After John Ferrara moved to the offensive line, there were questions about why it was necessary. The reason? Corey Zirbel appears to be out for (at least) the season:

The position move comes on the heels of the realization that guard Cory Zirbel likely will miss the season with a knee injury.
“It’s pretty significant,” Rodriguez said. “We’re not even hopeful he’ll be able to return this year.”

Though it was known that Zirbel and redshirt freshman Mark Huyge were injured, the extent of Zirbel’s injury is more severe than Michigan can really afford. Huyge is week-to-week with a high ankle sprain.

In other injury news, Freshman slot receiver Terrance Robinson will also miss a couple weeks with injury. This likely means that Michael Shaw, Sam McGuffie, Toney Clemons, and Very Horn will get more playing time at the position than was expected.

On a lighter note, the Bowling for Brock event to aid Elliot Mealer’s brother was last night, and the Free Press has a photo gallery.

Mixed reports out of Utah camp on whether the offense is struggling…
or doing as well as expected.

Just over a week away from the season, time to start getting really excited.

Posted under Personnel

One of the great allures of the bowl season is being able to see evenly-matched teams duke it out on a neutral site. However, is that perception or reality? Of course, the teams aren’t always evenly matched (see USC v. Illinois), nor is the site ever truly neutral (see USC v. Illinois). Fans of the SEC are always quick to cite their good record in bowl games (and any other stat that perpetuates the OMG SEC AWESOMEZ myth). What they are failing to mention is that the SEC has a de facto home game for many of their games. What other conferences are favored? Let’s take a look.

2008 bowl season winning percentage by conference:

Average Distance from Bowl Site (in miles as the crow flies) tells us, on average, how far each conference team had to travel to get to their game. However, this doesn’t tell us the whole story. If two teams are both very far from the bowl in which they will be playing, there is no real home field advantage ceded for either one. To give a better idea of home-field advantage, it would be better to look at how much location may favor one team over the other. Delta distance measures how much closer to bowl site a team is over their opponent. The conference numbers are sums of all of these (in miles as the crow flies). As you can see, the PAC-10 and SEC are heavily favored by this, as is the Mountain West conference. Perhaps not coincidentally, these have the highest win percentages of any conference. Of note is the fact that every single SEC team had a positive Delta distance. That is, they were all closer to their bowl site than the opponent.

Of course, the sample sizes are very small, so it is hard to draw any definite conclusions, but it is apparent that some conferences are favored rather heavily by the locations of their bowls. If anyone would like this data to work with the numbers a bit more, drop your contact information in the comments.

Posted under Analysis

I didn’t want to say it, for fear of a jinx, or looking like an idiot when we got obliterated, but for some reason I just had a feeling that Michigan would be able to knock off Florida. The talent that Michigan had all year was finally able to put together a completely healthy effort, leaving the 2007 season with a major “what if?” for Michigan fans. Notes:

• I was talking to some Florida fans before the game. The UF Athltic Department tells the fans what color to wear for each game, and they manage to get (mostly) everyone wearing either blue or orange. In two years of teeling everyone to wear the same color for every single game (no confusion excuse), how is it possible that Michigan is unable to get a uniform crowd, even for a maize out?
• It’s not all positive for Florida fans, though. They really showed off their SEC speed in getting the hell out of the stadium with 3+ minutes left in the game (after the first failed fourth down conversion).
• How is it possible that Michigan ticket sales were cut off because they ran out, yet the stadium was still 80% Florida fans? Something in bowl ticket distribution definitely needs to be adjusted.
• The Michigan band’s halftime show was a mixture of a few songs from their various crappy halftime shows this year. At least they know how to make more than 5 different formations unlike the Florida band. Speaking of which, how awesome would it be for one of the band formations to be a shape of Michigan?
• I didn’t hear any talking heads spouting about SEC speed after the game. How about Morgan Trent chasing down OMG HEISMAN SHOE-IN 2008 Percy Harvin from behind, coming all the way across the field. Of course, all will be forgotten by the National Championship game, regardless of who wins that one (unless OSU just houses Louisiana State).
• Great scheming, both offensively and defensively, by the coaches. If only DeBord had called games like this all year long. On a similar note, word on the street is that coach English will be named DC at Louisville. Good luck to him in the future.
• Pat Forde is really dumb. I’ve heard people criticizing him consistently for the past couple years, but only recently started reading to see what the big deal is. They were right.
• Players leaving? Rumor and innuendo are all that is out there, but among impact players, Manningham, Mallett, Taylor, and Arrington are the only ones consistently cited. Hell of a showcase game for Arrington if he decides to leave.

Pictures from the game (maybe) coming when I get back to Ann Arbor.

Posted under Analysis

I wanted to watch some Florida games before writing a preview of their team, but I didn’t have the opportunity here in Orlando. Specifically, I wanted to be able to see what Auburn did against the Gators both this year and last (this year: held them to 17 points, the only time they scored below 30; last year: hold them to 17 points, only team to defeat the Gators). Obviously, I’m of the opinion that if Michigan can hold Florida below 17 they can win this game. Instead, I’ll have to give a more shallow preview, for which I’ll apologize now.

Pretend like this isn’t BC and Michigan State.

Florida starts and ends with Tim Tebow. The 2007 Heisman trophy winner rushed for 838 yards and 22 touchdowns, while passing for 3132 yards and 29 touchdowns. He is, like, good and stuff. Michigan will look to Shawn Crable to stuff Tebow’s running, and the Michigan secondary to stop his passing. The Wolverines’ secondary has turned into something of a strong point this year with two senior safeties in Brandent Englemon and Jamar Adams, along with a very good corner in Morgan Trent, and a developing freshman in Donovan Warren. The main question in defending the pass is the depth, as Florida will try to spread apart Michigan with 5-wide sets (which will also open up the scramble for Tebow). Brandon Harrison is an adequate nickel, and Stevie Brown will be a good safety someday. However, neither of these players is a world-beater. Quarterback pressure will play a key role in forcing Tebow to throw, rather than run (by containing him, something Michigan has done very poorly this year), and also by making him get rid of the ball more quickly than he wants to.

Percy Harvin is Florida’s other key offensive weapon, and he is a fast one. Harvin was recruited as a wide receiver, but most of his offensive touches this year have been runs. However, he is still the Gators’ second-leading receiver, to Andre Caldwell. The Florida O-line has still been incapable of coming up with a conventional running attack, but with Tebow and Harvin in the backfield, that is nearly irrelevant.

The Florida defense is where more of the vulnerability lies. 37 points ceded to Kentucky and 42 to Georgia are certainly signs that this isn’t last year’s Gator D. The pass efficiency defense, in particular, is a sore point for the Gators, ranking 63rd after last year’s #4 unit. Losing sackmaster Jarvis Moss hurts, as does the entire secondary, most of whom (including big-hitting safety Reggie Nelson) are playing in the NFL. The problem for Michigan is quarterback play. Chad Henne hasn’t been healthy all year, and Ryan Mallett clearly isn’t ready to lead Michigan yet (and may be considering a transfer). The receivers are fairly reliable, with the occasional ball they shouldn’t drop, and the protection has been slightly subpar this year as well.

The running game for Michigan may be a problem as well. The Wolverines struggle in 2007, especially towards the end of the year. The offensive line performance was pitiful against Ohio State, and if they don’t get it together, this could be an ugly game. Mike Hart’s high ankle sprain has had some time to heal, and his backups got some time this year, in case he is unable to compete at 100%.

The coaching will play a large role in this game as well, and herein lies the separation. Urban Meyer is one of America’s elite coaches, and Lloyd Carr is on his way out, partially because he just can’t do it anymore. Urban calls the plays for Florida, and he does a great job, with last year’s National Title game as a prime example. Genius plays such as the Tebow Option Pass left the Buckeyes defense… er… defenseless, and Chris Leak was able to complete his first 8 passes, helping develop his confidence. Michigan’s defensive braintrust has thus far been unable to stop a spread-option offense, and Rich Rodriguez has not worked with the Wolverines yet to help with this situation. Michigan’s offensive playcalling is just bad, and Michigan fans probably won’t be sad to see Mike DeBord leave after the Capital One Bowl.

In terms of intangibles, perhaps the most important factor is Michigan’s coaching staff being in control of this game while on the way out. Will the team fire up to play for Lloyd’s last game, or fold because their leaders are lame ducks? In addition, many on the coaching staff may be worried about their next stop, rather than this game, causing them to lose focus. Home field advantage will be strongly against Michigan (as it almost always is in the bowl season). At the Champs Sports Bowl, an usher told me he expects the crowd of 72,000 to be split 75-25 in favor of the Gators (note to Michigan fans attending the game: see this as an opportunity, not an excuse) (for the record, the Champs Sports Bowl was 60-40 in favor of State). The last intangible to take into consideration is the Curse of the Heisman. Like nearly all such curses, the COTH is likely a myth. However, there may be some truth to egos being inflated for players taking home the trophy. Troy Smith, Reggie Bush, and Jason White all lost their bowl games, though it’s fair to say that Urban Meyer, Vince Young, and the USC Trojans had something to do with that.

Posted under Analysis

Illinois will face off against USC in the Rose Bowl, meaning that Michigan will be in the Capital One Bowl, typically reserved for the #2 team in the Big Ten (this year, it will be the #3 team, as the conference has two BCS teams). The Wolverines will face off against the Gators of Florida, likely giving Ron English one last chance to stop a spread offense.

Posted under Misc.

Posted under BlogPoll

As many experts predicted, Michigan’s bowl game for this season will be played in Orlando – though it’s not yet clear which Sunshine State bowl will feature the Wolverines. The Capital One Bowl, on January 1st, and the Champs Sports Bowl, played on December 28th, are Michigan’s two options. How did it get here?

Illinois and Michigan tied for second in the Big Ten, with Wisconsin in fourth, and Penn State tied with Iowa for fifth. The Big Ten’s bowl tie-ins (in order, excluding BCS bowls, which have first choice) are: Capital One, Outback, Alamo, Champs Sports, and Motor City (with a host of eligible teams, a Big Ten team may also garner an at-large bid to another bowl). With Michigan tied for second, it would follow that they would likely be selected to either the Capital One or Outback Bowl.

However, Wisconsin has already accepted a bid to the Outback Bowl, and Penn State has done the same with the Alamo. This leaves Illinois and Michigan alone near the top of the Big Ten standings, with the Capital One and Champs Sports Bowls between them. Illinois will be selected before Michigan, but that selection may in fact be for an at-large BCS bid, allowing Michigan to get into the Capital One Bowl. However, if the BCS does not select Illinois, Michigan will be left to the Champs Sports Bowl. This means that Michigan fans should be rooting for Illinois to make it into the BCS.

What has to happen for the Illini to get their first such bid since 2001? Let’s examine the current BCS situation. There are 5 BCS bowls, meaning ten bids. BCS conferences all have a minimum of one (conference champion) and a maximum of two (conference champion plus one at-large) teams that will go to the BCS. At large bids are available to teams in the top 18 of the BCS rankings.
1. Missouri 11-1
2. West Virginia 10-1
3. Ohio State 11-1
4. Georgia 10-2
5. Kansas 11-1
6. Virginia Tech 10-2
7. LSU 10-2
8. USC 9-2
9. Oklahoma 10-2
10. Florida 9-3
11. Boston College 10-2
12. Hawaii 11-0
13. Arizona State 9-2
14. Tennessee 9-3
15. Illinois 9-3
16. Clemson 9-3
17. Oregon 8-3
18. Wisconsin 9-3

Big Ten and Big East – 1 or 2, 1
Ohio State and West Virginia, champions of the Big Ten and Big East respectively, are guaranteed BCS berths. The Big East will not send a second team, and the point of this exercise is obviously to see if the Big Ten can. Illinois will be the second Big Ten team.

Big 12 – 2
If Missouri beats Oklahoma, winning the Big 12, they will go to the BCS championship game, and Kansas will get an at-large berth to the BCS. If Oklahoma wins, they will get the Big 12 auto-bid, and either Mizzou or Kansas will get an at-large. Either way, the Big 12 sends two teams (remember, they cannot send three).

SEC – 2
Georgia, idle this week, is high enough in the BCS rankings to be guaranteed a BCS bid. The winner of the LSU-Tennesse SEC championship game will get the conference’s auto-bid. The SEC will send 2 teams to the BCS. Florida, while ranked ahead of Illinois, will be shut out from the BCS due to the maximum of 3 teams per conference.

ACC – 1 (or 2)
Virginia Tech and Boston College play for the ACC title in Jacksonville on Saturday. The winner of this game will get a BCS bid. If Boston College wins, VT may stay high enough in the rankings to be considered for an at-large bid. If VT wins, Boston College will certainly drop from consideration. Either way, it is unlikely that the ACC gets more than one bid.

PAC-10 – 1 or 2
USC is a shoe-in to the PAC-10 title, unless rival UCLA pulls a massive upset (don’t count it out – they upset USC last year, and Stanford(!) managed to pull it off this year). Also under BCS consideration is Arizona State, who faces rival Arizona this week. Arizona State is ranked two spots ahead of Illinois, and it would certainly be possible for them to get a bid over the Illini – assuming they get past the Wildcats. If both teams lose, the Oregon Ducks have a chance to go to the Rose Bowl by beating Oregon State.

Others – 1
Hawaii (ugh schedule ugh) is ranked 12th in the BCS, which is the cutoff for non-BCS conference teams to get an automatic bid to the Big Dance. Therefore, if they defeat Washington on Saturday, they will earn the right to get pasted in a big time bowl.

Add up those totals, and there are 12 teams that have BCS potential. Clearly, they can’t all make it in. Thus, the Illini (and, by extension, Wolverines) will have to cheer for a select few teams this weekend to end up where they want. The best case scenario is VT winning the ACC, either USC or Arizona State falling (or both, for that matter), and Washington beating Hawaii. If all those things happen, look for the Illini in the BCS, and Michigan in the Capital One Bowl.

(…and to think, I started this post with the intention of noting that Wisconsin and Penn State had already accepted bids…)

Posted under BlogPoll