Raw data for both UFRs can be found in last night’s post.

Ohio State:

Half 1

1st half differential
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	4:22	4-9	-5
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	2:32	2-4	-2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	:06	2-0	+2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	4:37	6-8	-2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	1:02	0-2	-2
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims	2:11	0-0	0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	:48	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	1:20	2-4	-2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:04	7-2	+5
Total	20:00	25-29	-4

Half 2

2nd half differential
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	8:30(!)	15-11	+4
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	2:24	5-4	+1
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	2:16	3-2	+1
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	:35	0-3	-3
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:44	3-7	-4
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	:55	0-2	-2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	:40	2-3	-1
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Sims	:19	3-2	+1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	:35	0-1	-1
Total	20:00	37-40	-3

Game totals

Lineup Totals
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	14:00	21-20	-1
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	2:32	2-4	-2
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	2:16	3-2	+1
Merritt, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	:35	0-3	-3
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	6:23	12-8	+4
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	4:37	6-8	-2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	4:59	5-11	-6
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Novak, Sims	2:11	0-0	0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	:48	2-0	+2
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Sims	:19	3-2	+1
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	1:20	2-4	-2
Total	60:00	58-65	-7

Individual players:

Manny Harris 37min -7
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane	1	0/3	0/1	2/2
Midrange			1/1	1/1
3-point		0/2	2/3

Manny was up-and-down. Even when he makes it, I don’t like the hesitation three-ball.

Laval Lucas-Perry 26min +1
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				1/1
Midrange				0/1
3-point		0/2	0/1	0/1

Awful. This has been a trend of late.

Zack Novak 37min -10
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane	1
Midrange
3-point		0/2			1

Had a good day rebounding the ball. Not so much shooting.

DeShawn Sims 32min -4
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane		0/1	1/4	2/3	1/2
Midrange			0/1	0/1
3-point				0/1

Bad day. He’d recover against PSU.

Kelvin Grady 27min -6
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			1/1
Midrange
3-point		1/1	0/3

Poor effort from three, but did a lot of setting other guys up.

Zack Gibson 8min -2
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane		0/1
Midrange
3-point

So bad.

Stu Douglass 21min -9
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point		0/1	2/4	2/3

A pretty good day behind the arc.

CJ Lee 6min +2
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point			0/1	1/1

Let’s be honest: he’s in there for his defense.

David Merritt 6min -4
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			0/1
Midrange
3-point

Needs to make the few opportunities he’ll get.

What This Says…

Michigan was actually in this game for most of the way. There were a few dry spells toward the end that really did them in, and no personnel combo that Beilein tried could alter the momentum.

Penn State:

Half 1

1st half differential
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	4:32	7-4	+3
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:33	2-7	-5
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	3:36	3-9	-6
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:01	0-0	0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:24	0-0	0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	3:52	4-2	+2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:17	0-0	0
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	1:57	4-3	+1
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims	1:52	2-4	-2
Total	20:00	22-29	-7

Half 2

2nd half differential
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:08	2-8	-6
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	2:11	4-5	-1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:17	2-6	-4
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	:29	0-2	-2
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	:22	0-0	0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims	1:22	2-5	-3
Merritt, Douglass, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:36	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:05	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Sims	2:37	7-7	0
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:29	3-10	-7
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:19	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Shepherd, Gibson	1:54	5-1	+4
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Puls, Gibson	1:09	5-0	+5
Total	20:00	36-44	-8

Game totals

Lineup Totals
Lineup	Time on Floor	Score	Differential
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	7:40	9-12	-3
Grady, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	1:57	4-3	+1
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Sims	5:44	6-12	-6
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	4:05	3-11	-8
Grady, Douglass, Lee, Shepherd, Sims	1:52	2-4	-2
Grady, Douglass, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:17	2-6	-4
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:01	0-0	0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Gibson	:24	0-0	0
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Lee, Harris, Sims	3:52	4-2	+2
Merritt, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:17	0-0	0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Gibson	:22	0-0	0
Merritt, Douglass, Lee, Novak, Sims	1:22	2-5	-3
Merritt, Douglass, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:36	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Novak, Shepherd, Sims	:05	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Shepherd, Sims	2:37	7-7	0
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Sims	3:29	3-10	-7
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Harris, Novak, Gibson	1:19	2-0	+2
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Shepherd, Gibson	1:54	5-1	+4
Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Wright, Puls, Gibson	1:09	5-0	+5
Total	60:00	58-73	-15

Individual players:

Manny Harris 26min -10
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane	2	1/2	0/1	1/1	0/1
Midrange		0/2			2/2
3-point		0/3	0/1	0/1

I’d still like him to keep trying to draw contact; eventually they’ll have to call fouls.

Laval Lucas-Perry 25min +6
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			1/1		0/1
Midrange				1/1
3-point			0/5	0/1

Really bad shooting day.

Zack Novak 28min -24
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				1/1	0/2
Midrange
3-point			0/2	1/2

Did the little things well, but not so much on the shooting.

DeShawn Sims 29min -16
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane		1/2	1/2	1/1	2/2
Midrange		1/1	3/5
3-point

The only god player for the whole team. He didn’t have enough to carry them by himself.

Kelvin Grady 23min -22
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point			1/4	0/1

Got much less playing time than usual. He was struggling with his shot, but kept putting them up.

Zack Gibson 11min -1
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				1/1	0/1
Midrange				0/1
3-point			1/1

Bad day. Needs to show off his whiteboy athleticism.

Stu Douglass 26min -15
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point		2/2	1/4	0/2

Mediocre shooting day.

CJ Lee 12min -11
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point				0/1

Poor performance in somewhat limited time.

David Merritt 7min +1
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane				0/1
Midrange		0/1
3-point

Very little playing time.

Anthony Wright 3min +9
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point				0/1

Garbage time only.

Jevohn Shepherd 9min +7
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane			1/1		1/1
Midrange			0/1
3-point

Was one of the few guys who played more than just garbage time with a positive number. The team didn’t do too much scoring when he was in, but nor did the opponent. I’d like to see him on the court as a complement to high-scoring players.

Eric Puls 1min +5
Location	0	1	2	3	F
Lane
Midrange
3-point

Garbage only.

What This Says…

DeShawn Sims was the only consistent player all day. The entire team struggled shooting, and they were putting up poor looks. I think that a long week of practice (this team hasn’t had more than a couple days off in quite some time) will help them get back on track. Is it too late, though?

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Just the raw numbers for you tonight, actual UFR analysis to come tomorrow.

Ohio State

Penn State

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Tonight, for the second time in 10 days, Michigan will take on Illinois in Big Ten basketball action. The game is a 8:30 PM Eastern  tonight in Urbana-Champaign, and can be seen live on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Michigan v. Ohio State: National Ranks
Category	Michigan	Ohio State	Advantage
Mich eFG% v. OSU eFG% D	106	63	O
Mich eFG% D v. OSU eFG%	113	71	O
Mich TO% v. OSU Def TO%	3(!)	99	M
Mich Def TO% v. OSU TO%	151	65	O
Mich OReb% v. OSU DReb%	248	157	O
Mich DReb% v. OSU OReb%	196	265	M
Mich FTR v. OSU Opp FTR	302	7	OO
Mich Opp FTR v. OSU FTR	14	85	M
Mich AdjO v. OSU AdjD	24	33	–
Mich AdjD v. OSU AdjO	120	69	O

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Ohio State is a pretty good team, despite not getting a ton of love from the polls right now. Their offense depends on hitting their shots, and the defense is reliant on forcing opponents to miss their shots, as well as getting them to turn it over. Surprisingly, they don’t have a huge rebounding advantage over the Wolverines like I would have expected. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-64 Michigan win in a 62-possession game. He gives the Wolverines a 59% chance of winning the game.

Ohio State has had a rash of injuries and player defections this year, making them somewhat thin (depth-wise) outside the paint. Inside the paint, they have 7-1 freshman BJ Mullens. If the Illinois game is any indication, Michigan should have plenty of trouble matching up with Ohio State’s men inside. Fortunately, the Buckeyes don’t have nearly the depth in big men (the next tallest player is 6-9, and Kyle Madsen gets very little playing time). The most-used players for Ohio State are Evan Turner and Jon Diebler, two sophomores who play nearly the entire game for OSU each time out.

The Wolverines face another tough battle, and hopefully the home-court advantage can propel them to a win.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

For the final time this season, Massey from Buckeye Commentary drops by to give his opinions on Michigan’s game.

What I saw: Ohio State’s big play offense, which had been largely absent for the entire season. Wells had two runs of more than 50 yards, Boom Herron tore off a 50-yarder, and both Pryor and Boeckman threw passes of more than 45 yards. In fact, the Buckeyes’ big plays were all that was necessary during a two-play, 92-yard drive that only took 45 seconds. Throw in the often disciplined, and sometimes suspended Ray Small’s third quarter punt return and you saw a more offensive bursts than Ohio State had produced all year.

I saw the Ohio State defense have its hardest hitting game of the year. Sheridan was constantly getting drilled and even seemed to be knocked out of the game briefly (although Feagin’s appearance could have been planned).

What I didn’t see: Michigan’s offense was did not have much success but I did not see the mistake laden productions that they have put on in the past. Michigan had one nice drive, but was otherwise stifled by the Ohio State defense. The Wolverines’ offense was not good, but they hardly shot themselves in the foot (relatively speaking). I did not see repeated fumbles or penalties, which tells me that they were prepared but totally outmanned.

I did not see a great game from Pryor. He receives so much praise that it is easy to only remember his flashes of brilliance. But a closer inspection of his performance, reveals some great plays – the 3rd quarter scramble and pass to Sanzenbacher and the deep ball to Hartline – mixed in with plenty of poor plays – the interception and holding the ball too long and taking some sacks. I understand that he was really pumped at the beginning of the game, which resulted in some high throws but his overall passing performance cannot be termed anything other than a work in progress.

I also did not see a super offensive line play from Ohio State and their play was certainly frustrated by Michigan’s front four. As an Ohio State fan you have to be excited by the dynamic runners on offense (Wells, Pryor, and Herron) but nervous about the prospects of the offensive line they run behind.
Who I watched: I was interested in the Michigan lines. I wanted to see if the defensive line would be able to consistently get into the OSU backfield and if the offensive line would be able to push around the underachieving Buckeyes’ front four.

In comparison, the defensive line played much better. As mentioned, Ohio State had some big plays but, in general, the Michigan front four played as well. I know that sounds crazy, but most of the Buckeyes’ long plays were the result of a bad linebacker and/or secondary play. If you watched Herron’s run, the safety is in position and gets burned near the line of scrimmage.

The Michigan offensive line had no such success. When a teams gains less than 200 yards there cannot be good offensive line play. The Ohio State defensive got pushed around on the Michigan scoring drive but won that battle the rest of the game.

What I expect next year: Michigan will be improved; they have to be. But I wonder if the record will be markedly better. I do not think they will be 3-9 again, but I could see 6-6 or 7-5. To me, it seems like that Rodriguez will play Feagin more or even opt for one of the incoming freshman quarterbacks. The upside for Threet or Sherdan does not seem to be there. All the Wolverine skill position players will be back. If they can get decent offensive line they could put up some reasonable stats.

On defense, I am less sure what to expect from the Wolverines. With three seniors on the defensive line (with 82 combined starts) along with draft-eligible Brandon Graham, the potential for an entirely new d-line is good, which is bad news. The linebacker corps is young and really seemed to struggle as the year went along, but they have an off-season to get it together. I think their secondary will only get better with the subtraction of Trent and Harrison. I think they are overrated. Put Cissoko back there and hope that some safeties appear on the scene in spring practice.

One thing I do not expect next season is to beat Michigan by 35 points again. I do not know if I will ever see that again.

Posted under Football

spybucks182 won the score prediction contest for the Rivalry Series: Michigan Beat Ohio State DVD set.

spybucks, e-mail me (link on the right) your shipping information and I’ll send you the set.

Posted under Football

This is the way the world ends/Not with a bang but a whimper.

When I woke up this morning I felt a draft in my normally warm apartment. I get up and look at the one big window I have. I pulled with blinds saw two baseball sized holes in the window. I look down at my feet and see a ton of broken glass. I didn’t want to think this was an omen.

The game itself was no different than most other games against good teams. Michigan stayed competitive for the first half and then couldn’t keep it up in the second. The game even started out identically to Northwestern: Stevie Brown takes an interception back inside the 10 and Michigan fails to get any points.

There were some flashes of what a mediocre team looks like. Michigan had a touchdown drive, something the team couldn’t do last year. The defense was lights out for most of the first two quarters. Before the post Pryor hit for a touchdown, I mentioned that Pryor doesn’t look that much better than Nick Sheridan.

At halftime I thought that Michigan had a chance. Then reality came and gave me a swift kick to the balls. I’m not angry at anything for OSU getting their fifth straight win over Michigan. I’m not torn up about a team that has more losses than any other team in the 129 years of Michigan football.

This season was bad. It was almost as bad as it could have been. Every time something was fixed with this team something else broke. Michigan was very close to being mediocre, but instead injuries and serendipity forced this team to bad. We all knew this was possible; we all knew this was somewhat probable. At this point, all we can do is put our heads down, take the jeers and wait for next year.

This isn’t something Michigan fans are used to. 2004 was a rebuilding year; so was 2006. Michigan has had such a run of continued excellence that people started mistaking excellence for mediocrity. I guarantee that Rich Rodriguez knows the difference between the two and knows that this team is neither. I also guarantee that Rich Rodriguez knows what it takes to move this team from where they are to where we all want them to be. He’s a winner, and the only way someone can become a winner is by winning. There’s no compelling, rational argument against his future success.

If you want to complain about the coaches, players or other fans, go ahead. If that’s what you need to do to make this season bearable, fine. Personally, I’m going to hold onto my rational hope, keep my head down and wait for next year. It can’t get any worse.

Posted under Football

Can we go back to November 17, 2006? Let’s just forget everything that’s happened in the world of Michigan football since then. Just erase it and go from there. Forget The Game of the Century (of the Year). Forget the Rose Bowl. Forget the Mountaineers, the Ducks, even forget Lloyd’s last win, in the Capital One Bowl against Florida.

After a horrendous 2005 season, the calls for Lloyd Carr’s head came out. “He doesn’t have it anymore,” “he’s so boring,” “argh Terry Malone.” 2006 was Lloyd’s chance to shut them up, and shut them up he did.

In 2006, Michigan fans felt good. It started with a week 1 victory over Vanderbilt that wasn’t half as close as the score indicated. I remember after that game, poring over the Central Michigan-Boston College game that I had recorded, trying to glean any morsel of information I could about the Chippewas. After Lamarr Woodley and co. introduced Dan LeFevour to the Michigan Stadium turf four times, it was on to the game against Notre Dame.

We were all a little more naïve then, or perhaps more accurately, a little less jaded. I was still dumb enough to call Charlie Weis a “good coach” on WOLV-TV. Then, September 16th came. Paul and I loaded into my car early that morning. We got food on the way to South Bend, & documented the drive on the back of a McDonald’s placemat. After we arrived and reached our parking spot, we explored a bit. We saw the Irish March from their chapel to the stadium. The fans in South Bend were as confident as could be. Me? I was scared shitless.I never thought my beloved Wolverines stood a chance. All I had to hold onto was hope.

On the field a couple hours before gametime, I was terrified. As they went through warm-ups, the Irish were at least as confident as their fans. These Goliaths looked like they couldn’t be beat. As the game rolled around, thousands of people filled in the empty spaces around me, but I was still alone. If they knew that I was from Michigan, these beasts would eat me alive.

Through the first two quarters of the game, my nerves are evident from the game footage. It might has well have been an earthquake, though it was only my arms shaking. Though Michigan dominated the game, I feared a comeback the entire time. Until Lamarr Woodley picked up Brady Quinn’s fumble and ran into the endzone, I thought there was no way Michigan would emerge victorious. By the end of the game, however, I realized that I hadn’t been standing alone by myself all along. Mike was with me. Alan was with me. Mario was with me.

That smile never left my face. Blasting “The Victors” from my car stereo as we waited to get out of the parking lot. On the entire drive back to Ann Arbor, as Paul and I excitedly discussed just how good, exactly, this team might be. All night, as I celebrated with my friends back in Ann Arbor.

Can I have that feeling back?

The next few weeks were a blur, as Michigan’s defense destroyed opponents, and Mike DeBord did just enough to get away with a win. Michigan, for the first time since 1997, was in the national title hunt beyond September.

October 14 provided another roadtrip opportunity. We left for State College on Thursday night, so Danny could visit his girlfriend, a freshman at Penn State. By the time we got there, it was nearly midnight, so we dropped off our companions, explored the campus a bit, and paid way too much for one night in a hotel.

The next day, we were completely free from responsibility. We explored the town, bought Penn State gear (I’m an avid collector of any and all college merchandise), went for a ride on the Nittany Lion (a phrase which here means “sat on a stationary statue”), and generally took in the Penn State experience. It is at this time that I should probably recommend against going to an away game 40+ hours before it starts unless you have something or someone to see there, or are 21.

Paternoville was certainly an experience itself, and the atmosphere among the student body was awesome. Of course, a friendly PSU fan offered me a paper plate to tape over the Michigan decal on the back of my car, to avoid getting all my windows broken. After failing to find a random couch to stay on (are there even house parties at Penn State?), we found a parking lot, tilted the seats in my car back, and slept. When we woke up the next morning, we found my passenger seat permanently reclined. This was a bad omen.

Fortunately for us, Penn State’s media relations office had provided us with a parking pass. Unfortunately, their instructions on reaching the parking lot were something short of “subpar.” After finally dealing with myriad parking lot attendants, we left the car in the Black Lot and walked back to the dorms. Once there, we snagged something to eat and a couple of couches in a common room. As I drifted in and out of consciousness, catching up on sleep from the previous night, the games that we watched are kind of hazy. I remember seeing Indiana shock Iowa, diminishing the importance of our tilt against the Hawkeyes the following week. It was that much easier to focus on tonight’s game.

As we left the commons area, I stripped off my Penn State sweatshirt, under which I had been wearing a maize Michigan shirt all along. After revealing to the unwitting Nittany Lions all around me that I had been nothing more than a mole from the beginning, I became the recipient of all sorts of friendly trash talk, a phrase which here means “death threats.”

On the death march back to my car, one thing really struck me, the Penn State fans has no doubt that they would win this game. Perhaps it’s just a difference between the fan bases, but I think the general tailgating attitude in Ann Arbor is mortal fear (or this year, resignation), especially when facing a more-highly ranked team that didn’t get housed by Notre Dame (Zing!). If I could extract that excitement from their fan base without getting the asshole factor, I would certainly love to inject it into Michigan fans. There was no sense of entitlement, just excitement leading to confidence.

After arriving at the stadium (we were among the first people there, once again), I took photos of the completely empty stadium. Beaver may be one of the most minor league hockey-like venues in the conference (of course, it doesn’t hold a candle to Sparty’s eye lasers), but the facility itself is nothing short of impressive. The students started to filter in before the rest of the fans. This took place two hours before the game started. Every single one was wearing white. Are you taking notes Michigan students? Be more like that. Always.

The white-out was in full force. Again I was on the sidelines. This time, I knew I wasn’t alone. Mike, Adrian, and Alan were definitely there. Steve Breaston may have been the unsung hero of the game (as he was for much of the 2006 season). Though the defense played well, I managed to hear a spirited Ron English rip into them at halftime. They responded. Again, I was ecstatic on the drive home. This time, it was too long, and I was too tired to smile the whole way.

Blur. Iowa. Blur. Northwestern. Blur. Ball State… regretfully non-blur. Indiana. Blur.

Ohio State. The season. The national championship play-in game. #1 v. #2. Good v. Evil.

I went to Columbus on Thursday. Bo died Friday morning. I was glued to the TV all day. CNN had a birds-eye view of the charter buses pulling out of Schembechler Hall. In the dorm, Ohio State students were literally celebratin
g the death of Schmbechler, one of their own. If Woody disowned Bo (which he did publicly, but never privately), by His name, they would too. Come midnight, I watched several thousand OSU undergrads partake in their annual tradition of jumping in Mirror Lake.

That night, I couldn’t sleep. Nerves, adrenaline, anticipation. I stayed up all night. Eleven Swans literally moved me to the point of tears. Maybe I was just tired. But when I re-read it a year later, after watching a dismal, rainy beatdown in our own stadium, I cried again. If I were to read it today, I can guarantee I would cry again. Maybe the prose is just that beautiful, maybe it just recaptures my excitement from November 17, 2006, and I know now that it doesn’t have a happy ending. At that time, in that dorm room in Park Hall, I was still just a little naïve, I guess.

I “woke up” at 4AM, without having slept an instant. I was ready to go to GameDay. My cousin and her boyfriend didn’t want to get up and wait in line for something they had been to several times that year. Didn’t they realize I hadn’t had an opportunity to experience it? Didn’t they understand that this week was somehow different, more important? By 6AM I had dragged them out to the Shoe.

The actual goings-on at GameDay are of virtually no importance, except to note that, during a commercial break Chris Fowler specifically asked the OSU fans to show their class when he gave a eulogy of sorts for Bo Schembechler. Show their class they did, cheering the death of a man who had coached in Columbus for 6 years.

Several things happened after that, but let’s forget them. Forget 42-39, and the entirety of 2007. History lapses between November 18, 2006 and January 1, 2008. We can’t completely forget Utah, Notre Dame, Illinois, or Purdue. But they can’t help us now. Let’s start over, and fill in the gaps in history.

Beat the Buckeyes.

Posted under Football

God, this is going to hurt…

Michigan has been a disappointment this year without a doubt. However, their compatriots to the South have been something of a disappointment as well, though not to nearly the degree of the Wolverines. Ohio State entered the year returning nearly everyone off a team that had played for the national title the past two years, yet got destroyed in Los Angeles, and went down on their home turf to Penn State. that said, Michigan doesn’t stand a real chance…

Offense
Terrelle Pryor’s ascent took place a year earlier than expected, but take place it did. He is now the triggerman for Ohio State, and does just about everything from running to passing to just handing the ball off to Beanie Wells. Speaking of Wells, he’s done it all for Ohio State – on the rare occasion he was completely healthy. The two areas of weakness for the OSU offense are the wideouts and offensive line. The line has ranged from bad to mediocre all year, with brief forays into the area of “passable.” They are the most culpable party for each of Ohio State’s losses. Their pass blocking has improved since the USC game, helped in large part by Terrelle Pryor’s ability to move the pocket and escape pressure. However, the run blocking still leaves something to be desired, though Pryor and Beanie can make do with the holes that are opening up in front of them. The wideouts are talented but inconsistent, with problems ranging from drops to missed cuts.

Michigan’s defensive strength is the line, which should help them against OSU’s offensive weak point, the O-line. However, many schools have schemed to minimize Michigan’s advantage here (most frustratingly Toledo) with all manner of half-rollouts and quick passes, which are the strength of Pryor’s game, unfortunately. Ohio State also seems poised to attack Michigan’s weak safeties and linebackers. I’ve had nightmares for weeks thinking about the Wolverines’ poor tackling against the Buckeyes.

Defense
The Ohio State defense has been pretty good for most of the year, with a few notable exceptions. Those exceptions include USC, who simply had their way with OSU – on both sides of the ball – and teams with mobile quarterbacks, like Ohio and Illinois. Other teams have been able to move the ball on the ground against Ohio State, however. Through the air, Malcolm Jenkins and a rotating cast of nickel players have shut down opposing passing attacks.

Alas, Michigan has neither the plethora of talent that the Trojans boast, nor the mobile signal-caller of Ohio or Illinois. I don’t particularly fancy the though of Nick Sheridan slinging the ball into the teeth of that Buckeye secondary, either. This essentially boils down to Michigan’s only hope being a healthy Brandon Minor, and a host of short passes (many of them screens) and maybe a guest appearance by Justin Feagin running the zone-read. Ohio state has had their share of missed tackles this year, too, and strong running by the likes of Brandon Minor and Greg Mathews should result in some YAC.

Special Teams
This section hasn’t appeared in any previews so far this year, but the Ohio State special teams have been notable in their boom-or-bust characteristic (sounds familiar, no?). Of course, Ohio State’s ST units haven’t been as volatile as Michigan’s and have been much more heavy on the good things, like blocked punts and returns for touchdown.

Michigan’s main goal in this facet of the game is to not have a punt blocked, and not lose the ball on a return. Playing against a coach like Tressel, special teams play and changing field position should be a huge factor.

Predictions
Michigan’s only passing touchdown comes either in the first quarter or on a screen pass.
Stevie Brown intercepts a pass, but makes enough mistakes in coverage to make up for it.
Michigan keeps this one a little closer than the experts think, losing 31-17.

Posted under Football

After much scouring, we finally found a Buckeye who could converse in modern English. Our liaison to the unwashed masses of Buckeyes is Zach Meisel, a football beat writer for THE Lantern. Enjoy:

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Over the course of the year, Michigan fans have seen what the Wolverines have been offering on the field. What they may not be quite as familiar with is their counterpart down South, the Ohio State Buckeyes. Fortunately, I’ve been scouting the Bucks all year for the “Across the Border” series with Buckeye Commentary. What has each game showed us that is relevant to Saturday? Take a look:

Youngstown State
Not much, aside from serving as a stark contrast to Michigan’s opener. The two programs are starting off on a completely different plane, and a dominant performance from Ohio State puts the fear of God in Wolverines fans.

We do know that Michigan fans will probably grumble discontentedly when Terrelle Pryor does something of note against Michigan on November 22.

One area that might actually be relevant is also the offensive line of Ohio state being rather underwhelming. Presumably, however, they will cut down on penalties and other mistakes over the course of the year. Of course, there were also other occasions where the OSU line gave Boeckman about 3 weeks to throw the ball downfield. We’ll see which is more indicative of the actual quality of the offensive line when the Bucks see some better competition.

Again, there are caveats about quality of competition, but OSU was also able to harass YSU’s quarterback all day long.

Ohio
Not much, really. Again, Ohio State faced a team that was nothing like Michigan, and the level of competition was very low. Unless Beanie’s foot injury is a lot more severe than the public currently is aware (which I doubt), Michigan will not see an Ohio State team that is minus its offensive catalyst and best player.

However, the pass protection problems persist from last week. Maybe with a more reliable running threat to take some additional heat off the QB, the Buckeyes will be able to settle down and protect the passer, but for now, I wouldn’t be confident they can do this. Of course, Michigan’s offense is terrible bordering on pitiful, so it is likely that, even if Michigan finds itself with a lead in the Shoe on November 22, Jim Tressel will keep pounding away until 3rd and long. With little threat of Michigan building (or extending) a lead, Tresselball will likely be in full force for the greatest rivalry in all of sport.

The other thing noticed was the success of the Bobcats’ spread offense. Even with a backup quarterback in the game (note: still better than either of Michigan’s starting QB options), the OU offense ran pretty smoothly, carrying an upset bid into the fourth quarter. Of course, Jackson could run and not throw, and Michigan’s QBs can hardly do either. Is OSU the new Michigan in terms of inability to defend the spread? Wolverine fans are certainly hoping so. Also, they are hoping that their own offensive line stops sucking.

USC
USC gave us the blueprint for beating Ohio State: play them when they don’t have the services of their best player, and have more talent than them at nearly every position. OK, so maybe that doesn’t realistically tell the 2008 Michigan Wolverines how they can beat Ohio State, but it does show us that the Buckeyes can be beaten, and handily.

Several flaws with Ohio State’s team were accentuated: the quarterback(s), the offensive line, and to a lesser extent, the play calling. Of course, Jim Tressel always saves his most creative gameplan for the Wolverines, but if nothing else, this has given the Michigan coaching staff an idea of what buttons they can press to stress the weaknesses of Ohio State.

Troy
There are a few key notes that Michigan fans should have taken from this game:
1. Terrelle Pryor is likely to be OSU’s starter for the remainder of the year. The Wolverines had better get some practice stopping a running quarterback.
2. The Ohio State offensive line’s struggles early in the year might speak to an actual problem with the unit, rather than shaking out some early-season cobwebs.

I’m not willing to say that Michigan is likely to beat Ohio State this year, but it is starting to seem like Jim Tressel is approaching becoming a new Lloyd Carr. Letting clearly overmatched opponents stay in a game much longer than they should be, laying an egg on national TV last week with arguably his most talented team ever. Of course, some of these problems will be solved with the return of Beanie Wells, but the trajectory isn’t favorable for The Senator.

Minnesota
First things first, it tells us that the Ohio State offense is far better with Beanie in the backfield. If he can stay healthy through the entire year, OSU shouldn’t have any more struggles like they did in the three game stretch between Ohio and Troy.

It also gives us our first chance to see an opponent that Michigan and Ohio State will have in common in 2008. Sure, you can’t compare boxscores side-by-side, but you can (eventually) see who actually played a better game against the Gophers, taking all factors into account.

Still, Ohio State didn’t look overly physical yet again (though better than they did against Troy), and I wonder if they’ll snap out of it during the course of the season. If not, is it possible that they’ll lack physicality against the Wolverines, or (the more likely scenario) be a little TOO physical and aggressive, either being susceptible to misdirection or liable to commit penalties (the “Sparty, No!” syndrome, as it’s known in Ann Arbor).

Wisconsin
The Ohio State offense is much better when they have both Beanie and Pryor available. Assuming those two are in the game against Michigan, Ohio State will definitely manage to score some points. However, The Buckeyes somehow managed to score less against the Badgers than did Michigan’s dysfunctional offense, so the Buckeyes are far from unstoppable. However, given Michigan’s troubles stopping Illinois, it could be a long night when there are more talented players plugged in.

Defensively, there is going to be yardage available against Ohio State. Michigan’s weakness is in the interior offensive line, and Ohio State’s defensive tackles, while they’re pretty good, did not dominate by any means against the Badgers. The Wisconsin offense also did its best when relying on misdirection, which is essentially the cornerstone of Michigan’s offense.

Purdue
Offensively, the Buckeyes really shouldn’t worry. If the offensive line plays well one game all year, they’ll save it for Michigan. However, there is something of a disturbing trend developing here.

Defensively, the Buckeyes showed what they’re capable of doing if they play up to their potential. If they’re in peak form against the Wolverines, maybe Michigan should just punt on first down every series. Wait – then the Buckeyes might just block it for a TD

Michigan State
If last week showed us that, with a little bad luck and some inconsistency, the Buckeyes are beatable, the game against Michigan State did the exact opposite. Whereas last week the offense sputtered and a blocked punt provided the only points on the day, this week the fumble returns and such were just the icing on a particularly delicious cake in the eyes of OSU fans.

Alas, this is the effort Michigan is mo
re likely to see out of Ohio State (the Wolverines and Buckeyes always get the other’s best effort), instead of the Purdue sleeper. However, Michigan fans can look at the last two Ohio State games and see that it is indeed possible to beat the Buckeyes if they don’t show up to play.

Penn State
Though the Buckeyes have only lost two games so far, a couple teams have given a blueprint for what Michigan needs to do to beat Ohio State. First, stopping the run is paramount. Penn State and USC both did this, and it led to their success. Not letting OSU’s WRs behind the defensive secondary will give Pryor more difficult throws to make, and he has shown that he doesn’t yet have the experience to hit covered guys with regularity. Purdue was an example of Pryor’s occasional freshman struggles bringing the team down, though Ohio State’s defense and special teams still managed to win the game for them.

Of course, the offensive line is Ohio State’s key. If they put it all together for one more game this entire year, it will be against Michigan. Therefore, Michigan likely has to commit a few more guys to stopping the run, and hope that Pryor makes enough freshman mistakes to hold his offense back.

Northwestern
The Buckeye offensive line is bad (a relative term in this case, of course), and probably isn’t going to get any better this year. Michigan will provide the best defensive line Ohio State has seen since USC, or maybe Penn State. Michigan should be able to get into the backfield. However, Ohio State has had success this year because of Wells’s and Pryor’s abilities to make plays even when there are players in the backfield. Michigan has been a terrible tackling team this year. I foresee a pretty good offensive day for Ohio State.

Defensively, Ohio State has shown they are capable of shutting down unconventional offenses – though it sometimes takes them a quarter or two. All year, Michigan has shown they can score – but only in the first quarter. The Wolverines will have to pull out all the stops to get a lead early in The Game if they want to stand a chance. The Buckeyes do face their second of three consecutive shotgun-option offenses this week, however, so they may come out pre-adjusted.

Illinois
Well, considering my prediction above [ed. – OSU pounds Michigan], I don’t think Michigan stands too much of a chance in this game. However, we did learn a couple things (relevant, hopefully) about Ohio State from this game. I’m not sure how many tackles the Buckeyes will be missing against Michigan, though.

First, they are definitely susceptible to the run, especially when there’s an option look mixed in. Michigan has less talent for running that type of offense than does Illinois, but if Brandon Minor is healthy, Michigan should at least be able to move the ball a little bit.

Considering Nick Sheridan will likely start for Michigan, I expect to see something more like the offense against Utah or Northwestern (bad) than against Minnesota (good).

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