The Situation
Michigan and Northwestern are tied at 14 midway through the 3rd quarter. Neither offense has been doing a particularly good job moving the ball down the field, so it’s likely that the next score could be the game-winner in deteriorating weather conditions. The Wildcats have the ball on Michigan’s 47-yard line, and they have a 1st and 10. They have only moved the ball across midfield once the entire day.

Personnel and Formation
Northwester is in a spread formation, with trips to the right, and a single receiver to the left side of the line. Stephen Simmons is lined up to CJ Bacher’s right in the shotgun. Michigan counters with a 4-3 formation, with Brandon Harrison playing linebacker, and aligned slightly wider to the trips side. Stevie Brown and Charles Stewart are the safeties.

The Play

At the snap, all four Northwestern wideouts go downfield. The outside receivers run fade routes down the sidelines. The outisde slot runs a skinny post, and the interior slot runs a deep crossing route. Simmons comes out of the backfield as a checkdown, running a hitch route. Michigan counters with a cover-2 zone. Trent and Warren cover the fades on the outside, and Brown and Stewart cover the deep middle. Ross Lane Eric Peterman, running the skinny post, is wide open behind the safeties, and sprints into the endzone for one of the easiest touchdown catches of his life.

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Why it Worked
There is a little disagreement between Paul and me as to who is to blame on this play (though both of us think Stewart is the primarily culpable party). Trent and Warren seem to be covering the fades quite well in my opinion, leaving the safeties free to cover the other two downfield routes. Paul disagrees, and thinks Trent has lost his man, giving Stewart no choice but to cover the sideline route (of course, the Big Ten Network shows no replay that shows the secondary, which would certainly help decide who is to blame). Regardless, Stewart leaves Lane Peterman completely alone on the skinny post, as Brown has stepped up to cover the deep cross. It is apparent that Stewart is primarily to blame, as Brown bitches him out in the endzone, with no apparent protestations from Stewart.

Also helping Northwestern succeed on this play is one of the most ridiculous non-calls of a holding I’ve seen so far this year (except maybe in the OSU-OSU game). Tim Jamison has a free run at Bacher, except, of course, for the left tackles arm, which is wrapped around his neck. Just another example of the despicable officiating the Big Ten has seen this year (I won’t even get into Donovan Warren’s INT for TD that wasn’t…).

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

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Massey from Buckeye Commentary stops by to give his weekly take on Michigan’s game.

What I saw: Blah, blah, blah. You don’t care what I saw last week. We have talked enough about all those boring second-rate conference games. This week is the real deal. No matter how old I get and regardless of how many other things I have going on, this game makes me feel like I am 13-years old again. So, I am sure as hell not going to tell you to “get a life.” This game is very important.

Let’s skip ahead, shall we…

What I expect this week: Michigan has not been this excited for a game since the opening contest against Utah. In that game, the Michigan defense held Utah to 36 yards rushing on 43 attempts (.8 yards/rush). That turns out to be 150 less than the Utes’ season average.

A motivated Michigan defense can cause a lot of problems for this Ohio State offense. It is fashionable these days to say that the Ohio State offense has turned the corner, but a closer inspection reveals some big plays mixed in with a lot of short gains (1-3 yards) and even negative running plays. Pryor is a difference maker because he can run so well and Michigan has had difficulty defending a running a quarterback but, then again, lots of teams have difficulty stopping mobile quarterbacks. Just ask every SEC defense that faces Florida.

And, unless the Ohio State coaching veers dramatically from its recent trend (which they have been known to do in this game), the number of designed runs for Pryor will be a relatively low number. Stopping Wells will be the obvious focus of the Wolverine defense.

The problem is, Ohio State has a defense, too. And it has been playing really well of late. Combine that with the fact that Michigan’s offense is injury-riddled, which never allowed them to gain an appropriate rhythm, and you have a recipe for unleavened offense. Without gaining short fields off turnovers, it will be very difficult for the Wolverines to mount multiple scoring drives. I honestly believe that 250 yards of total offense would be an achievement for Michigan.

There has only been one time in the last 15 years when I was totally free of nerves for this game and that was 1998. That was the most talented Ohio State team I can remember and they were playing an average Wolverine squad coming off a national championship season. Michigan had no chance that afternoon. But I do not feel that way this week.

Michigan’s chances are not great but they have a little history on their side and sometimes that is all you need in a rivalry like this one. I have seen Shawn Springs fall down. I have seen Biakabutuka run for 300 yards. I have seen Stanley Jackson run a counter play to a Michigan LB.

I do not expect to see Nick Sheridan combine for 300 yards of total offense. But then again, I do not expect Tressel to be in a position “to go for three.”

Posted under Football

Coming into this year, Michigan and Northwestern had similar expectations. Both were projected to finish near the upper-middle of the conference, and perhaps even both make it to January bowl games. Of course, things didn’t exactly turn out that way. Northwestern has perhaps exceeded expectations, its only losses so far coming to Ohio State, Michigan State, and… er… Indiana. Michigan’s season has unfolded in the opposite direction. After reaching 2-2 on the season, back-to-back demoralizing losses against Illinois and Toledo initiated a tailspin that halted only this past week, with a win at Minnesota. Next year, look for Michigan to try to replicate the Northwestern model for success (ridiculously easy OOC schedule).

Offense
The ‘Cats are hurting on this side of the ball, with their top two running backs lost for the year. Tyrell Sutton (2005 Big Ten Freshman of the Year) and Omar Conteh (who stepped in for Sutton much of last year, including a 115-yard day against Michigan) will be replaced by sophomore Stephen Simmons and recently-converted WR Jeravin Matthews, a true freshman. Even before the top two went out for the year, Northwestern was near average in rushing, and that production can be expected to decrease without two talented players. In the passing game, Northwestern has relied on both CJ Bacher and Mike Kafka. Kafka has been more dangerous as a runner than a passer in his time filling in for an injured Bacher. Speaking of Bacher, there’s always the Official CJ Bacher Interception Statistic to draw on: when he starts and throws 1 pick or less, the Wildcats win. However, it is unclear exactly how healthy Bacher will be this weekend, though he should be available. Northwestern’s top 3 receivers are Eric Peterman, Ross Lane, and Rasheed Ward. All have seen their production decrease sans Bacher.

To me, it looks like a Minnesota to me. Without a credible running threat in the backfield, Northwestern’s offense looks a lot like that of the Gophers. That, of course, brings up the question of which quarterback starts for the Wildcats. With Kafka, they have a mobile signal-caller that isn’t the passing threat (and we saw how much success Michigan had defending against Justin Siller), and with Bacher, they have… GopherClone. That team spread the field and passed, without much of a run threat (though their offense is based on the RR spread, and we all know that Rodriguez would love to run the ball as much as possible). Either way, it looks like Northwestern’s options are limited. I’d like to think Michigan will be able to dial up a similar gameplan to last week, and trust their guys to man up on wideouts that aren’t as athletic.

Defense
Northwestern partisans have been hailing new defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz as the second coming of Christ. Of course, the pragmatist would note that his early-season numbers were built up against the #111 offense (Syracuse), the #87 offense (Duke), the #49 offense… in 1-AA (Southern Illinois), and the #71 offense (Ohio). Two of Northwestern’s top defenders, Malcolm Arrington and Vince Browne, have been lost for the season. The Wildcats shouldn’t be expected to get tons of stops against any offense with legitimate threats on the ground and through the air.

That brings us to the Michigan offense, whose best threat through the air so far this season has been Steven Threet. When he missed time last week, Nick Sheridan filled in most competently. However, whoever ends up getting the start for Michigan this week will likely be operating without the services of Brandon Minor, who has emerged as Michigan’s best threat of moving the ball on the ground. Michigan’s offense might be something of a mirror image of Northwestern’s at this point, though I think Sam McGuffie and Michael Shaw bring something to the table that Northwestern’s third-string running back may not. However, last week’s performance by the quarterback was probably a one-time deal, and the offense should regress this week.

Other Stuff
On top of injury news, this week may hinge on intangibles more than any other so far this year. Was Michigan’s performance last week the sign of better things to come with gained confidence, or just a one-week anomaly? Will the weather have an adverse effect on either team’s offense? These can’t be accounted for in a preview, however comprehensive it may be (and I’m under no illusion that this is a comprehensive preview).

Predictions
At least 3 (but probably 4) players take snaps for Michigan.
Northwestern has trouble moving the ball on the ground with anyone other than Mike Kafka, but they have a successful game through the air.
Michigan drops one to the Wildcats, 24-10.

Posted under Football