Michigan 87, Purdue 78. And it wasn’t even that close.

The TV where I watched the game tonight had a terrible picture. The score was virtually incomprehensible all game, I couldn’t tell whether it was Laval Lucas-Perry or DeShawn Sims playing defense, and I undoubtedly missed several interpretive dances from Ed Hightower.

Somehow, that made it make more sense.

The Michigan Wolverines, losers in an embarrassing game at Iowa, in which (in my admittedly biased opinion, of course) the referees essentially decided the game with inconsistent officiating in the last minute of regulation, beat a top 25 team yet again. The Purdue Boilermakers, who escaped with a win against Michigan in their home arena thanks in part to an egregiously bad call against Manny Harris, fell to the Wolverines by a margin of 9 points, and the margin really felt much further apart. I don’t mean to make this post entirely about officiating in other games, because the Wolverines’ performance shouldn’t be diminished by focusing on things outside their control, much less those that happened days or even weeks ago.

DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris were the players we all know they can be tonight, and though Manny still wasn’t getting the calls that Michigan fans think he should be getting, the team leaders, both from Detroit (where John Beilein clearly will never be able to recruit), were able to put up big numbers against the Boilermakers and lead their team to victory. The role players, who until now have been taking turns with huge games, were able to each step up enough without any one player going ballistic from long range.

Michigan is back on the bubble, and Purdue’s chances of winning the Big Ten are reduced to basically zero. These stakes were set before the game, and Michigan was able to use the motivation to come away with a huge road win against a top-25 team, and Purdue was sent home knowing they heavily rely on Michigan State to choke in order to even have a chance to take the regular-season crown.

Posted under Basketball

Following Michigan’s official-aided choke job in Iowa City last night, the chances of this edition of the Michigan Wolverines are all but eliminated. Of course, if the Wolverines were to go on a run to end the season, taking at least 2 of the last 3 and one in the Big Ten Tournament, they would have a very legitimate argument. However, Last night’s game was considered a must-win because it was the only likely win left on the year. How did it happen?

Michigan actually got pretty good shooting throughout the first half, and in spurts during the second. When David Merritt hit two 3-pointers in one game, I thought the fates were smiling upon Michigan. Then, Manny Harris gets an egregious no-call with under a minute left, followed up with an egregiously bad call against DeShawn Sims on the rebound. Iowa is able to tie the game with free throws, and take it to overtime. Once they got there, hot shooting from them, and poor shooting from Michigan, aided in large part due to Manny Harris’s being benched (more on that later) and poor shot selection, led to a Hawkeye victory.

Officiating
I honestly don’t know what Manny Harris did to just about every referee in the Big Ten (and nation), but nobody is officiated more unfairly (at least in a negative way) than Harris. He can’t draw a blocking foul to save his life, as evidenced by perhaps the worst-called charging foul of Michigan’s season, when Iowa’s defender wasn’t even remotely close to being in position, and what should have been an and-1 for Harris turned into a 3-pointer for Iowa on the other end, keeping the Hawkeyes in the first half early. A similarly awful no-call happened near the end of regulation, where Harris was completely mugged going to the rack, and even Iowa fans were completely dumbfounded that there was no call. Compounding the incompetency of the officials, they called a horrid foul on DeShawn Sims (instead of what should have been a jump ball), effectively handing the game on a plate to Iowa.

Of course, officials aren’t perfect, and the Wolverines het their share of bad calls as well, but it’s the impact of the calls that go against Michigan that has killed us this year. The charge on Harris changed the game, because if it was called as it (quite obviously) should have been, Michigan starts turning that game into a blowout. The no-call and bad call at the end of regulation decided who would win the game, something that shouldn’t have happened. When bad calls go both ways, but the bad calls against Michigan effectively render the best player on the floor useless, it’s going to hurt one team far more than the other.

As for the “don’t whine about the officials, because the game shouldn’t have been that close in the first place” argument, that’s bullshit. Things happen that cause games to be close, even when they shouldn’t be (and let’s not forget that one call fairly early in the game likely dictated that it would be a close one). Regardless of whether the game “should” be close or not, it was. The officials, through their incompetence, then decided who would win the game. That’s unfair, either way.

Harris Benched in OT
Manny sat on the bench through the entire overtime period, leading to rampant speculation among Michigan fans and even the announce team for BTN. Nobody really knows the true answer, except it probably had something to do with a) Manny being ineffective late in regulation b) Manny saying something unwise towards John Beilein c) Manny feeling like he couldn’t contribute to the team, and/or d) Beilein feeling like Manny couldn’t contribute to the team.

Before all the armchair coaches slam Beilein for “the worst coaching decision of his career,” think about that. His career spans every single level of basketball, and multiple decades as a head coach. He knows more about basketball than any of you. He probably knows more about basketball than most of you put together. Dude knows what he’s doing, and you don’t. End of Story.

The Upshot
As mentioned above, Michigan’s bubble status has moved from “likely to be in” to “in big trouble.” The game against Purdue is one of the last chances to prove they belong, and the final two road games are important as well. This team is growing, and there is no reason to give up on them now. They weren’t expected to make the tournament when the season began (perhaps not even the postseason), so even if they fall to the NIT, I know I’ll be in Crisler Arena, cheering my ass off for them. Will You?

Minnesota and Iowa UFRs (perhaps abbreviated) coming later this week.

Posted under Basketball

Each time the Michigan basketball team loses for the remainder of the year, they inch ever closer to completely whiffing on the NCAA tournament and earning a bid to the NIT. Midway through the first half in the Ohio State game, the commentator, referring to Michigan’s dismal shooting to start the game, asked, “Is that Michigan, or is it Ohio State’s defense?” Of course, as always, the answer lies somewhere in the middle of those two answers. However, I think, for the most part, Michigan basketball’s current slide can be accounted for by the offensive performances of Michigan and their foes, moreso than either team’s defense.

It’s gotten frustrating starting games in a big deficit, then clawing back to within striking range at halftime (or shortly after, as was the case in this game), and thinking “well, when the team starts making shots, they should be able to run away with this one.” The team hasn’t started hitting those shots in almost any game. The shooting hasn’t improved too much in the last few weeks, and the games have all too often ended up with the Wolverines on the wrong side of the scoreboard.

Later in the same game, the announcer came back with another interesting quite regarding Michigan’s offense: “how easy must it be to play for a coach who’s never going to criticize your shot selection?” This is a ridiculous misrepresentation of the John Beilein philosophy. Running an offense that relies heavily on 3-pointers is in no way the same as having a coach who tells his players to shoot whenever and wherever they want. On the contrary, Beilein can often be seen screaming at a player after he takes a particularly reckless shot, and uses the unceremonious substitution as punishment for the same very often. In this game, Beilein got so angry as to earn a technical foul at one point. This isn’t a guy who’s not getting frustrated with his teeam.

So, again BJ Mullens dominated the offensive boards with putbacks, again Michigan couldn’t hit their shots, open or otherwise, and the Wolverines sulked back to Ann Arbor with their tails between their legs. The tournament is going to be a tough task now, with Michigan all-but-requiring wins against the likes of Purdue and Michigan State to make it in. Are they up to the task?

Posted under Basketball

With another big loss, this time on the road at Penn State, Michigan’s hopes of making the NCAA tournament are rapidly dwindling. I’ll save the actual bracket/schedule analysis for another day, but let’s talk about the embarrassment at the home of the Nittany Lions.

Coming into this game, Penn State appeared to be one of the few teams that Michigan actually matched up well with. No big inside presence, most of their scoring done by little guys. Of course, like the Indiana game, that meant the Nittany Lions shot the lights out, regardless of how open they were. Michigan, on the other hand, couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn (requisite Stu Douglass/Zack Novak “Hoosiers” joke here).

Originally, I thought that the great shooting for Michigan opponents in every game must have been a weird statistical anomaly. As the evidence mounts however, it’s become clear: this Wolverines squad just lets opponents make a lot of shots. I don’t really get it either, as if you watch the games, most of the shots that are going in aren’t great looks, and many of them are downright horrible. I think part of it is a confidence thing. Opponents know Michigan won’t score (the great shooting games by opponents are always matched by horrid shooting nights for Michigan), and they can throw up any shot without fear that missing it will result in points the other way. Combine that with slightly demoralized defense carrying over from the offensive side, and opponents can see defeat in Michigan’s eyes, and know they can score at will.

Speaking of Michigan’s shooting, it was god-awful this game. When DeShawn Sims doesn’t get things going inside, and neither Harris nor any one of the assortment of other guys can get to the basket, the offense basically consists of jacking up a bunch of threes. Of course, not all of these are bad looks, but this team has proven that they really can’t hit the threes unless other areas of the offense are moving as well. This team badly needs another scorer who doesnt rely solely on the three-point shot.

Manny Harris is getting very frustrated by not getting any calls, and I really can’t blame him. Did the refs have an offseason seminar where they determined that they had called too many fouls on guys guarding Manny last year? He couldn’t get a call if somebody punched him in the face. Compunding that issue is the fact that really soft fouls get called pretty much everywhere else (on both ends of the court), which Manny sees and gets more frustrated/demoralized.

And so, unless Michigan can right the ship very quickly, it’s NIT-bound very soon. Of course, based on last year, how bad is that, really? It seems like a good start to the year really caused expectations to be adjusted into the realm of “unrealistic.”

Posted under Basketball

Nice, dominating perofrmance by the Wolverines today in Crisler Arena. After struggling on the road against bottom-dweller Indiana, it was nice to see this team get its feet back under and finally dominate from start to finish in a way that they hadn’t in quite some time.

Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims were their usual sleves, for better or for worse. This time, Manny was hitting the 3-ball after his hesitation “move,” though he did brick a dunk in the first half (oops). DeShawn was money from inside the arc for most of the day (as usual), and had a few awesome rebounds (including a one-hander as he was getting fouled on the other arm). These guys are clearly the most talented guys on the team, and they showed that they can get it done in the Big Ten.

Zack Novak and CJ Lee are entirely different types of players, but each should be singled out for his effort on this day. CJ was constantly getting in passing lanes and disrupting the Iowa offense, he had a few steals, and even got a little offense of his own. Novak nails big shots left and right, but it’s the little things that really help. He puts in some of the best effort on the team, making deflections and getting rebounds despite playing the power forward position at only 6-5.

Kelvin Grayd made a layup, Eric Puls nailed a long bomb, and even Anthony Wright and Jevohn Shepherd got a bit of playing time. It was a good day. However, it is important to keep in mind that this Iowa team is not expected to finish near the top of the conference standings, and they were without one of their best players (and by far their best rebounder) today. Optimism is good, but a dominating win over a mediocre Iowa team on this day is no reason to let said optimism run wild.

Posted under Basketball

Wow. The only thing I want to do after that game is let out a sigh of relief. Michigan was down by 20 points early in the second half, but fought back against the Hoosiers for an overtime win, their first victory in Bloomington since 1995.

This game (along with Eastern Michigan and Savannah State wins) shows that, with poor enough shooting, Michigan can lose to anybody. Of course, the corollary to that is that Michigan can also beat anybody if the shots are falling (wins over UCLA and Duke). Of course, there is also a disturbing trend of letting bad teams play with them, and opposing offenses consistently shooting the lights out.

The shooting woes were attributable to several factors. Michigan hasn’t played away from home since December 20th, and haven’t played a true road game since the loss to Maryland in College Park. Several players, Manny Harris chief among them, were also settling for terrible looks early in the shot clock (I’m sure UFR will bear that out).

As far as the defense, I really don’t know enough about basketball to say “this is the reason opposing offenses can’t miss when they play Michigan.” I’m sure John Beilein does, and now it’s up to him to see if he can get that figured out and solved before it really bites this team. One of the few things I can really point to is the inability to corral defensive rebounds, which gives oponents way too many second looks.

In the end, though, it’s wins and losses that matter. Michigan was able to squeak one out today, and the NCAA tournament dream can live on.

Posted under Basketball

A few quick thoughts on last night’s game:

• Man, Anthony Wright just sucks. I’ve thought that all along, but I decided to try to trust those who know a little more basketball than I do. Unless Wright goes on a ridiculous tear sometime soon, I shall not be dissuaded.
• Early in the second half, I thought Maryland was making a run, and as long as Michigan kept it close during said run, the Wolverines would be able to pull away at the end. I was wrong. This team isn’t deep enough right now to win games like that against quality competition.
• Speaking of depth, with Laval Lucas-Perry, Michigan probably win this game. That’s definitely something to look forward to in a couple weeks. Michigan really needed another person who could test the defense of the Terps.
• Manny Harris tends to force things too often, leading to turnovers. If something isn’t there, he needs to calm down a bit and let the play develop.
• The full-court press didn’t cause any turnovers (that I can remember off the top of my head, at least), but man, did it give us hell. There were a lot of times I was surprised we managed to break half-court.
• If we had gotten a few more rebounds, the Wolverines could have won this game. Zack Gibson let so many go straight through his hands.
• I’m certainly watching the game through maize-colored lenses here, but it certainly seemed like the officiating was bad in general and… slanted… in particular. A big part of that may be the home-court advantage in college basketball, but it seemed like we got very few calls, and Maryland got a lot of really close thigns called their way.

Posted under Football

This has been a rough year for Michigan fans as streak after streak was broken, as benchmarks of sustained success were missed, as the team lost five straight games and seven of nine overall. What got to me the most was the one step forward, two steps back modus operandi of this team. It seemed as soon as one thing became effective, something else broke. So, every time I saw something that inspired hope, that hope was quickly and forcefully shattered by some mistake or failure.

Maybe it’s because I’ve been telling myself and anyone who will listen that this will work, but I have not really taken stock of how bad this season has been. Before last Saturday, Michigan had won two games by a total of 12 points and lost seven by a total of 87 points. Some of the games were competitive, but in Big Ten play I can’t really say Michigan should have won any of the games that it lost. The Wolverines were outplayed by better teams.

This was all sinking in by Saturday. I was resigned to a loss, even a blowout, against a team that Michigan has, quite literally, historically dominated. Even at half time, I figured the same old script would show itself. If this team has proven anything, it’s that it’s inconsistent. So expected the same old script: three and outs on offense; missed tackles and blown assignments on defense.

This is the first game that I’ve been excited to re-watch since the Toledo sadness happened. That was really when I lost my optimism for this team. Subsequent games made me question next year’s team. But one game made me remember why I was so excited to see this team play in August. What they lack in consistency they make up for in potential.

This offense was an absolute machine on Saturday with one quarterback who doesn’t throw well down field and one quarterback who doesn’t throw; with the worst offensive line any of us are ever likely to see; freshmen at almost every skill position; the top two running backs not playing at 100%. For the first time the offense was able to effectively counter the defense’s adjustments. In the past few games, the original script worked well, but once the defense adjusted, the offense stalled. There were a ton of new wrinkles (e.g. Feagin), some nostalgic wrinkles (e.g. the Braylon Edwards Memorial Diamond Formation), and parts of the basic the scheme that worked better this game than any game previous. This is what we have to look forward to. We got a preview of what this offense will be.

The defense, after giving up 48 points and roughly 6.82×10^23 yards against Purdue absolutely shut down an adequate if not amazing Minnesota offense. The defense was vintage Scott Shafer. The 3-3-5 stack was, as this blog and gsimmons guessed, likely and experiment designed to stop a decent running back (Kory Sheets) because there was a third string quarterback playing. The defense against Minnesota varied between 4-3, 4-3 over and 3-4 okie. The corners played up at the line both on man to man and on basic cover two. The defensive line and linebackers played well as a team and kept the running game contained very well.

My favorite part of the defensive game plan was the 3-4 Okie Chaos on passing third downs. I can’t imagine an offensive lineman or quarterback feels comfortable with 4 stand up potential blitzers moving in and out. I have to go back and look, but I don’t believe that Minnesota picked up a first down in one of these situations. Scott Shafer isn’t just a “press-man coverage and blitz” guy. He uses the threat of blitz just as well as actually blitzing.

This is what this team will become. This game proves that these guys can coach. I don’t care if Minnesota isn’t as good as advertised. The team that showed up and played could hang with most teams in the Big Ten. But when you have the youth and inexperience that Michigan has, it’s irrational to expect consistency game to game and from start to finish. After trying to revel in little victories like converting a third down or a good kick return, it’s nice to see the entire product and revel in a victory that results in win.

We caught a glimpse of what will happen, but the best part is that soon we’ll be living in the future.

Posted under Football

So, with a little more time to let this game stew, it’s time to make a few more observations.

First, what was up with the defense? It hasn’t been good this year by any means, but it has never been quite that bad. Plus, the base scheme switched from the 4-3 (or the 3-4 nickel) to a pretty standard 3-3-5 stack. I’m not sure if RR decided to go with something he was used to, since Shafer’s schemes haven’t been lighting the world on fire. The 3-3-5 has developed something of a reputation for being good against the run, but bad against the pass. On Saturday, it was subpar against each. I’m not one to rag on Shafer, as most of the defensive woes are from players being in position, but missing tackles (re-watch the game if you want to torture yourself in that department) or being otherwise John Thompson-y, but the perforfmance the other day still has me scratching my head.

Steven Threet is obviously a lot more hurt than either he or the coaching staff wants to admit. Ever since the elbow bruise, he has been alternatingly mediocre and bad. On Saturday, he was 9-21 for 123 yards. What’s more disturbing than that? He is still infinitely better than Nick Sheridan. Sheridan’s numbers would have likely been similar, except trading the two touchdowns for interceptions.

Martavious Odoms, Darryl Stonum, and Boubacar Cissoko had something of a coming out party, though Odoms had flashes of brilliance earlier in the year. Stonum’s touchdown catch-and-run was nothing short of awesome, and both Odoms and Cissoko looked more than competent returning kicks and punts.

Justin Feagin played on special teams. What is the point of holding a guy out most of the year, then switching his position and burning his redshirt? It doesn’t make much sense, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it had something to do with trick play ability in the last few games.

With Brandon Minor proving himself to be something of a competent back when he doesn’t fumble, I wonder if Sam McGuffie will see a little more time in the slot. Michigan currently has an absolute dearth of bodies at the position, and he could be useful there. I don’t think it would be a permanent change, just something to fill a gap.

I wonder how different his year could have been if we’d gotten one of the games early in the year against Utah or Notre Dame. I don’t think the team is as bad as they’ve played of late, but there confidence has shattered, and the coaches may be trying to do too much stuff, and changing things around as they scramble for wins. At this point, I don’t think Purdue is really a better team (particularly with their third-string quarterback), but Michigan is just stuck in a downward spiral that probably won’t end until next year.

Posted under Football

Going into the Michigan State game, I was not confident Michigan would win, but certainly that they could win. As it turns out, the defense laid a complete egg, and it’s back to the drawing board again. A few random observations from the weekend that was:

• The stadium atmosphere, though it was better than some games, left a whole lot to be desired. Most disturbingly, a rival’s fans got a stadium-wide cheer going in the waning moments of a victory in our stadium.
• The offense still can’t put together four full quarters, but with the defense Michigan has, there really isn’t much of an excuse to lose a game in which we score 21 points.
• The recruiting weekend didn’t go exactly as planned, but it sounds as though most of the recruits in attendance really liked Michigan – with the notable exception of DeWayne Peace. Is a decommitment looming?
• Maybe I’ve just never considered them because I’m friends with a bunch of MSU fans, and those that I typically run across are cordial enough, but MSU fans are really a special brand of pathetic.

And looking forward to Purdue:

• The Boilermakers are probably the coldest team in the conference at this point, with Wisconsin and Indiana finally cracking through this past weekend. The next closest “competitor?” Probably Michigan. Sadly, this weekend’s game is likely a battle to avoid finishing at the bottom of the conference, along with Indiana.
• QB Curtis Painter is expected to miss the game this weekend. Top backup Joey Elliott is out for the remainder of the season. That means OLSM product Justin Siller will likely start for the Boilers.
• If you ask me, Purdue is the closest thing offensively Michigan will play to Toledo (except maybe Minnesota). This might bode ill for the Michigan defense, since it’s a personnel upgrade at nearly every position (except maybe replacing a 5th-year senior QB for a redshirt freshman).
• I don’t forsee having a podcast this week.
• Michigan really needs this game. If they can get a bit of momentum going, they could probably pull off a game or two against Minnesota and Northwestern, as well.

Posted under Football