In the wake of Michigan getting into the NCAA Tournament, I called up college basketball Jamie Mac from MGoBlog Diary Fame.  We discussed the recent history  of Michigan basketball and what exactly this bid means for the program.

Enjoy!

 

 Big Dance Podcast 09 [30:52m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Posted under Basketball, Blogcast

First of all, if you haven’t already checked out the video Dylan posted, you should take some time and do so now.

Done? Alright. A few people have asked me how full Crisler was. There were probably between 1500 and 2000 people all sitting in the lower bowl on the East sideline. That area was pretty full, a few seats here or there, but fairly packed. Apparently, Beilein dind’t originally intend on doing a big event, but as he walked around and saw the cheerleaders’ and managers’ and students’ excitement, he realized that this meant a lot to the entire Michigan community. I’m glad he came to his realization, because it really was a special moment, and it was awesome to experience it with that many other people.

Our good friends at WOLV Student Television were there covering the event. For those of you who don’t know, this blog started out as a companion blog for the show Tim produced about Michigan football. Luckily, we’re still close with WOLV, and they were nice enough to share some pictures:

Furthermore, if you’d like to see some video of the celebration and some interviews, WOLV’s very own Kaitlin Urka put together this piece on the Selection Show event:

Thanks to WOLV for the media, and if you’re in the dorms you can catch original WOLV programming on channel 55.

Posted under Basketball, Photo Album

I vaguely remember parts of Michigan’s last NCAA Tournament game.  I was 12 at the time, but I still remember a gigantic man in maize at the free throw line with Michigan down by 3 to UCLA.  He had to make his first and miss his second.

I can’t remember how that game ended, except that Michigan was not able to win. I certainly didn’t understand what happened over the next few years as it came to light how much was wrong with the Michigan Basketball program.

Fisher left and Traylor picked Brian Ellerbe to be the replacement. Traylor left the following and Michigan truly began it’s decade of aimless wandering.  The teams and the players Ellerbe brought in couldn’t capture my interest, even though basketball has always been my favorite sport.  I really like Bernard Robinson Jr. and LaVell Blanchard, but they weren’t enough to get me into Michigan basketball.  In 2001 it looked like we might turn the corner.

Tommy Amaker was a hot coaching prospect. He had a good pedigree with his history at Duke and he took Seton Hall to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2002 he brought in Daniel Horton, Lester Abrams, Amadou Ba, Sharrod Harrel, Graham Brown and Chris Hunter. Horton beat out Dee Brown at Illinois for Big Ten Rookie of the year.  There was another great class brought in the next year.

There was a lot of excitement for these teams, and they often looked like they could make the tournament. I remember after they won the 2004 NIT people were talking about how Michigan won the 1984 NIT and then went on to become a number 1 seed in 1985.  That didn’t happen.

Amaker had six years and couldn’t get in the tournament with talent that has become the NBA Developmental League All-Star team.  I was surprised when it was announced that Amaker would no longer be the coach. I figured there would be one more year with the coming freshman class of Kelvin Grady, Manny Harris and Alex Legion.  Bill Martin decided to make a bold move in firing Amaker and made an incredibly safe decision to hire a coach with over 30 years of head coaching experience.

The first season was the painful square peg and round hole feeling that Michigan fans know a little too well by now.  The players didn’t look like they were getting the system, and some weren’t even trying.  In 2007, Michigan only won 10 games, and in many it looked like there was no way they could score.

Coming into this season, there were three seniors on the team, two of which started as walk ons.  There were 3 players over 6’9″, one red shirted, another played a total of about 10 minutes. At most points during the season Michigan started 2 freshman. Zack Novak was matched up against people 5 inches taller, 40 pounds heavier and with 3 more years of experience.  This should not be a tournament team.

Then Michigan beat UCLA. Most fans were brought back down to Earth by the Duke and Maryland games.  Then Michigan beat Duke and didn’t drop another out of conference game.  I had become used to Michigan dropping two or three games they shouldn’t have.  That didn’t happen. They made it to the conference season only losing to two good ACC teams.

The conference season was up and down, but the team was always in the game and always in the hunt for the Big Dance. They entered into their last four games needing to win two and they beat two tournament teams, Purdue and Minnesota.  The formula was then set: win one at the Big Ten Tournament and Michigan is likely in.  Michigan completely dominated Iowa, looking like they could beat anybody.  They then looked flat against a very efficient Illinois team.

The rational side of me had read all the great bubble breakdowns and knew that there is no reason Michigan shouldn’t be in, but at Crisler, with a few thousand other Michigan fans, I was still nervous. Coach Beilein didn’t reassure us with his pre-rally speech. It was good, but it had the sound of trying to cover the bases in case Michigan didn’t make it.

Once the show started, you could feel the crowed tense up just before every 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12 seed were announced. After each bracket, the fear grew. There were a lot of bubble teams that I didn’t think would make it that did. The crowd grew a bit nervous, and nearly exploded when Minnesota was announced as part of the field.

They had gone through the top half of the last bracket, and the spots for Michigan was down to 2. I was already gearing myself up for disappointed. “If NCAA refs have been screwing over Michigan all year, why shouldn’t the NCAA selection committee?”.

Then Michigan was announced as the 10 seed in the South Bracket taking on 7 seed Clemson in Kansas City. Then,  this happened:

There was a huge sense of release from the crowd. people were jumping up and down and hugging, and it lasted well after CBS has cut away.  Beilein thanked the coaches; David Merrit addressed the crowd; the players led the crowd in singing the Victors.  Beilein and the players left the court to do their media interviews, and I walked home unable to wipe the smile off my face.

As I was walking up my block, there were some people running in to check Southwest Airlines to see how much it would cost to fly out to Kansas City.  It’s like a curse that has left a seemingly permanent malaise was finally broken.  It doesn’t matter what happens in the NCAA Tournament. This team has done something that, on paper, better Michigan teams couldn’t.

There’s excitement for Michigan basketball again. There were more people at this announcement than were at the Eastern Michigan game last year.

Like John Beilein said: “Making the tournament is only the first step.”  A step that he was able take in two years. I can’t wait to see what happens in the next two years.

Posted under Basketball

The path had been set for a while.  Since home February 19th when Michigan beat Minnesota at home, the formula was set: win two of four and one in the Big Ten Tournament. After Iowa it didn’t look like it was going to happen, and then Michigan stunned Purdue and came back against Minnesota.

The stage was set for everything to come together.  They had to play then team that almost ruined the dream.  This time, they didn’t feel like letting the refs have any impact on the outcome.

Michigan could have stopped scoring with 16 minutes left in the second half and still won the game.  It was barely even a contest.

The variables are set and Michigan is in the Tournament.  Let’s think about this for second. In John Beilein’s second year, after only winning 10 games the previous year, with only about two and half players taller than 6’7″, Michigan is in the tournament.

The start of the game was everything a Michigan fan could hope for. The team fed DeShaun Sims every time down the court and got rewarded with Peedi scoring the first 14 points for the good guys.

They slowed down Sims a little (mainly because he went to the bench), but then the 3pt shots started to fall.  Michigan shot over 70% in the first half to Iowa’s mid 30%.  It was over at the half.

The second half was more of the same with Manny getting his rythm from 3.  Hopefully this will carry over to the Illinois game.  It’s not a must win, but this is the best I’ve seen this team play, and if they continue to play like this they can beat anyone in the Big Ten and a good number of teams in the national field.

Sims was owning a bigger player. The spacing was perfect. Manny was able to work some amazing pick and rolls with Peedi.  The defense forced 16 turn overs and was able to run out on most of them.  The only thing I can complain about this game is that Sims should have dunked more.

Michigan 73 – Iowa 45

Enjoy this game, and get out your dancing shoes!

Posted under Basketball

Near the end of the Ohio St. game, Zack Novak appeared to intentionally hit PJ Hill with an elbow in the face after a free throw attempt.  He was given a flagrant foul and ejected from the game. Coach Beilein announced that Novak will serve a one game suspension:

“We are taking swift and appropriate action with Zack for the unacceptable incident that occurred at Ohio State,” said Beilein. “After speaking with Zack, he understands the severity of his actions. He expressed regret and embarrassment for his behavior. I hope Zack will learn a valuable lesson from this imposed discipline.”

This seems like the appropriate response. People have made comparisons with the Conboy play on Kampfer. While there are common features, the biggest difference is that this is Zack’s first time pulling something like this while Conboy had a string of prior bad acts. Hopefully this was a one-off, gritty freshman mistake.  For those of you who like Jevhohn Sheppard, you’ll be seeing plenty of him against Purdue.

UPDATE: The Big Ten approves of the suspension. Here’s the commish:

“Zack Novak’s actions at the end of the Ohio State game are unacceptable and have no place in the sport of basketball or the Big Ten Conference,” Commissioner James E. Delany said. “We support Michigan’s implementation of a one-game suspension. Also, SEC sux, Big Ten rulez!*”

*He didn’t actually say that last part

Posted under Basketball

At some point during the first half of the basketball game against Duke, I decided that I was going to go to the basketball game against Eastern Michigan.  As opposed to previous years, I have actually enjoyed watching this team play.  They are generally likeable players who are well coached and play hard for the entire game.  I remember watching the teams with Horton, Hunter, Abrams, among others, trying to win games and do well, but failed by their coach.  Watching Tommy Amaker stand there and wave his finger as though that meant anything other than pass it around the perimeter then let Horton make a huge play was one of the most frustrating things to watch.

I saw flashes of the Beilein system last year and was really excited for the season this year.  This year with only a few new contributors (Novak and Douglass) Beilein has made this into a very entertaining and, more importantly,  competative team.  I’m committed now to attend as many games as I can.  Tim is probably going to head to the Big Ten Championship.  This is almost exclusively the result of Beilein’s coaching.  He has, in less time than I ever thought possible, made Michigan Basketball relevant on campus again.  Now there’s a plan for a new practice facility going before the Regents in January.  This is a program on the rise, and I can see Beilein getting Michigan getting this team all the way with the right personnel and a bit of luck.

Eastern Michigan Specifically

• The attendance was actually fairly impressive for a game where most of the students are either home or studying for exams.  Granted the fact that the “away” team was a defacto second home team and student tickets are free, but no way would this game be that well attended last year.
• It was kind of weird that they never announced at the game that Beilein wasn’t there.  I didn’t know until someone texted me.
• If you told me that Manny Harris would be held to 2 points in the first half and DeShawn Sims wasn’t all that effective either, no way I would have guessed that Michigan would have a 10 point lead.
• No one can stay in front of Kelvin Grady.  I actually look forward to seeing teams trying to press him.
• Manny Harris has this ability to get wherever he wants on the floor whenever he wants.  It’s a bit absurd how he can knife through  the defense.  It wasn’t just against Eastern, either; he was able to do it against UCLA and Duke.
• Jevohn Shepherd may be my favorite player on the team.  He doesn’t have the tools of Sims or Harris, but he’s gone from being an afterthought to a very solid contributor.  He even carried the team a while in the first half.
• The biggest applause of the game was when Lloyd Carr walked in during half time.

Posted under Basketball

Tim bought tickets for the Duke game on a whim earlier this year. Before the season started, we figured it would at least be a big game with national coverage. After the UCLA game, it started to look like it might be winnable. After the first Duke game, we figured the team could at least make a game of it.

I haven’t been to that many basketball games, but this was the best crowd I have ever seen at Crisler. There were times that it was absolutely ready to explode, but it rarely got to that next, euphoric level. There was a Novak three point attempt that just rimmed out, a Manny Harris missed dunk (which was a horrible no call), and a lot of other times Duke was able to come down and get a big basket. I know Tim and I felt impending doom, and it seemed like the crowd as a whole had that feeling. We all wanted to believe, but Michigan could never pull away and Duke kept hitting big shots.

What I thought really showed that this team has really gotten to the “next level” was the start of the second half. Duke went on a run and there were a 3 or 4 calls that went against Michigan (not all of them “bad” calls, but rather calls that could reasonably be no-calls). Duke got a bit of a lead and the “here we go again” feeling started setting in. Then, Michigan went on their own run. Novak hit a monster three-pointer from both corners, and Manny was able to knife through Duke’s defense and get to the basket. Suddenly Michigan was up 5 or so. Watching the Maryland game, I kept thinking that all they needed was a basket, stop and a basket to have a chance at winning that game. They weren’t able to do that, but at home, against Duke, they pulled together and stopped the run and put together one of their own. Duke didn’t seem to play particularly poorly either. They ran their offense efficiently and looked decent on defense.

A few random things:

• Manny Harris can’t be stopped. He seems to be able to get to the basket at will, regardless of who he’s playing against.
• DeShawn Simms was on fire in the first half and came up with some big offensive rebounds in the second half.
• Zack Novak is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. He is absolutely fearless shooting the ball.
• Did Anthony Wright even take a shot? Weird…
• I feel comfortable with Kelvin Grady breaking any press that’s thrown at him. He has great speed and some nice moves. He just needs to finish more consistently. He was clutch at the end.
• Rushing the court at the end of the game is completely acceptable. Tim and I didn’t participate (we were in the nosebleeds), but this is one of the biggest wins in the post-sanctions era.
• I wish I could have heard the interview between Bilas and Beilein. Awkward! The shot was absolutely awesome with Beilein in front of a bunch of crazy fans. Maybe this is a result of blogging, but our first thought was “this will be awesome for recruiting”

Posted under Basketball

Going into the game against UCLA, I figured it would be a idea to play a drinking game where you take a drink for every field goal made. For the first few minutes it looked like a good call as UCLA appeared to be creeping out to a big lead at 9-1. Then something weird happened.

The team last year at times looked confused in the 1-3-1 defense. They didn’t get to their spots in time, couldn’t recover on the swing. It looked like it wasn’t going to work. Against UCLA the 1-3-1 allowed Michigan to aggressively trap and force a ton of turnovers.

The hardest part about watching the Amaker years was the complete lack of fundamentals coaching, especially on the offensive end. Lazy passes, bad spacing, and no movement were the norm rather than the exception. In this game we saw great bounce passes to back-cutting players, exceptional spacing for our players to get to work, and good shooting from the outside. Beyond that, there were a lot of good shots that the players just couldn’t finish. Soon they’ll be able to get those shots to go down and we’ll have a very potent offense on our hands.

At the end of the game I was waiting for UCLA to come back and win. Being a Michigan fan, my experience in the recent past is often “get a glimmer of hope; get that violently beaten to death.” After UCLA made the 3pt shot to get it within one I could feel myself thinking “OK. This is it.” Then, Michigan was able to inbound the ball, not just to anybody, but to a very legitimate closer in “Manny” Harris (quick aside: is it weird that out of Corperryale Manny Harris it’s the Manny that gets the quotes?). I jumped up and started cheering. This was before Manny nailed the two free throws. From my years watching Amaker “coach” Michigan, I fully expected either a 5-seconds call or the ball being taken away on the inbounds. Instead, they got to Manny who got fouled with 4.6 seconds left. He walked to the line and sank two huge free throws like it was practice. UCLA gets a great inbounds pass almost all the way to half court and gets to the arc. The whole time I was yelling “foul him! for the love of all that is good and holy in this world foul him!’ Instead, Harris decides he’ll just block the attempt. Game over.

Sure, UCLA is probably overrated. They lost a ton of production last year, but they are still one of the better defensive teams out there and Michigan only had 10 turnovers. 10 turnovers to 15 assists against a team that usually plays lights out man-to-man defense. This team is turning the corner. I have no reason not to believe they have a shot at the tourney come March. If they can hang with and beat UCLA, there’s very few teams they don’t have a shot to beat. Before the UCLA game, I would have been happy with a barely above .500 season where the team looks good and hangs in tough against the big dogs, but now I think Michigan has a chance to do a lot of damage, especially in conference play once they get Lucas-Perry playing.

The kids seem like they believe they can make the Tournament. I know Beilein believes they can do it. They know a hell of a lot more about their chances then I do. So, I guess get ready for March Madness.

Posted under Football

…but our coaches aren’t. On top of Rich Rodriguez’s ongoing lawsuit deliberations with West Virginia University, Coach John Beilein is also paying the Mountaineers for his departure to Crisler Arena.

Don’t believe me? The Wizard of Odds has some proof (which they got from West By God Virginia, who, presumably got it from the source).

Perhaps interesting to note: The Bank of Ann Arbor, the institution that allows Beilein to write checks for more than a quarter-million dollars, is owned by Michigan Athletic Director Bill Martin.

Posted under Basketball

If you really want to know about tempo-free statistics, you should really head over to Basketball Prospectus. Anything and everything you would ever want to know about the statistical analysis of basketball is there. Since the Big Ten Wonk left his blogspot home and moved to BP, there hasn’t really been a focus on the statistics of Big Ten Basketball lately.

I’m just starting to get into this and I haven’t really gone too deep into the statistics. For those of you who like charts (and/or AJAX filled Web2.0 applications) I compiled some basic tempo free stats online. You can see them here. The conference sheet is sorted by Possessions and the U of M sheet is sorted by effective field goal percentage.

If you want a quick crash course on tempo-free statistics, I recommend checking out the tutorial on Big Ten Wonk.

From looking at Michigan’s stats compared to the rest of the conference, I’m cautiously optimistic. One of the biggest complaints I had from the Amaker era was the frequency of turnovers, which killed any chance of Michigan winning. Michigan this year is number 3 in the conference in Turnovers per Possession (TOPP on the chart). Another complaint is that the games were boring. Michigan versus Northwestern did not even pretend to be a basketball game as both teams pointlessly dribbled or passed the ball around the perimeter until the shot clock ran down. Michigan is 3rd in the conference in possessions behind only Purdue and Illinois. This does not mean they are good, but it’s more a matter of personal preference. I like a smooth, flowing game; the change is like going from Mike DeBord to Rich Rodriguez.

Where Michigan is crashing and burning is shooting the ball. They have the worst effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in conference. eFG% even appropriately weights the benefits of 3pt shots and it still doesn’t bring them up. Michigan is shooting about 46% when the median is 50%. There could be a silver lining on this horrible showing. Michigan is 4-1 when their eFG% is greater than 50%. It isn’t ridiculous to think that once Beilein gets his players in and really gets the freshman and sophomore class shooting well this team will contend.

Beilein has stopped a lot of the bad the Amaker left him. He just needs to get his players playing his system and things should look up. If Michigan shoots well, they can beat some good teams (see Ohio State). I think most of the pain from this season is coming from square pegs meeting round holes.

I’ll try to dig a little deeper through the week and look up some defensive numbers. The spreadsheet is saved on GoogleDocs, so if anyone wants to put together the team table for their (or any) team, let me know and you can be added as a collaborator.

Posted under Basketball