I haven’t had a chance to re-watch and score the data for these three games, but that shouldn’t prevent me from posting the (admittedly late) differential data. When I get a chance to grade the shooting, I’ll post those up as well.

Iowa

Half 1

Half 2

OT

Purdue

Half 1

Half 2

Wisconsin

Half 1

Half 2

Individual differentials will be posted when I get the shooting data up; for now you can add them up yourself if you’re so inclined.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Following Michigan’s official-aided choke job in Iowa City last night, the chances of this edition of the Michigan Wolverines are all but eliminated. Of course, if the Wolverines were to go on a run to end the season, taking at least 2 of the last 3 and one in the Big Ten Tournament, they would have a very legitimate argument. However, Last night’s game was considered a must-win because it was the only likely win left on the year. How did it happen?

Michigan actually got pretty good shooting throughout the first half, and in spurts during the second. When David Merritt hit two 3-pointers in one game, I thought the fates were smiling upon Michigan. Then, Manny Harris gets an egregious no-call with under a minute left, followed up with an egregiously bad call against DeShawn Sims on the rebound. Iowa is able to tie the game with free throws, and take it to overtime. Once they got there, hot shooting from them, and poor shooting from Michigan, aided in large part due to Manny Harris’s being benched (more on that later) and poor shot selection, led to a Hawkeye victory.

Officiating
I honestly don’t know what Manny Harris did to just about every referee in the Big Ten (and nation), but nobody is officiated more unfairly (at least in a negative way) than Harris. He can’t draw a blocking foul to save his life, as evidenced by perhaps the worst-called charging foul of Michigan’s season, when Iowa’s defender wasn’t even remotely close to being in position, and what should have been an and-1 for Harris turned into a 3-pointer for Iowa on the other end, keeping the Hawkeyes in the first half early. A similarly awful no-call happened near the end of regulation, where Harris was completely mugged going to the rack, and even Iowa fans were completely dumbfounded that there was no call. Compounding the incompetency of the officials, they called a horrid foul on DeShawn Sims (instead of what should have been a jump ball), effectively handing the game on a plate to Iowa.

Of course, officials aren’t perfect, and the Wolverines het their share of bad calls as well, but it’s the impact of the calls that go against Michigan that has killed us this year. The charge on Harris changed the game, because if it was called as it (quite obviously) should have been, Michigan starts turning that game into a blowout. The no-call and bad call at the end of regulation decided who would win the game, something that shouldn’t have happened. When bad calls go both ways, but the bad calls against Michigan effectively render the best player on the floor useless, it’s going to hurt one team far more than the other.

As for the “don’t whine about the officials, because the game shouldn’t have been that close in the first place” argument, that’s bullshit. Things happen that cause games to be close, even when they shouldn’t be (and let’s not forget that one call fairly early in the game likely dictated that it would be a close one). Regardless of whether the game “should” be close or not, it was. The officials, through their incompetence, then decided who would win the game. That’s unfair, either way.

Harris Benched in OT
Manny sat on the bench through the entire overtime period, leading to rampant speculation among Michigan fans and even the announce team for BTN. Nobody really knows the true answer, except it probably had something to do with a) Manny being ineffective late in regulation b) Manny saying something unwise towards John Beilein c) Manny feeling like he couldn’t contribute to the team, and/or d) Beilein feeling like Manny couldn’t contribute to the team.

Before all the armchair coaches slam Beilein for “the worst coaching decision of his career,” think about that. His career spans every single level of basketball, and multiple decades as a head coach. He knows more about basketball than any of you. He probably knows more about basketball than most of you put together. Dude knows what he’s doing, and you don’t. End of Story.

The Upshot
As mentioned above, Michigan’s bubble status has moved from “likely to be in” to “in big trouble.” The game against Purdue is one of the last chances to prove they belong, and the final two road games are important as well. This team is growing, and there is no reason to give up on them now. They weren’t expected to make the tournament when the season began (perhaps not even the postseason), so even if they fall to the NIT, I know I’ll be in Crisler Arena, cheering my ass off for them. Will You?

Minnesota and Iowa UFRs (perhaps abbreviated) coming later this week.

Posted under Basketball

Also available on MGoBlog and UMHoops. Things should get rolling shortly before the game begins.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tonight at the awkward start time of 5PM. The game takes place in Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Cyrus Tate didn’t play for the Hawkeyes, and the Wolverines left Crisler Arena with a dominating victory. Manny was Manny, DeShawn was DeShawn, and this was one of the first glimpses that Michigan fans got of CJ Lee-as-defensive-specialist, a role that has seen his playing time increse dramatically over the last few games. The roleplayer that stepped up in that game was Zack Novak, who drilled a few shots from the outside, and did his scrappy undersized white guy thing. The final score of 64-49 was even a little closer than the game felt.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s offense has been on a fairly continuous downward spiral. Part of that is better competition, and part of it is simply a young team with very little depth. Two things are encouraging though, and they are an improvement on defense and a stellar offensive performance against Minnesota, a team that has relied on its own defense lately. If the offensive renaissance can become a trend, rather than a one-time deal, Michigan fans will feel much better about the rest of the season.

Iowa has gotten slightly worse in most respects, largely due to Cyrus Tate’s continued absence from the team. Tate played some minutes in Iowa’s recent game against Purdue, but his ankle is still not nearly 100%, and it’s unclear whether he’ll even play, much less be the effective player he is when healthy. Guard Jeff Peterson has also battled injuries of late, and it’s unclear whether he will play.

And…?

If Tate and Peterson are both out, or even limited in a big way, this is a game the Wolverines have no business losing. Even if the two play, Michigan needs this win for their tournament hopes to stay alive in any big way, while Iowa’s season is mostly lost, unless they can scrape together an NIT bid over their last 5 games.One key factor to note: The Hawkeyes have had 8 days of rest for this game, allowing them to prepare in-depth for anything Michigan might throw at them, and also giving them a little time to get healthy.

Despite Michigan’s (slightly) improved play of late, and Iowa’s implosion (2-9 in their last 11), KenPom predicts a 59-58 Iowa win in a 56-possession game. The stakes are obvious, and Michigan fans should tune in to hopefully watch their Wolverines get one step closer to a return to the NCAA tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

The raw data is available in .xls format here. On individual player charts, the time played is now from the boxscore, rather than adding up to the second each player’s time played.

Half 1

Half 2

Game totals

Individual players:

He got an and-1 on one of those fouls in the lane. Manny did what he needs to do for the team, though his hesitation in putting up 3s has really started to annoy me.

Showed some flashes of being able to get to the hoop and draw contact. That will be important down the stretch.

Didn’t shoot the ball much, but he made some defensive plays (along the lines of CJ Lee), and did a good job rebounding, considering he’s 6-5 and playing power forward.

It seemed ike he took (and made) a ton more midrange shots than he actually apparently did. Pretty good day, though he didn’t pull in double-digit boards.

Did what he needs to do. Actually nailed a layup.

Struggled mightily If this is how he plays with almost no post presence on the other team, how will he compete against Goran Suton? BJ Mullens?

WOOO PULS!

Didn’t nail his 3-balls, and his only make was an easy layup on a good cut.

Scrappy, former walk-on, etc. Did a lot more than shoot.

What This Says…

Douglass and Gibson are the only guys who played actual minutes (i.e. not garbage time) who logged negative differentials. I think this surprises nobody. Gibson really struggled today, and Douglass is the lesser of the two freshmen.

This team has so much more success when they don’t take all their shots from three. DeShawn Sims is a major weapon from midrange, and both Manny (obviously) and LLP are able to get to the hoop and draw contact, if not just get their score on. CJ Lee was the team’s MVP, though, despite an unspectacular differential. He made hustle plays left and right, most of which won’t show up in the boxscore.

The story of the day was not the offense (rendering this little exercise at least partially moot), but the stellar defense that the team played. The 1-3-1 forced myriad turnovers, and the team was able to get a few in man as well. They were really playing tenaciously, and I think when they have some success on the offensive side of the court, it inspires them to play better defense (in addition to allowing them to play more 1-3-1).

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Nice, dominating perofrmance by the Wolverines today in Crisler Arena. After struggling on the road against bottom-dweller Indiana, it was nice to see this team get its feet back under and finally dominate from start to finish in a way that they hadn’t in quite some time.

Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims were their usual sleves, for better or for worse. This time, Manny was hitting the 3-ball after his hesitation “move,” though he did brick a dunk in the first half (oops). DeShawn was money from inside the arc for most of the day (as usual), and had a few awesome rebounds (including a one-hander as he was getting fouled on the other arm). These guys are clearly the most talented guys on the team, and they showed that they can get it done in the Big Ten.

Zack Novak and CJ Lee are entirely different types of players, but each should be singled out for his effort on this day. CJ was constantly getting in passing lanes and disrupting the Iowa offense, he had a few steals, and even got a little offense of his own. Novak nails big shots left and right, but it’s the little things that really help. He puts in some of the best effort on the team, making deflections and getting rebounds despite playing the power forward position at only 6-5.

Kelvin Grayd made a layup, Eric Puls nailed a long bomb, and even Anthony Wright and Jevohn Shepherd got a bit of playing time. It was a good day. However, it is important to keep in mind that this Iowa team is not expected to finish near the top of the conference standings, and they were without one of their best players (and by far their best rebounder) today. Optimism is good, but a dominating win over a mediocre Iowa team on this day is no reason to let said optimism run wild.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tomorrow morning at 11:30 in Crisler Arena (10:30AM in Iowa City – how’s that for an advantage?). The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

On paper, this looks to be a very tough game for Michigan. Each team shoots a lot of threes, though Iowa makes many more of them. After a horrific outing at Indiana, most of the Wolverines’ offensive stats have gotten slightly worse. Surprisingly given the first half against the Hoosiers, the defensive rankings have actually gotten better. Looking at the gameplans, Michigan’s offensive performance will be reliant on their ability to make shots. Given their struggles against Indiana, this may be no easy feat. However, the Hawkeyes, like the Wolverines, field a very short team – and that was before Cyrus Tate hurt himself playing against Minnesota on Thursday. Perhaps the Manny Harris method of getting to the basket will be a little more effective, and he’ll be able to draw a foul or two (and actually get them called, for once). Iowa’s lack of size (and 3-point-heavy style) is evidenced by the fact that Michigan actually has a fairly sizeable advantage in rebounding the Hawkeyes’ misses. Iowa will make plenty of those shots though, and Michigan will have to take care of the ball (something they’ve certainly shown they can do) in order to get a win. The right column of the ledger above doesn’t tell the whole story: Michigan was close to getting a third “M” in the turnover column, a second in defensive rebounding(!!), while the Hawkeyes just missed getting a second in their advantage shooting the ball. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 63-60 win in a slow (56 possession) game.

Iowa’s key players are guard Jeff Peterson, who leads the team in assists and getting to the free throw line, freshman forward Matt Gatens, who leads the team in offensive rating and three-point shooting, and forward Cyrus Tate, the team’s lone senior. The 6-8 Tate is by far the team’s best rebounder on both ends of the floor, and he suffered an ankle injury in the first half against the Golden Gophers Thursday. He didn’t return to that game, and even if he does play tomorrow, it’s unclear exactly how effective he’ll be. If he’s limited, Michigan actually has a shot to outrebound their opponent for one of the few times this year – which would go a long way towards helping win.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

With Michigan idle during the bowl season, I’ll take a little closer of a look at the rest of the Big Ten. Let’s start today with Iowa v. Northwestern.

Lake the Posts, poster-blog for “hey give us respect, guys!” posting, has yet another issue with not getting what the Cats “deserve.” 8-4 Iowa has been selected to the Outback Bowl over the 9-3 Wildcats, who also hold a head-to-head victory on the season. Well, for once there may be a legitimate gripe here. Let’s take a look at the resumes:

Neither resume is particularly impressive, and they’re fairly hard to differentiate at this point (aside form the head-to-head win). Let’s break it down further.

Northwestern gets the non-conference nod, though it’s slightly skewed because they didn’t lose a non-conference game, whereas Iowa lost to the only legit opponent either team played. Northwestern’s crappy non-con schedule gets a bump of one spot at each position. If you were to sort just by quality of opposition, ignoring win/loss record, Iowa’s slate would take Northwestern’s behind the woodshed.

Overall, the resumes are very similar, but Iowa’s seems to be better on the whole, despite the head-to-head loss and the slightly worse record. The common opponents occupy a high slot on Northwestern’s resume, and their wins were eith
er comparable or not as impressive. In loss, Iowa was competitive in every game they played (and let’s not even get into how they should have beaten both Michigan State and Pitt), whereas Northwestern was either getting blown out by good teams, or losing to Indiana, of all teams.

Posted under Football