Wow. The only thing I want to do after that game is let out a sigh of relief. Michigan was down by 20 points early in the second half, but fought back against the Hoosiers for an overtime win, their first victory in Bloomington since 1995.

This game (along with Eastern Michigan and Savannah State wins) shows that, with poor enough shooting, Michigan can lose to anybody. Of course, the corollary to that is that Michigan can also beat anybody if the shots are falling (wins over UCLA and Duke). Of course, there is also a disturbing trend of letting bad teams play with them, and opposing offenses consistently shooting the lights out.

The shooting woes were attributable to several factors. Michigan hasn’t played away from home since December 20th, and haven’t played a true road game since the loss to Maryland in College Park. Several players, Manny Harris chief among them, were also settling for terrible looks early in the shot clock (I’m sure UFR will bear that out).

As far as the defense, I really don’t know enough about basketball to say “this is the reason opposing offenses can’t miss when they play Michigan.” I’m sure John Beilein does, and now it’s up to him to see if he can get that figured out and solved before it really bites this team. One of the few things I can really point to is the inability to corral defensive rebounds, which gives oponents way too many second looks.

In the end, though, it’s wins and losses that matter. Michigan was able to squeak one out today, and the NCAA tournament dream can live on.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Indiana tonight at 6:30 in Bloomington. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Indiana is really, really bad this year. I’ll allow Spartans Weblog to bring the visual aid:

IU’s defensive efficiency is near the bottom of the conference, but the story for the Hoosiers this year has been their utter ineptitude on offense. This is understandable when you have no players, and that is certainly the case for Indiana. In this particular game, Michigan has 100+ ranking-place advantages in 5 categories, and Indiana only leads the Wolverines in those areas you’d expect Michigan, and perimeter-oriented team, to be weak. Each team’s effective field goal percentage should play a significant role in determining who wins this game. The Wolverines hold huge advantages in this area on each end of the floor. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 72-62 Michigan victory, with the Hoosiers only given a 17% chance to steal a win.

There is no way to spin this game as anything other than a must-win for Michigan. Indiana is a sorry squad this year, and Tom Crean has some major rebuilding to do inside Assembly Hall. One key factor to keep in mind is the home-court advantage. The Wolverines have played only one true road game this year, a 5-point loss to Maryland. That was over a month ago, and Beilein’s crew will have to adjust to playing away from Crisler.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

After several suggestions, I’ve decided to scrap the play-by-play aspect of the UFR feature, and just include the final stats from the game. The raw data is available in .xls format here.

Half 1

Half 2

Game totals

Individual players:

Much better than last game. He was looking to pass when he got into trouble. A couple of the misses in the lane (noted as a difficulty of 1) probably could have been called fouls.

LLP was hitting the open 3s on this day, but none of the covered ones. Most of his shots came from outside (as per usual).

It seemed like Novak was doing a hell of a lot more than it looks like he did just by checking his shot chart. The importance of the baskets must have played a big role in that. He also made the midrange shot on which he was fouled.

Sims, like Novak, seemed to be a lot more active than his chart would indicate. Both of the times he was blocked could have conceivably be called fouls.

Grady got much more time than he did in the previous game, and though he took a couple ill-advised shots, he was a catalyst for the rest of the offense (4 assists, 2 more assist opportunities missed). He also made the lane shot on which he was fouled.

He played a lot without much in the way of scoring, but a couple of the dunks he had were huge in terms of momentum. He also had an enormous block.

Not much usage for Dave. Interestingly, he was ONLY on the court with the “A-Team” (Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims).

Lee and Douglass also played extensive minutes without charting a shot attempt (Douglass 9:59, -11; Lee 4:02, -2). It’s become quite clear that the best lineup consists of Grady-Lucas-Perry-Harris-Novak-Sims. Gibson is hit-or-miss, but is probably overall the next best player to insert in the lineup (removing Novak). Without Grady at the point, the team was -10 (-3 with Merritt, and -7 with Douglass). Standard caveats about sample size, but that’s certainly notable.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Just a few quick thoughts about the hoops game. UFR might not be coming until Tuesday-ish because tomorrow is my birthday and I’ll be busy.

1. After the Wisconsin game, I thought the refereeing might have just been coincidentally slanted in favor of Wisconsin. After this game, I’m starting to think that there’s no way a game would be called so poorly unless the refs actually had something out for us. They wouldn’t call absolute muggings on our end of the floor, and then would call the most ticky-tack fouls on the other side.
2. Zack Novak was a real trooper for getting all bloody-like, then getting stitches during the game and being able to come back in before it ended. The #11 jersey is not nearly as awesome though.
3. Zack Gibson can be surprisingly athletic at times. He wasn’t the player of the game today, but Michigan certainly doesn’t win if he isn’t in there. The block on one end (before which the announcers stated Illinois was about to answer Michigan’s basket on the other side), followed shortly thereafter by the drive and dunk was awesome.
4. Manny Harris was back to being effective, and he wasn’t forcing up too many shots this game. I think he will grade out much better in UFR than he did against Wisconsin.
5. After the Wisconsin game, I think a lot of Michigan fans were depressed that it meant we’d have to be nearly perfect the rest of the way to get to the NCAA tournament. After this game, Michigan has shown they can play poorly and still win as long as they step it up in crunch time. There is still plenty of work to do to secure a tournament bid, but this win certainly makes it look a lot less dire.
6. Kelvin Grady made a layup! If he can do that consistently, this team is a lot better.

Anything else I missed?

Posted under Basketball

After several suggestions, I’ve decided to scrap the play-by-play aspect of the UFR feature, and just include the final stats from the game. The raw data is available in .xls format here. Thanks to reader formerlyanonymous for his help, as well.

Half 1

Half 2

Game totals

Individual players:

Manny had a really crappy day. He took it upon himself to carry the team, and he quite frankly couldn’t do it this time. Considering he’s been able to do it consistently to this point in the year, I guess he can get a pass for once.

LLP has gotten praise for being able to hit the open three, but he just couldn’t do it on this day. He forced a bit too.

Novak was the Designated Awesome Freshman on this day, and he was a key player at the beginning of the second half, when Michigan needed to keep it close.

Awful day for DeShawn all over the place. He grabbed four rebounds all game, and none until the second half. He hit his shots, but didn’t take very many of them. I wonder if the ankle injury from Monday hampered, and he also might have been having breathing probles.

Like all the other Wolverines (except maybe Novak), Stu really struggled on this day.

Kelvin got almost no playing time all day (11 minutes), in favor of Dave Merritt. I would have liked to see him play a bit more, considering Michigan needed more playmakers on the floor, and I think his ability to drive might have opened up more shots for his teammates to miss.

At least he didn’t have guards ripping tons of rebounds out of his hands.

Seemed to play more than he has been lately. He didn’t get a lot of offensive opportunity, and he actually seemed to be a calming influence at times when he was in the game.

Not much usage for Dave.

The entire Michigan team struggled, and when you’re a Perimeter Oreiented Team, there are going to be poor shooting days that turn into losses. Of course, the other side of the coin is that hot-shooting days will turn into upsets (see: Duke II) Early in the game, both teams were getting plenty of open looks. The only difference was Michigan’s were long-range (which they subsequently missed) and Wisconsin’s were easy inside looks. Once Wisconsin built up the lead, the game was pretty evenly back-and-forth. DeShawn Sims was completely off today, and I’d like to hope that was because of the ankle injury he sustained against NC Central than an inability to perform against a better team like Wisconsin. Manny was equally frustrating (and frustrated), and he seemed to be trying a little too hard throughout much of the game.

Posted under Basketball, Football

Three years ago Tim and I did a live blog of the basketball game in mid February. This was in the absolute worse part of the program’s malaise. Just to make sure we could get through it all, we got a 24 and located a half full fifth. By the end of the game all the booze was gone and we were hurling expletives and footwear at the Tommy Amaker we saw on TV. Michigan was never in that game and never really had a chance.

This year, Michigan was favored to win by 4 by the statistical guru Ken Pomeroy. Five minutes into the game I was having flashbacks to the game three years ago. The big difference is that this year I believed that Michigan could come back and win.  Ultimately, it wouldn’t happen, but that was mainly due to Wisconsin playing really good basketball and the officials reaffiirming my hatred for NCAA Basketball officials. Of course, we were watching through maize-and-blue-lenses, and there were bad call both way, but when the officiating is inconsistent enough that there are a lot of iffy calls, and random chance results in most of them going against your team, it’s hard not to get frustrated, especially when better officiaiting would have radically changed the outcome of this game.

A note to the color commentator: not calling a foul when Manny Harris gets hacked going to the basket is not “Big Ten Basketball”.  This is especially true when the next the play there’s a ticky-tack foul at the 3pt line.  Unless the color guy meant bad officiating is “Big Ten Basketball.” It’s OK to criticize poor officiating as a color commentator, and the commentary for NCAA BBall is actually even worse than for football (admittedly, our primary sport at VB).

So with that, Michigan faces off against Illinois on Sunday as a home underdog, and the path to the NCAA tournament gets a whole lot more dicey. At this point, the Wolverines can do nothing to help their case but win.

Posted under Basketball, Football

OK, I lied. This will be a 1.1 version (new additions: play-by-play broken up by substitution patterns, added notes for every shot). Hopefully 2.0 (including defensive series, + and – for individual players) will come out after the Wisconsin game. No guarantees on that, however, considering it’s New Year’s Eve.

Beilein clearly wants to have at least one of Sims and Harris on the floor at all times, and preferably both. He probably gave Sims a rest knowing that a TV timeout was approaching, as he reinserts DeShawn after the commercial. When Michigan is baioled out by a foul in a low-clock situation, Harris comes back in as well.

Individual Player Charts:

Grady was cold from 3 after Beilein gave him more minutes in an apparent vote of confidence.

Manny didn’t get going until the second half, for the second game in a row. He was still making his presence felt, but came alive a bit more in the second half.

Almost no shots for CJ, and his only attempt was a blocked putback.

LLP showed he can hit open threes, but did next to nothing in the second half. The missed shot from the lane probably should have been made.

Called on to shoot very little, but made the most of his opportunities.

Again, either he or Douglass gets used a lot in the offense. This time, it was Douglass’s turn.

I think Shepherd is pretty effective when he’s on the floor, just not mostly in terms of his shooting.

I think Shepherd is pretty effective when he’s on the floor, just not mostly in terms of his shooting.

Again, apologies for the delay in getting version 2 of the UFR running. Keep suggesting features for it, and I’ll take them into consideration.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Wisconsin today at 2PM in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

For the first time in a while, Michigan has a distinct deficit in multiple categories. Many of these are predictable for a perimeter-oriented team: Wisconsin is much better at rebounding and Michigan doesn’t get to the free throw line very often. Defensively, Michigan doesn’t force as many turnovers as one might hope to give them an advantage over Wisconsin. This is somewhat odd because the 1-3-1 is designed to force the opponent to give up the ball, but the Wolverines have been going with more man-to-man defense of late, so that may be a partial explanation. Overall, Wisconsin is a well-rounded team, ranking in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Michigan is still the favorite though, and Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-62 Wolverine triumph, with a 70% chance of victory.

In the game plans, the main area that is strongly correlated with both Michigan’s and Wisconsin’s efficiencies is Wolverine effective field goal percentage. Since Michigan has an advantage in it (however slight it may be), the Wolverines may have an advantage in performing well on offense today. The turnover rate for Wisconsin may also play a role. The Badgers have an advantage of nearly 100 places in the national rankings. Regardless, this is definitely the most evenly-matched game Michigan has played in a while.

Of course, with a team in the national spotlight, and one in Michigan’s own conference, the key players will be more known to Wolverines fans, and there are bound to be more of them. Joe Krabbenhoft, Marcus Landry, Trevon Hughes, and Jason Bohannon are all key players for the Badgers. Each has played in at least 73% of available minutes (the next closest player has less than 50%). Landry has star power, and is most mentioned in the national media, but it is Hughes who leads the Badgers in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and free throw rate. The point guard also (obviously) leads the team in assists, and really makes things go for Wisconsin.

This should be the first real test for Michigan in quite some time (since Oakland? Duke even?), and it’s time for the Wolverines to put up or shut up. Has this Michigan team been putting in a lackadaisical effort because they knew they would beat inferior teams anyway? Or are they really just not as good as we think/hope? A big win today would be a great start to making a run through conference season, and hopefully into the tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

So, now I understand why Brian takes a few days to do a football UFR. Basketball games are far less time-consuming, but it’s still ridiculously hard to finish them in any timely fashion.

The NC Central UFR will come tom orrow sometime, followed by the Wisconsin preview. The NCC UFR is also going to be a 1.1 version, rather than a 2.0. Apologies for the delay, and hopefully once I get into the groove of trying to hammer them out, I’ll be able to complete them in a much quicker manner.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on winless North Carolina Central tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

NC Central is dead-last in the KenPom ratings, so its entirely understandable that Michigan has pretty significant advantages in every area. The Wolverines have their first 4-letter advantage of the year, and it’s in an important category: their offensive efficiency against NCC’s defensive efficiency. The only areas in which Michigan has just one-letter advantages are turnover rate on offense, defensive rebounding (astoundingly, they have more than 100 places in separation between the teams in Michigan’s offensive rebounding), and free throw rate on offense. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 96-41 Wolverines victory, with 0% chance of an upset in a 66-possession game.

Taking a look at the game plans, Michigan’s effective field goal percentage against NC Central’s defense should be a good indicator of how the team’s overall offensive performance will go. Considering Michigan has a huge advantage in that area, it should be a good day for the Michigan offense. On paper, this looks to be a great offensive day for Michigan. The one area NCC is fairly good in is blocking opponents’ shots, but that will likely not play a huge role against a perimeter-shooting team like the Wolverines.

NCC has three key players, all of whom have played more than 80% of the possible minutes so far this year. Stevy Worah-Ozimo is the tallest player on the team at 6-9. He is the team’s center, and hasn’t attempted a three-point shot yet this year. Freshman Jamar Briscoe is a Grady-sized (5-10) point guard, and leads the team in assists. The other key player is Vincent Davis, who, at 6-2, would normally be considered a guard, but he may be more of a wing player on such a size-challenged team (3rd shortest in Division I, ahead of only Nebraska and SIU-Edwardsville, the second of which I believe is a data-entry error). The rest of the minutes are filled fairly evenly by the other 5 players on the team.

With the gaps in talent and depth between these teams, it would be surprising if NC Central gave MIchigan much of a game. Of course, stranger things have happened, so be sure to check out the game at 7 tonight on BTN. If nothing else, it should provide an opportunity to see Michigan look like world-beaters.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball