Offense
Defense
Special Teams
Recruiting Prospectus

Now that we’ve seen what I think of each individual unit, and each team as a whole, it’s time to make some predictions about how I think it will all come together.

Early in the year, the offense will have to rely on the defense to help them out a lot. Especially with Terrance Robinson missing at least a couple weeks at a key position in the Michigan offense (both in terms of use and depth), Terrance Taylor will have to lead the defensive line to dominance, and Morgan Trent and Donovan Warren will have to play like the big Ten’s top corner duo.

Michigan is one of the hardest teams in the country to make predictions for, because nobody truly knows what to expect, not even rich Rodriguez’s coaching staff. I do think that a lot of the pessimism in press conferences is a bit of misdirection, but anyone expecting the Wolverines to run the table might need to go for a reality check.

Predictions!
Utah
The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah’s will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it’s strength against strength as Michigan’s potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah’s D may score once or twice itself.
Prediction: Tossup

Miami
Miami’s linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn’t come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines’ D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win.
Prediction: Victory

Notre Dame
2008 is Michigan’s turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame’s effort from last year. Jon Tenuta’s blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn’t be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful ’05 and ’06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents… note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense?
Prediction: Tossup

Wisconsin
The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW’s pass defense doesn’t improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan’s D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn’t prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down.
Prediction: Loss

Illinois
I’m not as high on the Illini as many people are after their breakout 2007 season. They lost their two best players, and although Juice Williams improved dramatically, he still completed only 57.3% of his passes, and with the threat of Rashard Mendenhall gone, it will be tougher for him to both run and pass. Arrelius Benn, however, will be a big help catching passes and making things happen. On defense, the Illini are doing a bit of rebuilding yet again, with J Leman gone. However, the talent to replace him is there.
Prediction: Tossup

Toledo
The Rockets had a fairly prolific offense last year, and look to continue that trend with a trio of quarterbacks who have game experience. The rushing attack will drop off quite a bit, however. On defense, the Rockets might not have the talent to stop the Michigan offense, especially if they can get a bit of momentum going in the middle of the year.
Prediction: Victory

Penn State
Though Michigan has owned Penn State in recent years, don’t expect that trend to continue. Penn State is equally transitional, but the Nitanny Lions retun much of a strong line, and their personnel ran the spread a few years ago with Michael Robinson at the helm. Whil Penn State lacks a true offensive leader like Robinson, they shouldn’t drop off too much. On defense, the Lions are a little weaker than recent years, with a relatively green linebacking corps and a group of tackles decimated by offseason attrition. However, Michigan’s inexperience on offense will likely outweigh Penn State’s on defense.
Prediction: Loss

Michigan State
Like Illinois, I’m not buying into much of the national hype on the Spartans. Returning a starting QB isn’t as positive if he’s more liability than asset. Javon Ringer is the only truly great player on this offense (though his “thunder” counterpart, Jehuu Caulcrick, is gone), and Hoyer’s top two targets now ply their trade in the NFL. On defense, MSU lost their SackMaster, several pieces from an already suspect secondary, and linebacker Kaleb Thornhill. However, there is reason to be excited about another linebacker, the youngster Greg Jones.
Prediction: Tossup

Purdue
The Purdue game might be one of the most important of the year for Michigan. I’m not joking. If they roll into this game at 4-4 (as I’m predicting), a win would put Michigan in good position to get to a bowl game for the 35th straight year. A loss, however, and they have to hope that they get in at 6-6. The Purdue offense has consistently sputtered against decent opponents, and Michigan’s defense this year is expected to be one of the best in the nation, especially as the youth gets worked out over the course of the year. On defense, Purdue looks fairly dire, with several players moving around to try to replace impact guys from last year. Michigan’s offense won’t be prolific, but should be able to take advantage of a weak defensive unit.
Prediction: Victory

Minnesota
Unless Tim Brewster ignites a Zook-ian turnaround in his Gopher squad, they should be at or near the bottom of the Big Ten standings by the time this game rolls around. I would have liked to see a scrimmage between Minnesota’s defense and Notre Dame’s offense last year to see which was more incompetent. The Gophers can’t be much worse this year, but they probably won’t be heaps better, either. Minnesota’s offense was decent last year, but it would still take a big leap to be successful against top-tier defenses, one of which Michigan looks to have.
Prediction: Victory

Northwestern
Northwestern blogger Lake the Pos
ts is trying to generate buzz around this edition of the Wildcats, but I don’t see them making a leap towards the top of the conference. They will be a middle-of-the-pack team (and Northwestern fans should remember that not too long ago, they would have been begging for that). I see Michigan as a middling conference team as well, but a team that looks similar to Northwestern with vastly more talent, except at the QB position.
Prediction: Victory

Ohio State
The most complete team in the country, on their own home field.
Prediction: Pain

All in all, it looks to be a 7-5 regular season for Michigan. Of course, they could come out against Utah looking either much stronger or much weaker than expected, which would throw all these predictions off. However, a rebuilding year in 2008 should be expected, with 2009 being a return to the top of the conference standings, before the Wolverines start making national noise around 2010.

Of course, now that everything is worked out for the 2008 season, what can we look forward to in recruiting for 2009 and 2010?

Posted under Analysis

September 1st is the first day that juniors can be officially offered. With much of Michigan’s 2009 class already committed, we can start looking forward to the 2010 recruiting year. Let’s take a look at some potential prospects for the Wolverines.

QB:
With two one already committed for 2009, Rodriguez would probably like to take one dual-threat player in this class, though he can hold out for a top-flight one. Devin Gardner (Inkster, reports an offer) and Robert Bolden (OLSM) are a couple of true dual-threat types who are a little closer to home. Florida’s Stephen Morris (Miami Pace) camped at Michigan in 2010, where he was impressive. Jake Heaps (Skyline HS in Washington) will likely end up the top player in the class of 2010, and is more of an athletic passer than an athlete who happens to chuck the ball.

RB:
Michigan could use 1 or 2 RBs in this class. Spencer Ware from Cincinnati may be the best athlete in the class of 2010, and he is capable of playing QB or RB at the next level. Lache Seastrunk from Texas is a speedster, but will likely end up in Austin or Baton Rouge. Keeshawn Maxwell from Auburndale in Florida is another potential target. Austin White from Livonia Stevenson is close to home and a darn good player as well. Nick Hill from Chelsea is a less highly-regarded prospect.

WR:
Michigan is taking several thousand slots in the past couple classes, so one should be plenty in 2010. An outside receiver (or maybe two) will be signed as well. Jeremy Jackson from Huron High (son of Michigan RB coach Fred Jackson) is likely a top target, but he is also interested in several southern schools. Along with Jackson, Florida’s Chris Dunkley has reportedly been offered. Dennis Hall from Pahokee (FL) is a former teammate of Martavious Odoms, and could be a slot-dot type. Alvin Hall from Trotwood-Madison could be an outside target as well.

TE:
Ricardo Miller is a prospect from Orlando who could end up at WR or TE – and he is liking the Wolverines early in the process. After likely taking a year off from TE recruiting in 2009, Michigan will probably hop back on board with an athletic jumbo-receiver. CJ Fiedorowicz from Johnsburg, IL is one heck of an athletic TE prospect, and he has great size too, at 6-6+. Greg Gainey from Trotwood-Madison could be a target as well.

OL:
Michigan has gotten a few solid OL prospects so far, but no top-flight guys. That could be fixed in 2010 if they land a player like Seantrel Henderson from Minnesota (Cretin-Derham Hall). Matt James from Cincinnati could be a top target as well. Illinois’s Christian Lombard could end up as the second highest rated OT in the class (behind Henderson) and he likes the Wolverines early, camping in summer ’08. Shawn Kamm from Saginaw Nouvel could be a sleeper choice as well.

DT:
Michigan has gotten a couple of DTs committed in this class (including one great one in Campbell), but they could use good one in the next class. Doral Willis from Pahokee will be among the top DTs in 2010, and Michigan is well on its way to establishing a pipeline to the muck. Jordan Sanders from Rochester Adams (MI) is a little bit closer to home, though not as highly-regarded.

DE:
Michigan needs a top-flight DE in this class, as 2009 looks to give them some good but not great players. Fortunately, William Gholston is right in their backyard, at Detroit Southeastern (he may also be a TE or OT prospect). However, his cousin was a standout at Ohio State, and they might be the early favorite. Keevon Newsome is the younger brother of former QB commit Kevin Newsome, and is a highly-sought after DE. Chance Carter from Illinois and Jamel Turner out of Ohio are also good prospects. Turner is likely Ohio’s top 2010 prospect.

LB:
Though the class of 2008 was loaded with LBs, 2009 isn’t the same story. One or two is probably needed in 2010. Jewone Snow out of Canton McKinley (OH) is the son of former Michigan great Garland Rivers. Matt Rea from Pontiac Notre Dame Prep is another potential target. Pennsylvania’s Mike Hull will probably be the nation’s top 2010 LB, but it is unclear whether Michigan has a real shot with him.

S:
Michigan fans would love a top-flight safety. Marvin Robinson from Lake Region (FL) likes Michigan a lot early in the process, and will likely be among the tops at his position. James Manuel from Warren Central (IN) is another pretty good prospect, and Michigan has been able to grab prospects from that school in the past. Kevonte Martin from Birmingham Brother Rice is a good prospect on the gridiron, but may be a college hoops player.

CB:
A good-to-great corner is always a need, particularly for Michigan’s class of 2010, however, as Donovan Warren may be a three-and-done player. Nickell Robey from Frostproof (FL) seems like the best CB in the class of 2010. Cass Tech’s Dior Mathis is diminutive but fast as hell. Unfortunately, he may end up a Miami Hurricane. Lorenza Wood from Apopka (FL) is a high school teammate of 2009 commit Jeremy Gallon.

Of course, all these players are only potential targets, and it is unlikely Michigan will land all of them (or even most of them). Other prospects will emerge on the radar, and some of these guys will certainly fall off of it. However, these guys might be a good group to keep an eye on early in the recruiting cycle.

Posted under Recruiting

Programming Note: Yesterday’s podcast should be fully operational now. Check it out here.

We’re halfway through the recruiting year, and Michigan’s class is already starting to shape up. Let’s take a look at needs filled and remaining, and who is left on the board. This should be used in tandem with the eligibility chart, which reveals how many scholarships Michigan is likely to be able to give out (about 18-20).

Quarterbacks
Need – 2
Commits – 1
After the decommitment of Kevin Newsome, Michigan has need for one additional quarterback to Shavodrick Beaver. Beaver is a tall athlete who is a raw QB prospect with high upside.
Prospects
Michigan needs one more, and a recommitment from Newsome, or a pledge from Tate Foricer or Eugene Smith seem to be the most likely scenarios.

Running Backs
Need – 2-3
Commits – 2
Fitzgerald Toussaint and Teric Jones are speedsters, and Jones was a star at the Army All-american combine last year. Toussaint is a shifty little dude. Both of the current commits are likely to be mixed RB/slot types.
Prospects
Floridian Vincent Smith is announcing his college decision on August 30th, and all signs point to a Michigan hat being pulled out of the bag. If it does indeed come to fruition, Michigan would likely be done recruiting at this position unless a superstar wanted to commit to Michigan as well. Smith has mentioned a desire to enroll early at the school of his choosing.

Wide Receivers
Need – 2-3
Commits – 2
Bryce McNeal is a big, fast gamebreaker on the outside. His highlight tape is very impressive (taking into account the important caveat that almost all highlight tapes are, indeed, impressive). He can go vertical, and has a lot of ability after the catch. Jeremy Gallon is a little guy who is a wishbone QB in high school. He has a ton of speed and moves, and will likely fit in the slot at Michigan.
Prospects
Michigan doesn’t really need another wideout, but if someone the caliber of Shaquelle Evans or Rueben Randle wanted to commit to Michigan, they would make room for him.

Tight Ends
Need – 0-1
Commits – 0
Prospects
Dion Sims from OLSM is a TE prospect, but I think if he committed to Michigan it is likely that he would move to defensive end. Same goes for any other TE commit. This isn’t a position of need at all, since there are several TEs already on the roster, and only one graduating after this season.

Offensive Line
Need – 2-3
Commits – 1
Michael Schofield is a good inside-outside prospect who will probably end up at tackle in Ann Arbor. He has played tight end as well, and shows off his athleticism by running hurdles.
Prospects
Travis Bond has mentioned that he’d like to take an official to UM, and a few other guys like Brennan Williams have expressed strong interest. Michigan would like to get at least one more O-lineman, but if they don’t, it won’t be the end of the world, since none are leaving the team after this year.

Defensive Tackle
Need – 2
Commits – 2
William Campbell is a game-breaking DT, and has a lot of potential. He is explosive and strong. DeQuinta Jones plays DE in high school, but has been putting on enough weight to shift inside in college.

Defensive End
Need – 2-3
Commits – 0
Prospects
Craig Roh is a good-looking strongside defensive end who seems to be genuinely interested in spending the next four years in Ann Arbor. Michigan also needs a speed rusher off the edge, and someone like Keenan Graham could go a long way toward assuaging the fears of Wolverines fans. Someone like Craig Drummond is a possibility as well, but it sounds like he might have trouble qualifying.

Linebacker
Need – 1-3
Commits – 1
Jordan Barnes is currently Michigan’s only true linebacker commit (they have a couple safeties who may move down), and I even think he would look pretty good on offense as a MAX back. However, he is a linebacker for now, and he has athleticism at the position, if not polish.
Prospects
Vincent Smith’s teammate Brandin Hawthorne is also deciding on August 30th, and there is a similar confidence that he will pick Michigan. Beyond that, Michigan would likely hold out for a top-rated (on their board, if not the recruiting sites) linebacker.

Safety
Need – 1-2
Commits – 2
Mike Jones might be a candidate to move to linebacker, and there is a similar sentiment about Isaiah Bell. However, I think that the new system doesn’t emphasize adding bulk, and at least one of them will stay at safety. Bell has the athleticism to also return punts on a team that features Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Jones is used frequently as a blitzer in high school.
Prospects
There are a couple guys left on Michigan’s radar if they decide that one of the current commits would be better served to move down to linebacker. No top prospects are left on the board, but there are some solid lesser-ranked guys.

Corner
Need – 1-3
Commits – 2
Justin Turner is a big, physical corner. though many think he might move to safety, he could be very successful on the boundary in Shafer’s cover-2 schemes. DeWayne Peace is a high school WR/DB who seems to be primed for a full-time move to defense at the next level. He has very quick feet, if not top end speed.
Prospects
Darius Winston and Dre Kirkpatrick are both nominally open to Michigan, though Winston seems primed to pick either Arkansas or Ole Miss on September 5, and Kirkpatrick is thought to be all but delivered to Nick Saban and Alabama. If neither of these guys ends up a Wolverine, there are a couple other prospects, such as Florida’s Mywan Jackson, that could end up in blue.

Kicker
Need – 1
Commits – 1
Anothony Fera, who has a huge leg and the nation’s #2 ranking at the position, is Michigan kicker for the class of 2009.

Analysis
Following the commitments of Smith and Hawthorne (either to Michigan or elsewhere), I expect Michigan to slow down on the recruiting front, and not pick up any lesser-rated players for a while. If a five-star wants to commit, so be it, but they won’t heavily pursue 2-star prospects. After the season, they’ll kick back into high gear, and grab top commits and lesser-rated guys alike as the top players are pulled off the board. xpect an exciting finish in January.

This does tell me o
ne thing: The Michigan coaches, whether they want to admit it or not, are probably pretty confident about how the team will be this season. A successful 2008 might show top recruits that Michigan isn’t as down as people think, and the strategy of holding out for top guys until after the season shows they think they’ll be able to grab those top prospects.

Posted under Recruiting

A midyear recruiting prospectus is on tap for this afternoon. For now, enjoy the recruiting update. Board can be found here, as always.

New Information:
MN WR Commit Bryce McNeal. On the news.
SC DE Sam Montgomery. He has narrowed his list, and will reveal top choices soon.
NV DE Keenan Graham. UCLA leads (info in header).
SC DE Chris Bonds. Article from The State about his past injuries.
AR CB Darius Winston. Sam Webb fluff from the Detroit News.
FL CB/QB Mywan Jackson. Apparently Michigan will give him a shot at QB, and he expects to narrow by one school this week.
GA LB Devekeyan Lattimore. Video fluff:

Removed:
SC S DJ Swearinger. Tennessee commit.

Etc.:
Don’t forget, Brandin Hawthorne and Vincent Smith are announcing on Saturday. Don’t be surprised if they both don Block-M caps.

Analysis:
Keep in mind, this is the first week that the recruiting update comes before some official visits. On the docket for this weekend: CA QB Tate Forcier and AZ DE Craig Roh.

Posted under Recruiting

A weekly look at Michigan commits’ performances in their high school games.

TX QB Shavodrick Beaver No game, but 2 TDs accounted for in a scrimmage.
OH RB Fitzgerald Toussaint W 55-21 19 Carries, 115 Yds. Also his dad did not stab a guy.
MI RB Teric Jones No game
MN WR Bryce McNeal No game
FL Slot Jeremy Gallon No game
IL OL Michael Schofield No game
MI DT William Campbell No game
LA DT DeQuinta Jones No game
IN LB Jordan Barnes W 55-21 No stats given
FL S Mike Jones No game
OH S Isaiah Bell No stats given (played RB on offense)
OH CB Justin Turner W 45-29 22 Carries, 140 Yds
TX CB DeWayne Peace No Game

Posted under Recruiting

As we get into the actual football season, the posting schedule ’round these parts is going to be changing up a bit. Here is what you can expect during the season:

• Recruiting Updates will now be relegated to one day a week, which I have yet to definitively determine. However, I am contemplating making Saturday morning posts dedicated to the Friday night performances of Michigan commits. Thoughts?
• I will be posting a draft BlogPoll ballot for commenting on Mondays, then the final ballot on Wednesdays.
• The podcast will be switching from Sunday to a time late in the week. The new focus of it will be previewing the upcoming opponent. Tomorrow, the podcast will feature our guest Tony Pizza, live from Salt Lake City, Utah (by which I mean “recorded yesterday from Salt Lake City, Utah”).
• I’m thinking about posting a new video feature each week that will be called “Inside the Play.” It will be an in-depth breakdown of one notable play from the game in the preceding week. All in favor? Opposed?
• I will also (possibly) be trading posts once a week with our colleagues/rivals at Buckeye Commentary. More details on that forthcoming.

If you have any requests for features you’d like to see on a weekly basis, let me know in the comments.

Posted under Blog News

Action since last rankings:
8-18-08 Michigan gains commitment from Anthony Fera.
8-20-08 Michigan loses commitment from Kevin Newsome.
8-21-08 Northwestern gains commitment from Tim Riley.
Since there wasn’t a ton going on this week, I’ll give a little commentary on how good each of the classes is, and the size of gaps between them.

New Rankings:

Solid class by the Bucks, but they aren’t likely to challenge for the mythical recruiting national champion in February.

There is a pretty big dropoff between Michigan and OSU, especially after one of the top commits in the class is there no longer. However, Michigan has filled needs with the types of players that are god in its specific system, if not highly ranked.

The gap between Michigan and Notre Dame isn’t quite as large as that between Ohio State and Michigan, but it is a fairly sizable one. The Irish have gotten a couple of big-time commits, however.

MSU is virtually tied with Notre Dame, though their class has less upside. They aren’t likely to challenge for any more 5-star recruits either, so unless Michigan and Notre Dame lose a lot of players form their classes, this is the peak position for the Spartans.

Penn State is nearly in a tie with Michigan State, but I rank them lower because they have tons of 3-stars and few exciting prospects.

Illinois has a very strong base for their class, and Ron Zook can be expected to continue to recruit well.

There is a pretty sizable gap between Illinois and Wisconsin. They are filling needs, and I always give offensive linemen committed to the Badgers an extra mental half-star.

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There is a cavernous, gaping hole between Wisconsin and Minnesota, even though just a look at the number of commits and stars wouldn’t seem to indicate that. Is Brewster’s recruiting mojo wearing off?

Indiana is implementing a new strategy of trying to fill their class early (which may be an overall trend in recruiting nationally). It’s working well for them so far, as they appear to be fielding their best class in years.

Cavernous, gaping hole between IU and UI. Iowa lost their best commit to MSU, but made up for it by landing the state’s top player. Ferentz is probably toast, though.

Northwestern has been built on sleepers, and they will continue to do so. However, just because a player isn’t
highly rated doesn’t make him a sleeper. Some guys just aren’t any good.

Purdue has easily the worst class in the Big Ten so far.

Posted under Recruiting

Projected Depth Chart

Kicking Game
After The Horror and the several other games in which Jason Gingell was horrible, he was replaced by5th-year senior KC Lopata, who just so happened to be pretty good. He will return as the kicker. Punting will be the domain of redshirt junior Zoltan Mesko, with Bryan Wright handling kickoffs. Wright is also moving from placekicker to punter, where he will back up Mesko.

Statistics

Analysis
KC was a good replacement for Gingell last year, and should maintain his grip on the job in 2008. He was consistent, even if he doesn’t have great leg strength. Zoltan is poised to be one of the best punters in the conference, and Bryan Wright has a big leg for kicking touchbacks, but clearly not accurate enough to kick field goals. The move to a rugby punt may scare some Michigan fans, but it hasn’t come back to bite West Virginia in recent years.

Return Game
On punt returns, Donovan Warren is expected to be the starter. If his speed isn’t what the team needs at the position, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a return to the steady hands of Greg Mathews. On kickoff returns, Morgan Trent and Brandon Harrison are expected to start. Both have good top-end speed.

Statistics:

Analysis
There are plenty of options, especially with the freshmen recreuited to the speed-friendly offense of Rich Rodriguez. Don’t be surprised to see a more exciting return game than Michigan had in 2007, though perhaps not as electrifying as Steve Breaston was in the role.

Posted under Analysis

Michigan Defense
Defensive Line
Linebackers
Secondary

Overall Defensive Analysis
This should be the strength of the team, with several returning starters, especially along the D-line. Having to replace big parts of the linebacking corps and secondary may be troublesome, but the defensive line is expected to be somewhat dominant. As long as they keep the pressure on, the other units might not have to do too much.

Keys to Defensive Success
The Mike Barwis factor may get more press than it deserves, but the defensive line was consistently winded during games last year, and if they are all in shape to go for an entire game, they should bring a lot of success to the offense. With the more aggressive defensive schemes of Scott Shafer, the corners will have to be able to get a good jam on receivers, and the new safeties will have to prevent giving up big plays. Another thing that might be helpful is to score some points on their own, since the offense may struggle to do so.

Posted under Analysis

Michigan Offense
Offensive Backs
Receiving Corps
Offensive Line

Overall Offensive Analysis
The youth and inexperience at quarterback and offensive line (and to a certain extent, receiver) could mean bad things for the Michigan offense this year. The running backs will provide a certain degree of consistency. The slots are very young, but the system is tailored to their skill sets, and they should have some success.

Keys to Offensive Success
Quarterback play is essential in this system, and it will be especially crucial in 2008 with youth at the position. The quarterbacks will have to distribute the ball to the playmakers (enough of which there are to run a successful offense) and avoid making mistakes and committing turnovers. The offense has to keep the ball, and allow the defense to get a bit of rest. Since the defense is expected to be fairly dominant, the offense’s main job is to not screw up.

Posted under Analysis