Moved from Committed:

Posted under Recruiting

Some of our unfiltered thoughts from the game:

• Tim and I both agreed that Threet looked much better than Sheridan again. He made better reads, better throws (for the most part), and even looked more authoritative on his runs. With a repertoire of two half games for each, I think Steven Threet should be the starting quarterback. I wasn’t watching the broadcast, so I don’t know why they were rotating; I think it was to give each guy a shot against the same team (again).
• Mark Ortmann came out in the third quarter, but the injury was treated with an icepack on his elbow. It didn’t appear to be too serious, and God help us all if it is.
• The gameplan seemed to be almost the exact same as last week. Even the first play was the exact same (of course, Odoms had much more success on it today than he did against Utah). Are the coaches holding back tricks for later games, and keeping it vanilla (a la DeBord), or is this everything they can do with quarterbacks who can barely throw and run?
• Shaw was running well, then disappeared. Anyone watch the broadcast and hear why that might have been? In Shaw’s stead, McGuffie was the best running back. I’m surprised we didn’t see more of Grady when they ran from the I-form. Minor was, well, Minor. That is neither good nor bad.
• The fans faded during the course of the game. When the team gave them something to be really excited about, they responded. However, the fan momentum wasn’t really maintained, and the third quarter was pretty quiet.
• The half-rolls that Miami was using on offense was pretty effective (once they went to it – nice adjustment by the Miami coaching staff). It prevents a fairly dominant D-line from getting to the quarterback. We’ll see if other teams go to that sort of strategy, and how Shafer reacts.
• This offense hasn’t been making too many big plays (aside from a couple of runs getting blown open and the Odoms screen), but when you watch them play, it is clear that they have big-play potential, and are just a slight improvement in execution away from making something very interesting happen. As the experience across the board improves (especially if Zirbel and Ortmann can get/stay healthy), and more of the playbook is installed, this offense may be adequate down the road.
• The offensive line was again a weak point. We can hope for improvement and the return of Zirbel, and they could be good (enough) by the end of the year.
• Obi Ezeh was again a badass in terms of making tackles, and seemed to defend the pass better this week (albeit against worse competition). He could be a really special player down the line.

Anything to add?

Posted under Analysis

Action since last rankings:
8-24-08 Illinois gains commitment from Darryl Lee.
8-31-08 Ohio state gains commitment from Jamaal Berry. Michigan gains commitment from Tate Forcier.
9-2-08 Iowa gains commitment from Bret Van Sloten.

The rich get richer as OSU and Michigan pick up a key piece each. Then the slightly-less-rich get poorer as William Campbell defects. For next week, I’ll probably take a closer look at re-ranking the teams (Michigan out of second?), but I just didn’t have the time this week.

New Rankings:

Posted under Recruiting

Conflicting sources reports that Michigan has lost a commitment from william Campbell. Campbell is the highest-rated recruit in the Wolverines’ class of 2009, but Michigan has always known that he was planning to take official visits to other schools.

If that is the case, then how could he “open up” his recruitment? It seems that to make himself any more open, he’d practically have to state that Michigan is out of the picture for him. Otherwise (as it has been all along), it would seem that he is a soft commit, with Michigan merely a leader among an elite group of schools.

Insert Thor pic here for mega-lolz.

Posted under Recruiting

This is Tim’s conversation with Dan Kukla of The Miami Student previewing the upcoming game. Enjoy:

 

 Previewing the Miami RedHawks [19:22m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Posted under Blogcast

The Board lives here. I was going to hold this update a little longer, but the post is filling up, and there is a ton of content to roll out over the next few days. Enjoy.

Moved to Committed:
FL RB Vincent Smith, FL RB Brandin Hawthorne. Commitment article on the pair.
CA QB Tate Forcier. Freep commit article.

Added:
NJ DB Nyshier Oliver. Tennessee decommit now considering Michigan, among others.

New Information:
FL TE Orson Charles. Georgia might not have a spot for him anymore.
VA OL Morgan Moses. He may not qualify out of high school, and could be headed to prep school for a year.
IL DE Craig Drummond. Nursing an ankle injury.
NC LB Hawatha Bell. Plans on taking a Michigan official visit.
MD LB Jelani Jenkins. Some fluff. Also, he might want to major in sports medicine (and Michigan has a very good program in this).

Removed:
FL LB Frankie Telfort. Michigan is out of his top (final) six.
FL RB Jaamal Berry. He’s finally done what we’ve been waiting for so long and verballed to Ohio State.

Etc.:
FL slot commit Jeremy Gallon. Fluff from the local paper.
First official 2010 offer. Chris Dunkley isn’t the only one that was sent out today, I assume. People like Devin Garndner, Ricardo Miller, and Marvin Robinson almost definitely received them as well. The board isn’t going live soon, but keep this stuff in mind.

Analysis:
Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne had pretty much been penciled in as commits to this class, even before the official announcement. The commitment from Forcier, however, was surprising, if only in the timing. He fills the void left by Kevin Newsome, and Michigan is back to being locked down on the quarterback front. From here, the next possible commit is from a DE (perhaps Craig Roh, who visited this weekend?), and then an OL or two. I’ve emotionally detached myself from Darius Winston, as I don’t think he will select Michigan on Friday (surprise us all, Jay Hopson!).

Posted under Recruiting

In yesterday’s Unverified Voracity, Brian mentioned that the mass media will com up with a message that they want to write about, and then write their article about that whether or not the circumstances are true. For example, he said that the media would assume that fans would criticize Rodriguez’s playcalling, and wrote their articles regardless of whether that was true or not.

Another annoying instance of this I’ve run across is the assumption that Michigan fans think the sky is falling down. With an upset against a far inferior team, among the worst that Michigan will play this year, fans clearly think that Michigan will struggle to win a single game this year…

…except that’s not at all what Michigan fans are saying. Those who have a clue (which is, thankfully and surprisingly, a majority) realize that Utah might be the best non-Ohio State team (and certainly among them) that the Wolverines will face in 2008, and have set expectations accordingly. Sure, people are disappointed in the play of the offense, but nearly everyone I’ve talked to has been encouraged by the play of the defense in the second half, and thinks that the offense can only improve with Steven Threet the man in charge. The most negative article I’ve seen was Brian’s game column.

So, mass media, don’t make assumptions about fan perception and write your articles from your assumptions: you might want to take into account, you know, the truth.

Posted under Analysis

Having taken advantage of one of the more “liberal” offerings of LS&A, political science major with a minor in philosophy to be specific, I constantly try to validate the classes I took by using what I learned in “real life.” So… a college football blog isn’t quite “real life,” but it’s close, so I’m going to break down portions of the Utah game using a wide swath of Western culture (no offense to Eastern culture, but I didn’t get much of it).

• Nick Sheridan is Hector of Troy: Their histories are a stretch to match, although one was a son of king, the other a son of coach. They were both intelligent, gritty and determined, and somewhat respected. Hector died fighting a battle he had no chance of winning, a one on one duel against Achilles. Sheridan, apparently, had no chance of being an effective quarterback. The Utes did not proceed to drag Nick Sheridan back to their encampment behind their chariot, but they embarrassed him all the same.
• The Offensivee Line is the (Spartans at Thermopylae)^-1: Oh, inverted, uh metaphor. I think the weird part was that the offensive line was as effective standing still trying to draw an offsides call as they were trying to block. While the Spartans valiantly stood at the pass and held off the oncoming horde to give the Greeks enough time to prepare a their Navy for a decisive victory, the Michigan offensive line could not hold off the Utes for [insert QB] to get to the mesh point with [insert RB]². (Note: just because Michigan State fans have latched on to the movie 300 does not mean Michigan fans have to ignore the city-state)
• The Second Half Defense is the French Army under Napoleon pre-1812: The Napoleonic army was very modern for it’s time and had very well trained soldiers that used rather advanced tactics. He was rarely defeated in battle and wreaked havoc on his enemies. Scott Shafer is taller and every bit the tactician. The defense in the second half played lights out and looked to really confuse the Utah offense. Many times faking retreat and flanking hard.
• The First Half Defense is All Other French Armies: The Utes marched right through Michigan’s Arc de Triomphe at will.
• Stephen Threet is Lennie from Of Mice and Men: I’m not calling Threet mildly mentally disabled. From everything I have heard he is an exceptionally intelligent, nice guy, but bear with me here. Lennie was fairly lovable. George always talked about leaving him on his own, but never could bear to abandon the adorable lurch. Something about Lennie kept George around. Lennie was also fairly effective at his various jobs, but didn’t have the higher level subtleties down. Seems fairly accurate right? Now, there’s an obvious difference in scale, but Lennie accidentally choked a women to death and his best friend ended up killing him, while Threet accidentally overthrew some passes and ended up losing the game (Note: he is not solely responsible for losing the game, but he did not win, so therefore…)

So there you have it. Hopefully this isn’t an example of Michigan arrogance…

If enough people like this, it could become a weekly thing.

Posted under Analysis

Though many believed Kevin Newsome would be the only top-flight quarterback Michigan had a shot at in 2009, California QB Robert “Tate” Forcier has committed to Michigan, filling the void left by the decommitment of Newsome. Forcier (6-1, 190, 4.63) is the younger brother of former UM (now Stanford) QB Jason Forcier. For the most inside of all the information on Tate, check out his family site. Forcier plans to enroll in January at Michigan.

Player Notes
Forcier is a pass-run quarterback who is a much better fit for this UM system than his brother was for the old one. Forcier switched schools entering his sophomore season to avoid starting over his older brother Chris (now at UCLA). Tate is a pass-first dual threat quarterback. For those worrying about a lack of speed, it may be comforting to know that he had more rushing yards than Kevin Newsome as a junior. Tate is a little bit short (around 6-1), and his arm strength is not elite. However, he is fairly fast (faster than his former Wolverine brother), and his arm is very accurate. For the Scouts, Inc. evaluation of Tate, check out his site. One thing to keep in mind about Tate is that he has had a private QB tutor for much of his football-playing career, so his floor is very high, but he may be close to his ceiling as a passer.

Recruiting Notes
Like his older brother before him, Tate Forcier grew up a fan of the Michigan Wolverines. This gave Rich Rodriguez and company a leg up in his recruitment. However, with a family member leaving the program just a couple of years before Tate would enroll, it was unclear whther there would be hard feelings towards the Michigan program. Forcier was offered early in the process, when Russell Shepard and Kevin Newsome were the only other signal-callers holding offers from Rich Rodriguez. Speaking of offers… Tate posted all of his online (and it was really annoying to Google him every day and see that another hack columnist around the country had noticed). However, Tate said he wouldn’t start trimming his list until the Pryor situation was resolved. When Pryor picked against Michigan, many thought Pryor’s other “finalists,” Penn State and Michigan, were among Forcier’s top schools (along with Oregon). Before Kevin Newsome committed, he and Tate talked on Myspace about attending school together. When Shavodrick Beaver also gave his word to become a Wolverine, Tate was not to be dissuaded, still speaking highly of Michigan. When Kevin Newsome decommitted, Forcier was almost immediately in town for an official visit to the Utah game. Shortly after, Forcier made the decision to pull the trigger and commit to Michigan.

Video

Junior year part 1

Junior year part 2

Posted under Recruiting

QB Comparison:

Though Threet’s stats are worse than Sheridan’s, most people who watched the game would agree that Threet looked to be the better of the two QBs in this game (this is like saying “the less painful way to get hit in the nuts with a baseball bat”). There are several factors that account for this.

• After the first scoring drive, Sheridan went from competent (started the gane 11/13) to sucky (went 0/6 the rest of the way).
• Nick Sheridan threw an ugly interception to close out the half that ultimately ended up deciding the game. He also had an interception wiped out due to a pass interference call.
• Sheridan tried to rip a ball out of McGuffie’s hands after he had already given it away, resulting in a lost fumble.
• Threet’s attempts all came after the ground game was abandoned due to both ineffectiveness and a need to slow down the clock.
• Threet’s touchdown pass was prettier.
• The offense was more effective with Threet in the game.
• Threet seemed to be more poised than Sheridan (oh god, Clausen comparisons ahoy).
• The offense just seemed to be clicking a little more (which is to say: at all) under Threet’s guidance.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steven Threet as the starting QB next week, and I think deservedly so. however, Miami’s defense is not as good as Utah’s, so unless we see major improvement against the RedHawks, the offense could remain ugly all year. There were likely some first game jitters playing a role in the poor QB play as well, so don’t expect anything this bad again, but don’t expect to see Threet or Sheridan threaten for All-conference honors, either.

Rushing Comparison:

Ugly. I think that although the running backs had a pretty bad day, much of the blame falls on the offensive line. The backfield was collapsed on most plays, meaning that the runners had to struggle just to get back to the line of scrimmage most of the time. Brandon Minor had one good looking run, but also a crippling fumble.

Once the offensive line gets a little more used to game shape, and starts playing against less talented D-lines, hopefully they can gel a bit and become more successful. Failing that, we can pray for a midseason return from Corey Zirbel that suddenly makes the line awesome.

Michigan’s 36 yards finished 99th out of the 105 D-1A teams that have played so far this season, tied with Utah.

Defense by Half:
Utah’s total offense in the first half: 303 yards.
Utah’s total offense in the second half: 38 yards.

As Lloyd said (erroneously) after the 2005 loss to Notre Dame: “We may have lost a game, but found a defense.”

After the halftime break, the players realized that the 2008 season started at 3:30 Saturday, and even if they were going to show up a couple hours late, they would just make up for it with an extra-special effor
t in the second half.

I really do believe that Utah has one of the best offenses Michigan will face this year, and certainly among the most balanced. In the second half, they managed to shut that offense down. If anything, I’m disappointed that the game was lost, but I think the defensive improvement over the course of the game is a source of optimism going forward.

Helping the Wolverines
Of course, Utah’s mistakes were a big part of why Michigan managed to keep this game as close as it was. Utah amassed an amazing 137 yards worth of penalties in the game. This makes them the second-in-command for Mythical Penatly-Committing National Champion, behind Texas Tech.

Another note about Utah helping Michigan (though this is also something the defense and special teams earned):
Michigan’s average starting field position: their own 30.9 yard line.
Average starting field position on scoring drives: Utah’s 35 yard line.
The only scoring drive that didn’t begin in Utah territory was the field goal, and even that series began on the 50.

The Incredible Frozen Offensive Line
So, uh what was with the plays where the offensive line didn’t move?

There are two theories:

• It was just a trick play.
• Michigan’s center was trying to catch the Utes offsides.

I believe, at least partially, in theory number 2, since the second time Michigan ran this play, the referees seemed to miss an egregious offsides penalty by Utah’s entire defensive line. It could also be a trick play, but it seems a little counter intuitive to:

1. Trick the defensive line into not rushing.
2. Roll out, away from a presumably non-rushing defensive line.
3. Throw a fade route, designed to hope that the DB doesn’t notice the play has started, when he isn’t really watching the O-line for the beginning of the play anyway.

If anyone else has further insights about this, by al means, speak up.

For this week’s Inside the Play, I’ll be breaking down the Nick Sheridan touchdown pass to Michael Shaw.

Posted under Analysis