Quick programming update: The first few recaps of info on individual players from the press conference are up on MGoBlog. Subsequent notes will be here throughout the day and maybe a bit tomorrow.

If you want a full recap of the game that’s not obscured by some post work revelry, I suggest you head over to UMHoops and check out Dylan’s always excellent recaps.

For a lot of games in the Big Ten season I’ve found myself repeating the same things over and over again. Indiana/Purdue/Penn St./Illinois can’t keep hitting those shots. They invariably kept hitting them. Michigan can’t keep shooting this poorly all game. They sure could. The refs will actually start calling those hacks on Manny. They never really did. Finally, against Penn St. last night, I was actually right.

In the first half Battle made some ridiculous shots that no one has any business making.  But Michigan kept playing mostly good aggressive defense and eventually it payed off. They held Battle to 3/16 shooting and only 9 points.  This is the guy who has to be the odds on favorite for Big Ten player of the year and he was pretty much stymied.

On the other side, Manny blew up.  He got his 3pt shot to fall early, which seemed to give him a bunch of confidence.  He also, for probably the first time in conference, got to the line like he should. 14 free throw attempts! That has to be the record for him in Big Ten games this year. He didn’t just score either. His final line was 28pts/6reb/7ast/2blks/2stl and only 2 turnovers.  This was easily his best game of the conference season and definitely top 3 on the year.

I’m not sure if Penn St. was doing something different from the first time the two teams met, but it really seemed that Michigan was able to get a lot of cuts moving toward the basket for easy lay ups and dunks. Like I said, I was certainly enjoying myself during this game, so my analysis is lacking, but I feel the big difference was Michigan finally started hitting some outside shots. This stretched out the defense, which allowed for the cuts and for Manny to get into the lane and make things happen.  On top of that, when Michigan is hitting their shots, all the players seem to be much more energetic in the 1-3-1 and force a lot of action.

When Michigan gets going like they did last night, they can hang with most teams in the league, especially at home.  I’m not going to say there’s a chance against UConn, but the performance of Manny and the defense of the entire team gives me hope that Michigan could steal a game down the stretch and maybe win a couple of tournament games.  Every time I think this team in done, they go and play well.

Posted under Basketball

We’re suffering from live blog fatigue from Signing Day, but the guys from WLA are ready and raring to go. They’ll be moderating, but we may come in for a bit. Also check out their new digs.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

The Wolverines have a chance to exact revenge on Penn State tonight at home. The Wolverines will try to get a home victory on BTN at 7PM.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Various Nittany Lions were absolutely on fire from he floor, and DeShawn Sims was the only Michigan player who could do anything from the field (LLP was 0/6 from 3, for example, and Manny was 2/11 from the field). Michigan got sent home from State College with a 58-73 beatdown.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan briefly halted their slide against Northwestern, but got beaten up at the hands of Ohio State and Purdue. Zack Novak and Manny Harris were ejected (fairly and unfairly, respectively) in those two games, and Michigan’s offense and defense are both headed into the tank. The one area in which Michigan has improved is rebounding, but that hasn’t been enough to net them any wins. The Wovlerines, preiously great at not turning the ball over, have startedmaking up for lost time in giving the ball away, and the shooting has gone from very good to aboslutely pitiful.

The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, have caught fire. They struggled throughout most of their game with Iowa, but pulled together at the end for a huge come-from-behind win, then they beat Michigan State in East Lansing.

And it Means…

Sine the long break before OSU wasn’t enough to spur the team to a win, the even longer break this time can hopefully help them. With Zack Novak taking a breather for the Purdue game, and Manny getting one for nearly the entire second half, the team should be well-rested. The key will be for the shooting to return to respectable levels, if not where it was early in the season. Limiting easy baskets by Penn State, and not sending them to the foul line will also be key. PSU has advantages in most tempo-free cateogires, so the current Michigan team will have to revert to the non-conference Michigan team is they want to win.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 68-66 Wolverines victory in a 62-possession game, and gives Michigan a 56% chance of winning. Since NCAA tournaments dreams have basically become unrealistic, the Wolverines absolutely require a win here to stay alive, or they’re at least playing for NIT seeding.

Posted under Basketball

Raw data in .xls format here.

Half 1

Half 2

Game totals

Individual players:

Aside from the elbow, Manny didn’t have a particularly good game. He complemented bad shooting with a bunch of turnovers as well.

LLP’s shooting is mostly frightening because he’s missing the really easy ones. That speaks to a mental hurdle. Hopefully Beilein will be able to take care of that with a long week of prectice.

Suspended, yo.

As Michigan’s best offensive weapon for most of the day, Purdue was able to concentrate on him. Both 3-point makes came early in the game (Michigan’s first 6 points).

Didn’t look to shoot the ball, and got surprisingly little playing time. As the most consistent 3-point shooter on the team, he could have been used better once Harris went out.

His makes were notable (a thunderous dunk and the tip-in to give Michigan a halftime lead), but he was fairly quiet.

Shot the ball horribly, but he actually wa on a number of positive shifts.

When CJ Lee plays 3/4 of the game, your team is undermanned; he made the gritty walkon plays we’ve come to associate him with.

He is so athletic, but his basketball skill is so limited. It’s a shame Beilein didn’t have another year with him, as Jevohn could have been made into a real player if he’d had a legitimiate coach for more than 2 years.

I’m actually surprised his differential was that close to zero. He was on the floor for pretty much the entire Purdue run early in the second half that toasted Michigan’s chances to win. He can’t shoot to save his life, either..

Dude can shoot the ball, but at 150 lbs soaking wet, he’s a major defensive liability. If only players could redshirt 2 years, he could add some bulk and become a good player down the road. He should contribute in future years if he can add weight.

What This Says…

Manny Harris and Zack Novak are both really important to this team (and maybe Novak will have his shooting stroke back after an extended practice period with no games to break it up). By the way, I’m disgusted in Purdue’s reputation as this awesome defensive team: if I could describe them in one word, it would be dirty. Chris Kramer is the best example of this, as he flops more than Anderson Varejao, and does more grabbing, bumping, getting through screens using the point of his elbow, etc., than any player I can recall (and it’s a shame the conference rewarded him for it by naming him the Defensive POY last year). Coming out in a mask because he had a little cut on his skin was particularly douchey. I’m now convinced that Purdue’s defensive reputation is built more upon getting away with a bunch of dirty stuff, rather than actually being good on defense (which they are as well, to be fair).

Manny Harris’s ejection was ridiculous, as the refs changed their original call after seeing Kramer was bleeding. By the way, they thought Kramer had broken his nose, which was a fair assumption based on the rolling on the floor he did. Alas, that was all part of his acting job, since the only blood came from a small cut on his nose. Harris didn’t even hit him hard enough to knock him down (watch the replay: he falls opposite of the direction he got hit, and about a half second later), and had Harris moisturized his elbows before the game, this would have been an innocuous offensive foul.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Raw data in .xls format here. Apologies for the delay in getting these UFRs published. With the next game not until Thursday, The Purdue edition is coming tomorrow.

Half 1

Half 2

Game totals

Individual players:

Manny didn’t shoot particularly poorly, and a few of his misses could have conceivably been called fouls. It was the turnovers that Manny really hurt the team with on this day.

LLP shot better than I would have guessed from watching the game. It would probably be best for him to not start a few games to get his head right, and hopefully he’d be more effective off the bench.

Bad day shooting, though he did his standard job rebounding and making various hustle plays. Also, he got suspended for elbowing a dude in the face.

Really tough day for DeShawn. He started off pretty well, then faded down the stretch (as has become a pretty strong trend lately). He has to play the lion’s share of minutes, is often guarding (and being guarded by) bigger guys, and gets worse looks as his teammates decide to start jacking ill-advised threes.

Not a whole lot of shooting from Kelvin, which is too bad, because he’s certainly one of the best three-point shooters on the team, if not the best. He set his teammates up with a lot of decent looks still.

When Sims struggles, the team really neeeds Gibson to step up and prove his worth. Ohio State does have much better big men (and more depth) than Michigan, but Zack’s perfomance was truly bad.

Yikes. Maybe stepping in for LLP in a starting role isn’t what Douglass needs right now. He’s really been struggling lately as well.

Standard CJ Lee.

When Anthony Wright is playing outside of garbage time (and more than a minute here and there), it’s probably not a good thing for the team’s success.

What This Says…

After the terror that was the opening few minutes of this game, Michigan’s players really settled down and played the Buckeyes evenly for the remainder of the game. Of course, playing even isn’t good enough when you start in an 18-point hole. The shooting was subpar, but Michigan would be able to get through this if it wasn’t for the horrendous turnovers they had. In the .xls sheet, look at all the times Michigan didn’t even have a shot attempt while Ohio State was scoring 6 or 8 points. That’s all due to turnovers. Of course, the Buckeyes helped Michigan a bit by turning it over a bunch themselves. The final score of this game is a little wider than the contest actually was, as Michigan had a technical and a flagrant foul late in the game, and were fouling the Buckeyes at the end to try to extend it.

A couple comments on how unbelievably stupid the BTN analyst was (these are drawn straight from the .xls):

• Michigan’s first 3-pointer in 10 shot attempts prompts the announcer to say “Michigan has been almost exclusively a perimeter team [this game].” At that point, 14 of Michigan’s 20 shot attempts (70%) had been from inside the arc.
• After Michigan gets an offensive rebound, “This will give Michigan a rare opportunity for some second-chance points.” At that point in the game, Michigan already had 8 offensive rebounds, and they ended up beating the Buckeyes in offensive rebounding by a wide margin of 13-4.

Of course, color analysts are often stupid, but BTN has some of the worst of the bunch (don’t even get me started on football). It seems that, especially with this Michigan team, they go into the game with the assumption that Michigan will only shoot threes, and won’t get any offensive boards, and they continue to hammer on those points, even as such trivial matters as “facts” go completely against what they’re saying.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Reader Kenny Greenia took in the wresting meet  against Northwestern. College wrestling is actually very fun and Michigan has a very storied program. In case you don’t know, if a wrestler wins by seven or less points, it’s a decision and the team gets 3 points. A win by 8 points to 14 points garners that team 5 points. Without further ado…

Michigan wrestled to a 17-17 tie against Northwestern today, and much to Donovon McNabb’s chagrin, there is no tiebreaking procedures in college wrestling right now. Each team won 5 of the 10 matches, and each team got 2 majors decisions (wins by more than 8) and 3 decisions. The theme this meet seemed to be overmatched wrestlers giving tough matches to save team points, and that will show up in the match by match a few times. With that, on to the matches. Michigan kids will be in blue.

125: Brandon Precin (3rd) Dec. Micheal Watts (15th) 9-3

I was pretty wrong here, thinking that Precin was a lock for the major. It looked bad for Watts when Precin started out with a takedown and then a 2 point near-fall with a fireman’s tip into a tilt to jump out to a 4-0 lead, but Watts was able to get a reversal by sliding out the back. Watts kept Precin down until about 10 seconds left in the match, but Precin was able to get the escape, making it 5-2 after the first. The next 2 periods were less exciting, Precin tacks on an escape after choosing down in the 2nd and gets another takedown using a double leg. Watts chooses down in the third and gets an escape but not before Precin locks up his riding time point, and Precin gets another double leg takedown. The match ends 9-3.

Wildcats lead 3-0

133: Eric Metzler Dec. Zac Stevens 4-3

This one was a great match, even though Stevens lost. Stevens came out of the gate very aggressive and got an early takedown, but Metzler was able to escape after a restart when a stalemate was called with about 2 minutes left in the first. Despite a lot of action by both wrestlers, there was no more scoring in the first, although Stevens was close to a takedown using a front headlock late in the period. Stevens chooses down in the second and is able to escape quick, but Metzler shoots a quick double leg that Stevens defends nicely and gets a stalemate. The same scene plays out, with Metzler shooting right off the whistle, and another stalemate is called. Metzler starts the third period down, and gets out quick, making the score 3-2. Stevens takes a cue from Metzler and shoots a single leg off the whistle, but Metzler defends it well. Another restart, and another single, this time from Metzler, and again no points are scores, although this time we get blood time because Metzler has injured his finger. Metzler is feeling well enough when the match restarts though, and takes another single, this time converting on it, and scoring the final points of the match, making it 4-3.

Wildcats lead 6-0

141: Kellen Russell (5th) Dec. Keith Sulzer (16th) 4-2

Another great match, the Wolverines come out on top though. Sulzer comes out shooting, which doesn’t serve him well in this instance, as Russel is able to score a takedown by circling around on a bad shot attempt, and ride him out the rest of the period. Russel chooses down to start the 2nd, and almost gets a reversal, but the referees rule no change. Thankfully he’s able to escape off the restart with 30 seconds left, making the score 3-0 at the end of the second. Sulzer chooses down to start the 3rd, and manages to get the reversal, but Russel is out immediately. Both wrestlers grind out the final minute in the period, but neither scores a takedown, and neither has a minute of riding time, meaning the match ends 4-2, giving the Wolverines their first victory.

Wildcats lead 6-3

149: Andrew Nadhir Maj. Dec. Mark Weber 12-4

I was WAAAAY off here, thinking Weber would win, although he should have only given up a decision if not for some…odd…officiating near the end. For a major decision, this match started out very slow, with no scoring in the first. Both wrestlers were content to tie up and work for position, but Weber is hit with a stalling warning late in the period. Nadhir chooses down to start the 2nd, and gets up easily, then shows the same amount of ease taking Weber down. Weber gets up and out for the escape but Nadhir is able to get his ankle and work that into a takedown on the edge with almost no time left in the period, which then ends 5-1. Weber chooses down for the 3rd, and again is up and out quickly, but Nadhir hits a very deep double and brings Weber to the mat hard. Weber gets out again, but gets taken down, again, and then gets another escape. At this point the score is 9-4, and then the officiating takes a turn for the worst. After getting warned for stalling, an odd occurrence when up 9-4, Nadhir gets in on a leg attack, and Weber gets his hips out in a sprawl attempt, prompting the official to call him for stalling and give Nadhir a point. If that is not wierd enough, as Nadhir works up, Weber dives to get a leg to prevent the take down and the ensuing major, and even though he manages to get ahold of the event, the referee gives Nadhir the takedown, ending the match at 12-4, and giving Northwestern an extra team point, which will be very important in the final score.

Wildcats lead 10-3

156: Jason Welch (15th) Dec. Aaron Hynes 6-2

Tough match by Hynes, keeping it close against a very, very tough leg wrestler. First period has a lot of scrambling but the only points occur late in the clock when Welch gets the better of Hynes. Welch chooses down to begin the 2nd and is out quickly. Hynes regains the advantage with a single leg but Welch gets the reversal and puts on the legs, riding him out. 5-2 going into the third, and Hynes chooses down, despite Welch’s prowess on top. Welch gets the legs in quickly and proceeds to ride Hynes out, switching between both legs in and a cross body ride. Welch manages to get the riding time point, ending the match at 6-2.

Wildcats lead 13-3

165: Justin Zeerip Maj. Dec. Kyle Bertin 9-1

Zeerip really stepped up today and got a HUGE win here, against a decent kid, although not the one I thought he would wrestle. Zeerip is the aggressor throughout the first period, working some short offense and a leg attack but doesn’t convert on anything, and the first period ends without any score. Zeerip chooses down to start the 2nd and gets up quickly, and manages to defend a single by Bertin on the edge of the mat. Bertin thinks too much of his single and takes kind of a sloppy shot, and Zeerip manages to lock a cradle up and get a takedown with it, but doesn’t get any nearfall, ending the period at 3-0. Bertin chooses down to start the third, and Zeerip manages to ride him long enough to build up his minute, despite getting warned for stalling. Bertin gets up and gets his escape, but Zeerip works some offense again and nearly comes up with a takedown before they go out of bounds. Zeerip does manage to get another takedown late in the period, getting in on a leg attack and managing to put Bertin to his back, getting the 5 count and all 3 of his near-fall, and riding him out the rest of the period. Adding in his riding time point, Zeerip gets the 9-1 major decision in an incredibly clutch match.

Wildcats lead 13-7

174: Steve Luke (1st) Dec.Robert Kellog 11-5

Kellog wrestled the kind of match his team needed him to, going in knowing he can’t win and with no objective other than save as many team points as possible. The first period happened the way it should, with Luke getting the early takedown and then letting him up to his feet, or cutting him, in order to try and work more from neutral. Luke does this twice more in the first, and manages to get Kellog warned for stalling, ending the period 6-3. Kellog starts the 2nd by choosing bottom and Luke first try’s working a chicken wing, but gives up quickly and just lets him up. Luke is trying to work some more offense and Kellog keeps backing up, getting him called for stalling and giving Luke a point. Luke does manage another takedown and Kellog gets up again before the period ends with Luke up 9-5. Luke chooses down in the third and gets out quickly, but after they are neutral Kellog latches onto the ankle to try and prevent Luke from getting another takedown, which would give him the major in addition to his riding time. Kellog battles out the third and somehow manages to avoid another takedown, and after riding time Luke wins by a final score of 11-5.

Wildcats lead 13-10

184: Jake Herbert (1st) Maj. Dec. Anthony Biondo (12th) 16-6

Biondo came up with an incredibly gutsy performance here, holding Herbert to a 16-6 major decision and not giving up any back points or stalling points. Herbert put on a takedown clinic all match, and was able to get 3 in the first, letting Biondo up twice to make the score 6-2. Herbert starts the 2nd period down and immediately stands up. Biondo manages to only give up 2 takedowns this period, sandwiched around 1 escape for him, making it 11-3 going into the third. Biondo goes down to start the third and Herbert lets him up and is again only able to take him down twice, even though Biondo gets warned for stalling. Biondo gets let up after each takedown as Herbert is working for more points, but they finish the match in neutral, and after riding time Herbert gets the major 16-6, although the story here is that Biondo gives him the toughest match he’s had so far. Yes, Biondo failed to register a takedown or a point that Herbert did not give him, but Herbert has only had 2 matches that lasted all 7 minutes this year, and the other 2 were 14-1 and 15-1, each against top 15 wrestlers. Herbert is very good, and should give Brent Metcalf, a Michigan native, a run for his money when it comes to the Hodge Trophy for the nations best wrestler.

Wildcats lead 17-10

197: Tyrell Todd (6th) Maj. Dec. John Schoen 16-5

Michigan comes up with another big match here, with an injured Ty Todd absolutely dominating John Schoen. Todd sets the tone of this match early with a single leg, picking Schoen up and bringing him back to the mat so hard Schoen loses a contact lens. After Schoen takes some injury time to find his contact lens and probably call his parents to tell him he loves them, just in case, Todd cuts him loose on the restart, and Schoen manages to avoid a takedown for the rest of the period, despite getting warned for stalling, ending the first with Todd up 2-1. Schoen starts the 2nd period off on bottom, and Todd stays on him to get his minute of riding time before letting him go. Schoen gets dinged for stalling, giving Todd another point, and Todd gets another takedown. Todd lets him up again, and Schoen is clearly running away, getting dinged again for stalling and giving Todd another point, ending the period at 6-3. Todd chooses down and gets out easily, then takes Schoen down and lets him up. Schoen dinged again for stalling, this time its 2 points for Todd, and if he gets called again he is disqualified and Todd earns 6 team points. With this looming over his head Schoen stops backup up and Todd works another 2 takedowns before the period ends. Add in his riding time advantage and Todd gets the major decision 16-5.

Wildcats lead 17-14

285: Eddie Phillips Dec. Ben Kuhar 3-2

This one is as close as close can get, with Phillips edging out the win in double overtime. It looks a lot like a heavyweight match right off the whistle, as both wrestlers are very aggressive, tying up with each other, and giving each other a lot of pressure. It looks like someone might get thrown but both of them do a good job of keeping the other from getting a secure enough hold to feel good about a throw. The first ends with no scoring, and Phillips starts the 2nd period down, and immediately gets a reversal using a switch off the whistle, and starts in on a head lever ride. After a potentially dangerous call, Kuhar is able to work his way out, and after more tying up, the period ends. Kuhar goes down to start the third and gets the escape to even the score 2-2, and after more tying up and a few shot feints, the match goes into overtime. The first overtime, which lasts a minute and starts neutral, looks very much like most of the match, a lot of wrestling for better position, and no takedowns. After the first OT period, they go into double overtime, which is split into two different periods, each 30 seconds long, and each starting from referees position, or top and bottom. Phillips goes down in the first period, and is out on a standup about halfway into it. Kuhar is down in the second 30 second period, and Phillips manages to ride him out the full 30 seconds, giving him the gutty 3-2 victory, and getting the team a tie.

Final: Michigan ties Northwestern, 17-17

Summary

All in all, not a bad performance by Michigan. A great meet if you like suspense, with a lot of matches that were in doubt late, or barely put into majors late. Not the result the Wolverines were looking for, but still, anytime you wrestle a Big Ten team and don’t lose, its a decent day. Tommorow, Michigan will be in Cliff Keen , again, wrestling the 19th ranked team in the country, again. This time, though, it will be the Indiana Hoosiers, who are tied with Northwestern at the moment at 19th in the NWCA coaching poll. I’ll try to have a rundown of the team up before the 2 P.M. start, but if I end up too busy prepping for the Super Bowl, I think Michigan ends up getting their first Big Ten win tommorow, and I think they get big matches from Ty Todd and Anthony Biondo.

Posted under Other Sports

The action should get going shortly before 7:30. Be here or be gueer.

Posted under Hockey

Purdue 67 – Michigan 49

At the end of the first half it was 26-25 Michigan after a last second tip by Gibson as time expired.  The first half Manny was quiet and Novak was suspended. Michigan got some good production from DeShawn Sims early and then the bench brigade, mainly Sheppherd and Gibson, was key in providing a lot of the first scoring.

The first half was pretty brutal offensively overall. Michigan didn’t score for the first 6 minutes of the game yet only trailed by 4 points.  Michigan played tough and hustled hard on defense even though they were overmatched at more than a few positions.

The second half is where it all went to hell. Usually there isn’t a particular play in a basketball game, much less a 18 point blow out,  but this game is defenitely an exception. Like most games, Manny Harris was frustrated as he would go to the basket, get mauled and have to get back on defense when the ref didn’t blow his whistle.  Before the 18 minutes mark in the second half, Manny had the ball outside the 3 point arc on the wing. The defender, Robbie Hummel [UPADTE: It was Kramer. My rage got the best of me], was right up in Manny’s face playing tight D.  Manny brought his arms with the ball around and accidentally caught Kramer in the nose with an elbow.  Kramer went to the ground holding his nose.  There was blood, and the Purdue fans were howling for more. Immediately a foul was called. Manny looked around for a ref, so he could give him the ball. All of a sudden they called it a flagrant personal foul and Manny was heading to the locker room. The rule book (pg 87) says:

Art. 4. Flagrant personal foul, live ball.
A flagrant personal foul shall be a personal foul that involves severe or excessive contact with an opponent or involves contact that is extreme in nature while the ball is live.

I guess there isn’t anything in there about intent, so if the official thinks that the contact is that far out of the realm of normal play, he has every right to throw Manny out. But it wasn’t a dirty play. Manny wasn’t trying to hurt the player; he wasn’t even trying to hit the Purdue player. Obviously it should be a foul. There was contact and the defender had his position, but there shouldn’t have been an ejection for that.

Speaking of the refs, they were pretty awful the entire games. Like most Big Ten crews, they love to call stupid, ticky-tack fouls, yet don’t call muggings at the rim. I really don’t get it, at all.

After that, everything went to hell in a handbasket. Purdue got hot and Michigan was rattled. They couldn’t get anything going offensively and that affected their defensive ability.  Eventually it got to be too much. Around the 11 minute mark, most observers could tell the game was effectively over.

They were able to lead a good Purdue team at the half without Novak, who is arguably Michigan’s 3rd or 4th best player. No way Michigan had a chance without Manny for the second half. Manny averages 32 minutes a game, but only could play 18. Novak averages 26 and played none.  Playing on the road against a team with better talent, it was just too much for this team to overcome.  They played hard, but when Anthony Wright, CJ Lee and David Merrit all have to play serious minutes, the team is not going to win much.

Do you think that the ejection was the wrong call? Let us know in the comments.

Posted under Basketball

Can Michigan pull the upset? Will there be enough grit without Novak? Figure it out here. We’ll get started a bit before 1pm.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan has a chance to best the conference’s preseason favorite as they take on the Purdue Boilermakers today at 1PM. The game takes place in west Lafayette, and can be seen on CBS.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Purdue is a very good defensive team, and one of the more well-rounded squads Michigan has faced on the year. They’re a horrible matchup for a Michigan team that is struggling to produce on offense, and especially one that is struggling to hit its shots. The Boilers are #1 in the nation in forcing their opponents into missing their field goal attempts. Another sign of a tenacious defensive unit is opponents’ turnovers. The Boilers have been pretty good at forcing the opponent to give up the ball. Michigan, on the other hand, has been good at holding onto it, save for a few bad perfformances (most notably Wednesday night in Columbus). Michigan will face a tough challenge in getting the offense going. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 73-60 Boilermaker victory in a 66-possession game, and gives Michigan just a 9% chance of winning.

The key players for Purdue are E’twaun Moore, Chris Kramer (#29 in the nation in steals and last year’s conference defensive POY), and Robbie Hummel, who is now coming off the bench after coming back from an injury. Hummel is an efficient offensive player, as is big man JaJuan Johnson.

Before the end of the Ohio State game, I thought it might be time to reduce Laval Lucas-Perry’s minutes, as he’s clearly struggling on the floor right now. With Zack Novak suspended for a game though, LLP will probably have to play at least as many minutes as he’s been getting. There should also be a lot of Zack Gibson in the game (not necessarily a good thing), and Manny will probably have to play the 4 a lot as well.

Things look grim, but if the Wolverines somehow manage to pull off a huge conference road victory, they may be able to scratch their way back into the tournament discussion.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball