Coming into the 2009 recruiting season, the biggest need for Rich Rodriguez was the quarterback position. With a few QBs on the 2008 roster, but only one being a dual-threat who is capable of running his system effectively, he needed to get at least one run-pass signal caller, and preferably more. With a highly-ranked QB in Kevin Newsome, and now a second player in Shavodrick Beaver, the quarterback position is solidified, and it could become a strength if Tate Forcier were to become a Wolverine as well. Coming into the Michigan job, Roriguez also needed several slot receivers, and has seemingly recruited 7,000 of them in his time as a headman in Ann Arbor.

So with issue #1 taken care of, what is left?

The most pressing need becomes defensive ends. While most Michigan fans were banking on Detroit King’s Nick Perry to become a Wolverine, Perry had plans of his own, turning to the more attractive depth chart at USC. This left Michigan with slim pickins behind their starters, one of whom (Tim Jamison) is graduating, and the other (Brandon Graham) a potential early entry candidate for the NFL. Michigan will need players to fill this void, and as of right now, it doesn’t seem like they have a ton of great options.

The next main issue that needs to be addressed is the entire defensive backfield, but particularly safety (when was the last time Michigan landed a bigtime safety?). Isaiah Bell is a pretty speedy guy at safety (he returns kicks for his high school team), and if he doesn’t bulk up and become a linebacker, he can hopefully maintain his speed in the backfield. Justin Turner can either be a very speedy safety, or a pretty big corner (for now, I think he is more likely to stay at corner).

The biggest need once safety is addressed is (finally) something on offense. The line has been hit hard by graduation and defections. Though there is a large class coming in, Rich Rodriguez has said he likes to have 16 O-linemen on the roster, and there are currently only 14, which leaves room for 2, and possibly more if Rich Rodriguez can land some top guys.

Posted under Personnel, Recruiting

Arriving in the fall: Kenny Demens, Marcus Witherspoon, J.B. Fitzgerald, Taylor Hill.

With a fair amount of depth here, and not much at DE, someone among the linebackers who played DE in high school may start bulking up and change positions. Michigan loses a few seniors, but only one of them (Johnny Thompson) is a projected starter. In recruiting, Michigan can probably hold out for a top guy or two unless they lose a couple players to defensive end.

After a very large 2008 LB class, this isn’t a huge area of priority. Michigan can hold out for higher-level prospects.

Posted under Personnel, Recruiting

Arriving in the fall: Boubacar Cissoko (CB), JT Floyd (Nickel), Brandon Smith (SS).

A ton of safety prospects out there right now.

Michigan will like at least one super.

Posted under Personnel, Recruiting

Arriving in the fall:
Dan O’Neill, Rocko Khoury, Kurt Wermers, Ricky Barnum, Elliott Mealer, Patrick Omameh. Redshirts on the way for just about all of them except maybe O’Neill and whichever interior OL is most ready to play.

David Molk was out for most of the spring (with mono), but I think he’ll use summer camp as a springboard into a starting position. Though Michigan doesn’t lose anyone from this group, the departures of a few players mean that they are still a little thin at the position. Rodriguez likes to have around 16 linemen on the roster, and he will have 15 on the roster next year (including a couple who aren’t likely to ever have big contributions).

Not a ton of need here. They will probably be able to hold out for a couple highly-ranked guys (1-2 tackles, 1-2 interior OL).

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Arriving in the fall: Mike Martin (DT).

Michigan really needed some DEs in the 2008 class, and pulled none. They also lose three of their starting linemen to graduation, and the jury is still out on whether everyone else will stick it out.

William Campbell is a great start. Michigan might want to snag another good DT (do they have enough depth to only grab one if he’s on a higher level?)

Michigan has a ton of need here, and don’t be surprised if they grab 2 or 3.

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First things first. Our boy RJ asks:

“The stat that you always hear preseason is returning starters. How much does this stat actually predict the outcomes of a season? Just because players haven’t had game experience doesn’t mean they won’t breakout. Good starters have to come from somewhere before they start.”

Well, returning starters have two advantages over anyone else on the team:
1) They were good enough to start last year (over any seniors who may have been on the team)
2) They have in-game experience.
The first part is self-explanatory, but it is the second part that is more important. Playing experience is huge moving from high school to college because the quality of opponent and speed of the game are faster, as well as fan interaction and pressure. A guy who has played before at least knows what it is like playing before 100,000+, and has experience either channeling that out or harnessing it to his advantage. A first-time player doesn’t know what that is like.

In addition, players can break out from non starting roles (or even as freshmen). But the potential for a freshman is anywhere from 0 to 100% of what you expect. An experience player has already shown what he can do in a game, so there are fewer surprises (positively and negatively).

Question numero dos is from Sam:

“whats the deal with william campbell? he says he is committed but that he is going to go on visits? that doesnt sound like a commit to me! thanks for your answer.”

I agree with you. If a player commits, but says he is going to look around, then I don’t consider it a commit at all. Rather, it is a strong lean. Nobody is truly committed until they sign the LOI, but there are definitely degrees of commitment. A guy who won’t take any other visits and actively recruits for your team is obviously most committed with guys who tell the national services that they are “kinda committed” to the school of their choice at the other end of the spectrum.

As far as Campbell in particular, I don’t think there is much to worry about. Here is a kid from Detroit who hasn’t had a ton of opportunity to see the world. Now he is given free trips to South Beach and L.A. based on his athletic talents. Can you hold it against him for taking up those offers?

Rich Rod has said he will recruit guys to the end, regardless of commitments. While most took that to mean he wouldn’t have a problem continuing to recruit Shaw and Roundtree last year, it also applies to guys committed to the Wolverines who are still looking around. If Campbell ends up going elsewhere, it isn’t because Rodriguez was sleeping on the job.

Posted under Mail Bag, Personnel, Recruiting

Arriving in the fall:
Kevin Koger & Brandon Moore (TE), Roy Roundtree (WR), Michael Shaw (also an RB) & Terrence Robinson & Martavious Odoms (Slot). All three slots are essentially guaranteed to see PT. Roundtree might get some spot duty, along with perhaps one of the TEs (not likely). I foresee Redshirts for both TEs and Roundtree.

Clemons could be a monster in the slot, but the position is too important in this offense to have just one body there. He also has a skill set that transfers to outside receiver so he’ll likely see time at both positions. Earnly enrollee Darryl Stonum had an impressive spring, and will probably see significant PT in the fall.

This position group loses nobody except perpetually-injured tight end Mike Massey. For recruiting, they will look for a couple outside WRs and apparently 7,000 slot guys (with two potentially committed in Teric Jones and Fitzgerald Toussaint).

Michigan will need 2-3 slot guys (with 2 potentially committed already, in Teric Jones and Fitzgerald Toussaint (see RB)), and about 2 outside receivers. James Jackson seems like another slot-type guy that could potentially end up with Michigan, though he appears to be digging OSU of late. Bryce McNeal is currently the strongest shot at an outside receiver.

If Fragel were to commit, he probably wouldn’t end up at TE. Sims and Mitchell are big TEs with WR speed, though I still maintain that Sims’s best future position would be DE (where he could be an absolute terror).

Posted under Personnel, Recruiting

With spring practice finally concluded, it’s time to start looking at the team for 2008. First, the depth chart, then recruiting needs.

Here in the fall:
Justin Feagin (QB), Sam McGuffie & Michael Shaw (Speed back), Mike Cox (Power back). Feagin will almost definitely play a big role on this team, with McGuffie and Shaw getting PT as well. Look for a redshirt out of Cox.

With the new offense, things are going to get a bit confusing, because there will be some definite overlap between speed backs and slot receivers, and they currently occupy different position groups in these handy charts.

Anyway, Michigan loses nobody from this position group to graduation, though there may be some possibility for early entry (an RB that has a huge year – which isn’t all that likely) or other attrition (such as a Cone transfer). This means that the need is somewhat limited in recruiting. Michigan will need 2 quarterbacks, both dual-threat, and preferably have one of them enroll for the winter semester. They can always use more speedy guys, especially since they can double as slot receivers. It is unlikely that there will be a need for bigger running backs or fullbacks.

Michigan’s top prospect is likely Kevin Newsome, who is a near-perfect fit for the offensive scheme. He is also a pretty serious student, and is considering an early enrollment. After that, Tate Forcier and Shavodrick Beaver are the next prospects. Beaver is an explosive athlete as well, and Michigan fans would be ecstatic to gain his commitment as well. It is unlikely that Michigan will be able to convince 2 top-top guys to commit (this isn’t USC, after all), so one elite prospect (of the aforementioned group of three) and another depth player/project (perhaps Thomas Gordon from Cass Tech or Darwin Rogers from Chicago Leo) would be a realistic goal.

Both of these guys can be RB/slot players.

With two speedy guys already in the fold, Michigan may start to slow down at the RB position, unless they are projected to both be slot players. Michigan may be done, unless a top guy wants to commit. If they want a power back or MX, Hersey Jackson could be the guy, though I’m not sure there is much interest from either party.

Posted under Personnel, Recruiting

2 questions this time around. The first comes from the ever-curious RJ, and it relates to slot receivers:

What makes all these small fast guys work better in the slot? It’s seems like fast running backs are almost interchangeable with this position.

The point of the slot position is to have guys who can get the ball in space, and do something with it from there. This means making a guy or two miss, or running over a guy, or just outsprinting people to the endzone. Mismatches are the name of the game, and these speedy small guys creates a speed mismatch against linebackers and even some defensive backs.

However, the small speedy guy isn’t the only type of player who can work out in the slot. Tight ends create mismatches as well, by being bigger than safeties, and (sometimes) faster than linebackers. They are able to make things happen by being a physical force from the slot. Toney Clemons is a physical specimen with near-TE size, but good speed and shakes like a smaller player, which makes him a monster in the slot.

As far as being interchangeable with running backs, that isn’t a bad observation. A lot of slot guys were scatback-type RBs in high school, whose speed is good, but size is lacking to take the beating that a running back will get in college. A lot of Michigan’s recruits at the position can be multiple-position players.

Next question comes from an anonymous e-mailer, relating to coaching clinics:

what is the point of coaching clinics? it seems like the coaches are just giving away their secrets. i heard that michigan state even sent some scouts to michigan’s clinic. what is the benefit of these clinics?

Well, the clinics are held with an intended audience of high schools coaches. While Michigan State’s coaches may have been at the clinic, Coach Rod has always been very open with his system, and he doesn’t fear that opponents will crack the system. College coaches are always traveling to other schools to swap ideas.

So now that we know the clinics are for the benefit of high school coaches, what does Michigan get out of it? They build a rapport with the high school coaches, and happy coaches will be more likely to send their top players to colleges that they have a good relationship with. It’s one way that college coaches can make inroads in recruiting.

The clinics also help develop future talent that will be able to run Michigan’s system. Teaching the zone-read offense to high school coaches means that more high schools in the state of Michigan (and Ohio, and wherever else the coaches come from to attend the clinic) will be running this offense. This means that players will be in the right positions for a transition to Michigan, and they will be more comfortable running the system by the time they get into school. It breaks down like this: if a lot of high schools are running pro-style offenses, there will be more dropback quarterbacks, blocking fullbacks, and road-grading offensive linemen developed in the high school ranks. If a lot of high schools run the zone-read, there will be more scrambling QBs and slot receivers to come out of the high school ranks, (more) ready to play in college.

Thanks for the questions, guys. Keep sending them and I’ll keep doing my best to answer them.

Posted under Coaching, Mail Bag, Personnel

Michigan currently has 20 slots to fill for the 2009 recruiting class (9 unused in ’08, plus 11 players losing eligibility), with pretty good likelihood of that number increasing.

Current scholarship players

*Unused redshirt

Total – 76

Possible new scholarships:
Nick Sheridan
Mark Moundros
KC Lopata
Lopata and Sheridan have been granted scholarships, but the redshirt seniors will only use them for one year.

Possible early entry:
Carson Butler
Brandon Graham

Possible unrenewed 5th:
Andre Criswell
LaTerryal Savoy

Possible other departures:
Adam Patterson
David Cone
Adam Patterson
Avery Horn
Zion Babb

Update 9-4-08:
Removed Taylor Hill (transfer) and Marcus Witherspoon (non-qualifier).

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