This edition of the mailbag will cover some of the e-mails people sent while I was gone. This time, it will be the ones related to recruiting.

Tom asks:

In the past week it was announced that Virginia Tech is pulling a scholarship offer from a QB recruit over some legal problems the kid was having. Prior to Newsome declaring his intent to Michigan, he was pretty much considered “in the bag” at VT. So, my question is, how strong a verbal is he to us ?? Can/will we lose him ??

And I have gotten other people asking similar versions of this question, such as this one from penst8grad:

Ignore the email address, lifelong Wolverine fan here. Couldn’t afford the out of state tuition.

Local Penn State homer radio network is reporting that Newsome is having second thoughts and is going to visit schools. They honestly think they have a pretty good shot at him.

Do you know anything about this?

As far as the Penn State angle, I would take anything Nittany Lion homers say with a grain of salt. They have a major Michigan complex, and taking a QB committed to Michigan is something that many Penn State fans would have wet dreams about. It seems like something spoken out of hope rather than reality.

Overall, however, I can’t speak (other than from logic) on this situation. Since I’ve been out of the loop for three weeks, this is the most comprehensive answer I can give at this time. If something has developed since I left, I will certainly update the situation.

Fans were worried when there were rumblings from Virginia that Kevin Newsome might consider reneging on his verbal commitment because he wanted Rich Rodriguez to accept fewer quarterbacks. Many took this to mean that he was opposed to the commitment of Shavodrick Beaver, but since it has become clear that Michigan does not intend to take a third quarterback, the noise has quieted down.

Virginia Tech would have taken Newsome over the QB commit that they already had either way. He is one of the top-rated QBs in the country. He picked Michigan based on factors other than QBs coming in the class with him. Depth chart (VT may be redshirting Tyrod Taylor this year, making Newsome a year further away from getting on the field), education (VT is… a decent but not elite school), and coaching style (Michigan’s spread seems to be tailor-made for Newsome) all played a role.

Kevin Newsome seemed entirely confident in his choice of schools, and has not ever mentioned that he wants to take other visits. Another good sign is the fact that he has been recruiting other players for the 2009 class. It appears as though Newsome is quite solid. Unless something dramatic happens between Newsome and the Michigan coaching staff, expect to see Kevin on campus come January.

Commenter Thruline asks:

What’s up with Iowa? They were able to get quality players much more readily in times past.

Iowa had a few of pretty good recruiting classes around 2002-2005. The reasons this isn’t happening anymore are many:

1. Competition. When Iowa was reeling in top classes, Illinois was a bad program with a bad coach. Notre Dame was being run into the ground by Ty Willingham. While neither Ron Zook nor Charlie Weis is a gret football coach, both are excellent recruiters (and are trying to build better staffs to make up for their inadequacies on the field). Iowa’s good classes came mostly from Chicago’s top players when there was almost nobody to fight against for them. Now, there are two better options for recruits, and Iowa has to pick up the leftovers from the Illini and Irish.
2. Iowa’s case is also a textbook example of poor results on the field leading to worse recruiting returns off it. Iowa won back-to-back-to-back shares of the big ten title in ’02-’04, and this is when they were pulling down all the top guys. These teams succeeded with sleepers, overachievers, and the occasional top prospect. Since the more highly-ranked players have come in, Iowa has wasted their talent by underperforming on the field, and getting in tons of trouble off it. Top recruits simply don’t want to take on the risk of plying their trade in Iowa City.

I would expect that Iowa will continue to get middle of the pack recruiting classes in the Big Ten, but they will have to start performing better in order to regain footing among the elite recruiting teams in the country.

And frequent e-mailer RJ wonders:

I was wondering how you determine a player’s ceiling

(In asking this question, RJ is referring to my posts about the ceilings and floors of the past two Michigan recruiting classes (2007) (2008)). Of course, like almost everything in recruiting, determining a player’s ceiling (maximum potential) is entirely subjective, as is determining the floor (minimum potential), though the floor is a little easier to determine based on polish and high school performance.

The ceiling is essentially based on a player’s untapped potential. Measurables are a pretty good indicator of possible ceiling levels. If a player runs a 4.4 forty, but had the same high school production as a player with a 4.7 forty, they have the same floor, but the faster player probably has the higher ceiling. A quarterback with a very strong arm but bad mechanics has a higher ceiling but lower floor than one with good mechanics and questionable arm strength.

In the end, it’s pretty much all guesswork, putting together all the limited clues we have about how a player might perform in college, and trying to determine actual college production.

Thanks for the good questions, everyone, and don’t hesitate to ask more.

Posted under Mail Bag, Recruiting

Double-barrel mailbag this time around. Both questions relate to making decisions on whether to recruit a particular kid or not.

Dave (in Ada, Ohio, my hometown’s Ohioan counterpart) asks:

What’s your take on recruiting a guy because Michigan really wants his teammate?

To start off, it all depends on whether the recruit in question is Michigan caliber. If he is, he can be a depth player even if he never contributes, and can help with recruiting his friend. Of course, this can backfire if you get the kid you didn’t really want and whiff on the one you did want.

Michigan obviously wanted Greg Mathews (he is definitely the best returning receiver on the team), but was their decision for picking him over a similar kid based on the fact that they also wanted his teammate (Lorenzo Edwards in the following class)? Michigan didn’t end up with Edwards, but since Mathews was a very good prospect in his own right, they didn’t regret landing him.

I think most schools, especially at the high-BCS level, will recruit the best players they can. If two players are the same in their mind, teammates (present and future recruiting classes) can be a tiebreaker.

Steven:

should michigan recruit instate kids or focus on other areas. i ask because it seems like we are going after a lot of florida kids. thx.

Well, Steven, Michigan is currently going after kids at programs that they have established relationships with. For this staff, that means programs in Florida, and some in Ohio. They don’t quite have the relationships going in Michigan quite yet.

As time goes on, they will continue to recruit at the programs they know (along with going for other top-level prospects), and try to develop relationships to the in-state high schools. As time goes on, I think the majority of Michigan’s players will come from Ohio (as they pretty much always have), with Texas and Florida providing several players. They will take the top guys out of Michigan, and recruit top prospects from other states as well.

Posted under Mail Bag, Recruiting

Fo’ real this time.

Minnesota WR Bryce McNeal (6-1, 180, 4.46) has given Rich Rodriguez his pledge to become a Michigan Wolverine. “B-Meezy” becomes the eighth member of the 2009 recruiting class. McNeal is an outside receiver with enough wiggle and speed to spend some time in the slot (physically reminiscent of a slightly taller, maybe shiftier, Mario Manningham).

Recruiting Notes
Michigan fans started following Bryce McNeal’s recruitment heavily when he was offered the weekend of St. Patrick’s Day. He originally said he had planned to announce his decision at the Army All-American game, to which he has been invited, but the opportunity at Michigan was too much for him to pass up. McNeal visited Michigan on Monday, March 24th on his way home from the Akron 7-on-7 camp. On March 25th, he told GopherHole that he had a Top-5, but the only schools that he was going to reveal from it were Michigan and Minnesota. At this time, it was assumed that Michigan was his leader, with Minnesota in second. Though he didn’t manage to make it to Ann Arbor for Michigan’s spring game, he had planned to visit the next weekend (which also fell through). McNeal visited for the BBQ at the Big House junior day, and committed. He planned to commit to Clemson next week, but that has since been canceled.

Player Notes
In 2007 he had 33 receptions for 670 yards and 8 touchdowns at Breck high school, where the base offense was a version of the spread that he will be running at Michigan. He has also gotten some attention for track, but it is unknown whether he will try to compete in both sports in college. He is a speedster with good hands, though he will have to add some muscle to compete at the Division-I level. McNeal was invited to attend the Army National Junior Combine in January, where was named to the all-combine first team. Despite this acclaim, he was listed as a three-star player on both sites, but his ranking went up to more reasonable levels after the latest round of re-rankings from each site.

Video

Miscellany
One more interesting fact about McNeal is that his girlfriend, Tayler Hill, is a basketball prospect. McNeal has hinted in his interviews that the two might like to attend school together, but women’s hoops recruiting info is so (oddly) hard to find that I haven’t been able to unearth whether she has interest in Michigan or not. She is a top prospect, and a commitment would help out Michigan’s hoops team greatly. That said, I’d be surprised if one of the top prospects would pick a school that can’t even win the NIT (at least they can get there. ZING

(This was written by Tim. I’m just posting it. I’m basically the secretary – ed.)

Posted under Recruiting

As always, let me know about your school’s commits over the course of the week.

Action since last rankings:
5-9-08 Penn State gains commitment from Stephen Obeng-Agyapong
5-10-08 Ohio State loses commitment from Darrell Givens. Penn State gains commitment from Darrell Givens.
5-11-08 Penn State gains commitment from Derrick Thomas.
5-12-08 Ohio State gains commitment from James Jackson.
5-15-08 Penn state gains commitment from Frank Figueroa. Penn State gains commitment from Eric Shrive.

New Rankings:

Buckeyes lose Darrell Givens, but gain a speedy wideout in James Jackson and remain on top.

Bell will likely end up a high 3-star. Michigan has gone cold for a little while.

Big week for PSU. They snake Darrell Givens from OSU, and pick up two more secondary players, along with two more linemen. Shrive is one of the best OTs in the country. Arcidiacono is underrated, Howle will end up as a high-three star, Figueroa a low three-star.

Every player committed to State thus far is from Michigan. They haven’t gotten any commitments in seemingly forever, and more schools are likely to pass them as time goes on.

Wood is a very good prospect, but all are slightly overrated because of their school of choice (especially Golic).

Keise will probably end up a mid 3-star.

Illinois started fast, but has since stagnated (and lost Melvin Fellows to the Bucks).

Wisconsin has all linemen, all from America’s Dairyland.

Their only commit comes from one of the least important positions on the field. Huzzah!

At least they have some commits. Come on, state of Indiana.

T-11th – Indiana, Purdue (0 commits)

Posted under Recruiting

While most schools have junior days in January and February, Michigan will follow its winter Junior Day with one Saturday.

As the staff started the year, they were behind from having to catch up with 2008 recruiting year. The junior day, a barbecue, should give them a chance to play catch-up, as well as display a family atmosphere about the program. The weather is not expected to be exceptionally warm, but sunny skies should make for good BBQ weather.

Prospects expected to attend include Bryce McNeal, and Pennsylvania DB/WR Corey Brown.

Posted under Recruiting

The Board.

Added:
FL OL Matt Alajajian. He has been offered (info in header).
NC QB Everett Proctor. He would be a backup QB/DB. Michigan might give him the opportunity to start his career as a QB to get him to commit. He is HS teammates with Xavier Nixon.

New Information:
OK RB David Oku. He has trimmed his list to a top 5, still including Michigan (and no longer including OSU or USC).
MN WR Bryce McNeal. Sam Webb in the DetNews.

Removed:
NC DB Devonte Holloman. Committed to Clemson.
MI WR James Jackson. Committed to Ohio State.
CA QB Tate Forcier. Michigan is probably done recruiting him.
PA OT Eric Shrive. THE Pennsylvania State University.

Analysis:
As I said when it happened, James Jackson hurts because he is an instate guy spurning Michigan to go to Ohio State. He loves the school, but never really got a vibe going with the new coaching staff. His location makes it possible for Rodriguez to continue recruiting him. Holloman hurts because it means another year, no 5-star safeties. He had been planning a Michigan visit tomorrow, and it seems as though his commitment may have been to avoid having to go on the visit when he knew he actually wanted to become a Tiger.

Posted under Recruiting

RJ furnishes us with a link, summarizes by giving us this snippet of information:

Sam Webb said this morning that the days of Michigan recruiting players that only play qb. Brandon McGee and a few other dual threats who play other positions are what they are looking for. Tate Forcier and all the other qbs can be pretty much taken off.

I removed all QBs except two categories when Shavodrick Beaver committed to Michigan:

• Guys who could play another position and learn QB for emergency situations.
• Tate Forcier.

It now sounds like Forcier can be removed from that list. However, I think the scope of RJ’s message is a little overextended. For 2009, Michigan is probably done recruiting QBs (unless they are multiple-position guys), but in the future, if there’s a Tate Forcier-type guy, they would take him. So, for this year, it means Forcier is off the board.

Posted under Recruiting

A couple big hits to Michigan’s recruiting efforts, as two of their top prospects are off the board. Holloman is probably a bigger hit than Jackson, as he seemed to be more interested in Michigan than Jackson did, and will be harder to get back on campus to sway his decision (especially since he was supposed to come here this weekend). Jackson had cooled on Michigan over the course of time, but if Rodriguez and co. really want him, they should at least be able to get him back on campus to visit, as he is an instate prospect.

Both prospects will be removed from the next edition of the Recruiting Board. On a side note, I don’t understand how Clemson has consistent recruiting classes that can be described as “kind of awesome” and teams that can be described as “kind of terrible.”

Posted under Recruiting

The board. You may notice it’s been reorganized so the offered prospects are at the top of each table. If I missed anything, let me know in the comments to this post so I can fix it.

Added:
NC DB Terry Shankle. He’s been offered (info in header).

New Information:
TN OT Alex Bullard. Top 6 includes Michigan. Tennessee with the edge currently.
AZ DE Craig Roh. He will play in the ESPN Game.
SC DB Damario Jeffrey. Top 10 does not include Michigan.
OH OT Marcus Hall. His top 6 has changed but still includes Michigan.
IL OG Chris Watt recruiting fluff. No Michigan mention (but no mention of OSU, either). He’s #1 in Illinois.

Etc.:
Freep’s top 5 instaters. Lots of Michigan targets expected for the OSU Nike. Happy 2nd birthday Michigan Football Saturdays.

Posted under Recruiting

Former Lowell QB Keith Nichol has stated that Michigan may his destination following his transfer from the University of Oklahoma. Nichol, a pass-run threat, committed to Michigan State, then rescinded his verbal once John L. Smith was fired as head coach. He ended up a Sooner, but received his scholarship release after two years, when he saw that he would likely not gain any major playing time.

Will Nichol end up at Michigan State? He’s not a great fit for the Spartan offense, which now features the statuesque quarterbacks that Michigan fans were so glad to get rid of. Nichol also spurned the school (and by extension, the new coaching staff) once, so it’s unclear whether he will be accepted with open arms. Still, the current depth chart situation looks perfect for Nichol to come in and take the reins in 2009.

At Michigan, the offensive scheme is more suited to Nichol’s athletic ability. However, he grew up a big Michigan State fan, and who knows if he could see himself playing for the University of Puke? Also, I’m not so sure that Rich Rodriguez and co. would want a player who won’t be able to hit the field until 2009, and even then only has three years of eligibility. Since Justin Feagin will be able to play in 2008, he will have a year of game experience over Nichol, and he has more athletic ability. By the time Nichol is eligible in 2009, Feagin will be but a sophomore, and (at least) two new quarterbacks with 5 years to play 4 will be around.

So what’s the advantage of taking Nichol? It doesn’t seem like the smartest move for Michigan from a football standpoint, and I’ll be surprised if he ends up here.

Posted under Personnel, Recruiting