According to Vegas, Michigan is among the favorites to take home the BCS title in 2008. This is most curious, as the prominent preseason magazines fail to even include Michigan in their top 25 lists.

The Freep inconveniently doesn’t give the favorites in numerical order, so I have painstakingly arranged the Vegas odds for you. Included are teams with better than 100/1 odds and other relevant teams:

1. USC 3/1
2. Ohio State 6/1
2. Florida 6/1
2. Georgia 6/1
2. Oklahoma 6/1
6. LSU 12/1
7. Missouri 14/1
8. Clemson 22/1
9. WVU 25/1
10. Michigan 30/1
11. Texas 30/1
12. UMiami 35/1
12. UCLA 35/1
14. Alabama 40/1
14. Auburn 40/1
14. VT 40/1
17. Florida State 50/1
17. Illinois 50/1
17. Penn State 50/1
17. Rutgers 50/1
21. Notre Dame 55/1
22. Kansas 65/1
23. Tennessee 75/1
24. Arizona 80/1
25. Cal 80/1
25. Nebraska 80/1
25. Texas Tech 80/1
25. Wiconsin 80/1
Michigan State 100/1
Iowa 100/1
Field 25/1

In an interview that appeared today on WOWK-TV in West Virginia (and will appear again tomorrow), Rich Rod had some interesting things to sya about his departure from West Virginia.

Rodriguez said the thinly veiled criticism by Stewart was just the new head coach following the crowd.

“I don’t think you should say one thing at one point, then two weeks later, just because it’s popular to be anti-Rich Rodriguez, to say another,” Rodriguez said.

The annual Michigan Football Takeover on WTKA was Friday. MVictors has a bit of audio.

Posted under Coaching

State of” in the sense that Michigan is a state, and in the sense of a condition of being. Part 5: Discussion on reader feedback and questions.

Part 1:
My first assertion, that fans in the state of Michigan are not all fans of the Wolverines, was not disputed:

I’d say Tim is correct. OSU is the only game in football crazy Ohio while Michigan is divided. M could dominate the state but has only done so in SE Michigan. MSWho has been dominate in Saginaw/Flint. But the rest of the state….

Southwest Michigan’s population has Chicago team and Notre Dame fans. Further, you cannot discount the in state MAC teams. Many of my relatives in SW Michigan are Western fans before they are M or MSWho fans. My niece attends Central and knows all about the Chips, but little about Wolverines!

– Wolverine 98284

I agree with Wolverine 98284, but would like to mention that he is perhaps overstating the SW Michigan ties to non-Big 2 schools. In Grand Rapids (where I live, and which could be considered SW Michigan), people are indeed fans of MAC schools, but Michigan and MSU have strong influence as well, along with Notre Dame. I disagree that many SW Michigan residents are Chicago team fans, however. Tigers, Lions, Red Wings, and Pistons are the overwhelming favorite almost throughout the state.

The comparison to Ohio was not a topic of debate, either:

I grew up in Ann Arbor and now live in Cincinnati. Tim is 100% correct about the Buckeyes, it’s the only game in town when it comes to college sports. OSU is even bigger then UC in Cincinnati. Ohio recruits have one choice where to play football and that’s at OSU.

– Bob

Pretty much everyone was in agreement that Ohio is a state united (behind the Buckeyes), whereas Michigan’s loyalties are spread amongst 2-3 (I didn’t account for Notre Dame in the original post, but I think it is definitely something that needs to be accounted for (i.e. eliminated from the face of the earth)).

However, some people didn’t quite see the connection between having 2 “main” schools in the state, and the Wolverines losing recruits to out-of-state schools:

I feel your argument on why Michigan recruits go to other schools (MSU/USC/otherwise) was not fully developed. Are you arguing its because they lack a central allegiance to one school? I could see this as a strong reason to support losing kids to MSU, but I feel its a rather weak argument in regards to USC/out-of-state opposition.

– kowisja

While the split loyalty does indeed mean that the Wolverines will lose some recruits to MSU, I still believe that it does help out-of-state schools with Michigan prospects as well. If a player is a lifelong fan of Michigan, then Michigan has a distinct advantage in his recruitment. However, with a state divided, he is more likely to be a casual fan of the Wolverines (or even a fan of Michigan State). When it comes time to make his decision, Michigan doesn’t have the advantage that they would have had if the Wolverines were the overwhelming choice of the entire state (see: Ohio State), and both instate schools start without as significant an advantage as a single instate school would have had. In addition, if he grew up a State fan, but wants to go to a good school/program, he might choose to go out of state, so as to not have to play for the rival of his favored Spartans.

There were also a few other explanations offered by people:

We have definitely pushed harder to get the recruits from out of state. I don’t quite have the desire to research this, but I’m interested to see how many instate recruits of high ranking and in positions Michigan needs have bolted to schools outside of UM/MSU.

– kowisja

1. Recent Coaches/Success
2. It’s warmer in other places. Hi USC, Florida, LSU.
3. Visibility/Draftability.
4. I hesitate to mention this, but based on various reports: Shadiness. OJ Mayo, Reggie Bush, Maurice Clarett, Troy Smith.

– Dave

I think kowisja’s point isn’t necessarily true, especially regarding a player that he cites as an example, Nick Perry. I don’t believe that the staff missed on Nick Perry because they were focused on out-of-state guys. On the contrary, I think they really wanted him and simply whiffed (note: I think this happened before the new staff was in the picture), mostly because they had taken him for granted. As far as the first part of kowisja’s post, I might go through and do a bit of research about instate prospects who went places other than Michigan or OSU sometime soon.

As far as Dave’s points, I hesitate to ever call #4 into play, mostly because I think it’s more of an excuse than an explanation, but it may be relevant. The first two definitely play something of a role. I think #3 is a nearly-direct result of #1, and if Michigan started winning more, the recruiting rankings, both in- and out-of-state, would improve.

On to Part 2:
Some people tried to help come up with reasons that Michigan produces so much less D-I talent (especially high D-I talent) than Ohio.

Several of our football players stopped playing football to concentrate on soccer, baseball, and particularly hockey, which played a prominant role in our town’s fandom. Are other sports as big of a deal in Ohio? I don’t know about others, but I can’t imagine hockey being as prominant.

– footymcgavin

I originally thought that this would be a significant factor. Obviously Michigan produces more hockey players, but I thought maybe there was something to Michigan’s reputation as a “basketball state” compared to Ohio’s pedigree as a “football state.” However, while Ohio does indeed produce way more football talent, the two states are about even in terms of producing basketball players. With no easy way of checking for soccer and baseball prospects, this is an issue that likely can’t be resolved statistically.

Even still, if such a difference between the two states exists, there must be some explanation why Michigan’s athletes are moving away from football whereas Ohioans stick to the gridiron.

And finally, Part 4:

Most people agreed with the rules that I would change for the MHSAA:
The all star game rule is the dumbest…i remember grady wasn’t able to play in one because of that.

– RJHOVE

There was also a question about coaching, too:

I’m somewhat curious how coaches salaries work in Michigan. Are they subjected (harsh word choice I know) to normal teaching salaries by the Teacher’s Unions, or can they make more money? The football coach at my high school was making more than everyone minus the superintendent for the entire district. Granted our coaching staff was comprised of probably 24 coaches covering 6 football teams (Varsity, JV/A, JV/B, Freshmen A,B,&C). There were at least 2 coaches (HC and OC) that didn’t teach any classes other than Football period. I highly doubt Michigan’s teacher’s union would have the same allowances.

Makes me wonder then how many of the best coaches stay in Michigan, not just the recruits.

– formerlyanonymous

Good points here. However, I’m not sure too many people go into high school coaching as a career, leaving the state for a higher salary. If coaches were moving up to the college ranks, it might make sense, but a great HS coach leaving the state of Michigan for a HS coaching gig in, say, Texas, doesn’t seem to ring true.

On the other hand, it may be the case that some high schools in Texas are able to pay competitive enough salaries to prevent coaches from making a jump to small-college coaching. This would certainly go a long way to keeping good coaches at the high school level within the state
.

Thanks for the great dialog, everyone. If you have anything else you’d like to contribute, I’m all ears.

Posted under Analysis

A friend of mine e-mailed me the brochure that the Athletic Department put together to explain the stadium renovation and “enhanced giving opportunities” to the University that are resulting from the construction. I hadn’t seen this before, so I thought I’d throw out some high lights.

You can click on any image for a higher resolution version.This is probably my favorite page, simply because of the ludicrous amounts of money they’re asking for and how I can’t believe they won’t get it all. The naming rights on this page (except for the Stadium Door Reception Wall) total up to $38.5M, almost 20% of the total construction budget.

These are the club seats that will be under the suites on the Crisler side of the stadium. I wonder how much more the necessary annual contribution is for these than say the 50 yard line row 20. Anyway, if we say the seats average about $2,500 and there are 3,000 of them, that means at least $7.5M per year in gifts in addition to the cost of season tickets. This comes on top of keeping the premium seats in the bowl as well if the rich people want to be with the unwashed masses.
These aren’t super exciting, and I can’t really get a number, but the rendering is pretty cool…

And now the big money makers:
There are 83 available suites (46 on the West side, 37 on the East Side). They come with free parking and “premium food and beverage service.” How premium?

Q13. Will beverage alcohol be available for premium seating patrons?
No. Michigan Stadium, including all premium seating areas, will be an alcohol free environment.

Not premium enough. So continuing with our math, lets assume the suites average $70,000 per year. That totals about $5.8M a year, and that doesn’t even count the gifts one would have to make to the Athletic department in order to get to the point in line to buy a suite.

So let’s recap:

Not too shabby. Assuming an overly simplistic model where all the prices stay the same and no interest has to be paid on the $226M construction costs, just the money from the premium seating could and capital gifts could pay back the costs in 13 years.

Posted under Blog News

Most Michigan fans follow football in the fall and ice hockey (if you like watching a good team) or basketball (if you’re a masochist) in the winter. Many spring sports don’t seem to get the same attention that the other seasons do. It could be because there’s no revenue sport or, more likely, a large part of their seasons are played after students leave campus for the summer.

Well, I’ve been in Ann Arbor the past two summers and have noticed that the spring sports have been ridiculously good the past two years. Women’s track and field finished with a share of the Big Ten title last year and was runner up this year. The male runners won the title outright this year.

This year, women’s tennis made it to the second round NCAA tournament, while the men made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Both teams improved upon somewhat breakout seasons the year before.

Then there is baseball and softball. Both teams last year made it to the super regionals and gave the teams they played hell. I remember watching baseball’s first game against Oregon State in the Super Regional. Zach Putnam pitched a ridiculously good game. He only gave up one hit, but unfortunately that one hit brought in a run which was enough to earn Putnam the loss. It was one of the best baseball games I had seen.

As well as those teams did last year, the prospects are looking even better this year. One of the biggest reasons is the new Wilpon Baseball and Softball Palace Complex. Last year both teams played on the road in the Super Regional round. Michigan did not even put in a bid for either sport as the stands and press boxes were torn apart for the new construction. This year is different. Now Michigan has one of the nicer facilities, especially in the Midwest. Softball hosted and won its regional and will hope to do the same when it hopes the Super Regional this weekend. Baseball also has a very good chance of hosting it’s Super Regional series if it made it out of the regional round.

The new Ray Fisher Stadium will be getting it’s first test of a large baseball event when it hosts the Big Ten Tournament this weekend. In an e-mail from the media contact for baseball he said “With the new Press Box there is ample room, but I need to know who is coming so I can have Press Credentials waiting in your name.” which is a drastic change from last year when the media room was a tent behind Yost.

If you are in the area, check out baseball and softball this weekend. The schedule for the Big Ten tournament isn’t posted yet, but softball is set to play Virginia Tech at Noon this Saturday. Even if you’re not in town, you can catch the softball team on ESPN and I assume BTN will cover the tournament.

It could be a special year for both of these teams. They deserve all the support they can get.

UPDATE: Details about ticket prices and availability for baseball are here. Similar details for the softball super regional tickets are here. Take-home points: Baseball is $7 per game. Softball is $5 for general admission bleachers or $7-$8 for the nice, new grandstand.

Posted under Baseball

The football program at a big-time Division I University is a multi-faceted entity, and it requires many changes to individual aspects in order to radically change the program as a whole. Improvement can be measured in terms of wins, merchandise, exposure, academic achievement, even recruiting rankings, but most accurately by some sort of aggregation of these things. The Michigan football program, while still the nation’s winningest of all time, has room for improvement. To move in a direction of positivity and modernity, I propose the following changes. Some of them apply to the athletic department on the whole.

• Upgrade/update the spring game.
• Create a new website (separate from MGoBlue) about Michigan’s facilities. People (including recruits in every sport) care about the facilities at schools. A virtual tour of every facility for practicing, competing, or studying would be entertaining and enlightening. You have the facilities, so make a well-designed website to brag about them. Model it after the Arkansas version of same.
• Speaking of websites, scrap the new MGoBlue. It looks terrible and is a pain in the ass to maneuver. Cloning the (terrible) layouts of CSTV sites was an awful idea. The new video, audio, and photo items are great, but there had to have been a better way to integrate them into the site.
• Encourage more media exposure. With the Rich Rodriguez regime, this has improved a great deal. Rod has been all over ESPN and the local media, and even Mike Barwis is getting interviewed by Brice Feldman. Still, encourage more of this. The all-access feature on College Football Live was a great start. Being more friendly to the media (local and national) means that the media will be more friendly back to you.
• Encourage walkons. Like media exposure, Rodriguez has already started doing this. Like Bo Pelini’s plan to revive Nebraska football, having homegrown walkons will help the team because they are proud to be Wolverines. Take kids from Michigan and Ohio especially, but also any other student who can make the cut. If kids would rather walk on at Michigan than get a scholarship at Michigan State, it would put a smile on my face.
• At least try for a night game. If it means the old alumni won’t come, well… that may not necessarily be a bad thing.
• Give out free maize shirts to fans during maize out games. A sponsor will undoubtedly cover the entire cost, and the “special event” game will no longer look like crap.
• Like Beilein’s meeting with the Maize Rage to brainstorm ideas, have Rod (along with Bill Martin, Bruce Madej, even Marty Bodnar) meet with students for the same purpose. I am not the only person with these sorts of ideas, let the other ones come out.
• Perhaps most importantly (and, unfortunately, least under our control), continue beating Notre Dame and Michigan State, and start beating Ohio State. On top of bragging rights and prestige, this helps recruiting. Enough said.

This is just a little collection of some ideas that didn’t take me more than five minutes to come up with. If you have any of your own, drop them in the comments.

Posted under Coaching

The NCAA published its Academic Progress Rate reports yesterday, and Michigan has a clean bill of health. All scores were above the penalty cutoff of 925, and three sports (both genders of golf and women’s tennis) recorded perfect scores of 1000.

Since Michigan’s main sports have been so attrition-y lately, let’s see if they are in danger for next year (when players who left the program this year will count against APR).

Football’s score was 951. In the past year, the team has lost Adrian Arrington and Mario Manningham to the NFL. Arrington was a fourth-year junior, and probably graduated prior to leaving Michigan. Manningham may have been enough of an academic liability to hurt APR next year. To transfers, Michigan has lost Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) and Justin Boren (Ohio State). I know nothing of their academic prowess, though I would assume that at least Boren was in good standing when he left. Several players have also left the team for other reasons. If Johnny Sears doesn’t hurt the APR, I’ll be shocked. Alex Mitchell and Jeremy Ciulla are the only other two that spring immediately to mind, and I know nothing of their academics either.

Basketball’s score was 927, dangerously close to sanctions. With all the people that left the program (Kendric Price, Jerret Smith, Ekpe Udoh, K’Len Morris), I wouldn’t be surprised if the team at least gets a warning for next year. At least they’re not completely toast like Indiana, already below the cutoff, and going downhill with lots of attrition in this offseason.

Posted under Basketball

No but seriously, basketball?

One of the most important aspect of running a successful athletic department is being able to rely on your revenue sports to support everything else that goes on. Under Bill Martin, Michigan has been able to turn from a money sink into one of the nation’s most successful athletic programs (monetarily) despite not having a basketball team that has been anywhere close to successful. Thus, if Michigan is able to make the basketball team a big draw, and perennial NCAA tournament participant-type program, it can only continue to help.

Without further introduction, I present the basketball-relevant portion of Bill Martin’s interview with the BTN’s Dave Revsine:

It is clear that Martin is intent on supporting basketball, and trying to bring success back to the program.

Facilities
Crisler Arena is a dump. Regardless of what Martin says, it really should just be demolished, and the AD should start over from scratch (a few suggestions: smaller size, better concourse layout, and location closer to campus (ok, that one is just a pipe dream)). Failing that, The House that Cazzie Built is eventually going to be overhauled for the better, though definitely not until Michigan Stadium is completed, and probably not until there is a practice facility. The practice facility is apparently ready for approval. The sooner that can be completed, the better for Michigan Hoops. Interesting note: Martin stated in no uncertain terms that the funding for a facility will be ready whenever plans are completed.

Recruiting
Martin states that he doesn’t want his coach to recruit players who want to go one-and-done to the pros. Luckily for him, the coach he hired is John Beilein, who does not seem to favor this type of player (and nor does his system). Martin favors the NBA amending its entry rules to require players to spend 3 years in school (I believe they should probably step it up one year at a time).

The Future
Though Beilein was unable to get it done in year one, the improvement made by the team over the course of the year was encouraging, and it is unlikely we will see 2008-09 be a repeat of the epic struggles of 2007-08. With several players accustomed to the system after one year in it, and a few new additions who are good fits for Beileinball, an NIT bid isn’t out of the question. Though that may not be good enough for some fans, it is important to remember how far this program had fallen, and realize that it will take some time to rise again.

Udoh
Rumors have been circulating for weeks that Junior-to-be Power Forward Ekpe Udoh intends to transfer from the University of Michigan. This has now become official. While I am not sure he is making the right decision (though UMHoops.com’s analysis has certainly gone a long way to convince me), I wish Udoh the best of luck in the future.

Posted under Basketball

After this past weekend, many Michigan fans were up in arms over the comparatively festive spring game atmospheres at rival schools (Notre Dame, Ohio State, and even Michigan State) as compared to the less than 5,000 fans who took in Michigan’s final spring scrimmage at a nearby high school. For the future, I would love to see a better spring game.

Why not this year? There were tons of extenuating circumstances (pretty much all out of Rodriguez’s control) that prevented a spring game from happening. Most of them will not be present, at least to their current magnitude, next year.

• Construction in the Big House. Even if they weren’t going to have a legitimate game this year because of other circumstances, they probably would have still invited fans to come to a practice in the Big House had it been available. Next year, the magnitude of construction won’t be as great (there is literally no East Concourse anymore, just steps that lead to a cliff – photo credit to UMGoBlue.com), and they’ll hopefully be able to use the Big House for the game, even though construction won’t be completed.
• Installing a new system. This year, Coach Rodriguez and his coaches were installing completely new offensive and defensive schemes, which is something that they probably won’t be doing again in their time at Michigan. Even upperclassmen are learning something completely new, which won’t be the case in future years.
• Playing catch-up. On top of a completely new system to teach the players, Michigan’s new coaches had other areas in which they were playing catch-up as well. They had to gain back ground on the 2008 recruiting class, start anew for the 2009 class, get to know each other (along with terminology and schemes in some cases), buy houses, and integrate themselves into the community in Ann Arbor. When they don’t have all these things to make up ground, they’ll be able to teach more effectively in the spring, and plan for a spring game.
• Rodriguez had other things to worry about. Including his lawsuit, which he has a stake in, regardless of the fact that his lawyers are doing all the actual legwork.

Is it likely we’ll see one in the future? Yes. Spring games give media exposure which is good in almost every way. It certainly helps with recruiting. Also helping with recruiting is being able to invite tons of top prospects to the game, and show them an exciting atmosphere. Also, Rich Rodriguez has had one in the past at West Virginia. Almost no school this day can sustain a great program without some form of popular spring game.

So what makes a great spring game? Several factors have to come together to make a spring game truly great. The event must be about not only the game, but a carnival-like atmosphere around it.

• First, the game must be entertaining. This means 1st team offense v. 1st team defense, backups v. backups on two teams, with standard timing, scoring, etc. No “offense v. defense” games with complicated and weird scoring systems that nobody can remember (much less decipher in some instances). If you don’t want to do special teams for the sake of avoiding injuries, they can be left out or limited.
• Inviting recruits is also important. Even if many of them can’t come, letting them know that you are thinking about them (a la a Pete Carroll text message) is important to prospects, especially those who won’t get an offer, but still want to feel like BMOCs. This is also big for keeping in-state coaches happy.
• Media coverage. I wouldn’t be surprised if BTN has exclusive rights to all spring coverage of conference schools, which hurts somewhat (it means no GameDay, and no national coverage on basic cable unless the network gets picked up by more carriers), but at least it is something. The game should be on live television, presented exactly as though it is a real game.
• Have other important people there. Invite back every football alum who is or has been in the NFL (photo of Lamarr Woodley, Pierre Woods, and ? thanks to MVictors.com). Invite other prominent Michigan grads (Lucy Liu, Michael Phelps, Steve M. Ross) to come as well, and make the whole thing into an event. The famous people can even come together and coach the teams.
• Band, cheerleaders, alumni cheerleaders, etc. Make it a clone of a real game.
• Have other events around the game, like Ohio State (Lacrosse game in the ‘Shoe) or Florida (sprints between students and players).
• Not sure if this is allowed per NCAA rules, but invite signed recruits to the game, and introduce them to the fans over the loudspeaker. That lets future recruits know how important they are to the program, and also helps fans know who will be on future teams.
• Advertise the game more. Statewide, via direct-mail lists, alumni associations, etc. Get fans in the seats.
• Have the parking lots open for tailgating, just like any other game.

Take a lesson from Don Canham, Mr. Martin (and Mr. Rodriguez) and advertise the event and the program, not just the game itself. Having a big spring game can only help the program achieve long-term success.

Have any other ideas? Drop them in the comments.

Posted under Recruiting, Spring Coverage

Both the Detroit News and the Michigan Daily (featuring quotes from Mary Sue Coleman, the most obvious source in the world for a story like this!) have articles that essentially sate Jim Carty is nothing more than a gossip monger, trying to make a name for himself by making something out of nothing. In the Daily article, even Professor Paris, Carty’s crucial witness, declined an interview because he wanted nothing to do with Carty’s slam piece.

The only point I haven’t seen Carty ridiculed on is his assertion that athletes were allowed to enroll in classes only a month before the semester ends, with professor permission. What Carty fails to mention is that this is the late Drop-Add deadline, during which any student can enroll in a class with prohttp://www.blogger.com/img/gl.link.giffessor permission.

Etc.: Michael Shaw and Brandon Moore excel in Ohio state track finals. Charles Woodson gives back. UM, not PSU may finish runner-up for Pryor.

Later today: Hockey highlights.

Posted under Blog News

Brief summary of Carty’s (again idiotic) points:
1. Athletes want to get their degrees (just like just about everyone else at the University).
2. They want to make getting their degree as easy as possible (just like most other students).
3. They go about getting their degrees in a legal and ethical way by taking an easy major (like about half of other students (I’m looking at you, fellow Comm majors)).
4. When one degree (kinesiology) became to hard to get, a number of athletes switched to a different, completely legal and ethical degree path.

Smoking gun, Carty still seeks. 0 for 2 so far. The main frustration for me is that real life journalists and ESPN journalists are going to take this drivel and run with it, giving Carty some sort of credibility that he is no where close to deserving.

Posted under Blog News