Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Golden Gophers at 7PM tonight on BTN. The game takes place in Crisler Arena, where some tickets are still available.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website), wherein the Gophers are “O” for “opponent”:

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Michigan and Minnesota are very even teams, with pushes in 3 categories, and only 3 in which there is more than a single-letter advantage. Of course, there is the fact that Minnesota did it against a much easier schedule. However, both teams have struggled in conference play, and it’s hard to make any meaningful comparisons about schedule strength without conference-only numbers. Michigan wants to force the Gophers into turnovers and rebound as many of their own misses as they can. If the Wolverines were to be able to get to the line (which they won’t, because Big Ten refs hate Manny Harris), it would also help out their offensive efficiency. KenPom predicts a 65-63 Wolverines win in a 63-possession game.

Minnesota has a fairly talented team, and if there’s one area Tubby Smith has excelled, it’s bringing in a lot of talent. Guard Lawrence Westbrook takes up most of the Gophers’ possessions, and is the team leader in drawing fouls. Fellow guard Al Nolen is actually the leader in getting to the line for Minnesota, and he leads the team in assists. One thing that the Gophers do very well is get blocks (they lead the nation), and they have three players (Damien Johnson, Ralph Sampson III, and Colton Iverson) in the nation’s top 40. Sampson, a 6-11 center, also leads the team in offensive rating.

After starting the season 16-1, the Gophers have dropped 5 of 8, with two of the wins nailbiters over Indiana (the other was a blowout of Illinois). They are certainly sliding now. The Gophers should be vulnerable, but they’re fighting for their tournament lives, just like the Wolverines. Michigan needs three more regular-season victories for a chance at making the tournament, and the two games against Minnesota are going to be very important unless they pull a big upset somewhere (home to Purdue or @Wisconsin).

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

One of the most stunning turnarounds in college football’s 2008 season was that of the Minnesota Golden Gophers. After winning but a single game in 2007 (over a Miami team that didn’t make a bowl out of the MAC), Tim Brewster managed to lock down a top recruiting class and led his team to 7-5 and a bowl game. So how did the Gophers do it, and why can’t Michigan do it like that?

The biggest problem for Minnesota in 2007 was defense, and they ranked last in the nation in stopping their opponents. So what caused the turnaround? Minnesota recruited several JuCo players in the class of 2008, at least a couple of whom (Traye Simmons and Tremaine Brock) played key roles on the defensive unit. Also, Minnesota got Willie VanDeSteeg back after he was hampered by injury throughout the entire 2007 year.

One thing that this year’s Wolverines had in common with last year’s Gophers was turnover margin. The Gophers were 114th in the nation in 2007 in net turnovers, and Michigan’s team this year was 105th. Adam Weber reduced his interception total from 19 to 8 over the course of one year. With Michigan either returning Steven Threet or starting a true freshman, how much can the interception total (12) be expected to decrease. No, it wasn’t throwing picks that hurt Michigan this year, it was fumbling the football. Michigan lost 18 this year, so how can we expect that number to drop next year?

Minnesota’s offense in 2007 was actually pretty successful at moving the ball when it wasn’t coughing it up. In this way, the Gophers differed from Michigan 2008 in a pretty significant way. Michigan will have to rely an an upgrade at the quarterback position (Steven Threet staying healthy plus Tate Foricer entering should help) and along the offensive line (the group, which improved over the course of the year, returns all starters, plus adds a few redshirt freshmen who may be ready to contribute).

Minnesota last year may actually be the closest analog to Michigan this year. A new coaching staff installing new schemes on each side of the ball didn’t really have enough time with their team to get everything put together for a successful run in their first year. Michigan’s recruiting haul on the whole may not be quite so ready-to-play as MInnesota’s was last year.

Of course, Minnesota was vastly overrated this year, on the basis of a weak non-conference schedule and a soft schedule overall toward the beginning of the year. Toward the end of the year, they were exposed as something of a fraud. This will probably be what Michigan is like next year.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching, Football

Massey from Buckeye Commentary drops by to offer his take on Michigan’s game against Minnesota this week. For my view on the Buckeye game, head over to his site.

What I saw: I saw the Little Brown Jug stay on the same sideline as it has for 35 of the last 38 years. Sometimes Minnesota makes the game more interesting by taking a huge lead into halftime only for Michigan to wake up, storm back, and leave the Gophers emasculated. The Michigan defense spared us the suspense on Saturday by playing like the defense I originally expected to see after taking he last month or so. Call it an Italian-style defense, except the Wolverines took October off, instead of August.

The defense held Adam Weber to about a quarter of his yardage total from the previous week while completing neutering the Gophers’ offense. Minnesota could not have had more than 50 yards in the first half, while punting every single possession. Aside from their opening second-half drive, Minny was a complete embarrassment on offense, to Michigan’s credit.
What I didn’t see: The schizophrenic offense or the Nick Sheridan sleeper hold. With Threet concussed and still having headaches, Wolverines’ fans have to feel a little better. Sheridan was not spectacular but he was waaaaay better than I ever dreamed he would be. Sure, he threw some questionable passes but he did not infect the entire with ineptitude like I figured he would.

Who I watched: K.C. Lopata was so money. He is a good kicker so the fact that he was 5-for-5 on the day is not a surprise, but he had not attempted a meaningful field goal in a month and that was against Toledo. Ugh.

I also watched Justin Feagin play for the first time this season. I do not keep up with Michigan football as closely as you all do, but what was the reason that Rodriguez did not play him until facing a 7-2 team, on the road, with a successful season totally out of reach? I understand that he had the bulk of his yardage on one carry but I would be lying to you if said I did not expect him to be the starting quarterback in September 2009.

What I expect to see next week: Uh, more Feagin? It sounds like Minor and Threet will still be out against Northwestern but the Cats are coming unglued. NW’s offense is essentially a carbon copy of Minnesota so there is no reason that the Michigan defense cannot put the same vice on the Wildcats. I would be a total fool to predict another flawless offensive performance but their confidence must be at a season high.

What this can tell us about The Game: I have worried in the past that Michigan would magically put all the offensive pieces together against the Buckeyes. It would not be magic anymore but simply building on past, improved performances.

More alarming for Ohio State fans is the play of Michigan’s defense. Pryor and Wells are played better against Northwestern but that is only in relation to the miserable performance against Penn State. The Buckeyes offense can be stopped by an athletic defense that makes it difficult for Pryor to make his reads because, after 10 games, the Buckeyes clearly lack a consistent running attack. If the offense is not self-destructing, while the defense plays like last week, and Lopata is bombing field goals The Game may be a lot closer than most people anticipated.

Posted under Football

Michigan made a huge mistake in hiring Rich Rod. The season only get worse.
Minnesota-28 Michigan-7

Minnesota has a very tough defense and an offense that can really move the ball through the air. They’ll beat Michigan by at least 14. Michigan is steamrolling towards 2-10.

Hail to this year’s fraudulent Wolverines! U of M alums will shun each of you forever! Learn to pour some coffee because that’s the job you’ll get on graduation! 2 and 10!

This Rod hire looks worse every week, he is infamous for his arrogance and failure to make adjustments. Chances are his tenure at Michigan will be a failure. Whether the players fit his system or not, there is no reason for the ineptitude his Michigan team has displayed this season. Good coaches learn to adapt.

I agree. R Rod’s master plan is to sacrifice this year’s team and make it go 2-10, so he can claim what terrible team he inherited from Lloyd Carr. This will set the expectations way low for future years. That way, when he does finally have a winning record, say 7-5, he hopes to be praised for what genius he is. In the end, RR will turn Michigan into another Purdue. Few decent years followed by “rebuilding” year, followed by few decent years, and then so on. Don’t expect another National Championship with him.

(Source)

Various outlets are reporting that Rich Rodriguez has called Steven Threet “very, very questionable” for Saturday’s game against Minnesota. Justin Feagin has been moved back to QB to back up Nick Sheridan. If that sentence doesn’t fill your veins with icy dread, I don’t know what will. Who knows, maybe Sheridan will be lost for the season and Feagin will go nuts on the Gophers, a la Justin Siller against Michigan? (Source)

Posted under Football

This has been a rough year for Michigan fans as streak after streak was broken, as benchmarks of sustained success were missed, as the team lost five straight games and seven of nine overall. What got to me the most was the one step forward, two steps back modus operandi of this team. It seemed as soon as one thing became effective, something else broke. So, every time I saw something that inspired hope, that hope was quickly and forcefully shattered by some mistake or failure.

Maybe it’s because I’ve been telling myself and anyone who will listen that this will work, but I have not really taken stock of how bad this season has been. Before last Saturday, Michigan had won two games by a total of 12 points and lost seven by a total of 87 points. Some of the games were competitive, but in Big Ten play I can’t really say Michigan should have won any of the games that it lost. The Wolverines were outplayed by better teams.

This was all sinking in by Saturday. I was resigned to a loss, even a blowout, against a team that Michigan has, quite literally, historically dominated. Even at half time, I figured the same old script would show itself. If this team has proven anything, it’s that it’s inconsistent. So expected the same old script: three and outs on offense; missed tackles and blown assignments on defense.

This is the first game that I’ve been excited to re-watch since the Toledo sadness happened. That was really when I lost my optimism for this team. Subsequent games made me question next year’s team. But one game made me remember why I was so excited to see this team play in August. What they lack in consistency they make up for in potential.

This offense was an absolute machine on Saturday with one quarterback who doesn’t throw well down field and one quarterback who doesn’t throw; with the worst offensive line any of us are ever likely to see; freshmen at almost every skill position; the top two running backs not playing at 100%. For the first time the offense was able to effectively counter the defense’s adjustments. In the past few games, the original script worked well, but once the defense adjusted, the offense stalled. There were a ton of new wrinkles (e.g. Feagin), some nostalgic wrinkles (e.g. the Braylon Edwards Memorial Diamond Formation), and parts of the basic the scheme that worked better this game than any game previous. This is what we have to look forward to. We got a preview of what this offense will be.

The defense, after giving up 48 points and roughly 6.82×10^23 yards against Purdue absolutely shut down an adequate if not amazing Minnesota offense. The defense was vintage Scott Shafer. The 3-3-5 stack was, as this blog and gsimmons guessed, likely and experiment designed to stop a decent running back (Kory Sheets) because there was a third string quarterback playing. The defense against Minnesota varied between 4-3, 4-3 over and 3-4 okie. The corners played up at the line both on man to man and on basic cover two. The defensive line and linebackers played well as a team and kept the running game contained very well.

My favorite part of the defensive game plan was the 3-4 Okie Chaos on passing third downs. I can’t imagine an offensive lineman or quarterback feels comfortable with 4 stand up potential blitzers moving in and out. I have to go back and look, but I don’t believe that Minnesota picked up a first down in one of these situations. Scott Shafer isn’t just a “press-man coverage and blitz” guy. He uses the threat of blitz just as well as actually blitzing.

This is what this team will become. This game proves that these guys can coach. I don’t care if Minnesota isn’t as good as advertised. The team that showed up and played could hang with most teams in the Big Ten. But when you have the youth and inexperience that Michigan has, it’s irrational to expect consistency game to game and from start to finish. After trying to revel in little victories like converting a third down or a good kick return, it’s nice to see the entire product and revel in a victory that results in win.

We caught a glimpse of what will happen, but the best part is that soon we’ll be living in the future.

Posted under Football

That’s what we’re told almost every time a play is reviewed in college football. “Every play is reviewed.” In the time it took the officials to spot the ball and wind the clock, ESPN had already put on screen conclusive video evidence that Obi Ezeh had possession of the ball and was down.

Some people may say “yeah, but it was a gritty, hustle play by the Minnesota player to get down there and dig the ball out of the pile. That’s football.” To that, I’d say when a player has possession of the football and a knee, elbow, or hip hit the ground, the play is dead. It’s a simple if A then B. We had a situation A, but it was not followed by B.

I don’t blame the officials on the field. It’s a tough situation to call. It happens really quickly and it’s hard to get a good angle in a scrum like that. But that’s why we have instant replay. And Rodriguez shouldn’t have to call a timeout to give them time to do what ESPN did in 10 seconds. Rodriguez shouldn’t have to challenge since every play is reviewed.

What do you think was going up in the booth? The replay official was watching the game in real time on his uber-high def monitors and from that decided there was nothing the least bit questionable? I’m in favor of replays happening when the call questionable, not just when the official thinks he (or she) sees incontrovertible visual evidence. I’d rather break the flow of the game in order to ensure the correct call is made.

The player will show in this paragraph

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Posted under Football

You know, in the short run, it has sucked to have a terrible season. It sucked to lose to Utah, Notre Dame, Illinois, Toledo, Penn State, Michigan State, and Purdue. It sucks to know we’re not going to a bowl.

But doesn’t it seem like this year was what the Michigan fanbase needed? Learn to enjoy wins instead of fearing losses. I predicted a loss to Minnesota with my head, but never gave up with my heart.

Damn, does it feel good to have people lining up to kick us while we’re down, then shoving it in their faces. Boy, do I wish I had a screenshot of that empty trophy case.

Posted under Football

When I originally previewed Minnesota in the summer, I knew they’d be improved, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted the huge step forward they have taken this year. The Gophers have gone from 1-11 to 7-2, one of the greatest turnarounds in recent history. How have they done it? Mostly through turnovers and taking care of the ball. If Michigan wants to win in the Metrodome tomorrow, they’d best hold on to the rock.

Offense
The majority of Minnesota’s offense goes through QB Adam Weber. Weber is having a so-so statistical year, coming in at 36th in the country in passing efficiency, but it’s what he’s not doing that’s most notable: turning the ball over. Last year, he threw 19 interceptions, and this year he has been picked off just four times. His main target is notable white wideout Eric Decker, who, while nicked up, is expected to play this week. Other notable receivers include Ben Kuznia (also white), DeLeon Eskridge (not white, and also a tailback), and Nick Tow-Arnett (also white, but understandably – he’s a tight end). Aside from Decker, however, it’s not the wide receivers that make the passing game successful, it’s Weber’s distribution that’s paramount. If Decker is still a little banged up, Michigan may be able to take advantage somewhat (he has nearly triple the number of receptions as Kuznia).

In the run game, there were many predictions of doom when Duane Bennett went down against Bowling Green, and was lost for the year. However, DeLeon Eskridge has stepped in and performed admirably. In fact, he’s getting 4.2 ypc, only slightly worse than Bennett’s 4.4, against better competition.Minnesota’s worst rushing games came against Ohio State… Indiana(?) and… Montana State? They’ve gotten worse over the course of the year, and that’s hopefully something the Wolverines can capitalize on.

Defense
The Gophers’ main weapon on defense is the takeaway. They’re currently 1st in the nation in turnovers gained, and 2nd in overall turnover margin. They’re actually at or around middle of the pack by most other defensive metrics, such as rushing defense (53rd), Pass efficiency defense (51st), and total defense (65th), all against a fairly weak schedule. This means that if a team can hold onto the ball, they stand a good chance of moving it down the field against the Gophers. Of course, that means nothing to Michigan, as the Wolverines can’t hold onto the ball to save their collective lives.

The Gophers have faced some fairly anemic offense, but none so bad as that of Michigan. Add in the fact that it is Nick Sheridan expecting to start in place of the oft-injured Steven Threet, and Wolverines fans are likely in for a long day. Of course, turnovers-as-defense isn’t necessarily sustainable, and the Gophers were bad in that respect last year, so perhaps Michigan can get lucky and not turn it over too much.

Predictions
Michigan’s starting QB throws at least 2 interceptions.
Eric Decker cannot finish the game because he is too hurt.
The Wolverines lose the jug, by a score of 31-13.

Posted under Football