If you know of an article that can help out, let me know. I’ll fill in the remaining game articles/stats as I find the articles. The 2010 commits will not be included in FNL (unless there is substantial demand for it), but I will include a junior season wrap at the end of this year. No info found yet for the Cass game, but I’ll update when I come across it. I assume Thomas Gordon did not play following last week’s shoulder injury.

CA QB Tate Forcier
This Week: Scripps Ranch v. University City. Scripps wins 44-34.
Season Totals: Scripps Ranch: 4-1.

Season Totals: Pius 4-1.

Posted under Recruiting

Action since last rankings:
10-5-08 Iowa gains commitment from Scott Covert.
10-6-08 Wisconsin gains commitment from Conor O’Neill. Purdue gains commitment from Eric McDaniel.
10-7-08 Michigan State gains commitment from Denicos Allen 3*LB
10-9-08 Notre Dame gains commitment from Zeke Motta.

New Rankings:

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Posted under Recruiting

The Board lives here. Going against the requests of commenters, I’m going to split up 2009 and 2010 updates for now. I think the main fear was that I would be giving less information as a result, but I think it will allow me to give more information on each class.

New Information:
MD RB Tavon Austin. Sets the state rushing record.
MN WR Commit Bryce McNeal. Planning to take visits elsewhere. This includes Florida (info in headers). His commitment appears to be soft, so keep an eye on him.
OH OL Marcus Hall. Selected for the Army Game. Michigan is likely on the outside looking in at his recruitment, however.
MD DE Jason Ankrah. Enjoyed Michigan visit.
MD LB Jelani Jenkins. Fluff relating to the ESPN2 game last week.
GA S/QB Donavan Tate. Plans on officially visiting Michigan. Odds of his choosing football over baseball are still pretty slim.
MD CB Travis Hawkins. Standard post-visit positivity towards Michigan (info in header). Similar vibes here (link same as above).
FL CB Angelo Hadley. Michigan is in his final four.

Removed:
VA DE Will Hill. He is down to a final group that does not include Michigan, after canceling a UM visit last weekend.

Etc.:
Is that a potential walk-on I’m sensing?

Analysis:
Very Maryland-centric update today. Hawkins and Ankrah both seemed to really dig the Ann Arbor experience. Bryce McNeal’s softening of commit status is somewhat troubling, though I still expect that he ends up in blue.

Posted under Recruiting

When I previewed Toledo in the summer, it appeared as though they may be one of the very few easy games for Michigan in 2008. The Rockets have gone 1-4 so far, with the lone victory coming against the moribund Eagles of Eastern Michigan. We spoke to Jason Mack of the Independent Collegian to give us the latest on the Rockets, and it doesn’t really look like Toledo should be too great a challenge for Michigan. However, if Michigan has shown one thing this year, it’s that there are no sure things for the 2008 Wolverines.

Offense
The Rockets are 66th in the nation in scoring offense, despite putting up 41 on Eastern Michigan in 54 on Fresno State (in 2 overtimes). They were blanked against Ball State (a fringe top-25 team, but one known for its offense, not stellar D), and put up 16 points in games against Arizona and a 3-score loss(!) to Florida International(!!). Aaron Opelt is the Rockets’ starter, passing for 869 yards so far on 166 attempts (5.23 ypa). Most of his passes have gone to junior Stephen Williams and senior Nick Moore. On the ground, DaJuane Collins and Morgan Williams have gotten the lion’s share of carries. Collins appears to be infinitely better than Williams, averaging 7.42 ypc on far fewer carries than those on which Williams is netting 4.11 ypc. Collins missed the FIU game and was limited against Ball State.

In short, the Rockets aren’t exceptional on offense. They run a pass-oriented scheme with lots of spread formations. Regardless, they haven’t spread the ball around much, and haven’t put up tons of points on anyone. Michigan will be by far the best defense they have faced this year. However, they run a lot of quick passes which may neutralize the Wolverines’ advantage in the trenches.

Defense
Toledo is 89th in rush defense and 109th in pass efficiency defense. This is bad. Considering the competition they’ve played, which includes such offensive juggernauts as Eastern Michigan (to whom they gave up about 130 yards passing and rushing, which is below their season average), and Florida International (to whom they gave up 98 yards passing (40 yards below FIU’s season average) and 141 yards rushing (55 yards more than FIU’s season average) – and still managed to give up 35 points). So, the defense isn’t great. Or good. Or passable.

Michigan’s run game should have another opportunity to get itself moving. We’ll see if that actually happens. If it doesn’t, predict pain for the rest of the year.

Predictions
Michigan gains more fumbles than it gives away(!).
The Wolverines have 3 rushers go over 50 yards.
Michigan wins, 34-9.

Posted under Analysis

Round 2.

The Situation
Illinois leads Michigan, 31-20 with about 9 minutes left in the game. After starting strong, the Michigan offense has sputtered, but finally got back on the board on its last drive. In spite of a questionable pass interference call on John Thompson, Michigan has Illinois in a 3rd-and-2 situation on their own 49 yard line. A stop here could help continue Wolverine momentum, and give the Wolverines a chance to get back into the game.

The Personnel and Formation

Illinois comes out in a 3-wide spread set, with a tight end on the right side of the line. Two wideouts are to the left. Isiah Williams is in the shotgun, with Daniel Dufrene lined up as the running back to his left. Michigan’s base 3-4 has a linebacker (John Thompson) on the line to the slot receiver side. Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are centered over the line, which consists of the standard starters (Graham, Taylor, Johnson, and Jamison). The secondary is composed of Brandon Harrison, Stevie Brown, Donovan Warren, and Morgan Trent.

The Play

Juice Williams runs a quarterback draw, running right into the heart of Michigan’s strong defensive line. This should be a stop by Michigan, but Williams manages to scamper 50 yards down the field, before he is run down from behind by Stevie Brown at the 1 yard line. Michigan’s defensive play is a blitz of the weakside of the formation by Thompson, with the line clogging things up and the other two linebackers playing the run. The secondary mans up on the receivers.

Why it Worked
Brandon Graham and Jonas Mouton seem to both be to blame for Juice getting loose (damnit, I was going to avoid saying that). Michigan’s defensive play seems to be for the defensive line to plug up the middle, with the linebackers freed up to make plays near the line of scrimmage. Graham gets greedy, however, and gives up his inside position when it appears that Juice will try to go around the edge. This frees up a gap for Williams to head through. Mouton should be there, but he was also fooled by Juice, and has rushed to the outside to play contain. However, it appears as though his responsibility was not contain, as Brandon Harrison has filled the same gap. Mouton and Graham were both supposed to be in position to stop Juice here, and considering that neither was, it’s easy to see why he got free.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis, Video

The Situation
Michigan leads Illinois 14-10 with about 11 minutes remaining in the second quarter. The Illini have the ball in a 2nd-and-10 situation on their own 43 yard line. Michigan’s offense has been clicking early in the game, and a big stop on Illinois’s potential go-ahead drive would sustain the Wolverine momentum, and possibly springboard another Michigan scoring drive.

The Personnel and Formation

Illinois comes out in a 3-wide spread set, with a tight end on the right side of the line. Two wideouts are to the left. Isiah Williams is in the shotgun, with Daniel Dufrene lined up as the running back to his left. Michigan is running out of its 3-4 Okie nickel package. The corners are playing off, and Charles Stewart is the high safety along with Brandon Harrison. Stevie Brown, Jonas Mouton, Obi Ezeh, and John Thompson are the linebackers. Mike Martin is the pass-rushing DT.

The Play

Michigan is in a cover-3, with both OLBs blitzing. At the snap, John Thompson blitzes, allowing Daniel Dufrene to run right by him. This is unfortunate for Thompson and the Michigan defense at large, as this play is a designed screen (not quite a swing pass, as The Davids – ESPN’s shittiest new announce team – state). Williams lofts the ball over Thompson’s head, and Dufrene makes the catch. He follows his screen blockers, breaks a couple early tackle attempts, and outruns the Wolverines to the endzone.

Why it Worked
John Thompson is the major culpable party in Illinois’s success on this play. In Shafer’s scheme, he is designated to blitz on this play, but has the responsibility to “hug up” on Dufrene if he leaks out of the backfield. It is plain to see Thompson realizes his mistake, as he has an “oh shit” moment, and turns around when he realizes Dufrene has passed him.

This was an effective play call against a blitz, and of course the responsibilities of the blitzers are supposed to compensate for this. Thompson’s fuckup amplified the effectiveness of the playcall.

It’s hard to fault him too much, since he was making sure there weren’t huge cutback lanes in the secondary, but Donovan Warren starts off this play taking a terrible angle. He almost manages to still catch up with Dufrene, and had he taken a better angle, might have stopped this 5-10 yards short of the endzone.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis, Video

Hosted by The Only Game that Matters.

1) Jay Paterno and the Spread HD

What is: maybe JayPa isn’t that bad after all, and Anthony Morelli is just clinically retarded? Obviously, he knows how to craft a functioning offense of some sort. Maybe it was Morelli, not Jay holding the team back in 2006 and 2007.

2) Joe Tiller’s Mustache

What is: the inspiration for Danny Hope’s Mustache?

3) The Color Purple

Please see this video, 15 seconds in:

4) Brains

What is: Joe Paterno’s entire diet? Oh, and Ovaltine. Brains and Ovaltine, yummy.

5) Hawkeye State

Is this supposed to be some sort of reference to Iowa? Hey, I answered in the form of a question and I didn’t even mean to! Either way, both teams in the state of Iowa kinda suck.

6) Rudy

Who is: Shitty midget?

7) Knee Ligaments

What is: the least functional portion of Sean Lee’s body?
(Note: I said least functional, not least used. Interpret that as you will).

8) Terrell Pryor

Why am: I fucking terrified of Ohio State?

9) Mark May

Who is: someone who only appears intelligent because he is alongside Lou Holtz.

10) Rich Rodriguez

Who is: going to terrorize the big Ten within a few years (I hope)?

Posted under Analysis

Posted under Recruiting

1. After the Wisconsin game, fans were jubilant, and expected that Michigan’s offense had finally, permanently snapped out of whatever funk it was in to start the season.

Following Illinois, the exact opposite describes the popular sentiment among Michigan fans.

What’s the real Michigan offense? Somewhere in between. A young unit is going to be very streaky, and as the players gain experience (and guys like Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway return to replace LaTerryal Savoy), the consistency will improve, but it will never operate at the level it was toward the end of the Wisconsin game, at least not on a consistent basis.

2. The rain of fumbles will slow down, even if is isn’t completely eliminated this year. Unless Michigan’s coaches are idiots (and they aren’t), or the players are just terrible (they aren’t), Michigan will not continue to fumble at the rate it has been to this point in 2008. The coaches will work in practice, and seeing as how fumbles are a (mostly) chance occurrence, they will happen with less frequency.

If Michigan is not playing from behind, the players will also force plays less often, and risk ball security in the process.

3. The Michigan defense might not be quite as good as it looked during the Wisconsin game. It might not be quite as bad as it looked during the Illinois game. The real Michigan defense? You guessed it, somewhere right in between.

Coming off an emotional performance against Wisconsin, in which they were on the field for more than 36 minutes, perhaps the defenders were ripe for a letdown performance. After such a physical performance last week, it’s understandable (but no excuse) why there were some missed tackles this week. Regardless, they held Illinois to just 24 points through 3 quarters, but they are not yet ready to carry the offense in every game, especially when they have to overcome 5 fumbles (with 2 lost).

4. Steven Threet actually had a decent game, aside from the fumbled exchange with Shaw, and the pump fake fumble. He had a QB rating of 130.3, which would have been better save a few drops. Running, he wasn’t quite as good as Michigan needed him to be, but there’s always the future for improvement.

5. Despite the losses, Illinois is a pretty darn good team. If Michigan can play as well as they did today (certainly on defense) for the rest of the year, only Penn State and Ohio State are likely to light up the scoreboard as much as the Illini did.

So what does it all mean? Michigan isn’t that good. But you know what? Maybe they aren’t that bad, either. At this point, there’s not much fans can do besides hope for a bowl.

Posted under Coaching

Moved to Committed:

Posted under Recruiting