It’s the one day every four years where America decides who will be the Chief Executive of our country for the next term. In that spirit, let’s decide on a few things in the realm of Michigan football. Leave your ballots in the comments section, with justifications for your choices if you so desire.

President
The player that you think is the best leader on the team. This may not be the same as your secretary choices.

Secretary of Defense
The Defensive MVP of the team at this point in the season.

Secretary of Offense
The Offensive MVP of the team at this point in the season.

Secretary of the Interior
My lame attempt at a Terrance Taylor joke.

Most Deserving of Impeachment
The one coach that you think Michigan absolutely needs to get rid of, ASAP.

Posted under Football

The Board.

Added:
IL WR Kyle Prater. A big outside wideout from Illinois.
MI OT Nate Coleman. The Livonia Franklin product was at the MSU game.

New Information:
WA QB Jake Heaps. Fluffy stuff.
IL QB DaRon Brown. Injury news.
VA QB Phillip Sims. Recruiting-y fluff.
CA RB Brennan Clay. Tate Foricer’s HS teammate has reportedly been offered, and Scout confirms.
FL WR Commit Ricardo Miller. (Obviously incomplete) highlights from his junior year.
OH OL Matt James. Apparently offered, recent Notre Dame visitor.
FL S Marvin Robinson. Sam Webb says what many people who follow recruiting have been silently thinking: his coach is a nutjob. OK, when I originally typed that, there was no pun intended, but there’s no way I can pass up “bucknutjob.” Anyway, it seems like there might be a possibility of Marvin changing high schools.
FL CB Tyler Blandin. Cryptic Scout headline implies that there is much mutual interest between Blandin and Michigan – and he may help bring a couple other prospects in.

Analysis:
– First, Marvin Robinson: To anyone who’s following his recruitment at all, it has seemed for quite some time that he has wanted to commit to Michigan, but something was holding him back. It’s becoming more apparent that a batshit insane head coach is that hindering factor. Those reading the tea leaves think that he’s all but committed to Michigan.
– At corner, it’s starting to look like Lorenza Wood, Tyler Blandin, and Dior Mathis are the top three on Michigan’s recruiting board. If they can get all three, I think they’d take them all and switch one (Mathis, perhaps?) to slot receiver.

Posted under Football

So, with a little more time to let this game stew, it’s time to make a few more observations.

First, what was up with the defense? It hasn’t been good this year by any means, but it has never been quite that bad. Plus, the base scheme switched from the 4-3 (or the 3-4 nickel) to a pretty standard 3-3-5 stack. I’m not sure if RR decided to go with something he was used to, since Shafer’s schemes haven’t been lighting the world on fire. The 3-3-5 has developed something of a reputation for being good against the run, but bad against the pass. On Saturday, it was subpar against each. I’m not one to rag on Shafer, as most of the defensive woes are from players being in position, but missing tackles (re-watch the game if you want to torture yourself in that department) or being otherwise John Thompson-y, but the perforfmance the other day still has me scratching my head.

Steven Threet is obviously a lot more hurt than either he or the coaching staff wants to admit. Ever since the elbow bruise, he has been alternatingly mediocre and bad. On Saturday, he was 9-21 for 123 yards. What’s more disturbing than that? He is still infinitely better than Nick Sheridan. Sheridan’s numbers would have likely been similar, except trading the two touchdowns for interceptions.

Martavious Odoms, Darryl Stonum, and Boubacar Cissoko had something of a coming out party, though Odoms had flashes of brilliance earlier in the year. Stonum’s touchdown catch-and-run was nothing short of awesome, and both Odoms and Cissoko looked more than competent returning kicks and punts.

Justin Feagin played on special teams. What is the point of holding a guy out most of the year, then switching his position and burning his redshirt? It doesn’t make much sense, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it had something to do with trick play ability in the last few games.

With Brandon Minor proving himself to be something of a competent back when he doesn’t fumble, I wonder if Sam McGuffie will see a little more time in the slot. Michigan currently has an absolute dearth of bodies at the position, and he could be useful there. I don’t think it would be a permanent change, just something to fill a gap.

I wonder how different his year could have been if we’d gotten one of the games early in the year against Utah or Notre Dame. I don’t think the team is as bad as they’ve played of late, but there confidence has shattered, and the coaches may be trying to do too much stuff, and changing things around as they scramble for wins. At this point, I don’t think Purdue is really a better team (particularly with their third-string quarterback), but Michigan is just stuck in a downward spiral that probably won’t end until next year.

Posted under Football

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Penn State	1
2	Alabama	1
3	Texas Tech	4
4	Texas	3
5	Oklahoma State	—
6	Oklahoma	2
7	Florida	1
8	Southern Cal	2
9	Utah	1
10	Boise State	4
11	TCU	2
12	Georgia	3
13	Missouri	1
14	Ohio State	3
15	Michigan State	1
16	Brigham Young	1
17	Minnesota	—
18	California	6
19	Maryland	—
20	Pittsburgh	1
21	Georgia Tech	5
22	Tulsa	4
23	Florida State	3
24	West Virginia	2
25	LSU	2

Posted under Football

If you know of an article that can help out, let me know. I’ll fill in the remaining game articles/stats as I find the articles. 2010 updates will come in the form of a year-end wrapup.

CA QB Tate Forcier
This Week: Scripps Ranch v. Lincoln. Scripps wins 52-40.
Season Totals: Scripps Ranch 6-2.

Posted under Football

Action since last rankings:
10-26-08 Iowa gains commitment from Anthony Schiavone. Iowa gains commitment from Justin Lattimore. Purdue gains commitment from Brandon Taylor.
10-31-08 Illinois gains commitment from Craig Drummond.

New Rankings:

Posted under Football

John Heuser postulates in the AA News that Michigan’s defense is one of its worst ever. OK, he didn’t exactly use those terms, but he made his argument in such a way that it’s the easiest conclusion to draw from the article, even for Doctor Saturday.

Heuser raises several valid points, but overall, there’s a little margin for error in his analysis. Most egregiously, I think there isn’t nearly enough emphasis on the offense’s role in the entire debacle. The unit seems to be mostly thrown in as an afterthought:

While a strong defense can help a team’s offense by forcing turnovers, stopping third-down plays and preserving field position, an offense can also support the defense. The Wolverines’ attack is doing little to make things easier on Michigan’s defenders. Michigan is the lowest-scoring, most turnover-prone team in the Big Ten.

They aren’t just not making it easier for the Michigan defense, but this Michigan offense is so epically bad that it’s tangibly hurting the defense’s chances for success.

First off, Heuser doesn’t even mention that, regardless of field position, the Michigan offense has scored 16 points this season for the opposing team. The field position hasn’t helped either, as several opponent scoring drives started well into Michigan territory. And although time of possession isn’t really a cause of team success so much as a result, being on the field a lot can really tire out a defense, leading to an inability to stop opposing offenses. Michigan is near the bottom of the NCAA in that metric, with the defense averaging more than 33 minutes of time on the field in each game.

So let’s look at each Michigan game, and see how many points the offense “helped” the defense give up, and how many the defense helped the offense score. A legend for you, since the first time I showed this to Paul he was confused as hell:

• “Defense -3” means that the defense is being blamed for a score when the opposing offense got the ball in field goal range. This is not entirely the fault of the defense, since the opposing team could have theoretically kicked (and presumably made) a field goal on 1st down. If the opposing offense scored a touchdown, it is still a -3 for the defense, since they could have conceivably held the other team to a field goal. The last four points are on them.
• “Defense +3” occurs when the opposing team drives the ball on the Michigan defense but misses a field goal. This is 3 points that the defense should be accountable but didn’t show up in the final score.
• “Defense -7” is when the Michigan offense gets scored on. The defense’s reputation shouldn’t suffer if Notre Dame or Toledo can take a Steven Threet mistake back for 7 points.
• “Defense +3” means that the defense has provided the ball to Michigan’s offense in field goal range. The defense earned 3 of the points scored on the drive. Even if Michigan ends up scoring a touchdown, the offense really only earned 4 of the points since, again, they could conceivably have kicked a field goal on first down.
• “Defense +7” is scored when Johnny Thompson takes an interception all the way back, and the defense scores those 7 points all on its own, without help from the offense.

Red = opponent points and Green = Michigan points. As a quick note, special teams plays do not count for this one way or the other, except in terms of scoring plays and field position. I guess that theoretically means a touchdown with no extra point should count for less against the defense, but whatever. “minus” means that the defense isn’t responsible for those points, even though they are being blamed, and “plus” means they should be held responsible for points, although they aren’t being blamed for them. “Plus” means that the defense is not getting credit for points, even though they should be.

Of course, you could do this unscientific study with other Michigan teams as well, and they may have scored more for their offense (2006 comes to mind), but I doubt the offense has ever hurt Michigan’s defensive unit as much as it is this year.

Utah
Defense on the field for 35:54
Michigan TD: 26-yard drive after a Utah special teams fumble.
Utah TD: 75-yard drive.
Michigan FG: 50-yard drive after long KR + Utah personal foul.
Utah FG: 66-yard drive.
Utah FG: 47-yard drive.
Utah FG: 58-yard drive.
Utah TD: Drive started in FG range after INT. Defense -3 points.
Utah FG: Four-yard drive started in FG range. Defense -3 points.
Michigan TD: 33-yard drive due to good defense and blocked punt. Defense +3 points.
MIchigan TD: 31-yard drive following Utah fumble. Defense +3 points.

So, in the first game alone, the offense netted Utah 6 points (and the Utes earned the last 4 on their touchdown drive against the Michigan defense), while getting Michigan three points (and Michigan earned the last 7 by scoring touchdowns on each, but failing on a 2-point conversion on the second).

Miami
Defense on the field for 35:13
Michigan TD: 77-yard drive. Note: this is Michigan’s first touchdown “drive” of the year.
Michigan FG: 4-yard drive starts on the Miami 35 after a RedHawks fumble. Defense +3 points.
Miami FG: 72-yard drive.
Miami FG: 60-yard drive.
Michigan TD: 87-yard drive.

The Michigan defense is culpable for all 6 Miami points, but also earned 3 points of their own by forcing a fumble.

Notre Dame
Defense on the field for 27:48
Notre Dame TD: 11-yard drive after a special teams fumble. Defense -3 points.
Notre Dame TD: 14-yard drive after a special-teams fumble. Defense -3 points.
Notre Dame TD: 63-yard 1-play drive after Michigan fails on 4th down.
Michigan TD: 75-yard drive.
Michigan FG: 67-yard drive after an interception.
Notre Dame TD: 87-yard drive.
Michigan TD: 60-yard drive after an ND kick goes out of bounds.
Notre Dame TD: 35-yard fumble return. Defense -7 points.

Michigan’s offense is pseudo-competent for one game, but the special teams destroys any chance of victory, and the offense gives up a gift at the end.

Wisconsin
Defense on the field for 36:04
Wisconsin FG: missed after a big KO return starts them in FG range.
Wisconsin FG: 23-yard drive starts in FG range. Defense -3 points.
Wisconsin FG: 43-yard drive.
Wisconsin TD: 60-yard drive after a Michigan fumble.
Wisconsin FG: 3-yard drive after a Michigan fumble. Defense -3 points.
Wisconsin FG: 16-yard drive following and interception of Threet.
Michigan TD: 8
0-yard drive.
Michigan TD: 85-yard drive.
Michigan TD: John Thompson interception return. Threet sacked on 2-pt attempt. Defense +6.
Michigan TD: 77-yard drive.
Wisconsin TD: 64-yard drive.

Michigan’s defense was put in bad positions on 3 Wisconsin field goals (one of which the Badgers missed), and scored a touchdown of its own.

Illinois
Defense on the field for 33:06
Michigan TD: 48-yard drive following big punt return(!) by Greg Mathews(!!).
Illinois FG: 38-yard drive.
Michigan TD: 61-yard drive.
Illinois TD: 67-yard drive.
Illinois TD: 84-yard drive.
Illinois TD: 77-yard drive.
Illinois FG Missed: 48-yard drive. Defense +3 points.
Illinois TD: 48-yard drive following a Michigan fumble. Defense -3 points.
Michigan TD: 73-yard drive.
Illinois TD: 68-yard drive.
Illinois TD: 16-yard drive following a Michigan special teams fumble. Defense -3 points.

The defense was put in two tough spots by the offense, giving up 6 points (3 each on two TDs) that they can’t be held responsible for. However, Illinois bailed them out on 3 more points that they should have been responsible for.

Toledo
Defense on the field for 33:08
Michigan goalline interception thrown after a 28-yard drive: Defense +3 points.
Toledo TD: Said interception returned for a touchdown. Defense -7 points.
Michigan TD: 55-yard drive.
Michigan FG: 45-yard drive.
Toledo FG: Missed after a 75-yard drive. Defense +3 points.
Toledo FG: 69-yard drive.
Toledo FG: 9-yard drive after Michigan turns the ball over in FG range. Defense -3 points.
Michigan FG: Missed after a 58-yard drive.

This game has the largest swing of any so far. The defense earned the offense 3 points they didn’t capitalize on, and wasn’t responsible for Toledo’s touchdown or one of their field goals. However, they also should have given up 3 more points, but didn’t thanks to a miss by Toledo’s kicker. If the defense had their way, the score in this game would have been at least 16-6, with Michigan jumping out to an early 13-point lead, which may have caused the Rockets to fold early in the game. Regardless, they had trouble getting the Rockets off the field all game, whether they turned most of those drives into points or not.

Penn State
Defense on the field for 30:19
Michigan TD: 86-yard drive.
Michigan FG: 45-yard drive (defense got the ball to the offense at their own 45).
Penn State TD: 52-yard drive after a good kickoff return.
Michigan TD: 78-yard drive.
Penn State FG: Missed after a 48-yard drive. Defense +3 points.
Penn State TD: 74-yard drive.
Penn State FG: 61-yard drive.
Penn State Safety: Sheridammit. Defense -2 points.
Penn State TD: 50-yard drive after Zoltan’s free kick goes out of bounds.
Penn State FG: 27-yard drive starts in FG range. Defense -3 points.
Penn State TD: 19-yard drive after a Threet fumble. Defense -3 points.
Penn State FG: 56-yard drive.
Penn State TD: 80-yard drive.

So, yeah. Penn State actually had tons of success against the Michigan defense. Only a net of 5 points that the defense shouldn’t be held accountable for, including 3 that Penn State didn’t even get due to a missed FG. On points actually scored, it’s defense -7.

Michigan State
Defense on the field for 35:18
Michigan State TD: 83-yard drive.
Michigan TD: 18-yard drive following a Stevie Brown fumble recovery. Defense +3 points.
Michigan State FG: Missed after a 48-yard drive. Defense +3 points.
Michigan State FG: Missed after drive starts in FG range.
Michigan State TD: 64-yard drive.
Michigan TD: 65-yard drive.
Michigan TD: 66-yard drive.
Michigan State FG: Missed after a 55-yard drive. Defense +3 points.
Michigan State TD: 63-yard drive.
Michigan State TD: 82-yard drive.
Michigan State TD: 40-yard drive after interception. Defense -3 points.

The defense broke even in this game, and also allowed a ton of long drives. Taking quality of opposing offense into account, it might be their worst game of the year.

Add ’em up
The score of Michigan’s games (aggregate) so far this year:
Opponents: 230
Michigan: 151

Taking out all the net changes that the defense accounted for (or adding those that they should be held accountable for), the score would be:
Opponents: 193
Michigan: 130

Without being harmed by offense and special teams, the defense would be giving up a more-respectable (but still not very good) 24.13 points per game.

So the defense has still earned lots of the flak it’s getting. However, with all the time they’re on the field, their delta in points for each team is Michigan +16. That means the defense’s net points scored for Michigan that they weren’t responsible for (on defense) or were responsible for (by scoring themselves) is 16 points, and that’s even using a fairly harsh metric.

Which outcomes would have been affected? Going strictly by points, and disregarding any swings in momentum, only the Toledo game would have had a different outcome, though the Notre Dame game would have been within one touchdown, easy range against the Irish defense. If you take momentum into account, the Utah and Notre Dame games could have easily had a different outcome, and the Penn State game could have been significantly more competitive. Even still, how much happier would Michigan fans be with a 4-4 record, including wins over Utah and Toledo?

Maybe the defense is being judged just a little too harshly for losing games for Michigan. Still, the big play is too available, thanks to sketchy safeties and linebackers. This defense needs to improve if Michigan is going to have any success at all over their last four games.

Posted under Football

The Board.

New Information:
MD RB Tavon Austin. Has a top 3 of Michigan, North Carolina, and WVU.
MI DT William Campbell. Sam Webb still thinks Michigan ends up grabbing him (audio). Scouting reports on him and his teammates.
MI RB Teric Jones. Scouting report (same as above).
MI S Thomas Gordon. Scouting report (same as above).
MI WR Cameron Gordon. Sam Webb News fluff.
SC S Devonte Holloman. May make a commitment without getting a chance to visit Michigan. It sounds like Michigan is no longer under consideration, though different sources have said otherwise recently. He’ll stay on the board for now.
FL S Vladimir Emilien. Michigan the team to beat? (audio). He’s deciding November 23rd.
FL CB Jayron Hosley. Doesn’t sound like Michigan is really involved at all. Also, all-access video piece.
MD CB Travis Hawkins. He’s deciding today. Final four of PSU, Maryland, Oregon, and Michigan. Maryland and Oregon are the likely final two there.

Removed:
TX S Craig Loston. LSU Commit.

Etc.:
In the audio above, Sam Webb gives a little treatise on Michigan’s in-state recruiting in 2009. His feelings are essentially the same as mine, in that people are making a big to-do when there is no substance to the “allegations.”
Freep fluff on the senior recruits at the MSU game.

Analysis:
I’ve been wondering for some time if Michigan will get back in on Cameron Gordon, if only to help with his junior teammate, Devin Gardner. It appears as though he’s resigned to ending up at linebacker, though Michigan may be filling up at the position. Who knows how it’ll end up, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Michigan go after him at least a little bit more.

Posted under Football

There may be another ITP coming from this game. Stay tuned later in the week in case there is.

The Situation
It’s Michigan State’s first drive of the game. The drive started on their own 17, and despite a big sack, they were able to convert on a long third down attempt, completing a pass to Mark Dell. After a pair of Javon Ringer runs, they face 3rd and 5 from their own 39 yard line. A stop here, and Michigan sets the tone against Little Brother. If the Spartans convert, however, they might be able to ride the momentum to their first victory against the Wolverines since 2001.

The Personnel and Formation

Michigan State comes out in a 4-wide shotgun. White Blair is in the left slot next to Mark Dell, and a tight end (Charlie Gantt) is lined up in the right slot. Javon Ringer is to Hoyer’s right. Michigan counters this formation with a 4-3. Jonas Mouton is head-up with White, and Johnny Thompson is over the tight end. Stevie Brown and Brandon Harrison are the safeties.

The Play

Michigan appears to be running a cover-2 man scheme on this play. Jonas Mouton is the important party, as he is White’s man. At the snap, Dell doesn’t even go out on a route, and instead occupies Trent with a block of sorts. On the right, the other wideout gets an outside release and runs his defender (Warren) off. The slots are making all the magic on this play. Gantt runs a hook towards the middle of the field, and White runs a slant. This is clearly a one-read play for Hoyer, as he never looks anywhere other than directly at White. White makes the catch, breaks a tackle from Stevie Brown, and races to the endzone.

Why it Worked

Jonas Mouton gets completely burned by his man on this play. He gives up the middle of the field, and is left chasing after White. Compounding the issue, Stevie Brown pretty much whiffs on his tackle, allowing White to get behind the last line of defense. Mouton is culpable for the reception, and Brown is at fault for allowing a first down to turn into a touchdown.

Posted under Football

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas	—
2	Penn State	—
3	Alabama	—
4	Oklahoma	3
5	Oklahoma State	1
6	Southern Cal	2
7	Texas Tech	1
8	Florida	2
9	Georgia	4
10	Utah	1
11	Ohio State	2
12	Missouri	3
13	TCU	—
14	Boise State	5
15	Brigham Young	6
16	Michigan State	10
17	Minnesota	3
18	Tulsa	8
19	Maryland	5
20	Florida State	3
21	Pittsburgh	2
22	South Florida	10
23	LSU	9
24	California	2
25	Iowa	1

Posted under Football