Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Iowa Hawkeyes tomorrow at 2:30 PM in Indianapolis. The first-round Big Ten Tourney game is crucial if Michigan wants to return to The Big Dance, and Wolverine fans can catch it on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

In perhaps the most poorly-officiated game of the year (and that’s saying a TON. Actually, the Minnesota game might have been slightly worse, but the bad calls were distributed evenly between the two teams and didn’t greatly affect the game’s outcome), Michigan had a regulation victory cruelly ripped from their hands by shockingly incompetent officiating, and the Wolverines sealed their own fate in overtime. Manny Harris was benched for the entire extra session, Michigan couldn’t hit a shot (or take any other than contested 3s) and the Wolverines lost by double-digits. Iowa managed to take the game without their bigman, Cyrus Tate.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has picked up huge wins over Purdue (at home) and Minnesota (on the road), while dropping an away game to Wisconsin in between. Michigan, who looked to be dead in the water after losing to Iowa (again, under questionable circumstances), has played itself back into tourney contention.

Iowa dropped games to Michigan State, Northwestern, and Ohio State before knocking off Penn State in Carver-Hawkeye, and putting a severe dent in the Nittany Lions’ chances of dancing. Cyrus Tate has returned to action, though he certainly isn’t at 100% effectiveness. In what could be the last game of his college career, I presume Tate will give it all he has.

And…?

Though it certainly didn’t feel like it after the big win against Minnesota, Michigan absolutely must come away from this game victorious if they want the tourney dream to remain alive. Cyrus Tate has been back on the court for the Hawkeyes, which should improve them a bunch. However, Iowa is playing for little more than a chance to spoil somebody’s season, whereas Michigan’s motivation is making their first NCAA tournament in 10 years. Beating Illinois in the next game certainly wouldn’t hurt, but a win over Iowa is absolutely crucial.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit favorite at the neutral site.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

I was going to try and hold off a bit longer between recruiting posts, but with the latter half of this week likely stuffed full of baseball and (hopefully) basketball, this will run now. I’ve been forgetting to link it of late, so be sure to visit the 2010 Recruiting Board for all the updates.

Removal:
SC DB DeAndre Hopkins, who committed to Clemson, as predicted.

Standard Information:
OK QB DeMarco Cobbs has been offered by basically every school as a wideout, but Michigan is giving the likely 5-star a look at QB. He’s been added to the board, but not yet with an offer.

FL LB Jeff Luc is sporting a Michigan offer, and he can’t decide which National All-Star game in which he’d most like to participate. Florida is his favorite, but he plans to wait until at least fall before he makes a decision. Frequent commenter “i know nothing” also brings his video to my attention, which I present for your review:

The dude looks like a heck of a player, and a very violent presence at linebacker. His offer sheet and invitations to both HS All-Star games would speak to this, and Michigan would certainly love to have him.

Michigan has offered FL CB Spencer Boyd. The 5-10, 160-lber also plays running back in high school. Boyd plans to wait until after his senior season to make a final decision. He’s been added to the board. Speaking of Boyd, Jim Stefani gave his information on some of Michigan’s new offerees:

Spencer Boyd DB/RB/WR 5′10 165 4.31 Cape Coral Florida

One of the top junior DBs and RBs in Florida. I have him ranked as among the top 58 DBs in the nation. As a junior, despite being injured part of the year and playing in just 8 games, he had 104 carries for 620 yards, 30 tackles and a 104-yard INT return for a score. Projects as a college CB. Has very quick feet and exceptional change-of-direction. 225 bench, 385 squat as a sophomore. Honorable Mention All-U.S. Army Combine at DB. Impressive on the 2008 combine circuit (4.31 forty, 4.25 shuttle). Named a team captain as a junior. “He’s kind of like our Marshall Faulk – he does a little bit of everything,” [Head Coach] Goebbel said. “He has the speed to take the ball up the sideline and the power to run between the tackles. We can put him out at receiver and he can catch the ball and make things happen that way. “He’s really one of the best overall players around this area.”

Caleb Lavey LB 6′3 225 4.56 Celina Texas

I have him rated as among the top 25 LBs in the nation. As a junior LB he recorded almost 200 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 FFs and 2 FRs. Nice-sized linebacker who has a great frame and runs well. Good nose for the ball and instincts. 275 bench, 27 vertical. 3.9 GPA. His father attended Michigan and was an equipment manager for the football team. 6-3, 225. One of the top junior prospects at the 1A-3A Texas 7 on 7 Tournament…………..2007 1A-3A State Passing Tournament Top 33 Recruits.

D.J. Williamson WR/DB 6′1 180 4.45 Warren Harding Ohio

I have him ranked as among the top 75 WRs in the nation. Sophomore track times: 10.82 100 meters and he qualified for the state meet, 21.7 200 meters. Great speed and nice size for a receiver, Excels as a return man. 270 bench, 315 squat, 32 vertical

Jim has a ton more information on all three of these guys on his site (I’ve trimmed it down significantly), so go check it out if you’re interested. I’ve also added D.J. Williamson to the board. Per the Junior Day updates listed below, he plans to visit Ann Arbor for the Junior Day this weekend. Webb’s update gave the not-so-subtle implication that a commitment is highly likely while Williamson is in town, so be on the lookout. The internet scuttlebutt is that Williamson grew up a huge Michigan fan, and agrees with the “likely commitment” sentiment.

Now, a slight transition into Junior Day talk:
As was the case last year, Michigan’s first Junior Day of the year will coincide with the Night of Champions, a team-wide competition serving as the official end of winter conditioning, and therefore the beginning of spring practice. Of course, the junior day isn’t the first time Michigan has invited 2010 prospects to campus this year, and several players, such as Jerald Robinson (who offered his commitment), William Gholston, and Devin Gardner have already taken in basketball games in Crisler Arena.

So which players are planning to attend this weekend? As Josh Helmholdt reveals in the Free Press:

Among the in-state prospects who’ve stated they plan to attend are Detroit Southeastern defensive end William Gholston, Detroit Cass Tech cornerback Dior Mathis, Inkster quarterback Devin Gardner, Warren Fitzgerald linebacker Austin Gray, Charlevoix offensive lineman Bill Ivan and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s quarterback Robert Bolden.

Spartanburg, S.C., quarterback Cornelius Jones (6-2, 197 pounds) is one of those who is trying to work out a trip to Ann Arbor for the event. He was offered by U-M in January. Flower Mound (Tex.) Marcus running back Stephen Hopkins (6-0, 220) has also said he wants to visit Michigan that weekend.

(Ivan added to the recruiting board). There are also a few more recent updates:

• Sam Webb said last Friday on WTKA that he also expects MI CB Mylan Hicks and MI DE CJ Olaniyan to make it in, but that Cornelius Jones probably won’t have a chance to visit until the spring game.
• Monday, Sam’s WTKA recruiting update included information that DJ Williamson will attend (see above), and SC OL AJ Cann is also going to try to make it up for Junior Day, along with “a few guys from out in Western PA.” I assume that refers to CBs Cullen Christian and Brandon Ifill.
• This Rivals header states that instate RB Austin White will be in attendance as well.

***UPDATE*** Gardner also plans to announce a commitment decision Monday, after (presumably) coming on the Ann Arbor visit. This can certainly be seen as a positive sign, though it’s not guaranteed that Devin Gardner will commit to Michigan.

Posted under Basketball, Coaching, Football, Recruiting

If you’re a particularly astute observer, you may have noticed the “Quick Links” box on the left sidebar has seen a few layoffs of late. That’s partially because of a bit of infrastructure redesign we’ve been working on for a little while. Everything that you’re used to accessing on Varsity Blue should still be around (if something’s not, let us know in the comments), but we’ve also added a couple more items.

The Michigan Class of 2009, Current Michigan Depth Chart, and Michigan Eligibility Chart are still around, but they’re now lumped together under one item called “Personnel HQ.” Soon, I’ll also be putting the finishing touches on the Eligibility Chart by Class, and that will fall under that category as well. The only thing that’s tricky to find is the 2009 Recruiting Board, which can be found on the Class of 2009 page, which is newly spruced up.

New to the site is the “About Varsity Blue” section, which gives a brief synopsis of how Varsity Blue came to be, and links to bio pages for each member of the VB staff. If you’d become accustomed to seeing an invite to follow Paul on Twitter in that left sidebar, fear not, as you can now find that information on his bio page. The same information for the other two of us can also be seen on our respective pages (Tim and FormerlyAnonymous).

The 2010 Recruiting Board is still linked on the left sidebar, and probably will be until around this time next year, after most members of the class sign with Michigan. There are also a few slight adjustments to the site’s design coming along a little further down the road, so be on the lookout for those. For now, feel free to check out some of the new pages and get a feel for the new structure.

If anything is broken, missing, in need of update, etc., or if you have a suggestion for something that you’d like to see, let us know in the comments of this post or the relevant page. I apologize for the abundance of links in this post, but I’m pretty excited to have people checking out all the new and/or updated content.

Posted under Blog News

A series exploring the commitments (and subsequent decommitments) of Michigan’s lost members of the class of 2009.

The Commitment
When searching for dual-threat quarterbacks for the class of 2009, Michigan fans stumbled upon one Shavodrick Beaver. He’s tall, he can run, and his passing is certainly good enough that he could start at a school like Michigan with a little training. Beaver, along with Kevin Newsome and Tate Forcier, was in the group of three prospects that Michigan seemed to have a really good chance at. When Newsome committed, the race appeared to be on between Forcier and Beaver. Shavodrick took control of his own destiny, and committed to Michigan on April 29th, 2008.

The Decommitment
Despite having commitments from 2 top QBs, many Michigan fans found it curious that Rodriguez continued to recruit Tate Forcier. As Newsome decommitted in late August, Forcier snagged the empty slot, and Michigan’s QB situation appeared to be set. Beaver seemed to be very solid in the class, telling anyone who would listen that he welcomed the competition, and seeming to mock Kevin Newsome for fearing it. Fast forward to December, when BEaver was still saying all the right things about Michigan. However, he apparently had shut out the Michigan coaches for a couple weeks by the time he withdrew his commitment on December 19th, switching to Tulsa. Rumors flew about the actual reason (afraid of competition, wanted to be a big fish in a smaller pond, wanted to stay closer to home, etc.), but nobody ever really heard a plausible reason straight from Beaver’s mouth. In January, he enrolled at Tulsa, and that was that.

The Impact
No sugarcoat, this decommitment hurt Michigan, at least in the short term. At the time of his decommitment all the way to Signing Day, Michigan only had 1 QB in the class when they urgently needed two. Landing Denard Robinson softened the blow, because he is a running threat similar to Beaver. However, you can’t teach Robinson to be 6-4, and he will always have slightly less potential than Beaver as a passer. Robinson is considered a faster runner, and has the ability to play multiple positions. This helps Michigan because it gives them 2 quarterbacks with slightly different skillsets, and gives them the ability to move Robinson to defensive back in the future to make the depth chart more attractive to future recruits (if necessary).

Posted under Football, Recruiting

I’m not sure why this became such big news on the internet last week, since it’s been known for like 2 months, but Michigan’s spring practice does indeed start this weekend, and the spring game will indeed be on April 11th. For said spring game, I’m certainly interested in a VB tailgate or even a Michigan blogosphere-wide tailgate. More on that as the date gets closer, I presume. My actual spring coverage should commence once spring practice is underway and there’s Actual News to report.

The beginning of spring practice always brings with it a host of junior visitors hitting campus, and this year is no exception. The first official junior day of the year is scheduled to be this weekend (more on that later this week).

Of course, it wouldn’t be spring without a preliminary injury report: Both Michael Shaw and Jonas Mouton are expected to miss the entire spring with injuries, and Mouton’s may be serious enough to keep him out this fall as well. As of now, those are the only two guys who are reportedly injured, but as actual drills commence, that number is certain to increase.

Speaking of spring injuries, last year, Corey Zirbel suffered one of the career-0ending variety. However, Zirbel is still hanging around Schembechler Hall, now serving as a student assistant to OL coach Greg Frey.

Basketball
Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims were named first- and second-team all-conference, respectively, by the media (Sims dropped to third team by the coaches).

Hockey
The long-awaited announcement about an outdoor game at Camp Randall Stadium finally came out last week. The new buzz has Michigan hosting an outdoor contest of their own in December 2010. Candidates for an opponent would be Michigan State or a rematch with the Badgers.

Baseball
FormerlyAnonymous should be out of commission for a couple more days, but will be back with a vengeance when he returns. Expect a flurry of baseball updates, especially with a huge series looming this weekend at Arizona.

I apologize for the quick-hit style of this post, but that’s life sometimes, I guess.

Posted under Baseball, Basketball, Football, Hockey, Spring Coverage

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

Half 2

Individual Players

Stu’s negative differential doesn’t necessarily say anything bad about him, so much as it says a lot about how important LLP’s performance was on this day.

Zack had a very good differential for how little he played, and he was on the floor for a big part of the run late in the second half that allowed Michigan to get back in the game. He wasn’t particularly active in it (except for one big block that caused a shot clock violation on the Gophers), but hey, he was out there.

Played almost the whole game, and shot much better (in terms of decision-making) than he had been.

CJ Lee good DEFENSE, not great OFFENSE. Did a much better job than usual breaking the press, which allowed Beilein to play him over Grady.

Huge. Shot the lights out in the second half when Michigan needed him most. Since I call him out when he’s a liability, I’d better give him props when he plays like this.

Wasn’t on the floor for a few of the negative shifts in the first half, but other than that played the whole game against much bigger opponents.

With such a small sample size, can’t really criticize his negative differential.

The differential number for Sims is surprising, considering he was the game’s leading scorer. He missed the shift in the second half where Michigan really started making the big comeback.

Nothing truly noteworthy. It’s more his steady presence than anything tangible that Merritt helps being to the team.

Got less playing time than last game, and wasn’t a major factor either way.

I saw him catch the ball and not shoot it on FOUR separate occasions. What an improvement! Actually had some very nice plays on defense and offense.

Hooray for big second half comebacks, especially one pulled off with DeShawn Sims on the bench against a team with very good size.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

With information coming in so fast, I may go back to just posting updates as they get full instead of waiting for a particular day of the week. Expect at least one more this week, because there’s a lot of stuff I didn’t fit in here.

Don’t forget to visit the 2010 Michigan Recruiting Board.

PA QB Anthony Gonzalez is a little busy to take his visits right now, but once his basketball season ends, he’ll hit Illinois and Michigan in one trip sometime this spring.

PA QB Malik Stokes (younger brother of 2009 signee WR Je’Ron) says he’s expecting offers to start rolling in once he gets a qualifying score on the SAT. Michigan is one of the schools that he’s predicting might offer.

In other QB news (or non-QB news, as it were), TX QB Aaron Johnson, though he’s a dual-threat QB in high school, and is getting looks from some schools as a quarterback, says that Michigan is looking at him as an athlete, rather than a signal-caller.

FL Slot WR DeJoshua Johnson has accepted an invitation to play in the ESPNU Under Armour All American Game next January. By the time that game rolls around, fans will already know which school the Pahokeeite plans to attend.

CA CB Troy Hill isn’t particularly stoked on Michigan. The implication of that article is that he’s no longer considering Michigan at all after Taylor Hill didn’t end up here (he’s at Kent State), but I think it’s more accurate to say that they have moved from the top of his list into the “others” category, rather than off the list altogether.

“My brother played there but transferred out after they got a new coach,” said Hill.

Apparently, the brother in question is Taylor Hill, but this statement also doesn’t make sense because Taylor Hill never even considered Michigan until Rich Rodriguez became the coach.

This particular Scout headline has a fair amount of relevant information about TX LB Caleb Lavey. 1) He has been offered by Michigan. 2) His dad was an equipment manager for Michigan’s team in the 70s. These things both bode well for Michigan, obviously. Considering all the Michigan connections with LaVey, and the fact that he’s one of the very few linebackers who have been offered, I’d assume at this time that he’s the #1 LB target, and probably the most likely of any player at the position to end up in this class. Of course, things are constantly changing in recruiting, so that status may or may not last for long.

The Detroit Free Press notes that Michigan is interested in OH OL Andrew Donnal. He’s been added to the board as well.

Free Press fluff on CA RB (and noted former teammate of Tate Forcier) Brennan Clay:

“Clay has no plans to make a decision in the near future, but he has not ruled out the possibility either. He will attend Michigan’s spring game in April to see Forcier in his first game-like atmosphere as a Wolverine, but he also plans to spend a few extra days touring the campus and football facilities. Whether that weekend will be enough to seal up Clay’s commitment remains to be seen, but there’s no doubt Michigan will be a strong contender for his services.”

Emphasis mine, because this sounds significantly more positive than conventional wisdom on Clay, for what it’s worth. Most people predict he’ll remain on the west coast (with Oregon as the favorite?). Not only do I think he won’t commit that weekend, but Michigan is a longshot to gain a commitment from him at all. Of course, there’s plenty of time to make up ground.

Georgia and Georgia Tech have both told GA RB Mack Brown that he’ll be able to wear #33 should he choose either of their schools. At Michigan, that number is currently sported by Boubacar Cissoko, but he is rumored to be switching to #2 (then again, rumor has it Justin Turner will wear that number as well, so who knows?). Brown also placed the Wolverines in his top 10 after his offer came through.

FL LB Christian Jones has been offered. So has MD LB/S Josh Furman, and VA LB Aramide Olaniyan has also received his offer (info in header), along with FL DE Delvin Jones. Rounding out the recent offer train is CA S Sean Parker. (All info in headers). All have been added to the board.

Might GA RB Kendrun Malcome be coming up soon in that list of offerees? He certainly thinks that’s likely.

“I think UGA or Michigan will be the next to offer,” he said. “I haven’t heard from Georgia Tech.” Malcome, who also runs track at Southwest, hopes to make a decision during or shortly after the football season.

So take that for what it’s worth.

In what is probably the last item of 2009 recruiting news, NC Ath Larry Raper signed with NC A&T after Michigan decided not to offer him. He has been removed from the 2009 board.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

The shooting data can be found in .xls format here, and the differential data can be found in the multi-game UFR post from earlier this week.

Individual Players

Made a couple gritty white guy plays (normally the domain of Novak), but didn’t shoot well against the Badgers’ suffocating perimeter defense.

Actually played very well. Against a Wisconsin team with lots of tall white guys, I wish he would have gotten more run.

Has a really tough time when the officiating tends to let them play. Of course, that was the standard on one end of the floor for most of the game.

Actually a very good day, considering the only “1” was when Manny screwed him over in a low-clock situation. The differential is also quite good for a 5-point loss.

Didn’t get a ton of minutes, but shot a little better than we’ve come to expect (sad that “better than expected” has become 50% on open 3s).

Didn’t step up as the big third guy, but played admirably against players much taller than he is.

DNP – coach’s decision.

The three-point shooting is bad (though most of them were chucks at the end), and the 1/4 from midrange on makeable shots is uncharacteristic, but think how much more effective Sims could have been with a legit bigman by his side.

Limited playing time, limited effectiveness.

Hardly played at all.

From the differentials, it would appear that point guard play by anyone not named “CJ Lee” was an issue in this game. I’d say this was the case, though I think Grady needs to get minutes in order to be effective as anything other than a press-breaker or spot-up shooter. The Wisconsin defense was pretty good throughout the game, and Michigan’s lack of size really hurt. It’s easy to see how this team will improve next year.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

With most Big Ten teams already sporting at least one commit, it’s time to break out the recruiting class rankings once more. This year, I’ve expanded to include multiple sites’ opinions of each player, though they are listed in order from most to least credible. As Rivals and ESPN release their initial rankings, I’ll update.

For a couple reason (junior days at multiple schools, and the fact that it’s Selection Sunday), no recruiting rankings next Sunday. If there’s reason to, I may publish some later next week instead. The charts should also look prettier in coming weeks.

Lots of highly-ranked guys, al in-state for the Buckeyes. Turner is expected to have 5-star potential.

Strong start to the class. It will be interesting to see where it ends up if the Irish have another weak season.

All these guys are expected to end up in the four-star range.

A couple good in-state commits for the Nittany Lions.

Unlike past years, when Wisconsin would raid the top Minnesota talent, the Gophers are starting to cross the border the other way.

Bullough is expected to end up as a 4-star.

A single in-state commit.

I estimate that He’ll be lower-rated than Illinois’s lone commit, but that’s just a wild-ass guess from me.

Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin – 0 commits.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Boy, it sure is easier finishing one of these coming off a big win (Minnesota) and UFRing a big win (Purdue, obviously), than doing one of a heartbreaking loss (Iowa) while anticipating a make-or-break game. The shooting data can be founf in .xls format here, and the differential data can be found in the multi-game UFR post from earlier this week.

Individual Players

Didn’t take a lot of shots (few players outside of Manny and DeShawn did), but did a decent job with the chances he did get.

Only played a couple minutes because DeShawn Sims was amazing. His differential is awful for playing on a team that won by 9 points.

These numbers don’t look as good as Manny actually was.  A couple of those ‘1’s from the lane weren;t his fault (i.e. a tip-in attempt and an uncalled foul).

Didn’t get as much playing time as he’s gotten accustomed to. It’s worth noting that CJ also missed several free throws in the game (he finished 1-4), including the front ends of two separate 1-and-1s.

Didnt get much run, but showed off his ability to get into the lane at times in the first half. I still think he should be used on the dribble more often. He also had a couple assists off drives as well. If he’s used as a scoring threat, rather than just a shooting threat, it will open up the offense for the stars and the freshman sharpshooters.

For as much playing time as he got, Novak wasn’t used very much on offense. He still did the little things defensively (particularly in rebounding), which is commendable because Purdue has some pretty good size. Still, I wish it wasn’t all boom-or-bust with Zack and Douglass.

A fair amount of playing time against a big Purdue team, and he even got on the court at the same time as Novak in a couple instances. He still shows off his athleticism and lack of actual basketball skill simaultaneously.

Easily the star of the game, especially considering Purdue’s marked size advantage. I’ll let the scoreboard speak for itself.

Got pretty good playing time, and didn’t need to shoot too much. 2 Assists, 0 turnovers, and 1 steal sounds good to me.

Clearly the best ballhandling option, but he’s not nearly the defender of someone like Lee, and he’s lost at times in the offense.

And?

Good performance. Anyone questioning whether the stars of this team were DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris (nobody?) certainly had their uncertainties answered in this game. The big two did most of the work, and let the role players just fill in when necessary.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball