Ah, the tired maxim of the spread offense’s alleged inability to get high school prospects into the NFL strikes again:

Speaking of recruiting — in this case the negative variety — check out this quote in the Palm Beach Post from Pahokee receiver De’Joshua Johnson.

“I dropped Florida and West Virginia because of the spread offense,” Johnson said. “I don’t want to play in the spread offense. I’ve seen how it affected receivers in the NFL draft.”

Johnson is reportedly leaning to Florida State and is considering Tennessee.

For his part, Pat Dooley has a decent and brief retort, though it comes off as Florida-homer rebuttal, rather than rebutting the actual claims themselves:

He might want to check his facts.

Didn’t Percy Harvin go in the first round? Chad Jackson? Meyer has had five receivers drafted from Florida during his tenure (six if you count Cornelius Ingram), the most for any school in the nation. FSU hasn’t had a first-round skill player in seven years and two receivers taken in the draft during Meyer’s tenure. Tennessee has had three during the same span.

This is a good start, but it doesn’t really hit the point at the very crux of this matter: You are what you are. Percy Harvin didn’t get drafted where he did because of the spread offense, he got drafted because he has Size X and Skill Set Y, which the NFL interprets as NFL Potential Z. Harvin has had Size X and Skill Set Y at his disposal, and would have had them regardless of where he went to college (we can debate the minor-ish point of a different strength coach at some other school helping Harvin achieve his potential to a different degree, but that’s outside of the discussion of offense – though I’d contend that some spread schemes demand a better strength coach).

The main things that an offensive scheme will affect are:

1. Production. Depending on the type of spread, a receiver may play a larger or smaller role in the offense, affecting production. One of the the things that the NFL might look at is “Well, he has X and Y, but his production hasn’t matched that. Does he have a good excuse for this, or does he not bring it on game day?” Spread offenses are even more creative in terms of ways to get receivers the ball, in Harvin/Johnson’s specific cases.
2. Preparation. Sure, a college QB who runs exclusively from the shotgun won’t be quite as ready to play right away in the NFL, and a receiver might run fewer or different routes, and have simpler reads of defenses playing in a spread offense. These players don’t come to the NFL ready to compete on day 1, perhaps. However, I’ll let Mike Leach take this one:

“I only need a three-hour window. I’ll have a great clinic for all the NFL coaches who are so horrible that they can’t teach a guy to take a snap under center and go backwards.”

Yeah, so Mike Leach is awesome, and an offensive scheme doesn’t have a huge effect on where a player is drafted (and oddly, this is especially true for receivers, whose responsibilities probably change the least out of anyone on the offense with a spread v. pro-style offense).

Let’s take a look at every receiver drafted in the 2009 NFL Draft. I’ll vaguely lump their college offensive schemes into “spread” and “pro-style.” This may seem a bit simplistic at first, but then, isn’t the criticism of the spread offense writ large simplistic itself?

Take a look at that! 13 Receivers from spread offenses and 17 from pro-style offenses were selected, with 4 from 1-AA teams, which I didn’t include because 1) I don’t know what type of offense most 1-AA schools run, and 2) If they’re taking a guy from a 1-AA school, offensive scheme is probably not on the forefront of NFL GMs’ decisions. Considering that more schools run a pro-style offense (particularly in power conferences, from which most NFL players are likely to come), that’s not bad at all. In the first round, the same number of players from each offensive type (3 apiece). When you consider that some schools that I placed in the “pro style” category also have some elements of spread offenses, such as Ohio State, LSU, and Oregon State, it’s a complete wash, at worst. And I guess that brings me back to my main point, which is not that the spread is inherently better for a wide receiver prospect’s chances of making it to the NFL, but rather than the offensive scheme on the whole is irrelevant.

So what’s the course of action? Obviously, a 17-year-old kid didn’t come up with this (bogus) assertion by himself. No, based on reputation, and the schools entering and exiting De’Joshua’s list, this almost certainly comes from one Lane Monte Kiffin. Of course, do I expect Rich Rodriguez to bore a kid to death with charts and whatnot? Probably not, but dispelling a meme, using whatever evidence is available, will certainly help.

Posted under Analysis, Coaching, Football, Recruiting

2010 Michigan Recruiting Board goes here. There’ll be another substantive recruiting update on Monday, because I couldn’t fit all the information into this one.

The Wolverines are among the favorites for TX QB Jeremy Johnson. The same article is also posted on other schools’ Rivals affiliates with titles such as “West Virginia, Baylor among Johnson’s favorites.” With doing much further research, I would assume that is something of a top 3 for him. Remember, WVU sites were expecting him to commit to the Mountaineers at their spring game not too long ago, but he didn’t

PA QB Anthony Gonzales has been nominated to play in the US Army Bowl. This doesn’t mean he’s in the game (it’s essentially a semi-finalists list), but certainly speaks to his talent.

FL WR Kenny Shaw is blowing up this spring, and also indicating that he is probably all-but-committed to Florida State:

Shaw visited FSU unofficially last month, and wanted to pull the trigger then.

“Honestly the reason was my parents,” Shaw said. “They wanted me to wait it out, take my visits over the summer, and then make a decision after my senior year.”

With Michigan’s current stockpile of WRs in the 2010 class, it’s sad to see a talent like Shaw fall by the wayside for Michigan, but them’s the ropes, I guess.

FL WR Chris Dunkley has transferred from Royal Palm Beach High School to Pahokee. This might slightly increase Michigan’s chances for him (he’s mostly considered a Florida lock, however). Also, it gives Pahokee an awesome set of WRs with Fred Pickett, Dennis Hall, and De’Joshua Johnson already there. Speaking of Johnson, however, he’s narrowed his list of choices to 3, Florida State, Alabama, and Oklahoma State. He won’t be removed quite yet, but considering he’s stated he doesn’t want to play in a spread offense (which, lol at him, is the scheme that best fits his skill set), and is serious enough about it to eliminate Florida, he’s probably gone baby, gone.

He also dumped Michigan, which was a difficult decision since the Wolverines have three former Blue Devils on their roster and were the first team to offer Johnson.

“I’m not going to knock them, but (the spread is) why,” Johnson said. “That was my school for a while. That was my first written offer and all my teammates are up there. It would have been fun.”

Sounds like he really liked the Wolverines, so maybe Rich will be able to convince him that players in the spread can make it to the NFL (Steve Slaton, Pat White, the ever-gusty Percy Harvey).

A spring game visit to…Northwestern?… has “wowed” OH OL Christian Pace, and the Wildcats’ turnout of 3,000 fans was enough to vault them near the top of Pace’s list of favorites.

Removed PA OL Seth Betancourt. He is selecting a school today from a list of finalists that does not include Michigan. All indications are that he’ll don a Boston College hat.

The Charlotte Observer’s hideous Blogspot-hosted (lol) blog has some very nice things to say about NC DT Gabe King‘s ability to play the game of foot-ed ball. Caveats about his being a discipline case persist, but Michigan has offered and appear to be strong for him, so keep him in mind, even if you don’t think he’s worth the potential trouble at this point. Edited to reflect the correct name, because I’m apparently not fond enough of proofreading.

Florida is the leader for FL DE Lynden Trail (info in header).

Not a ton of information is available for free in this article about PA LB Jordan Paskorz, but the alt text for the image in the post is “Paskorz is favoring Michigan, Virginia and Pitt.” take that for what it’s worth.

More from the Sporting News on the faux-commitment of FL CB Travis Williams (they think it’s a real commit). Conventional wisdom, direct quotes, and logic say: He wants to commit, RR told him not to for now.

Michigan has offered FL CB Rashad Knight (info in header). He is a more highly-rated prospect than Williams, at the very least, and indications (article title: “Michigan Jumps in Front for Knight“) are that he also holds Michigan in high regard.

Has GA CB Jonathan Mincy been offered? I haven’t even heard of the kid, much less as somebody who was likely to have received a Michigan offer, but he’s now added to the board, tentatively listed without said offer.

CA CB Troy Hill says Washington is his #1 school right now (info in header). Remember, he said a while back that his interest in MIchigan was waning, so he’s teetering on the edge of removal.

Posted under Football, Recruiting

Or: How I learned to stop worrying (about size) and love the star system.

Since the dawn of the Rich Rodriguez era, there’s been a marked shift in recruiting philosophy. No, not the sudden emphasis on Central and Southern Florida. I speak of the recruitment of several tiny dudes each of the past three years who could plausibly play running back or slot receiver. The Lloyd Carr regime rarely recruited anyone under 5-9 (Mike Hart notwithstanding), and certainly not to play wide receiver. On the contrary, Carr seemed to only be interested in wideouts who were over 6-0, and preferred big guys who were 6-4 and over. Why the sudden change in philosophy? Il’l let the venerable Jim Stefani have the floor for a moment:

Lloyd was looking for big and fast RBs and WRs, kids who would fit in well into his pro-style offense and project well for the NFL.  There are only a small handful of prep players each year that met the skill set that he was looking for (big AND fast), so it was critical that he land a few of these kids every year.

RichRod, however, is looking for small and quick slot type receivers and backs who excel in space.  There are a lot more small and quick 5-7 to 5-11 slot types out there to recruit every year than there are future Braylon Edwards’s or Chris Perrys.  These kids may not project as NFL first round draft picks down the road, but they are kids who have the specific skills to succeed in RichRod’s offense because what they will be asked to do in this offense will be quite different than what the backs and receivers were asked to do playing Lloyd-ball.

So what does this mean? Rich could just grab any old guy off the street and he would perform equally as well as Percy Harvin? Of course not. However, there is something about the little guys that is more exciting (despite, perhaps, lower rankings). I think part of the reason Michigan fans fell in love with Martavious Odoms last year was not because he was an exceptional slot man, but the fact that the Wolverines hadn’t had a little guy at that position at all in so long. The concept of the slot receiver was as appealing as Odoms himself. If Michigan starts getting elite slot guys down the road, the offense could be that much more potent and exciting.

So why is Michigan now recruiting these tiny guys? As Jim said, the tiny guys are more likely to have the skill set that Michigan needs for the slot position to be effective. Good speed, exceptional quickness, and very good change of direction are all important to make plays in space. A bubble screen is only as effective as the ability of the receiver to make a guy miss, run by a guy, and get the ball down the field. Taller guys are generally less flexible (particularly in the hips – look at cornerbacks), and less able to change direction on a dime. Tall guys can be just as fast – look at Usain Bolt or Larry Fitzgerald – but lack the flexibility for this particular position.

That said, there are taller guys out there who have the skill set. These are freak athletes, like Percy Harvin, even Steve Breaston. With more height, and the same ability to run fast and change directions, evade tacklers, etc., these players are superior. They can do everything the little guys can, plus they’re able to get balls that are thrown higher, etc. These end up being your higher-rated guys. Noel Devine was a five-star, but think if he had the same skills at 6-1. He’d probably have potential to be one of the best ever.

Down the road, Michigan will probably be able to get these taller athletes with slot skills. However, that doesn’t mean that there’s no place in the offense for tiny guys.

Posted under Football, Personnel, Recruiting, Video