When I originally previewed the Wisconsin Badgers in the summer, it appeared as though they would be one of the conference’s top teams, especially if their pass defense was able to step forward despite the loss of NFL early-entrant Jack Ikegwuonu. When we spoke to Derek Zetlin this week, we learned that a lot has changed for the Badgers so far this season, but the expectations are still high.

First, let’s take a look at Derek’s list of things that weren’t quite right with the preview:

• Evridge actually won the starting job last year but a hamstring injury allowed Donovan to step in and win the job. He’s also not as immobile as you make it seem.
• I wouldn’t consider Hill a “Fatty” anymore. He’s lost weight and is now elusive more than ever.
• WR Maurice Moore is seeing more snaps than the other backups after Jefferson and Gilreath.
• O’Brien Schofield starts at DE opposite Shaughnessy.
• McFadden starts over Hodge at MLB. Hodge is actually 3rd on the depth chart behind St. Jean because he sucks that much.
• Goins and Brinkley have split time opposite Langford. Jay Valai starts at SS over Pleasant.
• Nortman punts over Debauche and he’s looked good so far.

In addition, some important things have changed since then:

• Lance Smith was kicked off the team prior to the first game for violating the First Offender Program regarding a domestic violence charge from a year ago. He transfered to Memphis.
• Beckum did miss the first 2 games because of a hamstring injury. Evridge threw for 308 yards i that game, granted it was against Marshall. But Graham has really looked great and in my mind will be an NFL TE.
• Kirk Decremer is out for the season with a back injury.
• Henry has been hurt all year, but might be back for the Michigan game.

So it appears that the Badgers have been missing a couple key pieces to the team.

As per usual, the Badgers look to move the ball behind a power run game on the newly-slimmed legs of PJ Hill. There will be lots of between-the-tackles action behind a strong O-line, and a play-action passing game relying mostly on the tight ends.

However, there is a bit of uncertainty due to injury for the Badgers. Hill has been slightly nicked up, and with Lance Smith off the team, backups John Clay and Zach Brown look to play a more prominent role. Unfortunately for the Badgers, Clay also has had some injury issues so far this fall. If Hill is less than 100%, Michigan may be able to stop Wisconsin by focusing on the run game, and forcing Allan Evridge to get it done through the air.

Even if Travis Beckum still isn’t 100%, however, Garrett Graham is also a darn good option from the tight end position. If Beckum is 100%, Wisconsin should be able to do some really good things in the passing game by going to the TEs. The wideouts don’t pose a huge threat on their own, but with a strong running game and two skilled tight ends to take the defense’s focus off the perimeter, there may be a couple plays available to the Badgers.

Defensively, the Badgers have run hot and cold. Until the Fresno State game, they were on a run of starting games slowly, so if Michigan wins the toss, it might be a good idea to take the ball to start out. The secondary is the major point of weakness for Wisconsin, though they have performed somewhat admirably so far (albeit against Fresno State and a pair of tomato cans). With the potential return of Aaron Henry, they could see another step forward in that respect.

The Badgers are doing a good job against the run, but they’ve faced even-less-prolific offenses in that respect. Michigan is also running a different scheme than any of the Badgers’ opponents so far, and they might be able to expose some weaknesses with the zone-read game. Like many traditional power-run teams, the Badgers have a problem with spread offenses, so the Wolverines may be able to exploit that.

Offensively, Michigan should be able to have some success. If they manage to execute like they did against Notre Dame, minus the egregious mistakes (i.e. several thousand fumbles, Nick Sheridan), they should be able to move the ball.

Predictions
Michigan gets its highest scoring output of the year (currently 23 points against Utah)
The defense helps out in that respect, coming away with a turnover that gives Michigan the ball somewhere inside the red zone (or scoring one themselves).
Wisconsin wins, 34-24

Posted under Analysis

Added:
AZ OL Taylor Lewan. Both premium sites have front-page headlines indicating he’s been offered. He’s a teammate of DE Commit Craig Roh.
FL CB Jarvis Byrd. Michigan is showing interest in the Pahokee-an (Pahokeeite?).

New Information:
VA DE Will Hill. Enjoys a Tennessee visit, still plans to visit Michigan before deciding.
SC DE Chris Bonds. The perpetually-injured one now says he’s probably not going to visit Michigan.
FL LB Commit Brandin Hawthorne. He’s still taking other visits. I wonder if the Michigan coaches might discourage that at his official visit this weekend.
FL LB Mike Marry. Michigan is in what appears to be a Top 7 for him. How about a little video?:

MI S Thomas Gordon. Back to deciding this weekend (info in header, the answer is almost always “yes”).
FL CB Mywan Jackson. North Carolina now leads (info in header).

Official Visits this Week:
TX QB Commit Shavodrick Beaver (though that is apparently not the case)
FL LB Soft Commit Brandin Hawthorne
MD RB Tavon Austin
SC OL Quinton Washington

Analysis:
Chris Bonds might be a casualty of 2 DE commits. Michigan’s continued pursuit of o-linemen definitely indicates that they see Anthony LaLota staying on the DL. Michigan definitely still seems to want another CB (in addition to another LB), as their increased interest in Jarvis Byrd seems to indicate. That would fill a need and keep a pipeline open.

Etc.:
MSU picks up a TE transfer. This probably hurts them with Dion Sims. I personally think he wants to go to OSU if he picks football, but the Buckeyes’ class might fill up before he gets a chance to commit there.

Posted under Recruiting

After Saturday night’s offense-only thriller between Fresno State and Toledo, Michigan fans were understandably worried about facing the Rockets in a few weeks in the Big House. In The Glass Bowl, Toledo took a BCS Buster to the wire, before finally falling in two overtimes. This means that the Rockets are legit, right?

Let’s take a look at the logic.
Wisconsin is a good team
Fresno State played a good game against Wisconsin (in Fresno)
Toledo played a good game against Fresno State (in Toledo)
Toledo is a good team.

Of course, early in the season, we don’t know a whole lot about many teams, and the Badgers, Bulldogs, and Rockets are not exceptions. Is there a chance that out assumptions may be just a little bit off?

Maybe the Badgers really aren’t very good. Sure, it’s not the most likely case, but there’s a possibility. Maybe the Bulldogs aren’t very good, either. And for that matter, the Rockets would be at the end of that food chain.

Resumes? Resumes.
Toledo is 1-2, having been blown out by Arizona (a team in the middle of a BCS conference, not unlike what Michigan expects to be this year), paid it forward to Eastern Michigan (you might not recognize that name without its standard prefix: perennially awful), and had the close loss to Fresno State.

Fresno is 2-1, with a 17-point win over Rutgers, which looks less like the Rutgers of the last 3 years than that of the previous 136. Their other win is over Toledo, in a close (to the tune of a missed-2-pointer-in-overtime) road game. The loss comes at home to Wisconsin, in a game that should probably have been less close than the 3-point margin would indicate, given a ridiculously horrid call that went against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 3-0, with wins over Akron, Marshall, and Fresno State. Assuming Fresno State is worthy of its ESPN-anointed BCS Buster status, the other two games should be of slightly more relevance. The Badgers let Akron get within 17-10 before saying “o ya were da badgers” and blowing out the Zips. They also let Marshall build up a 14-0 lead before saying “o ya were da badgers” and blowing out the Herd. The slow start didn’t happen in Wisconsin’s only road game thus far, as they took a 10-0 lead into halftime and Fresno made it a game in the third quarter.

Yahoo’s Dr. Saturday nee Matt Hinton of SMQ, even said that Fresno’s defense is pretty bad. Wisconsin put up 13 points on said defense. So, unless Arizona is way, way better than expected, maybe none of these teams are that impressive at all. Of course coming off the bye week, the Badgers should be focused and prepared to take on Michigan, but hey, why not try to be a bit of an optimist going into a game that it appears Michigan really doesn’t expect to win?

Posted under Analysis

The 2009 recruiting class looks more and more every day like it is pretty much wrapped up, except for perhaps a couple more prospects that may end up in maize and blue.

The 2010 Varsity Blue recruiting board does exist, and I’ve been keeping up with it to some degree. My original plan was to have a grand unveiling either the day after Signing Day 2009, or whenever Michigan gets its first commit for the class of 2010.

My question for you is: would you like me to wait that long, or release the board into the wild sometime sooner? I still wouldn’t likely give weekly recruiting updates, but they’d certainly come at some interval.

As of now, the 2010 recruiting primer is the largest source of 2010 material I’ve published (Genuinely Sarcastic has a 2010 board of their own going). Would you like more, or should I hold off a little longer on the creepiness of stalking high school juniors?

Posted under Recruiting

In honor of this weekend’s Maize Out game against the Wisconsin Badgers, Varsity Blue shall be known as “Varsity Maize” for this entire week. You may have noticed our RAD NEW BANNER at the top of your screen.

We here at Varsity Maize encourage everyone who is attending Saturday’s game against the Badgers to wear maize clothing, and be loud in support of the Michigan Wolverines in their Big Ten kickoff.

Posted under Analysis, Blog News

UPDATE: DeWayne Peace stats added for this week.
As you can see, this feature is getting more and more polished as the weeks go by. Next week, it’ll look just a little bit better.

CA QB Tate Forcier
This Week: Scripps Ranch v. West Hills. Scripps wins 17-10.

Posted under Recruiting

With the Michigan Wolverines not playing this week, there is little to talk about, so let’s take a moment to revisit my preseason predictions. Of course, I said very few binding things before the season, so we’ll adjust preseason expectations for the remainder of the season, and see where I went wrong at the beginning of the year.

Looking Back:

Utah
The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah’s will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it’s strength against strength as Michigan’s potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah’s D may score once or twice itself.
Prediction: Tossup

Utah’s D didn’t score, but Michigan’s defense was not as strong as expected. I thought Michigan’s offense wouldn’t be very good, but not as bad as it proved to be.

Miami
Miami’s linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn’t come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines’ D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win.
Prediction: Victory

Michigan did indeed pull off a victory on the strength of their defense. The offense looked like it was getting a rhythm going early in the game, but the flow was halted, and the offensive output was far from optimal.

Notre Dame
2008 is Michigan’s turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame’s effort from last year. Jon Tenuta’s blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn’t be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful ’05 and ’06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents… note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense?
Prediction: Tossup

Michigan’s inability to hold onto the ball was the main disappointment here. Jimmy Clausen was indeed improved, enough to capitalize on several short fields afforded by the likes of Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw. Michigan was finally able to get an offensive rhythm going, however, though it didn’t show up on the scoreboard because of all the turnovers.

Looking Forward
Since these games haven’t happened yet, my predictions haven’t become relevant, though I will leave in the Wisconsin prognostication, as we shall see soon enough how close it is to reality.

Wisconsin
The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW’s pass defense doesn’t improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan’s D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn’t prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down.
Prediction: Loss

Perhaps Michigan’s second-biggest disappointment from the Notre Dame game was slowing down the power running attack that the Irish implemented. Wisconsin is the posterboy for that offensive scheme, so the Badgers should have some success, unless the UM linebacking corps can rebound in tremendous fashion. Offensively, the Wolverines started putting it together last week, though Wisconsin’s defense is likely to be more formidable than the Irish were. Still, I have enough confidence to upgrade this one ever-so-slightly to tossup.

Illinois
Prediction: Tossup

I still think Illinois is in a slight rebuilding year after losing their best player on each side of the ball. Juice has looked erratic at times, and good at others. This should be a chance for Michigan to get a statement win.

Toledo
Prediction: Victory

Michigan is undefeated against the MAC, and don’t let the records fool you: Miami was a better team than Toledo is.

Penn State
Prediction: Loss

When I first wrote the preview, I thought Penn State was a probable loss on the verge of a tossup. After seeing both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines in action this season, it’s looking more like a definite loss on the verge of a blowout.

Michigan State
Prediction: Tossup

I still have yet to be impressed by the Spartans. Their loss was to a Cal team that got run off the field by a downright bad Maryland squad, and Javon Ringer is the only MSU player who has looked impressive thus far.

Purdue
Prediction: Victory

Purdue was competitive against Oregon, so maybe I should downgrade this one to a tossup. Still, the Boilers’ offense wasn’t particularly impressive agaisnt a good defense, so the jury is still out on Purdue.

Minnesota
Prediction: Victory

Minnesota has looked better than expected, but the Gophers have a long way to go (and the schedule will only get tougher from here).

Northwestern
Prediction: Victory

After seeing NU play this year, I will downgrade them from a victory to a tossup, though with the game in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan offense presumably continuing its progression, MIchigan still might be able to come away with a win.

Ohio State
Prediction: Pain

Ohio State certainly looked beatable against USC. However, if Beanie Wells plays two games this year, they will be the contests against Young
stown State and Michigan. With Wells in the backfield, and Pryor presumably playing a bigger role as the year goes on, Ohio State is a cut above Michigan. The weak OSU offensive line provides a glimmer of hope, but the downgrade on this game goes only to “defeat.”

And…?
If my preseason prediction of a 7-5 season is to come true, Michigan needs to finish the year with a 6-3 record. With losses coming against Penn State and Ohio State, and wins against Toledo and Minnesota, the Wolverines will have to go 4-1 against a slate of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern. The best I see Michigan going is 3-2, and even that might be something of a stretch.

Posted under Analysis

With defensive end a major need for the 2008 and 2009 recruiting classes, Michigan finally received a commitment at the position last week, and when it rains, it pours. Craig Roh, a standout at Chaparral High in Scottsdale, Arizona, has pledged his word to sign with Michigan in February. Roh (6-5, 230, 4.6) becomes the 18th Michigan commitment for 2009.

Player Notes
Roh has great measurements for the defensive end position, though he will likely need to add weight with Mike Barwis to become a fixture along the defensive front. Roh is a high-energy player with excellent speed for a lineman. He was on Jim Stefani’s early list of prospects that Michigan should pursue. He is a tweener-type, though not the bad kind: he can play either a pass-rushing or run-stopping role from the defensive end spot, though if he specializes in one or the other, he could become a more intimidating player. It is expected that he will stay at the weakside (pass-rushing) end position. Roh has been selected for the ESPNU All-Star game, which certainly puts him among the top prospects in the country. He is considered a 4-star to both Rivals and Scout.

Recruiting Notes
Roh is originally from Michigan, and still has family in the Mitten. Roh’s family takes vacations in West Michigan each summer, so he is familiar with the area. He was extended a scholarship offer early in the recruiting cycle (though perhaps not early enough for some who follow recruiting to be satisfied), and expressed a lot of interest in Michigan. He visited Ann Arbor multiple times in a single week around the Fourth of July, the second visit to ensure he could meet with headman Rich Rodriguez. The visit did not result in a commitment, but not too long after, he narrowed to a top five list of several West Coast schools and Michigan. Roh then set up an official visit to Ann Arbor for the Wolverines’ opening tilt against Utah. Following the visit, Craig gave the standard “I was blown away” lip service, but indicated that he would not commit to Michigan until after giving the USC Trojans a chance. His official visit to the Coliseum for Southern Cal’s win against Ohio State never came to fruition, and instead he took an unofficial visit to Arizona State last weekend. On Tuesday, he announced that he would make his college choice on Tom Luginbill’s ESPNU show Thursday night. When it came time to reveal his decision, Craig picked the Michigan Wolverines.

Posted under Recruiting

I’ve decided this will be a semi-regular feature. I really couldn’t think of anything for Miami but there’s plenty in this game.

The Weather is Straight out of The Odyssey. You know how Odysseus and a few of his men get stuck in Cyclops’s cave? They took some timber, sharpened an end and blinded Cyclops and then escaped by lashing themselves to the undersides of his sheep, so they slip out without being detected. Well, unfortunately for them Cyclops was Poseidon’s son, and Poseidon controls the weather on the ocean. Poseidon was angry that they did that to his son and whipped up a storm that sunk every boat save Odysseus’ and knocked his off into the edge of the world. I’m not sure what giant creature Rich Rodriguez blinded, but whichever deity controls the weather in South Bend sure as hell was pissed. The kicker is that this malevolent deity waited until its team was up by double digits before unleashing its wrath. Crafty…

Jimmy Clausen is Portia from The Merchant of Venice. Portia is definitely the hero of this play, and Jimmy Clausen was arguably the hero of the game on Saturday. I would personally say Michigan’s slippery hands were the hero, but if you want a person, Jimmy will do. The short version of this joke is that Portia is a women who dresses up as a man to save the day. I mean, have you seen Clausen’s hair? The longer story, is that she went to save Antonio who was in danger of losing a pound of flesh as he guaranteed his friend’s, Basonio, loan. Basonio is inept at his job, but still manages to land Portia, a wealthy heiress, by performing an arbitrary task. Weis, on the same token, is an inept coach who managed to land a very highly regarded (albeit feminine) recruit, most likely by consuming two whole turkeys. I’m not sure who Antonio would be. Maybe Jack Swarbick, Notre Dame’s Atheltic Director. The main components of Antonio are loyalty, a basic level of competancy and a strong hatred of jews, so maybe? I don’t judge.

Finally…

The Game in General is The Jungle by Upton Sinclair. The main character, Jurgis Rudkus, is a Lithuanian immigrant fresh off the boat (well, that plus the trip to Chicago). He has an indomitable love for the American dream of pulling himself up by the bootstraps. Jurgis could be Michigan in general. Stepping bravely into new uncharted lands with a firm belief that, despite toil and tribulations, there is a higher goal that will inevitably be achieved. Early on in the novel, tragedy strikes quickly in the form of unscrupulous guests taking advantage of a wedding party and even taking what few donations were given leaving the family with nothing. Similarly, right out of the gate some players coughed up the ball and Michigan was left with a 21 point debt.

Although the main point of The Jungle may have been an evisceration of capitalism in favor of socialism (which some may agree with), the main thing I remember about the novel is a couple good things happening to Jurgis and then some massive tragedy coming out of left field. For example:

1. Jurgis gets a job
2. The women of the family were able to scrounge and make a nice meal
3. Jurgis‘ son drowns in the mud while Jurgis is working.

In the game, most of what happened was good: McGuffie looked dominant, Threet looked acceptable++ and the receivers were making plays, but then there would be a hope killing turnover. Eventually it was too much for Jurgis (Rodriguez) to deal with and he just gave up (put in Sheridan*). The last hundred or so pages are basically socialist propaganda which, if you’ve been over to Wolverine Liberation Army since the game, you got as well. Sometimes these are just eerie…

*Reports are Threet came out with cramps, which seems like a logical answer.

Posted under Analysis

As always, the board.

Moved to Committed:
NJ DE Anthony LaLota. Woo! A defensive end!

Added:
FL LB Mike Marry. Michigan shall make his next cut (info in header).

New Information:
OK RB David Oku. Never mind about deciding this week: he has delayed his announcement yet again.
FL QB Denard Robinson. Still feelin’ Michigan (info in header) despite the multiple QB commits.
SC OL Quinton Washington. Official visit for Wisconsin game, and Michigan looks surprisingly strong in his recruitiment (Sam Webb audio).
AZ DE Craig Roh. Sam Webb thinks he’ll end up at Michigan, unless Rick Neuheisel is particularly slimy (audio).
SC DE Sam Montgomery. Has decided which 5 schools to visit, including Michigan.
MI S Thomas Gordon. Announcing in a couple weeks, and MIchigan looks good (audio same as above).

Etc.:
2008 MI DE Nick Perry qualified on time, and is now at USC. It was thought that if he failed t qualify, Michigan might be back in the picture for him.
2008 NJ LB Marcus Witherspoon ended up at Rutgers, where he will be eligible to play this year.
FL DB Corey Addison. He is thinking about an official visit to Michigan. His commitment to SoCar will leave him off the board for now, but keep him in mind.

Analysis:
Michigan finally grabs a defensive end. If they can grab Craig Roh, a huge weakness will be accounted for at the position.

As of now, I expect to see Roh, Will Campbell, Thomas Gordon, and maybe another guy or two to finish out the class.

Posted under Recruiting