Northwestern Offense

QBs

CJ Bacher exits, opening the door for 5th-year senior Mike Kafka. Backing up Kafka will likely be redshirt sophomore Dan Persa, who played on special teams in 2008.

Analysis

Kafka got penty of playing time last year when Bacher missed time, and has plenty of practice experience in the system. He’s more of a running threat than Bacher was, though perhaps not quite the passer. The backups are all inexperienced in game situations.

RBs

Redshirt junior Stephen Simmons, who has played plenty over the past couple years when the starters were injured, will be the starter. Behind him, walkon Jacob Schmidt is the only player with a carry to his name. Jeravin Matthews, one of two true freshmen to play last year, is a likely candidate to be the primary backup.

Analysis

Tyrell Sutton and Omar Conteh have been carrying this team over the past couple years, so losing them will be a big hit. Even worse is the fact that Simmons had a horrific (sub 3 YPC) average last year. Still, he’s a fast guy, and if Northwestern can get him into open space, there is big-pplay potential.

Receivers

Northwestern’s top 3 receivers from last year depart, taking with them 73% of the position group’s receptions from last year. Stepping up are two notably white (not unlike Peterman and Lane) players in true sophomore Jeremy Ebert and former quarterback 5th-year Andrew Brewer (who may be back for a 6th year if he desires to seek a medical redshirt for his sophomore season). Junior Sidney Stewart, former Michigan safety Charles’s little brother, will probably be third wideout. Tight ends Josh Rooks and Brendan Mitchell both return.

Analysis

The Wildcats will have to basically start over in the receiving corps, as the returning players accounted for very little production last year (od for a team running a spread set). The lost players were also the best in terms of average per reception, so with a new quarterback and seemingly no deep threat, there could be trouble for the Northwestern passing game.

Offensive Line

Left guard Keegan Kennedy is gone after starting all of last year, but the rest of the Wildcat OL should still be around. Redshirt sophomore (and former walkon) Doug Bartels should start at one of the guard spots, redshirt sophomore Ben Burkett will return after starting all of last year at center, redshirt sophomore Al Netter will return after playing left tackle all of last year, and 5th-year Desmond Taylor will return at right tackle. That leaves just one guard position open, and primary backup Joel Belding is no longer around to fill in. 5th-year Kurt Mattes, who is a tackle by trade, may be called upon to fill in. Mike Boyle will be the key backup at tackle, and Keegan Grant, who was hampered by an ankle injury last year, is the main backup on the interior.

Analysis

The offensive line returns almost entirely intact, and perhaps more impressively, the Wildcats started 3 redshirt freshmen last year, giving them a young but experienced group. They’ll need it, with a ton of uncertainty at the skill positions. The group allowed very few sacks last year, but were below-average in paving the way for the run. With a more mobile quarterback this year, they could be doing a lot more run blocking.

Offensive Analysis

Northwestern has a pretty experienced offensive line, but the lack of talent and depth at the skill positions is rather frightening. Unless Simmons can improve by leaps and bounds from his performance last year, and Kafka can become a more well-rounded player, the Wildcats should have a pretty anemic offense. Look for some serious steps back from this group unless the offensive line just blows teams away.

Northwestern Defense

Defensive Line

5th-year Corey Wootton is a legitimate All-American candidate at one of the defensive end positions, and redshirt sophomore Vince Browne will probably man the other spot. At defensive tackle, Corbin Bryant is expected to slide inside from defensive end and fill a starting role. Seniors Marshall Thomas and Adam Hahn will rotate at the other spot. Sophomores Jack DiNardo and Kevin Watt are reserve defensive ends.

Analysis

Outside of Wootton, this defensive line is nothing to really fear. Starting a 280-lb former DE at tackle might be a problem in terms of run defense, as Corbin Bryant may not have the strength and size required to hold the point of attack. Losing the top two performers on the defensive line (Wootton was hurt for a portion of the year) invariably is a bad thing, and I expect a step back from the Wildcats’ defense.

Linebackers

Prince Kwateng is gone, and Nate Williams and Quentin Davie are the only known commodities in the linebacking corps. An otherwise inexperienced and unheralded player will have to step up in the third spot, perhaps Ben Johnson or Bryce McNaul.

Analysis

Kwateng left with the most tackles on the team, and without him (and with NO experienced players to step in), the linebacker group will take a serious step back. An unproven player will ave to either be a pleasant surprise or a liability at the second level for Northwestern.

Defensive Backs

The entire starting secondary from last year’s team returns, with seniors Brad Phillips and Brendan Smith at the safety positions, senior Sherrick McManis at one corner position, and redshirt sophomore Jordan Mabin (a freshman All-American last year) at the other. Plenty of depth also returns, with Brian Peters, Mike Bolden, and Justan Vaughn ready to fill in if needed.

Analysis

The secondary should be a serious strength for Northwestern. Last year’s top-25 pass efficiency defense returns every starter and all the key backups. The DBs were pretty good playmakers last year, recording 10 interceptions among the starters. If they can build on that season, they may be able to be the strength of the NU defense.

Defensive Analysis

The first two levels are a little weak (primarily linebackers), but the secondary should be pretty rockin’. With good pressure on the opposing QBs from the likes of Wootton, the playmaking secondary, with all its experience, should be able to get their fair share of turnovers in 2009. The main problems with the defense look to be the rush D, with the undersized d-line, and the offense’s potential inability to stay on the field.

Special Teams

Amado Villareal and Kyle Daley both depart. Stefan Demos, a junior, will continue punting duties, and may take over placekicking resposbility as well.

Analysis

Demos was a subpar punter last year, and likely doesn’t have the strongest leg in the world. Even if an unknown player can step in and take care of field goals, this unit will probably be a weakness in 2009.

Overall Analysis

Offense: bad, defense: mediocre to good. Northwestern probably won’t be as good a team as they were last year, and they likely won’t face as easy a schedule (top 20 easiest in the nation) as they did last year. Taking that all into account, it looks like there’s probably a precipitous slide down the Big Ten standings in order for the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald is a pretty good coach, so hopefully for Northwestern, it will be a rebuilding year for a strong 2010.

Posted under Football

We lost to Northwestern 10-6. I just got home from my grandfather’s funeral, so I’m in no position to look anywhere past the score.  We cannot make the BigTen Tournament. The season is now over.  I’ll have some more post over the next week to week and a half looking over the season, including the Northwestern and Minnesota series that I’ve laxed up on the last few days.

Posted under Baseball

Game was washed out this afternoon (Friday).  They’re playing a double header beginning at noon eastern (11am in Evanston).  Illinois got the job done against Purdue as well, keeping Michigan’s BigTen Tournament hopes alive for another day.  We have to sweep and Purdue must lose in order for Michigan to advance.

And as commenter JJ pointed out, Fetter is looking tired.  I picked up on this last week.  His pitch counts have been VERY high compared to his last few seasons.  Instead of 7 inning complete games at best, he’s been throwing into the 8th and 9th innings a lot this season.  I think the fatigue is catching up.  Hopefully he can recover fully for next week (that is, if tomorrow goes well).

Posted under Baseball

The good news is Michigan took game 1 despite Chris Fetter having another rough outing.  The final score was UM 16, NU 6.  Fetter had a way high pitch count but did manage to strike out 9 hitters in 6.2 innings pitched.  The low spot had to be the 6 run 4th inning.

Offensively, the high was the 9 run 7th inning for Michigan.  Dufek had a pair of bombs, six different batters had at least 2 hits.   The NU bullpen was just horrid.

The bad news is out of West Lafayette.  Purdue won 12-5 to decrease their magic number to one.  We must win out and Illinois must take the remaining two games at Purdue in order for Michigan to make the tournament.

As mentioned by Other Chris, NU is streaming a video feed of tomorrows game.  Its pretty crappy feed, but it is available.

Gotta love that chain link fence in the way. And yes, that’s the only camera angle you really get. Occasionally it gets blurry as they move slightly right or left. But its at least available (and for free if you search hard enough).

As I’m headed to Austin now, you can catch my thoughts and a less than play by play at @Varsityblue.  I apologize to those that may consider it twitter spam.  If I ever do it again, I’ll try to do it CiL instead of there.  It was just available at the time.  So deal with it.

Game 2 starts at 4pm EDT tomorrow.  The Purdue/Illinois game should be wrapping up right as Michigan starts.  Hopefully it’ll feature a big L for Purdue.

Go Illini! Go Blue!

Posted under Baseball

Northwestern isn’t really very good at all.  They have a 3-16 BigTen record (12-34-1 overall).  Michigan is playing and praying.  We need Purdue to lose at least two against Illinois at home.  We must take care of Northwestern.  If Purdue wins two we’re done.  If they win one, we must sweep.  If they get swept, we must win 2.  We have to hope the weather works in our favor.  That is all.

Rocky Miller Park
Evanston, IL

Game 1 Thursday:4pm  Live Stats
Probable Starters: Chris Fetter (6-3) vs. TBA

Game 2 Friday: 4pm  Live Stats
Probable Starters: Eric Katzman (7-4) vs. Eric Jokish (3-7)

Game 3 Saturday: 2pm  Live Stats
Probable Starters: TBA vs. Joe Muraski (3-5)

No word on audio.  I’m guessing there may not be any.  I’m headed to Austin today to pick up my little sister and head to a funeral.  I should be back by Sunday to hopefully have a post on making the tournament.  We’ll see.

Posted under Baseball

Shooting data can be found in .xls format here.

Half 1

Half 2

Overtime

Individual Players

Didn’t shoot well, but was still productive on both ends of the court.

Played a lot with Sims in foul trouble. Didn’t score a ton, but did what he needed to do.

Really came on offensively in the second half. Played a solid defensive game, as well.

His inability to handle the rock and (occasionally) to shoot free throw nearly cost Michigan the game, but they probably wouldn’t have been in it without his defense.

Had a few big plays defensively.

Shot kinda poorly, but did the gritty white guy thing.

Offensive liability, and he doesn’t help a ton on the defensive end, either.

Not a big offensive day, and he fouled out on a phantom call. He was big defensively though.

Handled the ball well enough to not be a liability.

Only played when Beilein couldn’t rely on CJ to bring the ball up the court against the press.

Standard day.

The officiating in this game was a special kind of suck. This time, I think the Wolverines got the short end of the stick, and Sims’s 5th foul was an especially egregious call. CJ Lee can’t handle the ball at all, and Kelvin Grady really needs to step up his defense a bunch for the offense to get moving again. Beilein has favoired defense over offense for the past 8+ games, and it’s gotten a few results, but being able to get both halves from one player would be huge.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

The Wolverines take on Just Northwestern at 3PM Sunday in Evanston. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

The Wolverines took home a 68-59 victory in Crisler Arena that really wasn’t as close as the final score would seem to indicate. Michigan completely owned the boards on both ends (one of the few times they’ve been able to do so this season). More telling was the Wildcats’ shooting, particularly from 3-pt land. They were 10-27, including 4-13 from Craig Moore. DeShawn Sims and Kelvin Grady(!) led the god guys in scoring, and Manny Harris had a relatively quiet game, outside of his game-high 12 rebounds.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s ability to shoot the rock has continued to wane. Their ability to rebound it has increased, however, especially on the defensive end. Unsurpisingly, given the nature of their valiant efforts in losses to UConn and Michigan State, they have continued to slide in overall offensive efficiency, while their defensive numbers have gotten much better. Kelvin Grady,th Wolverines’ second-leading scorer the first time around, has been basically benched by John Beilein. The Wildcats have wins against Indiana and Chicago State and a loss to Illinois, which are basically neutral (excepting, of course, the total FAIL of their collapse against the Illini). They have a win against Wisconsin (positive) and a loss against Iowa (very, very negative) in that stretch as well. The Wildcats have gotten better at shooting in the meantime, but have also allowed opponents to shoot much, much better. Northwestern’s overall efficiencies on both ends have gotten worse.

And?…

If Michigan wants to win, they can’t count on Craig Moore to shoot poorly, especially in his own house (whatever the insignificant Northwestern basketball venue is called). They should certainly exploit their advantages in rebounding and overall athleticism. Getting to the line (especially off the offensive glass) should be the name of the game. Two big intangible factors will come into play in this contest: 1) Northwestern’s complete collapse against Illinois (especially with just a couple days’ turnaround), and 2) Michigan’s extended rest period, a situation which has served them well so far this year. Still, Michigan has struggled on the road this year, and though they have plenty of experience against the 1-3-1, Northwestern can beat anybody on any given night. On the other hand, they can also lose to anybody. Sound familiar?

Posted under Basketball

Half 1

Half 2

Game totals

Individual players:

Tough day shooting, but he did a lot of other stuff (including a game-high 12 rebounds).

Less playing time than he’s been getting, and probably a reflection of how well he’s been shooting. Another long-ish break between games can hopefully get him back on track.

Tough day shooting, but so many gritty white guy rebounds.

Owned the beginning of the game, then seemed to fade.

Standard performance from Kelvin. I’d like to see him shoot fewer 30-footers.

With Sims in foul trouble, he really carried his own weight.

Decent day. Obviously, there’s room for improvement.

Standard CJ Lee.

Standard Dave Merritt

Got sparing playing time following a fairly strong perfomance against Penn State.

Anthony Wright made a shot. This is a noteworthy event.

What This Says…

The offense was working best when they weren’t shooting exclusively from the outside. I’m not going to sit here and say “throw it inside and see what happens” because I’m well aware that’s not Michigan’s offense. On top of that, Michigan doesn’t have a Shaq in the paint. DeShawn Sims is a good post player with a midrange game, but he is undersized at center. What I’d like to see is the team make more of the backdoor passes, and be a little more patient than they sometimes are in launching longbombs from three. Taking the opportunity to probe the inside every now and then will open things up for the whole offense.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

The Wolverines take on Just Northwestern at 8PM tonight in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Northwestern, despite its reputation and unceremonious start to the season (namely, an 0-4 start in the conference), has reeled off two straight victories over top tiered competition in wins against Minnesota and AT Michigan State. The Wildcats are similar to Michigan, in that they shoot a bunch of threes and play a 1-3-1 defense. That defense was the key to their victory over Michigan State, as they were forcing turnovers left and right, and Michigan State had one of their worst shooting nights of the year. With Michigan facing the 1-3-1 every day in practice, do they have a slight advantage against it? Since Michigan’s slide began (which, in all honesty, began as early as the Wisconsin game, and at least as far back as the nail-biter over Indiana), the Wolverines have been falling fast down the rankings in terms of shooting percentage and opponents’ shooting percentage. Are these issues that can be corrected? For the most part, Michigan has simply been missing open looks, and opponents have been turning that offensive offense into confidence on their end of the court, where they’re making shots both open and ridiculous (Devan Dumes and Danny Morrissey excelling at the latter). If the long week of practice helps Michigan snap out of their funk, this game may not be as ugly as it first appears. If Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims can both play well tonight (something that hasn’t happened in quite some time), and a third player (one of Novak, LLP, ad Harris) can step up, that will go a long way to solving Michigan’s offensive woes.

Northwestern is led by guard Craig Moore, who leads the team in minutes played and eFG%. Sophomore guard Micheal Thompson is also a sharp-shooter for the Wildcats. The primary big man is junior Kevin Coble, who stamds 6-8, and has range not only in the paint, but also all the way out to three-point land. He could be considered something of a less-athletic DeShawn Sims. Most importantly, he gets very few offensive rebounds, but leads the team in defensive rebounding (among those who play significant minutes). The two most important players to shut down are Moore and Coble, but with Michigan’s luck, that just means some unheralded role player will step up and shoot the lights out.

With the three-game slide behind them, and a difficult slate up ahead, this game has become a must-win if Michigan wants to have any chance to win the tournament. If the long week of practice (and playing the role of underdog) can help Michigan, they may just be able to pull one off.

Posted under Basketball

With Michigan idle during the bowl season, I’ll take a little closer of a look at the rest of the Big Ten. Let’s start today with Iowa v. Northwestern.

Lake the Posts, poster-blog for “hey give us respect, guys!” posting, has yet another issue with not getting what the Cats “deserve.” 8-4 Iowa has been selected to the Outback Bowl over the 9-3 Wildcats, who also hold a head-to-head victory on the season. Well, for once there may be a legitimate gripe here. Let’s take a look at the resumes:

Neither resume is particularly impressive, and they’re fairly hard to differentiate at this point (aside form the head-to-head win). Let’s break it down further.

Northwestern gets the non-conference nod, though it’s slightly skewed because they didn’t lose a non-conference game, whereas Iowa lost to the only legit opponent either team played. Northwestern’s crappy non-con schedule gets a bump of one spot at each position. If you were to sort just by quality of opposition, ignoring win/loss record, Iowa’s slate would take Northwestern’s behind the woodshed.

Overall, the resumes are very similar, but Iowa’s seems to be better on the whole, despite the head-to-head loss and the slightly worse record. The common opponents occupy a high slot on Northwestern’s resume, and their wins were eith
er comparable or not as impressive. In loss, Iowa was competitive in every game they played (and let’s not even get into how they should have beaten both Michigan State and Pitt), whereas Northwestern was either getting blown out by good teams, or losing to Indiana, of all teams.

Posted under Football