More bad recruiting news, as Anthony Fera has decommitted from Michigan.

As much as people think the position isn’t particularly important for recruiting, we really could have used a good kicker in the 2009 class, and the mere fact that there is more attrition at all is a little unsettling for Michigan fans who follow recruiting.

We’ll have to see where the staff goes with this, and I’ll bring more info as it comes out.

Posted under Football

While Rich Rodriguez, Michigan coach, has never faced off against Mark Dantonio, Michigan State coach, the two individuals have coached against each other in a former life. In 2005, Dantonio was the headman at Cincinnati, the new kid on the block in the Big East. Rodriguez was just starting his multi-year romp through the Big East. The Bearcats and Mountaineers squared off in Nippert Stadium, then met again in Morgantown the following year.

Can that series tell us anything about how the contest in Ann Arbor this weekend is going to turn out? While those were the same coaches, they were with different teams, in drastically different situations. West Virginia was in the midst of making the entire conference its bitch, while Cincinnati was just moving up from Conference-USA. However, Mark Dantonio is a defensively-oriented coach (he was Ohio State’s defensive coordinator from 2001 to 2003), while Rich Rodriguez spends the majority of his energy on offense. Perhaps there are some relevant tidbits to tell us a little something about how Saturday’s game will transpire.

2005
38 West Virginia-Cincinnati 0
The Mountaineers rushed for 297 yards (Cincinnati only gained 269 total yards), with Steve Slaton leading the way, gaining 129 on 25 carries (5.16/carry). Pat White had success one the ground as well, gaining 111 yards to accompany his 100 through the air (on 7-12 passing with one TD).

Since Michigan doesn’t have Pat White, what can we glean from this performance? For starters, West Virginia scored on their first drive. This is a tribute to good game planning by Calvin Magee and Rich Rodriguez, and allowed the Mountaineers to put their opponents on their heels from the beginning of the game. In addition, the Bearcats gave up 100-yard rushing performances to two, players, which they rarely did under Dantonio (with the caveat that one of them was White, of course). Cincinnati’s leading tackler was a safety, which isn’t out of the ordinary, but maybe troubling when playing a team that did most of its damage on the ground. Cincinnati also did manage a few tackles for loss, sacks, and hurries. With a less mobile quarterback, that may mean that State can force Michigan into similar situations with its defensive schemes.

2006
42 West Virginia-Cincinnati 24
The rushing attack of West Virginia was once again potent in Year 2 of the Dantonio-Rodriguez rivalry. This time, the Mountaineers gained 313 yards on the ground, with 148 of them coming on the legs of Steve Slaton (on just 12 carries, for an eye-popping average of 12.33/carry). Pat White contributed 93 yards of his own, while going 7-13 for 98 yards and a TD over the air. Though Cincinnati scored the game’s first points on a field goal, it was all Mountaineers from there until the game was out of reach.

What can this tell us for a game between Michigan and Michigan State? Even if the Wolverines get down early, the quick-strike capability of this offense can keep them in the game. Also, although team speed is largely a matter of recruiting, even Cincinnati’s press release for this game acknowledged that the offensive schemes of West Virginia had the Cincinnati defensive braintrust stumped. Add in that Michigan has been building and recruiting for speed (and has had much better recruiting success that Michigan State in recent years), and the Wolverines could have success soon.

Analysis
West Virginia won by a comfortable margin in each game, averaging 40 points. The success on offense may lead one to believe that Mark Dantonio has trouble defending Rodriguez’s particular implementation of the spread. An interesting note may be that West Virginia was more dominant in 2005, the year in which they scored first (despite being on the road). If Michigan can draw first blood, perhaps the Spartans will be on their heels. Can RichRod make the struggles continue at a new school? We’ll find out Saturday afternoon.

Posted under Football

If you know of an article that can help out, let me know. I’ll fill in the remaining game articles/stats as I find the articles. 2010 updates will come in the form of a year-end wrapup.

CA QB Tate Forcier
This Week: Scripps Ranch v. St. Augustine. Scripps wins 40-36.

With a sprained ankle, sore back, cramps in his legs and a woozy head, Scripps Ranch quarterback extraordinaire Tate Forcier limped off the Serra High football field last night with an amazing 40-36 victory over Eastern League rival St. Augustine…

It doesn’t sound too serious. I hope. The touchdown runs?:

He also rushed 14 times for 121 yards and had touchdown runs of 1, 53 and 47 yards. And he plays cornerback on defense.

Season Totals: Scripps Ranch 5-1.

Season Totals: Pius 4-2.

Posted under Football

Action since last rankings:
10-13-08 Michigan loses commitment of Bryce McNeal.
Rivals also updated its player rankings, though not too many Big Ten commits saw a change. There were a couple minor shakeups in the actual team rankings as a result.

New Rankings:

Down: Simon (from 4)

Up: Bennie Fowler (from 2)

Up: Thomas (from 3)

Up: Ball (from 3)

Up: Jeremy Gainer (from 3), Kenny Watkins (from 2).

Up: Riley (from 1) Paxton (from 2)

Up: Shayon Green (from 2).

Posted under Football

When I previewed Penn State in the summer, I knew the Nittany Lions would be good. Did I know they’d be this good? Maybe not, but I certainly thought they’d be undefeated at this point in the season. PSU has run roughshod over pretty much every challenger in their way, primarily on the strength of QB Daryll Clark. Michigan would have to pull off one of the biggest surprises of the year so far to even stay within 20 of the Nittany Lions tomorrow afternoon.

Offense
Daryll Clark, perhaps most memorable to Michigan fans for being the second QB knocked out of the game the last time the Wolverines traveled to Happy Valley, has emerged as one of the premier signal-callers in the conference, if not the nation. He is reminiscent of Michael Robinson in directing Penn State’s Spread HD offense: he might not be the most skilled passer in the world, but Robinson proved a few years ago that it isn’t necessary to run a successful offense. The two-headed monster of Evan Royster and Stefphon Green that PSU fans predicted coming into the year has been primarily the Evan Royster show, with Green as more of a backup and situational player. On the wings, Jordan Norwood, Deon Butler, and Derrick Williams return for their 500th year as starters for Penn State. Their distribution of catches is disturbingly even, ranging from 21 to 23. Derrick Williams, with the most catches, has the fewest yards, though part of that may be due to the fact that he’s manning the underappreciated Steve Breaston 2006 role for PSU. The offensive line is doing well itself, having ceded the 12th fewest sacks in Division I-A, and earning the 12th most rushing yards.

For this specific matchup, I would like to hope that Michigan can at least slow down the rushing attack. The Wolverines’ DL is among the best Penn State has seen so far this year, but with the way Juice Williams owned the Wolverines, I don’t think Clark should struggle to get his team moving the ball on the ground. In the secondary, Boubacar Cissoko got some valuable experience last week in place of Donovan Warren, and if Warren returns this week, the corners should be able to be in position to stop the spread. As always, it’s the duty of the safeties and linebackers to strike fear into the hearts of Michigan fans.

Defense
The losses up front have not harmed the Nittany Lions like it seemed like they would early in the year. Chris Baker, Devon Still, and a host of other players have been replaced admirably by Aaron Maybin, Josh Gaines, and others. The one disappointment on that front, however, has been Maurice Evans. After a stellar 2007, he has yet to produce for Penn State this season. PSU’s linebackers have been led by Navorro Bowman. In the secondary, Penn State is in the top 10 in pass efficiency defense, but significantly worse in overall pass defense – that indicates little more than the fact that teams have been forced to pass their way out of big holes against PSU.

Michigan’s offense, if it wants to succeed at all, needs to get on the scoreboard early in this game. Penn State’s defense has succeeded mostly in preventing teams from playing a balanced offensive scheme. Of course, Michigan is unlikely to be able to run against Penn State either way. Martavious Odoms’s return is important, because it gives Steven Threet more ability to pass down the field and open up the run game. The possibility of Terrance Robinson and Justin Feagin finally playing this week also triples Michigan’s number of viable options in the slot.

Predictions
Someone other than Sam McGuffie is Michigan’s leading rusher.
Daryll Clark has at least 2 passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown.
Michigan keeps it a little closer than expected, but loses 38-17.

Posted under Football

Or: How one player can catch 20 passes in a game.

The Situation(s)
In Round 1, Toledo trails Michigan by 3 in the 3rd quarter. The Rockets are driving for the chance to take a lead, but they are already well within field goal range. They have a 2nd-and-10 from the Michigan 21. Their strategy: move the ball down the field with short, easy passes.

In Round 2, the game is now tied at 10 late in the third. The Rockets are now driving for the opportunity to take the lead. They have a 1st-and-10 from their own 21. The Rockets decide to stick with what has been working: the short passing game.

The Personnel and Formation(s)
On both plays, the Rockets are in a 3-wide, 2-tight end formation. In the first situation, Michigan counters with their Okie package. In the second, they are in a standard 4-3, but the personnel is spread wide. Since he’s the player we’re focusing on, each Toledo formation has Nick Moore to the twins side, though he is in the slot in round 1 and out wide in the second play.

The Play(s)

In both situations, Toledo keeps each tight end for a max protect. In both situations, Toledo runs a simple combo route that takes advantage of what they presume to be soft coverage of one form or another.

In situation 1, it is a hitch-flat combo that takes advantage of man coverage with a huge cushion provided on Moore by Brandon Harrison.

In the second situation, it is a slant-flat combo that takes advantage of cover-2 defense by Michigan and infamously terrible pass coverage by John Thompson.

Why They Worked

These are good reads by Opelt against predictably vanilla defenses. In the first one, he sees that the cushion is large enough to guarantee that Moore will get about 5 yards. In the second, Thompson follows the flat receiver into Trent’s zone (so pin this play on him), and then Brown’s pursuit angle is lacking somewhat. This is a case of being outschemed (due to lack of effort) and John Thompson just kinda sucking.

It was clear by this point that Moore was the #1 option on essentially every play, and Michigan’s scheme should have been catered slightly more to slowing him down (and John Thompson should have realized his error before it happened). Marell Evans must be really far behind, because it would be hard to play worse than Thompson, at least in coverage.

Posted under Football

The Board.

Moved to Committed:

Moved from Committed:
MN WR Bryce McNeal. Decommitted Monday night.

Added:
SC S Devonte Holloman. The former Michigan target has decommitted from Clemson. Potential visits include Michigan.
TX S Craig Loston. Also a Clemson decommit. Michigan was in on him early, but they may not be a player anymore. He’ll get a little time on the board until we can figure out if he’s a viable target.

New Information:
MI DT William Campbell. He’s set his visits. Sam Webb reveals what they shall be.
LA DT Commit DeQuinta Jones. He’s looking around a little bit. Might it result in a decommitment?
AZ DE Craig Roh. His game this Friday will be broadcast over the internet. You can find it at aia365.com. Just as a disclaimer, I couldn’t gt this site to work properly during the week, so don’t get your hopes too high.
MD DE Jason Ankrah. Visiting PSU for the Michigan game this weekend.
MD LB Jelani Jenkins. He has trimmed to 15; Michigan is in.

Removed:

Etc.:
A sort of state-of-the-recruiting class statement from Josh Helmholdt in the Free Press.
Not on the board because he’s technically still committed to Florida, but Nu’Keese Richardson still intends to visit for the Michigan State game next week.

Analysis:

Posted under Football

Coming into this season, I got countless e-mails asking me why Michigan was expected to struggle this year, whereas Penn State was considered one of the preseason favorites for the Big Ten title. I discussed this a bit back in the summer, but now that the Wolverines and Nitanny Lions are facing off this week, it’s certainly relevant to bring up again. So why, with similar changes in offensive philosophy, are Michigan and Penn State having such radically different success?

Quarterbacks
Steven Threet is not a world-beater in terms of talent, but on the other hand, neither is Daryll Clark. Clark, however, is a run-pass threat far more suited to a spread-option attack than is Threet. In fact, Rich Rodriguez recruited Clark out of prep school when he was still at West Virginia. Speaking of prep school, Clark is a 4th-year junior, with an additional year of high school under his belt in order to qualify for college. Threet is but a second-year freshman, who required no such additional schooling (he was class valedictorian from Adrian). Regardless of recruiting rankings, Clark has far more experience than Threet.

In terms of the players they replace, Chad Henne is Michigan’s career passing leader in several categories. Threet would have to be lights-out to even be just one step down. Clark, on the other hand, steps in for underachiever Anthony Morelli, who was never sniffed by the NFL. He can certainly be considered a substantial step up.

Coaching
Where Penn State’s coaching situation is the embodiment of continuity, Michigan’s staff has just one coach, Fred Jackson, who was with the team last year. Penn State can change its formations and some of its plays, but the terminology and teacher are consistent for every member of the team. At Michigan, on the other hand, nearly everything was different. The Wolverines didn’t even use shotgun sets last year, except in some 3rd down situations and the Citrus Bowl. Vocabulary, practice routines, and the offensive philosophy itself are completely different. Penn State even ran a version of its offense three years ago, so several of the more experienced players have even run it in their time at Beaver Stadium.

Talent and Experience
This category may be the greatest difference between Michigan and Penn State this year. Whereas the Wolverines came in having to replace 4 starters along the offensive line (including two with remaining eligibility), Penn State had only one player to replace. PSU’s wide receivers are in their fourth consecutive year as starters in the same unit. Though some of the role players in the receiving corps has changed, this is year four of the Butler, Norwood, and Williams show. At the running back position, Penn State has Evan Royster, the team’s oft-deployed backup from a year ago.

Michigan lost its top two receivers from a year ago, both of whom had eligibility left. They also lost the team’s all-time leading rusher, who carried the team on his back. Without Mike Hart last year, the Wolverines’ run game was something resembling pathetic. There was no reason for intense optimism coming into this year, as true freshman Sam McGuffie is the starter, and oft-injured Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown are the only players with any experience who return.
The Takeaway
This is not meant to be an excuse for Michigan’s season thus far, but rather an explanation of why Penn State is having so much more success than Michigan. Coming into the year, I think anyone who really paid attention could have seen it coming, and now we understand why the Nittany Lions are succeeding where Michigan has failed.

Posted under Football

Everyone knew Michigan was going to struggle this year. Maybe nobody thought the Wolverines would fall to Toledo, but everyone except the most fanatically-blind Michigan supporters knew that a Big Ten title was likely out of the question, and a bowl game might be a reasonable goal. There was always the future to look forward to. A year of learning under the spread system. A year of Barwis. A good 2009 recruiting class. The future was looking bright, because Michigan fans certainly weren’t planning to bail after one trying year under Rich Rodriguez. The members of that 2009 recruiting class, on the other hand? Some may not stick around to help clean up the carnage.

There are competing schools of thought on the link between winning and success on the recruiting trail. On one hand, you have the fans who hope prospects see the opportunity to come in and compete right away (and, realistically, some recruits do follow this train of thought). On the other side, one can find those who think a recruit will want to stay as far away as possible from anything that could be perceived as a “sinking ship” (again, some recruits think this, as well).

I personally think, from my trials and tribulations in following recruiting, that there is something of a hybrid between these two schools of thought. We’ll start when a recruit is young. If a child grows up watching a program succeed regularly, he might become something of a fan of that program. More likely, however, it may become “familiar” to him, if only on the most shallow name-recognition basis. Actual wins and losses (of course, except in the case where a recruit grows up a diehard fan of a certain program) probably don’t really become a factor until a high schooler becomes something of a potential recruit. Once a young man realizes that he might have an opportunity to play division 1 football (brother), the attention becomes a little more focused on the programs who might be potential destinations. This typically happens around a prospect’s junior year.

Senior year, however, is not likely a time for recruits to radically alter their perceptions of a program. If a team struggles during the 2008 season (this is completely hypothetical, of course), a young quarterback from San Diego or Wichita Falls (again, completely hypothetical, and I randomly selected those cities) will see that as an opportunity to come in and compete for a starting position right away. This is especially true of those hypothetical recruits who intend to hypothetically enroll early hypothetically. Hypothetically. Only the more loosely-committed players, or those who look at depth charts and realize that, although there is playing time up for grabs, it is not at their position, are the ones who might be swayed from the 2009 class.

So, who might fall into the category for this class? Bryce McNeal, Brandin Hawthorne, Anthony Fera, and DeWayne Peace have taken or plan to take visits elsewhere, along with former commitment William Campbell. DeQuinta Jones has been heard from very little since he committed, and his status is a virtual mystery to Michigan fans. As long as Michigan’s coaches continue to do a good job recruiting these players, they should retain those that they want. McNeal seems to be the most likely to decommit at this time.

So, let’s bring this back to the 2010 recruiting class. If high school juniors see a program lose, and form their perception from that, it means Michigan’s 2010 class could be pretty bad, right? Well, yes and no. Michigan already has 2 commits, both of whom are likely to be 4-star or 5-star prospects. A third is presumably on the way, another 4-star or better player. All three of these players have Michigan ties from long before their junior years of high school, and their perception of the Wolverines isn’t bound to change radically. Joining a class of highly-ranked prospects is one of the antidotes to a less-than-stellar year. Jeremy Jackson, Ricardo Miller, and hopefully Marvin Robinson all will be an incentive for other good recruits to join the class.

This may be one of the factors in some of the more inexplicably-good recruiting classes in recent memory. Notre Dame can sell its tradition, but one would think a 3-9 year would deter top prospects from joining the class of 2008 in South Bend. At the end of the day, however, the Irish finished with the #2 class in the nation. The only team that finished ahead of the Irish? Alabama, a team that had a recent history of mediocrity, despite its history. Nick Saban, in his second year in Tuscaloosa, and coming off a 7-6 record that didn’t exactly scream “WOO PROGRAM ON THE RISE” pulled in a stellar group of players to help turn the Tide’s fortunes around.

So, can Michigan, with its young, exciting coach pull in top classes in 2009 and 2010, despite a 2008 season that will likely end well below .500? The recruits aren’t stuck with Michigan, but we fans are hoping that Rich Rod can keep the snake oil flowing.

Posted under Coaching, Recruiting

The 2010 Board lives here.

New Information:
FL RB Jakhari Gore. He was on academic suspension from playing football last week. Might Michigan try to avoid an academic liability? He;s probably a lock to Tha U anyway.
MI TE Colin Voss. At this time, it appears he is more of a basketball prospect than football.
FL OL Jose Jose. Fluff about his being slightly less massive.
VA DT Derrick Hopkins. VT is likely his early leader. His older brother is committed to their class of 2009.
PA DE Darius Frantz. Has been playing with a broken hand his junior year.
PA LB Mike Hull. Something I had not previously realized: his dad went to PSU, and is something of a big deal. He would get a frowny face if I were into the MGoBlog smiley face thing.
FL S Marvin Robinson. Michigan is still considered the favorite. “Scout.com: Will Robinson be #3 in 2010?” This is the sort of headline that is almost always answered “yes” (with as much certainty as possible) within the article.
TX CB Adrian White. He has a Texas offer. Usually the Longhorns snatch up whomever they want in-state, so take this as a sign that he’ll probably end up in burnt orange.

Removed:
MI LB Max Bullough. In the shocker of the century, he commits to MSU.
FL S/Ath Matt Elam. The state’s #1 junior has committed to Florida. This article on the matter implies that Chris Dunkley and De’Joshua Johnson are likely to end up gators as well.

Etc.:
Frequent commenter “i know nothing” helped me find a set of 2010 in-state rankings for Florida. I’ve taken it into account, (along with SoFlaFootball’s 2010 rankings for the tri-county area), and when I re-configure somewhat, several of the prospects’ star ratings will be adjusted, and I’ll also add a bit of player information about them. Biggest surprise: Ricardo Miller is now looking like a lock to get 5 stars, save for the requisite hatred from being an early commit to an out-of-state school.

A bunch of 2010 guys visit Alabama.

Alex Shelton also wrote in to correct me on the name of Michael Dyer’s school. It is “Little Rock Christian,” not “Walnut Valley Christian” as it had previously been on the board. It shall be fixed soon.

Analysis:
Bullough and Elam aren’t surprises to their respective schools. A lot of guys are on the board for the sake of being all-encompassing, rather than who is actually highly likely to end up committing to Michigan. They will be weeded out by their commitments to other schools.

Posted under Recruiting