Paul: me: why did you go to state? her: i didn’t want to write an essay
Tim: eye lasers
Paul: so it begins
Paul: yakety
Tim: sparty no
Tim: sparty no x2
Paul: brian hoyer always comes through. now we’ll go 3 and out and miss the fg
Tim: I think he was down
Tim (post Minor receiving TD): really shitty call, but whatev
Paul: i take what i can get
Paul: msu fans are moving up the shitlist
Tim: yeah. they aren’t even knowledgable, which is one of the few possible redeeming qualities. im not used to cocky AND stupid.
Tim: haha one of them just threw a punch and got kicked the fuck out
Paul: connor got into a scuffle… with an m fan.
Paul: mo t: hurt or dog house?
Tim: i think they’re trying to establish something of a rotation
Tim: john thompson isn’t sucking. what alternate reality have we been temporarily transported to?
Paul: 2 minute offense? what?
Tim: in the rare game that we dont score on our first drive, we are tied at half. might there be a little more offense in the tank?
Paul: so second half like wisco or like ill/psu?
Tim: give me somewhere in between and i might be satisfied
Paul: threet can run this offense
Tim: obvs
Paul: brandon graham hates qbs
Tim: Worst kicker in the state of michigan
Paul: evil msu fg hating god?
Tim: i wouldn’t say evil if it’s msu hating
Paul: evil michigan 3rd down hating god
Paul: sparty nothe offense is not inspiring… big play is needed… M needs field position
Tim (re: 3trd quarter music): does paralyzer win this vote if we aren’t playing state? i think not
Tim: i was getting ready to tell you our 3rd down d leaves something to be desired. bg55 bailed it out
Paul: looks like he’s playing for top end draft $$
Paul: impending doom…
Tim: yeah…
Paul: and… doom
Tim: so much fucking doom
Paul: DOOM!
Paul: btw… sparty bob infiltrated the pressbox
Tim: remember the days when only sheridan threw crippling interceptions?
Paul: ohhh last week… i remember thee well.

Posted under Football

This sucks.

Rationally I knew it was likely that Michigan would lose. This isn’t a good team. The offensive line is inexperienced and constituted mainly of middling recruits. The wide receivers included James Rogers and Zion Babb. A ton of the big contributors are injured or nicked up.

There’s a brand new offense that’s different, scary and wildly inconsistent. The defense is having growing pains learning a new scheme. Sometimes they look amazing, and other times they look confused.

There’s no reason to expect big things. Hume disproved the principle of the uniformity of nature. Just because Michigan has been consistently good does not guarantee that Michigan will be good in the future.

I know Rich Rodriguez will mold this team into a something amazing. He is a winner everywhere he goes. Michigan has a great base and program to support the team. All evidence points to greener fields ahead. The 2009 class (as of now) looks to be elite. The 2010 class will likely be better. Something good is around the corner.

Sparty tried to give Michigan the game. They did not play well. They left a ton of points on the field. Michigan got a very dubious call in their favor (how the Hell was Minor in bounds?). Michigan is just not good enough to capitalize. Rationally I know this season shouldn’t be evaluated in wins and losses. Michigan fans need to take their medecine and look forward to the future.

But irrationally, this sucks.

Posted under Football

What can I say about the Penn State game? It reinforced several things that we already knew about Michigan, in addition to some other stuff:

• The offense isn’t simply bad, it’s inconsistent. It can be very bad much of the time, and it can also produce effective drives some of the time. The lack of experience is resulting in the evil side of the offense being apparent more than the good side.
• Nick Sheridan is not very good at the footballs. By all accounts he’s a good kid, but he’s not Division-I material.
• I had forgotten how bad Penn State fans were. They vault back up to #2 in my “biggest assholes in the conference” unofficial rankings, surpassing Wisconsin.
• Minor looked pretty good, and I think that he’s likely your primary starter for the short-term future, as a strong runner is necessary when the standard running play is “go into the teeth of the defense with only nominal assistance from your offensive line.”
• The defense still needs to step up. The big play has become something of a habit. I know Penn State is far and away the best team we’ve seen so far this year, but the defense has to be able to at least slow them down.
• That said, I’m not huge on all this Shafer hate that is going around. I think Shafer is hamstrung by some of the personnel, and maybe even the position coaches he has to work with.
• Not sure when I’ll get around to making an FNL. Hopefully tonight, though.

And on to Michigan State:

• In case you missed it (since I accidentally posted it at midnight), here is the post I wrote about the previous times Rodriguez and Dantonio have faced off. Obviously, neither team is the same, but it’s at least interesting to see.
• Steve Threet and Brian Hoyer are both supposed to start this weekend. God help us if Threet can’t play.
• I see Michigan State as a Wisconsin analogue more than anything. Wisconsin is the only team we’ve beaten so far this year, so at least there’s hope.

Posted under Football

The game in text messages…

Tim: oh fuck
Paul: we can spot the rockets 7… right?
Tim: if we cant… kill me.
Paul: after this drive, ill decide whether to prep the CN^4
Paul: is warren dinged up? and finally the minor seam works
Tim: hes been near hurt most of the season
Paul: also… michigan fans really, really, really, really suck
Tim: they are sub sufficient
Paul: ive caled one a dumbass and argued with about 3 more
Paul: im going to get in a fight with someobne. its inevitabl. why wouldn’t you run on 2nd and 20 with 10 secs left?
Paul: so you try a bomb with a qb who has already thrown one pick6 and tried to throw another?
Tim: toe fuckledo
Paul: ruck the fockets!
Paul: and we got rick roll’d
Tim: obvs. kill me now
Paul: is it better than the m offense has scored all 17 points this game?
Tim: better, yet simultaneously much, much worse. i think.
Paul: they’ve only scored 3 on the michigan defense
Tim: they are also toledo. im just sayin
Paul: omg! first down! fire shaffer!
Nate: it is sad. for the world
Tim: remember how sheridan is terrible? shit…
Paul: sheridamnit?
Tim: pretty much
Paul: CONER!!!
Tim: put in the competent qb plz
Paul: i wouldn’t mind seeing threet, odoms, mathews, warren, and/or graham
Paul:this seems eerily similar to appy. except both teams are much worse
Tim: remember how sheridan suxzzz? me2.
Paul: hes like pat white with a much worse arm/less running ability/no melanin and better hair
Tim: way better hair. unfortunately, hair != skill
Paul: id take opelt :(
Paul: mind lasers. please. we need an inexplicable mistake on their part
Tim: tom hammond save us all
Paul: all hail hammond! & zoltan…
Paul: mmb should learn yakety sax
Tim: no but we’re srsly going to lose to fuckin toledo
Paul: ast time you said that we lost to appy! jinxer!
Paul: i think this proves sheridan to clemons is not effective
Tim: sheridan to X is generally terrible. mostly on account of the sheridan factor
Paul: bye bye motor city bowl
Tim: i might puke
Paul: can we pretend toledo is in CUSA or something?
Tim: beat the fucking nittany lions
Tim: maybe we can win the tears of infinite sadness award this week.

Posted under Analysis

Round 2.

The Situation
Illinois leads Michigan, 31-20 with about 9 minutes left in the game. After starting strong, the Michigan offense has sputtered, but finally got back on the board on its last drive. In spite of a questionable pass interference call on John Thompson, Michigan has Illinois in a 3rd-and-2 situation on their own 49 yard line. A stop here could help continue Wolverine momentum, and give the Wolverines a chance to get back into the game.

The Personnel and Formation

Illinois comes out in a 3-wide spread set, with a tight end on the right side of the line. Two wideouts are to the left. Isiah Williams is in the shotgun, with Daniel Dufrene lined up as the running back to his left. Michigan’s base 3-4 has a linebacker (John Thompson) on the line to the slot receiver side. Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are centered over the line, which consists of the standard starters (Graham, Taylor, Johnson, and Jamison). The secondary is composed of Brandon Harrison, Stevie Brown, Donovan Warren, and Morgan Trent.

The Play

Juice Williams runs a quarterback draw, running right into the heart of Michigan’s strong defensive line. This should be a stop by Michigan, but Williams manages to scamper 50 yards down the field, before he is run down from behind by Stevie Brown at the 1 yard line. Michigan’s defensive play is a blitz of the weakside of the formation by Thompson, with the line clogging things up and the other two linebackers playing the run. The secondary mans up on the receivers.

Why it Worked
Brandon Graham and Jonas Mouton seem to both be to blame for Juice getting loose (damnit, I was going to avoid saying that). Michigan’s defensive play seems to be for the defensive line to plug up the middle, with the linebackers freed up to make plays near the line of scrimmage. Graham gets greedy, however, and gives up his inside position when it appears that Juice will try to go around the edge. This frees up a gap for Williams to head through. Mouton should be there, but he was also fooled by Juice, and has rushed to the outside to play contain. However, it appears as though his responsibility was not contain, as Brandon Harrison has filled the same gap. Mouton and Graham were both supposed to be in position to stop Juice here, and considering that neither was, it’s easy to see why he got free.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis, Video

The Situation
Michigan leads Illinois 14-10 with about 11 minutes remaining in the second quarter. The Illini have the ball in a 2nd-and-10 situation on their own 43 yard line. Michigan’s offense has been clicking early in the game, and a big stop on Illinois’s potential go-ahead drive would sustain the Wolverine momentum, and possibly springboard another Michigan scoring drive.

The Personnel and Formation

Illinois comes out in a 3-wide spread set, with a tight end on the right side of the line. Two wideouts are to the left. Isiah Williams is in the shotgun, with Daniel Dufrene lined up as the running back to his left. Michigan is running out of its 3-4 Okie nickel package. The corners are playing off, and Charles Stewart is the high safety along with Brandon Harrison. Stevie Brown, Jonas Mouton, Obi Ezeh, and John Thompson are the linebackers. Mike Martin is the pass-rushing DT.

The Play

Michigan is in a cover-3, with both OLBs blitzing. At the snap, John Thompson blitzes, allowing Daniel Dufrene to run right by him. This is unfortunate for Thompson and the Michigan defense at large, as this play is a designed screen (not quite a swing pass, as The Davids – ESPN’s shittiest new announce team – state). Williams lofts the ball over Thompson’s head, and Dufrene makes the catch. He follows his screen blockers, breaks a couple early tackle attempts, and outruns the Wolverines to the endzone.

Why it Worked
John Thompson is the major culpable party in Illinois’s success on this play. In Shafer’s scheme, he is designated to blitz on this play, but has the responsibility to “hug up” on Dufrene if he leaks out of the backfield. It is plain to see Thompson realizes his mistake, as he has an “oh shit” moment, and turns around when he realizes Dufrene has passed him.

This was an effective play call against a blitz, and of course the responsibilities of the blitzers are supposed to compensate for this. Thompson’s fuckup amplified the effectiveness of the playcall.

It’s hard to fault him too much, since he was making sure there weren’t huge cutback lanes in the secondary, but Donovan Warren starts off this play taking a terrible angle. He almost manages to still catch up with Dufrene, and had he taken a better angle, might have stopped this 5-10 yards short of the endzone.

Now you know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Analysis, Video

There were problems with fumbling again, but the first one was by Brandon Minor, which can be chalked up to his being Brandon Minor, one came from a freshman (Michael Shaw) coming off injury, and the rest came late in the game when players were trying too hard to make something happen. After the last few weeks, maybe this is disturbing because the fumbles are continuing to happen, but this time, they didn’t really decide the game (as they did against Notre Dame, and could have last week against the Badgers).

The defense was not very good. Unless they step up their play, Daryll Clark is going to have a field day in a couple of weeks. Fortunately, I think some of the real problems are correctable:

• Tackling. This hasn’t been an issue so far this year, so hopefully the poor physicality and tackling effort this week was more of an anomaly than anything.
• Charles Stewart. Man, if you’re going to play the ball instead of the man when you’re the only guy between him and the endzone, you’ve got to leave your feet to prevent him from making the catch. Running past a guy while waving your arms and getting almost there isn’t going to cut it.
• Disciplined play. On Juice’s long near-touchdown run, Brandon Graham, Jonas Mouton, and Brandon Harrison all took the outside (contain) assignment. At least one guy (Graham) and probably a second (Mouton) was supposed to be plugging the inside. This was, at least hopefully, a case of players getting frustrated, and trying to do too much to make a play. They will definitely get chewed out by Shafer, and hopefully not be in a position where they have to force plays late in the game again.
• Pressure and contain. The defense could usually get one, but at the expense of the other. I’d bet a small part of this is being tired from the emotional win last week.
• Stevie Brown. He didn’t do anything egregiously wrong this week, but I wouldn’t be a Michigan fan if I wasn’t bitching about him, now would I?

Steve Threet was his typical hot-and-cold self. I think when he’s in rhythm, he’s very good. However, if he isn’t in rhythm, the results can be ugly. If he gets knocked out of rhythm during the game, as we saw against the Illini, it is very hard for him to snap back into form. Part of this is his youth. Part of it is the offensive line putting him in a difficult situation or two.

Martavious Odoms continues to have some struggles running precise routes, or at the very least getting on the same page as Threet. Chalk this up to inexperience. Once he’s been in this offense a year or so, Odoms should be a super-entertaining player to watch.

Just like the past few weeks, this game showed why this team is going to be exciting to watch in the near future, but frustrating to watch right now.

Posted under Analysis

As Paul did last week, I’ll post our text message log, to capture the essence of our thoughts during the game. For the record, Paul was at the game, and I was watching on TV.

Tim to Paul 5:06 pm: be louder
Paul to Tim 6:21 pm: opposite of wisconsin game?
Tim to Paul: yeah so we kind of suck. the fans have been quiet as shit all second half, btw
Paul to Tim: theyre leaving and we need a big play to get the crowd into it
Tim to Paul: theres a td at least… maybe
Paul to Tim: eventually. fingers crossed
Paul to Tim: does gingell wear 84 now?
Tim to Paul: no kidding. kc has been bad to terrible all day. hes been bailed out by the earlier blocked pat still going in
Paul to Tim: is it just kc? snap? hold? line?
Tim to Paul: i didn’t see anything bad w/ them
Paul to Tim 6:41 pm: :(
Tim to Paul: no joke
Paul to Tim: NOW we knock out juice…
Paul to Tim 6:50 pm: i guess before wisco i said id be happy with 1 of 2
Tim to Paul: truth. beat the rockets
Tim to Paul 7:05 pm: yay, lets get threet hurt
Paul to Tim: ehh… the players didnt quit last week. i feel he had to.

More substantive postgame post coming up in a little bit.

Posted under Analysis

Since I let Paul’s post stand on its own after the game Saturday, here are a few things I’d like to add:

Posted under Analysis, Coaching

With the Michigan Wolverines not playing this week, there is little to talk about, so let’s take a moment to revisit my preseason predictions. Of course, I said very few binding things before the season, so we’ll adjust preseason expectations for the remainder of the season, and see where I went wrong at the beginning of the year.

Looking Back:

Utah
The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah’s will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it’s strength against strength as Michigan’s potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah’s D may score once or twice itself.
Prediction: Tossup

Utah’s D didn’t score, but Michigan’s defense was not as strong as expected. I thought Michigan’s offense wouldn’t be very good, but not as bad as it proved to be.

Miami
Miami’s linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn’t come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines’ D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win.
Prediction: Victory

Michigan did indeed pull off a victory on the strength of their defense. The offense looked like it was getting a rhythm going early in the game, but the flow was halted, and the offensive output was far from optimal.

Notre Dame
2008 is Michigan’s turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame’s effort from last year. Jon Tenuta’s blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn’t be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful ’05 and ’06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents… note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense?
Prediction: Tossup

Michigan’s inability to hold onto the ball was the main disappointment here. Jimmy Clausen was indeed improved, enough to capitalize on several short fields afforded by the likes of Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw. Michigan was finally able to get an offensive rhythm going, however, though it didn’t show up on the scoreboard because of all the turnovers.

Looking Forward
Since these games haven’t happened yet, my predictions haven’t become relevant, though I will leave in the Wisconsin prognostication, as we shall see soon enough how close it is to reality.

Wisconsin
The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW’s pass defense doesn’t improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan’s D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn’t prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down.
Prediction: Loss

Perhaps Michigan’s second-biggest disappointment from the Notre Dame game was slowing down the power running attack that the Irish implemented. Wisconsin is the posterboy for that offensive scheme, so the Badgers should have some success, unless the UM linebacking corps can rebound in tremendous fashion. Offensively, the Wolverines started putting it together last week, though Wisconsin’s defense is likely to be more formidable than the Irish were. Still, I have enough confidence to upgrade this one ever-so-slightly to tossup.

Illinois
Prediction: Tossup

I still think Illinois is in a slight rebuilding year after losing their best player on each side of the ball. Juice has looked erratic at times, and good at others. This should be a chance for Michigan to get a statement win.

Toledo
Prediction: Victory

Michigan is undefeated against the MAC, and don’t let the records fool you: Miami was a better team than Toledo is.

Penn State
Prediction: Loss

When I first wrote the preview, I thought Penn State was a probable loss on the verge of a tossup. After seeing both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines in action this season, it’s looking more like a definite loss on the verge of a blowout.

Michigan State
Prediction: Tossup

I still have yet to be impressed by the Spartans. Their loss was to a Cal team that got run off the field by a downright bad Maryland squad, and Javon Ringer is the only MSU player who has looked impressive thus far.

Purdue
Prediction: Victory

Purdue was competitive against Oregon, so maybe I should downgrade this one to a tossup. Still, the Boilers’ offense wasn’t particularly impressive agaisnt a good defense, so the jury is still out on Purdue.

Minnesota
Prediction: Victory

Minnesota has looked better than expected, but the Gophers have a long way to go (and the schedule will only get tougher from here).

Northwestern
Prediction: Victory

After seeing NU play this year, I will downgrade them from a victory to a tossup, though with the game in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan offense presumably continuing its progression, MIchigan still might be able to come away with a win.

Ohio State
Prediction: Pain

Ohio State certainly looked beatable against USC. However, if Beanie Wells plays two games this year, they will be the contests against Young
stown State and Michigan. With Wells in the backfield, and Pryor presumably playing a bigger role as the year goes on, Ohio State is a cut above Michigan. The weak OSU offensive line provides a glimmer of hope, but the downgrade on this game goes only to “defeat.”

And…?
If my preseason prediction of a 7-5 season is to come true, Michigan needs to finish the year with a 6-3 record. With losses coming against Penn State and Ohio State, and wins against Toledo and Minnesota, the Wolverines will have to go 4-1 against a slate of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern. The best I see Michigan going is 3-2, and even that might be something of a stretch.

Posted under Analysis