lead the team in steals in each of the last two seasons. Last year he had 16 steals in 21 chances. Kemp is one of those pesky batters that hardly ever strikes out and tends to get hit by pitches. He was hit 12 times last year accounting for half his total walks.

The next big returner is senior catcher Danny Benedetti, who last year batted .342 with 14 doubles. That is damn good for a catcher in any league. When behind the plate, Benedetti isn’t all that strong. Last year runners stole 19 bases and were only caught 18 times. His pass ball numbers aren’t overwhelming, 5 over the whole season. If we get on base, expect him to be tested, especially if we face a right handed pitcher (more about this later).

The Red Storm’s leading RBI producer (45 on the year) returns this season in 1B/OF Paul Karmas. As a freshman last year, he tied for the most at-bats on the team (218), lead the team in total hits (68), and doubles (17). He’s thought to be sticking to just first base this year.

Sophomore Greg Hopkins also returns to take over third base (he also spent time at first base and DH). Last year, Hopkins posted a .304 batting average with 12 doubles and 5 home runs (highest of any returning starter). I fully expect these five players to make up the first 5 batters in the lineup.

Other Position Players

Gino Matias will be the returning starter at second base. The senior is a small second basemen at a listed 5’7″, which likely means even less. Despite his limited strike zone, his walk to strike out ratio is 11:31. That’s a lot of strike outs for a little guy. His batting average was only .280 last year, but he was second on the team with 42 runs scored. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bat lead off or in the 9-hole as someone to set the table for the big bats at the top of the order. Matias does tend to try to steal more than most others on the team. Last year he was 9 for 14.

Junior Tim Morris, left handed first baseman and outfielder will be working to solidify himself in the lineup last year after being used sparingly. In 40 games, Morris made 25 starts. His .283 batting average wasn’t much to write home about, but he did have 3 home runs, 3 triples, and 6 doubles on the year. With a full season’s worth of at-bats, he could have some much more impressive numbers. What kept him out of the starting line up last year was his walks to strike out ratio, 4:35. That’s just unacceptable unless you’re Sammy Sosa.

Shortstop is a black hole currently. Junior Mike Martinez may have a shot, but there are two freshman, Matt Wessinger and Joe Pannick, who may be given a shot too. The two freshman have a size advantage on Martinez, but there isn’t much out there to indicate who will take over the position.

As for DH, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karmas or Morris take this spot opening room in the outfield for sophomore Scott Ferrara. Ferrara had limited use last year, but he does appear positioned to be a big contributor next season. The other option would be junior backup catcher Joe Witkowski. This would provide slightly more consistency between games as Benedetti will definitely DH in games he does not start.

Pitching

This will be short and sweet. The Red Storm lost all 4 of their primary starters and their closer. Woo Rebuilding Year!

Miguel Valcarcel, Image from RedStormSports.com

St. John’s does return a total of 10 starts (by 3 players) from last year, 8 of which were by Senior Jason Cole. Cole was 3-1 last year with a 4.72 ERA. He held the second highest opponent batting average on the team at .271.

The highest opponent batting average was .309, by Senior righthander Rich Armento. Armento had one start last year, but it was out of desperation due to lack of arms available. Armento had a team worst 7.66 ERA last season in just 22.1 innings pitched.

The wild card for the Red Storm is Puerto Rican pitcher Miguel Valcarcel. The righty was 0-0 over 36.1 innings last year including one start. His 3.44 ERA is tops among returners. There has been some talk of him becoming the team’s ace this year, but that has been just speculation as far as I can tell. He had started quite a bit as a freshman, 2 years ago, with some success.

Michigan will be facing  lefty Nick Luisi.  Luisi is a redshirt senior who hasn’t pitched in over a year for St. John’s due to some major surgery on his arm.  Luisi is one of the two team captains this year for the Red Storm, but we don’t really know what to expect out of him.  For his career, Luisi is 5-3 witha  3.36 ERA over 21 appearances (7 starts).  I’d try to get more information on him, but St. John’s website is horrible for information.  The last update on his player profile is 2005.

Semi-Relevant Reading:
Challenge Overview (RedStormSports.com, don’t click on the weekly release, it’s the release from last year’s NCAA regional)

Posted under Baseball

Image from GoBearCats.com

Cincinnati
February 21, 2009
4pm
Brighthouse Field
Clearwater, Fla.
Media:  Audio and  Stats
Home Team: Cincinnati
Probable Pitchers: Travis Smith (0-0) vs Tyler Smith (0-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 4-6
Last Series/Game: Michigan 5 – Cincinnati 2, May 1930

Overview
In the second game for Michigan in the Big10/BigEast Challenge is with the University of Cincinnati BearCats. Despite ending the season one win away from winning the BigEast tournament (39-20 overall record, 19-8 BigEast record), Cincinnati will be the weakest team Michigan will face in the challenge; the BearCats are a team picked by the BigEast coaches to finish in 5th place. As you see above, we haven’t played Cincinnati in recent history. All 10 games were played while Ray Fisher (whom the stadium is named after) was coach, between 1922 and 1930. Records don’t even indicate where the games were played, just the score.

Stars

Mike Spina, Image from GoBearCats.com

Cincinnati returns two key players on offense, both preseason BigEast team members, in senior third basemen Mike Spina and senior right fielder Cameron Satterwhite. Spina is the team’s top returning hitter from a year ago with an average of .377, team leading 79 RBIs, BigEast leading homerun total of 21, and BigEast leading .731 SLUG%. This 45th round draft pick of the Minnesota Twins was a monster. He holds the Cincinnati school record for those home run and RBI totals. A key will be to keep him in the ballpark. Last year, more than half of Spina’s homeruns came in multi-homerun games (he had six games with two home runs). He will most likely batting third in the lineup for the BearCats this season.

Following behind him in the cleanup spot will be Cameron Satterwhite, a name that may ring a bell for some Big10 baseball fans. Satterwhite was originally a commit to Indiana, where he played 21 games in 2006. Michigan didn’t face Indiana that year, but he did bat .371 in 26 games for the Hoosiers. Satterwhite batted .364 last season with 61 RBIs, 14 homeruns, and 21 doubles. Satterwhite may be the most valuable player for the BearCats because he forces teams to pitch to Spina. Hopefully being the second game of the season, we may catch both of these players before they really get their bats going.

Other Starters

Outside of these two, the BearCats also return junior left fielder Jamel Scott. Scott batted .311 last season in the two hole. Most impressively, he was able to swipe 35 stolen bases. He will be a threat every time he reaches base.

There is a chance that Scott may start at second base, he played a few games there last year, and last year’s team leader Josh Harrison graduated, leaving a vacancy. That being said, it does sound like true freshman T.J. Jones will be the starting second basemen. Jones is a small (5’8″) local product, so there is no telling how good he may be.

Also returning is sophomore shortstop Chris Peters. Peters was good enough to start at shortstop from day one on campus, but he did play like a freshman. Peters only bat .241 on the season and committed 12 errors. The final returning starter is the lone left handed bat returning, first baseman Kevin Johnson. Johnson and Peters were consistently the 8 and 9 hole hitters on the team and appear to offer little threat at the plate.  Johnson has good power, knocking 7 homeruns last year, but his average is a measly .250.  He is much better as a fielder though, owning a .991 fielding percentage.  Don’t expect too many balls to get past him.

As of this point, we don’t really know what to expect behind the plate with first year starter and JUCO transfer Jim Jacquot trying to earn and keep his spot. He is described as big enough to handle the job, but he has yet to compete at the D-1 level.

The final outfield slot will be filled by JUCO transfer Lance Durham.  Little is know about him other than hitting .338 last year for Kaskaskia College.  Junior college numbers tend to be a poor way to judge a players ability.  Pitchers in JUCO are either immensely awesome (but they can’t qualify for college or have behavior problems to keep them out of the pros) or immensely awful.  Kaskaskiais a fairly successful program and Durham appears to be one of their top products of late as most others players have just advanced to the D2 level.  Durham was a 6th round draft pick of the Tigers, but forewent signing to finish his degree.

Sophomore Justin Riddell will start the year at designated hitter.  He made 23 starts at DH last year with meh results.  His batting average was only .272 over the 40 games he made appearances in.  Riddell was very streaky last year, recording 10 multi-hit games in 35 starts.  Those games accounted for well over half his hits.

Pitchers

Michael Hill, Image from GoBearCats.com

The BearCats also return three of their top four starters on the mound in senior RHP Michael Hill, junior LHP Brian Garman, and junior RHP Tyler Smith. Michael Hill is the team’s definite ace. Hill went 6-4 last year with a team best 3.46 ERA in 15 appearances (12 starts). He posted 7.25 K/9-innings while maintaining a 16:65 walks to strikeout ratio which is pretty good for a college pitcher. Hill’s average start last season was about 6 1/3 innings, which meant the bullpen can be brought out early. If Hill gets used in their opener against Purdue, they may be breaking out the bullpen early in the classic. This generally leads to great results for opposing offenses.

If Hill is used agaisnt Purdue, my bet is we see Brian Garman. Garman has made some large strides this offseason after having a fairly rough ending to last year. Garman ended the year with a respectable 5-3 record spanning 15 appearances (9 starts). Garman’s problem was his 6.24 ERA and .301 opponent batting average. Garman may be a solid choice to start against the Wolverines due to the high number of left handers in the Michigan lineup (for you non-baseball people out there, statistics suggest that it is harder to hit a person who is the same dominate hand as the batter, such as left handed pitcher to left handed batter).

If it is not Garman, it may be right hander Tyler Smith. Smith was 3-3 in 13 appearances (12 starts) with a 4.27 ERA. Smith is more of a strikeout pitcher with 8.55 K/9-inning, but he also tends to issue more walks (23:50 walk to strikeout ratio).

Update:  Although this was posted today, I received word about an hour ago that Tyler Smith is indeed the starter for our game.  I wish I had more information on him, but alas, I work the hand I’m dealt.

Relief

In relief, Cincinnati returns its top closer and setup man. Senior RHP Jake Geglein, the 2009 team captain, returns with his 3-0 record and 9 saves. His 2.30 ERA, .267 opponent batting average, and 36 Ks in 43 innings are impressive. Geglein is currently 4th all-time at Cincinnati with 11 saves (they aren’t as common in the college game). Setting up Geglein will be Senior RHP Billy Welsh. Welsh only made it into 17 innings in 13 appearances last season, but posted a 1-0 record with 3 saves. His 2.08 ERA and .190 opponent batting averages were a team best.

Links of Various Relevancy

UC Preview Part 1: Overview and Catchers (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 2: Middle Infielders (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 3: Corner Infielders (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 4: Outfielders (GoBearCats.com)
UC Preview Part 5: Pitchers (GoBearcats.com, to be released Friday)
Weekend Preview (GoBearCats.com)

Posted under Baseball

Now that is how you start a season right there.  Down 5-2 to start the 8th inning, Michigan loads the bases, scores three runs to tie.   Burgoon comes in to shut down the USF lineup in the top of the 9th.  We get a lead off double to start the ninth.  Kenny Fellows gets just enough of the ball to score the runner from second on a ground ball up the middle.  Game over, pandemonium on the Michigan side of the stands (I can imagine), Michigan Wins! Michigan Wins!

The game started out pretty ugly.  Fetter was roughed up early, giving up 3 runs in the first two innings.  Baserunning was another area we looked pretty bad in.  We were picked off twice by USF starter Randy Fontanez, and we should have been picked off in the 8th, but two bad throws lead to the game tying run coming across the plate.

Things worked out well though.  The bullpen looked good, only giving up 2 runs in 4 innings.  Jake McLouth (brother of major leaguer Nate McLouth) knocked his first career home run in his first career at bat.  The corner outfielders (Urban and Fellows) went 5/6 at the plate with several RBIs, even Lamarre in center added a key RBI single.

All in all, we looked damn good.  I’ll recap the whole weekend on Monday, and take a look at some of the stats a little more in depth.  Now we wait until tomorrow when we face Purdue at 11am.

Posted under Baseball

Guaranteed to go better than football! –FA

Tribute to the 2009 Season, (most)Images from Blue Cats and Red Sox’s flickr

Spring is in the air. The sun is shining, snow is melting, birds are chirping, and the ping of aluminum bats can be heard in the air. It’s baseball season.

Today marks Opening Day 2009 for your Michigan Wolverines. These guys have been toiling in Oosterbaan, challenging the cold at Ray Fisher Stadium, and studying like crazy, preparing themselves for the next 94 days. In 94 days, we will have a Big10 champion crowned, and maybe, for the fourth year in a row, that champion will be Michigan.

The Wolverines lost a lot this off season. They lost their do-it-all star, Zack Putnam. They lost the biggest bat they’ve had in years, first basemen Nate Recknagel. They lose their captain, short stop Jason Christian. They lose Leif Mahler at second.

But they return the top pitcher north of the Mason-Dixon line, Chris Fetter. They return one of the top senior second basemen in the region, Kevin Cislo. The leadership is there.

They return the entire outfield with Ryan Lamarre, Kenny Fellows, and Alan Oaks. They have the familiar face of Mike Dufek retaining his place at first base. They welcome back the once injured Anthony Toth at shortstop. The defense is solid and the offense loaded.

The expectations are high this year. Some would say too high. Baseball America ($) goes so far to pick Indiana. To quote Alan Oaks,

“Guys see that and are really kinda pissed off about it, actually,” …

“It’s definitely a slap in the face,” fifth year senior tri-captain Tim Kalczynski said … “Especially after we’ve proven ourselves for the past three years. There’s definitely going to be fire in our bellies when we’re playing … It’s going to be good motivation for us.”

Now that’s what you want to hear.

The Challenge

Image from bigeastbigtenchallenge.com

The team starts today at 1pm in Clearwater, Florida witha clash of conferences. The Big10 faces off with the other big time mid major of the north, the BigEast, or at least most of that conference. While the Big10 is sending all 10* of its teams, the BigEast is sending only 8 of 12. #16 Louisville** is the one program missing that I really wish would have made it in the bracket. While it hurts to be missing such a good team in the Challenge, the competition is still much better than the last few opening weeks Michigan has had recently (Villanova, Bethune Cookman, and Troy/South Alabama/Alabama-Birmingham).

The Challenge is in its first year and it will be interesting to see how long it lasts. The timing of the event should work in its favor as it occurs the weekend before the MLB teams start their scrimmages. Those who show up for pitchers and catchers reporting will have a chance to make it out. Some of the alumni invited to Grape Fruit League camps can stop into Tampa pretty easily too. Ticket prices are pretty good too. $10 gets you a full pass to every game. $5 will get you a full day pass. Not bad at all.

Unlike the ACC/Big10 challenge in basketball, the BigEast/Big10 Challenge has teams facing multiple opponents. Each team will face three opponents from the opposing conference. The Big10 teams have also added a game against conference opponents as well just to help the teams get in extra games while helping schools reduce the cost of traveling.

Big10 teams facing each other are picked based on the unbalanced conference season schedule. Each Big10 team misses one conference opponent each year. The opponent rotates every two years, much like the football schedule, but with only one team instead of two. This year, like last, we drew Purdue.

Michigan has drawn South Florida, Cincinnati, and St. John’s on the Challenge schedule. We were lucky to draw such quality competition. The three teams are all expected to finish in the top 5 places in their conference (along with Louisville and Notre Dame). Michigan has a good chance at defeating all three opponents, but you never know in college baseball, especially this early in the year.

Link-fest

Jim Abbott, Image from mgoblue.com

• Formerly on Maizenbrew:  BTN baseball viewing schedule, players lost from 2008 season, offensive players returning, pitchers returning,  new(er) faces and a guess at the lineup/rotation.
• If you’d like to download the Michigan Baseball Schedule for Outlook, Google Calendar, or any other calendar program, go here, copy this file into a Notepad/.txt file. You can import it into your calendar program and every day Michigan plays, you’ll have it on your calendar. For other D1 teams, here’s the full list.
• Team captains Chris Fetter, Tim Kalczynski, and Kevin Cislo are blogging throughout the season. Week One and Week Two were everyday, but it’s slowing to every other week for the rest of the season. Kalczynski is hilarious, Fetter is appreciative of his coaches, and Cislo bounces back and forth. Their latest post describes Coach FungoMan, the ground ball hitting machine.
• Jim Abbott is having his #31 jersey retired this season (hence Kenny Fellows changing #13). Jim Abbott is the greatest one handed pitcher ever to win the World Series. As a matter of fact, he’s the only one handed pitcher to play in the World Series. The guy was a Wolverine great, and if you ever get to see his biography, you should. The story about him facing the Cuban national team was inspiring.
• The preseason weekly release is out (pdf). Interesting note that Alan Oaks does not appear to have earned the starting slot in right field. It lists Nick Urban (former backup second baseman) as the probable starter. Earlier this week I had guessed Oaks in right and Urban at DH. It looks like redshirt freshman catcher Jake McClouth will have a shot at DH’ing to start the year.
• Alumnus Bobby Korecky (2002) was claimed by the Diamondbacks from the Twins. MGoBlue keeps up with the baseball alumni here.

*Wisconsin hasn’t fielded a team since the early 90s
**rankings from USA Today Coaches Poll

Posted under Baseball

The Varsity Blue crew kind of threw me off by posting the USF preview so early, so I’m going to continue that pattern with this preview. I’ll have the Cincy post tomorrow with a general post on the Challenge and what it means to Michigan baseball, as well as college baseball in general. This being a conference opponent, there is a little bit more detail in this than normal. It will hopefully get a little more specific once we get to the actual conference season, when games really start to count.   WordPress is also giving me formatting issues, so bear with for the time being.   –FA

Image from purdue.edu

Purdue*

*not a conference game
February 21, 2009 11:00am
Naimoli Complex
Clearwater, Fla.
Media:  Audio and  Stats

Home Team: TBA
Probable Pitchers: TBA vs Kolby Wood (RHP, 0-0)
M Record vs Opponent: 129-52
Last Series/Game: Michigan won 2 in the Big10 Tournament, last regular season match up was the 2007 series Michigan won 3 games to 1.

Overview

As stated above, this game, despite being against a conference opponent, is not a true conference game. Due to Louisville choosing to play Florida is a better venue than the Challenge, each Big10 team is playing one game against a conference opponent. The way the Big10 schedule works out, Big10 team misses out on one conference opponent per season, much like football does with the two opponents rotating off the schedule every two years. So, for a second year in a row, Michigan does not face Purdue during the regular season. To make up for the differing number of teams from each conference, the Big10 teams opted to face the conference opponent they would not be facing during conference season.

Purdue is coming off a very successful 2008 in which they finished 2nd in the Big10 regular season and was the last competitor to lose in the Big10 Championship. This year they are expected to rival, or even usurp Michigan as the winner of the Big10. Purdue may have lost stars Ryne White and Josh Lindblom, but they return nearly every other player on the team. They are by far the most experienced, and perhaps the best team on paper. That being said, as far as winning the Big10 is concerned, Baseball America puts it this way: “The Boilermakers last won a Big Ten title about the same time the Cubs won a World Series, in 1909.”

Michigan holds a fairly sizable lead in the historical series, as seen above. When we shorten the spectrum to the last 10 games, Michigan leads 8-2 spanning back to 2006. The two losses came closing out the 2006 series and opening the 2007 series (one at school’s home field).

Full preview after the jump…

Read More…

Posted under Baseball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Golden Gophers at 7PM tonight on BTN. The game takes place in Crisler Arena, where some tickets are still available.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website), wherein the Gophers are “O” for “opponent”:

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Michigan and Minnesota are very even teams, with pushes in 3 categories, and only 3 in which there is more than a single-letter advantage. Of course, there is the fact that Minnesota did it against a much easier schedule. However, both teams have struggled in conference play, and it’s hard to make any meaningful comparisons about schedule strength without conference-only numbers. Michigan wants to force the Gophers into turnovers and rebound as many of their own misses as they can. If the Wolverines were to be able to get to the line (which they won’t, because Big Ten refs hate Manny Harris), it would also help out their offensive efficiency. KenPom predicts a 65-63 Wolverines win in a 63-possession game.

Minnesota has a fairly talented team, and if there’s one area Tubby Smith has excelled, it’s bringing in a lot of talent. Guard Lawrence Westbrook takes up most of the Gophers’ possessions, and is the team leader in drawing fouls. Fellow guard Al Nolen is actually the leader in getting to the line for Minnesota, and he leads the team in assists. One thing that the Gophers do very well is get blocks (they lead the nation), and they have three players (Damien Johnson, Ralph Sampson III, and Colton Iverson) in the nation’s top 40. Sampson, a 6-11 center, also leads the team in offensive rating.

After starting the season 16-1, the Gophers have dropped 5 of 8, with two of the wins nailbiters over Indiana (the other was a blowout of Illinois). They are certainly sliding now. The Gophers should be vulnerable, but they’re fighting for their tournament lives, just like the Wolverines. Michigan needs three more regular-season victories for a chance at making the tournament, and the two games against Minnesota are going to be very important unless they pull a big upset somewhere (home to Purdue or @Wisconsin).

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

Half 2

Overtime

Individual Players

Didn’t shoot well, but was still productive on both ends of the court.

Played a lot with Sims in foul trouble. Didn’t score a ton, but did what he needed to do.

Really came on offensively in the second half. Played a solid defensive game, as well.

His inability to handle the rock and (occasionally) to shoot free throw nearly cost Michigan the game, but they probably wouldn’t have been in it without his defense.

Had a few big plays defensively.

Shot kinda poorly, but did the gritty white guy thing.

Offensive liability, and he doesn’t help a ton on the defensive end, either.

Not a big offensive day, and he fouled out on a phantom call. He was big defensively though.

Handled the ball well enough to not be a liability.

Only played when Beilein couldn’t rely on CJ to bring the ball up the court against the press.

Standard day.

The officiating in this game was a special kind of suck. This time, I think the Wolverines got the short end of the stick, and Sims’s 5th foul was an especially egregious call. CJ Lee can’t handle the ball at all, and Kelvin Grady really needs to step up his defense a bunch for the offense to get moving again. Beilein has favoired defense over offense for the past 8+ games, and it’s gotten a few results, but being able to get both halves from one player would be huge.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball